Changes in weather and climate extremes: State of knowledge relevant to air and water quality in the United States

Air and water quality are impacted by extreme weather and climate events on time scales ranging from minutes to many months. This review paper discusses the state of knowledge of how and why extreme events are changing and are projected to change in the future. These events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, strong extratropical cyclones such as nor'easters, heavy rain, and major snowfalls. Some of these events, such as heat waves, are projected to increase, while others, with cold waves being a good example, will decrease in intensity in our warming world. Each extreme's impact on air or water quality can be complex and can even vary over the course of the event.

Implications:

Because extreme weather and climate events impact air and water quality, understanding how the various extremes are changing and are projected to change in the future has ramifications on air and water quality management.     

Long-term dust aerosol production from natural sources in Iceland

Iceland is a volcanic island in the North Atlantic Ocean with maritime climate. In spite of moist climate, large areas are with limited vegetation cover where >40% of Iceland is classified with considerable to very severe erosion and 21% of Iceland is volcanic sandy deserts. Not only do natural emissions from these sources influenced by strong winds affect regional air quality in Iceland (“Reykjavik haze”), but dust particles are transported over the Atlantic ocean and Arctic Ocean >1000 km at times. The aim of this paper is to place Icelandic dust production area into international perspective, present long-term frequency of dust storm events in northeast Iceland, and estimate dust aerosol concentrations during reported dust events.

Meteorological observations with dust presence codes and related visibility were used to identify the frequency and the long-term changes in dust production in northeast Iceland. There were annually 16.4 days on average with reported dust observations on weather stations within the northeastern erosion area, indicating extreme dust plume activity and erosion within the northeastern deserts, even though the area is covered with snow during the major part of winter. During the 2000s the highest occurrence of dust events in six decades was reported. We have measured saltation and Aeolian transport during dust/volcanic ash storms in Iceland, which give some of the most intense wind erosion events ever measured.

Icelandic dust affects the ecosystems over much of Iceland and causes regional haze. It is likely to affect the ecosystems of the oceans around Iceland, and it brings dust that lowers the albedo of the Icelandic glaciers, increasing melt-off due to global warming. The study indicates that Icelandic dust may contribute to the Arctic air pollution.

Implications: Long-term records of meteorological dust observations from Northeast Iceland indicate the frequency of dust events from Icelandic deserts. The research involves a 60-year period and provides a unique perspective of the dust aerosol production from natural sources in the sub-Arctic Iceland. The amounts are staggering, and with this paper, it is clear that Icelandic dust sources need to be considered among major global dust sources. This paper presents the dust events directly affecting the air quality in the Arctic region.     

Updated methods for assessing the impacts of nearby gas drilling and production on neighborhood air quality and human health

An explosive growth in natural gas production within the last decade has fueled concern over the public health impacts of air pollutant emissions from oil and gas sites in the Barnett and Eagle Ford shale regions of Texas. Commonly acknowledged sources of uncertainty are the lack of sustained monitoring of ambient concentrations of pollutants associated with gas mining, poor quantification of their emissions, and inability to correlate health symptoms with specific emission events. These uncertainties are best addressed not by conventional monitoring and modeling technology, but by increasingly available advanced techniques for real-time mobile monitoring, microscale modeling and source attribution, and real-time broadcasting of air quality and human health data over the World Wide Web. The combination of contemporary scientific and social media approaches can be used to develop a strategy to detect and quantify emission events from oil and gas facilities, alert nearby residents of these events, and collect associated human health data, all in real time or near-real time. The various technical elements of this strategy are demonstrated based on the results of past, current, and planned future monitoring studies in the Barnett and Eagle Ford shale regions.

Implications: Resources should not be invested in expanding the conventional air quality monitoring network in the vicinity of oil and gas exploration and production sites. Rather, more contemporary monitoring and data analysis techniques should take the place of older methods to better protect the health of nearby residents and maintain the integrity of the surrounding environment.     

