An Analysis with the CERT Model of the FSU Market Power in the Carbon Emissions Trading Market

This paper aims to assess the consequences of the amendments made to the Kyoto Protocol during COP 7 in Marrakech. The major issue of hot air and CDM transaction costs is examined using the CERT model to show that primary supply regions, typically those with hot air availability, might control the emissions reduction permit supply market and maximise net export revenues of permit supply by withholding 40 to 60% of available hot air credits. The assumption that primary permit suppliers control permit price via a restriction of hot air supply to the market will inadvertently leave a portion of the market share open to non-Annex B CDM supply, despite potentially extreme variance in CDM transaction costs. A summary table of policy implications on the emissions reduction permit market is also included.     

A Metamodeling Approach for Integrated Assessment of Air Quality Policies

A method is proposed to build integrated models (also called Metamodels) aimed at quantifying the economic efficiency of air quality policies. This Metamodeling approach is based on the coupling of two complementary models, that operate at different scales in space and time, and which represent the economic and the physical and chemical processes, respectively. The joint consideration of the physico-chemical and techno-economic structure of the pollution control problems permits a comprehensive evaluation of air pollution abatement strategies. The motivating pollution control problems include urban-regional air quality management through efficient energy and traffic control policies. A pilot study, exploiting data collected in the Geneva canton (Switzerland), is used to demonstrate the potential of the approach.     

Monitoring of the atmospheric burdens of CH4, N2O,CO, CHCIF2 and CF2Cl2 above Central Europe during the last decade

Based on high spectral resolution infrared solar observations made at the International Scientific Station of the Jungfraujoch, Switzerland, total vertical column abundances of 18 atmospheric gases have been monitored routinely since 1984. The observed temporal evolutions in the columns of CH₄, N₂O, CO, CHClF₂ (HCFC-22) and CF₂Cl₂ (CFC-12) are reported here as typical examples of this monitoring effort which is conducted within the frame of Global Change and Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change programs.     

Measuring the Welfare Cost of Climate Change Policies: A Comparative Assessment Based on the Computable General Equilibrium Model GEMINI-E3

Measuring the welfare cost of climate change policies is a real challenge, raising difficult issues of micro- and macro-economics: cost-benefit analysis on the one hand, foreign trade and international specialization on the second hand. At the domestic level the possible existence of distortions, in particular in the fiscal system, may either increase or alleviate the welfare cost of a climate change policy, as illustrated by the debate on double dividend. Effects on the prices in international markets and distorted competition between countries committed to abate (Annex B) and uncommitted countries affect both the sharing of the burden, in particular through the change in the terms of trade, and the allocation of activities with the frequently waved threat of delocalization. Based on a companion theoretical analysis, the present paper aims at putting order in the welfare analysis of climate change policy and to present and compare various estimations, issuing from macro- or computable general equilibrium models. Beside the global welfare cost, the paper focuses on the marginal abatement cost and its relation to the carbon price.Most present conceptual and applied analysis is based on the case of a single domestic household-consumer. Taking into account several consumers raises new challenges, concerning equity but even more fundamentally the mere definition of fiscal distortion, which have not yet been really addressed.     

Spatial scale-dependent policy planning for land management in southern Europe

This study outlines and original tool for rural policy planning in southern Europe. This new tool is a process-based, scale-dependent, rural policy-making approach, which is designed to address increasing land degradation problems in southern Europe. Seven important processes are identified (land abandonment, devegetation, intensification in agriculture, global climate change, accelerated soil erosion, increasing water demands, urbanisation) and plotted on a space-time diagram, which clearly shows the spatial and temporal scales for which these processes are significant for landscape change in southern Europe. Conclusions are derived concerning, in particular, sustainable (optimal) rural policy-making for southern Europe's problematic land management. An optimal spatial-temporal scale for land management in southern Europe may range spatially from the farm (0.5 km²) to sub-provincial level (450 km²) and temporally from 7 to 30 years. The study delineates methods and results derivable from such a new policy-planning approach and suggests the usefulness of combining this approach with ecological land classification at the landscape level.     

