Forestry projects for climate change mitigation: an overview of guidelines and issues for monitoring,evaluation, reporting,verification, and certification

Monitoring and evaluation of forestry projects is needed to accurately determine their impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other attributes, and to ensure that the global climate is protected and that country obligations are met. We present an overview of guidelines recently developed for the monitoring, evaluation, reporting, verification, and certification (MERVC) of forestry projects for climate change mitigation.¹ These guidelines are targeted to developers, evaluators, verifiers, and certifiers of forestry projects, and address several key issues, including methods for estimating gross and net carbon savings. The next phase of our work will be to develop a procedural handbook providing information on how one can complete monitoring, evaluation and verification forms.     

The Monitoring,Evaluation, Reporting and Verification of Climate Change Projects

Because of concerns with the growing threat of global climate change from increasing emissions of greenhouse gases, the United States and other countries are implementing, by themselves or in cooperation with one or more other nations, climate change projects. These projects will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or sequester carbon, and will also result in non-GHG benefits (i.e., environmental, economic, and social benefits). Monitoring, evaluating, reporting, and verifying (MERV) guidelines are needed for these projects to accurately determine their net GHG, and other, benefits. Implementation of MERV guidelines is also intended to: (1) increase the reliability of data for estimating GHG benefits; (2) provide real-time data so that mid-course corrections can be made; (3) introduce consistency and transparency across project types and reporters; and (4) enhance the credibility of the projects with stakeholders. In this paper, we review the issues involved in MERV activities. We identify several topics that future protocols and guidelines need to address, such as: (1) establishing a credible baseline; (2) accounting for impacts outside project boundaries through leakage; (3) net GHG reductions and other benefits; (4) precision of measurement; (5) MERV frequency and the persistence (sustainability) of savings, emissions reduction, and carbon sequestration; (6) reporting by multiple project participants; (7) verification of GHG reduction credits; (8) uncertainty and risk; (9) institutional capacity in conducting MERV; and (10) the cost of MERV.     

Forest carbon management,the greenhouse effect and electric utilities

Electric utilities in the US have initiated forestry projects to conserve energy and to offset carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. In 1995, 40 companies raised US$2.5 million to establish the non-profit UtiliTree Carbon Company which is now sponsoring eight projects representing a mix of rural tree planting, forest preservation, forest management and research efforts at both domestic (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Oregon) and international sites (Belize and Malaysia). The projects include extensive external verification. Such forestry projects — properly documented, monitored and verified — should be a component of domestic and international strategies to address greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, due to GHG benefits, cost-effectiveness and many other environmental benefits (e.g., related to habitat, erosion and biodiversity). These projects on average are projected to manage CO₂ at a cost of about US $1 per ton. Experts have determined through a series of technical workshops and projects that GHG benefits can be accurately quantified for most types of forestry projects and, in fact, forestry projects in general present no greater challenges than energy-related projects. Near-term policy decision-making related to CO₂ management via forestry is discussed.     

Global Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Forest Management — The Challenge of Monitoring and Verification

In this paper, sustainable forest management is discussed within the historical and theoretical framework of the sustainable development debate. The various criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management put forth by different, institutions are critically explored. Specific types of climate change mitigation policies/projects in the forest sector are identified and examined in the light of the general, criteria for sustainable forest management. Areas of compatibility and contradiction between the climate mitigation objectives and the minimum criteria for sustainable forest management are identified and discussed. Emphasis is put on the problems of monitoring and verifying carbon benefits associated with such projects given their impacts on pre-existing policy objectives on sustainable forest, management. The implications of such policy interactions on assignment of carbon credits from forest projects under Joint Implementation/Activities Implemented Jointly initiatives are discussed. The paper concludes that a comprehensive monitoring and verification regime must include an impact assessment on the criteria covered under other agreements such as the Biodiversity and/or Desertification Conventions. The actual carbon credit assigned to a specific project should at least take into account the negative impacts on the criteria for sustainable forest management. The value of the impacts and/or the procedure to evaluate them need to be established by interested parties such as the Councils of the respective Conventions.     