Air quality and health benefits from potential coal power plant closures in Texas

As power production from renewable energy and natural gas grows, closures of some coal-fired power plants in Texas become increasingly likely. In this study, the potential effects of such closures on air quality and human health were analyzed by linking a regional photochemical model with a health impacts assessment tool. The impacts varied significantly across 13 of the state’s largest coal-fired power plants, sometimes by more than an order of magnitude, even after normalizing by generation. While some power plants had negligible impacts on concentrations at important monitors, average impacts up to 0.5 parts per billion (ppb) and 0.2 µg/m³ and maximum impacts up to 3.3 ppb and 0.9 µg/m³ were seen for ozone and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), respectively. Individual power plants impacted average visibility by up to 0.25 deciviews in Class I Areas. Health impacts arose mostly from PM_2.5 and were an order of magnitude higher for plants that lack scrubbers for SO₂. Rankings of health impacts were largely consistent across the base model results and two reduced form models. Carbon dioxide emissions were relatively uniform, ranging from 1.00 to 1.26 short tons/MWh, and can be monetized based on a social cost of carbon. Despite all of these unpaid externalities, estimated direct costs of each power plant exceeded wholesale power prices in 2016.

Implications: While their CO₂ emission rates are fairly similar, sharply different NO_x and SO₂ emission rates and spatial factors cause coal-fired power plants to vary by an order of magnitude in their impacts on ozone, particulate matter, and associated health and visibility outcomes. On a monetized basis, the air pollution health impacts often exceed the value of the electricity generated and are of similar magnitude to climate impacts. This suggests that both air pollution and climate should be considered if externalities are used to inform decision making about power-plant dispatch and retirement.     

Air quality co-benefits of subnational carbon policies

To mitigate climate change, governments ranging from city to multi-national have adopted greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. While the location of GHG reductions does not affect their climate benefits, it can impact human health benefits associated with co-emitted pollutants. Here, an advanced modeling framework is used to explore how subnational level GHG targets influence air pollutant co-benefits from ground level ozone and fine particulate matter. Two carbon policy scenarios are analyzed, each reducing the same total amount of GHG emissions in the Northeast US: an economy-wide Cap and Trade (CAT) program reducing emissions from all sectors of the economy, and a Clean Energy Standard (CES) reducing emissions from the electricity sector only. Results suggest that a regional CES policy will cost about 10 times more than a CAT policy. Despite having the same regional targets in the Northeast, carbon leakage to non-capped regions varies between policies. Consequently, a regional CAT policy will result in national carbon reductions that are over six times greater than the carbon reduced by the CES in 2030. Monetized regional human health benefits of the CAT and CES policies are 844% and 185% of the costs of each policy, respectively. Benefits for both policies are thus estimated to exceed their costs in the Northeast US. The estimated value of human health co-benefits associated with air pollution reductions for the CES scenario is two times that of the CAT scenario.

Implications: In this research, an advanced modeling framework is used to determine the potential impacts of regional carbon policies on air pollution co-benefits associated with ground level ozone and fine particulate matter. Study results show that spatially heterogeneous GHG policies have the potential to create areas of air pollution dis-benefit. It is also shown that monetized human health benefits within the area covered by policy may be larger than the model estimated cost of the policy. These findings are of particular interest both as U.S. states work to develop plans to meet state-level carbon emissions reduction targets set by the EPA through the Clean Power Plan, and in the absence of comprehensive national carbon policy.     

Freight shipment modal split and its environmental impacts: An exploratory study

Freight transportation activities are responsible for a large share of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. Various freight transportation modes have significantly different impacts on air quality and environmental sustainability, and this highlights the need for a better understanding of interregional freight shipment mode choices. This paper develops a binomial logit market share model to predict interregional freight modal share between truck and rail as a function of freight and shipment characteristics. This model can be used to estimate the impacts of various factors, such as oil price, on shippers’ mode choice decisions. A set of multiyear freight and geographical information databases was integrated to construct regression models for typical freight commodities. The atmospheric impact levels incurred by different freight modal choice decisions are analyzed to provide insights on the relationship among freight modal split, oil price change, and air quality.

