Insight into the safety distance of ground and underground installations in typical petrochemical plants

Petrochemical plants are continuously turning into large-size corporations, the installations of facilities show a developing trend from ground to underground because of the difference in land using rate. In this regard, the safety distance of petrochemical equipment buried in both ground and underground cases were investigated based on risk assessment. As a case study, gasoline tank and LPG tank set on the ground and underground are singled out to compare the risks involved. The research showed that the setting case of installation had a great influence on safety distance. Two cases have 80% reduction of equivalent safety distance compared with the rest of the cases. It was found that when the gasoline storage tank was placed underground alone, the PLL value decreased by 36.7%. Only LPG tank was placed underground, and the PLL decreased by 6.33%, and the gasoline and LPG storage tanks were placed underground simultaneously, the PLL value declined by 42.3%. Thus, the layout of plants could be further optimized, which can greatly improve the performances of land use efficiency and safety. In addition, this paper, the selection of embedding methods and the sensitivity of underground case to overpressure was resumed from two aspects: soil properties and burial depth. For the soil properties, it was found that the water saturated sandy soil with high air content and the low density unsaturated sandy soil had better effects on weakening overpressure. Such properties are particularly beneficial to reducing the occurrence rate of accidents. In terms of burial depth, it can be observed that as the burial depth was changed from 0.5m to 1.1m, the value of overpressure has dropped dramatically. When the burial depth was 2m, the damage to personnel and buildings has been greatly reduced beyond 2m from the explosion center.     

Association analysis of accident factors in petrochemical storage tank farms

In order to identify and clarify the association between the factors leading to accidents in a petrochemical tank area, this study analyzes investigation reports of 212 petrochemical tank farm accidents and combines this with the “association rule” mining and science related to complex networks. The main risk factors are determined and a risk factor data set is constructed; 75 association rules are extracted from the factor data set based on the Apriori algorithm. Then the obtained association rules are used to construct an accident factors network of the petrochemical storage tank area, and the topology characteristics of the network are further analyzed to reveal the importance of factors. Factors with large node degree, betweenness, and clustering coefficients are obtained, such as “violation of operating regulations”, “high concentration of flammable gas in the air”, “lack of experience and professional skills”, etc. These factors play an important role in the formation and development of accidents. The results also show that the accident cause network of the petrochemical storage tank area has a small average shortest path length and a large cluster coefficient, indicating a relatively close connection between the accident factors. The contributions of this study is not only extracting the hidden relationships among contributory factors to tank farm accidents using association analysis, but also revealing which factors are more important for the tank farm safety through the complex network.     

石油化工储罐特性重要度的确定及应用研究

在计算石油化工储罐火灾扑救所需的消防力量时,引入储罐特性重要度的概念。通过分析影响石油化工储罐特性重要度的各个因素以及因素间的相互联系,构建了较合理的储罐特性重要度评价指标体系,并利用层次分析和多级模糊评价相结合的方法,确定储罐特性重要度系数。应用研究表明,在计算石油化工储罐火灾所需消防资源时,应考虑到储罐特性重要度对资源需求的影响。储罐特性重要度越大,对消防资源的需求就越大,在储罐发生火灾时调集的消防力量就越多。储罐特性重要度的确定为消防指挥员在扑救石油化工储罐火灾时调集合理的消防力量,提供了科学的决策依据。     

城市道路的人员疏散风险评价研究

为量化评价城市道路在人员疏散过程中存在的风险,以支持城市道路规划,以及有效开展应急疏散管理,提出1种城市道路的人员疏散风险评价方法.该方法设定多种影响因素,构建道路疏散风险评价函数,并结合临界簇模型,运用实时交通态势数据与动态人口数据,评估不同时间的道路疏散风险.以上海市外环线内区域为研究区,开展道路疏散风险综合评价与...     

