Sensitivity of the DERMA long-range Gaussian dispersion model to meteorological input and diffusion parameters

The Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA) is described and applied to the first ETEX experiment. By using analysed low-resolution numerical weather-prediction data from the global model of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) as well as higher-resolution data from two versions of the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM), which are operational at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), the sensitivity of DERMA to the resolution of meteorological data is analysed by comparing DERMA results with concentration measurements. Furthermore, the sensitivity to boundary-layer height and diffusion parameters is studied. These parameters include the critical bulk Richardson number, which is used to estimate the atmospheric boundary-layer height, the horizontal eddy diffusivity and the Lagrangian turbulence time scale. The parameters, which provide the best performance of DERMA, are 0.25 for the critical bulk Richardson number, 6×10³ m² s^-1 for the horizontal eddy diffusivity, and 3 h for the Lagrangian time scale. DERMA is much more sensitive to boundary-layer parameters when using high-resolution DMI-HIRLAM data than when using data of lower resolution from the ECMWF. Finally, the bulk Richardson number method of boundary-layer height calculation applied to DMI-HIRLAM data is verified directly against routine radiosondes released under the tracer gas plume. The boundary-layer height estimates based on analysed NWP model data agree well with observations, and the agreement deteriorates as a function of forecast length.     

Simulation of large particle transport near the surface under stable conditions: comparison with the Hanford tracer experiments

A plume model is presented describing the downwind transport of large particles (1–100 μm) under stable conditions. The model includes both vertical variations in wind speed and turbulence intensity as well as an algorithm for particle deposition at the surface. Model predictions compare favorably with the Hanford single and dual tracer experiments of crosswind integrated concentration (for particles: relative bias=−0.02 and 0.16, normalized mean square error=0.61 and 0.14, for the single and dual tracer experiments, respectively), whereas the US EPA's fugitive dust model consistently overestimates the observed concentrations at downwind distances beyond several hundred meters (for particles: relative bias=0.31 and 2.26, mean square error=0.42 and 1.71, respectively). For either plume model, the measured ratio of particle to gas concentration is consistently overestimated when using the deposition velocity algorithm of Sehmel and Hodgson (1978. DOE Report PNL-SA-6721, Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Richland, WA). In contrast, these same ratios are predicted with relatively little bias when using the algorithm of Kim et al. (2000. Atmospheric Environment 34 (15), 2387–2397).     

Development and evaluation of the PRIME plume rise and building downwash model

A new Gaussian dispersion model, the Plume Rise Model Enhancements (PRIME), has been developed for plume rise and building downwash. PRIME considers the position of the stack relative to the building, streamline deflection near the building, and vertical wind speed shear and velocity deficit effects on plume rise. Within the wake created by a sharp-edged, rectangular building, PRIME explicitly calculates fields of turbulence intensity, wind speed, and streamline slope, which gradually decay to ambient values downwind of the building. The plume trajectory within these modified fields is estimated using a numerical plume rise model. A probability density function and an eddy diffusivity scheme are used for dispersion in the wake. A cavity module calculates the fraction of plume mass captured by and recirculated within the near wake. The captured plume is re-emitted to the far wake as a volume source and added to the uncaptured primary plume contribution to obtain the far wake concentrations. The modeling procedures currently recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), using SCREEN and the Industrial Source Complex model (ISC), do not include these features. PRIME also avoids the discontinuities resulting from the different downwash modules within the current models and the reported overpredictions during light-wind speed, stable conditions. PRIME is intended for use in regulatory models. It was evaluated using data from a power plant measurement program, a tracer field study for a combustion turbine, and several wind-tunnel studies. PRIME performed as well as or better than ISC/SCREEN for nearly all of the comparisons.     