Implications:

Freight transportation has become a major source of energy consumption and air pollution, and emissions rates vary significantly across different modes. Understanding freight shipment mode choice under various economic and engineering factors will help assess the environmental impacts of freight shipment systems at the national level. This paper develops a binomial logit model for two dominating modes (truck and rail) and shows how this model is incorporated into an environmental impact analysis. The framework will be useful to policy makers to assess the impacts of freight movements on air quality and public health and to mitigate those adverse impacts.     

BTEX exposures in an area impacted by industrial and mobile sources: Source attribution and impact of averaging time

The impacts of emissions plumes from major industrial sources on black carbon (BC) and BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylene isomers) exposures in communities located >10 km from the industrial source areas were identified with a combination of stationary measurements, source identification using positive matrix factorization (PMF), and dispersion modeling. The industrial emissions create multihour plume events of BC and BTEX at the measurement sites. PMF source apportionment, along with wind patterns, indicates that the observed pollutant plumes are the result of transport of industrial emissions under conditions of low boundary layer height. PMF indicates that industrial emissions contribute >50% of outdoor exposures of BC and BTEX species at the receptor sites. Dispersion modeling of BTEX emissions from known industrial sources predicts numerous overnight plumes and overall qualitative agreement with PMF analysis, but predicts industrial impacts at the measurement sites a factor of 10 lower than PMF. Nonetheless, exposures associated with pollutant plumes occur mostly at night, when residents are expected to be home but are perhaps unaware of the elevated exposure. Averaging data samples over long times typical of public health interventions (e.g., weekly or biweekly passive sampling) misapportions the exposure, reducing the impact of industrial plumes at the expense of traffic emissions, because the longer samples cannot resolve subdaily plumes. Suggestions are made for ways for future distributed pollutant mapping or intervention studies to incorporate high time resolution tools to better understand the potential impacts of industrial plumes.

Implications: Emissions from industrial or other stationary sources can dominate air toxics exposures in communities both near the source and in downwind areas in the form of multihour plume events. Common measurement strategies that use highly aggregated samples, such as weekly or biweekly averages, are insensitive to such plume events and can lead to significant under apportionment of exposures from these sources.     

Public health and components of particulate matter: The changing assessment of black carbon

In 2012, the WHO classified diesel emissions as carcinogenic, and its European branch suggested creating a public health standard for airborne black carbon (BC). In 2011, EU researchers found that life expectancy could be extended four to nine times by reducing a unit of BC, vs reducing a unit of PM_2.5. Only recently could such determinations be made. Steady improvements in research methodologies now enable such judgments.

In this Critical Review, we survey epidemiological and toxicological literature regarding carbonaceous combustion emissions, as research methodologies improved over time. Initially, we focus on studies of BC, diesel, and traffic emissions in the Western countries (where daily urban BC emissions are mainly from diesels). We examine effects of other carbonaceous emissions, e.g., residential burning of biomass and coal without controls, mainly in developing countries.

Throughout the 1990s, air pollution epidemiology studies rarely included species not routinely monitored. As additional PM_2.5. chemical species, including carbonaceous species, became more widely available after 1999, they were gradually included in epidemiological studies. Pollutant species concentrations which more accurately reflected subject exposure also improved models.

Natural “interventions” - reductions in emissions concurrent with fuel changes or increased combustion efficiency; introduction of ventilation in highway tunnels; implementation of electronic toll payment systems – demonstrated health benefits of reducing specific carbon emissions. Toxicology studies provided plausible biological mechanisms by which different PM species, e.g., carbonaceous species, may cause harm, aiding interpretation of epidemiological studies.

Our review finds that BC from various sources appears to be causally involved in all-cause, lung cancer, and cardiovascular mortality, morbidity, and perhaps adverse birth and nervous system effects. We recommend that the U.S. EPA rubric for judging possible causality of PM_2.5. mass concentrations, be used to assess which PM_2.5. species are most harmful to public health.

