The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01381-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Observed cold season changes in a Fennoscandian fell area over the past three decades

We studied trends and variability in snow and climate characteristics in 1978–2012 in the Värriötunturit fell area, northern Finland. Cold season changes were examined using long-term observational data on snow depths, meteorological data, large-scale climate indices, and reindeer herders’ experiences with difficult snow conditions. Snow depths declined, and temperatures increased significantly over the study period, with the largest changes observed in October–December and in April. Snow depths decreased particularly in forests at lower altitudes but not in treeless areas at higher altitudes. Interannual variability (but not the trends) in snow depths could be partially linked to large-scale climate indices. A majority of difficult reindeer grazing conditions were related to deep snow in the winter or spring. Our observations suggest that shortened duration of snow cover may facilitate reindeer grazing, whereas potentially more frequent formation of ice layers and mold growth on pastures in the future is disadvantageous for reindeer husbandry.     

Projected stream water fluxes of NO3 and total organic carbon from the Storgama headwater catchment, Norway, under climate change and reduced acid deposition

Fluctuations in the 20-year record of nitrate (NO3) and total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations and fluxes in runoff at the small headwater catchment Storgama, southern Norway, were related to climate and acid deposition. The long-term decline in NO3 related to reduced NO3 deposition and increased winter discharge, whereas the long-term increase in TOC related to reduced sulfur deposition. Multiple regression models describing long-term trends and seasonal variability in these records were used to project future concentrations given scenarios of climate change and acid deposition. All scenarios indicated reduced NO3 fluxes and increased TOC fluxes; the largest projected changes for the period 2071-2100 were -86% and +24%, respectively. Uncertainties are that the predicted future temperatures are considerably higher than the historical record. Also, nonlinear responses of ecosystem processes (nitrogen [N] mineralization) to temperature, N-enrichment of soils, and step-changes in environmental conditions may affect future leaching of carbon and N.     

Effects on the function of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives

Historically, the function of Arctic ecosystems in terms of cycles of nutrients and carbon has led to low levels of primary production and exchanges of energy, water and greenhouse gases have led to low local and regional cooling. Sequestration of carbon from atmospheric CO2, in extensive, cold organic soils and the high albedo from low, snow-covered vegetation have had impacts on regional climate. However, many aspects of the functioning of Arctic ecosystems are sensitive to changes in climate and its impacts on biodiversity. The current Arctic climate results in slow rates of organic matter decomposition. Arctic ecosystems therefore tend to accumulate organic matter and elements despite low inputs. As a result, soil-available elements like nitrogen and phosphorus are key limitations to increases in carbon fixation and further biomass and organic matter accumulation. Climate warming is expected to increase carbon and element turnover, particularly in soils, which may lead to initial losses of elements but eventual, slow recovery. Individual species and species diversity have clear impacts on element inputs and retention in Arctic ecosystems. Effects of increased CO2 and UV-B on whole ecosystems, on the other hand, are likely to be small although effects on plant tissue chemisty, decomposition and nitrogen fixation may become important in the long-term. Cycling of carbon in trace gas form is mainly as CO2 and CH4. Most carbon loss is in the form of CO2, produced by both plants and soil biota. Carbon emissions as methane from wet and moist tundra ecosystems are about 5% of emissions as CO2 and are responsive to warming in the absence of any other changes. Winter processes and vegetation type also affect CH4 emissions as well as exchanges of energy between biosphere and atmosphere. Arctic ecosystems exhibit the largest seasonal changes in energy exchange of any terrestrial ecosystem because of the large changes in albedo from late winter, when snow reflects most incoming radiation, to summer when the ecosystem absorbs most incoming radiation. Vegetation profoundly influences the water and energy exchange of Arctic ecosystems. Albedo during the period of snow cover declines from tundra to forest tundra to deciduous forest to evergreen forest. Shrubs and trees increase snow depth which in turn increases winter soil temperatures. Future changes in vegetation driven by climate change are therefore, very likely to profoundly alter regional climate.     

Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.     

