“We cannot let this happen again”: reversing UK flood policy in response to the Somerset Levels floods, 2014

The Multiple Streams Framework offers a theoretical account of how policy proposals move from latent possibilities to becoming favored for implementation. We apply this framework in the context of the policy response to the 2013–2014 flooding of the Somerset Levels and Moors. Stakeholder interviews and analysis of news media coverage evidence the way in which a specific policy option that had fallen out of favor with the national Environment Agency – dredging – came to the fore and was eventually adopted during the period in which the conjunction of problem, policy, and political pressures came to a head. Local political activists mobilized a wider campaign with the help of social media and capitalized on national political sensitivities to successfully promote dredging. What is less clear is the longevity of the policy reversal, given funding constraints.     

Waterbird Population Changes in the Wetlands at Chongming Dongtan in the Yangtze River Estuary,China

We studied the changes in wetland habitats and waterbird communities between the 1980s and the 2000s at Chongming Dongtan, a Ramsar site in the Yangtze River estuary, an ecologically important region. This region is an important stopover site for shorebirds along the East Asian–Australasian flyway and is extensively used by waterfowl. A net loss of 11% of the wetland area was estimated during study periods at Chongming Dongtan. The change was dependent on wetland types: while the area of artificial habitats such as paddy fields and aquacultural ponds more than doubled, more than 65% of natural habitats including sea bulrush (Scirpus mariqueter) and common reed (Phragmites australis) marshes were lost over the two decades. An exotic plant species introduced from North America, smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora), occupied 30% of the vegetated intertidal zone by the 2000s. Although waterbird species richness did not change between the 1980s (110) and the 2000s (111), 13 species found in 1980s were replaced by 14 newly recorded species. Moreover, there were more species with declining trends (58) than with increasing trends (19). The population trends of species were affected by residential status and habitat types. Transients, wintering migrants, and habitat specialists were more likely to show declining trends compared to those breeding at Dongtan (including year-round and summer residents) and habitat generalists. Furthermore, species associated mainly with natural wetlands were more likely to decline than those associated mainly with artificial wetlands. These patterns suggest that the loss and change of wetland habitats at Chongming Dongtan adversely affected local population dynamics and might have contributed to the global decline of some waterbird species. Because Chongming Dongtan provides stopover and wintering habitats for many migratory waterbirds, protection and restoration of natural wetlands at Chongming Dongtan are urgently needed.     

Toward Explaining Nitrogen and Phosphorus Trends in Chesapeake Bay Tributaries, 1992–2012

Understanding trends in stream chemistry is critical to watershed management, and often complicated by multiple contaminant sources and landscape conditions changing over varying time scales. We adapted spatially referenced regression (SPARROW) to infer causes of recent nutrient trends in Chesapeake Bay tributaries by relating observed fluxes during 1992, 2002, and 2012 to contemporary inputs and watershed conditions. The annual flow‐normalized nitrogen flux to the bay from its watershed declined by 14% to 127,000 Mg (metric tons) between 1992 and 2012, due primarily (more than 80% of the decline) to reduced point sources. The remainder of the decline was due to reduced atmospheric deposition (13%) and urban nonpoint sources. Agricultural inputs, which contribute most nitrogen to the bay, changed little, although trends in the average nitrogen yield (flux per unit area) from cropland and pasture to streams in some settings suggest possible effects of evolving nutrient applications or other land management practices. Point sources of phosphorus to local streams declined by half between 1992 and 2012, while nonpoint inputs were relatively unchanged. Annual phosphorus delivery to the bay increased by 9% to 9,570 Mg between 1992 and 2012, however, due mainly to reduced retention in the Susquehanna River at Conowingo Reservoir.     

Butterflies (Lepidoptera: Papilionoidea and Hesperioidea) of Roxborough State Park, Colorado, USA: Baseline Inventory, Community Attributes, and Monitoring Plan

/ Roxborough State Park in Colorado's Front Range was established in 1975 following a history of cattle and sheep ranching by private ownership. Survey work conducted from 1979 to 1995 resulted in the documentation of 93 species of butterflies. A variety of factors are responsible for the composition of the butterfly community: (1) overgrazing and its effect on the presence or absence of specific butterfly host plants; (2) habitat differences resulting from topographical and geological features; and (3) ecological and historical biogeography. This study provides data on community sampling adequacy, along with estimates of effort needed to monitor trends in abundance by using a community self-similarity curve and power analysis. An annual monitoring plan is proposed to assess trends in community composition. The plan includes collection of presence/absence and abundance data for select butterflies based on natural history information.KEY WORDS: Butterfly communities; Grazing; Inventory; Monitoring; Natural history     

