CRITIQUE—Consumer product safety: Risk assessment of exposure to asbestos emissions from hand-held hair dryers

The paper by Dr. William Hallenbeck of the University of Illinois on pp. 23–32 of this issue ofEnvironmental Management contains an estimate of the risk of respiratory cancer resulting from exposure to asbestos fibers emitted from asbestos-containing hairdryers. The study, which is described as a worst case analysis, concludes that the use of these hairdryers would result in a maximum of 0.15 deaths from respiratory cancer per year in the United States, based on a median case estimate of asbestos fiber emission from hair-dryers. This estimate of risk was developed using data from one epidemiologic study.In this critique, we suggest that the use of other epidemiologic studies and the inclusion of other minor, reasonable changes to the basic assumptions made by Hallenbeck could significantly change the estimate in the direction of greater risk. Indeed, the use of other epidemiologic studies in the risk estimate results in an increase in the predicted risk of up to 3 orders of magnitude. Inclusion of changes both in the epidemiologic study used and in certain model assumptions results in an increased risk prediction of over 4 orders of magnitude in the extreme.Since there is no definitive basis on which to include or exclude certain assumptions or relevant studies, the risk estimate at best must be represented as a range of values. Such a range demonstrates the inherent uncertainties associated with estimating the risk to humans from known carcinogens. The size of the range developed in this analysis may actually be underestimated since no attempt has been made to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the choice of the dose-response model.The material found within this paper contains the views of the authors who are employees of the Consumer Product Safety Commission and does not necessarily reflect official opinions or policies of the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission.This paper was prepared in the course of the official duties of the authors as employees of the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. It is in the public domain and may be freely copied and reproduced.     

Perceptions of Risk Associated with Use of Farm Chemicals: Implications for Conservation Initiatives

/ Data were collected from 245 farmers within the Darby Creek hydrologic unit in central Ohio to assess perceptions of risk associated with use of farm chemicals. Farmers were asked to evaluate the level of risk associated with use of agricultural chemicals for water quality, food safety, food quality, health of applicator, health of farm animals, wildlife, beneficial plants, beneficial insects, and human health. Study findings revealed that respondents perceived use of farm chemicals posed little or no threat to any of the assessed items. A composite index was formulated from the responses to the nine items and was titled Perceived Risk. Variance in the Perceived Risk index was regressed against social learning variables. The findings revealed that approximately 32% of the variance was explained by the predictive variables included in the model. It was concluded that the theoretical perspective was somewhat useful for understanding perceptions held about agricultural chemical use at the farm level. The findings are discussed in the context of future conservation and educational-information programs within the study region.KEY WORDS: Risk perception; Risk assessment; Groundwater; Pesticide contamination; Food safety; Environmental quality     

Risk assessment for atmospheric environmental management: a case study in the Hunter Region of New South Wales,Australia

The theoretical framework of a risk assessment scheme is applied to air quality assessment in a developing region in Australia, the Hunter Valley in the state of New South Wales. It is found that the application of such a scheme high-lights a number of inadequacies in the air quality management. New modeling methodologies are found to be necessary to assess some air quality impacts, as existing knowledge is inadequate. The importance of extensive data bases is underlined as is the need for social surveys to supplement air pollution monitoring when gauging aesthetic effects of air pollutants.A visiting fellow on leave from the School of Australian Environmental Studies, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.     

Cadmium: Simulation of environmental control strategies to reduce exposure

The effects of selected environmental control strategies on human dietary and respiratory exposure to environmental cadmium (Cd) have been simulated. For each control strategy, mean Cd dietary and respiratory exposures are presented for a twenty-year simulation period.Human exposures related to cadmium are associated with both process waste disposal and product disposal. Dietary exposure is by far the dominant mechanism for Cd intake. Dietary exposure related to aqueous discharges is primarily a result of municipal sludge landspreading, whereas that associated with emissions to the atmosphere derives mainly from the deposition on cropland of airborne particulates from product incineration. Only relatively small dietary exposure reductions are possible through restrictions on anysingle Cd use. Combinations of waste management and environmental control measures promise greater reductions in dietary and respiratory exposure than those achievable through use restrictions.Work supported by Office of Toxic Substances U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.     

