Geopolitics of global climate change and energy security

Currently,the problem of climate change is already far beyond the category of scientific research,and it affects the economic operation mode,interests pattern,and geographical relationships and becomes the focus of global governance.During the transition period of the international economic and social development and the critical transformation period of the world geopolitical pattern reorganization,China’s industrialization is still at the intermediate stage,and tackling with climate change is also China’s internal demand under this development stage.With more influence of climate change on national competitiveness,climate change and geopolitics present complex multiple relations,and climate change in the era of geopolitical landscape gradually affected the national strategy and diplomacy.This article offered some relevant suggestions based on evaluating the new geopolitical characteristics of climate change:(1)weighing of interests and properly handling the complex relations among major powers during international climate negotiations;(2)strengthening risk judgments and actively cooperating with the United States and the European Union on energy and climate change;(3)relying on the"One Belt(Silk Road Economic Belt)and One Road(twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road)"to ensure China’s energy security and actively participating in the global energy governance;(4)strengthening the"south-south cooperation"mechanism innovation and increasing the investment.     

Energy revolution:for a sustainable future

The discovery and use of fossil fuels have not only helped the evolution of human society from agricultural civilization to industrial civilization,but also caused serious environmental and climate problems.The earth is calling for a sustainable future,and a change from industrial civilization to ecological civilization based on the new"energy revolution".A macroscopic quantitative analysis of China’s environmental capacity and climate capacity shows that China is in urgent need of changing the extensive developing mode and having an energy revolution.It is foreseeable that fossil fuels will remain the most consumed source of energies in China now and in the next few decades.Although the efficient and clean use of fossil fuels are very important,this is not an energy revolution or the fundamental solution to environmental and climate problems.Unconventional gases including shale gas play an important role in the mitigation of environmental problems and climate change,but"shale gas revolution"or"shale gas era"is not suitable to China since the proportion of natural gas in primary energy structure in China can only be increased by a maximum of 20%.The transition of Chinese energy structure from fossil-fuels-dominating stage to multiple-energy-sources stage and then to a nonfossil-fuels-dominating stage is the inevitable future,with the help of great contribution from renewable energy and nuclear energy.Among renewable energies,the proportion of non-hydro renewable energies will gradually increase.Improvement of their market competitiveness(economic efficiency)relies on technological innovation.Renewable energies will be the main energy source for the earth in future.Despite the impact of the Fukushima nuclear disaster,the whole world,including China,will not give up nuclear energy development.Safe,steady,and large-scale development of nuclear power is a rational choice of China.Transition from nuclear fission power plant to nuclear fusion power plant is the inevitable future.Nuclear energy will be a sustainable energy source and another main energy source of the earth in future.China needs to enhance energy security consciousness,promote energy saving,and change the energy supply-demand patterns,that is the transition from"meet a too-fast-growing demand with an extensive supply"to"meet a reasonable demand with a rational supply".All countries need to work together to address global environmental problems and climate change.Energy revolution is the foundation for a sustainable future.With a wide range of international cooperation,the win-win cooperation is the only way of overcoming these challenges.     

Sustainability science: the changing landscape of sustainability research

Sustainability science is a rapidly expanding field, particularly given the current ecological crises facing many parts of the globe today. To generate a snapshot of the state of sustainability science, we analyzed the current status of sustainability research using citation and text analysis. By reflecting social needs on sustainability science and the increasing number of publications in this field, the landscape is expected to change during the last decade. Our results indicate that previously separated research clusters investigating discipline-focused issues are becoming integrated into those studying coupled systems. We also found the existence of hub clusters bridging different clusters like socio-ecological systems and transition management. We also observed a variety of other emerging research clusters, especially in energy issues, technologies, and systems. Overall, our analysis suggests that sustainability science is a rapidly expanding and diversifying field, which has affected many disparate scientific disciplines and has the potential to feed scientific understanding on socio-ecological systems and to drive society toward transition for sustainability.     

Reconstituting “America”: The Clean Energy Economy Ventriloquized

With the foregrounding of “clean energy” policies by climate change concerns, the rhetorical constitution of “America” as a collective subject, mobilized to adopt the clean energy economy (CEE), becomes crucial. Here, I analyze the constitutive rhetoric of Pew Charitable Trusts’ landmark 2009 report on the CEE, drawing from the ventriloqual perspective to communication. I argue that this approach provides a more pragmatic, conversational understanding of the interpellative process constituting “America,” noting it to be hybridized and composed of various human and nonhuman agents. Tracing the ingoing interaction among agents—some manifest in the text, others spectral—sheds light on the complex relations of power at stake, recognizes the open-ended possibilities (and restrictions) of agency, and the role of material structures shaping environmental communication and policy.     