Development and Evaluation of the PRIME Plume Rise and Building Downwash Model

ABSTRACT

A new Gaussian dispersion model, the Plume Rise Model Enhancements (PRIME), has been developed for plume rise and building downwash. PRIME considers the position of the stack relative to the building, streamline deflection near the building, and vertical wind speed shear and velocity deficit effects on plume rise. Within the wake created by a sharp-edged, rectangular building, PRIME explicitly calculates fields of turbulence intensity, wind speed, and streamline slope, which gradually decay to ambient values downwind of the building. The plume trajectory within these modified fields is estimated using a numerical plume rise model. A probability density function and an eddy diffusivity scheme are used for dispersion in the wake. A cavity module calculates the fraction of plume mass captured by and recirculated within the near wake. The captured plume is re-emitted to the far wake as a volume source and added to the uncaptured primary plume contribution to obtain the far wake concentrations.

The modeling procedures currently recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), using SCREEN and the Industrial Source Complex model (ISC), do not include these features. PRIME also avoids the discontinuities resulting from the different downwash modules within the current models and the reported overpredictions during light-wind speed, stable conditions. PRIME is intended for use in regulatory models. It was evaluated using data from a power plant measurement program, a tracer field study for a combustion turbine, and several wind-tunnel studies. PRIME performed as well as or better than ISC/SCREEN for nearly all of the comparisons.     

Field demonstration and evaluation of the Passive Flux Meter on a CAH groundwater plume

This study comprises the first application of the Passive Flux Meter (PFM) for the measurement of chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbon (CAH) mass fluxes and Darcy water fluxes in groundwater at a European field site. The PFM was originally developed and applied to measurements near source zones. The focus of the PFM is extended from near source to plume zones. For this purpose, 48 PFMs of 1.4 m length were constructed and installed in eight different monitoring wells in the source and plume zone of a CAH-contaminated field site located in France. The PFMs were retrieved, sampled, and analyzed after 3 to 11 weeks of exposure time, depending on the expected contaminant flux. PFM evaluation criteria include analytical, technical, and practical aspects as well as conditions and applicability. PFM flux data were compared with so-called traditional soil and groundwater concentration data obtained using active sampling methods. The PFMs deliver reasonable results for source as well as plume zones. The limiting factor in the PFM applicability is the exposure time together with the groundwater flux. Measured groundwater velocities at the field site range from 2 to 41 cm/day. Measured contaminant flux data raise up to 13 g/m²/day for perchloroethylene in the plume zone. Calculated PFM flux averaged concentration data and traditional concentration data were of similar magnitude for most wells. However, both datasets need to be compared with reservation because of the different sampling nature and time. Two important issues are the PFM tracer loss during installation/extraction and the deviation of the groundwater flow field when passing the monitoring well and PFM. The demonstration of the PFM at a CAH-contaminated field site in Europe confirmed the efficiency of the flux measurement technique for source as well as plume zones. The PFM can be applied without concerns in monitoring wells with European standards. The acquired flux data are of great value for the purpose of site characterization and mass discharge modeling, and can be used in combination with traditional soil and groundwater sampling methods.     

Short-range atmospheric dispersion over a heterogeneous surface—I. Lateral dispersion

Results are presented from a series of diffusion trials in which a tracer gas, sulphur hexafluoride, was released from an elevated point source over the heterogeneous surface of the Canadian Precambrian Shield. The experimental procedures used in the sampling and analysis of the tracer gas, and in the collection of supporting meteorological information, are described briefly. Physical and meteorological data are presented for 39 successful trials.Under steady-state meteorological conditions, the crosswind concentration distributions were approximately normal in shape. Lateral Gaussian dispersion parameters were extracted from the profiles and compared statistically with the predictions of a number of standard schemes. Best agreement was found with Pasquill's (1976) method, which uses observed wind direction fluctuations to deduce the lateral spread of the plume. The success of Pasquill's method for the rough, heterogeneous surface of the Shield suggests that it may be quite generally applicable. The spread of the plume was found to scale best with meteorological measurements made near the release height, where the flow is characteristic of the heterogeneous surface as a whole. When scaled using Pasquill's procedure, lateral spread is independent of the type of vegetative cover beneath the plume. Similarly, normalized dispersion over a snow-covered surface progresses at the same rate as over a snow-free surface     