Implications: Black carbon (BC) and correlated co-emissions appear causally related with all-cause, cardiovascular, and lung cancer mortality, and perhaps with adverse birth outcomes and central nervous system effects. Such findings are recent, since widespread monitoring for BC is also recent. Helpful epidemiological advances (using many health relevant PM_2.5 species in models; using better measurements of subject exposure) have also occurred. “Natural intervention” studies also demonstrate harm from partly combusted carbonaceous emissions. Toxicology studies consistently find biological mechanisms explaining how such emissions can cause these adverse outcomes. A consistent mechanism for judging causality for different PM_2.5 species is suggested.

A list of acronyms will be found at the end of the article.     

Impact of an educational program on knowledge and practice of health care staff toward pharmaceutical waste management in Gaza,Palestine

In health care facilities, pharmaceutical waste is generally discharged down the drain or sent to landfill. Poor knowledge about their potential downstream impacts may be a primary factor for improper disposal behavior. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of an intervention program on knowledge and practice of health care staff regarding pharmaceutical waste management. The study was designed as a pre/posttest intervention study. Total sample size was 530 in the pre-intervention phase, and then a subsample of 69 individuals was selected for the intervention and the post-intervention phases. Paired-sample t test was used to assess the difference between pretest and follow-up test results. A statistically significant improvement in knowledge and practice was achieved (P < 0.001). Poor knowledge and poor practice levels (scores <50%) were found to improve to satisfactory levels (scores ≥75%). Therefore, educational programs could be considered as an effective tool for changing health care staff practice in pharmaceutical waste management.

Implications: In health care facilities, pharmaceutical waste is generally discharged down the drain or sent to landfill. A lack of knowledge about the potential impacts of this type of waste may be a leading factor in improper disposal behavior. Following an educational program, statistically significant improvement in knowledge and practice of health care staff as regards to pharmaceutical waste management (PWM) was achieved. It is thus recommended that authorities implement training-of-trainers (TOT) programs to educate health care staff on PWM and organize refreshment workshops regularly.     

The study on biomass fraction estimate methodology of municipal solid waste incinerator in Korea

In Korea, the amount of greenhouse gases released due to waste materials was 14,800,000 t CO₂eq in 2012, which increased from 5,000,000 t CO₂eq in 2010. This included the amount released due to incineration, which has gradually increased since 2010. Incineration was found to be the biggest contributor to greenhouse gases, with 7,400,000 t CO₂eq released in 2012. Therefore, with regards to the trading of greenhouse gases emissions initiated in 2015 and the writing of the national inventory report, it is important to increase the reliability of the measurements related to the incineration of waste materials.

This research explored methods for estimating the biomass fraction at Korean MSW incinerator facilities and compared the biomass fractions obtained with the different biomass fraction estimation methods. The biomass fraction was estimated by the method using default values of fossil carbon fraction suggested by IPCC, the method using the solid waste composition, and the method using incinerator flue gas.

The highest biomass fractions in Korean municipal solid waste incinerator facilities were estimated by the IPCC Default method, followed by the MSW analysis method and the Flue gas analysis method. Therefore, the difference in the biomass fraction estimate was the greatest between the IPCC Default and the Flue gas analysis methods. The difference between the MSW analysis and the flue gas analysis methods was smaller than the difference with IPCC Default method. This suggested that the use of the IPCC default method cannot reflect the characteristics of Korean waste incinerator facilities and Korean MSW.

Implications: Incineration is one of most effective methods for disposal of municipal solid waste (MSW). This paper investigates the applicability of using biomass content to estimate the amount of CO₂ released, and compares the biomass contents determined by different methods in order to establish a method for estimating biomass in the MSW incinerator facilities of Korea. After analyzing the biomass contents of the collected solid waste samples and the flue gas samples, the results were compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method, and it seems that to calculate the biomass fraction it is better to use the flue gas analysis method than the IPCC method. It is valuable to design and operate a real new incineration power plant, especially for the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions.     

