Improved concepts and methods in analysis and evaluation of the urban climate for optimizing urban planning processes

Planning processes are strongly influenced by an increased awareness of environmental issues concerned by projected land-use transformations. A research project was carried out to produce climate maps for the region of Basel/Switzerland to enable planning authorities taking care of the urban climate and its interrelations with urban structures. Main focus was given to develop and implement a methodology meeting not only the regional requirements of Basel. The new approach is not depending on subjective criteria or manual interventions and ensures its applicability for other regions. Three basic concepts were developed or improved in this study. A new definition of `climatopes’ was introduced, and methods were developed for their digital determination by objective criteria. This definition of climatopes requires adequate information on land-use, which is provided by introducing the concept of `areal types'. In contrast to `traditional’ land-use classes directly derived from satellite images, areal types are complex aggregates reflecting not only different physical surface properties, but also socioeconomic aspects of land-use. `Ventilation classes’ are the second component required to delineate climatopes. They summarize the combined influencing factors of terrain features and land-use structures on wind field and urban ventilation. Their determination is based on topographic information and surface properties derived from a digital terrain model and from land-use data. The spatial distribution of climatopes was computed for Basel. Various quality assessment procedures and the application of climatopes for an automated generation of planning guidelines demonstrate the applicability of the concepts. Climate maps containing the results of the analysis and evaluation of the urban climate of Basel were estimated by the involved planners to be a valuable tool meeting their practical requirements to a high degree.     

Siberian environmental change: Synthesis of recent studies and opportunities for networking

A recent multidisciplinary compilation of studies on changes in the Siberian environment details how climate is changing faster than most places on Earth with exceptional warming in the north and increased aridity in the south. Impacts of these changes are rapid permafrost thaw and melt of glaciers, increased flooding, extreme weather events leading to sudden changes in biodiversity, increased forest fires, more insect pest outbreaks, and increased emissions of CO₂ and methane. These trends interact with sociological changes leading to land-use change, globalisation of diets, impaired health of Arctic Peoples, and challenges for transport. Local mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to be limited by a range of public perceptions of climate change that vary according to personal background. However, Siberia has the possibility through land surface feedbacks to amplify or suppress climate change impacts at potentially global levels. Based on the diverse studies presented in this Ambio Special Issue, we suggest ways forward for more sustainable environmental research and management.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01626-7.     

Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement.     

Gender-specific responses to climate variability in a semi-arid ecosystem in northern Benin

Highly erratic rainfall patterns in northern Benin complicate the ability of rural farmers to engage in subsistence agriculture. This research explores gender-specific responses to climate variability in the context of agrarian Benin through a household survey (n = 260) and an experimental gaming exercise among a subset of the survey respondents. Although men and women from the sample population are equally aware of climate variability and share similar coping strategies, their specific land-use strategies, preferences, and motivations are distinct. Over the long term, these differences would likely lead to dissimilar coping strategies and vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Examination of gender-specific land-use responses to climate change and anticipatory learning can enhance efforts to improve adaptability and resilience among rural subsistence farmers.     

Organizing For Risk Oriented Climate Alteration Research

The ubiquity in effects and complexity of modern environmental issues requires careful consideration of focused research to insure that answers to key policy oriented questions are obtained. Broad-based, unstructured research programs have proven to be inefficient instruments for characterizing risks from environmental stress. Both the expense and the importance of timeliness of information preclude a traditional “bottom-up” approach to research. Instead, a more “top-down” organized approach that links the natural and socioeconomic sciences has advantages to support environmental risk assessment and research prioritization of climate alteration. Early examples of analysis using an integrating framework for risk assessment focus on the need for research on human interactions and the environmental damage function in addition to the basic earth sciences. Nonlinearities in environmental impact of climate change, and uncertainties in the extent of growth of energy efficiencies, are seen to be key unknowns in the risk assessment of climate alternatives. To date, earth science research has not been structured well for environmental risk assessment of the climate change question. The U.S. national research program aimed at risk assessment of climate alteration is examined as an example. The examination suggests that the present conceptual plan falls short of an optimum structure derived from exploitation of an integrating framework, even though it is rich in scientific strength and diversity. To strengthen its public value and accessibility, the research program could account in its planning for prioritized needs defined by an integrating analysis for risk assessment and management.     

