Assessing the costs and environmental benefits of IMO regulations of ship-originated SOx and NOx emissions in the Baltic Sea

To assess the value of the environmental benefits of the Sulphur Emission regulation (SECA) that came into force in 2015, changes in depositions of SOx and NOx from ship exhaust gas emissions were modelled and monetized for the Baltic Sea region for the years 2014 and 2016. During this period, the total deposition of SOx in the study area decreased by 7.3%. The decrease in ship-originated SOx deposition from 38 kt to 3.4 kt (by over 88%) was translated into a monetary value for the ecosystem impacts of nearly 130 million USD, according to the EcoValue08 model. This is less than the modelled health benefits, but it is not insignificant. For NOx, there was no decreasing trend. The exceedance of the critical loads of SOx and NOx was also estimated. The effect of Baltic shipping on the exceedance of critical loads of acidification after SECA is very small, but Baltic shipping still has a considerable effect on the exceedance of critical loads for eutrophication.     

Framework for the environmental impact assessment of operational shipping

Shipping is an important source of pollution affecting both atmospheric and aquatic environments. To allow for efficient mitigation of environmental degradation, it is essential to know the extent of the impacts of shipping in relation to other sources of pollution. Here, we give a perspective on a holistic approach to studies of the environmental impacts of operational shipping through presentation of an assessment framework developed and applied on a case of shipping in the Baltic Sea. Through transfer of knowledge and concepts, previously used in assessments of air pollution, now applied to assessments of marine pollution and underwater noise, the horizon of understanding of shipping-related impacts is significantly improved. It identifies the main areas of environmental degradation caused by shipping and potential improvements through legislation and technological development. However, as the vast majority of contaminants discharged into the sea are not routinely monitored and assessed, the links between pressure of contaminants from shipping and environmental state and impacts will not be caught in the current environmental regulatory frameworks.     

The Potential of Current- and Wind-Driven Transport for Environmental Management of the Baltic Sea

The ever increasing impact of the marine industry and transport on vulnerable sea areas puts the marine environment under exceptional pressure and calls for inspired methods for mitigating the impact of the related risks. We describe a method for preventive reduction of remote environmental risks caused by the shipping and maritime industry that are transported by surface currents and wind impact to the coasts. This method is based on characterizing systematically the damaging potential of the offshore areas in terms of potential transport to vulnerable regions of an oil spill or other pollution that has occurred in a particular area. The resulting maps of probabilities of pollution to be transported to the nearshore and the time it takes for the pollution to reach the nearshore are used to design environmentally optimized fairways for the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper, and south-western Baltic Sea.     

Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.     

The Baltic haline conveyor belt or the overturning circulation and mixing in the Baltic

A study of the water-mass circulation of the Baltic has been undertaken by making use of a three dimensional Baltic Sea model simulation. The saline water from the North Atlantic is traced through the Danish Sounds into the Baltic where it upwells and mixes with the fresh water inflow from the rivers forming a Baltic haline conveyor belt. The mixing of the saline water from the Great Belt and Oresund with the fresh water is investigated making use of overturning stream functions and Lagrangian trajectories. The overturning stream function was calculated as a function of four different vertical coordinates (depth, salinity, temperature and density) in order to understand the path of the water and where it upwells and mixes. Evidence of a fictive depth overturning cell similar to the Deacon Cell in the Southern Ocean was found in the Baltic proper corresponding to the gyre circulation around Gotland, which vanishes when the overturning stream function is projected on density layers. A Lagrangian trajectory study was performed to obtain a better view of the circulation and mixing of the saline and fresh waters. The residence time of the water masses in the Baltic is calculated to be 26-29 years and the Lagrangian dispersion reaches basin saturation after 5 years.     

Tradeoffs between environmental goals and urban development: the case of nitrogen load from the Stockholm County to the Baltic Sea

Urban dwellers depend on the generation of ecosystem services for their welfare. The city of Stockholm is growing, and a 25% increase in population is projected by 2030. The effects of urban development were estimated through the quantification of nitrogen (N) leakage to the Baltic Sea under two urban development scenarios. We found that total net N load will increase by 6% or 8%, depending on which growth scenario is applied, and population increase by itself will contribute at least 15% of the point source N leakage. Technical improvements in sewage treatment could, according to our results, decrease total N load to the Baltic Sea by 4%. Based on our results, we conclude that proactive measures such as spatial urban planning can provide a constructive tool for sustainable urban development on regional as well as national and international scales, depending on geographical context as well as the ecosystem services' scale of operation.     

