The effect of passive smoking on pulmonary function in children

A study of ventilatory function was conducted in 344 nuclear families in a representative community population sample in Tucson, AZ. Household aggregation of pulmonary function, which is dependent on household aggregation of body mass, might affect the relationship of children's pulmonary function to parental smoking. When household aggregation of body mass was taken into account, there was no relationship of children's pulmonary function values to parental smoking. The trend, in the opposite direction, was similar to that found by Speizer et al. (1980a), but was not significant in this study. It must be concluded that passive smoking in the family, usually due to parental smoking habits, does not seriously affect permanent markers of respiratory disease such as pulmonary function.     

Never smoker lung cancer risks from exposure to particulate tobacco smoke

The average particulate environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure of never and current smokers and the average lung cancer mortality rate for current smokers is estimated from empirical data. These estimates are used in a linear downward extrapolation of the lung cancer risk/mg of particulate ETS exposure for current smokers to calculate the average lung cancer risk for never smokers and the number of never smoker lung cancer deaths (LCD) in the U.S. in 1980 from exposure to particulate ETS. The estimated average daily inhaled particulate ETS exposure for never smokers is 0.62 mg/day for men and 0.28 mg/day for women. The average never smoker is estimated to retain 11% of the inhaled exposure, for a daily retained exposure of 0.07 mg for men and 0.03 mg for women. Other estimates are: a daily retained exposure for current smokers of 310 mg for men and 249 mg for women, a smoking-attributable lung cancer risk for current smokers in 1980 of 284 LCD/100,000 men and 121 LCD/100,000 women, and an annual retained-exposure lung cancer risk for never smokers of 0.64 LCD/100,000 men and 0.015 LCD/100,000 women. These risks and exposures estimate 12 lung cancer deaths among never smokers from exposure to particulate ETS: 8 among the 11.96 million male never smokers and 4 among the 28.85 million female never smokers in the U.S. in 1980. Conversely, between 655 and 3,610 never smoker lung cancer deaths are estimated from methods based on the average lung cancer risk observed in epidemiological studies of exposure to ETS. Three possible reasons for the discrepancy between the exposure and risk-based estimates are discussed: the excess risks observed in epidemiological studies are due to bias, the relationship between exposure and risk is supralinear, or sidestream tobacco smoke is substantially more carcinogenic than an equivalent exposure to mainstream smoke.     

A strategic quantitative approach for sustainable energy production from biomass

European legislation has created a growing interest in the field of renewable energy production in several countries, including Italy. The applications of biomass and/or biofuel for energy generation have been assumed to provide a high level of sustainability due to the perception that renewable resources are inherently sustainable. Thus, renewable fuels applied to heating and/or electricity generation are potentially carbon dioxide neutral. However, before accepting this assumption, it is essential to analyse the actual level of sustainability in the whole supply chain (SC). This requirement has been clearly identified by the recently updated European Directives on renewable biofuels for transportation. However, there is little evidence that this concern has been directed at energy production from biomass. Thus, approaches derived from Green SC Management (GSCM) methods could provide an effective tool for evaluating, from a strategic perspective, the sustainability level of a specific biomass SC. This paper examines how biomass SC activities can define the overall environmental sustainability level. The approach was based on environmental indicators and the resultant output could support more effective GSCM strategies (e.g. defining logistics carriers, evaluating new biomass suppliers, etc.) for managing biomass SCs. Moreover, the approach could be applied by competent authorities for a quick evaluation of the sustainability level of biomass energy production installations. The approach has been tested in a real case study based on an installation, located in Southern Italy, which uses liquid biomass for energy production.     

A new approach to estimate nuclide ratios from measurements with activities close to background

Measurements of low-level radioactivity often give results of the order of the detection limit. For many applications, interest is not only in estimating activity concentrations of a single radioactive isotope, but focuses on multi-isotope analyses, which often enable inference on the source of the activity detected (e.g. from activity ratios). Obviously, such conclusions become questionable if the measurement merely gives a detection limit for a specific isotope. This is particularly relevant if the presence of an isotope, which shows a low signal only (e.g. due to a short half-life or a small transition probability), is crucial for gaining the information of interest.     

