综合自然灾害风险管理--全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择

综合自然灾害风险管理是目前国际上防灾减灾和灾害管理较先进的措施和模式，是针对各种自然灾害的全灾害的管理，是贯穿于灾害管理全过程，集中于灾害风险和承灾体脆弱性分析并强调多层面、多元化和多学科参与合作的全面整合的灾害管理模式。介绍了综合自然灾害风险管理的必要性、概念和本质，探讨了综合自然灾害管理的基本理论、对策及其实施过程和实施战略，在此基础上提出了对我国实施综合自然灾害风险管理的建议，为强化和推动我国综合自然灾害风险管理提供参考。     

Natural disasters: a framework for research and teaching

Natural disasters are defined in this paper by relating the impact of extreme geophysical events to patterns of human vulnerability. Hazard perception is shown to be a factor that limits the mitigation of risk. The historical development of disaster studies is traced and five different schools of thought are identified. The current International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) is evaluated critically with regard to its potential for unifying the disparate strands of knowledge and its scope as a vehicle for education.
A pedagogical framework for disaster studies is presented. Time and space provide valuable unifying factors, while the subject matter can be differentiated according to the continua and dichotomies that it presents. In disaster studies as in other branches of higher education, an ecocentric approach is preferable to a technocentric one, as many of the poorer nations of the world, which are most afflicted by natural catastrophe, will have to rely for mitigation on maintaining their ecological sustainability, instead of depending on sophisticated technology. Valuable insights into the impact of environmental extremes on mankind are gained from the study of disasters as human ecology.     

地震应急演练虚拟仿真应用技术

地震是一种破坏性极大的突发性自然灾害。破坏性地震发生后,各级政府和部门必须迅速应对这种突发性事件。开展应急演练培训,能提高应急管理人员的应急处置和科学决策能力。应用虚拟仿真应用技术构建了虚拟地震应急演练平台,提出了系统体系结构、想定编辑器、演练控制的设计思想以及虚拟应急演练的组织方式。虚拟地震应急演练平台使演练者能够通过看地震灾害现场,做出相应决策,从而增强受训者的临场感觉,提升地震应急管理人员的快速反应和应急处置能力。     

Is the environment becoming more hazardous?—A global survey 1947 to 1980

This paper examines the assertion that natural disasters are increasingly destructive using evidence from disaster reports during the period 1947–1980. The criteria for judging the impact of a given natural disaster are chiefly loss of life and the extent of the geographical area affected. In spite of uneveness and bias in the reporting of sudden impact disasters the conclusions are that both the frequency of disasters and number of people killed are increasing. Further research into the social consequences of disasters and the need for disaster preparedness training programmes are recommended.     

Towards an integrated approach of disaster and environment management: A case study of Thua Thien Hue province,central Viet Nam

Disasters and environmental degradation create serious problems all around the world. They are inherently linked, but little attention is paid to their interaction, particularly at local levels. The degree of integration of disaster management and risk analysis with environmental management programs in relation to human vulnerability has been examined in Thua Thien Hue Province, Central Viet Nam. Unsustainable agricultural practices, and inappropriate development programs have contributed substantially to the increase of disaster risks. On the other hand, disasters damage natural resources and reduce environmental quality, indirectly contributing to increasing poverty which in turn, adds to the vulnerability of both natural and human systems, so further increasing disaster losses. Notwithstanding, in Viet Nam, there is a big gap between disaster and environment management policies and programs. In order to bridge the gap, an integrated approach in which environment-disaster linkage, rural—urban linkage, and poverty are brought into focus as core aspects of disaster management.     

Financial services and disaster risk finance: Examples from the community level

Increased attention has recently been given to the possible role of financial services in the management of natural disaster risk. Local communities have been at the forefront of developing innovative disaster risk finance strategies and implementing risk-oriented incentive programs. In view of increasing risks, including the impacts of climate change, such programs will become more important. This paper examines four models and some recent experiences in using financial services at the community level. The paper offers an overview of advantages and limitations of each model to manage disaster risk in communities. Examples include a federal government initiated scheme of social protection funds, a local government risk reduction scheme, an insurance product provided by a non-governmental organization, and a micro-insurance scheme. Finally, the paper offers some directions about specific ways that the public and private sectors, in collaboration with other partners can improve finance alternatives for disaster management at the community level. It appears that a range of follow-up studies and further dialogue is needed, in order to expand the knowledge on what types of risk finance models can help manage and reduce the financial impacts of natural disasters.     