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: An Approach for Characterizing Tropospheric Ozone Risk to Forests

/ The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States is dependent on the variation in ozone exposure across the distribution of the forests in question and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial nature, and consequently an approach to characterization of ozone risk is presented that places ozone exposure-response functions for species as seedlings and model-simulated tree and stand responses in a spatial context using a geographical information systems (GIS). The GIS is used to aggregate factors considered important in a risk characterization, including: (1) estimated ozone exposures over forested regions, (2) measures of ozone effects on species' and stand growth, and (3) spatially distributed environmental, genetic, and exposure influences on species' response to ozone. The GIS-based risk characterization provides an estimation of the extent and magnitude of the potential ozone impact on forests. A preliminary risk characterization demonstrating this approach considered only the eastern United States and only the limited empirical data quantifying the effect of ozone exposures on forest tree species as seedlings. The area-weighted response of the annual seedling biomass loss formed the basis for a sensitivity ranking: sensitive-aspen and black cherry (14%-33% biomass loss over 50% of their distribution); moderately sensitive-tulip popular, loblolly pine, eastern white pine, and sugar maple (5%-13% biomass loss); insensitive-Virginia pine and red maple (0%-1% loss). In the future, the GIS-based risk characterization will include process-based model simulations of the three- to 5-year growth response of individual species as large trees with relevant environmental interactions and model simulated response of mixed stands. The interactive nature of GIS provides a tool to explore consequences of the range of climate conditions across a species' distribution, forest management practices, changing ozone precursors, regulatory control strategies, and other factors influencing the spatial distribution of ozone over time as more information becomes available.KEY WORDS: Ecological risk assessment; GIS; Ozone; Risk characterization; Forests; Trees     

Towards an Integrated Approach to Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Using GIS: With Reference to Bushfires

This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.     

Environmental Justice,Local Knowledge,and Risk: The Discourse of a Community-Based Cumulative Exposure Assessment

While risk assessment continues to drive most environmental management decision-making, its methods and assumptions have been criticized for, among other things, perpetuating environmental injustice. The justice challenges to risk assessment claim that the process ignores the unique and multiple hazards facing low-income and people of color communities and simultaneously excludes the local, non-expert knowledge which could help capture these unique hazards from the assessment discourse. This paper highlights some of these challenges to conventional risk assessment and suggests that traditional models of risk characterization will continue to ignore the environmental justice challenges until cumulative hazards and local knowledge are meaningfully brought into the assessment process. We ask whether a shift from risk to exposure assessment might enable environmental managers to respond to the environmental justice critiques. We review the US EPA's first community-based Cumulative Exposure Project, piloted in Brooklyn, NY, and highlight to what extent this process addressed the risk assessment critiques raised by environmental justice advocates. We suggest that a shift from risk to exposure assessment can provide an opportunity for local knowledge to both improve the technical assessment and its democratic nature and may ultimately allow environmental managers to better address environmental justice concerns in decision-making.     

Integrating Bioassessment and Ecological Risk Assessment: An Approach to Developing Numerical Water-Quality Criteria

Bioassessment is used worldwide to monitor aquatic health but is infrequently used with risk-assessment objectives, such as supporting the development of defensible, numerical water-quality criteria. To this end, we present a generalized approach for detecting potential ecological thresholds using assemblage-level attributes and a multimetric index (Index of Biological Integrity—IBI) as endpoints in response to numerical changes in water quality. To illustrate the approach, we used existing macroinvertebrate and surface-water total phosphorus (TP) datasets from an observed P gradient and a P-dosing experiment in wetlands of the south Florida coastal plain nutrient ecoregion. Ten assemblage attributes were identified as potential metrics using the observational data, and five were validated in the experiment. These five core metrics were subjected individually and as an aggregated Nutrient–IBI to nonparametric changepoint analysis (nCPA) to estimate cumulative probabilities of a threshold response to TP. Threshold responses were evident for all metrics and the IBI, and were repeatable through time. Results from the observed gradient indicated that a threshold was 50% probable between 12.6 and 19.4 g/L TP for individual metrics and 14.8 g/L TP for the IBI. Results from the P-dosing experiment revealed 50% probability of a response between 11.2 and 13.0 g/L TP for the metrics and 12.3 g/L TP for the IBI. Uncertainty analysis indicated a low (typically 5%) probability that an IBI threshold occurred at 10 g/L TP, while there was 95% certainty that the threshold was 17 g/L TP. The weight-of-evidence produced from these analyses implies that a TP concentration > 12–15 g/L is likely to cause degradation of macroinvertebrate assemblage structure and function, a reflection of biological integrity, in the study area. This finding may assist in the development of a numerical water-quality criterion for TP in this ecoregion, and illustrates the utility of bioassessment to environmental decision-making.     