Conflict resolution by participatory management: remote sensing and GIS as tools for communicating land-use needs for reindeer herding in northern Sweden

When seeking to resolve complex land-management issues, geographical assessment of resources that are in short supply or in dispute can aid the communication of knowledge and the understanding among and between different stakeholders. In this paper, we illustrate how remote sensing and GIS can be used to gather and compile information regarding land-use activities and patterns among reindeer herders and other land users (forestry, mining, tourism, etc) in northern Sweden. The project represents a novel user-oriented effort largely based on the work carried out by the principal end user, i.e. the reindeer herders themselves. The basis for development of land-use plans for reindeer husbandry, was the following: to collect and digitally systemize traditional ecological and landscape knowledge of reindeer habitat use; to integrate this information with results from field inventories and satellite-based vegetation classifications; to map activities of other land users. The resulting land-use plans provide information that can facilitate consultation between the reindeer herders and other stakeholders and can facilitate operational work in reindeer management. This project can serve as a model for participatory involvement and planning, bringing indigenous knowledge and advanced remote-sensing techniques together in an interactive process.     

Forests under climate change and air pollution: gaps in understanding and future directions for research

Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between changes in air quality (trace gas concentrations), climate and other site factors on forest ecosystem response, (ii) significance of biotic processes in system response, (iii) tools for mechanistic and diagnostic understanding and upscaling, and (iv) the need for unifying modelling and empirical research for synthesis. This position paper highlights the above focuses, including the global dimension of air pollution as part of climate change and the need for knowledge transfer to enable reliable risk assessment. A new type of research site in forest ecosystems ("supersites") will be conducive to addressing these gaps by enabling integration of experimentation and modelling within the soil-plant-atmosphere interface, as well as further model development.     

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.     

What determines the current presence or absence of permafrost in the Torneträsk region, a sub-arctic landscape in northern Sweden?

In a warming climate, permafrost is likely to be significantly reduced and eventually disappear from the sub-Arctic region. This will affect people at a range of scales, from locally by slumping of buildings and roads, to globally as melting of permafrost will most likely increase the emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane, which will further enhance global warming. In order to predict future changes in permafrost, it is crucial to understand what determines the presence or absence of permafrost under current climate conditions, to assess where permafrost is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and to identify where changes are already occurring. The Tornetr?sk region of northern sub-Arctic Sweden is one area where changes in permafrost have been recorded and where permafrost could be particularly vulnerable to any future climate changes. This paper therefore reviews the various physical, biological, and anthropogenic parameters that determine the presence or absence of permafrost in the Tornetr?sk region under current climate conditions, so that we can gain an understanding of its current vulnerability and potential future responses to climate change. A patchy permafrost distribution as found in the Tornetr?sk region is not random, but a consequence of site-specific factors that control the microclimate and hence the surface and subsurface temperature. It is also a product of past as well as current processes. In sub-Arctic areas such as northern Sweden, it is mainly the physical parameters, e.g., topography, soil type, and climate (in particular snow depth), that determine permafrost distribution. Even though humans have been present in the study area for centuries, their impacts on permafrost distribution can more or less be neglected at the catchment level. Because ongoing climate warming is projected to continue and lead to an increased snow cover, the permafrost in the region will most likely disappear within decades, at least at lower elevations.     

