The Worldwide Availability of Gold

This paper summarizes Bureau of Mines research relating to the state of the world gold industry. The authors discuss the world gold industry structure, demonstrated gold resources, current production, and the long-term cost and availability of potential future gold production.
The long-term cost and availability of primary gold production from 111 significant producing mines and developing deposits in 13 market economy countries (MECs) is evaluated. Total recoverable gold available (as of January 1984) from the evaluated mines and deposits is estimated at 819 million troy ounces. The Republic of South Africa is estimated to account for 87% of total recoverable gold. The USA and Canada account for 4% and 4.5% of the total, respectively. Eighty-three per cent of total recoverable gold is available at a constant 1984 break-even price of $400 per ounce, and 70% is available at $300 per ounce. South Africa accounts for 90% of the gold available at $400 per ounce or less. Gold resources in the Soviet Union and China are discussed but not evaluated for costs of production. Some conclusions of the analyses are that South Africa should remain the largest world producer until the year 2000 and annual MEC output in the year 2000 should not be significantly different from current output, given constant 1984 gold prices of more than $300 per ounce.     

The Worldwide Availability of Fluorspar

This paper reviews a recent assessment of fluorspar reserves and resources for 13 market economy countries and the People's Republic of China, and how they relate to the overall availability of fluorspar on the world market. Current world production, consumption and world trade issues are discussed.
Nearly 5 million tonnes of fluorspar were produced in 1985, and approximately 60% of that enters the world export market. In recent years world trade has started to shift away from the acid, metallurgical and ceramic grades of fluorspar, as ore-producing countries look towards higher-value downstream products.
Total potentially recoverable fluorspar from 52 major producing mines and deposits is estimated at nearly 95 million tonnes (as of January 1985). The Republic of South Africa accounts for 31% of the reserves, with Mexico and the People's Republic of China each contributing 18%.
The average total cost and availability of fluorspar is evaluated. Approximately 75% of acid-grade fluorspar evaluated is potentially available at or below a 1985 constant-dollar cost of US$110 tonne⁻¹. Nearly 94% of metallurgical grades are potentially available at costs of US$75 tonne⁻¹ and below, and virtually all of the ceramic grades could be produced at costs below the 1985 reported market price of US$103 tonne⁻¹.     

The Worldwide Availability of Phosphate Rock

The US Bureau of Mines has investigated the resource potential of 201 phosphate mines and depositee in 28 market economy countries and 17 mines and deposits in the USSR and China. The 201 mines and deposits contain an estimated 34.2 billiong tonnes (t) of recoverable phosphate rock (at the demonstrated resource level), with Morocco and Western Sahara accounting for 61% (21 billion t) and with the USA accounting for 19% (6.4 billion t). The 17 mines and deposits evaluated in the USSR and China contain approximately 1.5 billion t of potentially recoverable phosphate rock. Potential annual capacity from low-cost, high-grade producing mines in the USA is estimated to decline significantly during the latter half of the next decade, and the US phosphate fertilizer industry will have to obtain phosphate rock by developing new, higher-cost, lower-grade mines or import phosphate rock to satisfy anticipated demand in the next century. Of the world's new production capacity that are likely to be developed over the next decade, slightly over one-third could be produced at an estimated 1981 cost of $40/t or less, and about two-thirds would cost in the $40 to $50 per tonne range (including a 15% rate of return). In comparison, most of the competing phosphate rock from producing mines in Morocco could be produced for less than $40/t.     

The worldwide availability of cobalt

The US Department of Interior, Bureau of Mines has evaluated the potential resource and annual availability of cobalt from 27 deposits or districts in 11 market economy countries. More than 90% of primary cobalt production from market economy countries, mainly by-product output from copper and nickel operations, was analysed. The producing operations evaluated in this study were expected to produce about 19 000 t of cobalt in 1989, significantly less than the available capacity of 31 000 t. Approximately 1200 000 t of cobalt is potentially recoverable at the demonstrated resource level. Very large additional resources exist, especially in laterite deposits, but are at the inferred level.     