Ecosystem Response to Climatic Change: The Importance of the Cold Season

Winter climate and snow cover are the important drivers of plant community development in polar regions. However, the impacts of changing winter climate and associated changes in snow regime have received much less attention than changes during summer. Here, we synthesize the results from studies on the impacts of extreme winter weather events on polar heathland and lichen communities. Dwarf shrubs, mosses and soil arthropods were negatively impacted by extreme warming events while lichens showed variable responses to changes in extreme winter weather events. Snow mould formation underneath the snow may contribute to spatial heterogeneity in plant growth, arthropod communities and carbon cycling. Winter snow cover and depth will drive the reported impacts of winter climate change and add to spatial patterns in vegetation heterogeneity. The challenges ahead lie in obtaining better predictions on the snow patterns across the landscape and how these will be altered due to winter climate change.     

Ecosystem response to climatic change: the importance of the cold season

Winter climate and snow cover are the important drivers of plant community development in polar regions. However, the impacts of changing winter climate and associated changes in snow regime have received much less attention than changes during summer. Here, we synthesize the results from studies on the impacts of extreme winter weather events on polar heathland and lichen communities. Dwarf shrubs, mosses and soil arthropods were negatively impacted by extreme warming events while lichens showed variable responses to changes in extreme winter weather events. Snow mould formation underneath the snow may contribute to spatial heterogeneity in plant growth, arthropod communities and carbon cycling. Winter snow cover and depth will drive the reported impacts of winter climate change and add to spatial patterns in vegetation heterogeneity. The challenges ahead lie in obtaining better predictions on the snow patterns across the landscape and how these will be altered due to winter climate change.     

Synthesis of effects in four Arctic subregions

An assessment of impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems has emphasized geographical variability in responses of species and ecosystems to environmental change. This variability is usually associated with north-south gradients in climate, biodiversity, vegetation zones, and ecosystem structure and function. It is clear, however, that significant east-west variability in environment, ecosystem structure and function, environmental history, and recent climate variability is also important. Some areas have cooled while others have become warmer. Also, east-west differences between geographical barriers of oceans, archipelagos and mountains have contributed significantly in the past to the ability of species and vegetation zones to relocate in response to climate changes, and they have created the isolation necessary for genetic differentiation of populations and biodiversity hot-spots to occur. These barriers will also affect the ability of species to relocate during projected future warming. To include this east-west variability and also to strike a balance between overgeneralization and overspecialization, the ACIA identified four major sub regions based on large-scale differences in weather and climate-shaping factors. Drawing on information, mostly model output that can be related to the four ACIA subregions, it is evident that geographical barriers to species re-location, particularly the distribution of landmasses and separation by seas, will affect the northwards shift in vegetation zones. The geographical constraints--or facilitation--of northward movement of vegetation zones will affect the future storage and release of carbon, and the exchange of energy and water between biosphere and atmosphere. In addition, differences in the ability of vegetation zones to re-locate will affect the biodiversity associated with each zone while the number of species threatened by climate change varies greatly between subregions with a significant hot-spot in Beringia. Overall, the subregional synthesis demonstrates the difficulty of generalizing projections of responses of ecosystem structure and function, species loss, and biospheric feedbacks to the climate system for the whole Arctic region and implies a need for a far greater understanding of the spatial variability in the responses of terrestrial arctic ecosystems to climate change.     

Hydrological change--climate change impact simulations for Sweden

Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to give rise to changes in hydrological systems. This hydrological change, as with the change in climate variables, will vary regionally around the globe. Impact studies at local and regional scales are needed to assess how different regions will be affected. This study focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over a wide range of Swedish basins. Different methods of transferring the signal of climate change from climate models to hydrological models were used. Several hydrological model simulations using regional climate model scenarios from Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) are presented. A principal conclusion is that subregional impacts to river flow vary considerably according to whether a basin is in northern or southern Sweden. Furthermore, projected hydrological change is just as dependent on the choice of the global climate model used for regional climate model boundary conditions as the choice of anthropogenic emissions scenario.     