The field campaigns of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX): overview and results

As part of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) two successful atmospheric experiments were carried out in October and November, 1994. Perfluorocarbon (PFC) tracers were released into the atmosphere in Monterfil, Brittany, and air samples were taken at 168 stations in 17 European countries for 72 h after the release. Upper air tracer measurements were made from three aircraft. During the first experiment a westerly air flow transported the tracer plume north-eastwards across Europe. During the second release the flow was eastwards. The results from the ground sampling network allowed the determination of the cloud evolution as far as Sweden, Poland and Bulgaria. This demonstrated that the PFT technique can be successfully applied in long-range tracer experiments up to 2000 km. Typical background concentrations of the tracer used are around 5–7 fl ?^-1 in ambient air. Concentrations in the plume ranged from 10 to above 200 fl/?^-1. The tracer release characteristics, the tracer concentrations at the ground and in upper air, the routine and additional meteorological observations at the ground level and in upper air, trajectories derived from constant-level balloons and the meteorological input fields for long-range transport models are assembled in the ETEX database. The ETEX database is accessible via the Internet. Here, an overview is given of the design of the experiment, the methods used and the data obtained.     

Panel Discussion

A stack design procedure is developed which accounts for the effect of plume interception by downwind buildings, and which provides information on effluent concentrations in a form useful to planning authorities. The information presented in this paper is directed to engineers carrying out stack designs for locations where downwind buildings are of comparable height to the stack. A wind tunnel investigation using tracer gas techniques indicates that, for a plume at building height, downwash on the upwind face of a building causes the high concentrations observed near the roof to be transported to ground level. The effect of a plume on elevated points is determined by the concept of the minimum descent height of the maximum allowable ambient concentration isopleth. This minimum descent height, computed using Gaussian plume dispersion theory, defines a building height below which pollutant concentrations will always lie within safe limits. A case study is presented for the use of the design procedure for a small thermal power plant in an urban area.     

Modeling the ETEX plume dispersion with the Canadian emergency response model

The CANadian Emergency Response Model (CANERM) was used to simulate the dispersion resulting from the ETEX release of 23 October 1994. Dispersion simulations were done using three different data sets as meteorological input: the ECMWF/ETEX Data Set, data from the CMC Global Data Assimilation System, and results from a diagnostic execution of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. Comparisons of the dispersion simulations are made with observed surface concentration data provided by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. It is found that CANERM can simulate fairly well the main features of the cloud dispersion. The spatial and temporal evolution of the simulated cloud appear quite plausible, but a tendency to overestimate surface concentrations is apparent. The simulations provide a credible explanation for the two peaks observed at station NL01; the first peak appears to be associated with the passage of the head portion of the plume, while the second seems to be associated with the tail part. Verification scores indicate that the simulations using the ECMWF/ETEX data set and CMC global data are of equivalent quality. However, the simulations obtained using the GEM diagnostic fields are significantly better.     

A study of the movement of radioactive material released during the Windscale fire in October 1957 using ERA40 data

In October 1957 a fire in Pile Number 1, a nuclear reactor at the Windscale Works, Sellafield, resulted in the accidental release of radionuclides to the atmosphere. Previous studies have described the atmospheric transport of the resultant radioactive plume from its release on the Cumbrian coast of Northwest England to its passage across mainland Europe. Those past studies have suffered from uncertainties concerning the quantity and timing of emissions and meteorological conditions. Crabtree [1959. The travel and diffusion of the radioactive material emitted during the Windscale accident. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 85, 362] initially produced estimates of plume transport based on weather observations and radiosonde profiles. Later, ApSimon et al. [1985. Long-range atmospheric dispersion of radioisotopes—I. The MESOS model. Atmospheric Environment 19(1), 99–111] based estimates of plume transport on trajectories calculated from weather charts. More recently, Nelson et al. [2006. A study of the movement of radioactive material discharged during the Windscale fire in October 1957. Atmospheric Environment, 40, 58–75] used a full three-dimensional dispersion model using digitised weather data from similar charts.This study aims to further reduce uncertainty in the plume's behaviour by using the latest available Numerical Weather Prediction Model reanalysis of meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40) coupled with current best estimates of the radioactive emissions profile. The results presented here generally support the findings of previous studies though an improvement in model comparisons against observational measurements has been found. The opportunity was also taken to extend the time horizon, and hence geographical coverage, of the modelled plume. It is considered that this paper presents the best estimate to date of the plume's behaviour.     

