Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis

Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of ‘Continental Europe’. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50–100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40–50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects.     

The impact of climate change on three indicator Galliformes species in the northern highlands of Pakistan

The rise in global temperature is one of the main threats of extinction to many vulnerable species by the twenty-first century. The negative impacts of climate change on the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition. Range shifts and range reduction in the forested landscapes will dramatically affect the distribution of forest-dwelling species, including the Galliformes (ground birds). Three Galliformes (e.g., Lophophorus impejanus, Pucrasia macrolopha, and Tragopan melanocephalus) are indicator species of the environment and currently distributed in NHP. For this study, we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to simulate the current (average for 1960–1990) and future (in 2050 and 2070) distributions of the species using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 (moderate carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (peak carbon emission scenario). Our results indicated that (i) under all three climate scenarios, species distribution was predicted to both reduce and shift towards higher altitudes. (ii) Across the provinces in the NHP, the species were predicted to average lose around one-third (35%) in 2050 and one-half (47%) by 2070 of the current suitable habitat. (iii) The maximum area of climate refugia was projected between the altitudinal range of 2000 to 4000 m and predicted to shift towards higher altitudes primarily?>?3000 m in the future. Our results help inform management plans and conservation strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on three indicator Galliforms species in the NHP.

     

The negative impacts of human activities in the eastern African region: an international waters perspective

The complex interactions between human activities and the environment at the interface of land and water is analyzed with a focus on the Somali Current (East Africa), and Indian Ocean Island States, subregions of the Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA). These 2 subregions contain some of the world's richest ecosystems, including the high biodiversity forests of Madagascar and the diverse coastal habitats of the eastern African coast. These ecosystems support local communities and national and regional economies. Current and future degradation of these systems, from water basins to continental shelves, affects the livelihoods and sustainability of the countries in the region, and long-term efforts to reduce poverty. The assessments determined that pollution and climate change are the primary environmental and social concerns in the Islands of the Indian Ocean, while freshwater shortage and unsustainable exploitation of fisheries and other living resources are the primary environmental and social concerns in East Africa. The GIWA approach, through assessing root causes of environmental concerns, enables the development of policy approaches for mitigating environmental degradation. This paper explores policy frameworks for mitigating the impacts, and reducing the drivers, of 3 environmental concerns--freshwater shortage; solid waste pollution; and climate change--addressing social and institutional causes and effects, and linking the subregions to broad international frameworks. The common theme in all 3 case studies is the need to develop integrated ecosystem and international waters policies, and mechanisms to manage conflicting interests and to limit threats to natural processes.     

Modeling the effect of climate change on the distribution of threatened medicinal orchid Satyrium nepalense D. Don in India

It is vital to understand the distribution area of a threatened plant species for its better conservation and management planning. Satyrium nepalense (family: Orchidaceae) is a threatened terrestrial orchid species with valuable medicinal and nutritional properties. The survival of S. nepalense in wild conditions has been challenged by increasing global surface temperature. Hence, understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is crucial to conserve and restore this species. In present study, Maxent species distribution modeling algorithm was used to simulate the current distribution of S. nepalense in India and predict the possible range shift in projected future climate scenarios. A set of 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database were used to predict the potential suitable habitats in current climatic condition and four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios by integrating five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for future distribution modeling of species for the years 2050 and 2070. Furthermore, change analysis was performed to identify the suitable habitat in current and future climate for delineating range expansion (gain), contraction (loss), and stable (no change) habitats of species. The Maxent model predicted that?~?2.38% of the geographical area in India is presently climatically suitable for S. nepalense. The key bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of studied species were the mean temperature of warmest quarter, mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature seasonality. Under future climate change scenarios, the total suitable habitat of S. nepalense will increase slightly in the Himalayan region and likely to migrate towards northward, but in the Western Ghats region, the suitable areas will be lost severely. The net habitat loss under four RCP scenarios was estimated from 26 to 39% for the year 2050, which could further increase from 47 to 60% by the year 2070. The finding of the predictive Maxent modeling approach indicates that warming climates could significantly affect the potential habitats of S. nepalense and hence suitable conservation measures need to be taken to protect this threatened orchid species in wild conditions.

     

Siberian environmental change: Synthesis of recent studies and opportunities for networking

A recent multidisciplinary compilation of studies on changes in the Siberian environment details how climate is changing faster than most places on Earth with exceptional warming in the north and increased aridity in the south. Impacts of these changes are rapid permafrost thaw and melt of glaciers, increased flooding, extreme weather events leading to sudden changes in biodiversity, increased forest fires, more insect pest outbreaks, and increased emissions of CO₂ and methane. These trends interact with sociological changes leading to land-use change, globalisation of diets, impaired health of Arctic Peoples, and challenges for transport. Local mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to be limited by a range of public perceptions of climate change that vary according to personal background. However, Siberia has the possibility through land surface feedbacks to amplify or suppress climate change impacts at potentially global levels. Based on the diverse studies presented in this Ambio Special Issue, we suggest ways forward for more sustainable environmental research and management.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01626-7.     