From Site Data to Safety Assessment: Analysis of Present and Future Hydrological Conditions at a Coastal Site in Sweden

This paper presents an analysis of present and future hydrological conditions at the Forsmark site in Sweden, which has been proposed as the site for a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. Forsmark is a coastal site that changes in response to shoreline displacement. In the considered time frame (until year 10 000 ad), the hydrological system will be affected by landscape succession associated with shoreline displacement and changes in vegetation, regolith stratigraphy, and climate. Based on extensive site investigations and modeling of present hydrological conditions, the effects of different processes on future site hydrology are quantified. As expected, shoreline displacement has a strong effect on local hydrology (e.g., groundwater flow) in areas that change from sea to land. The comparison between present and future land areas emphasizes the importance of climate variables relative to other factors for main hydrological features such as water balances.     

Change in spring arrival of migratory birds under an era of climate change,Swedish data from the last 140 years

Many migratory bird species have advanced their spring arrival during the latest decades, most probably due to climate change. However, studies on migratory phenology in the period before recent global warming are scarce. We have analyzed a historical dataset (1873–1917) of spring arrival to southern and central Sweden of 14 migratory bird species. In addition, we have used relative differences between historical and present-day observations (1984–2013) to evaluate the effect of latitude and migratory strategy on day of arrival over time. There was a larger change in spring phenology in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants. Interestingly, the results further suggest that climate change has affected the phenology of short-distance migrants more in southern than in central Sweden. The results suggest that the much earlier calculated arrival to southern Sweden among short-distance migrants mirrors a change in location of wintering areas, hence, connecting migration phenology and wintering range shifts.     

Questioning complacency: climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway

Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation.     

Understanding and managing the interactions of impacts from nature-based recreation and climate change

Disturbance to ecosystems in parks and protected areas from nature-based tourism and recreation is increasing in scale and severity, as are the impacts of climate change—but there is limited research examining the degree to which these anthropogenic disturbances interact. In this perspective paper, we draw on the available literature to expose complex recreation and climate interactions that may alter ecosystems of high conservation value such that important species and processes no longer persist. Our emphasis is on ecosystems in high demand for tourism and recreation that also are increasingly experiencing stress from climate change. We discuss the importance of developing predictive models of direct and indirect effects, including threshold and legacy effects at different levels of biological organization. We present a conceptual model of these interactions to initiate a dialog among researchers and managers so that new research approaches and managerial frameworks are advanced to address this emerging issue.     

Arctic Climate Change,Economy and Society (ACCESS): Integrated perspectives

This introduction to the special issue presents an overview of the wide range of results produced during the European Union project Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS). This project assessed the main impacts of climate change on Arctic Ocean’s geophysical variables and how these impending changes could be expected to impact directly and indirectly on socio-economic activities like transportation, marine sea food production and resource exploitation. Related governance issues were examined. These results were used to develop several management tools that can live on beyond ACCESS. In this article, we synthesize most of the project results in the form of tentative responses to questions raised during the project. By doing so, we put the findings of the project in a broader perspective and introduce the contributions made in the different articles published in this special issue.     

A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930–1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.     

Base cation deposition in europe-part I. Model description, results and uncertainties

Deposition of base cations (Na⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, K⁺) in Europe was mapped for 1989 with a spatial resolution of 10 x 20 km using the so-called inferential modeling technique. Deposition fields resembled the geographic variability of sources, land-use and climate. Dry deposition constituted on average 45% of the total base cation deposition in Europe. Modeled deposition estimates compared reasonably well with deposition estimates derived from throughfall and bulk-precipitation measurements made at 174 sites scattered over Europe. Using error propagation, the random and systematic error in total deposition for an average grid cell of 10 x 20 km was estimated to equal 35–50% and 25–40%, respectively. Within individual grids a relatively large variability in deposition is expected.     