World phosphate supply

The Bureau of Mines investigated the resources, costs, capacities, market relationships, and short- and long-run supply of phosphate rock and phosphoric acid. The 206 mines and deposits evaluated in 30 market economy countries (MECs) contain an estimated 35.1 billion tonnes of recoverable phosphate rock (demonstrated resource level). US resources are sufficient to satisfy both the domestic market and an export market for phosphate products well beyond 2000. Resource depletion at current producers, however, means new property development (with higher costs) will be required if US production levels are to be maintained. Existing worldwide capacity can satisfy expected demand through the early 1990s. Expansion at existing mines or low demand growth could mean no new property development is required before the late 1990s. Worldwide, almost $8 billion could be required for the development of new phosphate rock properties between now and 2000, given 3% annual growth in demand. Though profit may not be the principal motivation for development of government-owned operations, most properties that could develop in the 1990s would require price increases of 20–50% to break even. To earn a 15% rate of return on investment, prices must rise to nearly double the $23–271 tonne US price level of 1988. Current US phosphate rock and phosphoric acid producers appear to be competitive (on a variable cost basis) with many other suppliers in major markets. New US properties will have higher variable costs than current producers; however, they are competitive with most projected new foreign development. The US phosphoric acid industry will most likely face increased competition as more of the foreign phosphate rock producers develop the capacity to process rock into phosphoric acid and other fertilizer products.     

Tin Availability in Market Economy Countries

The U.S. Department of Interior's Bureau of Mines determined costs associated with the production of tin from 18 market economy countries (MECs). The resource and relative economic positions of 146 tin deposits were evaluated. Demonstrated resources of recoverable tin metal are estimated to be 2.8 million metric tons. Over 70% of this material is recoverable from three south-east Asian countries - Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia; all are members of the International Tin Agreement (ITA).
In the last five years, Brazil has become a major, low-cost tin producer. In light of their large resources Brazil has become a dominant MEC tin producer and one of the world's few tin producers that can prosper during a protracted period of low tin prices.     

Forest-based biomass supply potential and economics for the pellet production in Nepal

In the current study, the potential of forest-based biomass supply for the pellet production in Nepal is investigated. This study showed that about 2.76 million tonnes (Mt) biomass in the form of pellets are potentially available from forest-based biomass. Considering a processing capacity of 6 tonnes (t)/hr of a pellet plant, the production cost of the pellets was calculated to be $43.53/t. Pellets are generally used as fuel to produce thermal energy in industries, which helps to save the economy and the environment of the country.     

Exploration and discovery of Australia's copper,nickel, lead and zinc resources 1976–2005

Examination of copper, nickel, lead and zinc (base metals) exploration expenditure and discovery in Australia over the period 1976–2005 reveals some significant trends. Australia's base metal resource inventory grew substantially as a consequence of successful exploration over the period, both through addition of resources at known deposits and new discoveries, notably a small number of very large deposits that underpin the resource base. In 2005, Australia had the world's largest economic demonstrated resources (EDR) of nickel, lead and zinc, and the second largest EDR of copper. Growth in nickel resources has been especially strong owing to discovery of large laterite resources in the late 1990s. Resource life, in average terms based on current EDR and production, is approximately 30 years for lead and zinc, 40 years for nickel sulphide (120 years for all nickel EDR) and 50 years for copper. Despite this success, major increases in production over the period (copper, nickel and zinc output increasing 3–4 fold, lead output doubling) and a fall in discovery rates during much of the 1990s means that resource life for lead and zinc is lower and nickel sulphide comparable now to that in 1976; only the resource life of copper has grown substantially over the period. Current published ore reserves are sufficient for at least 15 years operations at current production levels, but only a small number of the largest deposits currently being mined are likely to still be in production in 20 years. However, several mines have substantial inferred resources that may allow production beyond current mine reserves and there is a substantial number of undeveloped deposits that may provide the foundation for extended or new mining operations. The discovery record is strongly cyclical with resource growth for all the base metals punctuated by the discovery of giant (world-class) deposits each decade: these underpin current and future production. Recent higher metal prices and renewed interest in base metals, especially nickel, has reversed a 10 year decline in base metal exploration attended by reduced rates of discovery and resulted in record expenditure, new nickel, copper and zinc discoveries, and increased resources at a number of existing deposits, notably the Olympic Dam copper–uranium–gold deposit. With the exception of the Prominent Hill copper–gold and West Musgrave nickel–copper deposits, most of the recent discoveries, especially zinc (-lead) deposits, are of small tonnage (some of high grade). Nevertheless, these new discoveries have helped stimulate further exploration and also highlight the potential for further discoveries in little-explored provinces, especially those under regolith and shallow sedimentary cover.     

