The food-print of Paris: long-term reconstruction of the nitrogen flows imported into the city from its rural hinterland

Between the tenth and twentieth century the population of Paris city increased from a few thousand to near 10 million inhabitants. In response to the growing urban demand during this period, the agrarian systems of the surrounding rural areas tremendously increased their potential for commercial export of agricultural products, made possible by a surplus of agricultural production over local consumption by humans and livestock in these areas. Expressed in terms of nitrogen, the potential for export increased from about 60 kg N/km2/year of rural territory in the Middle Ages, to more than 5,000 kg N/km2/year from modern agriculture. As a result of the balance between urban population growth and rural productivity, the rural area required to supply Paris (i.e. its food-print) did not change substantially for several centuries, remaining at the size of the Seine watershed surrounding the city (around 60,000 km2). The theoretical estimate of the size of the supplying hinterland at the end of the eighteenth century is confirmed by the figures deduced from the analysis of the historical city toll data (octroi). During the second half of the twentieth century, the ‘food-print’ of Paris reduced in size, owing to an unprecedented increase in the potential for commercial export associated with modern agricultural systems based on chemical N fertilization. We argue that analysing the capacity of territories to satisfy the demand for nitrogen-containing food products of local or distant urban population and markets might provide new and useful insights when assessing world food resource allocation in the context of increasing population and urbanization.     

Historical changes in the food and water supply systems of the New York City Metropolitan Area

The history of New York City (NYC) is much shorter than those of most European cities, but New York shares in common the problem of providing sufficient water and food to its inhabitants from its watershed and foodshed. These resource provision areas have grown over time and changed in character as they expanded in tandem with the growth of the city. In contrast to some cities, such as Paris, which historically has been supported by local food production, NYC??s status as a trade center has enabled the supply of food from distant sources from early in its history. NYC??s transportation system has rapidly evolved from early roads to canals, railroads, and modern surface and air transport networks. The development of the hydraulic engineering of the City??s reservoir, aqueduct, and tunnel system determined the extent of its water supply watersheds. Deviations from general growth trends in food and water consumption have occurred due to environmental and economic disruptions. As the growth of the city slowed in the last few decades, environmental technology has reduced the impact of the City on its environment, due to water metering, reduction of leakage, and improvements in waste treatment. However, per capita food consumption in the US continues to increase, with implications for the environmental health of New York and its region, as well as other centers of net anthropogenic nutrient inputs.     

Non-ferrous metals (Pb, Cu, Zn) needs and city development: the Paris example (1815–2009)

The aim of this study is to explore the urban and/or industrial needs for non-ferrous metals (lead (Pb), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn)) of Paris (France), a highly developed city conurbation, from the beginning of the nineteenth century to the present. Pb was necessary for the development of urban networks (Pb pipes), Zn for Parisian roofs and Cu for the development of boiler making and electricity. This study is based on economic statistics and shows that the situation evolved from a city transforming ores, having its smelters and transforming metal into goods, to a city where metal smelting has been more or less quickly banned, and where only a small activity of metal transformation into metal-containing goods remains. The patterns of the three metals showed slight differences. The deindustrialization of Paris is also accompanied by a change of the supplying areas over time. Ores were always imported from abroad, because of the lack of French non-ferrous metal mines. But foundries, which were first abroad, had developed in France between the late nineteenth and late twentieth century and were again found abroad at the end of the twentieth century. The transformation of metal into goods left Paris to the benefit of other parts of France first, then of abroad, over time. In a second part, the evaluation of Pb consumption per capita in Paris conurbation shows that Pb needs of Paris conurbation were higher than those of France in the nineteenth century. Then, the Paris demand was satisfied and it became lower than that of France. Both the deindustrialisation of Paris conurbation and its lower needs led to a decrease in the relative weight of Paris for non-ferrous metals, compared to other parts of France.     