基于视频监控系统的突发灾害应急评估技术可行性研究

突发灾害救援工作的展开依赖于快速有效的应急损失评估,其技术过程是指快速获取因突发灾害而造成的各类工程结构物的破坏和人员伤亡等灾害现场信息。为此,提出利用广泛布设于城市道路、公共场所、构（建）筑物内部的视频监控设备所捕捉到的影像资料,在技术上通过计算机图像处理技术,结合灾害快速评估技术和地理信息系统（GIS）,对灾害现场以构（建）筑物为代表的工程设施进行监测,提供实时的数据处理结果和现场灾害快速评估信息,从而在最大程度上避免突发灾害救援指挥的无序性,提高应急工作效率。     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的石化装置火灾事故动态风险分析

为揭示石油炼化装置事故风险动态特性和事故情景演变路径,在对石化装置进行风险因素分析的基础上构建石化装置火灾事故故障树,基于贝叶斯网络非常规突发事故的演变过程,构建情景演变下的动态贝叶斯网络模型,在综合考虑应急措施的基础上,利用MATLAB软件和联合概率公式计算出各种事故场景的状态概率.以丙烯精馏装置火灾事故为例,结果表...     

基于多事故模式的有毒易燃气体道路运输泄漏事故应急疏散范围研究

为确定有毒易燃气体道路运输泄漏事故应急救援的应急疏散范围,降低人员伤亡程度,在对泄漏事故及后续次生灾害演化模式分析的基础上,提出了基于多事故模式的应急疏散范围综合确定方法,分析了多事故模式后果预测的相关理论,明确了应急疏散区域综合确定的步骤和流程。以道路运输氨气泄漏事故为例,采用MATLAB软件对不同时间下的中毒和蒸气云爆炸事故伤害范围分别进行了数值模拟研究。结果表明：相较于单一事故模式,基于多事故模式的应急疏散范围综合确定方法更为科学、合理和准确,能为有毒易燃气体道路运输泄漏事故的应急疏散提供更加精确和可靠的决策依据。     

Estimation of the real number of road casualties in Europe

Within this research, the police under-reporting of non-fatal road accident casualties in eight European countries was examined by means of a common methodology applied in each country. Eight national studies were carried out using the common methodology, and this allowed to prepare valid estimates of the level of under-reporting of non-fatal road casualties in Europe in a disaggregate form (namely by country, road user type and injury severity). This provided an insight into the variation of road casualty under-reporting in Europe. Moreover, a new common definition for road casualty severity was proposed that makes use of internationally recognised medical standards. This was established by examining two different injury severity standards, the casualty’s length of stay in hospital and the casualty’s maximum AIS score. The under-reporting coefficients developed within this research were applied to estimate the real number of non-fatal serious road accident casualties, according to the new proposed common definition. For almost all countries, the actual number of serious casualties according to the new proposed definition was found lower than the number of police-recorded serious casualties. With the newly estimated number of serious casualties, the values of the ratio of serious casualties to fatalities are much less widespread across countries. These remaining differences can thus be attributed to real differences in road safety between the countries, after having controlled for the different under-reporting levels and injury severity definitions.     

Pedestrian Casualties and Fatalities in Road Traffic Crashes in a South African Municipality

A study of the pedestrian casualties and fatalities in road traffic crashes in Durban, a South African municipality, for 1999 was undertaken using official road traffic accident data. The pedestrians age 25 to 44, although only 23.9% of the population, were 39.3% of the casualties and 48.2% of the fatalities. The most vulnerable pedestrians were those 30 to 34 years old who were 6.1% of the population, 11.7% of the casualties, and 14.6% of the fatalities; 35- to 39-year-olds who were 6% of the population, 8.8% of the casualties, and 13.5% of the fatalities; and the 40- to 44-year-olds who were 4.9% of the population, 7.5% of the casualties, and 10.2% of the fatalities. Cars were involved in 52% of the vehicle-pedestrian crashes but had fewer crashes than minibuses and buses, and fewer casualties and fatalities than minibuses, buses, and motorcycles. Minibuses recorded the most crashes at 1,037 per 100 million km, the highest casualty rate of 268 per 100 million km, and highest fatality rate of 17 per 100 million km. Buses, which were involved in 3% of the vehicle-pedestrian crashes, had 951 crashes per 100 million km, 182 casualties per 100 million km, and 11 fatalities per 100 million km. Motorcycles were involved in 1% of the vehicle-pedestrian crashes and had per 100 million km 508 crashes, 192 casualties, and 7 fatalities. There was no statistically significant difference in the monthly distribution of the road traffic crashes.     