Impacts of prescribed fires and benefits from their reduction for air quality,health, and visibility in the Pacific Northwest of the United States

Using a WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ modeling framework, we investigate the impacts of smoke from prescribed fires on model performance, regional and loc al air quality, health impacts, and visibility in protected natural environments using three different prescribed fire emission scenarios: 100% fire, no fire, and 30% fire. The 30% fire case reflects a 70% reduction in fire activities due to harvesting of logging residues for use as a feedstock for a potential aviation biofuel supply chain. Overall model performance improves for several performance metrics when fire emissions are included, especially for organic carbon, irrespective of the model goals and criteria used. This effect on model performance is more pronounced for the rural and remote IMPROVE sites for organic carbon and total PM_2.5. A reduction in prescribed fire emissions (30% fire case) results in significant improvement in air quality in areas in western Oregon, northern Idaho, and western Montana, where most prescribed fires occur. Prescribed burning contributes to visibility impairment, and a relatively large portion of protected class I areas will benefit from a reduced emission scenario. For the haziest 20% days, prescribed burning is an important source of visibility impairment, and approximately 50% of IMPROVE sites in the model domain show a significant improvement in visibility for the reduced fire case. Using BenMAP, a health impact assessment tool, we show that several hundred additional deaths, several thousand upper and lower respiratory symptom cases, several hundred bronchitis cases, and more than 35,000 workday losses can be attributed to prescribed fires, and these health impacts decrease by 25–30% when a 30% fire emission scenario is considered.

Implications: This study assesses the potential regional and local air quality, public health, and visibility impacts from prescribed burning activities, as well as benefits that can be achieved by a potential reduction in emissions for a scenario where biomass is harvested for conversion to biofuel. As prescribed burning activities become more frequent, they can be more detrimental for air quality and health. Forest residue-based biofuel industry can be source of cleaner fuel with co-benefits of improved air quality, reduction in health impacts, and improved visibility.     

Ozone exposure and pulmonary effects in panel and human clinical studies: Considerations for design and interpretation

A wealth of literature exists regarding the pulmonary effects of ozone, a photochemical pollutant produced by the reaction of nitrogen oxide and volatile organic precursors in the presence of sunlight. This paper focuses on epidemiological panel studies and human clinical studies of ozone exposure, and discusses issues specific to this pollutant that may influence study design and interpretation as well as other, broader considerations relevant to ozone-health research. The issues are discussed using examples drawn from the wider literature. The recent panel and clinical literature is also reviewed. Health outcomes considered include lung function, symptoms, and pulmonary inflammation. Issues discussed include adversity, reversibility, adaptation, variability in ozone exposure metric used and health outcomes evaluated, co-pollutants in panel studies, influence of temperature in panel studies, and multiple comparisons. Improvements in and standardization of panel study approaches are recommended to facilitate comparisons between studies as well as meta-analyses. Additional clinical studies at or near the current National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 70 ppb are recommended, as are clinical studies in sensitive subpopulations such as asthmatics.

Implications: The pulmonary health impacts of ozone exposure have been well documented using both epidemiological and chamber study designs. However, there are a number of specific methodological and related issues that should be considered when interpreting the results of these studies and planning additional research, including the standardization of exposure and health metrics to facilitate comparisons among studies.     

Synthesis of Harvard Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Center studies on traffic-related particulate pollution and cardiovascular outcomes in the Greater Boston Area