A quantitative risk assessment of waterborne infectious disease in the inundation area of a tropical monsoon region

Flooding and inundation are annual events that occur during the rainy season in Cambodia, and inundation has a strong relationship with human health. This study simulated the coliform bacteria distribution using a hydraulic model and estimated the impact of inundation on public health using a dose–response model. The model parameters were calibrated using field survey data from Cambodia and obtained good agreement with the coliform group count distribution. The results suggest that the impact of inundation on human health is most noticeable in residential areas. The annual average risk of infection during medium-sized flood events is 0.21. The risk due to groundwater use ranges from 0.12 to 0.17 in inundation areas and reaches as high as 0.23 outside the inundation areas. The risk attributed to groundwater use is therefore higher than that for surface water use (0.02–0.06), except in densely populated areas at the city center. There is a high risk for infection with waterborne disease in residential areas, and the annual average risk during small flood events is 0.94. An assessment of possible countermeasures to reduce the risk shows that the control of inundation may bring more risk to public health in Cambodia. Shallower inundation water (<0.3 m) leads to a higher risk of infection, but if the depth is greater than 2 m, the risk is low in residential areas. The simulated results explain the spatial distributions of infection risk,, which are vitally important for determining the highest priority places with relatively high risk and will be helpful for decision makers when considering the implementation of countermeasures.     

A quantitative risk assessment method based on population and exposure distributions using Australian air quality data

This paper develops a practical probabilistic method for assessing aggregate population health risks from different types of population exposures. The method consists of calculating the product of two functions: a population-weighted distribution of concentrations and a concentration-response distribution. This operation yields the corresponding aggregated health-risk distribution function. The method can use alternative exposure-response distributions and populations-specific exposure patterns, depending on the context of the assessment. A deterministic sensitivity analysis is included in the methodological aspects of this research. The distributions of concentrations are generated by combining area-specific population densities with atmospheric concentrations for each of the areas where exposure to air pollutants occurs. The exposure-response functions are developed from the literature. The method is exemplified using alternative exposure probabilities to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter (PM₁₀), and exposure-response models developed specifically for these pollutants for assessing health risks, and applied to data from a number of Australian cities. The results, which hold when the functions are monotonic, show single maximum per pollutant, regardless of the choice of exposure and exposure-response distribution. Although those maxima are often below the Australian Air Pollution Standards, there are instances when this is not the case.     

Nitrate in drinking water and risk of death from colon cancer in Taiwan

The relationship between nitrate levels in drinking water and colon cancer has been inconclusive. A matched case-control and a nitrate ecology study were used to investigate the association between colon cancer mortality and nitrate exposure from Taiwan's drinking water. All colon cancer deaths of Taiwan residents from 1999 through 2003 were obtained from the Bureau of Vital Statistics of the Taiwan Provincial Department of Health. Controls were deaths from other causes and were pair matched to the cases by sex, year-of-birth, and year-of-death. Each matched control was selected randomly from the set of possible controls for each case. Data on nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) level of drinking water throughout Taiwan have been collected from Taiwan Water Supply Corporation (TWSC). The municipality of residence for cases and controls was assumed to be the source of the subject's nitrate exposure via drinking water. The adjusted odds ratios for colon cancer death for those with high NO3-N levels in their drinking water, as compared to the lowest tertile, were 0.98 (0.84-1.14) and 0.98 (0.83-1.16), respectively. The results of the present study show that there was no statistically significant association between NO3-N in drinking water at levels in this study and risk of death from colon cancer.     

Leaded gasoline — A cause of cancer

In the course of earlier tests the authors had found that the cancer mortality among 231 adult persons living adjacent to an automobile road was much higher than among persons living in a traffic-free section of the same town. Fifty-nine of the above individuals residing adjacent to the automobile road had been treated with calcium EDTA to eliminate lead. Only one of these later died of cancer. Of the persons who were not treated with calcium EDTA, on the other hand, 30 died of cancer, or ten times more percentage-wise.The existence of small lead deposits as well as the health-impairing effect of lead were demonstrated by measurements of lead and delta-aminolaevulinic acid in urine. After treatment with calcium EDTA, the lead content, as well as the amount of delta-aminolaevulinic acid, became normal. The concentrations of lead were found to be greater in suspended dust particles and in sediment dust along the automobile artery than elsewhere in the town.These findings, together with many other reports in the medical literature lead to the suspicion that lead in automobile gasoline, combined with other carcinogenic substances in automotive exhaust gases, increases the incidence of cancer.     

