The significance of environmental impacts: an exploration of the concept

Since environmental impact assessment (EIA) is concerned primarily withsignificant environmental impacts, the concept of impact significance deserves to be defined and applied rigorously. In this article use of the term over the past 15 years in EIA documentation is reviewed. Some recent attempts at elucidating the concept are summarized. Four perspectives on impact significance that emerged from a series of workshops on the ecological basis for EIA are presented. These perspectives include (a) statistical (related to problems of isolating project-induced changes from natural variation), (b) ecological (related to the importance of project-induced changes from a purely ecological perspective), (c) social (related to the acceptability of project-induced changes in important environmental attributes), and (d) project (related to whether project-induced changes will indeed influence project decision making). The following synthesis is proposed: Any exercise in judging the significance of an environmental impact should thoroughly consider (a) the importance of the environmental attribute in question to project decision makers, (2) the distribution of change in time and space, (c) the magnitude of change, and (d) the reliability with which change has been predicted or measured. The implications of considering these factors are discussed.     

Cadmium: Simulation of environmental control strategies to reduce exposure

The effects of selected environmental control strategies on human dietary and respiratory exposure to environmental cadmium (Cd) have been simulated. For each control strategy, mean Cd dietary and respiratory exposures are presented for a twenty-year simulation period.Human exposures related to cadmium are associated with both process waste disposal and product disposal. Dietary exposure is by far the dominant mechanism for Cd intake. Dietary exposure related to aqueous discharges is primarily a result of municipal sludge landspreading, whereas that associated with emissions to the atmosphere derives mainly from the deposition on cropland of airborne particulates from product incineration. Only relatively small dietary exposure reductions are possible through restrictions on anysingle Cd use. Combinations of waste management and environmental control measures promise greater reductions in dietary and respiratory exposure than those achievable through use restrictions.Work supported by Office of Toxic Substances U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.     

Multiple-resource modeling as a tool for conservation: Its applicability in Mexico

The current Mexican environmental law provides the legal basis for comprehensive land-use planning. Under the law, development of natural ecosystems must combine goals, policies, and practices towards the sustainable use of natural resources and the protection of biological diversity. Thus, ecosystem manipulation must be able to counter fragmentation of natural ecosystems and isolation of natural reserves, while providing for human needs. Assessment of the potential of natural ecosystems and management impacts are required. Multiple-resource simulation is an assessment and land-use planning tool that permits managers and decision makers to comply with the law, providing a flexible, user-oriented system that can meet the needs of managers, conservationists, and researchers. A multiple-resource model and an example of how it can be applied to meet planning needs is presented for discussion.     

System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts

Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.     

Assessment of environmental impacts part two: Data collection

Intervention analysis is a relatively new branch of time series analysis. The power of this technique, which gives the probability that changes in mean level can be distinguished from natural data variability, is quite sensitive to the way the data are collected. The principal independent variables influenced by the data collection design are overall sample size, sampling frequency, and the relative length of record before the occurrence of the event (intervention) that is postulated to have caused a change in mean process level.For three of the four models investigated, data should be collected so that the post-intervention record is substantially longer than the pre-intervention record. This is in conflict with the intuitive approach, which would be to collect equal amounts of data before and after the intervention. The threshold (minimum) level of change that can be detected is quite high unless sample sizes of at least 50 and preferably 100 are available; this minimum level is dependent on the complexity of the model required to describe the response of the process mean to the intervention. More complex models tend to require larger sample sizes for the same threshold detectable change level.Uniformity of sampling frequency is a key consideration. Environmental data collection programs have not historically been oriented toward data analysis using time series techniques, thus eliminating a potentially powerful tool from use in many environmental assessment applications.     

Assessing hydrological impact of potential land use change through hydrological and land use change modeling for the Kishwaukee River basin (USA)

We connected a cellular, dynamic, spatial urban growth model and a semi-distributed continuous hydrology model to quantitatively predict streamflow in response to possible future urban growth at a basin scale. The main goal was to demonstrate the utility of the approach for informing public planning policy and investment choices. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was set up and calibrated for the Kishwaukee River basin in the Midwestern USA and was repeatedly run with various land use scenarios generated either by the urban growth model (LEAMluc) or hypothetically. The results indicate that (1) the land use scenarios generated by LEAMluc result in little changes in total runoff but some noticeable changes in surface flow; (2) the argument that low flows tend to decrease with more urbanized areas in a basin was confirmed in this study but the selection of indicators for low flows can result in misleading conclusions; (3) dynamic simulation modeling by connecting a distributed land use change model and a semi-distributed hydrological model can be a good decision support tool demanding reasonable amount of efforts and capable of long-term scenario-based assessments.     