Homegardens as a Multi-functional Land-Use Strategy in Sri Lanka with Focus on Carbon Sequestration

This paper explores the concept of homegardens and their potential functions as strategic elements in land-use planning, and adaptation and mitigation to climate change in Sri Lanka. The ancient and locally adapted agroforestry system of homegardens is presently estimated to occupy nearly 15 % of the land area in Sri Lanka and is described in the scientific literature to offer several ecosystem services to its users; such as climate regulation, protection against natural hazards, enhanced land productivity and biological diversity, increased crop diversity and food security for rural poor and hence reduced vulnerability to climate change. Our results, based on a limited sample size, indicate that the homegardens also store significant amount of carbon, with above ground biomass carbon stocks in dry zone homegardens (n = 8) ranging from 10 to 55 megagrams of carbon per hectare (Mg C ha⁻¹) with a mean value of 35 Mg C ha⁻¹, whereas carbon stocks in wet zone homegardens (n = 4) range from 48 to 145 Mg C ha⁻¹ with a mean value of 87 Mg C ha⁻¹. This implies that homegardens may contain a significant fraction of the total above ground biomass carbon stock in the terrestrial system in Sri Lanka, and from our estimates its share has increased from almost one-sixth in 1992 to nearly one-fifth in 2010. In the light of current discussions on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), the concept of homegardens in Sri Lanka provides interesting aspects to the debate and future research in terms of forest definitions, setting reference levels, and general sustainability.     

Climate change decision-making: science, policy and economics

The threat of global climate change poses an unprecedented challenge to humanity. Although climate change is potentially important, it is crucial to recognise also that (especially for the developing countries) there are a number of other priorities that affect human welfare more immediately - such as hunger and malnutrition, poverty, health, and pressing local environmental issues. In this context, predictions about climate change, its impacts, and the costs of mitigation are important for the policy-making dimension, because climate change issues reside within broader questions about sustainable development. One major objective of human development is sustainability, and the pursuit of greater precision in climate prediction can help with progress toward this goal.     

Effect of climate change on air quality

Air quality is strongly dependent on weather and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Recent studies have provided estimates of this climate effect through correlations of air quality with meteorological variables, perturbation analyses in chemical transport models (CTMs), and CTM simulations driven by general circulation model (GCM) simulations of 21st-century climate change. We review these different approaches and their results. The future climate is expected to be more stagnant, due to a weaker global circulation and a decreasing frequency of mid-latitude cyclones. The observed correlation between surface ozone and temperature in polluted regions points to a detrimental effect of warming. Coupled GCM–CTM studies find that climate change alone will increase summertime surface ozone in polluted regions by 1–10 ppb over the coming decades, with the largest effects in urban areas and during pollution episodes. This climate penalty means that stronger emission controls will be needed to meet a given air quality standard. Higher water vapor in the future climate is expected to decrease the ozone background, so that pollution and background ozone have opposite sensitivities to climate change. The effect of climate change on particulate matter (PM) is more complicated and uncertain than for ozone. Precipitation frequency and mixing depth are important driving factors but projections for these variables are often unreliable. GCM–CTM studies find that climate change will affect PM concentrations in polluted environments by ±0.1–1 μg m^?3 over the coming decades. Wildfires fueled by climate change could become an increasingly important PM source. Major issues that should be addressed in future research include the ability of GCMs to simulate regional air pollution meteorology and its sensitivity to climate change, the response of natural emissions to climate change, and the atmospheric chemistry of isoprene. Research needs to be undertaken on the effect of climate change on mercury, particularly in view of the potential for a large increase in mercury soil emissions driven by increased respiration in boreal ecosystems.     

Comparison of carbon balances between continuous-cover and clear-cut forestry in Sweden

Continuous-cover forestry (CCF) has been recognized for the production of multiple ecosystem services, and is seen as an alternative to clear-cut forestry (CF). Despite the increasing interest, it is still not well described how CCF would affect the carbon balance and the resulting climate benefit from the forest in relation to CF. This study compares carbon balances of CF and CCF, applied as two alternative land-use strategies for a heterogeneous Norway spruce (Picea abies) stand. We use a set of models to analyze the long-term effects of different forest management and wood use strategies in Sweden on carbon dioxide emissions and carbon stock changes. The results show that biomass growth and yield is more important than the choice of silvicultural system per se. When comparing CF and CCF assuming similar growth, extraction and product use, only minor differences in long-term climate benefit were found between the two principally different silvicultural systems.