Disaster coordination preparedness of soft-target organisations

This paper introduces a network‐enabled model to examine the disaster coordination preparedness of soft‐target organisations (STOs). Little attention is devoted to this matter in recent research. This study places emphasis on such organisations and the proposed model tests hypotheses related to network relation and coordination preparedness. It analyses the data set entitled ‘Preparedness of large retail malls to prevent and respond to terrorist attack, 2004′, which contains 120 completed surveys of security directors of retail malls in the United States. ¹ 1 See http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/TPDRC/studies/21140 .
The following questions form the basis of this study: ‘What do STOs need to be better prepared to respond to a disaster?’; ‘How does network relationship between STOs and emergency agencies affect the coordination preparedness of STOs for disaster recovery?’; and ‘Which centrality measure needs to be followed to measure network variables in order to analyse coordination preparedness?’ The results show that STOs with a high level of connectedness and strong ties to other emergency agencies are better prepared for disaster response.     

Towards an integrated approach of disaster and environment management: A case study of Thua Thien Hue province, central Viet Nam

Objetivo: El objetivo de este estudio era examinar los problemas emocionales y comportamentales de niños refugiados no acompañados que fueron repatriados a Vietnam de los centros de refugiados de Hong-Kong y del Sudeste asiático. Los niños fueron comparados con una muestra emparejada de niños que nunca dejaron Vietnam.Método: La muestra estaba compuesta por un total de 455 niños vietnamitas de edades comprendidas entre los 10 y los 22 años. Un total de 238 niños habían residido previamente sin sus padres en campos de refugiados. Se recogieron datos aplicando la versión de autoinforme para jóvenes del Achenbach (Youth Self-Report), la Escala de Autoeficacia Percibida de Cowen, una escala de Soporte Social y una escala de Exposición al Trauma.Resultados: No se observaron diferencias significativas entre los grupos de niños en la puntuación total del YSR. Los niños previamente refugiados tuvieron puntuaciones más bajas que los niños del grupo control en la escala de “problemas de conducta externalizados”. Se observó una tendencia en los niños refugiados a presentar puntuaciones más altas que los niños del grupo control en la escala de “problemas de conducta internalizados”. No se observaron diferencias entre los dos grupos en la eficacia autopercibida, el número de fuentes de apoyo social y las experiencias de apoyo social. Otros análisis mostraron que una interacción significativa entre la condición de inmigrantes de los niños y su percepción subjetiva del actual nivel de vida explicó las diferencias en las puntuaciones en el YSR.Conclusión: Los resultados sugieren que la experiencia de vivir sin sus padres en un campo de refugiados no conduce a presentar más problemas emocionales y de conducta en los años posteriores inmediatos a la repatriación.

Mapping social vulnerability to flood hazard in Norfolk,England

In this paper, we present a method to assess social vulnerability through the creation of an Open Source Vulnerability Index (OS-VI). The OS-VI provides context to environmental hazards and allows NGOs and local agencies to better tailor services and provide targeted pre-emptive vulnerability reduction and resilience-building programmes. A deductive indicator-based approach is utilised to incorporate a wide range of vulnerability indicators known to influence vulnerability. Unlike many vulnerability indices, the OS-VI incorporates flood risk as well as the loss of capabilities and the importance of key services (health facilities and food stores) through the measurement of accessibility when determining an area's level of social vulnerability. The index was developed using open-source mapping and analysis software and is composed completely of open-source data from national data sets. The OS-VI was designed at the national level, with data for all proxy indicators available across the entirety of England and Wales. For this paper, a case study is presented concerned with one English county, Norfolk.

Highlights

• We produce an open-source vulnerability index.

• Accessibility to health care found to be severely affected by flooding.

• High vulnerability areas found to be disproportionately impacted by flooding.

• Urban extent of an area found to increase its level of vulnerability.

• Flood affected areas more likely to be composed of elderly, sick and poor.

     

基于隆起变形分析的基坑坑底抗隆起稳定可靠度分析∗

采用土体硬化（Hardening Soil）模型,在 PLAXIS 2D 中建立基坑开挖数值模型,在获取坑底特征点隆起变形数据的基础上构建坑底隆起变形超限失效模式对应的极限状态函数,为提高计算效率,应用响应面法代替有限元计算快速获取坑底特征点隆起变形值,结合蒙特卡罗模拟方法进行坑底抗隆起稳定性可靠度分析,分析结果表明： 第三层土的卸载再加载模量 以及有效内摩擦角 的变异性对坑底抗隆起稳定性影响显著;第一层土的有效黏聚力 、有效内摩擦角 、割线模量 、切线模量 以及第二层土的有效黏聚力 的变异性对坑底抗隆起稳定性影响较小,但相对而言,第二层土的有效黏聚力 对坑底抗隆起稳定性的影响较大;对于坑底土体为粉砂的深基坑来说,对坑内土体进行加固可以有效约束坑底隆起变形。     

铁路灾害线路通过能力损失评估模型

针对目前铁路抗灾减灾的实际需要 ,阐述了铁路灾害间接经济损失评估的重要性 ,论证了铁路灾害线路通过能力损失是铁路灾害间接经济损失的主要部分 ,并提出了铁路灾害线路通过能力损失的评估模型     

Y2K—a humanitarian disaster? Why not?

