2008年雨雪冰冻灾害引发的决策气象服务探讨

本文对2008年低温雨雪冰冻灾害天气的决策气象服务工作进行了分析,总结得出此次决策服务工作的特点：1）服务及时、准确;2）服务产品类别多样、针对性强;3）灾害天气实时监测频次高、信息发布快;4）服务材料涉及面广。同时结合实际服务经历分析了在服务过程中成功的经验及存在的一些问题,指出决策气象服务工作还需要从以下几个方面加强和改进：1）加强应急管理,归口应急任务来源;2）建立和完善分灾种的重大气象灾害应急工作实施方案;3）加强部门联动防御机制建设;4）加强灾害评估,开展灾害预评估工作;5）建立精细化的决策服务系统;6）统一决策服务前端信息产品调阅端口,开发决策服务产品制作、发布平台。     

论重大突发事件应急决策气象服务

随着经济的快速增长和改革的逐渐深入,我国重大突发事件屡见不鲜,事件突发性强、社会关注度高,且部分事件受天气制约因素大,因此做好决策气象保障工作对重大突发事件管理起着非常关键的作用;同时,其服务产品领导阅读率较高,关注度和重要性不可小觑。因此立足于业务实践,对国家级气象部门的重大突发事件应急决策气象服务进行总结、分析和探讨,旨在不断提升决策气象服务产品的质量,展现气象行业的重要性,更好地服务政府和人民。     

环球

正美国:五角大楼表示全球变暖或将改变美军作战方式美国五角大楼近日称,全球变暖正在改变美军包括军事演习、武器系统、训练方式和军事设施等在内的一切训练和作战模式。美国国防部长查克·哈格尔在10月13日召开的高级别军事领导人会议上宣布,五角大楼将对其运作系统和军事设施进行全面调整,以应对气候变化带来的海平面上涨、干旱和其它自然灾害     

常州市区2013年1月份污染状况与原因探讨研究

2013年1月份,全国大面积爆发雾霾天气,根据常州市区1月份空气质量环境监测数据和气象资料,分析了造成市区1月份空气质量下降的主要原因;气象因素往往制约着大气污染物的稀释、扩散、输送和转化过程,进而影响大气污染物的分布及污染物浓度,降水、风速、温度、相对湿度、天气形势对大气污染时空分布均会造成影响;气象因素与大气污染的特征及其相互关系研究可以为有关部门制定防治大气污染、保护城市生态环境的决策提供科学、有效的依据,更好的提高人民生活质量。     

关于台风决策气象服务技术的总结与探究

为进一步提高和增强台风决策气象服务技术,科学准确的做好台风防灾减灾工作,本文在收集和整理了多个台风决策气象服务过程的基础上,分别就目前台风影响期间决策气象服务产品的开展情况和内容构建进行总结和分析,随后结合实际业务和未来发展方向,探讨性的提出关于台风决策气象服务产品开展部署和内容构成的细化性改进建议,旨在不断的提高台风的决策气象服务质量,为政府及相关部门应急决策管理提供科学的依据。     

河北省致人死亡的气象灾害时空分布与致灾因子研究

为在河北省防灾减灾救灾工作中有效避免人员伤亡,给气象灾害风险管理提供科学依据和决策支持,通过对1983—2014年气象灾害数据统计分析发现:河北省致人死亡的气象灾害种类有暴雨、雷电、气象地质灾害、冰雹、大风、大雾、龙卷、雪灾、风暴潮、高温热浪等10类,其中暴雨和雷电灾害最多;致人死亡气象灾害主要集中发生在夏季6、7、8三个月;山区发生致人死亡气象灾害事件的概率明显大于平原地区;全年都有高危险气象灾害发生。研究表明河北省致人死亡的气象灾害的致灾因子主要是暴雨和强对流天气。因而做好汛期的暴雨和强对流灾害性天气防范和应对非常重要,尤其是要做好太行山和燕山等山区等重点地区的气象灾害防御工作。     

浮尘天气对十堰空气质量的影响

以十堰市近几年来的气象统计和空气中总悬浮颗粒物的监测结果为例,探讨北方频发沙尘暴天气对十堰空气质量的影响及其影响的程度,认为沙尘暴天气对我省空气质量主要是以浮尘天气出现,总体影响不是很严重。本地扬尘、扬沙是影响十堰空气质量的主要污染物,而浮尘天气更加重了总悬浮颗粒物的污染程度。     

