Nonstationarity in Water Resources – Central European Perspective1

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., 2011. Nonstationarity in Water Resources – Central European Perspective. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3): 550‐562. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00549.x Abstract: Nonstationarity in variables describing water quantity and water quality characteristics is reviewed, and an attempt to interpret nonstationary behavior is made with particular reference to the Central European region. Nonstationarity in water‐related variables results from several nonclimatic and climatic factors. Albeit evidence of climate change in Central Europe is clear, anthropogenic nonclimatic change, such as land‐use or land‐cover changes, water engineering measures, and in‐catchment water management play important roles. Systemic socioeconomic and political changes are the main factors responsible for the observed change in water quality in the region. The observed climate change in the Central European region has not been dramatic enough to persuade the water management community that changes of standards, criteria, and evaluation procedures should be made. Projections for the future largely differ between models and scenarios, hence information obtained from climate models is found too vague to be used. However, the water management community shows interest in climate change observations, projections, and impact assessments. Numerous hydrological research projects to tackle nonstationarity have been undertaken in the region. Also important acts of legislation, such as the European Union’s Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive can be regarded in the context of nonstationarity of water‐related variables.     

Environmental assessment in countries in transition: evolution in a changing context

Over the last fifteen years, Environmental Assessment systems of transitional societies of Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia have undergone dramatic change from appraisals integrated into centrally planned economies to formal procedures aimed to ensure interdisciplinary analysis of environmental impacts and linked to publicly accountable decision-making. In most Central European nations, EA systems have been radically reformed to approximate the procedures used in developed countries, particularly in the European Union. In contrast, EA in most of the former Soviet republics has been reformed more gradually and is still based on the so-called State Environmental Review procedure inherited from the USSR and substantially different from 'Western' EA. About one-third of the transitional countries (in the Balkans, the Caucasus and Central Asia) have, so far, failed to establish functioning EA systems. Throughout the region, there has been a gap between EA legislation and practice, especially concerning interdisciplinary analysis of environmental impacts, public participation, and utilisation of EA findings in decision-making. A key driving force in the reform of EA systems has been the change in their societal context, the so-called 'process of transition'. Three main policy agendas--environmental protection, reforms of decision-making, and conforming to international requirements--along with the institutional context of EA regulations and practice have influenced both the change of EA systems over time and the regional variations in the patterns of their evolution. This study suggests that an effective reform of an EA system should be context-sensitive, or be 'in gear' with the political and economic transition. Future EA research should consider their changing societal contexts and focused on practical effects of applying EA procedures.     

The Commons in Transition: Agrarian and Environmental Change in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper analyzes institutional dynamics surrounding common-pool resources in postsocialist Central and Eastern Europe. It is conceived in close conjunction with the case studies by Penov, Schleyer, and Wasilewski and Krukowski (this issue). The purpose of this paper is to frame the individual case inquiries, compare their findings, and relate those to broader agrarian and environmental changes in the region.The case studies report a broad shift in resource governance from the previously dominant legal and administrative state hierarchies towards markets. In addition, state power has moved from central towards local authorities. The waning and decentralization of state power has caused the emergence of significant gaps between property legislation and rights-in-practice, which have been particularly stark in fragmented political systems. The discrepancy between legal texts and rights-in-practice leads to the exclusion of wider interests in favor of individual interests in the management of common-pool resources, resulting in resource deterioration and dwindling resource stocks. Thus, the comparative assessment suggests a tentative framework for understanding the effects of postsocialist transformations on governance of the commons and environmental change in Central and Eastern Europe. Its findings indicate an additional dimension to the diversity and distributive conflicts characterizing postsocialist privatization: the distribution of various rights to a resource among different actors. The findings also suggest the need for postsocialist states to take an active role in the governance of common-pool resources, particularly in the enforcement of legal rights. Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

The metal mining industry in Eastern Europe

The mining industry has been one of the backbones of the socialist countries of Eastern Europe, not only in economic, but also in political, terms. Three years after the beginning of economic reforms, the mining industry in all the Eastern European countries is facing dramatic changes. Most mines are mining ores below acceptable cut-off grades, and there is no hope of finding new, richer deposits. Downstream metallurgical industries will need to replace their former suppliers. In addition, the social contract that had been maintained under the socialist governments is about to be undone and a new form of internal organization must be found. The success of the economic reforms in Eastern Europe depends upon the capacity to develop new industrial relations: the large mining combinates will have to be transformed into competitive capitalist enterprises and the role of the state must be redefined. Prospects for this transformation vary greatly, from metal to metal and from country to country. Finally, restructuring in Eastern Europe will also affect European and world markets, both on the supply and demand sides. The integration of the Eastern European mining industries into the international mining community should be the medium-term goal of all the participants .     