Integrated Ocean Management as a Strategy to Meet Rapid Climate Change: The Norwegian Case

The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.     

Manipulation of snow in small headwater catchments at Storgama, Norway: effects on leaching of total organic carbon and total organic nitrogen

Projected increases in winter temperature due to future climate change may cause decreased snow accumulation at lower and intermediate altitudes in northern temperate regions. The resulting changes in soil temperature and water regime may affect the leaching of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON). We manipulated the snow cover of small headwater catchments in a montane heathland area of southern Norway to quantify its effect on concentrations and fluxes of TOC and TON in runoff. Manipulations included snow removal, to promote soil frost, and insulation, to prevent soil frost. Snow removal resulted in increased TOC and TON concentrations, but decreased fluxes. Insulation caused a slight decrease in concentrations and fluxes of TOC. Our experiments show that a change in snow depth, and thus soil temperature, is not likely to have serious effects on TOC and TON leaching in the montane heathland area studied.     

Hydroclimatic changes and drivers in the Sava River Catchment and comparison with Swedish catchments

In this study, we investigate long-term hydroclimatic changes and their possible relation to regional changes in climate, land-use and water-use over the twentieth century in the transboundary Sava River Catchment (SRC) in South Eastern Europe. In a hydropower dominated part of the SRC, unlike in an unregulated part, we find increase in average annual evapotranspiration and decrease in temporal runoff variability, which are not readily explainable by observed concurrent climate change in temperature and precipitation and may be more related to landscape-internal change drivers. Among the latter investigated here, results indicate hydropower developments as most closely related to the found hydroclimatic shifts, consistent with previous such indications in studies of Swedish hydropower catchments. Overall, the present results have quantitatively framed the recent history and present state of hydroclimate in the SRC, of relevance for water resources in several countries and for a majority of their populations. This provides a useful basis for further assessment of possible future hydroclimatic changes, under different scenarios of climate change and land/water-use developments in the region.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0641-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The carbon budget of Canadian forests: a sensitivity analysis of changes in disturbance regimes, growth rates, and decomposition rates

Ecosystem responses to climate changes will affect the exchange of carbon (C) with the atmosphere, thus providing feedback for future climate response. We have developed a C budget model of Canadian forests and forest sector activities and used sensitivity analysis runs with changes in productivity, decomposition, and disturbance regimes to assess the sensitivity of the Canadian forest sector C budget over the next century. The model operates on data derived from Canada's National Forest Biomass Inventory, from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory global soil C data base, and from Canadian data bases that document areas annually disturbed by fire, insects, and harvesting. It simulates the dynamics of biomass and soil C pools (including detritus and coarse woody debris) as they are affected by growth, decomposition, and disturbances. For the reference run of the model, we assumed unchanging climate and disturbance regimes. Under these conditions, total ecosystem C increased by 2 Gt C (2.3%) over the 100-year simulation period. In the sensitivity analysis, we explored the effects of changes in the area annually disturbed by fire and insect-induced stand mortality (-60 to +300%), growth rates (-10 to +20%), decomposition rates (-10 to +25%), and combined changes in growth and decomposition rates. In every model run, the change of total ecosystem C relative to the reference run was less than 10%. Combined changes to growth and decomposition rates yielded very small deviations from the results of the reference run (-0.8 to +1.2%). Because disturbance regime changes affect forest age-class structure as well as forest dynamics, they are expected to affect C budgets strongly. Total ecosystem C, however, is slightly more sensitive to changes in growth and decomposition parameters than to changes in disturbance regimes. Although the sensitivity analysis results suggest that C budgets are little affected by the range of parameter changes implemented here, we must emphasize that our sensitivity analyses do not account for potentially important processes, such as regeneration failure or the shifts in forest distribution.     