Climate Communications: Conflicts and Opportunities

The occasion for this forum was sparked by a front-page story in the New York Times by John M. Broder entitled, “Seeking to Save the Planet, with a Thesaurus” (May 1, 2009, p. A11). The article focused on the non-profit EcoAmerica's report, “Climate and Energy Truths: Our Common Future,” which shares research on communication approaches to engaging climate change and energy issues. The Broder article included commentary from Robert J. Brulle, Professor of Sociology and Environmental Science at Drexel University. In response, George P. Lakoff, Professor of Cognitive Science and Linguistics at UC-Berkeley, published an essay in The Huffington Post, “Why Environmental Understanding, or ‘Framing,’ Matters: An Evaluation of the EcoAmerica Summary Report” (May 19, 2009). The discussion about this report and differing approaches to environmental communication continued on blogs, in emails, and through various other forums. The editorial leadership team of this journal thought such prominent attention to environmental communication in the nexus of so many disciplines and professional investments was exciting. We are pleased the following scholars and practitioners are willing to elaborate on the stakes of this discussion in this forum.     

Pathway and policy analysis to China’s deep decarbonization

The Paris Agreement marks the beginning of a new era in the global response to climate change, which further clarifies the long-term goal and underlines the urgency addressing climate change. For China, promoting the decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions as soon as possible is not only the core task of achieving the medium- and long-term goals and strategies to address climate change, but also the inevitable requirement for ensuring the sustainable development of economy and society. Based on the analysis of the historical trends of the economy and social development, as well as society, energy consumption, and key end-use sectors in China, this paper studies the deep carbon emission reduction potential of carbon emission of in energy, industry, building, and transportation and other sectors with “bottom-up” modeling analysis and proposes a medium- and long-term deep decarbonization pathway based on key technologies’ mitigation potentials for China. It is found that under deep decarbonization pathway, China will successfully realize the goals set in China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions of achieving carbon emissions peak around 2030 and lowering carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 60–65% from the 2005 level. From 2030 onward, the development of nonfossil energy will further accelerates, and the share of nonfossil energies in primary energy will amounts to about 44% by 2050. Combined with the acceleration of low-carbon transformation in end-use sectors including industry, building, and transportation, the carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 will fall to the level before 2005, and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will decreases by more than 90% from the 2005 level. To ensure the realization of the deep decarbonization pathway, this paper puts forward policy recommendations from four perspectives, including intensifying the total carbon dioxide emissions cap and strengthening the related institutional systems and regulations, improving the incentive policies for industrial low-carbon development, enhancing the role of the market mechanism, and advocating low-carbon life and consumption patterns.     

“Stop Blaming the Cows!”: How Livestock Production is Legitimized in Everyday Discourse on Facebook

In 2016, Swedish climate reporting declined in quantity and shifted focus somewhat from climate change as such to the harmful climate impacts of meat consumption. The latter prompted discussions in social media—an increasingly important forum for public debate but infrequently studied in environmental communication research. Despite strong evidence that a meat and dairy-based diet is harmful for the environment, meat consumption is increasing, and this qualitative study aims to—through the lens of social representation theory—contribute knowledge about how livestock production is legitimized in everyday discourse on Facebook. The article identifies representations that legitimize livestock production through polarization between (1) livestock production and other (environmental) issues, (2) environmentally “good” and “bad” countries, and (3) “reliable” and “unreliable” information. It concludes by discussing the influence of national ideology on the legitimization of livestock production and the potential of social media to counter the post-politicization of environmental issues.     

Quoting “the Environment”: Touchstones on Earth

Media influence public awareness through agenda setting and framing of news by selecting what is published, how frequently and through what frames. This content analysis compares portrayals of climate change based on political ideology of the media. It examines daily coverage of climate change in Santiago, Chile by the conservative, El Mercurio, newspaper, and the liberal, La Nación. Twenty percent of the 1,628 articles published in 2003, 2005, and 2007 which included the words “cambio climático” (climate change) or “calentamiento global” (global warming) were analyzed for frequency, content, images, and frames. The liberal newspaper published twice as many articles that were twice as long, with four times as many illustrations about climate change. They presented more thematic and diverse frames than the conservative newspaper. Government sources and conflict frames dominated both newspapers, reflecting some similar maturation processes of climate change coverage found in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere.     

Media and Climate Change: Four Long-standing Research Challenges Revisited

This paper suggests some further avenues of empirical and theoretical investigation for media research on climate change. “Old” suggestions, whose significance, as we see it, needs to be further reinforced, are included, as are “new” ones, which we hope will generate innovative research questions. In order to integrate the analysis with knowledge generated by media research at large, we revisit four research challenges that media scholars have long grappled with in the investigation of journalism: (1) the discursive challenge, i.e. the production, content and reception of media discourse; (2) the interdisciplinary challenge, i.e. how media research might engage in productive collaboration with other disciplines; (3) the international challenge, i.e. how to achieve a more diverse and complex understanding of news reporting globally; and (4) the practical challenge, i.e. how to reduce the theory–practice divide in media research.     