A quantitative estimate of potential aluminium recovery from incineration bottom ashes

The recovery of ferrous and non ferrous metals from the bottom ashes is a common practice in the most part of Europe, both for the environmental advantages of their recycle and to avoid problems of swelling and expansion that metals can cause when bottom ashes are reused in concrete production or in road construction. This paper focuses on metal recovery from bottom ashes produced in Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) incinerators, with a particular focus on aluminium. A forecasting model was developed in order to evaluate the quantity of aluminium scraps recoverable from the bottom ashes. The model was applied to the Italian situation but its validity can be extended to other countries. Focusing on Italy, by applying conventional technologies for the separation of non-ferrous metals, the amount of aluminium potentially recoverable from bottom ashes is estimated in the range from 16,500 to 21,000 tonnes at the year 2015, and from 19,000 to 28,500 tonnes at 2020.     

US uranium deposits: A geostatistical model

The frequency distributions of both grade and size of metal deposits may be well approximated by lognormal distribution functions. Using data on presently viable deposits and a simplified function which links production cost to deposit grade and size, a bivariate lognormal deposit grade/size distribution may be calibrated for a given geological environment. Exploration is introduced by assuming that the proportion discovered of the potential uranium reserve available at or below a given production cost can be represented by a function of the average deposit size and the unit exploration expenditure. As output the model derives estimates of total reserves linked to maximum production costs and to exploration expenditure where the latter may be expressed either as expenditure per lb of mineral discovered or as a given percentage of operating profit. The model is offered as a basis for discussion, and the conclusions are tentative.     

Estimated Costs for the Recovery of Copper from Demonstrated Resources in Market Economy Countries

This article deals with the availability of demonstrated resources of copper in market economy countries. It examines the costs for mining and milling from producing as well as developing and explored deposits. While the resources are inadequate, the engineering and cost estimates indicate that a price of $1.50 per pound in 1981 U.S. dollars will be required to sustain existing capacity and bring on 2.2 million tons of new capacity of primary copper.
Cet article traite de la disponibilité des ressources prouvées du cuivre dans les pays à économies de marché. Il étudie les coûts d'extraction et de transformation se rapportant aux gisements productifs ainsi qu'aux gisements en développement et à ceux qui viennent d'étre découverts. Bien que les réserves soient suffisantes, l'ingénierie et l'estimation des coûts montrent qu'il est nécessaire d'investir une valeur de 1,50 de dollars des Etats-Unis par livre en 1981 pour maintenir la capacité de production et permettre une nouvelle capacité de 2,2 millions de tonnes de cuivre primaire.
Este artículo trata sobre la disponibilidad de recursos demostrados de cobre en países con economía de mercado. Examina los costos de extracción y molido de minerales de los depósitos en producción asi como de aquellos en desarrollo o exploración. Si bien es cierto que los recursos son adecuados la ingeniería y la estimación de costos indican que el precio de 1.50, dólares de 1981 por libra será necesario para sostener la capacidad existente y poner en operación una capacidad adicional de 2.2 millones de toneladas de cobre primario.     

Rare-Earth Oxide Availability in Market Economy Countries

This paper presents a review by the Bureau of Mines on the 1985 status of the rare earths industry in the Market Economy Countries (MEC). Demonstrated resources for the 38 evaluated MEC properties are estimated at 3.3 million metric tons of recoverable rare-earth oxides. About 75% of the total is contained in producing properties, and 21% are contained in undeveloped properties; the remaining 4% are contained in past producers. Total MEC production in 1985 was estimated at 30 500 mt. Assuming demand does not increase sharply, producing properties can continue to meet overall rare earths demand through at least the end of this century.     

Cement and concrete flow analysis in a rapidly expanding economy: Ireland as a case study

A national material flow model for concrete, the most popular construction material in Ireland, was developed based on the framework of material flow analysis. Using this model the Irish concrete cycle for the year 2007 was constructed by analysing the material life cycle of concrete which consists of the three phases of: production (including extraction of raw materials and manufacture of cement), usage (ready-mix and other products) and waste management (disposal or recovery). In this year, approximately 35 million metric tonnes of raw materials were consumed to produce 5 million metric tonnes of cement and 33 million metric tonnes of concrete. Concrete production was approximately 8 metric tonnes per capita. By comparison, the concrete waste produced in that year was minimal at only 0.3 million metric tonnes. Irish building stock is young and there was little demolition of structures in the year of study. However this build up of construction stock will have implications for the future waste flows when the majority of stock built in the last decade (43% of residential stock was constructed in the last 15 years) reaches its end of life.     

