Impacts of elevated atmospheric CO(2) on forest trees and forest ecosystems: knowledge gaps

Atmospheric CO(2) is rising rapidly, and options for slowing the CO(2) rise are politically charged as they largely require reductions in industrial CO(2) emissions for most developed countries. As forests cover some 43% of the Earth's surface, account for some 70% of terrestrial net primary production (NPP), and are being bartered for carbon mitigation, it is critically important that we continue to reduce the uncertainties about the impacts of elevated atmospheric CO(2) on forest tree growth, productivity, and forest ecosystem function. In this paper, I review knowledge gaps and research needs on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO(2) on forest above- and below-ground growth and productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, water relations, wood quality, phenology, community dynamics and biodiversity, antioxidants and stress tolerance, interactions with air pollutants, heterotrophic interactions, and ecosystem functioning. Finally, I discuss research needs regarding modeling of the impacts of elevated atmospheric CO(2) on forests.Even though there has been a tremendous amount of research done with elevated CO(2) and forest trees, it remains difficult to predict future forest growth and productivity under elevated atmospheric CO(2). Likewise, it is not easy to predict how forest ecosystem processes will respond to enriched CO(2). The more we study the impacts of increasing CO(2), the more we realize that tree and forest responses are yet largely uncertain due to differences in responsiveness by species, genotype, and functional group, and the complex interactions of elevated atmospheric CO(2) with soil fertility, drought, pests, and co-occurring atmospheric pollutants such as nitrogen deposition and O(3). Furthermore, it is impossible to predict ecosystem-level responses based on short-term studies of young trees grown without interacting stresses and in small spaces without the element of competition. Long-term studies using free-air CO(2) enrichment (FACE) technologies or forest stands around natural CO(2) vents are needed to increase the knowledge base on forest ecosystem responses to elevated atmospheric CO(2). In addition, new experimental protocols need to continue to be developed that will allow for mature trees to be examined in natural ecosystems. These studies should be closely linked to modeling efforts so that the inference capacity from these expensive and long-term studies can be maximized.     

Predictive model for the (14)C radioactivity in a plant following an exposure to airborne (14)CO(2) gas

This paper provides details of a dynamic compartment model for estimating the (14)C radioactivity in an agricultural plant exposed to an amount of airborne (14)CO(2) gas. The plant, in the model, is divided into two compartments, the plant body (shoot and root) and ears, to predict the radioactivity of different parts of a plant. The carbon transports from, to and between the compartments are described by the processes of a photosynthesis, respiration, and translocation. The carbon transport fluxes of these processes are determined from the growth rates of a plant, which are usually easily attained. The model predictions showed that the present model could converge to a region where the specific activity model is applicable when the elapsed exposure time was extended up to the harvest time of a plant. The (14)C activity of a plant was greatly affected by the elapsed exposure time, the developmental stages of a plant at an exposure time, and the airborne (14)C activity during an exposure. It was expected that the peak of the ears' (14)C activity appeared when the exposure time was close to the ears-maturity date. The model predictions agreed reasonably well with the measured (14)C radioactivity of the rice plants that were artificially exposed to (14)CO(2) of a high (14)C source for a short period of time in an exposure box.     

Depth profiles of radiocarbon and carbon isotopic compositions of organic matter and CO2 in a forest soil

Depth profiles of the specific activities of (14)C and carbon isotopic compositions (Delta(14)C, delta(13)C) in soil organic matter and soil CO(2) in a Japanese larch forest were determined. For investigating the transport of CO(2) in soil, specific activities of (14)C, Delta(14)C and delta(13)C in the organic layer, and atmospheric CO(2) in the same forest area were also determined. The specific activity of (14)C and Delta(14)C in the soil organic matter decreased with the increase in depth of 0-60cm, while that of soil CO(2) did not vary greatly at a soil depth of 13-73cm and was more prevalent than that of atmospheric CO(2). Peaks of specific activities of (14)C appeared at the depth of 0-4cm and Delta(14)C values were positive in the depth range from 0 to 15cm. These results suggest that the present soil at a depth of 0-4cm had been produced from the mid-1950s up until 1963, and the bomb C had reached the depth of 15cm in the objective soil area. The delta(13)C in the soil organic matter increased at the depth of 0-55cm, while that of soil CO(2) collected on 8 November 2004 decreased rapidly at the depth of 0-13cm and only slightly at the depth of 53-73cm. By combining the Delta(14)C and delta(13)C of the respective components and using the Keeling plot approach it was made clear that the entering of atmospheric CO(2) showed a large contribution to soil CO(2) at the depth of 0-13cm and a negligible contribution at the depth of 53-73cm for soil air collected on 8 November 2004. Respiration of live roots was presumed to be the main source of soil CO(2) at the depth of 53-73cm on 8 November 2004.     