Soil erosion and non-point source pollution impacts assessment with the aid of multi-temporal remote sensing images

Soil erosion associated with non-point source pollution is viewed as a process of land degradation in many terrestrial environments. Careful monitoring and assessment of land use variations with different temporal and spatial scales would reveal a fluctuating interface, punctuated by changes in rainfall and runoff, movement of people, perturbation from environmental disasters, and shifts in agricultural activities and cropping patterns. The use of multi-temporal remote sensing images in support of environmental modeling analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) environment leading to identification of a variety of long-term interactions between land, resources, and the built environment has been a highly promising approach in recent years. This paper started with a series of supervised land use classifications, using SPOT satellite imagery as a means, in the Kao-Ping River Basin, South Taiwan. Then, it was designed to differentiate the variations of eight land use patterns in the past decade, including orchard, farmland, sugarcane field, forest, grassland, barren, community, and water body. Final accuracy was confirmed based on interpretation of available aerial photographs and global positioning system (GPS) measurements. Finally, a numerical simulation model (General Watershed Loading Function, GWLF) was used to relate soil erosion to non-point source pollution impacts in the coupled land and river water systems. Research findings indicate that while the decadal increase in orchards poses a significant threat to water quality, the continual decrease in forested land exhibits a potential impact on water quality management. Non-point source pollution, contributing to part of the downstream water quality deterioration of the Kao-Ping River system in the last decade, has resulted in an irreversible impact on land integrity from a long-term perspective.     

A GIS-based approach for the screening assessment of noise and vibration impacts from transit projects

Urban transportation projects are essential in increasing the efficiency of moving people and goods within a city, and between cities. Environmental impacts from such projects must be evaluated and mitigated, as applicable. Spatial modeling is a valuable tool for quantifying the potential level of environmental consequences within the context of an environmental impact assessment (EIA) study. This paper presents a GIS-based tool for the assessment of airborne-noise and ground-borne vibration from public transit systems, and its application to an actual project. The tool is based on the US Federal Transit Administration's (FTA) approach, and incorporates spatial information, satellite imaging, geostatistical modeling, and software programming. The tool is applied on a case study of initial environmental evaluation of a light rail transit project in an urban city in the Middle East, to evaluate alternative layouts. The tool readily allowed the alternative evaluation and the results were used as input to a multi-criteria analytic framework.     

Screening for EIA in India: Enhancing effectiveness through ecological carrying capacity approach

Developing countries across the world have embraced the policy of high economic growth as a means to reduce poverty. This economic growth largely based on industrial output is fast degrading the ecosystems, jeopardizing their long term sustainability. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) has long been recognized as a tool which can help in protecting the ecosystems and aid sustainable development. The Screening guidelines for EIA reflect the level of commitment the nation displays towards tightening its environmental protection system. The paper analyses the screening process for EIA in India and dissects the rationale behind the exclusions and thresholds set in the screening process. The screening process in India is compared with that of the European Union with the aim of understanding the extent of deviations from a screening approach in the context of better economic development. It is found that the Indian system excludes many activities from the purview of screening itself when compared to the EU. The constraints responsible for these exclusions are discussed and the shortcomings of the current command and control system of environmental management in India are also explained. It is suggested that an ecosystem carrying capacity based management system can provide significant inputs to enhance the effectiveness of EIA process from screening to monitoring.     

