基于Apriori算法的易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故关键致险因素的挖掘

导致易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故的因素繁多、关系复杂,挖掘关键致险因素是减少管理成本、提高防控效率的关键。研究了200例事故等级为较大事故以上的易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故的原因,采用事故树分析法建立易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故树,并运用频度统计法遴选出致险因素;在此基础上,建立基于Apriori算法的关联规则模型进行数据挖掘,共得到14个关键致险因素。通过对关键致险因素与易燃易爆危险化学品储运火灾爆炸事故之间关联规则的分析表明,关键致险因素与事故之间存在强关联规则,单一关键致险因素或其组合的存在必将导致事故的发生,为实现危险化学品储运精准化安全管理提供参考。     

某储罐区火灾多米诺效应场景推演

化工园区中危险源众多,一旦发生事故很容易在整个园区内蔓延和发展.针对化工园区内储罐密集,容易引发连锁反应导致事故扩大的特点,利用FDS软件对储罐火灾场景进行数值模拟,根据储罐所受热辐射确定化工园区内储罐火灾最可能的事故发生序列,并引入基于设备失效前时间的机械设备故障概率模型对罐区内单个储罐的火灾风险进行研究,得到储罐区...     

Scenario deduction of Natech accident based on dynamic Bayesian network: A case study of landslide accident in a liquor storage tank area in Guizhou Province,China

Industrial technical accidents caused by natural disasters are defined as Natech accidents, such as earthquakes and landslides, which can cause tremendous damage to industrial storage tanks, and lead to accidental leakage and even serious fire and explosion accidents. In this study, a landslide-induced storage tank accident model under earthquake disasters was proposed, and the relationship between landslide mass impact and target impact resistance was taken into account. Also, tank failure and the formation of the pool fire were considered to be the consequences of the Natech accident. Through scenario deduction, the dynamic process of landslide Natech was transformed qualitatively into a disaster chain network diagram composed of a scenario state, a disaster-causing factor and emergency management. The Bayesian network was used to learn and deduce the parameters of the network diagram, and in this process, the prior probability and conditional probability of nodes were obtained primarily by Monte Carlo simulation, and by an improved expert scoring method based on the fuzzy set theory. Through visualization software, the sensitivity analysis of landslide Natech was achieved. Finally, a case study of a liquor storage tank area in Guizhou Province, China was carried out, and the results show that a large amount of hazardous material leakage caused by buckling is key to the formation of pool fire accidents, and several prevention measures for earthquake-induced landslide Natech was proposed according to the sensitivity analysis.     

基于火灾场景的大型浮顶储罐区全过程风险防范体系研究

针对大型浮顶罐区火灾事故风险特征,通过对火灾场景辨识及其火灾风险影响因素分析,结合预防初期火灾场景风险要素和消防系统有效性,提出了罐区火灾事故现实风险的评估框架及确定方法。在此基础上,构建了基于火灾场景的全过程风险防范体系,包括库区评估规划、罐体本质安全化设计、库区火灾预防、罐区火灾扑救、园区火灾事故管理等5个方面,并给出相应的对策措施。大型浮顶罐区全过程火灾风险防范是一个持续改进的结构化过程风险管理体系,有助于实现罐区火灾风险的过程安全管理,进而提高仓储型园区的整体消防安全保障能力和风险防控水平。     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的石化装置火灾事故动态风险分析

为揭示石油炼化装置事故风险动态特性和事故情景演变路径,在对石化装置进行风险因素分析的基础上构建石化装置火灾事故故障树,基于贝叶斯网络非常规突发事故的演变过程,构建情景演变下的动态贝叶斯网络模型,在综合考虑应急措施的基础上,利用MATLAB软件和联合概率公式计算出各种事故场景的状态概率.以丙烯精馏装置火灾事故为例,结果表...     