The association between particulate pollution and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality is well established. While the cardiovascular effects of nationally regulated criteria pollutants (e.g., fine particulate matter [PM_2.5] and nitrogen dioxide) have been well documented, there are fewer studies on particulate pollutants that are more specific for traffic, such as black carbon (BC) and particle number (PN). In this paper, we synthesized studies conducted in the Greater Boston Area on cardiovascular health effects of traffic exposure, specifically defined by BC or PN exposure or proximity to major roadways. Large cohort studies demonstrate that exposure to traffic-related particles adversely affect cardiac autonomic function, increase systemic cytokine-mediated inflammation and pro-thrombotic activity, and elevate the risk of hypertension and ischemic stroke. Key patterns emerged when directly comparing studies with overlapping exposure metrics and population cohorts. Most notably, cardiovascular risk estimates of PN and BC exposures were larger in magnitude or more often statistically significant compared to those of PM_2.5 exposures. Across multiple exposure metrics (e.g., short-term vs. long-term; observed vs. modeled) and different population cohorts (e.g., elderly, individuals with co-morbidities, young healthy individuals), there is compelling evidence that BC and PN represent traffic-related particles that are especially harmful to cardiovascular health. Further research is needed to validate these findings in other geographic locations, characterize exposure errors associated with using monitored and modeled traffic pollutant levels, and elucidate pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the cardiovascular effects of traffic-related particulate pollutants.

Implications: Traffic emissions are an important source of particles harmful to cardiovascular health. Traffic-related particles, specifically BC and PN, adversely affect cardiac autonomic function, increase systemic inflammation and thrombotic activity, elevate BP, and increase the risk of ischemic stroke. There is evidence that BC and PN are associated with greater cardiovascular risk compared to PM_2.5. Further research is needed to elucidate other health effects of traffic-related particles and assess the feasibility of regulating BC and PN or their regional and local sources.     

Spatial PM2.5 mobile source impacts using a calibrated indicator method

Motor vehicles are major sources of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), and the PM_2.5 from mobile vehicles is associated with adverse health effects. Traditional methods for estimating source impacts that employ receptor models are limited by the availability of observational data. To better estimate temporally and spatially resolved mobile source impacts on PM_2.5, we developed an approach based on a method that uses elemental carbon (EC), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) measurements as an indicator of mobile source impacts. We extended the original integrated mobile source indicator (IMSI) method in three aspects. First, we generated spatially resolved indicators using 24-hr average concentrations of EC, CO, and NO_x estimated at 4 km resolution by applying a method developed to fuse chemical transport model (Community Multiscale Air Quality Model [CMAQ]) simulations and observations. Second, we used spatially resolved emissions instead of county-level emissions in the IMSI formulation. Third, we spatially calibrated the unitless indicators to annually-averaged mobile source impacts estimated by the receptor model Chemical Mass Balance (CMB). Daily total mobile source impacts on PM_2.5, as well as separate gasoline and diesel vehicle impacts, were estimated at 12 km resolution from 2002 to 2008 and 4 km resolution from 2008 to 2010 for Georgia. The total mobile and separate vehicle source impacts compared well with daily CMB results, with high temporal correlation (e.g., R ranges from 0.59 to 0.88 for total mobile sources with 4 km resolution at nine locations). The total mobile source impacts had higher correlation and lower error than the separate gasoline and diesel sources when compared with observation-based CMB estimates. Overall, the enhanced approach provides spatially resolved mobile source impacts that are similar to observation-based estimates and can be used to improve assessment of health effects.

Implications: An approach is developed based on an integrated mobile source indicator method to estimate spatiotemporal PM_2.5 mobile source impacts. The approach employs three air pollutant concentration fields that are readily simulated at 4 and 12 km resolutions, and is calibrated using PM_2.5 source apportionment modeling results to generate daily mobile source impacts in the state of Georgia. The estimated source impacts can be used in investigations of traffic pollution and health.     

Ambient air concentrations exceeded health-based standards for fine particulate matter and benzene during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill is considered one of the largest marine oil spills in the history of the United States. Air emissions associated with the oil spill caused concern among residents of Southeast Louisiana. The purpose of this study was to assess ambient concentrations of benzene (n=3,887) and fine particulate matter (n=102,682) during the oil spill and to evaluate potential exposure disparities in the region. Benzene and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations in the targeted parishes were generally higher following the oil spill, as expected. Benzene concentrations reached 2 to 19 times higher than background, and daily exceedances of PM2.5 were 10 to 45 times higher than background. Both benzene and PM2.5 concentrations were considered high enough to exceed public health criteria, with measurable exposure disparities in the coastal areas closer to the spill and clean-up activities. These findings raise questions about public disclosure of environmental health risks associated with the oil spill. The findings also provide a science-based rationale for establishing health-based action levels in future disasters.