Dividing and Uniting Through Naming: The Case of North Carolina's Sea-Level-Rise Policy

Opponents of a proposed sea-level-rise policy in North Carolina, USA, reasoned rhetorically to promote a narrative claiming that the policy supporters’ efforts had failed to meet the criteria of “good” science and the American dream expectancy of “progress.” The critics worked to hinder policy adoption by naming as “villains” scientists who provided research to support the proposed policy. In addition, the opponents named their own efforts to prevent policy based on “bad” science that would “destroy” the American dream as “heroic.” To more effectively respond to such narratives, scientists and policy proponents need to shift away from reporting just climate change “facts” in the attempt to gain stakeholder support for mitigation and adaptation initiatives. They need to move toward reasoning rhetorically to construct narratives that encourage the public to name them as the “heroes” who will achieve the American dream by their actions to mitigate climate-change outcomes.     

Psychological Reactance From Reading Basic Facts on Climate Change: The Role of Prior Views and Political Identification

Scholars continue to search for solutions to shift climate change skeptics’ views on climate science and policy. However, research has shown that certain audiences are resistant to change regarding environmental issues. To explore this issue further, we examine the presence of reactance among different audiences in response to simple, yet prominently used, climate change messages. Our results show that emphasizing the scientific consensus of climate change produces reactance, but only among people who question the existence of climate change. Moreover, adding political identification to the model as an additional moderating variable shows the increases in reactance occur among Republicans who question the existence of climate change. Finally, our results show that reactance to climate change messaging may lead to backfiring effects on important outcomes tied to climate change such as risk perceptions, climate change beliefs, and support for mitigation policies.     

Overcoming Endpoint Bias in Climate Change Communication: The Case of Arctic Sea Ice Trends

Unusually cold winters, a slowing in upward global temperatures, or an increase in Arctic sea ice extent are often falsely cast as here-and-now disconfirmation of the scientific consensus on climate change. Such conclusions are examples of “end point bias,” the well documented psychological tendency to interpret a recent short-term fluctuation as a reversal of a long-term trend. End point bias poses a challenge to those trying to communicate cross-decade climate warming trends. In this study, we demonstrate that exposure to misleading scientific information on FoxNews.com that evokes end point bias can affect the beliefs of liberals and moderates as well as conservatives. We also show that the leveraging-involving-visualizing-analogizing communication model can reduce the effects of endpoint bias among moderates and liberals at the same time as it dampens both the ideological and endpoint biasing of conservatives.     

Blogging about Climate Change in Russia: Activism,Scepticism and Conspiracies

The article explores the new media’s role in climate change communication in Russia. By providing an open space for the expression of very diverse points of view, the internet creates a substitute media reality where both climate activists and climate sceptics can question the established discourse. Analysis of 374 entries published on the LiveJournal blogging platform has resulted in the identification of four discursive categories: “conspiracies of climate change,” “climate change impact,” “political games of climate change” and “online (anti-)environmentalism.” Each category demonstrates how the same topic can be framed in very different ways depending on bloggers’ worldview rather than the nature of the discussed environmental problem. The findings also show that the blogs act as “echo-chambers” for both climate deniers and climate activists reinforcing their behold beliefs. Finally, the analysis discovers some parallels with the traditional media coverage in their minimal critique of Russian state policy on climate.     

汉江流域1956~2016年汛期降水时空演变格局

基于汉江流域96个雨量站点1956~2016年长系列降水数据，采用数理统计法诊断了汉江流域汛期降水时空演变特征。研究发现汉江流域汛期面平均降水历年总体变化趋势不显著，但在1989年存在较强跳跃性，并伴随有22 a、8 a和3 a主周期震荡；受流域气候及地形影响，流域汛期降水空间分布不均。流域上游西南区和汉江下游等地常成降水中心，易形成“辐射型”、“南北型”和“东北-西南型”3种空间分布模态，方差贡献率分别为41.1%、12.4%和7.6%；近年来流域西南部汉中、安康、神农架地区及汉江下游天门、仙桃一带局地降水显著上升，流域东北部商州、凤镇一带及唐白河流域局地降水显著下降，汛期降水“东北-西南型”分布模态日渐走强。流域降水时空分布及演变特性直接关系到流域水资源合理开发与利用，进一步加深了对汉江流域降水要素变化规律的认识，研究成果对流域洪涝灾害应对、雨洪资源利用及水资源优化配置具有参考借鉴价值。     

Institutional capacity for long-term climate change adaptation: evidence from land use planning in Albay,Philippines