Framing Environmental Risks in the Baltic Sea: A News Media Analysis

Scientific complexity and uncertainty is a key challenge for environmental risk governance and to understand how risks are framed and communicated is of utmost importance. The Baltic Sea ecosystem is stressed and exposed to different risks like eutrophication, overfishing, and hazardous chemicals. Based on an analysis of the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter, this study discusses media representations of these risks. The results show that the reporting on the Baltic Sea has been fairly stable since the beginning of the 1990s. Many articles acknowledge several risks, but eutrophication receives the most attention and is also considered the biggest threat. Authorities, experts, organizations, and politicians are the dominating actors, while citizens and industry representatives are more or less invisible. Eutrophication is not framed in terms of uncertainty concerning the risk and consequences, but rather in terms of main causes.     

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.     

A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index

Since 2001/2002, the correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation index and biological variables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea fails, which might be addressed to a global climate regime shift. To understand inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in environmental variables, a new multivariate index for the Baltic Sea is developed and presented here. The multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental (BSE) index is defined as the 1st principal component score of four z-transformed time series: the Arctic Oscillation index, the salinity between 120 and 200 m in the Gotland Sea, the integrated river runoff of all rivers draining into the Baltic Sea, and the relative vorticity of geostrophic wind over the Baltic Sea area. A statistical downscaling technique has been applied to project different climate indices to the sea surface temperature in the Gotland, to the Landsort gauge, and the sea ice extent. The new BSE index shows a better performance than all other climate indices and is equivalent to the Chen index for physical properties. An application of the new index to zooplankton time series from the central Baltic Sea (Latvian EEZ) shows an excellent skill in potential predictability of environmental time series.     

How will Ocean Acidification Affect Baltic Sea Ecosystems? An Assessment of Plausible Impacts on Key Functional Groups

Increasing partial pressure of atmospheric CO₂ is causing ocean pH to fall—a process known as ‘ocean acidification’. Scenario modeling suggests that ocean acidification in the Baltic Sea may cause a ≤3 times increase in acidity (reduction of 0.2–0.4 pH units) by the year 2100. The responses of most Baltic Sea organisms to ocean acidification are poorly understood. Available data suggest that most species and ecologically important groups in the Baltic Sea food web (phytoplankton, zooplankton, macrozoobenthos, cod and sprat) will be robust to the expected changes in pH. These conclusions come from (mostly) single-species and single-factor studies. Determining the emergent effects of ocean acidification on the ecosystem from such studies is problematic, yet very few studies have used multiple stressors and/or multiple trophic levels. There is an urgent need for more data from Baltic Sea populations, particularly from environmentally diverse regions and from controlled mesocosm experiments. In the absence of such information it is difficult to envision the likely effects of future ocean acidification on Baltic Sea species and ecosystems.     

Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Biogeochemical Cycles, Benthic Fauna, and Management

Hypoxia has occurred intermittently over the Holocene in the Baltic Sea, but the recent expansion from less than 10 000 km² before 1950 to >60 000 km² since 2000 is mainly caused by enhanced nutrient inputs from land and atmosphere. With worsening hypoxia, the role of sediments changes from nitrogen removal to nitrogen release as ammonium. At present, denitrification in the water column and sediments is equally important. Phosphorus is currently buried in sediments mainly in organic form, with an additional contribution of reduced Fe-phosphate minerals in the deep anoxic basins. Upon the transition to oxic conditions, a significant proportion of the organic phosphorus will be remineralized, with the phosphorus then being bound to iron oxides. This iron-oxide bound phosphorus is readily released to the water column upon the onset of hypoxia again. Important ecosystems services carried out by the benthic fauna, including biogeochemical feedback-loops and biomass production, are also lost with hypoxia. The results provide quantitative knowledge of nutrient release and recycling processes under various environmental conditions in support of decision support tools underlying the Baltic Sea Action Plan.     

Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.     