Transaction costs for carbon sequestration projects in the tropical forest sector

There is general consensus that carbon (C) sequestration projects in forests are a relatively low cost option for mitigating climate change, but most studies on the subject have assumed that transaction costs are negligible. The objectives of the study were to examine transaction costs for forest C sequestration projects and to determine the significance of the costs based on economic analyses. Here we examine four case studies of active C sequestration projects being implemented in tropical countries and developed for the C market. The results from the case studies were then used with a dynamic forest and land use economic model to investigate how transaction costs affect the efficiency and cost of forest C projects globally. In the case studies transaction costs ranged from 0.38 to 27 million US dollars ($0.09 to $7.71/t CO₂) or 0.3 to 270 % of anticipated income depending principally on the price of C and project size. The three largest cost categories were insurance (under the voluntary market; 41–89 % of total costs), monitoring (3–42 %) and regulatory approval (8–50 %). The global analysis indicated that most existing estimates of marginal costs of C sequestration are underestimated by up to 30 % because transaction costs were not included.     

Concerns about climate change mitigation projects: summary of findings from case studies in Brazil,India, Mexico and South Africa

The concept of joint implementation as a way to implement climate change mitigation projects in another country has been controversial ever since its inception. Developing countries have raised numerous issues at the project-specific technical level and broader concerns having to do with equity and burden sharing. This paper summarizes the findings of studies for Brazil, India, Mexico and South Africa, four countries that have large greenhouse gas emissions and are heavily engaged in the debate on climate change projects under the Kyoto Protocol. The studies examine potential or current projects/programs to determine whether eight technical concerns about joint implementation can be adequately addressed. They conclude that about half the concerns were minor or well managed by project developers, but concerns about additionality of funds, host country institutions and guarantees of performance (including the issues of baselines and possible leakage) need much more effort to be adequately addressed. All the papers agree on the need to develop institutional arrangements for approving and monitoring such projects in each of the countries represented. The case studies illustrate that these projects have the potential to bring new technology, investment, employment and ancillary socioeconomic and environmental benefits to developing countries. These benefits are consistent with the goal of sustainable development in the four study countries. At a policy level, the studies' authors note that in their view, the Annex I countries should consider limits on the use of jointly implemented projects as a way to get credits against their own emissions at home, and stress the importance of industrialized countries developing new technologies that will benefit all countries. The authors also observe that if all countries accepted caps on their emissions (with a longer time period allowed for developing countries to do so) project-based GHG mitigation would be significantly facilitated by the improved private investment climate.     

Mitigation and adaptation synergy in forest sector

Mitigation and adaptation are the two main strategies to address climate change. Mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in the global negotiations as well as literature. There is a realization on the need to explore and promote synergy between mitigation and adaptation while addressing climate change. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the synergy between mitigation and adaptation by considering forest sector, which on the one hand is projected to be adversely impacted under the projected climate change scenarios and on the other provide opportunities to mitigate climate change. Thus, the potential and need for incorporating adaptation strategies and practices in mitigation projects is presented with a few examples. Firstly, there is a need to ensure that mitigation programs or projects do not increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems and plantations. Secondly, several adaptation practices could be incorporated into mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability. Further, many of the mitigation projects indeed reduce vulnerability and promote adaptation, for example; forest and biodiversity conservation, protected area management and sustainable forestry. Also, many adaptation options such as urban forestry, soil and water conservation and drought resistant varieties also contribute to mitigation of climate change. Thus, there is need for research and field demonstration of synergy between mitigation and adaptation, so that the cost of addressing climate change impacts can be reduced and co-benefits increased.     