Operational ozone forecasts for the region of Copenhagen by the Danish Meteorological Institute

The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) has developed an operational forecasting system for ozone concentrations in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer; this system is called the Danish Atmospheric Chemistry FOrecasting System (DACFOS). At specific sites where real-time ozone concentration measurements are available, a statistical after-treatment of DACFOS’ results adjusts the next 48 h ozone forecasts. This post-processing of DACFOS’ forecasts is based on an adaptive linear regression model using an optimal state estimator algorithm. The regression analysis uses different linear combinations of meteorological parameters (such as temperature, wind speed, surface heat flux and atmospheric boundary layer height) supplied by the Numerical Weather Prediction model DMI-HIRLAM. Several regressions have been tested for six monitoring stations in Denmark and in England, and four of the linear combinations have been selected to be employed in an automatic forecasting system. A statistical study comparing observations and forecasts shows that this system yields higher correlation coefficients as well as smaller biases and RMSE values than DACFOS; the present post-processing thus improves DACFOS’ forecasts. This system has been operational since June 1998 at the DMI's monitoring station in the north of Copenhagen, for which a new ozone forecast is presented every 6 h on the DMI's internet public homepage.     

Plume behaviors observed using lidar and SF6 tracer at a flat and hilly site

Two field experiments, one at Kincaid, IL, in flat terrain, the other at Bull Run, TN, in rolling terrain, were conducted under the auspices of the Electric Power Research Institute's (EPRI) Plume Model Validation and Development program. Simultaneous observations were made of ground-level SF₆ concentrations; plume cross-sections using light detection and ranging (lidar); turbulence; and routine meteorology at the surface and aloft. Due to terrain influences, surface wind-speeds at the Bull Run site were significantly lower than those at the Kincaid site, whereas thermal winds at Kincaid were generally larger than at Bull Run. At both sites, a reduction in turbulent intensity and an increase in atmospheric stability with height correlate with a substantial decrease in the rate of vertical plume dispersion. SF₆ ground-level concentration (GLC) patterns over distances of 1–50 km from the source were categorized by shape. The GLC patterns at Bull Run were frequently ‘blobby’, when significant GLCs occurred over an azimuth angle exceeding 90°, whereas patterns at Kincaid were generally coherent and nearly elliptical. Plume behavior was examined for 154 h during which both GLCs of SF₆ tracer and lidar cross-sections of the plume were of good quality. Results show that plume looping was rare at Kincaid, but occurred substantially more often at Bull Run (3%: 14%), with the reverse true for meandering (11%: 14%). Inversions that trapped plume material occurred much more often at Kincaid that at Bull Run (11%: <1%). Correlation of cross-wind concentration distributions of the plume aloft with those cross-wind SF₆ concentrations distributions at the ground were poor at both sites.     

Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations during ETEX 2

In this paper the meteorological processes responsible for transporting tracer during the second ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment) release are determined using the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). The UM predicted distribution of tracer is also compared with observations from the ETEX campaign. The dominant meteorological process is a warm conveyor belt which transports large amounts of tracer away from the surface up to a height of 4 km over a 36 h period. Convection is also an important process, transporting tracer to heights of up to 8 km. Potential sources of error when using an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential sources of error include model dynamics, model resolution and model physics. In the UM a semi-Lagrangian monotonic advection scheme is used with cubic polynomial interpolation. This can predict unrealistic negative values of tracer which are subsequently set to zero, and hence results in an overprediction of tracer concentrations. In order to conserve mass in the UM tracer simulations it was necessary to include a flux corrected transport method. Model resolution can also affect the accuracy of predicted tracer distributions. Low resolution simulations (50 km grid length) were unable to resolve a change in wind direction observed during ETEX 2, this led to an error in the transport direction and hence an error in tracer distribution. High resolution simulations (12 km grid length) captured the change in wind direction and hence produced a tracer distribution that compared better with the observations. The representation of convective mixing was found to have a large effect on the vertical transport of tracer. Turning off the convective mixing parameterisation in the UM significantly reduced the vertical transport of tracer. Finally, air quality forecasts were found to be sensitive to the timing of synoptic scale features. Errors in the position of the cold front relative to the tracer release location of only 1 h resulted in changes in the predicted tracer concentrations that were of the same order of magnitude as the absolute tracer concentrations.     

Fluorescent dye imaging of the volume sampled by single well forced-gradient tracer tests evaluated in a laboratory-scale aquifer physical model

This study presents a new method to visualise forced-gradient tracer tests in 2-D using a laboratory-scale aquifer physical model. Experiments were designed to investigate the volume of aquifer sampled in vertical dipole flow tracer tests (DFTT) and push-pull tests (PPT), using a miniature monitoring well and straddle packer arrangement equipped with solute injection and recovery chambers. These tests have previously been used to estimate bulk aquifer hydraulic and transport properties for the evaluation of natural attenuation and other remediation approaches. Experiments were performed in a silica glass bead-filled box, using a fluorescent tracer (fluorescein) to deduce conservative solute transport paths. Digital images of fluorescein transport were captured under ultraviolet light and processed to analyse tracer plume geometry and obtain point-concentration breakthrough histories. Inorganic anion mixtures were also used to obtain conventional tracer breakthrough histories. Concentration data from the conservative tracer breakthrough curves was compared with the digital images and a well characterised numerical model. The results show that the peak tracer breakthrough response in dipole flow tracer tests samples a zone of aquifer close to the well screen, while the sampling volume of push-pull tests is limited by the length of the straddle packers used. The effective sampling volume of these single well forced-gradient tests in isotropic conditions can be estimated with simple equations. The experimental approach offers the opportunity to evaluate under controlled conditions the theoretical basis, design and performance of DFTTs and PPTs in porous media in relation to measured flow and transport properties.     

Comparison of concentration/flux ratios measured with a backscatter Lidar and with a chemical tracer

A series of backscatter Lidar measurements were made around a bio-waste power station at Eye in Suffolk over a period of 10 days in May 1999. These measurements were supplemented with bag samples of SF₆ tracer, analysed on site using gas chromatography with an electron capture detector. Despite problems with contamination, a detection limit of 20 ppt was eventually achieved and this permitted useful plume measurements from a release rate of 1–2 l min⁻¹. Concentration/flux ratios were estimated from the Lidar measurements using an integral technique. Of the Lidar runs obtained, 24 were coincident with a tracer release. After allowing for the background of both aerosol and tracer, it was apparent that the independent calibrations of concentration/flux ratio from Lidar or tracer agreed with each other to within 20–60%. This permits the Lidar scans to be used to estimate peak near-ground concentrations, though because of various technical difficulties (poor alignment, background sources of aerosol, or an inconvenient wind direction) this cannot always be achieved. Besides giving confidence in the Lidar calibration, the tracer measurements were valuable in permitting aerosol from the stack to be distinguished from aerosol from fugitive sources. Meteorological parameters were logged simultaneously with the dispersion measurements. These parameters included conventional means of wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity and insolation, and also micrometeorological measurements of turbulence and of turbulent fluxes. The Lidar was used to estimate wind speed and direction at plume height and the boundary layer depth and cloud-base where possible. Source emission characteristics were also logged.     