Friends and family vs. government: who does the public rely on more to prepare for natural disasters?

This paper examines what organizations and groups individuals rely on to help prepare for natural disasters and how reliance differs vis-à-vis demographic characteristics. Using data gathered from 2,008 individuals employed in the United States, the results revealed that individuals are significantly more likely to rely on friends and family than government organizations at the local, state, and federal level. The findings also suggest that this reliance varies across demographic groups. For example, data from the present study suggest that women and minority groups as well as individuals who are older and less educated are significantly more likely to rely on organizations to help prepare for natural disasters. This study contributes to the disaster management and risk communication literatures by offering key insights into the organizations and groups the American public in general, and certain demographic groups in particular, rely on when it comes to preparing for natural disasters. Knowledge about the organizations and groups that individuals rely on to help prepare for natural disasters can help policymakers and practitioners target those organizations as conduits to deliver critical preparedness information, as well as other information related to disaster mitigation, response, and recovery.     

Financial services and disaster risk finance: Examples from the community level

Increased attention has recently been given to the possible role of financial services in the management of natural disaster risk. Local communities have been at the forefront of developing innovative disaster risk finance strategies and implementing risk-oriented incentive programs. In view of increasing risks, including the impacts of climate change, such programs will become more important. This paper examines four models and some recent experiences in using financial services at the community level. The paper offers an overview of advantages and limitations of each model to manage disaster risk in communities. Examples include a federal government initiated scheme of social protection funds, a local government risk reduction scheme, an insurance product provided by a non-governmental organization , and a micro-insurance scheme. Finally, the paper offers some directions about specific ways that the public and private sectors, in collaboration with other partners can improve finance alternatives for disaster management at the community level. It appears that a range of follow-up studies and further dialogue is needed, in order to expand the knowledge on what types of risk finance models can help manage and reduce the financial impacts of natural disasters.     

Flood disaster monitoring and evaluation in China

Abstract

China frequently experiences natural disasters, of which flooding is the most serious. How to monitor and control natural disasters, assess damage, and provide relief is the most urgent problem for the Chinese government and disaster experts. A national integrated system using remote sensing, geographic information systems, the Global Positioning System, and other technology for monitoring and evaluating flood disasters has been assembled and tried out for 3 years. The system has played an important role in flood mitigation during the trial and has become a key part of the flood management system at China's National Flood Control Headquarters. This paper presents an overview of the system and its use in China.     

Then and now: A 30-year journey from the ‘leading edge’

A fledgling disaster management organization in 1984, Jamaica's Office of Disaster Preparedness (ODP) hosted the pioneering international disaster mitigation conference to share information and to contemplate how vulnerability to disasters from natural hazards could be reduced. Over the period 1979–2009, the overall focus of the agency was response, given the plethora of extreme events, and the priority of the Government of Jamaica. The organization was associated with several efforts at disaster mitigation, but the need for building the agency's capacity to lead national efforts to integrate mitigation planning into development did not seem to gain traction among the policy makers. Growing losses since 2004, the evidence of climate change and the need for adaptation, and the regional and international disaster risk management agenda have brought attention to the need for review and development of Jamaica's disaster risk management capacity. This paper examines highlights of the 30-year journey of disaster management in Jamaica, and highlights proposals for strengthening the national framework and the organizational structure of ODPEM.     