Afforestation opportunities when stand productivity is driven by a high risk of natural disturbance: a review of the open lichen woodland in the eastern boreal forest of Canada

Afforestation has the potential to offset the increased emission of atmospheric carbon dioxide and has therefore been proposed as a strategy to mitigate climate change. Here we review the opportunities for carbon (C) offsets through open lichen woodland afforestation in the boreal forest of eastern Canada as a case study, while considering the reversal risks (low productivity, fires, insect outbreaks, changes in land use and the effects of future climate on growth potential as well as on the disturbances regime). Our results suggest that : (1) relatively low growth rate may act as a limiting factor in afforestation projects in which the time available to increase C is driven by natural disturbances; (2) with ongoing climate change, a global increase in natural disturbance rates, mainly fire and spruce budworm outbreaks, may offset any increases in net primary production at the landscape level; (3) the reduction of the albedo versus increase in biomass may negatively affect the net climate forcing; (4) the impermanence of C stock linked to the reversal risks makes this scenario not necessarily cost attractive. More research, notably on the link between fire risk and site productivity, is needed before afforestation can be incorporated into forest management planning to assist climate change mitigation efforts. Therefore, we suggest that conceivable mitigation strategies in the boreal forest will likely have to be directed activities that can reduce emissions and can increase C sinks while minimizing the reversal impacts. Implementation of policies to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHG) in the boreal forest should consider the biophysical interactions, the different spatial and temporal scales of their benefits, the costs (investment and benefits) and how all these factors are influenced by the site history.     

地下水污染修复技术验证评价方法研究

随着工业生产的飞速发展,我国地下水污染问题日益突出,亟需大量高效的修复技术以提高对地下水污染的治理效果.然而,现有的专家评估体系难以客观、科学地反映技术的真实性能,也很难促进其推广应用,因此亟需加快ETV（environmental technology verification,环境技术验证评价）研究,创建客观、公正和科学的地下水污染修复技术验证评价体系.基于此,采用层次分析法建立了由目标污染物去除效果、副产物情况、固体废物、废水、废气、噪音、自动化水平、故障情况、适用场地类型、基建费用、药剂投加量、能源消耗和资源回收利用共13个指标组成的地下水污染修复技术验证评价指标体系.依据相关技术规范和专家咨询意见,制定了指标评价标准和方法;基于聚类分析方法,以25个地下水污染修复技术为研究对象,对分类评价和综合评价进行评价结果分级.按照由优到差的级别,分类评价结果分为优秀、合格、不合格3个等级,综合评价结果分为优秀、良好、合格、基本合格和不合格5个等级,由此构成了地下水污染修复技术验证评价方法.为了验证该评价方法的科学性和可行性,利用该方法对某项地下水污染修复技术进行了案例分析.研究显示,所构建的地下水污染修复技术验证评价方法可客观有效地评价地下水修复技术的先进性和适用性,并能够提供改进技术性能的进一步建议.      

Elements of a certification system for forestry-based carbon offset projects

Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will require theestablishment of procedures for monitoring,verification and certification of carbon offsetprojects. In this paper, the steps required forindependent certification of forestry-based carbonoffset projects are reviewed, based on the proceduresused by the international certification companySociété Générale de Surveillance.Firstly, a project must be evaluated for itssuitability in relation to eligibility criteria of theKyoto Protocol. These eligibility criteria areclassified under four headings: (a) acceptability tohost country parties and international agreements; (b)additionality, in terms of demonstrated positivegreenhouse gas effects additional to the`business-as-usual' case; (c) externalities orunwanted side effects; and, (d) capacity to implementproject's activities. Secondly, the scientificmethodology for calculating the carbon offsets and themethodology for data collection and statisticalanalysis must be evaluated. Additionally, the amountof carbon offsets quantified must be adjusted toreflect the uncertainty associated with themethodology and data used. Only when these steps havebeen completed can carbon offsets be certified.Finally, the paper discusses the importance ofstandardization of methods and procedures used forproject monitoring and verification, and the need foraccreditation to ensure that the activities ofcertifiers are regulated.     