3D可视化石化装置安全管理系统的开发

本文介绍了3D可视化石化装置安全管理系统构成、功能和实验途径，该系统将三维激光扫描和GIS技术运用于石化行业，通过数据处理建立石化装置测绘级精度、全尺寸、全真实体的三维数字模型，并通过添加GIS信息和设备属性信息，实现石化装置5D可视化管理、分层管理、设备检维修和施工改造模拟、事故影响范围及应急救援最佳路径模拟、工作人员仿真培训等安全管理模块，为石化企业设备管理提供了新的技术平台。     

Prevalence of alcohol among nonfatally injured road accident casualties in two level III trauma centers in northern Ghana

Background: Alcohol use is pervasive among motorists on the road in Ghana; however, we do not know the extent to which this behavior is implicated in road accidents in this country.

Objectives: The main objective of this research was to establish the prevalence of alcohol in the blood of nonfatally injured casualties in the emergency departments (EDs) in northern Ghana.

Method: Participants were injured road traffic crash victims, namely, pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and drivers seeking treatment at an ED. The study sites were 2 level III trauma centers located in Wa and Bolgatanga. Participants were screened for alcohol followed by breath tests for positive participants using breathalyzers.

Results: Two hundred and sixty-two accident victims visited EDs, 58% of whom were in Wa. Among the victims, 41% were hospitalized and 57% experienced slight injuries. The vast majority (76%) of the casualties were motorcyclists, 13% were pedestrians, 8% were cyclists, and 2% were drivers. Casualties who had detectable alcohol in their blood were predominantly vulnerable road users. In all, 34% of participants had detectable blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) and the mean BAC for all casualties who tested positive and could give definitive BACs was 0.2265 (226 mg/dl). The prevalence of alcohol use was 53% among cyclists, 34% among motorcyclists, 21% among pedestrians, and 17% among drivers. Male casualties were more likely to test positive for alcohol than females. In addition, the prevalence of alcohol was significantly higher among injured casualties in Bolgatanga compared to Wa.

Conclusion: There was a high prevalence of alcohol use among nonfatally injured casualties in northern Ghana and injury severity increased with BAC. AUDIT screening in the hospital, alcohol consumption guideline, road safety education with an emphasis on minimizing or eliminating alcohol consumption, and enhanced enforcement of the BAC limit among motorists are recommended.     

Smoke control of a fire in a tunnel with vertical shaft

The aim of this research is to find the optimum smoke extraction rate through the ventilation shaft in case of a fire in a long road tunnel. Furthermore, it is also investigated whether the current emergency ventilation design practice using a vertical shaft can limit the smoke propagation from a fully loaded gasoline tank lorry fire. For this research, scaled model experiments were carried out using a 20 m- long model tunnel with a vertical shaft. A CFD modeling tool was also extensively utilized to investigate the extremely dangerous situation in which a fully loaded gasoline tank lorry is burning inside a long road tunnel.     

Pedestrian casualties and fatalities in road traffic crashes in a South African municipality

A study of the pedestrian casualties and fatalities in road traffic crashes in Durban, a South African municipality, for 1999 was undertaken using official road traffic accident data. The pedestrians age 25 to 44, although only 23.9% of the population, were 39.3% of the casualties and 48.2% of the fatalities. The most vulnerable pedestrians were those 30 to 34 years old who were 6.1% of the population, 11.7% of the casualties, and 14.6% of the fatalities; 35- to 39-year-olds who were 6% of the population, 8.8% of the casualties, and 13.5% of the fatalities; and the 40- to 44-year-olds who were 4.9% of the population, 7.5% of the casualties, and 10.2% of the fatalities. Cars were involved in 52% of the vehicle-pedestrian crashes but had fewer crashes than minibuses and buses, and fewer casualties and fatalities than minibuses, buses, and motorcycles. Minibuses recorded the most crashes at 1,037 per 100 million km, the highest casualty rate of 268 per 100 million km, and highest fatality rate of 17 per 100 million km. Buses, which were involved in 3% of the vehicle-pedestrian crashes, had 951 crashes per 100 million km, 182 casualties per 100 million km, and 11 fatalities per 100 million km. Motorcycles were involved in 1% of the vehicle-pedestrian crashes and had per 100 million km 508 crashes, 192 casualties, and 7 fatalities. There was no statistically significant difference in the monthly distribution of the road traffic crashes.     

