城市应急避难场所层次布局研究(Ⅱ)——三级层次选址模型

分析应急避难场所层次选址的目标因素:建设成本和避难效果,提出总的移动距离最短和建设成本最小两类选址目标,立足城市发展程度差异和现状应急避难场所建设情况分析,将应急避难场所选址类型分为规划性选址、老城新选址、补充性选址三种。依据应急避难场所的三级层次划分,以及单一流、嵌套、空间非匹配的层次特点,分别建立了应急避难场所的规划性选址、老城新选址、补充性选址共8个三级层次选址模型,并通过模拟实验对模型的效果进行了检验。     

考虑场所吸引度的片区震后固定避难空间优化

为改善城市老旧片区震后中长期避难空间，提高固定避难效益，针对老旧片区避难效率低、疏散无序性突出和避难资源分配失衡等问题。考虑固定避难阶段避难场所与疏散人员的吸引关系，提出了基于断裂点理论的固定避难场所责任区域划分方法，并以避难场所吸引度为切入点提出优化方案，应用复杂网络理论构建片区疏散网络进行综合分析。研究结果表明：对片区固定避难空间优化后，片区整体疏散效率得到明显提升，整体疏散时长最优可至43 min;根据避难吸引度进一步优化场所责任范围可实现片区避难资源供需均衡，片区整体固定避难效益得到有效提高。     

应急避难场所选址最大准备度覆盖模型及其算法

应急避难场所的选址是应急规划的关键职能。当前的应急规划往往是依据现有的公园、绿地、广场等来选择应急避难场所,难以满足实际应急疏散的需要。目前不少学者在最大覆盖选址模型的基础上提出了应急设施选址问题的相关模型。将准备度指标引入最大覆盖应急设施选址问题,综合考虑需求量、与设施的距离和距离决定的权重,对每个社区的应急服务覆盖程度进行量化,从而保证将应急避难场所设置在合理的位置。为了求解该模型,构建了多智能体进化算法。案例研究表明,该算法可以高效地求解最大准备度覆盖模型。     

城市防灾设施建设供应链管理模式与战略

城市防灾设施建设是一项复杂的系统工程,是典型的上下游供应链长、协调关系多、投资周期长、不确定性和风险程度高的项目.应用供应链管理的理论,结合我国城市防灾设施建设项目的特点,分析了城市防灾设施建设供应链管理的概念与意义,提出了城市防灾设施建设供应链管理的基本模式和特征,并针对我国城市防灾设施建设管理的现状,阐述了我国城市防灾设施建设中政府、有关企业与社会机构等方面实施供应链管理的战略任务.     

灾害避难行为的模拟模型研究(Ⅲ)--双人单房情况的避难模拟

研究突发性灾害下的避难行为,有利于提高公众的防灾减灾意识和灾害抵御能力,在当前城市防灾减灾中具有重要的理论和现实意义.利用计算机模拟仿真试验可以多次重复、简单易行的优点,在对现有的计算机仿真模型进行改进的基础上,开展了不可视环境下双人单房任意方向下的灾害避难行为仿真模拟研究.结果表明,在双人单房的情况下,两人分头避难模式优于两人共同避难模式;同时,进一步的扩展模拟还表明,两人在分头避难又相遇后,进行正确交流也是十分有益的,这往往可以缩短发现避难出口的时间.     

城镇防灾避难场所规划研究

城镇防灾避难场所是城镇灾后应急避难、救援、恢复重建的重要组成部分,也是城镇平时功能的主要构成部分。首先按照应对灾害的主要类型,将避难场所分为气象型避难场所和地质型避难场所,相对应的为建筑型避难场所与场地型避难场所。继而与城市规划中的用地性质相关联,从防灾避难的角度将城镇用地划分为"靶区""防灾避难据点"与"防灾避难通道"。总结城镇防灾避难空间结构的组成要素、组构原则与组成方式,并以三种模式进行模型化构建。进而概括了城镇防灾避难场所的规划要点、规划内容与技术路线,并以深圳防灾避难场所规划加以佐证。得出了结论:防灾避难场所是城镇整体空间不可分割的一部分;城镇防灾避难空间规划应从城镇整体空间结构出发,合理规划防灾避难场所与防灾避难通道,优化用地功能与规模,提升城镇整体的防灾避难能力。     