Effect of Diel Activity Patterns and Harvesting Pressure on the Diversity and Biomass of Sea Cucumbers in Marovo Lagoon, Solomon Islands

A marked decline in the contribution by Marovo Lagoon to the annual total bêche-de-mer production of the Solomon Islands from 58% in 1989 to 17% in 2003 prompted investigation of their current biomass and diversity. We also assessed changes to critical ecological services and the prospects for population recovery following a fisheries closure. Day time and nocturnal transects revealed a mean abundance of 32.4 (SD = 5.3) low value species per ha (e.g. Holothuria atra, H. edulis, H. coluber and Thelenota anax) and 15.2 (SD = 2.7) high value species per ha (e.g. H. fuscogilva, Actinopyga lecanora, Stichopus hermanni and Thelenota ananas). Following a 17 month closure of the fishery (2005–2007), the abundance of bêche-de-mer was reported by local fisherman to have increased; however, no scientific studies were conducted that can substantiate this community held belief. The current study aimed to document the impact of re-opening the fishery in 2007 and documented a decline in high value species of 9% over a 5 month period following the opening of the fishery, while low value species continued to increase in abundance by 11%, over the same period based on nocturnal surveys. Continued observation of the recovery, post closure, and any subsequent harvest in Marovo will be required to properly understand population dynamics and provide a sustainable harvest plan for bêche-de-mer in the future.     

Evaluating the effects of alternative forest management plans under various physiographic settings using historical records as a reference

Using historical General Land Office record as a reference, this study employed a landscape-scale disturbance and succession model to estimate the future cumulative effects of six alternative management plans on the tree species composition for various physiographic settings for the Mark Twain National Forest in Missouri. The results indicate that over a 200-year horizon, the relative abundance of black oak and pine species groups will decrease and the relative abundance of the white oak species group will increase, regardless of management strategy. General Land Office witness tree records provide a measure of tree species composition in the period from 1800 to 1850, prior to the large-scale influx of European settlers. Compared to the tree species composition described in the General Land Office records, the six contemporary management alternatives considered all would lead to a lower abundance of pine species, a higher abundance of red/black oak species, and a slightly higher abundance of white oak species after 200 years. Impacts of management on tree species composition varied with physiographic settings. The projected relative abundance of pine differed significantly across the five physiographic classes over the first 40 years of the simulation. In the medium term (simulation years 41-100) the projected relative pine abundance differed significantly among only four physiographic classes. In the long term (simulation years 100-200) the projected relative pine abundance differed for only one physiographic class. In contrast, differences among physiographic classes in the relative abundance of black oaks and white oaks increased over time. In general, the expected long-term differences in relative tree species abundance among six proposed alternative management plans are small compared to shifts in tree species composition that have occurred from 1850 to the present.     

Mineral consumption in the UK, 1945–1980: A statistical analysis

Trends in the UK consumption of 12 metallic and 19 non-metallic minerals are examined for the period 1945–1980. Comparisons are drawn between these trends and developments in per capita GDP, total world consumption and UK mineral processing capacity. Although the consumption of most minerals has shown a tendency to stagnate or decline in recent years, taking the post-war period as a whole the consumption of non-metallics has displayed a faster and more sustained growth than that of metallics; thus their share of the total value of minerals consumed in the UK has increased significantly.     

Long-term perspectives on world metal use—a system-dynamics model

In this paper, a system dynamics model is described, which simulates long-term trends in the production and consumption of metals (i.e. iron/steel and an aggregate of metals of medium abundance) in relation to impacts such as ore-grade decline, capital and energy requirements and waste flows. This metal model can be of assistance in exploring the issue of sustainability of metal resource use. Application of the model to historical trends shows it to be fairly capable of reproducing the long-term trends in the 1900–1990 period, among others on the basis of two intensity of use curves applied to 13 world regions. For future trends, a set of perspective-based long-term scenarios has been constructed that represent the major paradigms in resource use. These scenarios highlight some of the uncertain factors in the relation between economic growth, metal resource exploitation and use, and energy and environmental consequences. They also indicate that apparently similar metal flows in society may be the result of quite different and sometimes contrary assumptions on metal demand, production patterns and resource base characteristics. Such analyses contribute to a more open and transparent discussion on the issue at hand by adding quantitative explications to qualitative views.     