The conservation benefits of cost-effective land acquisition: A case study in Maryland

Economic theory asserts that to achieve maximum conservation benefits land acquisition needs to be cost effective. Yet the most common planning technique used by land conservation organizations is ‘benefit-targeting’ that focuses only on acquiring parcels with the highest benefits and ignores costs. Unlike most of the literature which focuses on covering problems, this research applies optimization techniques to achieve maximum aggregate conservation benefits for an ongoing land acquisition effort in the Catoctin Mountain Region in central Maryland. For this case study, optimization yields additional conservation benefits worth an estimated $3.1–$3.9 million or achieves the same level of conservation benefits but at a cost savings ranging from $0.9 to $3.5 million, depending on the initial budget size. Finally, the highest efficiencies are achieved in low budget scenarios, like those most prevalent in conservation efforts.     

Population,environment, and development

The strategies for reducing population growth include social development and improvement in the educational attainment of women. The decline in Kenya's growth rate was attributed to high female literacy and reduced infant mortality. Another strategy for enhancing fertility decline is to reduce child mortality, particularly from preventable causes such as diarrhea. The entire cost of such a strategy to reduce preventable disease would be about $1.33 per 300 million taxpayers in developed countries. Family planning services must be expanded. Prevention of maternal mortality and AIDS would bring major benefits. Strategies for environmental protection emphasized the already existing plan of action set out in the UNCED document Agenda 21 in Rio de Janeiro. The plan has suffered from inaction. The estimated cost of $625 million was considered to be several times smaller than the costs of inaction. The elimination of subsidies in tropical forests would have an immediate impact. Natural resource accounting at the national level would include the value of natural resources. Pricing would change radically for gasoline if the costs of urban smog, acid rain, low-level ozone pollution, and global warming were taken into account. Strategies for sustainable development pertained to the preceding strategies and others indicated in the Agenda 21 Action Plan. If funding were better targeted to the poorest 20% of global population with high fertility rates, the accomplishments would be heralded. 1.2 million are living in absolute poverty, and aid for nutrition, primary health care, water and sanitation, basic education, and family planning amounts to only 10% of expenditures. An increase to 20% would mean a contribution from Americans of $7.50 per person or 33% of $25 thousand million from all developed countries. Developing countries need to lower their military expenditures, privatize public enterprises, change inappropriate development policies, eliminate corruption, and improve national governance. The debt burden should be reduced.     

An engineering-economic model of pipeline transport of CO2 with application to carbon capture and storage

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) involves the capture of CO₂ at a large industrial facility, such as a power plant, and its transport to a geological (or other) storage site where CO₂ is sequestered. Previous work has identified pipeline transport of liquid CO₂ as the most economical method of transport for large volumes of CO₂. However, there is little published work on the economics of CO₂ pipeline transport. The objective of this paper is to estimate total cost and the cost per tonne of transporting varying amounts of CO₂ over a range of distances for different regions of the continental United States. An engineering-economic model of pipeline CO₂ transport is developed for this purpose. The model incorporates a probabilistic analysis capability that can be used to quantify the sensitivity of transport cost to variability and uncertainty in the model input parameters. The results of a case study show a pipeline cost of US$ 1.16 per tonne of CO₂ transported for a 100 km pipeline constructed in the Midwest handling 5 million tonnes of CO₂ per year (the approximate output of an 800 MW coal-fired power plant with carbon capture). For the same set of assumptions, the cost of transport is US$ 0.39 per tonne lower in the Central US and US$ 0.20 per tonne higher in the Northeast US. Costs are sensitive to the design capacity of the pipeline and the pipeline length. For example, decreasing the design capacity of the Midwest US pipeline to 2 million tonnes per year increases the cost to US$ 2.23 per tonne of CO₂ for a 100 km pipeline, and US$ 4.06 per tonne CO₂ for a 200 km pipeline. An illustrative probabilistic analysis assigns uncertainty distributions to the pipeline capacity factor, pipeline inlet pressure, capital recovery factor, annual O&M cost, and escalation factors for capital cost components. The result indicates a 90% probability that the cost per tonne of CO₂ is between US$ 1.03 and US$ 2.63 per tonne of CO₂ transported in the Midwest US. In this case, the transport cost is shown to be most sensitive to the pipeline capacity factor and the capital recovery factor. The analytical model elaborated in this paper can be used to estimate pipeline costs for a broad range of potential CCS projects. It can also be used in conjunction with models producing more detailed estimates for specific projects, which requires substantially more information on site-specific factors affecting pipeline routing.     