Computerized Map of Risk to Manage Wildlife Species in Urban Areas

For the last 20 years, human–wildlife conflicts have been rapidly increasing in towns. Although people want “greener” cities, the expansion of disliked species causes problems that are difficult to manage and to reduce. The complexity of the numerous factors involved in these human–wildlife relations needs the development of a comprehensive tool for urban planners. Today, with the development of computers and geographical information systems, it is easier to analyze and combine different spatial data as methods used for the management of risks in studies of natural hazards. Here we present a method for assessing and mapping the risk in cases of human–wildlife conflict. An application to starling management in a town in western France will show the efficiency of our methods to combine information given by a network of experts and to highlight higher risk sites. The map of risk provides a spatial result useful for comprehension, communication between people and agencies, and public education.     

A framework for assessing the impact of land use policy on community exposure to air toxics

Our research focuses on the linkage between land use planning policy and the spatial pattern of exposure to air toxics emissions. Our objective is to develop a modeling framework for assessment of the community health risk implications of land use policy. The modeling framework is not intended to be a regulatory tool for small-scale land use decisions, but a long-range planning tool to assess the community health risk implications of alternative land use scenarios at a regional or subregional scale. This paper describes the development and application of an air toxic source model for generating aggregate emission factors for industrial and commercial zoning districts as a function of permitted uses. To address the uncertainty of estimating air toxics emission rates for planned general land use or zoning districts, the source model uses an emissions probability mass function that weights each incremental permitted land use activity by the likelihood of occurrence. We thus reduce the uncertainty involved in planning for development with no prior knowledge of the specific industries that may locate within the land use district. These air toxics emission factors can then be used to estimate pollutant atmospheric mass flux from land use zoning districts, which can then be input to air dispersion and human health risk assessment models to simulate the spatial pattern of air toxics exposure risk. The model database was constructed using the California Air Toxics Inventory, 1997 US Economic Census, and land assessment records from several California counties. The database contains information on more than 200 air toxics at the 2-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. We present a case study to illustrate application of the model. LUAIRTOX, the interactive spreadsheet model that applies our methodology to the California data, is available at http://www2.bren.ucsb.edu/~mwillis/LUAIRTOX.htm.     

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: Risk Assessment in the Face of Controversy: Tree Clearing and Salinization in North Queensland

/ Several lines of evidence were followed to assess the risk of salinization after tree clearing in the upper Burdekin River basin in north Queensland. Conceptual, biophysical process-based approaches (pedological interpretation, event tree analysis, one-dimensional water balance modeling, and Boolean spatial analysis) were compared to empirical methods and field evidence. The convergence of all lines of conceptual reasoning to the conclusion that there exists a risk of salinization in north Queensland, consistent with field evidence of naturally occurring waterlogging and salinity, strengthens the argument against tree clearing.     

Meeting Consumer Concerns for Food Safety in South Korea: The Importance of Food Safety and Ethics in a Globalizing Market

As the issue of food safety became one of the important public agenda, consumer concern for food safety became the general public concern. The Korea U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) completion allowing import of U.S. beef to Korea has turned into a massive public uproar and a series of demonstrations, revealing widespread concerns on the part of Korean producers and consumers about government food safety regulations and mishandling of the beef trade requirement. The mishandling of public concerns for BSE on U.S. beef import by the administrators led to a breakdown of the relationship between the public and the government and a loss of consumer confidence in Korea’s food safety system. The KORUS FTA beef crisis raised the issues of government accountability and the importance of understanding moral and ethical aspects of food safety management that pose perceived risk for BSE by the Korean citizen. The aim of this paper is to address the importance of understanding consumer concerns, food ethics and of appropriate risk communication in dealing with politically and publically sensitive food safety issues. This is achieved by assessing the factors that contributed to the conflict between the Korean government and the Korean public over the KORUS FTA beef agreement.     