Experimental and Ecological Implications of Evening Bird Surveys in Stream-Riparian Ecosystems

Stream-riparian ecosystems are dynamic and complex entities that can support high levels of bird assemblage abundance and diversity. The myriad patches (e.g., aquatic, floodplain, riparian) found in the riverscape habitat mosaic attract a unique mixture of aquatic, semiaquatic, riparian, and upland birds, each uniquely utilizing the river corridor. Whereas standard morning bird surveys are widely used across ecosystems, the variety of bird guilds and the temporal habitat partitioning that likely occur in stream-riparian ecosystems argue for the inclusion of evening surveys. At 41 stream reaches in Vermont and Idaho, USA, we surveyed bird assemblages using a combination of morning and evening fixed-width transect counts. Student’s paired t-tests showed that while bird abundance was not significantly different between morning and evening surveys, bird assemblage diversity (as measured by species richness, Shannon-Weiner’s index, and Simpson’s index) was significantly higher in the morning than in the evening. NMS ordinations of bird species and time (i.e., morning, evening) indicated that the structure of morning bird assemblages was different from that of evening assemblages. NMS further showed that a set of species was only found in evening surveys. The inclusion of evening counts in surveying bird assemblages in stream-riparian ecosystems has important experimental and ecological implications. Experimentally, the sole use of morning bird surveys may significantly underestimate the diversity and misrepresent the community composition of bird assemblages in these ecosystems. Ecologically, many of the birds detected in evening surveys were water-associated species that occupy high trophic levels and aerial insectivores that represent unique aquatic-terrestrial energy transfers.     

The use and effectiveness of the site of special scientific interest designation in the east midlands region of the nature conservancy council

This paper looks at the use and effectiveness of the Site of Special Scientific Interest designation in three counties in the East Midlands region of the Nature Conservancy Council, namely Nottinghamshire, Northamptonshire and Cambridgeshire. Using unpublished sources within the NCC an analysis is made of the SSSI system in practice since its inception in 1949. A number of findings relating to weaknesses in the designation and the operation of the designation system emerge. Each of these findings is discussed in turn with the presentation of the appropriate evidence from the county case studies.     

Revisiting nitrate concentrations in the Des Moines River: 1945 and 1976-2001

Recent compilations of historical and contemporary riverine nitrate (NO3) concentrations indicate that concentrations in many rivers in the north-central USA increased during the second half of the 20th century. The Des Moines River near Des Moines, Iowa, however, was reported to have had similar NO3 concentrations in 1945 and the 1980s, in spite of substantially greater N input to the watershed during the latter period. The objective of this study was to reconsider the comparison of historical and contemporary NO3 concentrations in the Des Moines River near Des Moines in light of the following: (i) possible errors in the historical data used, (ii) variations in methods of sample collection, (iii) variations in location of sampling, and (iv) additional data collected since 1990. We discovered that an earlier study had compared the flow-weighted average concentration in 1945 to arithmetic annual average concentrations in the 1980s. The intertemporal comparison also appeared to be influenced by differences in sample collection methods and locations used at different times. Depending on the model used and the estimated effects of composite sample collection, the 1945 arithmetic average NO3 concentration was between 44 and 57% of the expected mean value at a similar water yield during 1976-2001. The flow-weighted average NO3 concentration for 1945 was between 54 and 73% of the expected mean value at a similar water yield during 1976-2001. The difference between NO3 concentrations in 1945 and the contemporary period are larger than previously reported for the Des Moines River.     

Perceptions of Species Abundance,Distribution, and Diversity: Lessons from Four Decades of Sampling on a Government-Managed Reserve

/ We examined data relative to species abundance, distribution, anddiversity patterns of reptiles and amphibians to determine how perceptionschange over time and with level of sampling effort. Location data werecompiled on more than one million individual captures or observations of 98species during a 44-year study period on the US Department of Energy's(DOE) Savannah River Site National Environmental Research Park (SRS-NERP) inSouth Carolina. We suggest that perceptions of herpetofaunal speciesdiversity are strongly dependent on level of effort and that land managementdecisions based on short-term data bases for some faunal groups could resultin serious errors in environmental management. We provide evidence thatacquiring information on biodiversity distribution patterns is compatiblewith multiyear spatially extensive research programs and also provide aperspective of what might be achieved if long-term, coordinated researchefforts were instituted nationwide.To conduct biotic surveys on government-managed lands, we recommend revisionsin the methods used by government agencies to acquire and report biodiversitydata. We suggest that government and industry employees engaged inbiodiversity survey efforts develop proficiency in field identification forone or more major taxonomic groups and be encouraged to measure the status ofpopulations quantitatively with consistent and reliable methodologies. Wealso suggest that widespread academic cooperation in the dissemination ofinformation on regional patterns of biodiversity could result byestablishment of a peer-reviewed, scientifically rigorous journal concernedwith status and trends of the biota of the United States. KEY WORDS: Abundance; Amphibian; Biodiversity; Distribution; Landmanagement; Reptile     

