有毒化学品泄漏事故应急疏散决策优化模型研究

采用高斯烟团模型模拟有毒化学品泄漏后的扩散区域,确定应急疏散范围;采用线性规划方法,建立应急疏散优化模型,并利用Lingo优化软件求解该模型.以液氯泄漏事故为例,研究危险区域的人员疏散,确定最佳应急疏散方案.本研究为一线指挥人员的最优疏散方案决策提供了参考.     

市级危险化学品事故应急救援预案制定思路

危险化学品事故应急救援是当前国际上极其重视的一项社会性减灾救灾工作,继去年国务院颁发的<关于特大安全事故行政责任追究的规定>中要求市(地、州)、县(市、区)人民政府制定"特大安全事故应急救援预案"后,今年国务院颁发的<危险化学品安全管理条例>中又要求县级以上地方人民政府有关部门制定"危险化学品事故应急救援预案",并报经本级人民政府批准后实施.对此镇江市及时提出要求进行布置,并着手进行了起草,已基本成稿.现将在制定过程中的几点思路介绍如下.     

化学品泄漏初期应对程序与方法研究

提出了化学品泄漏初期应对的概念,并对其内容和方法进行了阐述.化学品泄漏事故发生后,只要知道泄漏物质、泄漏量大小和风向,就可以快速确定现场管制区域、现场救援和救护人员的个体防护需求,以及人员疏散方案,从而可以在第一时间内采取有效措施,减少事故造成的人员伤亡、财产损失和环境破坏.     

基于多事故模式的有毒易燃气体道路运输泄漏事故应急疏散范围研究

为确定有毒易燃气体道路运输泄漏事故应急救援的应急疏散范围,降低人员伤亡程度,在对泄漏事故及后续次生灾害演化模式分析的基础上,提出了基于多事故模式的应急疏散范围综合确定方法,分析了多事故模式后果预测的相关理论,明确了应急疏散区域综合确定的步骤和流程。以道路运输氨气泄漏事故为例,采用MATLAB软件对不同时间下的中毒和蒸气云爆炸事故伤害范围分别进行了数值模拟研究。结果表明：相较于单一事故模式,基于多事故模式的应急疏散范围综合确定方法更为科学、合理和准确,能为有毒易燃气体道路运输泄漏事故的应急疏散提供更加精确和可靠的决策依据。     

有毒化学品事故潜在危险区的预测

对有毒化学品事故的预测是制定应急救援方案和采取防护措施的基础和关键。本文讨论了有毒化学品事故的特点及其伤害准则,并提出了事故潜在危险区的确定方法。     

有毒化学品泄漏事故应急防护行动决策探讨

当发生有毒化学品泄漏事故时,为保护公众和工人的安全和健康,需要快速地选择合适的应急防护行动.通常采用的应急防护行动有疏散、隐蔽、使用个人防护装备和服用解毒剂等.决策者必须权衡大量影响因素间的相互作用,如化学品的释放特征、事故现场的气象条件及影响范围内的人群分布等来进行应急防护行动决策.本文在分析应急防护行动决策过程关键要素的基础上,详细总结了影响应急防护行动决策的因素,介绍了应急决策常用的方法,以便在有毒化学品泄漏事故的应急过程中有效决策,最大限度地减少人员伤亡.     

危险化学品事故灾难应急预案

2006年10月1总则1.1目的进一步增强应对和防范危险化学品事故风险和事故灾难的能力,最大限度地减少事故灾难造成的人员伤亡和财产损失。1.2工作原则(1)以人为本,安全第一。危险化学品事故灾难应急救援工作要始终把保障人民群众的生命安全和身体健康放在首位,切实加强应急救援人员的安全防护,最大限度地减少危险化学品事故灾难造成的人员伤亡和危害。(2)统一领导,分级管理。国家安全生产监督管理总局(以下简称安全监管总局)在国务院及国务院安全生产委员会(以下简称国务院安委会)的统一领导下,负责指导、协调危险化学品事故灾难应急救援工作…     

美国化学品运输应急中心的功能与服务

CHEMTREC是美国化学品制造商协会建立的公共信息服务机构，成立于1971年，在化学灾害事故应急救援活动中，主要向应急处理人员、运输公司、医疗人员等提供信息、技术、医学等方面的技术支持。在发生化学泄漏事故之后，对现场人员来说，通过拨打CHEMTREC的24小时免费应急电话，就能够立即获得化学品安全专家、应急处理专业人员、     