Indicators for sustainable energy development in Mexico

This article presents a summary of a study on the application to the Mexican energy sector of a core set of indicators for sustainable energy development (ISED), developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The study focused on the elaboration of socio‐economic and environmental indicators related to energy production and use, and was aimed at assessing Mexico's existing energy policies and identifying strategies and possible policies that could bring about improvements in major priority areas: energy intensity, atmospheric emissions, energy import dependency and use of renewables. While positive trends have been observed in relation to energy intensity and atmospheric emissions, Mexico is becoming more dependent on imports of gasoline, natural gas and other high‐value secondary energy sources, while exporting significant amounts of primary fuels, such as crude oil. Also, no significant increase has been observed in the use of renewable sources of energy. Social, economic and environmental policies need to be formulated for the energy sector and related investments (public and private) reinforced so that all economic sectors have access to energy from cleaner and more diverse sources.     

Response of Georges Bank cod to periodic and nonperiodic oil spill events

In the management of conflicting dual-resource systems such as continental shelf hydrocarbon extraction and commercial fishing operations, it is necessary to consider the possibility of repeated impact events. The potential magnitude of impacts on Georges Bank fisheries of single oil spill events has been addressed in detail elsewhere (Reed and Spaulding 1979, Reed and others 1980, Spaulding and others 1982). An oil spill-fishery impact estimation model, implemented for the Georges Bank cod fishery (Reed and others 1980), has been used to investigate the potential for nonlinear biological responses to periodic and nonperiodic repetitive spill events. Prerecruit mortality equations incorporating young-of-the-year as well as adult-juvenile interactions, perform acceptably vis-à-vis the historical catch record, but show highly variable behavior under recruitment reductions induced by periodic simulated spills. The results demonstrate the importance of selecting mathematical representations of biological and physical processes underlying population dynamics such that characteristic system behavior is adequately represented in both the time and frequency domains.     

Application of game theory for a groundwater conflict in Mexico

Exploitation of scarce water resources, particularly in areas of high demand, inevitably produces conflict among disparate stakeholders, each of whom may have their own set of priorities. In order to arrive at a socially acceptable compromise, the decision-makers should seek an optimal trade-off between conflicting objectives that reflect the priorities of the various stakeholders. In this study, game theory was applied to a multiobjective conflict problem for the Alto Rio Lerma Irrigation District, located in the state of Guanajuato in Mexico, where economic benefits from agricultural production should be balanced with associated negative environmental impacts. The short period of rainfall in this area, combined with high groundwater withdrawals from irrigation wells, has produced severe aquifer overdraft. In addition, current agricultural practices of applying high loads of fertilizers and pesticides have contaminated regions of the aquifer. The net economic benefit to this agricultural region in the short-term lies with increasing crop yields, which requires large pumping extractions for irrigation as well as high chemical loading. In the longer term, this can produce economic loss due to higher pumping costs (i.e., higher lift requirements), or even loss of the aquifer as a viable source of water. Negative environmental impacts include continued diminishment of groundwater quality, and declining groundwater levels in the basin, which can damage surface water systems that support environmental habitats. The two primary stakeholders or players, the farmers in the irrigation district and the community at large, must find an optimal balance between positive economic benefits and negative environmental impacts. In this paper, game theory was applied to find the optimal solution between the two conflicting objectives among 12 alternative groundwater extraction scenarios. Different attributes were used to quantify the benefits and costs of the two objectives, and, following generation of the Pareto frontier or trade-off curve, four conflict resolution methods were then applied.     

The Lake Tahoe Basin: A systems analysis of its characteristics and human carrying capacity

A systems analysis of the Lake Tahoe Basin indicates significant and accelerating environmental deterioration within the basin, suggests that Tahoe is poised for yet another round of urban expansion, delineates the portion of Tahoe's resources that are consumed by gaming recreation vis-à-vis outdoor recreation, and identifies the Federal government as a contributor to Tahoe's problems. In response to the need for a holistic approach to basin-wide planning and management, ecological carrying capacity concepts are explored as they may be applicable to the Basin's growth patterns, and ideas on establishing a carrying capacity for Tahoe are developed.     

Land-Use Change and Carbon Flux Between 1970s and 1990s in Central Highlands of Chiapas, Mexico

6 tons C were released to the atmosphere during the period of time covered by our study, equal to approximately 34% of the 1975 vegetation C pool. The Chiapas highlands, while comprising just 0.3% of Mexico's surface area, contributed 3% of the net national C emissions.     