Models to Assess the Risk of Snow and Wind Damage in Pine, Spruce, and Birch Forests in Sweden

3 are damaged annually by snow and wind, roughly corresponding to a value of US$150 million, and in Europe, the damage amounts to hundreds of millions of US dollars each year. To help to reduce these losses, tools for risk assessment within forest management have been developed. Predictions were developed of the risk of damage from snow and wind to Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] and Birch (Betula spp. L.) plots using tree, stand, and site characteristics. The data were obtained from 6756 permanent sample plots within the Swedish National Forest Inventory, which were inventoried twice at five-year intervals between 1983 and 1992. Input data for model development used measurements from the first inventory of tree characteristics for the largest sample tree, stand, and site data, and records of snow and wind damage from the second inventory. Models were developed for three different regions for pine- and spruce-dominated sites, while models for the whole country were developed for birch sites. In general the estimated proportion of damaged plots was highly overestimated (31.7%–56.2%), compared with the observed proportion of 3.4%–11.9%. The models for Norway spruce comprising tree, stand, and site data show the best predictability of damaged plots, with 60.6%–67.6% of plots correctly classified. It is concluded that the models developed can be used to detect sites with a high probability of damage from snow and wind, and thus be used as tools to reduce future damage and costs in practical forestry.     

Assessing Uncertainty in Estimates of Nitrogen Loading to Estuaries for Research, Planning, and Risk Assessment

Parametric (propagation for normal error estimates) and nonparametric methods (bootstrap and enumeration of combinations) to assess the uncertainty in calculated rates of nitrogen loading were compared, based on the propagation of uncertainty observed in the variables used in the calculation. In addition, since such calculations are often based on literature surveys rather than random replicate measurements for the site in question, error propagation was also compared using the uncertainty of the sampled population (e.g., standard deviation) as well as the uncertainty of the mean (e.g., standard error of the mean). Calculations for the predicted nitrogen loading to a shallow estuary (Waquoit Bay, MA) were used as an example. The previously estimated mean loading from the watershed (5,400 ha) to Waquoit Bay (600 ha) was 23,000 kg N yr⁻¹. The mode of a nonparametric estimate of the probability distribution differed dramatically, equaling only 70% of this mean. Repeated observations were available for only 8 of the 16 variables used in our calculation. We estimated uncertainty in model predictions by treating these as sample replicates. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of the standard error of the mean loading rate were 12–14%. However, since the available data include site-to-site variability, as is often the case, standard error may be an inappropriate measure of confidence. The standard deviations were around 38% of the loading rate. Further, 95% confidence intervals differed between the nonparametric and parametric methods, with those of the nonparametric method arranged asymmetrically around the predicted loading rate. The disparity in magnitude and symmetry of calculated confidence limits argue for careful consideration of the nature of the uncertainty of variables used in chained calculations. This analysis also suggests that a nonparametric method of calculating loading rates using most frequently observed values for variables used in loading calculations may be more appropriate than using mean values. These findings reinforce the importance of including assessment of uncertainty when evaluating nutrient loading rates in research and planning. Risk assessment, which may need to consider relative probability of extreme events in worst-case scenarios, will be in serious error using normal estimates, or even the nonparametric bootstrap. A method such as our enumeration of combinations produces a more reliable distribution of risk.     