Implications: Benzene and particulate matter monitoring during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill revealed that ambient air quality was a likely threat to public health and that residents in coastal Louisiana experienced significantly greater exposures than urban residents. Threshold air pollution levels established for the oil spill apparently were not used as a basis for informing the public about these potential health impacts. Also, despite carrying out the most comprehensive air monitoring ever conducted in the region, none of the agencies involved provided integrated analysis of the data or conclusive statements about public health risk. Better information about real-time risk is needed in future environmental disasters.     

Modeling to Evaluate Contribution of Oil and Gas Emissions to Air Pollution

Oil and gas production in the Western United States has increased considerably over the past 10 years. While many of the still limited oil and gas impact assessments have focused on potential human health impacts, the typically remote locations of production in the Intermountain West suggests that the impacts of oil and gas production on national parks and wilderness areas (Class I and II areas) could also be important. To evaluate this, we utilize the Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) with a year-long modeling episode representing the best available representation of 2011 meteorology and emissions for the Western United States. The model inputs for the 2011 episodes were generated as part of the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS). The study includes a detailed assessment of oil and gas (O&G) emissions in Western States. The year-long modeling episode was run both with and without emissions from O&G production. The difference between these two runs provides an estimate of the contribution of the O&G production to air quality. These data were used to assess the contribution of O&G to the 8 hour average ozone concentrations, daily and annual fine particulate concentrations, annual nitrogen deposition totals and visibility in the modeling domain. We present the results for the Class I and II areas in the Western United States. Modeling results suggest that emissions from O&G activity are having a negative impact on air quality and ecosystem health in our National Parks and Class I areas.

Implications: In this research, we use a modeling framework developed for oil and gas evaluation in the western United States to determine the modeled impacts of emissions associated with oil and gas production on air pollution metrics. We show that oil and gas production may have a significant negative impact on air quality and ecosystem health in some national parks and other Class I areas in the western United States. Our findings are of particular interest to federal land managers as well as regulators in states heavy in oil and gas production as they consider control strategies to reduce the impact of development.     

Design and characterization of human exposure to generated sulfate and soot particles in a pilot chamber study

A number of literatures have documented adverse health effects of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), and secondary sulfate aerosol and black carbon may contribute to health impacts of PM_2.5 exposure. We designed an exposure system to generate sulfate and traffic soot particles, and assessed the feasibility of using it for human exposure assessment in a pilot human exposure study. In the designed exposure system, average mass concentrations of generated sulfate and soot particles were 74.19μg/m³ and 11.54μg/m³ in the chamber and did not vary significantly during two-hour human exposure sessions. The size ranges of generated sulfate were largely between 20 to 200 nm, whereas those of generated soot particles were in the size ranges of 50 to 200nm. Following two-hour exposure to generated sulfate and soot particles, we observed significant increases in fractional exhaled NO (FeNO) in young and health subjects. Building on established human exposure system and health response follow-up methods, future full-scale studies focusing on the effects of mixed particulates and individual PM_2.5 components would provide data in understanding the underpinning cardio-respiratory outcomes in relation to air pollution mixture exposure.

Implications: Controlled exposure is a useful design to measure the biological responses repeatedly following particulate exposures of target components and set exposure at target levels of health concerns. Our study provides rational and establishes method for future full-scale studies to focus on examining the effects of mixed particulates and individual PM_2.5 components.     

Radon versus other lung cancer risk factors: How accurate are the attribution estimates?