Dynamics of transfer and distribution of 95Zr in the broadbean-soil ecosystem

The transfer and distribution of (95)Zr in a simulated broadbean-soil system was studied by using isotope-tracer techniques. The results showed that the (95)Zr was mainly concentrated in the haulm, pod and root, and the activity concentration of (95)Zr in these tissues reached the maximum in the initial stage then decreased continuously. The activity concentration of (95)Zr in edible part-bean was relatively lower, which was just near to the detection limit. The (95)Zr in soil was mainly (97%) deposited in surface layer soil (0-6 cm), indicating that the (95)Zr absorbed by surface soil could not be moved downwards easily because of the strong adsorption. The dynamics of (95)Zr concentrations in broadbean and soil were also confirmed by application of nonlinear regression method.     

中国2030年碳排放强度减排潜力测算

中国正面临严峻的环境问题,2013年中国的CO2排放量超过了欧盟和美国的总和,同时中国的人均CO2排放置首次超过欧洲. 2015年在巴黎国际气候大会上中国政府宣布碳排放强度减排目标为:2030年单位国内生产总值CO2排放比2005年下降60％-65％.按照IPCC(2007) CO2排放核算方法计算的数据,近年来中国CO2排放情况总体呈排放量逐年上升但排放强度总体下降的态势.为了进一步估计中国2030年CO2排放强度,本文构建了IPAT模型,利用全国30个省1995-2012年数据进行拟合,并采用最小二乘法和萤火虫优化算法分别计算了IPAT模型的参数,发现与传统最小二乘法相比,萤火虫算法优化后的模型显示出更高的拟合优度和更低的误差,模型系数也更为合理.文章在萤火虫优化的IPAT模型基础上估算了中国2030年的CO2排放强度,实证结栗显示,第三产业的发展有利于降低CO2排放强度;2030年全国CO2排放强度比2005年下降了66.34％,其中有20个省份CO2排放强度减排幅度超过60％;中国能够实现在2015巴黎国际气候大会上提出的碳减排目标.为了进一步发展低碳经济,各省应该充分重视经济转型对减少CO2排放的作用,改善以煤炭为主的能源消费结构,增加生物能、太阳能、风能、沼气等可再生资源的使用比重.     

城市家庭碳排放影响因素与跨城市差异分析

我国城市化发展既提高了城市居民收入水平同时又增加了碳排放.本文使用56个城市的微观家庭数据,在各个城市层面上建立不同类型能源消耗的行为方程,对包含固定收入、家庭规模和户主年龄的标准家庭居住碳排放进行有效的估算,同时对跨城市差异进行分析解释.结果表明,在以标准家庭居住碳排放为唯一衡量标准时,东川市和蚌埠市是碳排放最少的城市,而新乡市与郑州市则是碳排放最多的城市,很多低排放城市位于秦岭-淮河南北分界线的南侧,大城市排放要高于中小城市.通过对城市收入弹性的估算,发现相对富裕的家庭会增加消耗清洁燃料.一个家庭从低排放城市移动到高排放城市造成的环境成本占家庭年均收入的6.6％,同时低密度城市发展模式以及具有严寒气候的城市都会增加居住碳排放.这些实证研究结果可以辅助城市规划和城市管理者进行“低碳城市”或“低碳生活模式”等相关政策的制定.     

Landowner perceptions of the value of natural forest and natural grassland in a mosaic ecosystem in southern Brazil

The forest–grassland mosaics of southern Brazil have been subject to many land use and policy changes over the decades. Like many grasslands around the world, the Campos grasslands are declining with few conservation efforts underway. In contrast, forests receive much attention and many incentives. It is hypothesized that perception of land cover has the potential to shape ecosystems. Here we conduct a questionnaire to further our understanding of decision-making practices that alter landscapes (Campos grassland, Araucaria forest, agriculture and plantation) and direct land policies in the region. Our analysis reveals that plantations are significantly less desirable than the other landscape types. However, plantation land use has increased by 87 % over the past few decades, as a result of industry and government incentives. The proportions of other landscape types have remained consistent over the past two decades. Restoration of native vegetation is not a priority of landowners and restoration would require a financial incentive.     