Reporting emissions of greenhouse gases in Canada

Non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases are considered in Canada's National Report on Climate Change: Actions to Meet Commitments Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. By including all major greenhouse gases and their anthropogenic sources and sinks using best available science, the Report provides a practical illustration of the comprehensive approach policy to implementing the Convention's requirements. In addition to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion, the Report includes information on other sources and sinks for carbon dioxide, and for methane and nitrous oxide. Other gases considered include polyflourocarbons, hydroflourocarbons, and the primary tropospheric ozone precursors, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. Current Global Warming Potential indices are used to compare and integrate the best estimates of climate change impacts of the major greenhouse gases. The presentation of emission data is intended to be transparent and comparable. The relative quality of the data for various gases and sources is indicated. The existence of environmental, economic, and other benefits to limiting emissions of all greenhouse gases, in addition to carbon dioxide, should be recognized. Continuing assessments and actions on non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions, both nationally and internationally, are suggested.     

Syndromes of Global Change: a qualitative modelling approach to assist global environmental management

A novel transdisciplinary approach to investigate Global Change (GC) is presented. The approach rests on the decomposition of the intrigue dynamics of GC into patterns of civilization–nature interactions (syndromes) by an iterative scientific process of observations, data and system theoretical analyses, and modelling attempts. We illustrate the approach by a detailed analysis of the Sahel Syndrome, which describes the rural poverty driven overuse of natural resources. The investigation is performed by (i) identifying relevant symptoms and interlinkages which are characteristics for this pattern, and (ii) a qualitative model representing the internal dynamics of the essential flywheel. The geographical patchwork of the regions affected by the syndrome which is obtained by global data analysis, proves the high global relevance of this pattern. The qualitative model is employed for an evaluation of basic policy strategies debated in the context of rural poverty driven environmental degradation. It turns out that a mixed policy of combating poverty and introducing soil preserving agricultural techniques and practices is most promising to tackle the syndrome dynamics.     

Living with a large reduction in permited loading by using a hydrograph-controlled release scheme

The Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for ammonia and biochemical oxygen demand for the Pee Dee, Waccamaw, and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway system near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, mandated a 60-percent reduction in point-source loading. For waters with a naturally low background dissolved-oxygen concentrations, South Carolina anti-degradation rules in the water-quality regulations allows a permitted discharger a reduction of dissolved oxygen of 0.1 milligrams per liter (mg/L). This is known as the 0.1 rule. Permitted dischargers within this region of the State operate under the 0.1 rule and cannot cause a cumulative impact greater than 0.1 mg/L on dissolved-oxygen concentrations. For municipal water-reclamation facilities to serve the rapidly growing resort and retirement community near Myrtle Beach, a variable loading scheme was developed to allow dischargers to utilize increased assimilative capacity during higher streamflow conditions while still meeting the requirements of a recently established TMDL.As part of the TMDL development, an extensive real-time data-collection network was established in the lower Waccamaw and Pee Dee River watershed where continuous measurements of streamflow, water level, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and specific conductance are collected. In addition, the dynamic BRANCH/BLTM models were calibrated and validated to simulate the water quality and tidal dynamics of the system. The assimilative capacities for various streamflows were also analyzed.The variable-loading scheme established total loadings for three streamflow levels. Model simulations show the results from the additional loading to be less than a 0.1mg/L reduction in dissolved oxygen. As part of the loading scheme, the real-time network was redesigned to monitor streamflow entering the study area and water-quality conditions in the location of dissolved-oxygen sags. The study reveals how one group of permit holders used a variable-loading scheme to implement restrictive permit limits without experiencing prohibitive capital expenditures or initiating a lengthy appeals process.     