Late Holocene wetland transgression and 500 years of vegetation and fire variability in the semi-arid Amboseli landscape,southern Kenya

The semi-arid Amboseli landscape, southern Kenya, is characterised by intermittent groundwater-fed wetlands that form sedimentary geoarchives recording past ecosystem changes. We present a 5000-year environmental history of a radiocarbon dated sediment core from Esambu Swamp adjacent to Amboseli National Park. Although radiocarbon dates suggest an unconformity or sedimentary gap that spans between 3800 and 500 cal year BP, the record provides a unique insight into the long-term ecosystem history and wetland processes, particularly the past 500 years. Climatic shifts, fire activity and recent anthropogenic activity drive changes in ecosystem composition. Prior to 3800 cal year BP the pollen data suggest semi-arid savanna ecosystem persisted near the wetland. The wetland transgressed at some time between 3800 and 500 cal year BP and it is difficult to constrain this timing further, and palustrine peaty sediments have accumulated since 400 cal year BP. Increased abundance of Afromontane forest taxa from adjacent highlands of Kilimanjaro and the Chyulu Hills and local arboreal taxa reflect changes in regional moisture budgets. Particularly transformative changes occurred in the last five centuries, associated with increased local biomass burning coeval with the arrival of Maa-speaking pastoralists and intensification of the ivory trade. Cereal crops occurred consistently from around 300 cal year BP, indicative of further anthropogenic activity. The study provides unique insight in Amboseli ecosystem history and the link between ecosystem drivers of change. Such long-term perspectives are crucial for future climate change and associated livelihood impacts, so that suitable responses to ensure sustainable management practices can be developed in an important conservation landscape.     

Simulated sea surface temperature and heat fluxes in different climates of the Baltic Sea

The physical state of the Baltic Sea in possible future climates is approached by numerical model experiments with a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model driven by different global simulations. Scenarios and recent climate simulations are compared to estimate changes. The sea surface is clearly warmer by 2.9 degrees C in the ensemble mean. The horizontal pattern of average annual mean warming can largely be explained in terms of ice-cover reduction. The transfer of heat from the atmosphere to the Baltic Sea shows a changed seasonal cycle: a reduced heat loss in fall, increased heat uptake in spring, and reduced heat uptake in summer. The interannual variability of surface temperature is generally increased. This is associated with a smoothed frequency distribution in northern basins. The overall heat budget shows increased solar radiation to the sea surface, which is balanced by changes of the other heat flux components.     

Effects of input uncertainty and variability on the modelled environmental fate of organic pollutants under global climate change scenarios

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to influence the fate, exposure and risks of organic pollutants to wildlife and humans. Multimedia chemical fate models have been previously applied to estimate how GCC affects pollutant concentrations in the environment and biota, but previous studies have not addressed how uncertainty and variability of model inputs affect model predictions. Here, we assess the influence of climate variability and chemical property uncertainty on future projections of environmental fate of six polychlorinated biphenyl congeners under different GCC scenarios using a spreadsheet version of the ChemCAN model and the Crystal Ball® software. Regardless of emission mode, results demonstrate: (i) uncertainty in degradation half-lives dominates the variance of modelled absolute levels of PCB congeners under GCC scenarios; (ii) when the ratios of predictions under GCC to predictions under present day climate are modelled, climate variability dominates the variance of modelled ratios; and (iii) the ratios also indicate a maximum of about a factor of 2 change in the long-term average environmental concentrations due to GCC that is forecasted between present conditions and the period between 2080 and 2099. We conclude that chemical property uncertainty does not preclude assessing relative changes in a GCC scenario compared to a present-day scenario if variance in model outputs due to chemical properties and degradation half-lives can be assumed to cancel out in the two scenarios.     

What determines the current presence or absence of permafrost in the Torneträsk region, a sub-arctic landscape in northern Sweden?

