Extrapolating phosphorus production to estimate resource reserves

Various indicators of resource scarcity and methods for extrapolating resource availability are examined for phosphorus. These include resource lifetime, and trends in resource price, ore grade and discovery rates, and Hubbert curve extrapolation. Several of these indicate increasing scarcity of phosphate resources. Calculated resource lifetime is subject to a number of caveats such as unanticipated future changes in resource discovery, mining and beneficiation technology, population growth or per-capita demand. Thus it should be used only as a rough planning index or as a relative indicator of potential scarcity. This paper examines the uncertainty in one method for estimating available resources from historical production data. The confidence intervals for the parameters and predictions of the Hubbert curves are computed as they relate to the amount of information available. These show that Hubbert-type extrapolations are not robust for predicting the ultimately recoverable reserves or year of peak production of phosphate rock. Previous successes of the Hubbert curve are for cases in which there exist alternative resources, which is not the situation for phosphate. It is suggested that data other than historical production, such as population growth, identified resources and economic factors, should be included in making such forecasts.     

“Green” economic development in China: quantile regression evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt

As China’s economy began transitioning from one focused on high-speed growth to one focusing on high-quality development, sustainable green development has become the main goal pursued by the government. This study empirically measures the marginal impact of per capita GDP, technological innovation level, industrial structure, openness, fiscal decentralization, and urbanization level on per capita wastewater discharge in 11 provinces (cities) along the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2008 to 2018 using a quantile model. The key findings were as follows: (1) factors such as the per capita GDP, industrial structure, foreign direct investment, and urbanization in the YREB significantly increased water resource pollution; (2) the quantile model regression results showed that the relationship between economic growth and ecological pollution followed the so-called environmental Kuznets inverted U-curve. Wastewater discharge per capita was low in areas with low per capita GDP, meaning that the ecological environment in these areas was more fragile and that the environmental pollution costs due to economic growth were therefore relatively much higher in these areas; (3) fiscal decentralization significantly reduced water resource pollution in relatively developed areas although the effects in the relatively developing areas were not significant; and (4) the effects of technological innovation on reducing water resource pollution in the YREB were positive but not very significant. The results also confirmed that traditional patterns of economic growth increased water pollution in the YREB. For this reason, the government needs to urgently improve policies—for example, upgrading economic structures, preventing over-urbanization, speeding up technological innovation, introducing environmentally friendly foreign investment, and providing more rewards to best practitioners of environmental governance—that is conducive to the achievement of green ecological development.

     

Observations of Arctic haze during polar flights from Alaska to Norway

Arctic haze observed during polar flights from Anchorage, Alaska, to Thule, Greenland, and Thule to Bodo, Norway, during March 1983, was widespread over the entire Arctic region flown. The distribution of this haze exhibited strong horizontal and vertical variability resulting from the synopticmeteorological situations encountered: e.g. the presence of fronts and haze transport zones. Condensation nuclei concentrations of about 500 cm⁻³ and aerosol scattering extinction values of about 4 × 10⁻⁵m⁻¹ were typical for Arctic haze layers. Intrusions of stratospheric air into the Arctic troposphere through tropopause folds were observed twice, suggesting that these events might occur quite frequently in the springtime Arctic atmosphere.     

Common property systems,migration, and coastal ecosystems

Common property systems are a critical institution mediating the relationship between population change and environmental outcomes, especially in coastal and marine ecosystems. Evidence from El Salvador; Goa, India; and the Solomon Islands demonstrates how the social structures and institutions stemming from patterns of human migration variably influence environmental out-comes through their effects on common property resource institutions. In each of the case studies, the demographic phenomenon is not population growth or a change in numbers, but an underlying process that affects population size and growth rates: i.e. migration and associated social relations that result from or cause more migration. The following 3 cases studies provide the respective historical and cultural context to show that there is a nonlinear link between population and environment, which when explored reveals the importance of understanding how individuals and communities are embedded in sets of social relations that must be considered when evaluating environmental policies or when determining the causes of environmental degradation.     