Australian bushfire agencies have a position that people in the path of a fire should either prepare, stay and defend their properties, or leave the area well before the fire front arrives. The position is based largely on observations that evacuating at the last minute is often fatal and that, generally, a key factor in house survival during a wildfire is the presence of people in the building. In practice, full implementation of the position has been difficult for a range of reasons.

As part of the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) research effort <www.bushfirecrc.com>, our project is examining the evidence base for this position and aims to suggest ways of improving implementation.

We have found that the available evidence, which goes back some 60 yr, strongly supports the Australian position. The position is supported on the grounds of both improved safety and reduced property loss. The evidence also shows that the most dangerous option—and the cause of most fatalities—is last minute evacuation.     

Preventing corruption in humanitarian assistance: perceptions, gaps and challenges

Corruption is a threat to the purpose of humanitarian assistance. Until fairly recently, humanitarian assistance has not been considered an important arena in broader efforts aimed at curbing corruption, and corruption has not always been considered a particularly important concern for humanitarian assistance despite the obviously challenging nature of the context of humanitarian emergencies. Corruption, though, is a threat to humanitarian action because it can prevent assistance from getting to the people who most need it, and because it can potentially undermine public support for such assistance. This paper examines perceptions of corruption and its affects, documents best practices, and outlines gaps in understanding. It suggests recommendations for improving the capacity of humanitarian agencies to prevent and manage the risk of corruption. Agencies have taken steps to combat corruption and improve accountability--downwards and upwards--but scope remains for improvement and for greater sharing of learning and good practice.     

Disaster preparedness for farmers: A methodology

In summary, four elements are considered to be essential for introducing a national system of agricultural disaster preparedness planning:

• (a) the initiative should be taken by the Ministry of Agriculture (or its equivalent); within project areas, the initiative should be taken by the project authority, although preferably within a national system;
• (b) contingency planning should form part of an annual/ seasonal agricultural production planning; appropriate budgetary allocations should be made at this stage;
• (c) regional or district agricultural officers should be given specific responsibility to collect relevant environmental and land use information for disaster-prone areas and to prepare relevant contingency plans; and
• (d) all agricultural officials, from the Ministry down to the lowest field level, should be trained in how to make and use disaster preparedness plans; local government representatives and officials should also be trained.

Training is regarded as the key element. This is a field where international agencies such as FAO and UNDRO could assist governments to improve their state of disaster preparedness. Voluntary agencies could also play an important role in training community leaders in the identification of disaster preparedness needs and possibilities.     

清代综合治理黄河下游水患的常用策略与方法

对清代防汛、抢险、堵决、浚河等方面“以水治水”的科学治河策略与方法加以钩稽与总结 ,目的是为当今治理黄河提供借鉴与启迪     

The Oder – a river that floods: the problem of environmental adaptation in literary texts

This article discusses inter and post-war works of fiction written by Polish and German-speaking authors with biographical connections to Oder River regions. The literary texts provide insights into the vulnerability to and resilience constructions of floods, which are related to such cultural factors as migrant histories and traditions, regional beliefs and religion, and the political background of changing frontiers in 1919 and 1945 that affected residents of this cross-border area.

The capacity to cope with the flooding Oder, especially after the major flood in 1997, intertwines with the problematic Polish-German relationship, including Silesia. For Polish communities, whose environmental cultures have been distorted by wars, resettlement and communism, vulnerability and resilience perceptions lack representations of the tangible river. It is culturally bounded in the stigmatising image of the Oder as the border of division, revived after 1945 and exposed by the Polish communist party in the so-called ‘Polonisation’ of the ‘Recovered Territories’. Fiction detects the problem of overworking the difficult past in response to the Oder’s hazardous nature. Writers representing an emotional attachment to the river and an aquacritical approach express the need to learn about the river’s lively nature, both in cooperating and sharing space, which is called the environmental adaptation.     

Mental health in South Sudan: a case for community‐based support

This paper² provides a snapshot of the mental health situation in South Sudan between 2013 and 2016, taking account of the personal reflections of both authors who were engaged in mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS)³ programming in the country at this time.⁴ It begins by presenting an overview of MHPSS activities from this period, including governmental and non‐governmental organisation (NGO) services, and relevant research and coordination mechanisms. It goes on to illustrate the challenges to the provision of support, as well as the overarching structural, governance, and human resource constraints faced by the sector. Finally, recommendations are put forward for improving services and care for people suffering from psychosocial and mental health issues, as well as suggestions for areas of focus in the future. The importance of an integrated, community‐based model is emphasised, and opportunities for organisations engaged in reconciliation efforts and mental health service provision to collaborate are proposed.     