中国金属矿产的消费强度与回收潜力分析

从中国金属资源安全的角度来看,优化战略性金属矿产的供应结构,降低一次矿产的对外依存度,通过合理的政策导向有效地增加中国城市矿产开发效率,挖掘废旧金属的回收和利用潜力,是实现矿产资源安全保障的重要前提。本文以铁、铜、铝等三种金属矿产为例,采用美国、英国、法国、德国、日本等五个工业化国家及中国1949—2015年的面板数据,通过构建消费强度、回收密度和寿命分布函数分析了工业化五国金属消费和报废金属回收的历史规律,预测了2016—2030年中国三种金属消费和报废回收的变化趋势。结果显示:(1)五个工业化国家铁、铜、铝金属的消费强度经历了快速上升、平台缓降和较快下降的过程,而回收密度则经历了缓慢上升、较快增长和快速增长的三个阶段,在消费强度与回收密度的第三阶段呈现"脱钩"特征;(2)中国铁、铜、铝三种金属的消费强度大幅增加主要是集中在2000年以后,2015年我国铁、铜、铝的消费强度分别为540 kg/人、8 kg/人和23 kg/人,回收密度分别只有100kg/人、0.5 kg/人和3 kg/人,除铁、铝的消费强度进入平台下降期外,铜消费强度和三种金属回收密度仍处于增长的第一阶段;(3)预计2030年,中国铁、铜、铝的消费强度将分别为450 kg/人、9 kg/人和20 kg/人,仍处在平台缓慢下降阶段,回收密度将分别增加到220kg/人、3 kg/人和5 kg/人,回收密度与消费强度比例分别达到49%、33%和25%。通过对比可知,中国未来社会报废金属回收潜力巨大,如果能加以有效政策引导,加快回收利用,可大大缓解中国战略性金属的安全保障压力。     

中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析:1995-2004

能源消费是碳排放的主要来源。随着中国经济的快速发展,能源消费的急剧增长以及以煤为主的能源结构在短期内很难改变,因此,碳排放不可避免地会出现一定幅度的增加。本文基于碳排放量的基本等式,采用对数平均权重Divisia分解法（Logarithmic mean weight Divisia method,LMD）,建立中国人均碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析了1995-2004年间,能源结构、能源效率和经济发展等因素的变化对中国人均碳排放的影响,结果显示经济发展对拉动中国人均碳排放的贡献率呈指数增长,而能源效率和能源结构对抑制中国人均碳排放的贡献率都呈倒“U”。这说明能源效率对抑制中国碳排放的作用在减弱,以煤为主的能源结构未发生根本性变化,能源效率和能源结构的抑制作用难以抵销由经济发展拉动的中国碳排放量增长。     

江苏省沿海地区经济发展与碳排放相关性研究

与能源结构和能源效率因素相比,经济发展对人均碳排放的影响最为显著.以江苏省沿海地区能源消费情况为基础,研究得出地区碳排放、人均碳排放,并且1999-2008年该地区碳排放量与人均碳排放量的增加趋势一致.选取人均GDP来代表经济增长数据,人均CO2排放代表碳排放数据,借助环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型来分析江苏省沿海地区经济发展与CO2排放之间的关系和演变态势.根据环境库兹涅茨曲线研究江苏省沿海地区经济发展与人均碳排放之间的关系,相关性研究结果表明,最优拟合模型中参数α0为0.245 7,α1为3.658 14e-5,α2为1.318 32e-8,α3为-3.298 09e-13,所以根据模型设定判断得出:1999-2008年间江苏省沿海地区人均碳排放置和人均GDP并不符合标准的环境库兹涅茨曲线(倒U型)关系,而是表现为三次方曲线模型.同时,依据人均碳排放量的变化特征,将江苏省沿海地区人均碳排放分为两个阶段:1999-2006年,人均碳排放量随着经济的增长持续增加;2006-2008年人均碳排放量随经济增加趋势变缓.     

我国能源节约战略研究

节约能源，保护环境，是全面建设小康社会、实现可持续发展的必不可少的前提条件。中国万美元GDP能耗水平是发达国家的3至11倍。节能潜力很大。其中工业部门是我国的能源消费大户。其能源消费占全国能源消费总量的比重一直保持在70％左右，其节能潜力也居第一位。2020年中国实现全面建设小康社会的目标．人均GDP是3000美元，按届时人口15亿计算，全国GDP为49500亿美元，所需要的能源总量是33亿t标准煤，万美元GDP的能耗是6．67吨标煤；人均能耗是2．13吨标煤。只要政策选择适当。我国完全可以以当初发达国家一半的能源供应实现其相应的人均经济发展目标。为此，我们需要继续建立和完善适应市场经济要求的推动能源节约与资源综合利用的新机制；加快制定与《节约能源法》配套法规，引导和规范用能行为；加快建立以企业为主体的技术创新体系。     