Development of Tools for Integrated Monitoring and Assessment of Hazardous Substances and Their Biological Effects in the Baltic Sea

The need to develop biological effects monitoring to facilitate a reliable assessment of hazardous substances has been emphasized in the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission. An integrated chemical–biological approach is vitally important for the understanding and proper assessment of anthropogenic pressures and their effects on the Baltic Sea. Such an approach is also necessary for prudent management aiming at safeguarding the sustainable use of ecosystem goods and Services. The BEAST project (Biological Effects of Anthropogenic Chemical Stress: Tools for the Assessment of Ecosystem Health) set out to address this topic within the BONUS Programme. BEAST generated a large amount of quality-assured data on several biological effects parameters (biomarkers) in various marine species in different sub-regions of the Baltic Sea. New indicators (biological response measurement methods) and management tools (integrated indices) with regard to the integrated monitoring approach were suggested.     

Current levels of DDT,PCB and trace elements in the Baltic ringed seals (Phoca hispida baltica) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus)

Residue levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis[p-chlorophenyl]ethane (DDT) were determined from liver samples of ringed seals (Phoca lispida) from the Baltic Sea and Svalbard, and of grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) from the Baltic Sea and Sable Island in Canada. Both Baltic seal populations showed clearly higher average sum PCB (SPCB) and sum DDT (SDDT) levels than the reference seal populations. Among the Baltic seals, SPCB levels were twice as high as SDDT levels, and both contaminants were higher in ringed seals than in grey seals. A difference in gender was observed only in the Sable Island grey seal population, in which males showed a higher level of contamination than females. A reduction of the SDDT levels, and to a lower extent of the SPCB levels can be observed in the Baltic seals since the peak contaminant levels during the 1970s. The decrease has been more rapid in the grey seals than in the ringed seals. The SPCB levels in the Baltic ringed seals are still high enough to cause a threat to their well being. Residue levels of the trace elements mercury, cadmium, lead and selenium were determined from liver, kidney and muscle samples of grey seals from the Baltic Sea and Sable Island. Only cadmium showed a geographic difference being higher in the seals from Sable Island than from the Baltic Sea. No clear reduction of the metal burden can be observed in the Baltic grey seal population since the 1970s.     

Nitrogen fixation by cyanobacteria stimulates production in Baltic food webs

Filamentous, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria form extensive summer blooms in the Baltic Sea. Their ability to fix dissolved N₂ allows cyanobacteria to circumvent the general summer nitrogen limitation, while also generating a supply of novel bioavailable nitrogen for the food web. However, the fate of the nitrogen fixed by cyanobacteria remains unresolved, as does its importance for secondary production in the Baltic Sea. Here, we synthesize recent experimental and field studies providing strong empirical evidence that cyanobacterial nitrogen is efficiently assimilated and transferred in Baltic food webs via two major pathways: directly by grazing on fresh or decaying cyanobacteria and indirectly through the uptake by other phytoplankton and microbes of bioavailable nitrogen exuded from cyanobacterial cells. This information is an essential step toward guiding nutrient management to minimize noxious blooms without overly reducing secondary production, and ultimately most probably fish production in the Baltic Sea.     

Microbial metagenomics in the Baltic Sea: Recent advancements and prospects for environmental monitoring

Metagenomics refers to the analysis of DNA from a whole community. Metagenomic sequencing of environmental DNA has greatly improved our knowledge of the identity and function of microorganisms in aquatic, terrestrial, and human biomes. Although open oceans have been the primary focus of studies on aquatic microbes, coastal and brackish ecosystems are now being surveyed. Here, we review so far published studies on microbes in the Baltic Sea, one of the world’s largest brackish water bodies, using high throughput sequencing of environmental DNA and RNA. Collectively the data illustrate that Baltic Sea microbes are unique and highly diverse, and well adapted to this brackish-water ecosystem, findings that represent a novel base-line knowledge necessary for monitoring purposes and a sustainable management. More specifically, the data relate to environmental drivers for microbial community composition and function, assessments of the microbial biodiversity, adaptations and role of microbes in the nitrogen cycle, and microbial genome assembly from metagenomic sequences. With these discoveries as background, prospects of using metagenomics for Baltic Sea environmental monitoring are discussed.     

Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan

To reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, all nine surrounding countries have agreed upon reduction targets in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Yet, monitoring sites and model concepts for decision support are few. To provide one more tool for analysis of water and nutrient fluxes in the Baltic Sea basin, the HYPE model has been applied to the region (called Balt-HYPE). It was used here for experimenting with land-based remedial measures and future climate projections to quantify the impacts of these on water and nutrient loads to the sea. The results suggest that there is a possibility to reach the BSAP nutrient reduction targets by 2100, and that climate change may both aggravate and help in some aspects. Uncertainties in the model results are large, mainly due to the spread of the climate model projections, but also due to the hydrological model.     

Climate change effects on river flow to the Baltic Sea

River flow to the Baltic Sea originates under a range of different climate regimes in a drainage basin covering some 1,600,000 km2. Changes to the climate in the Baltic Basin will not only affect the total amount of freshwater flowing into the sea, but also the distribution of the origin of these flows. Using hydrological modeling, the effects of future climate change on river runoff to the Baltic Sea have been analyzed. Four different climate change scenarios from the Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) were used. The resulting change to total mean annual river flow to the Baltic Sea ranges from -2% to +15% of present-day flow according to the different climate scenarios. The magnitude of changes within different subregions of the basin varies considerably, with the most severe mean annual changes ranging from -30% to +40%. However, common to all of the scenarios evaluated is a general trend of reduced river flow from the south of the Baltic Basin together with increased river flow from the north.     

Identifying source regions for the atmospheric input of PCDD/Fs to the Baltic Sea

PCDD/F contamination of the Baltic Sea has resulted in the European Union imposing restrictions on the marketing of several fish species. Atmospheric deposition is the major source of PCDD/Fs to the Baltic Sea, and hence there is a need to identify the source regions of the PCDD/Fs in ambient air over the Baltic Sea. A novel monitoring strategy was employed to address this question. During the winter of 2006–2007 air samples were collected in Aspvreten (southern Sweden) and Pallas (northern Finland). Short sampling times (24 h) were employed and only samples with stable air mass back trajectories were selected for analysis of the 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDD/F congeners. The range in the PCDD/F concentrations from 40 samples collected at Aspvreten was a factor of almost 50 (range 0.6–29 fg TEQ/m³). When the samples were grouped according to air mass origin into seven compass sectors, the variability was much lower (typically less than a factor of 3). This indicates that air mass origin was the primary source of the variability. The contribution of each sector to the PCDD/F contamination over the Baltic Sea during the winter half year of 2006/2007 was calculated from the average PCDD/F concentration for each sector and the frequency with which the air over the Baltic Sea came from that sector. Air masses originating from the south–southwest, south–southeast and east segments contributed 65% of the PCDDs and 75% of the PCDFs. Strong correlations were obtained between the concentrations of most of the PCDD/F congeners and the concentration of soot. These correlations can be used to predict the PCDD/F concentrations during the winter half year from inexpensive soot measurements.     

Dioxin concentrations in sediments of the Baltic Sea--a survey of existing data

Recent survey results for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs, dioxins) in Baltic Sea sediments from Finland, Sweden and Denmark were merged with previously published Baltic Sea data. Regional distribution of concentration levels, differences in congener patterns, and temporal changes in sediment profiles were examined. One of the main objectives was to study if any major point sources for different PCDD/F congeners could be identified on a regional scale, based on sediment records. The survey confirmed the impact of chlorophenol production derived highly chlorinated PCDF-congeners on the total toxicity in sediments in the Gulf of Finland near the Kymijoki river estuary. Signatures of other point sources or combined point sources pertinent to specific industry branches or particular production processes (such as pulp bleaching, vinyl chloride production, thermal processes) may be discerned. However, the findings did not support any of the known point sources significantly influencing those congeners that are most abundant in Baltic herring and salmon. Instead, regional distributions in the Baltic Sea indicate that atmospheric deposition may act as a major source for those congeners and especially for 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF. There were clear indications of declines in levels in sediment in some areas, but generally the levels of highly chlorinated PCDD/Fs on the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland were still high when compared with other areas of the Baltic Sea. Major areas with data gaps cover the south-eastern and eastern coastal regions of the Baltic Proper and the southern Gulf of Finland.