Towards networked governance: improving interagency communication and collaboration for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation in Australia

Major disasters, such as bushfires or floods, place significant stress on scarce public resources. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this stress. An integrated approach to disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) could reduce the stress by encouraging the more efficient use of pooled resources and expertise. A comparative analysis of three extreme climate-related events that occurred in Australia between 2009 and 2011 indicated that a strategy to improve interagency communication and collaboration would be a key factor in this type of policy/planning integration. These findings are in accord with the concepts of Joined-up Government and Network Governance. Five key reforms are proposed: developing a shared policy vision; adopting multi-level planning; integrating legislation; networking organisations; and establishing cooperative funding. These reforms are examined with reference to the related research literature in order to identify potential problems associated with their implementation. The findings are relevant for public policy generally but are particularly useful for CCA and DRM.     

Calibrating climate change policies: the causes and consequences of sustained under-reaction

We apply insights from the recent literature on disproportionate policy reactions to the case of climate change policy-making. We show when and why climate change exhibits features of a sustained under-reaction: Governments may react to concerns about climate change not through substantive change but by efforts to manage blame strategically. As long as they can avoid blame for potential negative policy outcomes policy-makers can act to deny problems, or implement only small-scale or symbolic reforms. While this pattern may change as climate change problems worsen and public recognition of the issue and what can be done about it alters, opportunities to manage blame will still exist. Governments will only revert to more substantive interventions when attempts to fatalistically frame the problem as unavoidable fail in the face of increased public visibility.     

Linkages between biodiversity conservation and global climate change in small island developing States (SIDS)

Global climate change is an important cause of biodiversity loss. The conservation, sustainable management and use of biodiversity resources are key factors that can be effectively used to minimize the adverse impacts of global climate change. Efforts to understand and address the linkages between global climate change and biodiversity loss are both urgent and timely. Integrating responses related to these two global environmental challenges is especially relevant for small island developing States (SIDS) because the adverse impacts of climate change can impose severe stresses on biodiversity resources that are fragile, vulnerable and already under stress and the people who depend upon them. This paper argues that comprehensive assessments of adverse impacts of global climate change on the biodiversity resources of SIDS, and an improved understanding of relevant climate change related adaptation measures and sustainable energy policies (that are based on the principles of conservation, sustainable management and use of biodiversity resources) will enable SIDS to become more resilient and to develop better response capacities.     

Policy And Practice The Future Tenure of Rural Public Lands in Slovakia

The adoption of democracy and the market economy ideology in post-communist Central and Eastern Europe is encouraging changes in rural public land policy. A system of state public land is being partly dismantled, to be replaced by private ownership.This paper exploresthe present dynamics of the rural public land reprivatization process in Slovakia. In Slovakia approximately 40% of rural public land are being reprivatized. Evidence indicates that the reprivatization of public land is having a detrimental effect on the management of State Forests, National Parks and game management.The integrated, centrally planned public land system of the communist era is being fragmented by reprivatization. This paper argues that this process is creating barriers to the achievement of the sustainable management of the natural resources of rural Slovakia. Recent Governmentof Slovakia laws and policies on sustainable development and environmental management, and adherence to international environmental conventions may provide opportunities for enlightened change in the reprivatization process. A public land system in a democratic free market economy can be an effective mechanism to secure the protection and the sustainable managementof forests, farmland, game, outstanding landscapes and wildlife. This is an opportune time to debate the future of rural public land in Central and Eastern Europe in order that enlightened policy making may be fostered.     

The shadow of the past: environmental issues and institutional learning in EU enlargement processes

This paper compares the role of environmental issues in negotiating Spanish membership of the European Union (EU) with the ongoing enlargement talks with Central and Eastern European countries. The paper first argues that the EU has recognized a need to change the way in which it has traditionally managed environmental issues in enlargement processes. Second, the paper provides evidence of learning processes at the Community level that could have effected a change in Community approaches to enlargement in the environmental field. However, the paper shows that the fundamental principles and procedures applied in preparing for eastern enlargement match those used in previous enlargement rounds, resembling a largely technical exercise with exclusive focus on the applicants' ability to align with the acquis communautaire and the length of transition periods. The lack of sufficient adaptation or reform suggests that path dependence and institutional inertia have constrained the scope for innovations at the level of policy strategy and institutions, for which the shadow of the past has reinforced established patterns of institutional behaviour and practices. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Perceptions of climate change on the Island of Providencia