Estimation of radiation doses from (137)Cs to frogs in a wetland ecosystem

Currently, there is no established methodology to estimate radiation doses to non-human biota. Therefore, in this study, various dose models were used to estimate radiation doses to moor frogs (Rana arvalis) in a wetland ecosystem contaminated with (137)Cs. External dose estimations were based on activity concentrations of (137)Cs in soil and water, considering changes in habitat over a life-cycle. Internal doses were calculated from the activity concentrations of (137)Cs measured in moor frogs. Depending on the dose model used, the results varied substantially. External dose rates ranged from 21 to 160 mGy/y, and internal dose rates varied between 1 and 14 mGy/y. Maximum total dose rates to frogs were below the expected safe level for terrestrial populations, but close to the suggested critical dose rate for amphibians. The results show that realistic assumptions in dose models are particularly important at high levels of contamination.     

Long-term effects of single potassium fertilization on 137Cs levels in plants and fungi in a boreal forest ecosystem

We examined the long-term effects of a single application of potassium (K) fertilizer (100 kg K ha⁻¹) in 1992 on ¹³⁷Cs uptake in a forest ecosystem in central Sweden. ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations were determined in three low-growing perennial shrubs, heather (Calluna vulgaris), lingonberry (Vaccinium vitis-idaea) and bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus), and in four wild fungal species (Cortinarius semisanguineus, Lactarius rufus, Rozites caperata and Suillus variegatus). Uptake of ¹³⁷Cs by plants and fungi growing on K-fertilized plots 17 years after application of the K fertilizer was significantly lower than in corresponding species growing in a non-fertilized control area. The ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration was 21-58% lower in fungal sporocarps and 40-61% lower in plants in the K-fertilized area compared with the control. Over the study period, this decrease in ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration was more consistent in plants than in fungi, although the effect was statistically significant and strongly pronounced in all species. The effect of K fertilization in reducing ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fungi and plants decreased over time but was still significant in 2009, 17 years after fertilization. This suggests that application of K fertilizer to forests is an appropriate and effective long-term measure to decrease radiocaesium accumulation in plants and fungi.     

Impacts of climate change on the distribution of species and communities in the Chilean Mediterranean ecosystem

The Mediterranean region of Chile is considered a biodiversity hot spot. An increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, as projected for the end of this century by global circulation models, would likely change the distribution of the sclerophyllous thorny shrubland and woodland. In order to assess those potential impacts, the MAXENT algorithm was used to project potential changes in the distribution of the Mediterranean ecosystem. Ecological niche models were fitted and used to project the potential distribution of these forest ecosystems by the end of the century. Projections were made using data from the PRECIS model for the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios and two strategies of occupancy: free migration and non-migration. Distribution models of sclerophyllous, woodland and shrubland performed accurately representing current species’ distribution. When we assume non-migration responses under climate change scenarios, results reveal a decrease in the distribution area for all the species. The areas where the highest reduction in a suitable environment was found are located along the coastline, where higher temperature increases have been projected. For native ecosystems from the Andean Range region, such as communities dominated by thorny species, a stable habitat was found, associated with a higher adaptation capability to future climatic projections. Hence, in the future, buffer zones originated by “topo-climatic” conditions might play a key role in protecting Central Chile biodiversity.     

Estimating the amount and distribution of radon flux density from the soil surface in China

Based on an idealized model, both the annual and the seasonal radon ((222)Rn) flux densities from the soil surface at 1099 sites in China were estimated by linking a database of soil (226)Ra content and a global ecosystems database. Digital maps of the (222)Rn flux density in China were constructed in a spatial resolution of 25 km x 25 km by interpolation among the estimated data. An area-weighted annual average (222)Rn flux density from the soil surface across China was estimated to be 29.7+/-9.4 mBq m(-2)s(-1). Both regional and seasonal variations in the (222)Rn flux densities are significant in China. Annual average flux densities in the southeastern and northwestern China are generally higher than those in other regions of China, because of high soil (226)Ra content in the southeastern area and high soil aridity in the northwestern one. The seasonal average flux density is generally higher in summer/spring than winter, since relatively higher soil temperature and lower soil water saturation in summer/spring than other seasons are common in China.     

Communities of hydrobionts developing at the water-rock interface in Lake Baikal

Development of benthic communities on rocks from the interdisciplinary test site near Cape Berezovyi (southern Baikal) is analyzed. Rock plates were placed on the bottom in the shallow-water zone of Baikal for six months, and a community consisting of microorganisms, microphytobenthos, and meiobenthos developed on them. The development and activity of hydrobionts depended on the chemical composition and structure of the rock. Marble and granite plates were populated by them more selectively than amphibolite plates. It is supposed that the biota plays an important role in destruction of rocks in the shallow-water zone of Baikal.     