1998年中国洪灾与减灾对策

分析了 1998年中国洪灾的原因 ,并提出了相应的防灾、减灾对策     

近50年来湖南省旱洪灾害及其时空分布

利用 194 9年以来湖南省 9个代表站的降水资料 ,提出了湖南省旱洪灾害的等级标准 ,分析了湖南省旱洪灾害及其时空分布和旱洪重灾区的形成原因     

浅论灾害科学的研究现状

在查阅了大量灾害科学方面的专著、期刊、学位论文和其它文献资料的基础上 ,本文试图对国内外的灾害科学研究现状进行粗浅的讨论     

江苏省雷暴气候特征分析

利用江苏省历年雷暴统计资料 ,运用保证率公式计算了江苏省各地区的雷暴可能初日和终日等时空特征 ,为采取相应措施预防雷带来的灾害提供了依据     

Estimating willingness to pay for a hypothetical earthquake early warning systems

The development of reliable, accessible, and transparent earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) for disaster reduction have been given increased priority at local, national, and international levels. Accurately quantifying the social and economic benefits accrued to households and businesses from EEWSs are a challenging and difficult task. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is used to evaluate the benefits of a hypothetical EEWS to the citizens of Tehran Metropolitan. This study clarifies public willingness to pay (WTP) for EEWS in Tehran, and the dominant factors involved in WTP through a CVM analysis. The survey, completed by more than 504 households, showed that on average households are willing to pay 367,471 Rials (38 US$) per month for the hypothetical EEWS. Those willing to pay the most for EEWS are households, which currently possess a fire alarm. Also the more educated the respondents and the more children the respondents have, the more willing they are to pay for EEWS. These results could be used by policy makers and technology firms in order to determine the optimal investments in early warning systems for earthquake disaster reduction.     

我国水灾与可持续发展研究

根据我国水灾的有关资料 ,研究了我国水灾的基本特点 ,分析了水灾形成的主要原因及其对可持续发展的制约作用 ,提出了根治水灾必须走可持续发展的道路     

Learning from UK disaster exercises: policy implications for effective emergency preparedness

With a view towards suggesting improvements to the official UK Guidance for disaster exercises, this paper critically examines a representative sample of recent disaster management exercises in the United Kingdom to determine how they are planned, conducted and assessed. Personal observations and in‐depth qualitative interviews were used to study three representative multi‐agency disaster exercises in the UK: (1) the Hitachi 395 Evacuation Workshop and Exercise Twin Bore, (2) Exercise Saxon Shore and (3) Exercise Operation Safe Return. The research demonstrates that disaster exercises in the UK generally consist of four main approaches: (1) disaster response and adaptability, (2) building‐block approach, (3) citizen participation and (4) discussion‐based debriefs. While the data demonstrates that each of these approaches has significant merit, it also elucidates key improvements that should be made to the official UK guidance and reflected in future exercises. In particular, the research suggests that the Guidance should highlight the importance of adaptability at the scene of a disaster, advance a building‐block methodology to organising exercises and reiterate the need for better debriefings of volunteer participants.     

Characterizing vulnerability to water scarcity: The case of a groundwater-dependent, rapidly urbanizing region

Groundwater overdraft is a resource management issue that poses a threat for the security of communities. Impacts of groundwater overdraft are influenced by the biophysical and social contexts of water management. This paper presents a method for assessing vulnerability to water scarcity in spatial terms using biophysical and social indicators. A geographic information system was used to establish areas of vulnerability based upon hydrologic variability in water resource availability within a groundwater basin, three types of water management systems, and 10 sociodemographic characteristics. Our study area is in the rapidly urbanizing Arizona Central Highlands, located 150 km north of the Phoenix metropolitan region, USA. Results indicate that the most biophysically vulnerable places do not necessarily intersect with the most vulnerable populations and that local differences in vulnerability are interrelated, rather than independent, outcomes in a process of socioenvironmental transformation. Vulnerability is influenced by laws that deny access to local surface waters and lead to dependence on fossil groundwater, and by economic reliance on urbanization. Localities attempt to reduce vulnerability through the development of community water systems and the expansion of water frontiers. While such strategies may reduce local vulnerability, they are not sustainable solutions because they transfer risks to other places, and thus contribute to vulnerability elsewhere.     

泥石流在两河交汇处堵江后坝体渗流模型的研究

采用重正化群方法算出三维自由渗流模型的渗流阀值 ,在此基础上提出三维具有自相似性质的渗流模型。并在此模型下分析了在实际观测中坝体对岸处易溃坝的原因以及从泥石流堵江后坝体衍化的角度探讨了它崩溃的机理