The environmental history of Chatthin Wildlife Sanctuary, a protected area in Myanmar (Burma)

We reconstructed the history of Chatthin Wildlife Sanctuary (CWS) to understand how social and economic events, and policy changes affected the sanctuary's condition. We surveyed 25 villages surrounding CWS to evaluate past and present ecological conditions, compare the results with historical accounts and identify causal relationships. During the first half of the 20th century, the primary threat was the government's reduction of old growth forest to supply fuel wood for the British-built railway. The railroad opened the area to colonization, but the villagers' impact on timber and wildlife was low. From 1945 to 1988, villagers became the primary force of landscape degradation. The post-war windfall of firearms increased hunting pressure, and populations of large mammal started to decline. With the economic decline of the 1970s and 1980s, the community's demand for game and forest products intensified, and the large mammal fauna was reduced from eleven to four species. From 1988-2003, the forests surrounding the sanctuary were fragmented and degraded. The absence of large predators rendered the park safe for livestock, and the combined effects of grazing and removal of forest products seriously degraded habitat within CWS. Major threats to CWS during the past two decades have resulted from land use decisions in which government-planned economic enterprises caused encroachment by villagers. Stabilization and recovery of this sanctuary will require management compatible with human needs, including expanded buffer zones, better core area protection, community forestry projects, and probably relocation of villages within the park.     

Environmental Indicators of Habitat Quality in a Migratory Freshwater Fish Fauna

/ In general, diadromous (and particularly amphidromous and catadromous) freshwater fishes decline in frequency of occurrence, change age/size structure, and probably also decline in abundance with increasing elevation and distance upstream from the sea. In freshwater fish faunas with a high proportion of migratory species, as in New Zealand, these changes in occurrence and abundance result in a breakdown of the relationship between fish abundance and habitat quality, making application of the index of biotic integrity (IBI) as a measure of habitat quality problematical since the index depends on the relationship between population metrics and habitat quality. An alternative approach applicable to assessing temporal changes in habitat quality and that uses a large database on fish distributions, involves analysis of the distribution of species across their natural distributions. In this paper we generate curves of occurrence of species across ranges of altitude and distance inland and show, through comparisons of data subsets, that the curves are consistent estimators of species' occurrence and therefore useful as indicators of habitat quality.     

NUTRIENT MASS BALANCE AND TRENDS,MOBILE RIVER BASIN,ALABAMA, GEORGIA,AND MISSISSIPPI1

ABSTRACT: A nutrient mass balance — accounting for nutrient inputs from atmospheric deposition, fertilizer, crop nitrogen fixation, and point source effluents; and nutrient outputs, including crop harvest and storage — was calculated for 18 subbasins in the Mobile River Basin, and trends (1970 to 1997) were evaluated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Agricultural nonpoint nitrogen and phosphorus sources and urban nonpoint nitrogen sources are the most important factors associated with nutrients in this system. More than 30 percent of nitrogen yield in two basins and phosphorus yield in eight basins can be attributed to urban point source nutrient inputs. The total nitrogen yield (1.3 tons per square mile per year) for the Tombigbee River, which drains a greater percentage of agricultural (row crop) land use, was larger than the total nitrogen yield (0.99 tons per square mile per year) for the Alabama River. Decreasing trends of total nitrogen concentrations in the Tombigbee and Alabama Rivers indicate that a reduction occurred from 1975 to 1997 in the nitrogen contributions to Mobile Bay from the Mobile River. Nitrogen concentrations also decreased (1980 to 1995) in the Black Warrior River, one of the major tributaries to the Tombigbee River. Total phosphorus concentrations increased from 1970 to 1996 at three urban influenced sites on the Etowah River in Georgia. Multiple regression analysis indicates a distinct association between water quality in the streams of the Mobile River drainage basin and agricultural activities in the basin.     