An exploratory study of total mercury levels in archaeological caribou hair from northwest Alaska

Over the past ten years, total mercury (THg) levels have been surveyed in Alaskan wildlife and fish as part of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment (AMAP). Beyond these studies there is little historical data on THg levels in important subsistence species for people in Alaska. A survey of THg in caribou hair from archaeological deposits would provide data to develop temporal trends for this region of the Arctic. Caribou hair from a Western Thule settlement beneath the Alaska native village of Deering (ca. AD 1150) show variability in hair THg values, with a mean level (86 ng/g) which is in the range that is observed in modern Rangifer sp. (caribou and reindeer). Hair from House 1 had a THg mean level of 99.6 ng/g and hair from House 2 had a THg mean of 64.2 ng/g. This is the earliest reported record of mercury in caribou associated with human subsistence activities in the western North American Arctic, and is a first step toward compilation of a needed database through which to measure and evaluate exposure to mercury by people who rely heavily on caribou as a food source. We hypothesize that similarity in mercury values in archaeological samples of caribou and in contemporary samples would give an additional perspective on human exposure to mercury through caribou harvest and consumption today. Since this hypothesis will be more useful if evaluated at a regional rather than global scale, further studies will be needed at different archaeological sites across Alaska to determine the generality of this observation in relation to geographic scale.     

Environmental quality vs economic growth in a developing economy: complements or conflicts

An increase in economic activities which leads to economic growth has been adduced as a possible factor for environmental degradation. While some other studies have argued that as economies keep growing, there are possibilities for resource redistribution which could engender environmental balance, thus engendering the argument on the conflicting-complementary position of the environment-growth nexus. In the light of this, this study uses previous activities between economic activities and the environment to determine the conflicting or complementary relationship that exists between economic growth and the environment. Also, using Nigeria as a case study, the design of environmental growth nexus to achieving sustainable development is assessed. Annual time series data between 1970 and 2014 were sourced from the World Development Indicators. Following the neoclassical perspective on ecological growth and the Kuznets inverted U-hypothesis on the environment-growth relations, stationarity test was performed, and the autoregressive distributed lag estimates were employed. From the study, it is seen that factors like rainfall that promotes environmental quality in the long run promote economic growth (per capita and GDP growth) in Nigeria. Similarly, factors like natural resource utilization, which depletes environmental quality, increases economic growth but reduces economic growth per capita; thus, with questions for development, the possibility of a complementary relationship for environmental quality and economic growth is spotted if the right policies are ensured. Also, the study found evidence of a growing conflicting relation between environmental quality (CO₂) and economic growth (per capita and GDP growth). Meanwhile, these conflicts to a great extent find expression in the Kuznets hypothesis; such that, if policies that promote income per capita reduces pollution and pursues eco-efficiency via economic growth are properly harnessed, there are the prospects of meeting up with the goals of environmental sustainability in developing economies.

     

Walrus history around the North Water: Human–animal relations in a long-term perspective

This article highlights the relationship between walruses and humans in and around the North Water polynya in a long-term perspective. The present study draws on a combination of biological, archaeological, archaeo-zoological, historical, and ethnographic sources covering the period from the 8th century ad to the late 20th century. The study demonstrates that the walrus was an important resource of meat, blubber, and other products throughout all the studied periods, if always supplemented by other kinds of game. It is suggested that walrus distribution and behaviour, as well as hunting strategies and technologies historically constituted a powerful component not only in forming human action and social life in the region but also in serving as an imaginative resource. It is further argued that the walrus and the walrus hunt still play a significant role in the present community living on the edge of the North Water, even if the hunt is increasingly circumscribed due to changing ice conditions.     