In a warming climate, permafrost is likely to be significantly reduced and eventually disappear from the sub-Arctic region. This will affect people at a range of scales, from locally by slumping of buildings and roads, to globally as melting of permafrost will most likely increase the emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane, which will further enhance global warming. In order to predict future changes in permafrost, it is crucial to understand what determines the presence or absence of permafrost under current climate conditions, to assess where permafrost is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and to identify where changes are already occurring. The Tornetr?sk region of northern sub-Arctic Sweden is one area where changes in permafrost have been recorded and where permafrost could be particularly vulnerable to any future climate changes. This paper therefore reviews the various physical, biological, and anthropogenic parameters that determine the presence or absence of permafrost in the Tornetr?sk region under current climate conditions, so that we can gain an understanding of its current vulnerability and potential future responses to climate change. A patchy permafrost distribution as found in the Tornetr?sk region is not random, but a consequence of site-specific factors that control the microclimate and hence the surface and subsurface temperature. It is also a product of past as well as current processes. In sub-Arctic areas such as northern Sweden, it is mainly the physical parameters, e.g., topography, soil type, and climate (in particular snow depth), that determine permafrost distribution. Even though humans have been present in the study area for centuries, their impacts on permafrost distribution can more or less be neglected at the catchment level. Because ongoing climate warming is projected to continue and lead to an increased snow cover, the permafrost in the region will most likely disappear within decades, at least at lower elevations.     

A screening model-based study of transport fluxes and fate of airborne mercury deposited onto catchment areas.

Dynamics of airborne mercury deposited onto catchment areas is investigated within the framework of a simulation model. Model results show that, for a particular atmospheric deposition rate, significant interannual variability in mercury transport flux in catchments is caused by climatology and corresponding differences in catchment soil loss rates; in comparison to the normal year, runoff flux increased by a factor of 2-3 for the wet year (rainfall 35% above normal) while for the dry year (rainfall 18% below normal) runoff flux decreased by factors of 5-7. The interaction of parameters describing soil type, topography and vegetation cover causes variability in both transport and emission fluxes among catchments; as soil loss rate increases by a factor of 5 due to variations in these parameters among the examined catchments, annual average transport flux increases by a factor of 3; and annual average emission flux of mercury (as Hg0) from soil to the atmosphere decreases by a factor of 2 due to the decreased levels of soil mercury associated with catchment soil loss increases. Seasonal variability of transport flux is associated with seasonal changes in precipitation and soil loss rates while seasonal changes of emission flux are primarily due to changes in soil moisture regime and temperature. Although modeled results are consistent with observational data from previous studies, they must be interpreted in a relative sense due to the screening-level character of this study.     

Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system

Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net effects of climate change on terrestrial feedbacks to the climate system. This uncertainty applies to magnitude, and even direction of some of the feedbacks.     

Simulating uncertainty in climate-pest models with fuzzy numbers

Inputs in climate-pest models are commonly expressed as point estimates ('crisp' numbers), which implies perfect knowledge of the system in study. In reality, however, all model inputs harbor some level of uncertainty. This is particularly true for climate change impact assessments where the inputs (i.e., climate projections) are highly uncertain. In this study, uncertainties in climate projections were expressed as 'fuzzy' numbers; these are uncertain numbers for which one knows that there is a range of possible values and that some values are 'more possible' than others. A generic pest risk model incorporating the combined effects of temperature, soil moisture, and cold stress was implemented in a fuzzy spreadsheet environment and run with three climate scenarios: (1) present climate (control run); (2) crisp climate change; and (3) fuzzy climate change. Under the crisp climate change scenario, winter and summer temperatures and precipitation were altered using best estimates (averaged predictions from the 1995 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]). Under the fuzzy scenario, climate changes were expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers, utilizing the extremes (lowest and highest predictions from the IPCC report) in addition to the best estimates. Under each scenario, environmental favorability was calculated for six locations in two geographical regions (Central North America and Southern Europe) with two hypothetical pest species having temperate or mediterranean climate requirements. Simulations with the crisp climate change scenario suggested only minor changes in overall environmental favorability compared with the control run. When simulations were conducted with the fuzzy climate change scenario, however, important changes in environmental favorability emerged, particularly in Southern Europe. In that region, the possibility of considerably increased winter precipitation led to increased values of environmental favorability. However, the simulations also showed that this result harbored a very broad range of possible outcomes. The results support the notion that uncertainty in climate change projections must be reduced before reliable impact assessments can be achieved.