This notebook paper provides a brief overview of attribution estimates for some key lung cancer risk factors, focusing on indoor radon gas exposure in the U.S., UK, and Canada. Tobacco smoking represents the primary cause of lung cancer worldwide. Radon is regarded as the second leading lung cancer risk factor in the U.S. and Canada. It can be observed, however, that the reported estimates appear not to add up to the maximum cumulative attribution of 100%.

Implications: Limitations and uncertainties associated with published epidemiological studies and the observed lack of consistency in lung cancer attribution estimates for radon and other non-smoking lung cancer risk factors should be taken into consideration by policy makers in setting population health protection priorities.     

Analysis of air quality in Dire Dawa,Ethiopia

Ambient air quality was monitored and analyzed to develop air quality index and its implications for livability and climate change in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia. Using survey research design, 16 georeferenced locations, representing different land uses, were randomly selected and assessed for sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), carbon dioxide (CO₂), carbon monoxide (CO),volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and meteorological parameters (temperature and relative humidity). The study found mean concentrations across all land uses for SO₂ of 0.37 ± 0.08 ppm, NO₂ of 0.13 ± 0.17 ppm, CO₂ of 465.65 ± 28.63 ppm, CO of 3.35 ± 2.04 ppm, and VOCs of 1850.67 ± 402 ppm. An air quality index indicated that ambient air quality for SO₂ was very poor, NO₂ ranged from moderate to very poor, whereas CO rating was moderate. Significant positive correlations existed between temperature and NO₂, CO₂, and CO and between humidity and VOCs. Significant relationships were also recorded between CO₂ and NO₂ and between CO and CO₂. Poor urban planning, inadequate pollution control measure, and weak capacity to monitor air quality have implications for energy usage, air quality, and local meteorological parameters, with subsequent feedback into global climate change. Implementation of programs to monitor and control emissions in order to reduce air pollution will provide health, economic, and environmental benefits to the city.

Implications: The need to develop and implement emission control programs to reduce air pollution in Dire Dawa City is urgent. This will provide enormous economic, health, and environmental benefits. It is expected that economic effects of air quality improvement will offset the expenditures for pollution control. Also, strategies that focus on air quality and climate change present a unique opportunity to engage different stakeholders in providing inclusive and sustainable development agenda for Dire Dawa.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of air quality regulations: A review of accountability studies and frameworks

Assessments of past environmental policies—termed accountability studies—contribute important information to the decision-making process used to review the efficacy of past policies, and subsequently aid in the development of effective new policies. These studies have used a variety of methods that have achieved varying levels of success at linking improvements in air quality and/or health to regulations. The Health Effects Institute defines the air pollution accountability framework as a chain of events that includes the regulation of interest, air quality, exposure/dose, and health outcomes, and suggests that accountability research should address impacts for each of these linkages. Early accountability studies investigated short-term, local regulatory actions (for example, coal use banned city-wide on a specific date or traffic pattern changes made for Olympic Games). Recent studies assessed regulations implemented over longer time and larger spatial scales. Studies on broader scales require accountability research methods that account for effects of confounding factors that increase over time and space. Improved estimates of appropriate baseline levels (sometimes termed “counterfactual”—the expected state in a scenario without an intervention) that account for confounders and uncertainties at each link in the accountability chain will help estimate causality with greater certainty. In the direct accountability framework, researchers link outcomes with regulations using statistical methods that bypass the link-by-link approach of classical accountability. Direct accountability results and methods complement the classical approach. New studies should take advantage of advanced planning for accountability studies, new data sources (such as satellite measurements), and new statistical methods. Evaluation of new methods and data sources is necessary to improve investigations of long-term regulations, and associated uncertainty should be accounted for at each link to provide a confidence estimate of air quality regulation effectiveness. The final step in any accountability is the comparison of results with the proposed benefits of an air quality policy.

Implications: The field of air pollution accountability continues to grow in importance to a number of stakeholders. Two frameworks, the classical accountability chain and direct accountability, have been used to estimate impacts of regulatory actions, and both require careful attention to confounders and uncertainties. Researchers should continue to develop and evaluate both methods as they investigate current and future air pollution regulations.