基于APRIORI-TAN的交通事故伤害分析与预测*

为探究道路交通事故因素和事故伤害的相关性,以2 467起涉及人员伤亡的交通事故为数据集,运用Apriori算法分别挖掘事故伤害关联规则,并结合社会网络分析的可视化和核心-边缘分析构建受伤事故和死亡事故的关联规则网络。结果表明:事故伤害程度与事故时间、道路条件和交通环境等因素关系紧密,尤其死亡事故与碰撞固定物、人行横道事故、高速公路、高速道路、非市区、酒驾和超速存在高相关性。基于树型贝叶斯网络（TAN）构建事故伤害程度的预测模型,预测结果准确率可达87.56%。     

基于关联规则的跑道着陆事件演化网络构建研究*

为了提高航空运输系统安全性,针对航空器着陆过程中冲偏出和重着陆事件的关联机理开展研究。以84起跑道着陆事故调查报告为样本,利用Python分词工具提取风险因素并建立跑道着陆事件数据集,应用Apriori算法挖掘风险因素间关联规则,基于复杂网络理论构建该类事件演化网络,分析社团结构和拓扑特征。研究结果表明:本文所构建的网络密度为0.143,网络较为紧密,风险因素间强关联;网络社团结构显著,符合飞行操纵、运行状态、运行环境、不利条件的分类特点;网络关键节点“航线训练”、“接地速度大”综合值分别为0.599 8、0.589 0。研究结果可为飞行安全研究提供新思路。     

油罐区泄漏及火灾危险危害评价

对某大型油罐区进行泄漏及火灾的危险危害评价.采用毒性物质泄漏扩散模型模拟油罐的泄漏事故,得出了泄漏介质在罐区附近的等质量浓度分布曲线;采用池火火焰与辐射强度模型,计算油罐、输油管道、汽车装油栈台等发生池火灾时的热辐射强度,并结合不同辐射强度值对人和设备的影响程度,给出了池火灾的影响范围.     

氯乙烯储罐注水堵漏腐蚀风险的预测方法研究*

为更好地解决氯乙烯储罐注水堵漏可能导致储罐发生腐蚀泄漏的实际问题,提出1种基于ASPEN和神经网络的氯乙烯储罐注水堵漏腐蚀风险的预测方法。运用ASPEN流程模拟软件,对氯乙烯储罐注水堵漏工艺进行模拟,得到不同泄漏孔径下注水速率和HCl浓度的关系;以HCl浓度作为导致腐蚀的主要影响因素,对不同种钢材进行挂片腐蚀实验;结合神经网络分析,得出HCl浓度与腐蚀速率之间的拟合式,预测储罐腐蚀情况。结果表明:神经网络预测结果平均相对误差7.63%,随注水速率的提高,HCl浓度变化呈下降趋势,腐蚀速率变化呈下降趋势;在等效泄漏孔径24 mm、注水速率0.87 m/s时,Q345R腐蚀速率13.93 mm/a,20#腐蚀速率10.48 mm/a,201不锈钢腐蚀速率7.09 mm/a为3者中最低,但此工况下,201不锈钢有点蚀倾向,储罐易发生穿孔,故201不锈钢不宜用作氯乙烯储罐母材,并提出对《石油化工企业设计防火标准(2018年版)》的修订建议。     

On the application of the window of opportunity and complex network to risk analysis of process plants operations during a pandemic

To quantify the pandemic specific impact with respect to the risk related to the chemical industry, a novel risk analysis method is proposed. The method includes three parts. Firstly, the two types of “window of opportunity” (WO) theory is proposed to divide an accident life cycle into two parts. Then, a qualitative risk analysis is conducted based on WO theory to determine possible risk factors, evolution paths and consequences. The third part is a quantitative risk analysis based on a complex network model, integrating two types of WO. The Fuzzy set theory is introduced to calculate the failure probabilities of risk factors and the concept of risk entropy is used to represent the uncertainty. Then the Dijkstra algorithm is used to calculate the shortest path and the corresponding probability of the accident. The proposed method is applied to the SCR denitrition liquid ammonia storage and transportation system. The results show that it is a comprehensive method of quantitative risk analysis and it is applicable to risk analysis during the pandemic.     