Climate change-related impacts have the capacity to substantially influence Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Caribbean. Currently, many SIDS are engaged in large-scale vulnerability assessments that aim to identify, analyse, and inform solutions to mitigate climate change-related impacts. Many of these assessments, while useful, place little emphasis on the local stakeholders' perceptions of climate change. One such Caribbean community impacted by climate-related change is Providence Island in Colombia. Using a vulnerability assessment framework (Marshall, P.A. et al. 2010. A framework for social adaptation to climate change: sustaining tropical coastal communities and industries. Gland: IUCN Publication Services), researchers interviewed island residents (N = 23) about their perceptions of climate change, impacts on the local environment, and how the island community may adapt. All interviews were transcribed and analysed using a priori and open coding to identify patterns of and relationships between stakeholders' responses. Results indicate that local perceptions of climate change are linked to (1) environmental knowledge, (2) environmental awareness, attitudes, and beliefs, and (3) perceptions of risk. Implications for local adaptive strategies, education, communication, and suggestions for engagement at the local level are discussed.     

Environmentalism and elitism: a conceptual and empirical analysis

The frequent charge that environmentalism is elitist is examined conceptually and empirically. First, the concept of elitism is analyzed by distinguishing between three types of accusations made against the environmental movement: (a)compositional elitism suggests that environmentalists are drawn from privileged socioeconomic strata, (b)ideological elitism suggests that environmental reforms are a subterfuge for distributing benefits to environmentalists and/or costs to others, and (c)impact elitism suggests that environmental reforms, whether intentionally or not, do in fact have regressive social impacts.The evidence bearing on each of the three types of elitism is examined in some detail, and the following conclusions are drawn: Compositional elitism is an exaggeration, for although environmentalists are typically above average in socioeconomic status (as are most sociopolitical activists), few belong to the upper class. Ideological elitism may hold in some instances, but environmentalists have shown increasing sensitivity to equity concerns and there is little evidence of consistent pursuit of self-interest. Impact elitism is the most important issue, and also the most difficult to assess. It appears that there has been a general tendency for environmental reforms to have regressive impacts. However, it is increasingly recognized that problems such as workplace pollution and toxic waste contamination disproportionately affect the lower socioeconomic strata, and thus reforms aimed at such problems will likely have more progressive impacts.This is Michigan Agricultural Experiment Station Journal article no. 11508.     

Local Governance and Climate Change: Reflections on the Swedish Experience

Abstract

The focus of this article is the Swedish experience of local governance and climate change, including mitigation and adaptation. The municipal response to these two challenges is set within a broader policy context that acknowledges Sweden as a pioneer in environmental governance, including its comparatively high ambitions with regard to the reduction of greenhouse ga emissions. Central–local relations in climate policy are analysed, and climate change mitigation and adaptation are exemplified by some snapshots of municipal initiatives, including the popular habit of networking between municipalities within as well as across national borders. In conclusion we briefly evaluate the Swedish local governance experience of climate change mitigation and adaptation to date as characterized by radical rhetoric and ambitious goals combined with a lot of promising initiatives, although still with fairly modest results in terms of tangible outcomes. Finally, we reflect upon what we consider to be the most important questions for future research on local governance and climate change.     

The Energy Efficiency 2000 Project and energy-efficiency demonstration zones in Eastern and Central Europe

Energy economy and efficiency are the two most common energy priorities of EC member states. Increasing energy efficiency is also a way of making EC technical assistance to Central and Eastern Europe more effective. The Energy Efficiency 2000 project, and in particular the establishment of energy-efficiency demonstration zones, are key features in this process.     

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Supply Stress in the Haihe River Basin,Northern China1

Ji, Yuhe, Liding Chen, and Ranhao Sun, 2012. Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Supply Stress in the Haihe River Basin, Northern China. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 999‐1007. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00671.x Abstract: Water resources are becoming increasingly stressed under the influence of climate change and population growth in the Haihe River Basin, Northern China. Assessing the temporal and spatial variability of water supply stress is urgently needed to mitigate water crisis caused by water resource reallocation. Water supply and use data were compiled for the time period of 1998‐2003 in this synthesis study. The Water Supply Stress Index (WSSI) as defined as Water Demand/Water Supply was used to quantitate whether water supply could meet the demand of human activities across the study region. We found a large spatial gradient of water supply stress in the study region, being much higher in the eastern subbasins (ranging from 2.56 to 4.31) than the west subbasins (ranging from 0.56 to 1.92). The eastern plain region not only suffered more serious water supply stress but also had a much higher interannual variability than the western hilly region. The uneven spatial distribution of water supply stress might result from the distribution of land use, population, and climate. Future climate change and rapid economic development are likely to aggravate the existing water crisis in the study region.     

Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Stream Temperature I: Daily Flow and Stream Temperature Projections

Freshwater mussels (order Unionida) are a highly imperiled group of organisms that are at risk from rising stream temperatures (T). There is a need to understand the potential effects of land use (LU) and climate change (CC) on stream T and have a measure of uncertainty. We used available downscaled climate projections and LU change simulations to simulate the potential effects on average daily stream T from 2020 to 2060. Monte Carlo simulations were run, and a novel technique to analyze results was used to assess changes in hydrologic and stream T response. Simulations of daily mean T were used as input to our stochastic hourly T model. CC effects were on average two orders of magnitude greater than LU impacts on mean daily stream T. LU change affected stream T primarily in headwater streams, on average up to 2.1°C over short durations, and projected CC affected stream T, on average 2.1‐3.3°C by 2060. Daily mean flow and T ratios from Monte Carlo simulations indicated greater variance in the response of streamflow (up to 55%) to LU change than in the response of stream T (up to 9%), and greater variance in headwater stream segments compared to higher order stream segments for both streamflow and T response. Simulations indicated that combined effects of climate and LU change were not additive, suggesting a complex interaction and that forecasting long‐term stream T response requires simulating CC and LU change simultaneously.     

Differences among model simulations of climate change on the scale of resource regions

The climate simulations from atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) are often used to analyze the potential effects of climate change on environmental resources. It has been demonstrated that there are differences among the simulations from various GCMs, on spatial scales ranging from global to regional. This paper quantifies the differences in temperature and precipitation simulated by three major GCMs for four specific regions: an agricultural region (the North American winter wheat belt), a hydrologic region (the Great Basin), a demographic region (the high-density population corridor of the northeast United States), and a political region (the state of Texas). Both the current (control) climate and the climatic response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) are consideredIn each region, even when the data are averaged on a seasonal basis, marked differences occurred in the areal average climate simulated by the different GCMs for both the control climate and the doubled-CO₂ climate. Thus, climate impact studies based on the simulations of more than one GCM could easily yield a range of possible results     

Place attachment,place identity,and place memory: Restoring the forgotten city past

This paper investigates collective memory in inhabitants of two twin cities, Lviv (Ukraine, previously Lwów, Poland) and Wroc?aw (Poland, previously Breslau, Germany). Due to territorial changes in Eastern and Central Europe after World War II, the two cities changed their state belonging and—consequently—their populations. This study focused on memory of residence place and on its relationship with place identity and place attachment.     

Vulnerability of the South African farming sector to climate change and variability: An indicator approach

This paper analyses the vulnerability of South African agriculture to climate change and variability by developing a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across the nine provinces of the country. Nineteen environmental and socio‐economic indicators are identified to reflect the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results of the study show that the regions most exposed to climate change and variability do not always overlap with those experiencing high sensitivity or low adaptive capacity. Furthermore, vulnerability to climate change and variability is intrinsically linked with social and economic development. The Western Cape and Gauteng provinces, which have high levels of infrastructure development, high literacy rates, and low shares of agriculture in total GDP, are relatively low on the vulnerability index. In contrast, the highly vulnerable regions of Limpopo, Kwazulu‐Natal and the Eastern Cape are characterised by densely populated rural areas, large numbers of small‐scale farmers, high dependency on rain‐fed agriculture and high land degradation. These large differences in the extent of vulnerability among provinces suggest that policymakers should develop region‐specific policies and address climate change at the local level.     

典型发达国家适应气候变化资金机制及对中国的启示

气候变化是全人类面临的严峻挑战,我国受到气候变化的不利影响更为显著,加快采取雄心勃勃的适应气候变化行动显得尤为重要,但资金机制一直是我国适应进程中的主要障碍,亟须借鉴国际经验构建完善适应气候变化的资金机制。基于此,本文首先简要分析国际适应气候变化资金机制的基本情况,然后选取适应进程较为完善的美、英、德、日等典型发达国家,分别从适应政策体系、国内适应资金和国际援助资金等三个方面梳理总结各国适应气候变化资金机制,最后分析我国适应气候变化资金机制及存在的问题,并提出对我国适应气候变化资金机制的启示。研究发现,《联合国气候变化框架公约》及其气候变化国际谈判进程是各国推进适应气候变化资金机制的主要动因,发达国家重视适应政策的法制化,但政策力度和运行模式有所不同,公共部门是各国适应资金的主要来源,私人资金潜力尚待挖掘,国际气候援助注重减缓与适应并重,但援助力度有待加强。未来我国应从完善适应气候变化顶层设计、建立适应气候变化资金保障机制、提高适应气候援助力度、加强国际交流与合作等方面完善我国适应气候变化资金机制。