Imposex occurrence in marine whelks at a military facility in the high Arctic

Imposex was found in the Arctic whelk Buccinum finmarkianum at several marine stations off Thule Air Base, an US military facility in Northwest Greenland. This indicates a widespread contamination with the antifouling agents, tributyltin (TBT) or triphenyltin (TPhT) in the area, but such contamination was not supported by the organotin analyses in sediments, whelks and clams, which in general was below the analytical detection limit. Organotin concentrations above the detection limit were found only at one station close to a quay, where the highest frequency of imposex also occurred. This suggests that imposex in B. finmarkianum is a biomarker of TBT more sensitive than the detection limits, which the analytical chemistry could achieve in this study.     

Estimating the carbon footprint of household activities in Japan from the time-use perspective

The household sector is a major driver of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, most existing studies have only estimated households’ carbon footprint from their expenditures. Households’ daily activity time, a scarce resource that limits and determines their consumption behavior, has rarely been integrated into the estimation. Incorporating the daily time-use patterns should thus provide a more practical perspective for mitigation policies aiming at promoting sustainable household lifestyles. In this study, by linking household time-use data and expenditure data of Japan, the carbon footprint and the GHG intensity of time of 85 daily household activities constituting the 24 hours in a day are estimated. Compared to the maximal 20-activity disaggregation in existing studies, our detailed 85-category disaggregation of daily time enables unprecedented details on the discrepancies between the carbon footprint from daily activities, many of which have previous been treated as one activity. Results indicate significant carbon mitigation potential in activities with a high GHG intensity of time, such as cooking, bathing, and mobility-related and activities. Average daily GHG emissions were also found to be higher on weekends as time-use patterns shift from paid work to free-time activities, highlighting the need for mitigation strategies on a weekly scale.

     

Causes and consequences of a tropical forest gold rush in the Guiana Shield, South America

Statistical and spatial analyses of both historical time series and remotely sensed data show a link between the spatial distribution and growth of gold production across the Guiana Shield in northeast Amazonia. Results indicate that an exponential rise in production across an expanding area is primarily a delayed response to the 1971-1978 market flotation of international gold prices. The subsequent 10-fold (2-fold) average nominal (real) price increase has provided a compelling economic incentive to mass exploitation of lower-grade gold deposits. The ground-based and remotely sensed distributions of mining activity are strongly attached to these deposits that dominate the region's gold geology. The presence of these gold-bearing formations in conservation and sustainable timber zones has sparked social conflict and environmental degradation across the region. Left unmanaged, more than a quarter-million square-kilometer area of tropical forest zoned for protection and sustainable management could ultimately be compromised by the price-driven boom in gold mining through poorly integrated resource use planning, lack of reclamation effort, and control of illegal operations. Serious public health issues propagated through the unregulated mining environment further erode the financial benefits achieved through gold extraction. This study demonstrates in part how international economic policies successfully stabilizing more conspicuous centers of the global economy can have unintended but profound environmental and social impacts on remote commodity frontiers.     

Using a Set of Strategic Indicator Systems as a Decision-making Support Implement for Establishing a Recycling-oriented Society - A Taiwanese Case Study (16 pp)