大型原油储罐火灾多米诺效应概率计算模型及应用

随着油品储罐区规模的不断扩大,近年来多储罐火灾事故呈上升趋势。现有的储罐防火间距是在以往事故经验的基础上设定的,通过罐组内的火灾多米诺效应概率计算,可从风险的角度为罐组内储罐防火间距的设定提供理论依据。通过综合考虑火灾环境下受辐射储罐失效时间和着火储罐火灾得到控制时间,确定了罐组内火灾多米诺效应的判定原则,并在火灾得到控制时间模型和储罐失效时间模型的基础上建立了火灾多米诺效应概率计算模型。以2万立外浮顶原油储罐为例进行模拟计算,得出在现行标准给出的防火间距下,发生罐组火灾多米诺效应的概率为3.94×10-8/a-1,属于可接受风险,为罐组内储罐的合理布局提供了理论依据。     

A study of maintenance-related major accident cases in the 21st century

This paper is based on a review of 183 detailed, major accident investigation and analysis reports related to the handling, processing and storage of hydrocarbons and hazardous chemicals over a decade from 2000 to 2011. The reports cover technical, human and organizational factors. In this paper, the Work and Accident Process (WAP) classification scheme is applied to the accident reports with the intention of investigating to what extent maintenance has been a cause of major accidents and what maintenance-related causes have been the most frequent.The main objectives are: (1) to present more current overall statistics of maintenance-related major accidents, (2) to investigate the trend of maintenance-related major accidents over time, and (3) to investigate which maintenance-related major accident causes are the most frequent, requiring the most attention in the drive for improvement.The paper presents statistical analysis and interpretation of maintenance-related major accidents’ moving averages as well as data related to the types of facility, hazardous substances, major accidents and causes. This is based on a thorough review of accident investigation reports.It is found that out of 183 major accidents in the US and Europe, maintenance was linked to 80 (44%) and that the accident trend is decreasing. The results also show that “lack of barrier maintenance” (50%), “deficient design, organization and resource management” (85%) and “deficient planning/scheduling/fault diagnosis” (69%) are the most frequent causes in terms of the active accident process, the latent accident process and the work process respectively.     

大型油气(危化品)储罐区安全监控预警系统设计

大型石油、天然气、成品油,易燃易爆,储罐群区危险物质存量大,极易引起灾难性的事故发生。如何在经济高速发展过程中保证安全,是安全生产急需解决的技术难题。本文系统设计面向大型油气(危化品)储罐区安全管理工作的实际需要,兼顾罐区安全管理、实时监控预警及应急救援等多方面的工作,设计一套技术先进、运行成熟、操作简单、扩展性好、容易维护和使用方便的油品储罐区安全监控预警系统,实现大型油气储罐区安全管控一体化,确保大型油气储罐的生产安全和社会安全发展。     

基于VR技术的大型储罐火灾爆炸仿真软件设计

为了研究大型储罐事故后果的严重性，针对大型储罐火灾爆炸试验难以实施的情况，以虚拟现实技术为研究手段，重现大型储罐火灾和爆炸事故过程；通过对储罐火灾和爆炸事故进行理论分析，优选出大型储罐火灾爆炸事故后果数学模型；基于某商业原油储备库布置，利用3Ds Max软件对库区进行建模，结合Qt界面编写技术和OSG粒子效果技术进行交互式设计，划分火灾和爆炸2大仿真模块，设计各模块下属基本功能，形成1套基于真实场景的大型储罐火灾爆炸事故后果三维仿真模拟软件。研究结果表明:基于VR技术的大型储罐火灾爆炸仿真软件具有较强的沉浸感和交互性等特点，能够实时仿真大型储罐火灾爆炸事故动态演变过程，降低大型储罐火灾爆炸试验成本，同时为制定事故应急预案和应急处置措施提供科学参考。     