Carrots and sticks for new technology: Abating greenhouse gas emissions in a heterogeneous and uncertain world

Many governments use technology incentives as an important component of their greenhouse gas abatement strategies. These carrots are intended to encourage the initial diffusion of new, greenhouse-gas-emissions-reducing technologies, in contrast to carbon taxes and emissions trading which provide a stick designed to reduce emissions by increasing the price of high-emitting technologies for all users. Technology incentives appear attractive, but their record in practice is mixed and economic theory suggests that in the absence of market failures, they are inefficient compared to taxes and trading. This study uses an agent-based model of technology diffusion and exploratory modeling, a new technique for decision-making under conditions of extreme uncertainty, to examine the conditions under which technology incentives should be a key building block of robust climate change policies. We find that a combined strategy of carbon taxes and technology incentives, as opposed to carbon taxes alone, is the best approach to greenhouse gas emissions reductions if the social benefits of early adoption sufficiently exceed the private benefits. Such social benefits can occur when economic actors have a wide variety of cost/performance preferences for new technologies and either new technologies have increasing returns to scale or potential adopters can reduce their uncertainty about the performance of new technologies by querying the experience of other adopters. We find that if decision-makers hold even modest expectations that such social benefits are significant or that the impacts of climate change will turn out to be serious then technology incentive programs may be a promising hedge against the threat of climate change.     

SMOKE CONCENTRATION AS AN INDICATOR OF POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS LEVELS IN THE AIR

The relationship of polycyclic aromatichydrocarbons (PAH) and smoke concentrationwas analysed at four different locations in Zagreb during theheating season. At two sampling sitessmoke pollution came primarily from domestic heating while theother two sites were under a directinfluence of traffic. At locations away from trafficcorrelations between smoke and PAH concentrationswere stochastically significant at 0.01 level. Takingbenzo-a-pyrene (BaP) as a PAH representative itwas shown that for these two locations the smoke/BaPrelationship can be presented with a singleregression line which can serve for rough assessment of BaPlevels in the air. The BaP concentrationof 10 ng/m³ – proposed by the German FederalEnvironmental Agency as orientation < mark (Lahman et al., 1984) – might be expected to occurat smoke levels 60 g/m³,and above this level it is recommended to start measuringactual concentrations of PAH.     

The importance of considering spatial attributes in evaluating estuarine habitat condition: the South Carolina experience

The South Carolina Estuarine and Coastal Assessment Program (SCECAP) was initiated in 1999 to assess the condition of the state's coastal habitats using multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Sampling was subsequently expanded to include components required for the National Coastal Assessment (Coastal 2000) Program. Habitats are classified as either tidal creeks (<#60; 100 meters in width) or larger open water bodies. Approximately 30 sites are sampled within each habitat during the summer months using a probability-based random sampling design. Results obtained from the first two years of sampling documented significant differences in several water quality parameters (DO, salinity, pH, turbidity, fecal coliform bacteria, total nitrogen, TKN, total phosphorus) and biological measures (chlorophyll-a, finfish and crustacean abundance and biomass and a number of benthic species) between the tidal creek and open water habitats. These differences highlight the value of partitioning shallow water habitats separately from the larger open water bodies traditionally sampled in estuarine monitoring programs, especially since tidal creeks serve as critical nursery areas for many species. Based on the differences observed, there is a clear need to identify different physical and biological thresholds for evaluating the condition of each habitat type.     