Background Scope and Aims. To realize the vision of sustainable development (SD) originating from the ‘only one earth’ philosophy, and to integrate the conceptions of ecology and sustainability into the planning and decision-making criteria of urban growth management, the establishment of a recycling-oriented society (ROS) is essential. However, before the above intention can be achieved, it is indispensable to develop a system of strategic indicators for supporting a radical reformation of the urban development plan. Therefore, this study, based on the conception of the new urban development pattern ROS, attempted to carefully choose a sample city in Taiwan for launching a preliminary case study, and furthermore designed and proposed a concise and strategy-oriented assessment indicator system termed ROSAIS. ROSAIS, on the one hand, can act as a compass for understanding resource using efficiency and recycling status during city development and, on the other hand, can serve as an implement supporting decision-making for ROS construction.Methods According to the definition and spirit of ROS, the structure of ROSAIS should clearly represent the relationship between resources and environment in human activities. The eco-efficiency indicator system (EEIS) and environmental symbiosis indicator system (ESIS) can be considered two key sub-indicator systems, and are the necessary components of ROSAIS. EEIS chooses the dominant production sectors in urban economic activities to calculate their eco-efficiency (EE). Separately, for obtaining a consensus regarding the framework of ESIS, the questionnaire approaches and expert consultation, together with the research experience and foundation of current relevant studies and indicator systems, are applied when crucial resource and environmental issues and respective indicators are selected.Results and Discussion The calculation results of EEIS in this case study indicated that among the three dominant production activities (agricultural, fishery, and animal husbandry sector) the fishery sector has the highest EE, which indicates that the fishery activities and resources significantly influence the sustainability of the economic-environmental system of the sample city. Furthermore, according to a consensus achieved in ESIS, local green spaces, resource recovery, energy consumption pattern change, freshwater conservation and greenhouse effect abatement were considered as the five crucial issues influencing how the case study city can develop into an ES-city. The rate of local green spaces, resource recycling, freshwater conservation and the rate of reduction of nonrenewable energy use as well as carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were used to evaluate the above five issues.Conclusion This case study is unparalleled in Taiwan. Even in Japan, where ROS legislation has been implemented, this kind of study remains in the preliminary stages. Furthermore, when communicating the indicator results, it is essential to provide the context and countermeasures of the crucial issues that are faced. The two sub-indicator systems proposed in this case study could comply completely with the above-mentioned requirements. For example, the EEIS provides information for achieving a balance between environmental burden and economic benefits among dominant production sectors; the ESIS provides information for setting strategies for overcoming the crucial issues faced. Recommendation and Outlook This study recommends that urban planers should consider the construction of the corresponding strategic indicator system to be indispensable, and makes further use of the indicator results related to the environmental education of residents for identifying and promoting participation with ROS, and turning them into implements for supporting urban SD decision-making. Furthermore, a successful indicator system depends on data availability and quality. This study recommends that urban planers should pay considerable attention to constructing relevant data collection channels, databases and the data quality.     

Measurement of China’s green GDP and its dynamic variation based on industrial perspective

Over the previous two decades, Chinese economic development presented a rapid growth. However, with continuous industrialization and urbanization, China is confronted with great challenges of energy security and environmental issues. These problems are closely related to the current accounting method of economic growth to a certain extent. In order to meet these challenges, it is imperative to establish a green accounting system of economic growth and measure China’s green GDP and its changing trend based on the industrial perspective. Using the System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA) and industry data, this paper estimates China’s green GDP and green value added by industry sectors in 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2017. The results reveal the following: First, the ratio of green GDP to traditional GDP gradually increases from 89.85 to 95.83% during 2005–2017, which means that the negative externalities of economic growth of the resource and environment are gradually weakened. Second, the difference between traditional GDP and green GDP during 2005–2017 is about 6.96%, with the carbon emissions accounting for 70.71% of environmental impact. Third, due to more than 80% of the environmental impact coming from three sectors: manufacturing (49.99%), electricity industry (22.63%), and other services (11.37%), these three sectors should be key sectors for energy conservation and emission reduction; fourth, the green GDP of the mining, electricity industries, and manufacturing accounts for the lowest proportion of GDP, which means that the development patterns of these three industries in recent years should be adjusted and optimized step by step.

     

Economic Feasibility Study for Phosphorus Recovery Processes

Phosphorus recovery from wastewater has become a necessity for sustainable development because phosphorus is a non-renewable essential resource, and its discharge into the environment causes serious negative impacts. There are no economic incentives for the implementation of phosphorus recovery technologies because the selling price of rock phosphate is lower than phosphorus recovered from sewage. The methodologies used to determine the feasibility of such projects are usually focused on internal costs without considering environmental externalities. This article shows a methodology to assess the economic feasibility of wastewater phosphorus recovery projects that takes into account internal and external impacts. The shadow price of phosphorus is estimated using the directional distance function to measure the environmental benefits obtained by preventing the discharge of phosphorus into the environment. The economic feasibility analysis taking into account the environmental benefits shows that the phosphorus recovery is viable not only from sustainable development but also from an economic point of view.     