基于HFACS的化工企业火灾爆炸事故人因分析*

为研究化工企业火灾爆炸事故的主要人为因素,以63起火灾爆炸事故案例为样本,构建人为因素分析与分类系统（HFACS）模型,进行火灾爆炸事故人为因素分类统计与分析,并利用卡方检验和比值比分析HFACS模型上下层级间的因果关系。结果表明:HFACS模型中上下层级人为因素间存在显著的因果关系,层级1中的“不良的组织氛围”及“组织过程漏洞”和层级2中“监督不充分”在HFACS模型中可以显著增大事故发生的可能性,且“资源管理漏洞”、“不良的组织氛围”、“组织过程漏洞”→“监督不充分”→“人员因素”→“违规”是引发事故的关键路径,并根据HFACS模型中引发事故的关键路径及其人为因素的主要表现形式,提出针对性的化工企业火灾爆炸事故预防措施。     

PLR事故隐患分级法在上海市化工企业中的应用

PLR事故隐患分级法针对火灾、爆炸、毒物泄漏重大事故类型 ,根据事故隐患评价的基本原理 ,结合上海市事故发生及隐患普查现状 ,提出了上海市“重大事故隐患”的定义和辨识方法 ,确定了事故隐患易发性(P)、事故导致损失程度 (L)和事故后果影响范围 (R0 .5)三项评价指标 ,并将P ,L ,R三项指标组合成“PLR事故隐患分级评价表” ,由PLR事故隐患分级评价表得出事故隐患分级结果。新方法通过在上海市典型化工企业的试点应用 ,验证了PLR事故隐患分级法在化工企业中的可操作性和有效性 ,为上海市重大事故隐患的辨识、评价和整改工作提供了科学的管理方法     

事故树分析法在LPG储罐火灾爆炸事故中的应用

LPG(液化石油气)属于危险化学品之一,LPG储罐发生火灾爆炸的机率大,造成的损失比较严重,故对其火灾爆炸事故进行研究具有重要意义。LPG储罐爆炸根据其发生机理分为化学爆炸(燃爆)和物理爆炸两种模式。本文通过对LPG储罐燃爆﹑物理爆炸两类事故进行系统分析,建立了以LPG储罐燃爆、物理爆炸为顶事件的事故树。通过对其事故树的定性分析,得到了影响顶事件的各个最小割(径)集。通过计算底事件的结构重要度,确定了影响LPG储罐火灾爆炸事故的主要因素,并提出了相应的改进措施,进而提高LPG储罐的安全性和运行可靠性。     

The significance of domino effect in chemical accidents

A historical survey was performed on 330 accidents involving domino effect, occurred in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials; only accidents occurred after 1st-January-1961 have been considered. The main features – geographical location, type of accident, materials involved, origin and causes, consequences, domino sequences – were analyzed, with special consideration to the situation in the developing countries and compared to those from other previous surveys. Among the involved substances, LPG was the most frequent one, followed by liquid hydrocarbons. Process plants (38.5% of cases) and storage areas (33%) were the most common settings; 10.6% of past domino accidents occurred in transfer operations. The ratio between “two-step” and “three-step” domino accidents was found to be 6. A specific analysis of the accidents (84) occurred in the 21st century was performed, comparing them with the total set of accidents. Finally, a set of specific recommendations inferred from the results is provided.     

基于HCNAM-BN的化工过程爆炸事故致因链分析

为了从源头上预防化工过程爆炸事故,依据风险耦合理论,探讨了各风险因子非线性耦合演化为爆炸事故的机理,构建了层次耦合网络分析模型（HCNAM）;从多因素风险耦合角度分析了国内外44起典型化工过程爆炸事故,统计了各风险因子之间的耦合概率并进行了耦合致因重要度分级;采用耦合概率与二态分布相结合的条件概率分布,将层次耦合网络分析模型转化为贝叶斯网络,并对氯乙烯单体槽爆炸性混合气体爆炸事故进行了应用研究。结果表明:91种双因子耦合风险状态中,47种呈现弱耦合致因特性;7种因子双耦合形成风险的概率较大;基于HCNAM-BN模型分析事故,可有效辨识事故最可能致因因素,获取各事故致因链的发生概率并确定事故网络关键节点。