Climate change and national crop wild relative conservation planning

Climate change is likely to be one of the most important factors affecting our future food security. To mitigate negative impacts, we will require our crops to be more genetically diverse. Such diversity is available in crop wild relatives (CWRs), the wild taxa relatively closely related to crops and from which diverse traits can be transferred to the crop. Conservation of such genetic resources resides within the nation where they are found; therefore, national-level conservation recommendations are fundamental to global food security. We investigate the potential impact of climate change on CWR richness in Norway. The consequences of a 1.5 and 3.0 °C temperature rise were studied for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, 2080 and then compared to the present climate. The results indicate a pattern of shifting CWR richness from the south to the north, with increases in taxa turnover and in the numbers of threatened taxa. Recommendations for in situ and ex situ conservation actions over the short and long term for the priority CWRs in Norway are presented. The methods and recommendations developed here can be applied within other nations and at regional and global levels to improve the effectiveness of conservation actions and help ensure global food security.     

The impact of swidden decline on livelihoods and ecosystem services in Southeast Asia: A review of the evidence from 1990 to 2015

Global economic change and policy interventions are driving transitions from long-fallow swidden (LFS) systems to alternative land uses in Southeast Asia’s uplands. This study presents a systematic review of how these transitions impact upon livelihoods and ecosystem services in the region. Over 17 000 studies published between 1950 and 2015 were narrowed, based on relevance and quality, to 93 studies for further analysis. Our analysis of land-use transitions from swidden to intensified cropping systems showed several outcomes: more households had increased overall income, but these benefits came at significant cost such as reductions of customary practice, socio-economic wellbeing, livelihood options, and staple yields. Examining the effects of transitions on soil properties revealed negative impacts on soil organic carbon, cation-exchange capacity, and aboveground carbon. Taken together, the proximate and underlying drivers of the transitions from LFS to alternative land uses, especially intensified perennial and annual cash cropping, led to significant declines in pre-existing livelihood security and the ecosystem services supporting this security. Our results suggest that policies imposing land-use transitions on upland farmers so as to improve livelihoods and environments have been misguided; in the context of varied land uses, swidden agriculture can support livelihoods and ecosystem services that will help buffer the impacts of climate change in Southeast Asia.     

Spontaneous revegetation vs. forestry reclamation in post-mining sand pits

Vegetation development of sites restored by two different methods, spontaneous revegetation and forestry reclamation, was compared in four sand pit mining complexes located in the southern part of the Czech Republic, central Europe. The space-for-time substitution method was applied to collect vegetation records in 13 differently aged and sufficiently large sites with known history. The restoration method, age (time since site abandonment/reclamation), groundwater table, slope, and aspect in all sampled plots were recorded in addition to the visual estimation of percentage cover of all present vascular plant species. Multivariate methods and GLM were used for the data elaboration. Restoration method was the major factor influencing species pattern. Both spontaneously revegetated and forestry reclaimed sites developed towards forest on a comparable timescale. Although the sites did not significantly differ in species richness (160 species in spontaneously revegetated vs. 111 in forestry reclaimed sites), spontaneously revegetated sites tended to be more diverse with more species of conservation potential (10 Red List species in spontaneous sites vs. 4 Red List species in forestry reclaimed sites). These results support the use of spontaneous revegetation as an effective and low-cost method of sand pit restoration and may contribute to implementation of this method in practice.     

Terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change

The terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change are critical for agricultural and natural ecosystems. In this paper, we assess both by running a macro-scale water balance model under a baseline condition and 2 General Circulation Model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The results show that in 2021-2030, water demand will increase worldwide due to climate change. Water shortage is expected to worsen in western Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, northern and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, southwestern North America, and central South America. A significant increase in surface runoff is expected in southern Asia and a significant decrease is expected in northern South America. These changes will have implications for regional environment and socioeconomics.     

Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate: A Review of Threats and Implications for Conservation Planning in Myanmar

High levels of species richness and endemism make Myanmar a regional priority for conservation. However, decades of economic and political sanctions have resulted in low conservation investment to effectively tackle threats to biodiversity. Recent sweeping political reforms have placed Myanmar on the fast track to economic development—the expectation is increased economic investments focused on the exploitation of the country’s rich, and relatively intact, natural resources. Within a context of weak regulatory capacity and inadequate environmental safeguards, rapid economic development is likely to have far-reaching negative implications for already threatened biodiversity and natural-resource-dependent human communities. Climate change will further exacerbate prevailing threats given Myanmar’s high exposure and vulnerability. The aim of this review is to examine the implications of increased economic growth and a changing climate within the larger context of biodiversity conservation in Myanmar. We summarize conservation challenges, assess direct climatological impacts on biodiversity and conclude with recommendations for long-term adaptation approaches for biodiversity conservation.     