Managing the potential public health risks from bioaerosol liberation at commercial composting sites in the UK: An analysis of the evidence base

The diversion of biodegradable waste from landfill is of key importance in developing a sustainable waste strategy for the next decade and beyond. The proliferation of waste treatment technologies such as Mechanical Biological Treatment, Anaerobic Digestion and Composting will be paramount in achieving this strategic goal. This paper evaluates the scientific information needed to undertake an effective assessment of the potential public health risks from exposure to bioaerosols in the vicinity of commercial composting activities. Knowledge gaps currently exist in the scientific and regulatory community that limit our ability to effectively characterise source-term emissions, develop reliable dose–response data and accurately model the dispersion of bioaerosols. Consequently reliable risk estimates cannot be developed to inform the management of these potential risks. This uncertainty may prove a barrier to progress in achieving waste diversion and composting targets in Wales and the rest of the UK. A robust and extensive evidence base is required to inform the risk assessment process. This paper advocates the need for further, more focussed research into hazard characterisation of viable and non-viable organisms, improved dose–response data, exposure assessment techniques and an evaluation of the existing risk control and mitigation measures currently adopted. It is hoped that his will enable effective, timely and proportional risk management and mitigation measures to be developed that will foster the confidence required in composting technologies to achieve waste diversion targets and develop sustainable waste strategies.     

Priority screening of toxic chemicals and industry sectors in the U.S. toxics release inventory: a comparison of the life cycle impact-based and risk-based assessment tools developed by U.S. EPA

Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) and Risk Assessment (RA) employ different approaches to evaluate toxic impact potential for their own general applications. LCIA is often used to evaluate toxicity potentials for corporate environmental management and RA is often used to evaluate a risk score for environmental policy in government. This study evaluates the cancer, non-cancer, and ecotoxicity potentials and risk scores of chemicals and industry sectors in the United States on the basis of the LCIA- and RA-based tools developed by U.S. EPA, and compares the priority screening of toxic chemicals and industry sectors identified with each method to examine whether the LCIA- and RA-based results lead to the same prioritization schemes. The Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI) is applied as an LCIA-based screening approach with a focus on air and water emissions, and the Risk-Screening Environmental Indicator (RSEI) is applied in equivalent fashion as an RA-based screening approach. The U.S. Toxic Release Inventory is used as the dataset for this analysis, because of its general applicability to a comprehensive list of chemical substances and industry sectors. Overall, the TRACI and RSEI results do not agree with each other in part due to the unavailability of characterization factors and toxic scores for select substances, but primarily because of their different evaluation approaches. Therefore, TRACI and RSEI should be used together both to support a more comprehensive and robust approach to screening of chemicals for environmental management and policy and to highlight substances that are found to be of concern from both perspectives.     

Minimizing external indirect health costs due to aerosol population exposure: a case study from Northern Italy

Environmental Agencies require Decision Support Systems, in order to plan Air Quality Policies considering the cost of emission reduction measures and the human health effects (with related social costs). The use of Decision Support Systems is also useful to spread information to general public, explaining the effectiveness of proposed air quality plans. In this paper, a multi-objective approach to control PM10 concentration at a regional level is presented. The problem considers both the internal costs (due to the implementation of emission reduction measures) and the external costs (due to population exposure to high PM10 concentrations). To model PM10 concentrations, a single surrogate model is used for the entire domain, allowing the implementation of a very efficient optimization procedure. The surrogate model is derived through a set of 10 simulations, performed using a Chemistry Transport Model fed with different emission reduction scenarios. The methodology is applied to Northern Italy, a region affected by very high PM10 concentrations that exceed the limit values specified by the EU legislation.     

Modeling Long-Term Risk to Environmental and Human Systems at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation: Scope and Findings from the Initial Model

The Groundwater Protection Project at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State is currently developing the means to assess the cumulative impact to human and ecological health and the regional economy and cultures from radioactive and chemical waste that will remain at the Hanford Site after the site closes. This integrated system is known as the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The SAC Risk/Impact Module discussed in the article uses media- and time-specific concentrations of contaminants estimated by the transport models of the integrated system to project potential impacts on the ecology of the Columbia River corridor, the health of persons who might live in or use the corridor or the upland Hanford environment, the local economy, and cultural resources. Preliminary Monte Carlo realizations from the SAC modeling system demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale uncertainty analysis of the complex relationships in the environmental transport of contaminants on the one hand and ecological, human, cultural, and economic risk on the other. Initial impact results show very small long-term risks for the 10 radionuclides and chemicals evaluated. The analysis also helps determine science priorities to reduce uncertainty and suggests what actions matter to reduce risks.