Property rights and grassland degradation: a study of the Xilingol pasture, Inner Mongolia, China

The semi-private property rights arrangement called the Household Production Responsibility System (HPRS) was started in the early 1980s in Xilingol pasture of Inner Mongolia (China), and stimulated the development of stockbreeding. The grassland has been degrading severely with increasing numbers of livestock. Based on a historical review of property rights regimes in Inner Mongolia and empirical surveys in Xilingol pasture during 2001-2003, this paper assesses the implementation of HPRS and its impacts on incomes of households as well as the environmental impact on the grassland. It was found that HPRS does not mitigate the "Tragedy of the Commons", instead it has exacerbated the situation. It was also found that co-management of grassland and livestock among a few households presents a sustainable use of grassland to develop livestock breeding. We conclude with the recommendation that small-scale collective property rights systems should be encouraged in Xilingol pasture of Inner Mongolia.     

The greening of agricultural policy: Scotland's environmentally sensitive areas (Esas)

The United Kingdom's 1986 Agriculture Act provided the basis for the designation of Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) “in order to contribute towards the introduction or the maintenance of farming practices compatible with the requirements of the protection of the environment”. This paper examines the establishment of ESAs in Scotland, setting their creation and operation against the background of the move away from productionist farm support policies. There is consideration of how agriculture and the environment have fared since the first Scottish ESAs were created in 1987, with special reference to the Breadalbane ESA.     

Is legislation a barrier to the sustainable management of game species? A case study of wild deer in Britain

Wild game management for hunting in Western society has become increasingly complex as stakeholders have multiplied and as ‘sustainability’ influences the contemporary debate. This paper questions whether the current legal framework for game management, which has evolved from early European civilisations to focus on ‘hunting rights’, is relevant to regulate the contemporary environmental, social and economic dimensions of wild game and their management. Employing a narrative analysis to focus on deer, the study identifies key legislative tenets and highlights the pertinence of historical laws to contemporary conflicts. The analysis suggests that current legislation is increasingly divergent from contemporary trends and has created inertia with respect to sustainable deer management. The paper offers four options to redress this: state intervention; voluntary collaboration; financial incentives; and establishing a legal responsibility for management. It is concluded that significant innovation is required in one or more of these four areas to facilitate the contemporary sustainable management of wild deer in Britain.     

Fishers,Farms, and Forests in Eastern North America

The fisher (Martes pennanti) has recently recovered from historic extirpations across much of its geographic range. There are at least five explanations for the recovery of the fisher, including changes in the amount of habitat, the suitability of habitat, trapping pressure, societal attitudes toward predators, and climate. We evaluated a recovering fisher population in Ontario to test two conditions we viewed as necessary to support the hypothesis that fisher populations have increased due to an increase in the amount of forested land. First, we tested whether the amount of forested land has increased. Second, we tested whether contemporary fisher abundance (and therefore habitat quality) was related to the amount of forest. Topographic maps showed that the proportion of forested land in the study area had increased by 1.9% per decade since 1934 and 3.3% per decade since 1959, likely as a result of land conversion from agricultural uses. Overall the proportion of the study area that was forested increased from 29% to 40% during 1934 to 1995. Census data from the region indicated that there had been a decline in the amount of land area being farmed during the last 50 years. Recent livetrapping data showed that fisher abundance was positively related to the proportion of landscapes that were forested. Based on our results, we could not reject the hypothesis that an increase in the amount of forested land has contributed to the recovery of fisher populations.     

Resource Selection Probability Functions for Gopher Tortoise: Providing a Management Tool Applicable Across the Species’ Range

The gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) is protected by conservation policy throughout its range. Efforts to protect the species from further decline demand detailed understanding of its habitat requirements, which have not yet been rigorously defined. Current methods of identifying gopher tortoise habitat typically rely on coarse soil and vegetation classifications, and are prone to over-prediction of suitable habitat. We used a logistic resource selection probability function in an information-theoretic framework to understand the relative importance of various environmental factors to gopher tortoise habitat selection, drawing on nationwide environmental datasets, and an existing tortoise survey of the Ft. Benning military base. We applied the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as an index of vegetation density, and found that NDVI was strongly negatively associated with active burrow locations. Our results showed that the most parsimonious model included variables from all candidate model types (landscape features, topography, soil, vegetation), and the model groups describing soil or vegetation alone performed poorly. These results demonstrate with a rigorous quantitative approach that although soil and vegetation are important to the gopher tortoise, they are not sufficient to describe suitable habitat. More widely, our results highlight the feasibility of constructing highly accurate habitat suitability models from data that are widely available throughout the species’ range. Our study shows that the widespread availability of national environmental datasets describing important components of gopher tortoise habitat, combined with existing tortoise surveys on public lands, can be leveraged to inform knowledge of habitat suitability and target recovery efforts range-wide.