Towards a framework to assess,compare and develop monitoring and evaluation of climate change adaptation in Europe

Adaptation is increasingly recognised as essential when dealing with the adverse impacts of climate change on societies, economies and the environment. However, there is insufficient information about the effectiveness of adaption policies, measures and actions. For this reason, the establishment of monitoring programmes is considered to be necessary. Such programmes can contribute to knowledge, learning and data to support adaptation governance. In the European Union (EU), member states are encouraged to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). The NASs developed so far vary widely because of differing views, approaches and policies. A number of member states have progressed to monitoring and evaluating the implementation of their NAS. It is possible to identify key elements in these monitoring programmes that can inform the wider policy learning process. In this paper, four generic building blocks for creating a monitoring and evaluation programme are proposed: (1) definition of the system of interest, (2) selection of a set of indicators, (3) identification of the organisations responsible for monitoring and (4) definition of monitoring and evaluation procedures. The monitoring programmes for NAS in three member states—Finland, the UK and Germany—were analysed to show how these elements have been used in practice, taking into account their specific contexts. It is asserted that the provision of a common framework incorporating these elements will help other member states and organisations within them in setting up and improving their adaptation monitoring programmes.     

Cleaner production as climate investment—integrated assessment in Taiyuan City,China

Taiyuan, one of the most polluted cities in the world, is the first cleaner production demonstration city in China. We assess energy related cleaner production projects in Taiyuan from the point of view of climate change and integrated assessment. In the assessment we develop a rather detailed methodology that relies on a battery of chained models All of the projects improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions. Still, we find that their environmental health benefit differs substantially. The projects are treated similarly from point of view of funding and the regularatory process. Yet, we find that their cost differs substantially, and there is no proportionality between costs and benefits. The finding could supplement explanations of cleaner production progress that rely on financial and institutional barriers. We also ask if the positive attitude to cleaner production in China may help the country introduce greenhouse gas saving projects under another name. It turns out that some, but not all of the projects we analyse have significant greenhouse gas reduction potential. The possibility for foreign funding as CDM projects is discussed.     

Institutional Responses to Climate Change: the Case of the Alaska Transportation System

Institutions managing the Alaska road,rail, airport, and marine highwaytransportation system and the pipelinecorridor are evaluated for reactions toevidence of climate change. Long-termclimate warming is not a formal criterionin the decisional process of the stateDepartment of Transportation and PublicFacilities for road and airport projects,which have a short (15–25 year) life span,but is taken into account for bridgeconstruction (50–75 year life). Short- tomid-term climate effects are considered inareas with discontinuous permafrost andaffect routing, roadbed construction, andmaintenance decisions. National standardsare amended with Alaska-specific practicesfor unique cold-weather conditions.The Federal/State Joint Pipeline Office(JPO), responsible for monitoring ofpipeline safety under the federal lease andstate grant, in 2001 developed additionalstipulations to mitigate permafrost thawingand slope instability, including a `watchlist' of 200 wobbling VSMs on theTrans-Alaska Pipeline. This action appearsmore responsive to climate change effectsthan that of any other arctic institutionstudied. It can be attributed to thespecific authority of the JPO to monitorgeotechnical conditions at present and inthe future.In general, agencies tended to adoptincremental responses to evidence ofclimate change.     

Mitigation,adaptation, and climate change: results from recent research on US timber markets

This paper reviews recent studies that have addressed how US timber markets may adapt to climate change, and how US forests could be used to mitigate potential climate change. The studies are discussed in light of the ecological and economic assumptions used to estimate adaptation. Estimates of both economic impacts and carbon sequestration costs depend heavily on the assumptions and methods used, although some general conclusions can be drawn. Studies of economic impacts suggest that average market effects in the United States may range from +$1.3 to +7.4 billion per year by the middle of the next century. Estimates of the cost of sequestering carbon have generally increased over the last 10 years, with a current range of <1–73 million metric t per year of additional sequestration from afforestation projects costing $5–66 per metric t. Estimates of the potential for alternative methods for carbon sequestration, such as product markets and recycling, are as large as afforestation estimates, with up to 50 million metric tons per year of additional storage considered possible. Cost estimates have not been developed for these alternative methods, however.     