Capital assets framework for analysing household vulnerability during disaster

This paper examines the vulnerability of households to disasters, using an asset vulnerability framework to represent livelihoods. Such frameworks are widely employed to analyse household poverty and focus on living conditions and well-being rather than money-metric measures of consumption and income. The conceptualisation of household vulnerability is a challenge in current studies on coping with disasters. The paper considers whether a capital assets framework is useful in identifying and assessing household vulnerability in the context of the Wenchuan earthquake in China in 2008. The framework has five categories of assets (financial, human, natural, physical, and social capital) and attempts to measure the resilience and vulnerability of households. When applied to a major disaster, asset-based methods face the problem of heterogeneity of the population, such as with regard to livelihood type or residence. Moreover, the effect of external interventions, such as the provision of relief assistance, must be taken into account.     

城市自然灾害的社会因素及防治对策研究

以社会、经济意义作标准,抑减自然灾害的重点应在城市、因而研究城市自然灾害的社会因素是当务之急.本文列出并分析了十大社会因素,它们是:1)城市地生态;2)城市的灾害文化背景;3)政策导向的正负效应;4)城市规划与建设;5)城市公共设施状况;6)人口和财富的集中程度;7)城市资源的开发利用;8)科技对城市减灾的贡献率;9)防灾减灾的误区;10)灾害应急.本文还认为以上十大因素对城市自然灾害的作用至少包括五个方面,它们是:1)诱发作用;2)放大作用;3)连接灾害链;4)承受灾害;5)抑减灾害.在以上基础上,本文提出了充分利用城市社会因素抗灾减灾的八条对策,即1)建立统一管理城市自然灾害工作的综合性政府机构势在必行;2)强化防灾减灾的背景工作;3)防灾减灾工作的立法;4)认清和摆正发展与灾害的关系;5)尊重科学、尊重知识,建立一套灾害顾问系统;6)建立一支快速救灾的专业队伍;7)加强保险事业与灾害研究和抑减工作的联系;8)城市间的协凋必须要有全局对策.     

Travelling without a helmet: tourists' vulnerabilities and responses to disasters in Indonesia

Tourists are particularly vulnerable when natural disasters occur in regions that they are visiting. It is assumed that they lack awareness and understanding of the actions that they need to take in such circumstances. This study examines the responses of tourists in times of disaster, building on empirical data collected through large‐scale surveys conducted in Bali and Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in 2015. Both are important tourist destinations in the country that have suffered major disasters in recent years. The different types of responses to these events are framed using a grid/group analysis stemming from cultural theory. The study resulted in three key findings: (i) current disaster management planning largely follows a single rationale; (ii) tourists are not a homogeneous group, but rather a complex, diverse, and dynamic body of stakeholders; and (iii) the focus of disaster management planning should shift from a single rationale to a polyrational methodology. Disaster managers need to consider, therefore, these different aspects in the context of preparedness.     

Re-framing risk: the changing context of disaster mitigation and preparedness

This issue of Disasters explores the roles of NGOs and other actors in disaster mitigation and preparedness and also reviews broad international trends in risk management and disaster prevention. The need to address risk, and with that the motivation to improve disaster mitigation and preparedness, has tended to fall between the cracks of grander frameworks of development co-operation and humanitarian assistance. Despite the seemingly glaring need to reduce the horrific impact of floods, droughts and wars, disaster mitigation and preparedness have neither the allure of directly 'saving lives', nor of providing an 'escape from poverty'. There are, however, signs that risk management is becoming a mainstream concern. Factors such as the need to address factors that do not fit into traditional slots on the relief-development continuum, the rising economic costs of disasters and a growing acknowledgement that aid will never cover more than a small fraction of the costs of disasters are all leading to new approaches, priorities and institutional configurations. A realisation that dealing with risk and insecurity is a central part of how poor people develop their livelihood strategies has begun to position disaster mitigation and preparedness within many poverty alleviation agendas. A number of long-standing challenges remain; most of all, the complexities of maintaining the political will that is needed to ensure that risk management becomes more than a passing fad.     

Study on Middle and Short Term Forecast and Assessment Technology on Atmosphere Hydrosphere Disasters

Ａｎｙｄｉｓａｓｔｅｒａｓｓｅｓｓｍｅｎｔｍｅｔｈｏｄｍｕｓｔｈａｖｅａｗｉｄｅｇｒａｓｐｏｆｒｅｌａｔｅｄｂａｓｉｃｄａｔａ,ｉｎｃｌｕｄｉｎｇｄａｔａａｂｏｕｔｄｉｓａｓｔｅｒ－ｅｍｂｏｄｙｉｎｇｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔ,ｄｉｓａｓｔｅｒ－ｃａｕｓ...     