基于信息熵的省域内能源消费总量分配研究

能源消费总量控制是保障能源安全,积极应对气候变暖的重要手段;省域内能源消费量的合理分配,是落实国家能源消费总量控制的有效措施。提出能源消费总量分配应以公平为主、考虑区域发展权益的同时兼顾效率的原则,秉承“定基数,分增量”的思想,构建了基于信息熵的多因子混合加权分配模型,对目标年能源消费增量进行分配;选择了10个指标从经济水平、能耗水平、发展现状、产业结构及城市发展定位5个方面描述各地区的节能潜力及控制能耗量的责任,拟对能源消费总量在省内各市区的分配进行探索性研究。并以安徽省为例,对安徽省2015年能源消费总量分配到各市区进行了实证分析。结果显示,2015年安徽省17个市区能耗分配量增长率范围为1193%~5045%,能耗增幅的分配结果整体上受各市区人均GDP和人均能源消费量水平所支配,受单位工业增加值能耗和城市化率所调控     

气候变化情景下能源效率及其平等准则的研究

为适应气候变化领域国际斗争的需要,本文分析了中国能源生产消费特点、温室气体排放情景、能耗强度和温室气体排放强度及其发展趋势;在温气体限控上提出能源效率与人均温室气体累积和、与人均GDP发展水平、与技术转让相联系的准则。     

Measuring environmental degradation by using principal component analysis

The objective of the paper is to measure environmental degradation on the basis of some selected indicators by the application of a simple multivariate technique known as Principal Component Analysis. For this purpose the study considered six variables, namely, GDP per capita, fuel consumption, total fertility rate, water supply, sanitation, and electricity. However, because of unavailability of data, the variables such as technology relating to environment, waste disposal, air pollution, women/gender issues relating to environment, corruption, democracy etc. could not be considered. The results show that principal components explain about 62% of the variations in the level of environmental degradation. The variables like GDP per capita, fuel consumption, water supply and electricity played a major role in classifying the countries in terms of environmental degradation compared to the variables, sanitation and total fertility rate. The findings show that countries which have high GDP per capita, low fuel consumption, higher percentage of people having access to water supply and sanitation as well as electricity ranked higher in terms of environmental quality despite high fertility rate as shown by the spectacular example of Saudi Arabia. By contrast, those countries which have low percentage of population having access to safe water and sanitation as well as electricity, high fuel consumption and high fertility were ranked lower in terms of environmental quality despite high per capita income, as shown by the example of Angola which is placed in lowest position among the 51 selected countries. The results also show that correlation between poverty and environmental degradation is particularly acute in African countries where high population growth is acting as an exacerbating factor. The study concluded that high fertility has much impact on environmental degradation in case of poorer countries than in case of rich countries.

Threshold effects of renewable energy consumption on economic growth under energy transformation

China proposed that non-fossil energy consumption account for 20% in total energy consumption. EU increased the target of renewable energy consumption share from 27% to 35% in 2030.Energy transformation and increasing renewable energy consumption are important energy strategies for all countries at present. Then, is the impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth positive or negative? Are there any differences in the direction or magnitude of the impact among countries or regions, and what are the determinants behind them? We apply panel threshold effect model to test threshold effects of renewable energy consumption on economic growth of EU. Empirical result shows: first, the impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth is negative. Second, renewable energy consumption has significant threshold effects on economic growth. Third, now, energy consumption intensity and GDP per capita of most EU members are in the appropriate threshold regimes. In contrast, more and more EU members are in the high-subsidy group. Fourth, the average annual growth rates of renewable energy consumption showed no significant difference between high-subsidy and lowsubsidy countries from 1990 to 2014. Therefore, subsidy with high economic cost is not the onlyeffective means to increase renewable energy consumption.     

基于生态足迹的苏州市可持续发展动态研究

以苏州市为例,应用生态足迹分析法对苏州市1990~2010年生态足迹及生态承载力进行统计核算,并对苏州市可持续发展程度进行了定量研究和动态分析。研究结果表明,苏州市2010年人均生态足迹为6.48hm2,人均生态承载力为0.27hm2,人均生态赤字高达6.21hm2,远远超出了目前的生态承载力,城市生态系统处于不可持续的发展状态。通过动态分析,结果显示苏州市的生态足迹不断增大,但增长速度正在变缓,生态承载力稳中有降,万元GDP生态足迹也在下降,这表明苏州市的资源利用率不断提高。提出了苏州市需尽快进行社会经济结构调整,控制人口增长,对耕地实行严格的保护,提高能源利用效率和降低能源消耗等措施,以减少生态赤字,促进社会经济可持续发展。     