危险品事故泄漏模糊路网应急资源优化研究

当危险品大规模泄漏事故发生后,应急物资快速配送对于减轻危险品对人员伤害和挽救损失有重要意义。首先从损毁路网修复和救援物资2个方面建立双层模型,从有限物资分配修复损毁路网和救援上进行优化分配,并通过路径优化时间最短分配物资,使应急救援系统的损失最小化。利用宽容分层的方法对模型进行求解,求解最优的物资分配和运输路径方案。最后利用算例,对模型和算法进行检验,找出需要修复受损路网中关键路段。     

Application of CFD model in an LPG tank explosion accident

In this research, a 3D tank farm model of a petrochemical plant was built in order to analyze an LPG tank explosion accident. Furthermore, the Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) algorithm was also applied to reconstruct the scenario of the accident. With its 3D dynamic abilities, the CFD simulation results can be used to facilitate the understanding of the spatial and transient distribution of different hazardous physical variables, which cannot be observed from the traditional methods.After the maximum physical variables of overpressure, pressure-impulse, and thermal radiation temperature were calculated, the results were adopted to estimate the corresponding 3D individual risk value. With the aid of the CFD simulation and the analysis method of maximum physical variable, the researchers can use the simulation results to scrutinize the possible causes and consequences of a chemical accident.     

危险品泄漏事故后动态路网应急疏散研究

在建立以最短车辆总疏散时间为目标的应急车辆疏散模型过程中,考虑路网上的车流是时变的,以动态交通流分配理论对应急车辆流进行优化分配。基于计算的复杂性和粒子群算法(PSO)的优点,采用PSO对模型进行求解。算例试验结果表明,优化后的方案能够减轻整个疏散车辆的拥堵程度,为应急管理部门决策提供理论支持。     

城市高层建筑火灾消防及安全逃生策略研究

针对当前城市高层建筑消防的严峻形势及火灾威胁安全逃生的现实问题,从高层建筑的特点分析其火灾的特点,即火势猛、蔓延快、疏散难、伤亡重、结构耐火性差、灭火救援难等,进而提出需从导致高层建筑火灾的设计、管理、装修等环节处着手,从源头上预防和杜绝火灾,将灾害后果降到最低程度。特别强调,若有人身处高层建筑火灾威胁之中,面对突如其来的灾难应立足自救互救,走出误区,采取明智的安全逃生策略,有效地降低人员的伤亡。     

国外乡村公路交通安全水平

收集和整理了美国、加拿大、英国、澳大利亚等国关于乡村公路交通安全的管理和研究成果;归纳国外乡村公路的定义;分析乡村公路在交通事故数量、伤亡人数、死伤率等方面的基本情况。笔者通过对国外乡村公路交通安全水平研究,有如下3个结论:第一,目前还没有一个被普遍接受的乡村公路的定义;第二,乡村公路的交通事故后果比城市道路严重得多;第三,乡村公路交通安全水平提高的速度比城市道路慢;吸取国外乡村公路交通安全管理经验,为我国农村公路交通安全水平的改善提供有益的借鉴。     

基于路网脆弱性的紧急情况下交通疏散诱导模型

为提高紧急情况下交通疏散速度,实现对疏散交通流的诱导,需要建立紧急情况下的交通流诱导模型。根据紧急情况下路网特性,提出路网脆弱性指标,并将其引入交通流诱导模型,对常态交通流诱导模型进行改进,得到基于路网脆弱性的紧急情况下交通疏散诱导模型,并用实测数据求解模型参数。分别用常态交通流诱导模型和文中的改进模型进行实例计算,结果表明,经过改进模型诱导之后,高流量和低流量路段相对减少,交通流在路网中的分布更均衡、达到系统最优的效果。对紧急情况下的交通流进行有效诱导,可提高疏散路网利用效率,加快应急交通疏散。