Self-Organizing Maps for Integrated Environmental Assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region

A new method has been developed to perform environmental assessment at regional scale. This involves a combination of a self-organizing map (SOM) neural network and principal component analysis (PCA). The method is capable of clustering ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting relative cumulative environmental impacts of multiple factors across a large region. Using data on land-cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic region, the method was able to indicate areas that are in relatively poor environmental condition or vulnerable to future deterioration. Combining the strengths of SOM with those of PCA, the method offers an easy and useful way to perform a regional environmental assessment. Compared with traditional clustering and ranking approaches, the described method has considerable advantages, such as providing a valuable means for visualizing complex multidimensional environmental data at multiple scales and offering a single assessment or ranking needed for a regional environmental assessment while still facilitating the opportunity for more detailed analyses.     

Environmental indicators for communication of life cycle impact assessment results and their applications

Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is performed to quantitatively evaluate all environmental impacts from products, systems, processes and services. However, LCIA does not always provide valuable information for choosing among alternatives with different specifications, functionalities and lifetimes. The objectives of this study are (1) to propose environmental indicators to evaluate environmental efficiency and value qualitatively and quantitatively on the basis of analogies to financial and economic indicators, and (2) to present the application of the indicators. Incremental evaluation using a reference is employed to obtain the environmental indicators. The environmental efficiency indicators are conceptually based on the ratios of reduced environmental burdens returned to environmental burdens required: environmental return on investment, environmental payback period and environmental internal rate of return. The environmental value indicator is the sum of all reduced and required environmental burdens: i.e., environmental net present value. All the environmental indicators can be used to compare and rank the environmental efficiencies or values of alternatives. The environmental efficiency indicators can be applied to a new environmental labeling. The concept of eco-efficiency labeling is developed by combining the environmental efficiency indicators with financial indicators. A case study is performed to illustrate the necessity and importance of the environmental indicators. These environmental indicators can help easily communicate LCIA results in the field of environmental management.     

Evaluation of environmental impacts of large scale physical development in central Galilee: Role of experts and policy makers

This article reports on the content and process used to evaluate environmental impacts caused by the development of 50 new settlements in the central Galilee region in northern Israel between 1978 and 1988. Some 60 different environmental and developmental factors and their interrelationships were identified. Selected physical changes that were defined as impacts were later evaluated. The evaluation method was based on intensive use of interviews with resource scientists and decision makers as experts. The data from interviews were used as the basis for factors identification, impact screening, and their rating. Experts used three types of criteria in the latter process: intensity of impact, the potential for its mitigation and compatibility with existing natural resource conservation, and environmental quality protection policy. Researchers concluded that reliance on experts with broad local experience eliminated the need for a more structured and detailed assessment method. The case study shows that experts provided creditable and reliable findings. They substituted the need for long periods of observation and largescale and costly data gathering, analysis, and evaluation.     

Application of the Braun-Blanquet cover-abundance scale for vegetation analysis in land development studies

To document environmental impact predictions for land development, as required by United States government regulatory agencies, vegetation studies are conducted using a variety of methods. Density measurement (stem counts) is one method that is frequently used. However, density measurement of shrub and herbaceous vegetation is time-consuming and costly. As an alternative, the Braun-Blanquet cover-abundance scale was used to analyze vegetation in several ecological studies. Results from one of these studies show that the Braun-Blanquet method requires only one third to one fifth the field time required for the density method. Furthermore, cover-abundance ratings are better suited than density values to elucidate graphically species-environment relationships. For extensive surveys this method provides sufficiently accurate baseline data to allow environmental impact assessment as required by regulatory agencies.     

关于建设项目对自然保护区生态影响专题评价的思考

建立自然保护区对保护生物圈及生物多样性具有十分重要的作用。我国已建立各种类型、不同级别的自然保护区2000多处。随着我国社会经济的发展,全国各地各类开发建设项目涌现,一些开发建设项目与自然保护区的保护要求发生矛盾。使开发建设项目避免或最大程度地减少对自然保护区的不利影响,做到保护与建设的双赢,是编写开发建设项目环境影响评价文件的一个重要内容。涉及自然保护区的开发建设项目一般要求编制对自然保护区影响的专题报告,本文根据工作实践,提出编制该类专题报告的主要内容及应注意的问题。