Income Growth,Urbanization, Changing Life Style and Energy Requirements in China

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the effects of changing life style and consumption demands driven by income growth and urbanization on increase of energy requirements in China, and estimate the impacts of improvement in household consumption on mitigating energy requirements towards 2020, based on input-output analysis and scenarios simulation approach. The result shows that energy requirement per capita has increased by 159% for urban residents and 147% for rural residents from 1995 to 2004. Growth in household consumption driven by income growth and urbanization may induce a successive increase in energy requirements in future. Per capita energy requirements of urban residents will increase by 240% during 2002–2015 and 330% during 2002–2020. Urbanization might lead to 0.75 billion ton of increment of energy requirements in 2020. About 45%–48% of total energy requirements in China might be a consequence of residents’ life styles and the economic activities to support consumption demands in 2020. Under low-carbon life style scenario, per capita energy requirements of urban residents may decline to 97% in 2015 and 92% in 2020 in contrast with baseline scenario. That implies that China needs to pay a great attention to developing green low-carbon life style in order to realize mitigation target towards 2020.     

The Danube and Vienna: urban resource use, transport and land use 1800–1910

In this article, we investigate the changing role of the Danube river in relation to urban resource use, transport and land use for the case of nineteenth and early twentieth century Vienna. Vienna makes a good case study due to its geographical position as a continental city and its dynamic development of population numbers and transport infrastructure in the nineteenth century. We trace the amount of energy used in the city and identify a shift from a biomass-based energy supply to the large-scale use of coal. Along with this shift went a change in the Danube??s role as transport route: while until the 1870s, the Danube was the most important freight transport route, river transport lost importance after the great Danube regulation in 1875, and the railway took over. The river was the most important route for providing fuel wood well into the nineteenth century: Vienna drew wood from remote areas situated upstream along the Danube to the West of the city. Only after the railway connection to Northern coal deposits in the 1850s could Vienna??s energy base shift to coal. Finally, we investigate how land use in the city was affected by resource consumption and the river regulation. Wood use around the city was subject to legislative protection and was only little affected by Vienna??s resource demand. On the other hand, the Danube river regulation heavily impacted urban land use by supplying new areas suitable for settlement expansion.     

Regional specialization and market integration: agroecosystem energy transitions in Upper Austria

We investigate agroecosystem energy flows in two Upper Austrian regions, the lowland region Sankt Florian and the prealpine region Grünburg, at five time points between 1830 and 2000. Energetic agroecosystem productivity (energy contents of crops, livestock products, and wood per unit area) is compared to different types of energy inputs, i.e., external inputs from society (labor, industrial inputs, and external biomass inputs) and biomass reused from the local agroecosystem (feed, litter, and seeds). Energy transfers between different compartments of the agroecosystem (agricultural land, forest, and livestock) are also quantified. This allows for delineating an agroecosystem energy transition: In the first stage of this transition, i.e., in the nineteenth century, agroecosystem productivity was low (final produce ranged between 14 and 27 GJ/ha/yr), and local biomass reused made up 97% of total energy inputs in both regions (25–61 GJ/ha/yr). In this period, agroecosystem productivity increase was achieved primarily through more recycling of energy flows within the agroecosystems. In the second stage of the agroecosystem energy transition, i.e., after World War II, external energy inputs increased by factors 2.5 (Sankt Florian) and 5.0 (Grünburg), partly replacing local energy transfers. Final produce per area increased by factors 6.1 (Sankt Florian) and 2.9 (Grünburg). The difference in the resulting energy returns on investment (EROI) owes to regional specialization on cropping versus livestock rearing and to increasing market integration. Our results suggest that sustainable land-use intensification may benefit from some regional specialization harnessing local production potentials based on a mix of local and external inputs.