南京市天气类型与大气污染关系研究

基于2012～2017年南京市气象数据和空气污染数据,采用空间天气分类法(SSC)进行分类,并分析不同天气类型以及各项气象因子与污染物浓度的关系。结果表明,污染物在干燥晴朗的天气类型下的平均浓度较高;冬季气象条件对污染物浓度的影响最大;对于污染物SO2、NO2、PM10、PM2.5和CO,各气象因子对浓度的影响程度排序依次为气压、风速、温度、云量和露点;O3浓度受温度的影响最大。此外,对极端污染情形的研究表明,南京市在光照充足、晴朗干燥的天气类型下出现极端污染的风险较大,在温度5～10℃,露点温度0～5℃,气压1 020～1 025 hPa,云量0～2,风速2～3 m/s的天气条件下更容易发生极端污染。     

拉马德雷冷位相第三周期主要灾害链与湖南省天气气候灾害

本文阐述了拉马德雷冷位相第三周期主要灾害链对湖南天气气候灾害的影响,并对其因果关系进行尝试性探讨,以期增强气象服务的敏锐性,建立系统、科学、全面、联动的灾害应对机制。     

“西-宝”高速公路不良气象条件分析及对策

依据近40年的气象资料,对西宝高速公路沿线大雾、降雨、降雪、雷暴、低温、高温、沙尘等灾害性天气进行了分析,得出了沿线各种灾害性天气特征,并对其原因进行了简单分析。分析了这些灾害性天气对高速交通的影响程度,指出西宝高速公路气象服务的关键期,提出了避免不良天气造成交通事故发生的具体措施。     

Application of the analytic hierarchy process to select characterization and risk-based decision-making and management methods for hazardous waste sites

Environmental managers at U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) installations overseas are faced with the challenge of managing contaminated sites at these installations with little information on the extent of contamination or the risk posed by the site. In this regard, DoD managers overseas encounter a situation quite similar to the situation faced by decision makers in the U.S. who are managing brownfields. Innovative site characterization and risk-based decision-making methods, which are currently being developed for expeditious application at brownfield sites in the U.S., may also be appropriate for application at overseas DoD sites. In this paper, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used by DoD decision makers to evaluate and rank innovative site characterization technologies and risk-based decision-making and management methods, for use at installations in Korea. Results indicate that for sites with high potential risk the decision makers preferred site characterization technologies that produce data of high quality and a method that can be used to establish credible risk-based remediation goals. This study provides a framework for applying characterization technologies and risk management to poorly characterized contaminated sites in developing countries, where resources for remedial actions may be limited.     

缓蚀剂及其在飞机上的应用

飞机结构的腐蚀不但严重危害飞行安全,而且会造成巨大的经济损失。为了让缓蚀剂作为控制腐蚀产生及其扩展的一种有效手段,在飞机维护中得到更广泛的使用,总结了美国军方对缓蚀剂的分类及使用要求和范围,介绍了目前国内外军用和民用飞机中缓蚀剂的应用情况,分析了缓蚀剂在国内的应用前景,提出了开发自主知识产权缓蚀剂产品的建议。     

美国海军舰艇命名体系研究

美国海军舰艇命名体系由任命前缀、舰艇名称、分类代号、舷号4类要素构成,首先分析了每类要素对于命名体系的贡献,然后基于美国海军舰艇命名体系,以美国海军舰艇名册为数据源,通过要素提取、规则建立等步骤分析美国海军现役舰艇组成。经过分析,美国现役715艘舰艇分为战斗舰、辅助舰、战斗艇、支援艇、未在分类代号中定义等5大类67类型177级别,通过对比基于类型与级别规则、基于任命前缀规则的结果挖掘出美国海军现役舰艇组成规律。     

美国国会“电磁脉冲攻击对美国的威胁评估委员会”及其评估报告简析

为评估美国面临的电磁脉冲攻击威胁，并为美国电网等国家关键基础设施遭受敌国电磁脉冲攻击提出预防、保护和修复的建议，监督指导政府部门和军方开展电磁脉冲防御工作，美国国会从2001财年至2018财年，先后组建了四届电磁脉冲攻击威胁评估委员会。截至目前，该委员会已发布三次评估报告，其评估结论与建议为美国政府部门、研究机构等，社会各界开展各类评估、应对方案、提案提供了重要参考和依据。历届电磁脉冲攻击威胁评估委员会的成立，在美国电磁脉冲防御工作发展过程中都具有重要意义。简述了历届委员会的情况、评估要点和结论，重点分析了最新公布的2016财年委员会评估报告要点。     

论美国能源监管立法与能源管理体制

美国联邦政府从20世纪30年代开始制定能源监管立法。依据集中程度和立法主题,美国能源监管立法可分为电力管控、核能监管、能源安全、放松管制等4个发展时期。根据现行美国能源立法．美国能源管理体制分为联邦和州两个层次。在联邦层次,对能源进行监管的部门有美国能源部、联邦能源监管委员会、核能监管署、环境保护署、国会内政部等。其中,能源部主要负责能源发展和安全的大政方针的制定,联邦能源监管委员会的使命在于通过管制和市场的手段执行能源立法及能源政策。在州层次,一般由州能源委员会、州公用事业委员会以及州环保局负责州的能源监管。     