Balancing China’s climate damage risk against emission control costs

In this study, we incorporate a three-reservoir climate module into our energy-economy-environmental integrated (3E-integrated) system model, in order to estimate the effect of China’s contribution of unilateral emissions on global warming and to weigh the macro-mitigation cost against the risk of damage, and we also explore the role of adaptation in reducing climate change risk. Our results suggest that China’s unilateral emission-control action plays a relatively limited role in mitigating global warming and is not particularly cost-effective, given that the macro-reduction cost is much larger than the benefit in the corresponding climate damage mitigation. Adaptation plays a large role in curbing China’s climate damages and improving the economics of China’s unilateral emission-control actions, and it is little affected by the introduction and option mitigation strategies. To prevent global warming from exceeding critical thresholds, more international collaborations and cooperative efforts are therefore anxiously needed; as for China, bolstering a low-carbon economy and installing an effective mechanism for improving the adaptation level are two feasible options for controlling climate damage risks, given the great uncertainty on the present situation of international cooperation mitigation.     

Climate change effects on pesticide usage reduction efforts: a case study in China

China has announced plans to stabilize its pesticide use by 2020. Yet, future climate change will possibly increase the difficulty of meeting this goal. This study uses econometric estimation to explore how climate impacts Chinese pesticide usage and subsequently to project the future implications of climate change on pesticide use. The results indicate that both atmospheric temperature and precipitation increase pesticide usage. Under current climate change projections, pesticide usage will rise by +1.1 to 2.5% by 2040, +2.4 to 9.1% by 2070, and +2.6 to 18.3% by 2100. Linearly extrapolating the results to 2020 yields an approximately 0.5 to 1.2% increase. Thus, to achieve stabilization, more severe actions are needed to address this increase. Possible actions to achieve the reductions needed include using better monitoring and early warning networks so as to permit early responses to climate change-stimulated increases, enhancing information dissemination, altering crop mix, and promoting nonchemical control means. Additionally, given that increased pesticide usage generally increases health and environmental damage, there may be a need to more widely disseminate safe application procedure information while also strengthening compliance with food safety regulations. Furthermore, pest control strategies will need to be capable of evolving as climate change proceeds. Globally, efforts could be made to (1) scale up agrometeorological services, especially in developing countries; (2) use international frameworks to better align the environmental and health standards in developing countries with those in developed countries; and (3) adapt integrated pest management practices to climate change, especially for fruits and vegetables.     

Application of ecosystem health cost-effect analysis in eco-planning in Guangzhou City,China

Ecosystem health has been a focal point and research frontier of applied ecology in recent years, increasingly used in urban ecological studies. To quantify the effect of ecological improvement from eco-planning, an ecosystem health assessment method is used in eco-planning evaluation and decision support in the urban eco-planning research of Guangzhou City of China. Based on features of an urban ecosystem, five factors such as vigor, organizational structure, resilience, ability to maintain ecosystem service, and influence on people’s health were selected to develop the assessment indicator system. Then, to evaluate the validity of planning measures, a cost-effect analysis of the different scenarios on eco-planning was made, taking investment of the planned projects as the cost and ecosystem health state after implementing the scenarios as the effect. To establish priority of all the proposed planning schemes or countermeasures, variation of the ecosystem health state was evaluated when the investment of eco-environmental construction projects changes by ±10%, ±20% and ±50%, respectively. Thus, the order of importance of eco-environment construction projects to the urban ecosystem health state can be worked out, providing a reference for prioritizing the implementation of such urban eco-environmental projects. The study proved the trial value of an ecosystem health evaluation method in urban eco-planning research. Translated from China Population, Resources and Environment, 2005, 15(5): 126–130 [译自: 中国人口资源与环境]     