Internet Web-Based Information System for Scrap Vehicle Disposal in Taiwan

The scrap vehicle recycling program was formally initiated in 1995 when the illegal dumping issues of scrap tires and cars turn out to be intolerable in the society of Taiwan. The inherent complexity of such a recycling program, however, by integrating many public and private sectors that functions as a whole from the collection, storage, transport, treatment, and the disposal of scrape vehicles, makes the entire managerial efficiency hard to be maintained. Therefore, the state-of-the-art information technology via the use of the Internet platform becomes an indispensable tool to present a good communication mechanism, to provide the essential information sharing between all users and agencies, and to end up with improving the overall managerial efficiency. The idea using advanced web database along with geographical information system to help general public to dump their scrap vehicles smoothly and to make governmental agency control the disposal procedure easily could be one of the best solutions from the long-term environmental management perspective. This paper, representing contemporary progress of environmental management skill performed by the Foundation for Reduction, Reuse and Recovery, sponsored by the Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) in Taiwan, is designed to illustrate how to build up such a system, as named by the Scrap Vehicles Recycling Program Information System (SVRPIMS) in order to meet the requirement from both supply and demand sides of scrap vehicles disposal. Experience gained in this study indicates that the SVRPIMS successfully integrates the Coldfusion^® and Mapguide^® software engineering technologies on the World Wide Web (WWW) platform. After actual implementation in 1999, it proved that communication between users and agencies at various levels in the recycling program became much easier through instant information retrieval and analysis via such a system. Besides, SVRPIMS also provides two decision-support functionalities to assist in automatic search for the most appropriate dumping site for the users and to perform possible trading of spare parts for the recyclers through a logistic optimization analysis.     

Methane in ocean waters: Concentration and carbon isotope variability at East Pacific Rise and in the Arabian Sea

Methane concentrations and stable carbon isotope ratios of water samples from the East Pacific Rise (EPR) at 21°S and the Arabian Sea (24°N, 65°E) have been determined. EPR surface water is in equilibrium (ca. 50 nl/L and –50<¹³CH₄<–46) with atmospheric methane. Deep background water has the signature of the remaining fraction of atmospheric methane partially oxidized in the water column by bacteria. Bottom near, hydrothermally influenced vent methane (>100nl/L and –30<¹³CH₄<–22) is detectable only close to the seep site. There is no input of hydrothermal methane into the atmosphere. EPR water is considered to be rather a sink than a source of atmospheric methane. Surface waters of the Arabian Sea are enriched in methane relative to the atmosphere (source for atmospheric methane). Carbon isotope ratios point to a bacterial origin of methane (¹³CH₄<–55) that is generated in the surface waters. Concentration changes and variations of carbon isotope ratios also suggest that methane seeping from the sea floor sediments of the Arabian Sea is oxidized by bacterial activity and does not reach the atmosphere.     

Using cellular automata for integrated modelling of socio-environmental systems

Cellular automata provide the key to a dynamic modelling and simulation framework that integrates socio-economic with environmental models, and that operates at both micro and macro geographical scales. An application to the problem of forecasting the effect of climate change on a small island state suggests that such modelling techniques could help planners and policy makers design more effective policies — policies better tuned both to specific local needs and to overall socio-economic and environmental constraints.Paper presented at the Workshop on GIS Applications in Coastal Zone Management Of Small Island States, Barbados, April 20–22, 1994. RIKS publication 905000/94100, April 1994.     

Harmonisation and Standardisation in Multi-National Environmental Statistics – Mission Impossible?

Multi-national statistics are frequently based on data, whichoriginate from national surveys. The systems of nomenclatureapplied for key attributes often show national differences.Different error sources which are incorporated in multi-nationalstatistics are discussed. The paper presents approaches forharmonisation and standardisation of multi-nationalenvironmental statistics and gives examples from the forestrysector. The effect of differences of national forest areaestimates on multi-national figures is quantified. An examplefrom forest health surveys is presented that shows the impact ofdifferent interpretation and application of the attribute crown transparency that is already harmonised on theEuropean level.     

Rebuilding Migratory Flyways Using Directed Conditional Covering

There has been much recent research on site selection for species preservation, although most of this research has focused on terrestrial plant and animal species. There is increasing evidence that lack of suitable habitat for migratory birds is contributing to their diminishing numbers. We extend the literature of site selection with a specific application to migratory birds. We develop reserve planning models, based on the novel idea of Directed Conditional Covering, to identify superior configurations of locations to be included in migratory flyways.     