自然灾害等级划分及灾害分级管理研究

在论述了我国目前自然灾害等级划分和灾害分级管理的几种方法基础上，对自然灾害等级划分及灾害分级管理综合因素进行了分析认为：对自然灾害等级划分要统一评判指标─－以经济损失和人员伤亡为评判指标；建议在分级管理中采用灾害分级和灾损率两项指标；在灾害管理中建立科学的查灾、计灾、报交制度，加快灾害管理立法，走以法治灾之路．     

Collaborative emergency management: better community organising, better public preparedness and response

Community coordination requires communication and planning of precautions to take when faced with a severe threat of disaster. The unique case of the four Florida hurricanes of 2004--Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne--is used here to assess community responses to repeated threats of hurricanes. The paper examines how effectiveness in coordinating community disaster response efforts affects future public preparedness. The findings suggest that pre-season planning, open communication between emergency managers and elected officials, and the use of technology all had a significant impact on community responses. The repeated threat scenario indicates that emergency managers must work vigilantly to keep residents informed of the seriousness of a situation. The study describes how emergency managers in Florida countered public complacency during four hurricanes in six weeks. The strategies identified as useful by public managers in the context of hurricanes are applicable to other natural and man-made disasters.     

Integrating disaster risk reduction in national development planning: experience and challenges of Jamaica

It is generally recognised by the disaster risk management and development communities that disasters have a negative impact on development, and indeed can set back development by years. This realisation led to a new paradigm for the management of hazards and their impacts, namely an integrated approach which emphasises disaster risk reduction being incorporated into national development planning. Awareness, however, does not necessarily translate into implementation. ‘Reduce the underlying risk factors’, Priority for Action 4 of The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, reported the lowest average score for progress of the five priority areas. Challenges to progress, as reported by Governments included inappropriate development practices, high levels of poverty and other factors which increase vulnerability. Various authors have recognised the difficulty of consistently and successfully integrating disaster risk reduction into development planning. This integration is particularly challenging for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) which face high exposure to hazards, vulnerable populations and limited resources, often both human and financial. The efforts of Jamaica, a Caribbean SIDS, at integrating disaster risk reduction into national development, and some factors which proved to be important in making progress are presented here. This retrospective paper is written from the perspective of a participant observer and traces developments in disaster risk management over three decades, 1980–2010. Integration and inclusiveness, use of quantitative methods and application of risk assessments are identified as being important in gaining acceptance for disaster risk reduction.     

Disaster risk,social vulnerability,and economic development

This paper examines the extent to which economic development decreases a country's risk of experiencing climate‐related disasters as well as the societal impacts of those events. The paper proceeds from the underlying assumption that disasters are not inherently natural, but arise from the intersection of naturally‐occurring hazards within fragile environments. It uses data from the International Disaster Database (EM‐DAT), 1 representing country‐year‐level observations over the period 1980–2007. The study finds that low‐income countries are significantly more at risk of climate‐related disasters, even after controlling for exposure to climate hazards and other factors that may confound disaster reporting. Following the occurrence of a disaster, higher income generally diminishes a country's social vulnerability to such happenings, resulting in lower levels of mortality and morbidity. This implies that continued economic development may be a powerful tool for lessening social vulnerability to climate change.     

美国的灾害应急管理及其对我国相关工作的启示

在介绍美国灾害应急管理体系的基础上，结合中国实际，对美国气象灾害应急管理工作进行了分析，并借鉴其成功经验，提出了建立和完善中国气象灾害应急机制的一些措施。认为广泛吸纳国际社会在灾害应急管理方面的成功模式和经验，形成具有中国特色的现代化气象灾害应急管理机制，从而进一步加快中国气象灾害管理体系的建设，是科学应对气象灾害，减少人民生命财产损失，实现国家安全和经济社会可持续发展的一个重要举措。