3-D numerical evaluation of density effects on tracer tests

In this paper we present numerical simulations carried out to assess the importance of density-dependent flow on tracer plume development. The scenario considered in the study is characterized by a short-term tracer injection phase into a fully penetrating well and a natural hydraulic gradient. The scenario is thought to be typical for tracer tests conducted in the field. Using a reference case as a starting point, different model parameters were changed in order to determine their importance to density effects. The study is based on a three-dimensional model domain. Results were interpreted using concentration contours and a first moment analysis. Tracer injections of 0.036 kg per meter of saturated aquifer thickness do not cause significant density effects assuming hydraulic gradients of at least 0.1%. Higher tracer input masses, as used for geoelectrical investigations, may lead to buoyancy-induced flow in the early phase of a tracer test which in turn impacts further plume development. This also holds true for shallow aquifers. Results of simulations with different tracer injection rates and durations imply that the tracer input scenario has a negligible effect on density flow. Employing model cases with different realizations of a log conductivity random field, it could be shown that small variations of hydraulic conductivity in the vicinity of the tracer injection well have a major control on the local tracer distribution but do not mask effects of buoyancy-induced flow.     

3-D numerical evaluation of density effects on tracer tests

In this paper we present numerical simulations carried out to assess the importance of density-dependent flow on tracer plume development. The scenario considered in the study is characterized by a short-term tracer injection phase into a fully penetrating well and a natural hydraulic gradient. The scenario is thought to be typical for tracer tests conducted in the field. Using a reference case as a starting point, different model parameters were changed in order to determine their importance to density effects. The study is based on a three-dimensional model domain. Results were interpreted using concentration contours and a first moment analysis. Tracer injections of 0.036 kg per meter of saturated aquifer thickness do not cause significant density effects assuming hydraulic gradients of at least 0.1%. Higher tracer input masses, as used for geoelectrical investigations, may lead to buoyancy-induced flow in the early phase of a tracer test which in turn impacts further plume development. This also holds true for shallow aquifers. Results of simulations with different tracer injection rates and durations imply that the tracer input scenario has a negligible effect on density flow. Employing model cases with different realizations of a log conductivity random field, it could be shown that small variations of hydraulic conductivity in the vicinity of the tracer injection well have a major control on the local tracer distribution but do not mask effects of buoyancy-induced flow.     

Simulating the fate and transport of TCE from groundwater to indoor air

This work provides an exploratory analysis on the relative importance of various factors controlling the fate and transport of volatile organic contaminants (in this case, TCE) from a DNAPL source zone located below the water table and into the indoor air. The analysis is conducted using the multi-phase compositional model CompFlow Bio, with the base scenario problem geometry reminiscent of a field experiment conducted by Rivett [Rivett, M.O., (1995), Soil–gas signatures from volatile chlorinated solvents: Borden field experiments. Groundwater, 33(1), 84–98.] at the Borden aquifer where groundwater was observed to transport a contaminant plume a substantial distance without vertical mass transport of the contaminant across the capillary fringe and into the vadose zone. Results for the base scenario model indicate that the structure of the permeability field was largely responsible for deflecting the groundwater plume upward towards the capillary fringe, permitting aqueous phase diffusion to transport the TCE into the vadose zone. Alternative permeability realizations, generated as part of a Monte Carlo simulation process, at times deflected the groundwater plume downwards causing the extended thickness of the saturated zone to insulate the vadose zone from exposure to the TCE by upward diffusive transport. Comparison of attenuation coefficients calculated using the CompFlow Bio and Johnson and Ettinger [Johnson, P.C. and Ettinger, R.A., (1991), Heuristic model for predicting the intrusion rate of contaminant vapors into buildings. Environmental Science and Technology, 25, 1445–1452.] heuristic model exhibited fortuitous agreement for the base scenario problem geometry, with this agreement diverging for the alternative permeability realizations as well as when parameters such as the foundation slab fracture aperture, the indoor air pressure drop, the capillary fringe thickness, and the infiltration rate were varied over typical ranges.