城市危险化学品事故应急救援预案的研究

通过分析城市危险化学品的基本情况和典型事故引发的严重后果,借鉴、总结城市危险化学品应急救援演练和事故现场应急救援的实践经验,参考城市危险化学品潜在危险性评估的结果,笔者提出危险化学品事故的类别及其3种紧急情况的应对方法;阐述了制定危险化学品事故应急救援预案的目的、依据、指导思想和原则;指出城市危险化学品事故应急救援预案应包括的主要内容和构成要素,即应急救援的策划、应急响应机制、应急救援的机构与职责、任务与形式、应急响应程序、预案管理与评审改进等;提供了制定城市危险化学品事故应急救援预案的方法。     

化学事故应急救援知识讲座第一讲建立化学事故应急救援体系的必要性

化学事故应急救授预案是针对特定化学危险源而预先制定的在危险状态下的应急救援行动方案，目的是为了在发生化学事故时能以最快的速度发挥最大的效能，有序地实施救援，尽快控制事态发展，降低事故危害，减少事故损失。各地、各企业在制定化学事故应急救援预案中，针对不同的化学危险源，在救援技术上需要得到科学，权威的指导。为此，国家安全生产监督管理局安奎监管二司、国家化学品登记注册中心和本刊联合举办《化学事故应急救援知识讲》，旨在普及化学品应急救援知识，对一些常用的危险化学品的应急救援颓案提供技术上的指导。     

油浸变压器排油注氮装置在500kV变电站的设计与应用

在分析500kV变电站主变压器消防系统的现状,比较3类消防系统优缺点的基础上,详细论述了主变排油注氮装置的结构组成、工作原理、参数计算、控制系统设计以及需要注意的事项等,为下一步排油注氮装置的推广应用打下基础.     

HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

潞安矿区煤层渗透率的各向异性特征实验研究

为了研究原位煤体渗透性的各向异性特征,以山西潞安常村矿3号煤层圆柱试样为对象,利用TCQT-Ⅲ型低渗煤层气相驱替增产试验装置,对煤样进行加载,并以氮气注入压力2.0 MPa的条件下,分析垂直层理和平行层理2个方向的煤体变形和渗透率变化特征。实验结果表明:煤样在加载过程中,平行和垂直层理煤样渗透率均随着有效应力的增大而减小,平行层理方向的渗透率始终大于垂直层理方向,应力加载初期渗透率急剧下降,最后逐渐趋于平缓;径向应变的增加量与渗透率呈正相关性,且平行层理相关性大于垂直层理;沿平行层理方向的裂隙度大于沿垂直层理方向,沿垂直层理方向的应变量大于沿平行层理方向;应变增加量均随有效应力的增加而逐渐减小。研究结果可为煤层井网布置及优化提供参考。     

Nighttime pedestrian fatalities: A comprehensive examination of infrastructure,user, vehicle,and situational factors

Introduction: Pedestrian fatalities in the United States increased 45.5% between 2009 and 2017. More than 85% of those additional pedestrian fatalities occurred at night. Method: We examine Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for fatal pedestrian crashes that occurred in the dark between 2002 and 2017. Within-variable and before/after examinations of crashes in terms of infrastructure, user, vehicle, and situational characteristics are performed with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and two-sample t-tests. We model changes in crash characteristic proportions between 2002–2009 and 2010–2017 using linear regressions and test for autocorrelation with Breusch-Godfrey tests. Results: The increase in fatal nighttime pedestrian crashes is most strongly correlated with infrastructure factors: non-intersection unmarked locations (saw 80.8% of additional fatalities); 40–45 mph roads (54.6%); five-lane roads (40.7%); urban (99.7%); and arterials (81.1%). In addition, SUVs were involved in 39.7% of additional fatalities, overrepresenting their share of the fleet. Increased pedestrian alcohol and drug involvement warrant further investigation. The age of pedestrians killed increased more (18.1%) than the national average (3.2%). Conclusions: By identifying factors related to the increase in nighttime pedestrian fatalities, this work constitutes a vital first step in making our streets safer for pedestrians. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand the efficacy of different solutions, but this paper provides guidance for such future research. Engineering solutions such as road diets or traffic calming may be used to improve identified infrastructure issues by reducing vehicle speeds and road widths. Rethinking vehicle design, especially high front profiles, may improve vehicle issues. However, the problems giving rise to these pedestrian fatalities are likely a result of not only engineering issues but also interrelated social and political factors. Solutions may be correspondingly comprehensive, employing non-linear, systems-based approaches such as Safe Systems.     

Footedness and Mounting—Short Review and Two Case Studies

Footedness is a personal quality like handedness. Footedness may be associated with moving ability during mounting, dismounting, and jumping movements. Occupational accidents have occurred during movement at different working levels, during the use of access and exit systems, and during the mounting of vehicles. Aging can also affect accident risk and body laterality. For example, falling accidents on stairs are common among the elderly. One reason for accidents may be that the structure of the access system or stair system is unsuitable for individual moving patterns depending partly on body laterality. Footedness and the way the feet are used may be contradictory to the demands of the moving situation, especially during uncommon or rapid situations. This contradiction may trigger disturbance during moving. The aims of this pilot study were (a) to review the literature briefly and (b) to describe the use of the dominant and nondominant foot by farmers and the elderly when mounting a tractor and stairs, respectively. The study also gives ideas for future studies based on both (a) and (b).     