Earth system analysis and management

A research strategy based upon models of intermediate complexity addressing crucial aspects of global environmental change is presented. The key idea behind that strategy is to compress system complexity either by formal techniques such that first-order aspects are preserved, or to employ semi-qualitative schemes to describe and simulate the dominant dynamical patterns identified by panoramic inspection.Specific realizations of the overall heuristic philosophy are introduced as elements of a comprehensive research program on global change. Topics encompass global climate modeling, a decision analysis framework for managing the global warming problem by balancing adaptation and mitigation efforts, a generic approach to integrated regional climate impact assessment and its implementation in specific regions, as well as a new technique to link regional and global patterns of environmental change by using advanced modeling tools.     

Foraminifera as bioindicators in coral reef assessment and monitoring: the FORAM Index. Foraminifera in Reef Assessment and Monitoring

Coral reef communities are threatened worldwide. Resource managers urgently need indicators of the biological condition of reef environments that can relate data acquired through remote-sensing, water-quality and benthic-community monitoring to stress responses in reef organisms. The FORAM (Foraminifera in Reef Assessment and Monitoring) Index (FI) is based on 30 years of research on reef sediments and reef-dwelling larger foraminifers. These shelled protists are ideal indicator organisms because: Foraminifers are widely used as environmental and paleoenvironmental indicators in many contexts; Reef-building, zooxanthellate corals and foraminifers with algal symbionts have similar water-quality requirements; The relatively short life spans of foraminifers as compared with long-lived colonial corals facilitate differentiation between long-term water-quality decline and episodic stress events; Foraminifers are relatively small and abundant, permitting statistically significant sample sizes to be collected quickly and relatively inexpensively, ideally as a component of comprehensive monitoring programs; and Collection of foraminifers has minimal impact on reef resources.USEPA guidelines for ecological indicators are used to evaluate the FI. Data required are foraminiferal assemblages from surface sediments of reef-associated environments. The FI provides resource managers with a simple procedure for determining the suitability of benthic environments for communities dominated by algal symbiotic organisms. The FI can be applied independently, or incorporated into existing or planned monitoring efforts. The simple calculations require limited computer capabilities and therefore can be applied readily to reef-associated environments worldwide. In addition, the foraminiferal shells collected can be subjected to morphometric and geochemical analyses in areas of suspected heavy-metal pollution, and the data sets for the index can be used with other monitoring data in detailed multidimensional assessments.     

Tree species in relation to soil moisture regime in northwestern Ontario,Canada

Selected data on site, vegetation cover, and soil, including soil moisture regime (SMR), were collected from 2 167 field plots in northwestern Ontario, Canada. SMR provides an estimate of an averaged, annualized soil moisture supply throughout a complete vegetation cycle. SMR is based upon a relative scale that subjectively ranks sites from , 0, and 1 through 9 along a soil moisture continuum which relates to a dry to wet gradient. SMR may be generally correlated to tree growth, stand composition, degree of competition, nutrient availability and overall site quality.This paper reports on relationships between SMR and major tree species. Results highlight relationships between SMR class and the broad ecological ranges of several tree species. In northwestern Ontario, the determination of SMR can help resource managers to better understand the ecology of boreal sites.     

Optimisation analysis and integrated models of the enhanced greenhouse effect

The issues surrounding the anticipated impacts of the enhanced greenhouse effect are likely to form a significant part of the research activities in the coming years. In this paper we have adopted a control theoretic approach to the analysis of one of the world's best known integrated models of the enhanced greenhouse effect: the Dutch IMAGE 1.0 (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect) model. The paper demonstrates that optimisation methodologies can be applied to integrated models to enhance their interpretative power. This is accomplished by providing a mechanism whereby optimal emission allocation strategies can be formulated from existing models. One result of particular interest is that the analysis confirms that the earlier human input into the climate system can be stabilised, the higher the levels of CO₂ emissions can be permitted and still achieve specific long-term environmental target.