Status and trends of tundra birds across the circumpolar Arctic

Tundra-breeding birds face diverse conservation challenges, from accelerated rates of Arctic climate change to threats associated with highly migratory life histories. Here we summarise the status and trends of Arctic terrestrial birds (88 species, 228 subspecies or distinct flyway populations) across guilds/regions, derived from published sources, raw data or, in rare cases, expert opinion. We report long-term trends in vital rates (survival, reproduction) for the handful of species and regions for which these are available. Over half of all circumpolar Arctic wader taxa are declining (51% of 91 taxa with known trends) and almost half of all waterfowl are increasing (49% of 61 taxa); these opposing trends have fostered a shift in community composition in some locations. Declines were least prevalent in the African-Eurasian Flyway (29%), but similarly prevalent in the remaining three global flyways (44–54%). Widespread, and in some cases accelerating, declines underscore the urgent conservation needs faced by many Arctic terrestrial bird species.     

Radiative forcing from household fuel burning in Asia

Household fuel use in developing countries, particularly as biomass and coal, is a major source of carbonaceous aerosols and other air pollutants affecting health and climate. Using state-of-the-art emission inventories, a global three-dimensional photochemical tracer/transport model of the troposphere, and a global radiative transfer model based on methods presented in the latest IPCC Assessment Report (2007-AR4), we estimate the radiative forcing (RF) attributable to household fuel combustion in Asia in terms of current global annual-mean RF and future global integrated RF for a one-year pulse of emissions (2000) over two time horizons (100 and 20 years). Despite the significant emissions of black carbon (BC) aerosols, these estimates indicate that shorter-lived (non-Kyoto) air pollutants from household fuel use in the region overall seem to exert a small net negative RF because of the strong influence of reflective aerosols. There are, however, major uncertainties in emission estimates for solid fuel burning, and about the sustainability of household fuel wood harvesting in Asia (the carbon neutrality of harvesting). In addition, there is still substantial uncertainty associated with the BC radiative forcing. As a result we find that the sign of the RF from household biomass burning in the region cannot be established. While recognizing the value of integrating climate change and air pollution policies, we are concerned that for a ‘Kyoto style’ post-Kyoto treaty (with global cap-and-trade and the Global Warming Potential as the metric) expanding the basket of components with a selection of short-lived species without also including the wider range of co-emitted species may lead to unintended consequences for global-scale climate. Additional measurement, modelling, and policy research is urgently needed to reduce the uncertainties so that the net impact on climate of emissions and mitigation measures in this sector can be accurately assessed.     

Climate change influence on POPs distribution and fate: a case study

Climate change has the potential of affecting the behaviour and distribution of organic pollutants, including POPs. Direct effects of climate change, like temperature increase, modification of wind and precipitation patterns, sea level rise, snow and ice cover, may be very effective in altering the partitioning of POPs among the environmental compartments. Other consequences of future climate scenarios may imply the alteration of degradation rates, soil properties (and hence land use), air-particle partitioning of chemicals and so forth. A case study is here presented to illustrate the major implications of climate change on the long term at the local scale. A dynamic multimedia model was applied to selected PCB and PCDD/F congeners to simulate the effects of climate change on their distribution and fluxes over the next 50 y in the Venice Lagoon (Italy). Different climate change scenarios were tested, finding noticeable variations in POPs concentration even for minor environmental changes. PCBs and PCDFs environmental concentrations may differ by a factor two in a moderate climate change scenario, compared to a situation with stable climate over the next 50 y. However, model results also suggest that if global warming may have the potential of reducing the environmental levels of these chemicals, it would probably enhance their mobility and hence their potential for long range atmospheric transport.     

A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930–1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.     

Do parks work? Impact of protected areas on land cover clearing

This paper evaluates the impact of protected areas on land-cover clearing, using a metadata analysis of information on 49 locations from 22 countries. Protected areas had significantly lower rates of clearing in comparison to their surroundings. In addition, protected areas had also significantly lowered rates of clearing within their boundary following initiation of protection. Thus, protected areas do appear to be effective at limiting overall land-cover clearing. There was some variation in the rates of clearing across regions, where most protected areas from North America and Europe showed positive rates of land-cover change, while protected areas from Asia had the highest rates of land-cover clearing. While most protected areas from North America and Europe involved a relatively smaller number of actors, a greater number of actors and drivers of clearing was implicated in protected areas from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, indicating the increased difficulties faced by park management in these regions. In contrast, country income levels and the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources category of protection did not appear to impact the likelihood of land-cover clearing in protected areas.     