关于上海市防灾公园规划与建设的探讨

汶川地震暴露出目前我国城市公园建设普遍存在的一个重要问题,就是其防灾功能不强。城市公园应是防灾公园。防灾公园是起广域防灾据点、避难场所作用的城市公园和缓冲绿地,应符合城市防灾规划要求。从防灾公园的定义出发,本文重点阐述了防灾公园的3个特点:规模、构造和设施;通过每平方公里公园数量、每万人公园数量、人均公园面积及公园占市区面积比例等多项关键指标,对上海市防灾公园的现状进行了分析,指出了存在的主要问题,并对上海市防灾公园的规划、建设提出了2点建议,一是完善防灾绿化网格,二是逐步实现现有城市公园向防灾公园的转型。     

人防工程确认为地震应急避难场所的可行性和必要性

地震应急避难场所是为应对地震等突发事件，经规划、建设，具有应急避难生活服务设施，可供居民紧急疏散、临时生活的安全场所。其场址通常选在公园、绿地、广场、体育场馆等处，与其合二为一。     

基于GIS的灾害疏散模拟及救援调度

台风是我国东南沿海各省夏秋季中经常遭遇的自然灾害。在台风登陆之前，根据气象部门对台风发生过程及发展趋势的分析，预测防御范围，进行必要的应急疏散与救援调度，可以有效地减少人员伤亡和财产损失。研究了城市在风灾情况下进行疏散的模拟方法。将微观离散模型和宏观交通流模型相结合，采用元胞自动机原理和LW宏观交通流理论，建立了城市区域不同类型的疏散模型和应急服务规划模型，进行了人员和车辆的疏散模拟与分析，并在此基础上研制了基于GIS的灾害疏散模拟及救援调度系统，该系统可对城市防灾减灾规划和灾时应急预案的制定提供决策支持。     

加强国土规划建设与城市防灾的协同性分析

我国经济持续发展主要体现之一就是大规模的基础工程、道路交通和城市建设。近年来,各种灾害频繁发生,造成了巨大的人身和财产损失,也给"国土规划建设"和"城市防灾规划"工作提出了更迫切更严峻的挑战。我国拥有广大面积的洪泛区[2],洪灾是制约我国社会和经济可持续发展的重要因素;我国又是淡水资源极度缺乏的国家,雨水是淡水,应变灾害为资源。调整区域土地的使用性质和格局,国土规划建设是今后一个时期内科学发展、可持续发展的基础,做好国土规划建设刻不容缓。把国土规划建设结合其它城市灾害提出具体的措施,整体提高我国城市防灾规划水平,以达到节约投入,节省时间,根治水患、长期受益的目的。     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

The cultural politics of mining and natural disaster in Indonesia: by fire and sword

Natural disasters are inevitably the outcome of cultural agonisms. The cultural politics of natural disasters are shaped by competing claims and conceptions of ‘nature’. Recent disasters in Indonesia are directly linked to these contending conceptions and the ways in which different social groups imagine risk and reward. The Sidoarjo volcanic mudflow of 2006 represents a volatile and violent exemplar of contending cultural and economic claims. Like other disasters in Indonesia and elsewhere in the developing world, this ‘natural’ disaster is characterised by differing conceptions of ‘nature’ as cultural tradition, divine force, and natural resource. A new extractive project in East Java is exhibiting similar economic and cultural agonisms, particularly around the notion of development, environment, self‐determination, and tradition. This paper examines the ‘disputes over meaning’ associated with natural disasters in contemporary societies, and the ways in which they are related to human culture, social organisation, and hierarchical systems of violence.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

火灾场景中玻璃破裂行为研究综述

建筑物在火场中的结构响应问题中,门窗玻璃在火场中的热响应特性及破裂脱落是影响火灾发展的重要因素之一。通过事故案例分析了火灾场景中玻璃破裂脱落的危害性,指出了研究火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂脱落的意义,并对目前火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂过程和主要形态、玻璃的破裂机理和判据等的研究现状进行了详细的分析,总结了目前实验和计算机模拟的最新研究进展和不足,为今后进一步开展玻璃受热破裂脱落研究提出了若干建议。     

中国内陆自然环境的干旱化与未来趋势

根据中国内陆陕西、甘肃部分地区５０９ａ旱涝资料和主要测站气象、水文实测数据,应用Ｗｏｒｄ９７图形处理系统,证明在５２６ａ序列中目前处在１１ａ、５０ａ滑动的干旱期。近４６ａ气温上升了０．３℃,年降水减少了８０ｍｍ,径流量减少了０．７８％,出现了明显的干旱化,环境变化趋势不容乐观。     

美国的洪泛平原管理

美国开展洪泛平原管理已有约40年历史，洪水保险计划是美国泛平原管理的主要措施。了解并借鉴他们的思路与具体策略，将有助于我国洪泛平原管理政策的制定。