A Socio-Ecological Assessment Aiming at Improved Forest Resource Management and Sustainable Ecotourism Development in the Mangroves of Tanbi Wetland National Park, The Gambia, West Africa

Although mangroves dominated by Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle are extending over 6000 ha in the Tanbi Wetland National Park (TWNP) (The Gambia), their importance for local populations (both peri-urban and urban) is not well documented. For the first time, this study evaluates the different mangrove resources in and around Banjul (i.e., timber, non-timber, edible, and ethnomedicinal products) and their utilization patterns, including the possibility of ecotourism development. The questionnaire-based results have indicated that more than 80% of peri-urban population rely on mangroves for timber and non-timber products and consider them as very important for their livelihoods. However, at the same time, urban households demonstrate limited knowledge on mangrove species and their ecological/economic benefits. Among others, fishing (including the oyster—Crassostrea cf. gasar collection) and tourism are the major income-generating activities found in the TWNP. The age-old practices of agriculture in some parts of the TWNP are due to scarcity of land available for agriculture, increased family size, and alternative sources of income. The recent focus on ecotourism (i.e., boardwalk construction inside the mangroves near Banjul city) received a positive response from the local stakeholders (i.e., users, government, and non-government organizations), with their appropriate roles in sharing the revenue, rights, and responsibilities of this project. Though the guidelines for conservation and management of the TWNP seem to be compatible, the harmony between local people and sustainable resource utilization should be ascertained.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-012-0248-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Local hunting and the conservation of large mammals in India

Hunting by local communities is among the most widespread threats to Indian wildlife, yet, the understanding of its nature, extent, and impacts on wildlife has been poor. We surveyed 2 protected areas--Kudremukha and Nagara-holé--in southern India to assess the impacts of local hunting on large mammals. Detailed interviews with retired and active hunters were employed to describe hunting patterns. Impacts of hunting were assessed by comparing large-mammal abundance in adjacent sites differing in their vulnerability to hunting. In Kudremukha, at least 26 species of mammals were hunted, mostly with guns, at an estimated intensity of 216 hunter-days per month per village. In Nagaraholé, 6 of the 9 focal species of large mammals occurred at significantly lower densities at the heavily hunted site where enforcement capabilities were poorer. Our data underscore the importance of preservationist programs in the conservation of large mammals in a context of extensive local hunting.     

Environment contamination by mycotoxins and their occurrence in food and feed: Physiological aspects and economical approach

The contamination of food and feed by mycotoxins as toxic metabolites of fungi is a risk not only for consumers resulting in various embarrassment regarding health status and well-being, but also for producers, companies and export market on the ground of economic losses and ruined stability of economic trade. As it is given in historical evidence, the contamination of food by mycotoxins is a topic as old as a history of mankind, finding some evidence even in the ancient books and records. Nowadays, the mycotoxins are used in modern biotechnological laboratories and are considered an agent for targeting the specific cells (e.g., defected cells to eliminate them). However, this promising procedure is only the beginning. More concern is focused on mycotoxins as abiotic hazard agents. The dealing with them, systematic monitoring, and development of techniques for their elimination from agricultural commodities are worldwide issues concerning all countries. They can be found alone or in co-occurrence with other mycotoxins. Thus, this review aims to provide widened information regarding mycotoxins contamination in environment with the consequences on health of animals and humans. The inevitability for more data that correctly determine the risk points linked to mycotoxins occurrence and their specific reactions in the environment is demonstrated. This review includes various symptoms in animals and humans that result from mycotoxin exposure. For better understanding of mycotoxin's impact on animals, the sensitivities of various animal species to various mycotoxins are listed. Strategies for elimination and preventing the risks of mycotoxins contamination as well as economical approach are discussed. To complete the topic, some data from past as historical evidences are presented.     