Persistence of radon-222 flux during monsoon at a geothermal zone in Nepal

The Syabru-Bensi hydrothermal zone, Langtang region (Nepal), is characterized by high radon-222 and CO₂ discharge. Seasonal variations of gas fluxes were studied on a reference transect in a newly discovered gas discharge zone. Radon-222 and CO₂ fluxes were measured with the accumulation chamber technique, coupled with the scintillation flask method for radon. In the reference transect, fluxes reach exceptional mean values, as high as 8700 ± 1500 g m⁻² d⁻¹ for CO₂ and 3400 ± 100 × 10⁻³ Bq m⁻² s⁻¹ for radon. Gases fluxes were measured in September 2007 during the monsoon and during the dry winter season, in December 2007 to January 2008 and in December 2008 to January 2009. Contrary to expectations, radon and its carrier gas fluxes were similar during both seasons. The integrated flux along this transect was approximately the same for radon, with a small increase of 11 ± 4% during the wet season, whereas it was reduced by 38 ± 5% during the monsoon for CO₂. In order to account for the persistence of the high gas emissions during monsoon, watering experiments have been performed at selected radon measurement points. After watering, radon flux decreased within 5 min by a factor of 2–7 depending on the point. Subsequently, it returned to its original value, firstly, by an initial partial recovery within 3–4 h, followed by a slow relaxation, lasting around 10 h and possibly superimposed by diurnal variations. Monsoon, in this part of the Himalayas, proceeds generally by brutal rainfall events separated by two- or three-day lapses. Thus, the recovery ability shown in the watering experiments accounts for the observed long-term persistence of gas discharge. This persistence is an important asset for long-term monitoring, for example to study possible temporal variations associated with stress accumulation and release.     

Atmospheric NO2 and CO concentration in Lima,Peru

The atmospheric concentration of NO2 in Lima, Peru was measured through 1 year using passive samplers. The concentration was stable and evident seasonal change was not observed. Also, the distribution of NO2 concentration in entire Lima was monitored twice in different seasons. The average NO2 concentrations at 33 and 27 sites of these monitoring were 17.1 and 15.3 ppb, respectively. NO2 distribution was high in the downtown area and decreased gradually with distance from there. The wind that almost always blew from the ocean had a great influence on it. High NO2 level and the change of CO concentration suggest that the residential area in the northeast side forms a topological channel among hills to blow out the pollutants from the downtown area.     

Evaluation of 14C abundance in soil respiration using acclerator mass spectrometry

To clarify the behavior of 14C in terrestrial ecosystems, 14C abundance in soil respiration was evaluated in an urban forest with a new method involving a closed chamber technique and 14C measurement by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Soil respiration had a higher Delta14C than the contemporary atmosphere. This indicates that a significant portion of soil respiration is derived from the decomposition of soil organic matter enriched in 14C by atmospheric nuclear weapons tests, with a notable time lag between atmospheric 14C addition and re-emission from soil. On the other hand, delta14C in soil respiration demonstrated that 14C abundance ratio itself in soil-respired CO2 is not always high compared with that in atmospheric CO2 because of the isotope fractionation during plant photosynthesis and microbial decomposition of soil organic matter. The Delta14C in soil respiration was slightly lower in August than in March, suggesting a relatively high contribution of plant root respiration and decomposition of newly accumulated and/or 14C-depleted soil organic matter to the total soil respiration in August.     

14C content in vegetation in the vicinities of Brazilian nuclear power reactors

(14)C specific activities were measured in grass samples collected around Brazilian nuclear power reactors. The specific activity values varied between 227 and 299 Bq/kg C. Except for two samples which showed (14)C specific activities 22% above background values, half of the samples showed background specific activities, and the other half had a (14)C excess of 1-18%. The highest specific activities were found close to the nuclear power plants and along the main wind directions (NE and NNE). The activity values were found to decrease with increasing distance from the reactors. The unexpectedly high (14)C excess values found in two samples were related to the local topography, which favors (14)C accumulation and limits the dispersion of the plume. The results indicate a clear (14)C anthropogenic signal within 5 km around the nuclear power plants which is most prominent along northeastwards, the prevailing wind direction.     