The threat of climate change to freshwater pearl mussel populations

Changes in climate are occurring around the world and the effects on ecosystems will vary, depending on the extent and nature of these changes. In northern Europe, experts predict that annual rainfall will increase significantly, along with dramatic storm events and flooding in the next 50-100 years. Scotland is a stronghold of the endangered freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera (L.), and a number of populations may be threatened. For example, large floods have been shown to adversely affect mussels, and although these stochastic events were historically rare, they may now be occurring more often as a result of climate change. Populations may also be affected by a number of other factors, including predicted changes in temperature, sea level, habitat availability, host fish stocks and human activity. In this paper, we explain how climate change may impact M. margaritifera and discuss the general implications for the conservation management of this species.     

Socioeconomic outcomes of agricultural land use change in Southeast Asia

Agricultural land use is transforming rapidly in Southeast Asia, often supported by development policies aiming primarily at economic growth. However, the socioeconomic outcomes of these changes for smallholder farmers remain unclear. Here, we systematically review cases of agricultural land use change in Southeast Asia to assess their socioeconomic outcomes and potential trade-off and synergies in these outcomes. Of the 126 reviewed cases, we find mostly positive outcomes for income (SDG 1, 100 cases) and employment (SDG 8, 11 cases), while outcomes on health (SDG 3, 9 cases) were mixed, and outcomes for food security (SDG 2, 44 cases), gender equality (SDG 5, 13 cases), and economic equality (SDG 10, 14 cases) were mostly negative. Studies describing multiple outcomes show indications of synergies between income and food security, and between income and employment, but also potential trade-offs between income and economic equality. In addition, we find that economic land concessions result in multiple negative outcomes more often than other types of land governance regimes. The results provide evidence that economic gains from agricultural land use change often come at a cost of other dimensions of sustainable development.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01712-4.     

Agricultural and green infrastructures: the role of non-urbanised areas for eco-sustainable planning in a metropolitan region

Non-Urbanised Areas (NUAs) are part of agricultural and green infrastructures that provide ecosystem services. Their role is fundamental for the minimization of urban pollution and adaptation to climate change. Like all natural ecosystems, NUAs are endangered by urban sprawl. The regulation of sprawl is a key issue for land-use planning. We propose a land use suitability strategy model to orient Land Uses of NUAs, based on integration of Land Cover Analysis (LCA) and Fragmentation Analysis (FA). With LCA the percentage of evapotranspiring surface is defined for each land use. Dimensions and densities of NUAs patches are assessed in FA. The model has been developed with Geographical Information Systems, using an extensive set of geodatabases, including orthophotos, vectorial cartographies and field surveys. The case of the municipality of Mascalucia in Catania metropolitan area (Italy), characterized by a considerable urban sprawl, is presented.     

Global networking for assessment of impacts of global change on plant pests

Global change encompasses changes in atmospheric composition, climate and climate variability, and land cover and land use. The occurrence of these changes and their interactive effects on biological systems are worldwide; thus, an effective global change research and impact assessment program must be based on international and interdisciplinary research and communication. With this in mind, several collaborative research networks with a focus on global change have been established in the biological sciences. They include the Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) Core Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) which aims to predict the effects of global change on terrestrial ecosystems, including agriculture and production forestry. Because of the importance of plant pests (arthropods, microbial pathogens, weeds) as yield-reducing factors in agriculture and as early indicators of global change, GCTE initiated a network Activity on "Global Change Impacts on Pests, Diseases and Weeds" with the overall goal of developing a predictive capability for impact assessment and adaptation. The network's specific objectives, contributing research projects, initial results and future challenges are discussed.     

The diversity of gendered adaptation strategies to climate change of Indian farmers: A feminist intersectional approach

This paper examines climate change adaptation and gender issues through an application of a feminist intersectional approach. This approach permits the identification of diverse adaptation responses arising from the existence of multiple and fragmented dimensions of identity (including gender) that intersect with power relations to shape situation-specific interactions between farmers and ecosystems. Based on results from contrasting research cases in Bihar and Uttarakhand, India, this paper demonstrates, inter alia, that there are geographically determined gendered preferences and adoption strategies regarding adaptation options and that these are influenced by the socio-ecological context and institutional dynamics. Intersecting identities, such as caste, wealth, age and gender, influence decisions and reveal power dynamics and negotiation within the household and the community, as well as barriers to adaptation among groups. Overall, the findings suggest that a feminist intersectional approach does appear to be useful and worth further exploration in the context of climate change adaptation. In particular, future research could benefit from more emphasis on a nuanced analysis of the intra-gender differences that shape adaptive capacity to climate change.