Climate change and the geography of weed damage: Analysis of U.S. maize systems suggests the potential for significant range transformations

By the end of the century, climate change projections under a “business-as-usual” emissions scenario suggest a globally averaged warming of 2.4–6.4 °C. If these forecasts are realized, cropping systems are likely to experience significant geographic range transformations among damaging endemic weed species and new vulnerabilities to exotic weed invasions. To anticipate these changes and to devise management strategies for proactively addressing them, it is necessary to characterize the environmental conditions that make specific weed species abundant, competitive, and therefore damaging the production of particular crops (i.e. defining the damage niche). In this study, U.S. maize is used as a model system to explore the implications of climate change on the distribution of damaging agricultural weeds. To accomplish this, we couple ensemble climate change projections of annual temperature and precipitation with survey data of troublesome weed species in maize. At the state scale, space-for-time substitution techniques are used to suggest the potential magnitude of change among damaging weed communities. To explore how the geography of damage for specific species may evolve over the next century, bioclimatic range rules were derived for two weed species that are pervasive in the Northern (Abutilon theophrasti Medicus, ABUTH) and Southern (Sorghum halepense (L.) Pers., SORHA) U.S. Results from both analyses suggest that the composition of damaging weed communities may be fundamentally altered by climate change. In some states, potential changes in the coming decades are commensurate to those possible by the end of the century. Regions such as the Northeastern U.S. may prove particularly vulnerable with emerging climate conditions favoring few weed species of present-day significance. In contrast, regions like the mid-South are likely to experience fewer shifts even with a similar magnitude in climate change. By the end of the century in the U.S. Corn Belt, cold-tolerant species like A. theophrasti may be of minor importance whereas S. halepense, a predominantly Southern U.S. weed species at present, may become common and damaging to maize production with its damage niche advancing 200–600 km north of its present-day distribution.     

Reconciling the supply of and demand for carbon cycle science in the U.S. agricultural sector

When asking the question, “How can institutions design science policies for the benefit of decision makers?” Sarewitz and Pielke [Sarewitz, D., Pielke Jr., R.A., this issue. The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and demand for science. Environ. Sci. Policy 10] posit the idea of “reconciling supply and demand of science” as a conceptual tool for assessment of science programs. We apply the concept to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) carbon cycle science program. By evaluating the information needs of decision makers, or the “demand”, along with the supply of information by the USDA, we can ascertain where matches between supply and demand exist, and where science policies might miss opportunities. We report the results of contextual mapping and of interviews with scientists at the USDA to evaluate the production and use of current agricultural global change research, which has the stated goal of providing “optimal benefit” to decision makers on all levels. We conclude that the USDA possesses formal and informal mechanisms by which scientists evaluate the needs of users, ranging from individual producers to Congress and the President. National-level demands for carbon cycle science evolve as national and international policies are explored. Current carbon cycle science is largely derived from those discussions and thus anticipates the information needs of producers. However, without firm agricultural carbon policies, such information is currently unimportant to producers.     

Risk/benefit analysis of prohibition of the mercury electrode process in caustic soda production

This study attempts a risk-benefit analysis of the Japanese government decision of the prohibition of the mercury electrode process used for production of caustic soda in 1973. The reduction in human health risk and the costs incurred due to the decision are evaluated, on the basis of which an implicit value of its benefit-risk (BRR) ratio is estimated. Human health risk is evaluated in terms of loss of life expectancy, which enables us to quantify and compare human health risks, irrespective of cancer or noncancer toxic risks. The value of BRR of the decision is calculated to be 570 million yen, approximately U.S. $5.7 million, per life-year saved. Comparing the BRR values of a couple of other policies enacted or proposed in Japan, ranging from 24 to 45 million yen per life-year saved, its value is very high. This result implies that the decision in study is not cost-effective.     

美国国家海洋自然保护区监测及其对我国的启示

着重介绍了美国国家海洋自然保护区的监测目标、理论基础、监测内容。监测是掌握海洋自然保护区状况与发展趋势的重要手段,是海洋自然保护区建设与管理的重要工作内容。美国国家海洋自然保护区的保护目的和所保护的资源类型同我国的海洋自然保护区相似。且监测水平与管理机制处于世界领先水平。了解研究美国的先进经验,对促进我国海洋自然保护区的监测工作具有很好的借鉴作用。