Economic Analysis of CO2 Emission Trends in China

Climate change is one of hot spots all around the world. China, the second biggest CO₂ emitter, is facing increasingly severe pressure to reduce CO₂ emission. The article first describes Kaya Identity and its policy implications. Second, it uses the modified Kaya Identity and makes decomposition without residues on CO₂ emission during the period 1971-2005. Taking into account the changes of macroeconomic background, it conducts a detailed analysis in terms of CO₂ emission trend from 4^th Five Year Plan through 10^th Five Year Plan. The decomposition results indicate that economic development and increase in population are major driving forces, and that improvement in energy efficiency contributes to the reduction of CO₂ emission, and that decarbonization in primary energy structure is also an important strategic choice. Finally, the article stresses that in CO₂ order to realize the binding target of 20% reduction in GDP energy intensity during the 11^th Five Year Plan, China should speed up the readjustment of the industrial structure and energetically develop the energy-efficient technologies and clean fuel technology, which will effectively promote the country to reduce CO₂ emission and contribute to the mitigation of climate change.     

中国CO2排放趋势的经济分析

气候变化问题已成为国际社会高度关注的热点,中国作为世界上第二大CO2排放国,正面临着越来越严峻的减排压力。在讨论Kaya恒等式及其政策涵义的基础上,利用修改后的Kaya恒等式对1971-2005年期间中国的CO2排放进行了无残差分解,并结合宏观经济背景的变迁对从“四五”到“十五”计划期间的排放变化展开详细分析。结果表明经济的快速发展和人口的增长是CO2排放增加的主要驱动因素,能源效率的提高有利于减少CO2排放,而能源结构的低碳化则是降低CO2五排放水平的重要战略选择．最后强调指出加快产业结构调整、发展高能效技术以及清洁燃料技术等政策选择不仅能促进“十一五”期间单位GDP能耗降低20％约束性目标的实现。而且也能有效减少中国CO2的排放量。为减缓气候变化做出贡献。     

Disposition and metabolic profiling of [14C]-decabromodiphenyl ether in pregnant Wistar rats

Fully brominated diphenyl ether, decabromodiphenyl ether (DBDE), is one of the most widely used brominated flame retardants worldwide. Little data is available about the metabolic fate of DBDE in animal models and nothing at all about the extent of foetal exposure. In this work, pregnant Wistar rats were force-fed with 99.8% pure [14C]-DBDE over 96 h at a late stage of gestation (days 16 to 19). More than 19% of the administered dose was recovered in tissues and carcasses, demonstrating efficient absorption of DBDE despite its high molecular weight and low solubility. The highest concentrations of DBDE residues were found in endocrine glands (adrenals, ovaries) and in the liver, with lower values recorded for fat. In all tissue extracts, most of the radioactivity was associated with unchanged DBDE. The use of high-grade purity [14C]-DBDE allowed quantification of several metabolites present both in maternal tissues and in foetuses. These biotransformation products accounted for 9-27% of the extractable radioactivity in tissues and 14% of that in foetuses. Three nona-BDEs and one octa-BDE were identified by LC-APPI/MS. The unequivocal characterisation of a hydroxylated octa-BDE isolated from liver was confirmed by NMR. In rat, the main metabolic pathways of DBDE are debromination and oxidation. DBDE, and very likely most of its metabolites, are able to cross the placental barrier in rat. Metabolic profiles, obtained in vivo for the first time, demonstrated the presence of DBDE and major biotransformation products in endocrine glands as well as in foetuses. The biological activity of these metabolites still needs to be assessed in order to better understand the potential toxicity of DBDE.     

贸易隐含污染物测算及结构绿色转型研究

该文根据中国2002年和2007年非竞争型投入产出表、OECD的国外投入产出表和GTAP Version 7.0的CO2排放强度等数据,利用多国投入产出模型方法测算了中国对外贸易中隐含污染物,分析了贸易隐含污染物的行业结构分布以及在主要贸易伙伴国中的贸易流向,并通过结构分解方法分析了出口规模总量、出口结构变化、投入产出表中间结构变化及单位产值CO2排放量四大因素对出口贸易隐含CO2的贡献。研究结果表明:2002-2007年间,我国对外贸易创造了巨大贸易顺差,同时也带来了大量隐含CO2、SO2顺差,2002年和2007年贸易隐含CO2顺差达6.21×108t和1.38×109t。2002年和2007年贸易隐含SO2顺差分别为323.99万t和674.54万t;出口贸易规模的扩大使我国出口贸易隐含CO2大幅增加,带来了巨大的环境压力,且出口贸易结构、投入产出中间结构变化也增加了出口贸易隐含CO2的排放。但是单位产值的CO2排放量的降低对抑制隐含CO2增长值发挥了十分重要作用,故需要进一步优化贸易结构,调整产业结构,提高能源利用效率,也就是贸易结构绿色转型势在必行。