     

我国城市人居环境改善与能源消费关系研究

随着我国经济建设水平和综合国力的提高,近20年来人居环境的改善有目共睹。但与此同时能源消耗和温室气体排放增加是个不容回避的问题。本文选择城市人均住宅建筑面积、人均拥有道路面积、人均公园绿地面积三个指标反映我国城市人居环境质量,研究了我国城市人居环境改善和能源消费之间的变化关系。通过与发达国家的对比,发现我国人居环境建设并没有像发达国家那样带来人均生活能源消费的同幅增长,而是出现了"喇叭口"现象,两个指标之间最大相差2.4倍,但也存在一个适度的节能居住条件,中国目前已经偏离了这个最优点并处于耗能的上升期。德国与我国类似,在户均住房面积和人均能源消费量之间也存在一种类似U型曲线关系,但上升阶段明显比我国更陡。虽然与德国、日本、美国相比我国在人均能源消费上最少,但从总量和长期趋势来看,中国仍面临着重重挑战,必须通过使用节能技术和新能源来降低能耗、减少二氧化碳排放,营造节能又宜居的城市人居环境。     

中国北方农牧区生存性碳排放特征与实证

以中国北方农牧区的内蒙古通辽地区为例,结合实地问卷调查,研究农牧民家庭生存性碳排放特征。研究提出了农牧民家庭生存碳排放评估指标体系,其中能源产品和非能源产品成为农牧民家庭生存性碳排放的两大来源。计算了农牧民人均能源消费碳排放量及食物消费碳排放量。研究结果表明:在能源方面,农牧民家庭生存性碳排放构成呈能源消费主导型,2008年,该区人均生存性碳排放总量为1 040.36 kg,其中矿物燃料、用电消费碳排放分别占总生存性碳排放的45.53%和30%;受传统生活方式影响,家庭用能结构粗放,以矿物化石能及一次生物质能为主,电能使用比例相对较低。在食物方面,农牧民家庭食物消费结构渐趋低碳化,2008年和2009年人均食物消费总碳排放量分别为78.42 kg和76.67 kg,以粮食消费占主导,占总消费量的60%;2009年与2008年比较,含碳量较高的粮食和食用油消费分别降低4%和3.8%。该区农牧民人均食物消费碳排放量只是美国的39.2%,英国的49.6%,日本的72%,属基本生存线碳排放。     

云南省能源消费及二氧化碳排放分析

根据云南省能源消费量,计算了由能源消费产生的CO2排放量及单位GDP碳排放强度。结果表明:近10年来,随着社会经济的快速发展,云南省能源消费及能源消费导致的CO2排放总量也呈现出显著上升的趋势。云南的碳排放强度高于全国平均水平,但人均碳排放量低于全国平均水平。以工业为主的第二产业是能源消费及碳排放的主体,其碳排放占总量的75%。     

The growing water imprint of Athens (Greece) throughout history

Throughout its long history from the fifth century B.C. until today, the city of Athens managed to satisfy a gradually increasing urban demand for water supply with reserves obtained by the diversion of freshwater. At first, the water was displaced from the adjacent territories and with time from more distant basins, extending the water imprint of the city on its hinterland. This article traces the history of the development of successive water supply infrastructures, which has resulted in the current situation where Athens controls a significant amount of the water reserves of two (in a total of fourteen) Greek River Basin Districts (Attica and Western Sterea Ellada). With the exception of a short period of drought (1989?C1993), no serious effort has ever been made by the decision makers to slow down the increase of urban per capita consumption in the city. The water imprint of Athens is also linked to the disposal of wastewater in the coastal waters of the Saronic Gulf, since wastewater treatment has been established from 1985 onwards. New lines of thinking are suggested for meeting the needs of the still-growing city of Athens without further increasing its water imprint.     

Agricultural GHG emission and calorie intake nexus among different socioeconomic households of rural eastern India

A study was conducted to examine the interrelationships among socioeconomic factors, household consumption patterns, calorie intake and greenhouse gas emissions factors in rural eastern India based on household survey data. Findings indicated that higher monthly per capita incomes (12.1–80.1$) were associated with greater average calorie intakes (2021–2525 kcal d^?1). As estimated by the FEEDME model, in total 17.2% of the population was calorie malnourished with a regional disparity of 29.4–18.2% malnourishment. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were calculated only on the basis of crop and livestock production and consumption. Rice accounted for the highest share of total GHG emissions, on average 82.6% on a production basis, which varied from 58.1% to 94.9% in regional basis. Rice contributed the greatest share (~?65% and 66.2%) in terms of both calories and GHG emissions (CO₂ eq y^?1), respectively, on a consumption basis. We conclude that extensive rice farming and increasing animal product consumption are dominant factors in the higher carbon footprint in this region and are likely to further increase with increase in per capita income. This study provides useful information to help for better crop planning and for fine-tuning food access policy, to reduce carbon footprint and calorie malnutrition.