Costs and benefits of urban erosion and sediment control: The North Carolina experience

The EPA’s new nonpoint source pollution control requirements will soon institutionalize urban erosion and sediment pollution control practices nationwide. The public and private sector costs and social benefits associated with North Carolina’s program (one of the strongest programs in the country in terms of implementation authority, staffing levels, and comprehensiveness of coverage) are examined to provide general policy guidance on questions relating to the likely burden the new best management practices will have on the development industry, the likely costs and benefits of such a program, and the feasibility of running a program on a cost recovery basis. We found that urban erosion and sediment control requirements were not particularly burdensome to the development industry (adding about 4% on average to development costs). Public-sector program costs ranged between $2.4 and $4.8 million in fiscal year 1989. Our contingent valuation survey suggests that urban households in North Carolina are willing to pay somewhere between $7.1 and $14.2 million a year to maintain current levels of sediment pollution control. Our benefit-cost analysis suggests that the overall ratio is likely to be positive, although a definitive figure is elusive. Lastly, we found that several North Carolina localities have cost recovery fee systems that are at least partially self-financing. This article is based on research by the authors for the North Carolina Department of Environment, Health and Natural Resources (DEHNR). The views are those of the research team and do not necessarily reflect the position of DEHNR.     

A process model to estimate the cost of industrial scale biodiesel production from waste cooking oil by supercritical transesterification

This paper describes the conceptual design of a production process in which waste cooking oil is converted via supercritical transesterification with methanol to methyl esters (biodiesel).Since waste cooking oil contains water and free fatty acids, supercritical transesterification offers great advantage to eliminate the pre-treatment capital and operating cost.A supercritical transesterification process for biodiesel continuous production from waste cooking oil has been studied for three plant capacities (125,000; 80,000 and 8000 tonnes biodiesel/year). It can be concluded that biodiesel by supercritical transesterification can be scaled up resulting high purity of methyl esters (99.8%) and almost pure glycerol (96.4%) attained as by-product.The economic assessment of the biodiesel plant shows that biodiesel can be sold at US$ 0.17/l (125,000 tonnes/year), US$ 0.24/l (80,000 tonnes/year) and US$ 0.52/l for the smallest capacity (8000 tonnes/year).The sensitive key factors for the economic feasibility of the plant are: raw material price, plant capacity, glycerol price and capital cost.Overall conclusion is that the process can compete with the existing alkali and acid catalyzed processes.Especially for the conversion of waste cooking oil to biodiesel, the supercritical process is an interesting technical and economical alternative.     

Evaluating the PM damage cost due to urban air pollution and vehicle emissions in Seoul, Korea

This study evaluated the prospective damage costs of PM(2.5) inhalation. We performed a health risk assessment based on an exposure-response function to estimate the annual population risk in the Seoul metropolitan city, Korea. Also, we estimated a willingness-to-pay (WTP) amount for reducing the mortality rate in order to evaluate a statistical life value. We combined the annual population risk and the value-of-statistical-life to calculate the damage cost estimate. In the health risk assessment, we applied the PM(2.5) relative risk to evaluate the annual population risk. We targeted an exposure population of 5,401,369 persons who were over the age of 30. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation for uncertainty analysis, we estimated that the population risk of PM(2.5) inhalation during a year in Seoul is 2181 premature deaths for acute exposure and 18,510 premature deaths for chronic exposure. The monthly average WTP for 5/1000 mortality reduction over ten years is $20.20 USD (95% C.I: $16.60-24.50) and the implied value-of-statistical-life (VSL) is $485,000 USD (95% C.I: $398,000-588,000). The damage cost estimate due to risk from PM(2.5) inhalation in Seoul is about $1057 million USD per year for acute exposure, and $8972 million USD per year for chronic exposure. It is important to note that this cost estimate does not reflect all health damage cost estimates in this urban area. This recommendation is a model for evaluating a mortality risk reduction and as such we must re-evaluate an integrated application of morbidity risk.     

A COST‐BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY PROTECTION IN THE CATAWBA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The primary objective of this study was to perform a cost‐benefit analysis of maintaining the current level of water quality in the Catawba River basin. Economic benefits were estimated using a stated preference survey method designed to value respondents' willingness to pay for a management plan to protect water quality in the Catawba basin over time. From the surveys conducted with 1,085 area residents, we calculated an annual mean willingness to pay of $139 for the management plan, or more than $75.4 million for all taxpayers in the area. Over the five‐year time horizon in which respondents were asked to pay for the management plan, this resulted in a total economic benefit of $340.1 million. The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework model was used to estimate the amount of management activities needed to protect the current level of water quality in the basin over time. Based on the model results, the total cost of the management plan was calculated to be $244.8 million over a ten‐year period. The resulting cost‐benefit analysis indicated that the potential benefits of this management plan would outweigh the costs by more than $95 million.