Living near nuclear power plants and thyroid cancer risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis

There has been public concern regarding the safety of residing near nuclear power plants, and the extent of risk for thyroid cancer among adults living near nuclear power plants has not been fully explored. In the present study, a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies was conducted to investigate the association between living near nuclear power plants and the risk of thyroid cancer. A comprehensive literature search was performed on studies published up to March 2015 on the association between nuclear power plants and thyroid cancer risk. The summary standardized incidence ratio (SIR), standardized mortality ratio (SMR), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effect model of meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses were performed by study quality. Thirteen studies were included in the meta-analysis, covering 36 nuclear power stations in 10 countries. Overall, summary estimates showed no significant increased thyroid cancer incidence or mortality among residents living near nuclear power plants (summary SIR = 0.98; 95% CI 0.87–1.11, summary SMR = 0.80; 95% CI 0.62–1.04). The pooled estimates did not reveal different patterns of risk by gender, exposure definition, or reference population. However, sensitivity analysis by exposure definition showed that living less than 20 km from nuclear power plants was associated with a significant increase in the risk of thyroid cancer in well-designed studies (summary OR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.17–2.64). Our study does not support an association between living near nuclear power plants and risk of thyroid cancer but does support a need for well-designed future studies.     

Development of quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments when the scientific data base is inadequate

The reasons for developing quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments are discussed along with a method for developing them which involves scientific judgement. In the situation considered here the regulatory needs are ahead of the science, which makes the development of the estimates on uncertainty more difficult, but not impossible. Quantitative estimates for all uncertainties involved in the estimation of risk resulting from exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in drinking water are developed and tabulated. By far the largest contribution to the uncertainty in the risk estimates for VOCs in drinking water are due to uncertainty in the extrapolation of the dose-response curve to low levels. The uncertainty due to extrapolation is on the order of 10⁴ and 10⁶. Other components of the analysis may contribute uncertainties of a few orders of magnitude. In general the largest uncertainties are in the toxicological data base and the manipulation of it needed to estimate risk. The data base and manipulations needed to estimate exposure due to VOCs in drinking water were at the more an order to magnitudes in uncertainty.     

A performance estimate for the detection of undeclared nuclear-fuel reprocessing by atmospheric 85Kr

To test the sensitivity of using atmospheric (85)Kr to detect undeclared separation of plutonium from irradiated nuclear-reactor fuel, measurements of atmospheric (85)Kr taken in Tsukuba, Japan are analyzed to determine: (1) a lower limit of detection for discovering anthropogenic (85)Kr emissions, (2) the probability of detecting plutonium separation at the Tokai Reprocessing Plant, and (3) the extent to which these results can be generalized to other sites. A LLD of at least 3.4 sigma=0.14 Bq/m(3) with a theoretical false-positive rate of 0.05% is recommended for safeguards' purposes. At this threshold, the continuous separation of 100, 300, and 900 g equivalent weapon-grade plutonium per day was found to correspond to 10%, 50%, and 80% probability of detection, respectively. The smallest detected concentration was for the continuous separation of 45 g/day, with a probability of detection of about 0.6%. It was found that the detection rate is determined predominantly by the weather.     

Inhalation of 210Po and 210Pb from cigarette smoking in Poland.

The carcinogenic etfect of 210Po and 210Pb with respect to lung cancer is an important problem in many countries with very high cigarette consumption. Poland has one of the highest consumptions of cigarettes in the world. The results of 210Po determination on the 14 most frequently smoked brands of cigarettes which constitute over 70% of the total cigarette consumption in Poland are presented and discussed. Moreover, the polonium content in cigarette smoke was estimated on the basis of its activity in fresh tobaccos, ash, fresh filters and post-smoking filters. The annual effective doses were calculated on the basis of 210Po and 210Pb inhalation with the cigarette smoke. The results of this work indicate that Polish smokers who smoke one pack (20 cigarettes) per day inhale from 20 to 215 mBq of 210Po and 210Pb each. The mean values of the annual effective dose for smokers were estimated to be 35 and 70 microSv from 210Po and 210Pb, respectively. For persons who smoke two packs of cigarettes with higher radionuclide concentrations, the effective dose is much higher (471 microSv yr(-1)) in comparison with the intake in diet. Therefore, cigarettes and the absorption through the respiratory system are the main sources and the principal pathway of 210Po and 210Pb intake of smokers in Poland.     