AHP与GA-SVM耦合模型在滑坡预警中的应用*

为了减少滑坡造成的损失,提高滑坡预测的准确性,通过搭建灾害模拟平台获得滑坡的实验数据,在获得多组模拟实验数据后,分析各变量的特性。首先,通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)算法,对滑坡进行危险度划分;然后,通过支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)建立模型,遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)再优化SVM参数,提出1种层次分析法与GA-SVM相耦合的模型。研究结果表明:AHP方法划分后的数据,通过GA与SVM结合建立的模型精度较好,实验预测结果与实际结果较为吻合,与单一SVM相比,精度更高,结果更好,更加适用于多变量的复杂非线性滑坡预警。     

Debunking the false dichotomy of leadership idealism and pragmatism: Critical evaluation and support of newer genre leadership theories

Leadership theories have shifted over the last few decades from a focus on managerial functions and economic leader–follower exchanges toward greater focus on the interpersonal dynamics occurring within the leadership process. Theories such as transformational, ethical, authentic, and other “newer genre” theories were created to address neglected topics such as leader vision and inspirational messages, transparency, emotional effects, morality, individualized attention, and intellectual stimulation. Critiques of these theories, however, have been raised. In this paper, we address five of those critiques and argue for the validity and practical effectiveness of the new genre theories. Further, we describe how newer genre leadership research should be viewed as a performative epistemology, entailing a process of co‐creation involving scholars and practitioners. Finally, from this view, we provide general ideas for leader development. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational Safety and Health in Finland

In Finland, occupational safety is the responsibility of the employer, while the occupational safety and health laws are enforced by the Labour Inspection Service, an organization of the state. The Labour Inspection is divided in 11 administrative districts, and it employs 360 professionals. They are mandated to carry out site visits without prearranged appointments to inspect safe work situations, working hours, construction safety, or any aspect of accident risks. The inspectors are also mandated to verify the existence of sufficient occupational health services as prescribed by the Occupational Health Services Act for all employees. The occupational health services are typically provided by enterprise-owned medical departments, by mutually owned health care centers, by private practitioners, or by municipal health care centers. The latter are required by law to provide all services as prescribed by the legislation to anyone who comes to the facility. This situation is prevalent in the countryside, where there are very few private caregiving centers. Declaring occupational accidents and disease cases is mandatory, and the Inspection districts examine all accidents to establish causes and consequences, and to initiate prosecution in case of criminal negligence. Labour Inspection Districts are also notified of the new occupational disease cases as they are declared to insurance companies. Insurance for occupational disease, accidents, and death is an obligation of the employer, although they can choose the insurance company. The medical confidentiality between the workers and their occupational health care providers is very strict. Official statistics are maintained by the state Statistics Finland organization, and they may be used, for example, for research purposes by scientific institutes like the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Construction industry accounts for 25% of all fatal accidents (120 cases per 1 million working hours), followed by mechanical, wood, metal, machinery, and pulp and paper industry (10% each of fatal accidents) with rates ranging from 100–160 cases per 1 million working hours. There are some 5,000 occupational disease cases per year (rate 22/10,000 employed). The major disease categories include repetitive strain injuries (1,300 cases), respiratory allergies (600 cases), occupational skin diseases (1,000 cases), and 900 cases of noise-caused hearing loss. In 1998, 589 cases of asbestos-related diseases were reported.     

森林地表火蔓延模拟方法及其计算机实现

进行了森林火蔓延的研究,对传统的经验公式和模型进行改进,明显发现改进的模型有更好的结果,用计算机巧妙准确地实现了模拟模型,在风力不是特别大,地形变化不是特别剧烈时,该模型有较高精度;并结合火蔓延的主要因素（气象因子、气候、地形等）,进行系统分析,写出算地,编制实现地表火蔓延的预测预报计算机系统软件。这对于有效的组织扑救、减少火灾损失、计算森林火灾的损失评估有重要意义。     

公路隧道火灾逃生疏散研究

以苍岭隧道为背景,首先采用经验计算理论和计算软件building EXODUS相结合的方式,从被困人员的安全疏散时间、高温烟气的影响、隧道横通道的利用率以及人员的疏散行为特性进行了研究。结果表明:中小规模火灾情况下的安全疏散时间控制在8 min之内,高温烟气影响不大,但横通道的利用率不平均,且人员疏散路线相对集中。然后对存在的逃生疏散问题提出针对性建议以及其他相关建议,旨在为更大程度降低事故的严重性和经济财产损失。