Carbon monoxide emission rates from roasted whole bean and ground coffee

Carbon monoxide (CO) emitted from roasted coffee is a potential occupational respiratory exposure hazard to workers within the coffee industry. The current study objective was to estimate CO emission factors from commercially available roasted whole bean and ground coffee measured in loose form, not packaged, and to assess the utility of CO monitoring in nonventilated storage spaces such as within coffee roasting and packaging facilities, transport vessels, and cafés. Determinants affecting CO emissions from coffee were investigated, including form (whole bean vs. ground), roast level (light, medium, medium-dark, dark), and age (time since the package was opened). CO emission factors were estimated for roasted coffee samples from a variety of manufacturers purchased from local grocery stores and online. Emission tests were performed on 36 brands of coffee, some with more than one sample per brand and with various roast levels. Decaying source equations or smoothing functions were fitted to the CO concentration measurements. Maximum observed emission factors at the peak of the predicted concentration curve were adjusted by the time required to reach the maximum CO concentration and reported as emission factors (EF_buildup). Ground coffee had a significantly increased EF_buildup (P < 0.0001) compared with whole bean. Roast level did not significantly affect emissions for whole bean (P = 0.72) but did for ground (P < 0.001) coffee. For ground coffee, medium-dark and dark roasts had significantly higher emissions than medium and light roasts. Worst-case emission factors from commercially available whole bean and ground coffee measured in loose form, not packaged, showed that roasted coffee can rapidly emit CO. CO concentrations should be monitored in storage spaces in service and manufacturing facilities as well as transport vessels to ensure exposures do not exceed occupational exposure limits. Storage spaces may need to be ventilated to control CO concentrations to safe levels.

Implications: Emission rates of carbon monoxide (CO) from roasted coffee showed that unventilated or underventilated storage spaces should be monitored and ventilated, if necessary, to control CO concentrations to safe levels.     

Assessing the economic benefits and costs of conservation tillage

The economic benefits of the adoption of conservation tillage depend on site-specific factors, including soil characteristics, local climatic conditions, cropping patterns, and other attributes of the overall farming operation. While it is possible to draw some general inferences about components of economic returns and costs, a comprehensive assessment of the net private benefits from greater use of conservation tillage is not feasible.     

“控源-截污-资源化”模式处理面源污染

针对农村面源污染的时空范围广,不确定性大,成分、过程复杂,难以控制的特点,同时考虑废物资源化的问题,提出了"控污-截污-资源化(再利用)"CIR模式,包括三方面:通过改变不良用水习惯及耕作方式等从源头上控制污染排放;利用植物缓冲带、自然塘、沟渠湿地和表面流湿地等达到截污的目的;将畜禽养殖废水及生活黑水集中处理,产生沼气,变废为宝,于湿地内种植经济类水生植物,兼性塘内水产养殖,最终实现废物资源化(再利用)。经过将近一年半的运行测试,测试结果表明,整个模式不仅除污效率高,而且可产生良好的经济效益。     

Reconstructing historical trends of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon deposition in a remote area of Spain using herbarium moss material

Herbarium mosses from 1879–1881, 1973–1975 and 2006–2007 were used to investigate the historical changes of atmospheric deposition of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) at a remote site in Northern Spain. Natural abundance of nitrogen and carbon isotopes was also measured in order to assess the evolution of emissions from anthropogenic sources. Nitrogen and PAH concentrations as well as δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N ratios were significantly higher in 19th century samples compared to present century samples. Moreover, PAH distribution varied over the centuries, with the trend towards enrichment in light PAHs. The carbon, nitrogen and PAH concentrations measured in the mosses tally with the historical evolution of anthropogenic emissions in the area, mainly influenced by changes in economic activities, domestic heating and road traffic density. Mosses provided by herbaria seem to offer the possibility of studying long-term temporal evolution of atmospheric PAH deposition.