Adaptive management of marine mega-fauna in a changing climate

Management of marine mega-fauna in a changing climate is constrained by a series of uncertainties, often related to climate change projections, ecological responses, and the effectiveness of strategies in alleviating climate change impacts. Uncertainties can be reduced over time through adaptive management. Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. To successfully implement the adaptive management cycle, different steps (planning, designing, learning and adjusting) need to be systematically implemented to inform earlier steps in an iterative way. Despite the critical role that adaptive management is likely to play in addressing the impacts of climate change on marine mega-fauna few managers have successfully implemented an adaptive management approach. We discuss the approaches necessary to implement each step of an adaptive management cycle to manage marine mega-fauna in a changing climate, highlighting the steps that require further attention to fully implement the process. Examples of sharks and rays (Selachimorpha and Batoidea) on the Great Barrier Reef and little penguins, Eudyptula minor, in south-eastern Australia are used as case studies. We found that successful implementation of the full adaptive management cycle to marine mega-fauna needs managers and researchers to: (1) obtain a better understanding of the capacity of species to adapt to climate change to inform the planning step; (2) identify strategies to directly address impacts in the marine environment to inform the designing step; and (3) develop systematic evaluation and monitoring programs to inform the learning step. Further, legislation needs to flexible to allow for management to respond.     

Prospects for mitigating carbon,conserving biodiversity,and promoting socioeconomic development objectives through the clean development mechanism

Should forest-based climate mitigationmeasures be approved for crediting through the CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM), they could offer anopportunity to accomplish three important objectives:cost-effective reductions in carbon emissions andsequestration of atmospheric carbon; conservation andrestoration of forests and their biological diversity;and, the assistance of host countries and communitiesin their socioeconomic development. However,prospective investors in CDM projects, host countriesand other CDM `stakeholders' might be expected toplace widely different priorities on achieving theseobjectives. This paper describes several factors thatwill affect investor interest in CDM projects, thecharacteristics of forest-based CDM projects that willattract investments, and an approach to identifyingprojects that meet the key objectives of multiplestakeholders. This approach entails identifyingsites, such as degraded watersheds, where CDMfinancing for forest conservation and restoration cangenerate readily monetizable local and regionalsocioeconomic benefits, while mitigating carbonemissions in forests with importance for conservingbiodiversity.     

Climate extremes,location vulnerability and private costs of property protection in Southwestern Cameroon

This study contends that climatic events such as storms and floods may significantly impact on cost of protection through climate proofing of housing structures along the Atlantic coastal zone in the Southwest region of Cameroon. Household level protection is purposely examined on the rationale that current protective efforts constitute the building blocks for long-term adaptation. Examining the determinants of the cost of current protection stands good stead to better inform policy to promote future adaptation to climatic stress. Hence, from a research sample of 400 households, the study estimates a function that relates household-level protection costs to their characteristics. Sixty-four percent of the homes studied have been hit at least once by strong winds, and an average of 2 times in the last 5 years, and 36% of houses have once been hit by storm surge from the sea nearby. With an average monthly income of 120.000 FCFA (US285), the coastal residents spend on average 145,500 FCFA (US 285), the coastal residents spend on average 145,500 FCFA (US 346) in preparation against floods. The statistical estimates of the cost function reveal significant positive signs, implying that the experiences and location of homes within floodplain increases the cost of protection no matter the structural characteristics of the house. The study observes that the proximity to the coast and in flood plains significantly increases the cost of protection, and the ability to invest in preventive measures and climate proofing housing structures increase as individual income grows. The findings indicate the need for improvement of monitoring and forecasting systems for floods, intensification of awareness and proper urban planning. The policy implications are reinforced by the low incomes of most residents, as this calls for external assistance through transfer of planning skills, capital and public options to reinforce the resilience and choices made at the household level.