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA) into plans and programs is still a new approach in adaptation and thus there is limited information on how to operationalize it on-ground. This paper addresses this gap by investigating the challenges in mainstreaming CCA into the local land use plans in the province of Albay, Philippines. Specifically, this paper developed 20 quantitative “mainstreaming indicators” to assess the state-of-play and the challenges for local mainstreaming. These indicators were classified under three groupings, namely, the information, institutional, and resource capacities of systems. Qualitative analysis of the indicator scores suggested that developing the institutional capacities of local governments is crucial in the local mainstreaming process. Likewise, the results highlighted the “institutional issues” indicator as the primary barrier in operationalizing the approach. These institutional issues are: fragmented laws and regulations; overlapping policy requirements; and the lack of guidelines for mainstreaming CCA into the local land use plans. Meanwhile, the “leadership” indicator, as signified by a climate change champion in Albay, was evaluated as an opportunity for local mainstreaming. The champion effectively led the CCA efforts because the existing institutional mechanisms supported the champion’s capacity to influence the behavior of people and produce collective action towards CCA.     

Examining User Comments for Deliberative Democracy: A Corpus-driven Analysis of the Climate Change Debate Online

The public perception of climate change is characterized by heterogeneity, even polarization. Deliberative discussion is regarded by some as key to overcoming polarization and engaging various publics with the complex issue of climate change. In this context, online engagement with news stories is seen as a space for a new “deliberative democratic potential” to emerge. This article examines aspects of deliberation in user comment threads in response to articles on climate change taken from the Guardian. “Deliberation” is understood through the concepts “reciprocity”, “topicality”, and “argumentation”. We demonstrate how corpus analysis can be used to examine the ways in which online debates around climate change may create or deny opportunities for multiple voices and deliberation. Results show that whilst some aspects of online discourse discourage alternative viewpoints and demonstrate “incivility”, user comments also show potential for engaging in dialog, and for high levels of interaction.     

Energy Futures: Five Dilemmas of the Practice of Anticipatory Governance

Public participation has become standard practice in both environmental communication and science and technology studies, with such engagement increasingly moving “upstream” to the early stages of technological development. One framework for these activities is anticipatory governance, in which foresight and public and stakeholder engagement are used to reflect on—and direct—the impacts of new technology. In this essay we draw on our experience of anticipatory governance, in the shape of the “NanoFutures” project on energy futures, to present a reflexive analysis of engagement and deliberation. We draw out five tensions of the practice of deliberation on energy technologies. Through tracing the lineages of these dilemmas, we discuss some of the implications of these tensions for the practice of civic engagement and deliberation in a set of questions for this community of practitioner-scholars.     

2014, The “year without a summer” in Italy: news media coverage and implications for the climate change debate

In 2014, there was virtually no summer in northern and central-southern Italy. Storm after storm battered the peninsula, triggering floods and landslides from Veneto to Puglia. We studied the coverage of “the year without a summer” in Italy by analyzing the content of 171 news articles from two influential online newspapers. Our software-based analysis enabled us to observe that the two newspapers hardly ever mentioned climate change in their coverage of the weather anomaly that affected Italy in the summer of 2014. This type of coverage is in line with climate science, according to which there is no evidence of a climate change-related influence on summer precipitation patterns in Southern Europe—whereas such influence has been documented for northern Europe. We compared our results with a recent paper, which documented that the same online dailies chose to represent the particularly hot summer of 2012 in Italy as a direct consequence of climate change. We corroborated this comparison also on the basis of a preliminary analysis we performed on the media coverage of the exceptionally hot and arid summer of 2015 in Italy.     

Climate change,food stress,and security in Russia

Farming in higher latitudes is generally believed to benefit from a warmer climate due to extended growing season, reduced risk of frost, availability of more productive cultivars, and an opening potential of farming in northern locations. We analyzed the impact of climate change on production of cereals in Russia and found that this general perception of beneficiary effect of a warmer climate is unlikely to hold, primarily due to increasing risk of droughts in the most important agricultural areas of the country. Past impacts of droughts on food security throughout the twentieth century suggest that a number of adaptation options are available to mitigate the increasing risks of crop failure. We analyze the effectiveness of these measures in connection with a set of climate change projections, under two contrasting scenarios of interregional grain trade: “Fortress Market” and “Open Market.”     

Beyond Counting Climate Consensus

Several studies have been using quantified consensus within climate science as an argument to foster climate policy. Recent efforts to communicate such scientific consensus attained a high public profile but it is doubtful if they can be regarded successful. We argue that repeated efforts to shore up the scientific consensus on minimalist claims such as “humans cause global warming” are distractions from more urgent matters of knowledge, values, policy framing and public engagement. Such efforts to force policy progress through communicating scientific consensus misunderstand the relationship between scientific knowledge, publics and policymakers. More important is to focus on genuinely controversial issues within climate policy debates where expertise might play a facilitating role. Mobilizing expertise in policy debates calls for judgment, context and attention to diversity, rather than deferring to formal quantifications of narrowly scientific claims.