Dietary exposure to cadmium and risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundWith tobacco smoking, diet is the main source of cadmium (Cd) exposure in the general population. The carcinogenic and estrogenic activities of Cd make it a contaminant of potential concern for hormone-dependent cancers including breast cancer. Postmenopausal women represent the most appropriate population to investigate the possible impact of exogenous factors with potential estrogenic activity on breast cancer as, after menopause, their estrogenic influence is predominant.ObjectivesWe systematically reviewed available studies on the association between dietary exposure to Cd and breast cancer focusing on postmenopausal women. A meta-analysis combining the risk estimators was performed and potential sources of between studies heterogeneity were traced.MethodsStudies were searched from MEDLINE through 31 January 2015 and from the reference lists of relevant publications. Six eligible studies published between 2012 and 2014 were identified and relative risk estimates were extracted. Meta-rate ratio estimates (mRR) were calculated according to fixed and random-effect models. Meta-analyses were performed on the whole set of data and separate analyses were conducted after stratification for study design, geographic location, use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT), tumor estrogen receptor status (ER + or ER −), progesterone receptor status (PGR + or PGR −), body mass index (BMI), smoker status, zinc or iron intake.ResultsNo statistically significant increased risk of breast cancer was observed when all studies were combined (mRR = 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.89–1.19). Several sources of heterogeneity and inconsistency were identified, including smoker status, HRT use, BMI, zinc and iron intake. Inconsistency was also strongly reduced when only considering ER −, PGR −, tumors subgroups from USA and from Japan. The risks were, however, not substantially modified after stratifications. No evidence of publication bias was found.ConclusionThe present study does not provide support for the hypothesis that dietary exposure to Cd increases the risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women. Misclassification in dietary Cd assessment in primary studies could have biased the results towards a finding of no association.     

The risk assessment–policy gap: An example from the UK contaminated land regime

Risk-based regulation assumes that risk assessment can evaluate risks against policy objectives. However, policy goals are often ambiguous and require risk assessors to interpret them for use in risk assessment. This risk assessment-policy gap stems partly from normative and imprecise policy language but is rooted more fundamentally in society's uncertain expectations for the environment. Until this uncertainty is resolved, the democratic and regulatory effectiveness of risk regulation will be undermined by ad hoc policy decisions abdicated to risk assessors.     

A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe

Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant questions about the vulnerability of the human-environment system to global change. Scenarios were constructed for a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate. These scenarios were used as inputs in a range of ecosystem models in order to assess the response of ecosystem function as well as the changes in the services they provide. The framework was used to relate the impacts of changing ecosystem service provision for four sectors in relation to each other, and to combine them with a simple, but generic index for societal adaptive capacity. By allowing analysis of different sectors, regions and development pathways, the vulnerability assessment provides a basis for discussion between stakeholders and policymakers about sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

An estimate of regional and global O3 damage from precursor NOx and VOC emissions

The results of the ozone models of EMEP and Harwell are combined with the C-R (concentration- response) functions and economic valuation recommended by the ExternE Project of the European Commission. The paper is exploratory, to assemble the available information, establish likely priority impact categories, and make recommendations for future research. Impacts on health and agriculture are evaluated. Based on the EMEP results, aggregate regional (Europe-wide) estimates of ozone damage, allocated per ton of precursor emission, are derived. Calculations on the global scale, using results from the Harwell Global Ozone Model (and the same valuation per nL/L O₃) indicate that damages outside Europe are likely to also be significant although somewhat smaller. For the EMEP Model, the numbers per ton of precursor emission are approximately the same for NO_x and for VOC. For NO_x, a value around $1875 (uncertainty range 375 to 10 000) per Mg _{NO2 equi} was found; for VOC, approximately $1100 per Mg_VOC was found. There is much uncertainty, especially in the C-R functions, and current assessments of ozone damages are, at best, order of magnitude estimates. Even though the overlap between local, regional, and global models is not clear, the results suggest that ozone damage is dominated by regional impacts.     

Fuel poverty increases risk of mould contamination,regardless of adult risk perception & ventilation in social housing properties

IntroductionFuel poverty affects 2.4 million UK homes leading to poor hygrothermal conditions and risk of mould and house dust mite contaminations, which in turn increases risk of asthma exacerbation. For the first time we assess how fuel poverty, occupants' risk perception and use of mechanical ventilation mediate the risk of mould contamination in social housing.MethodsPostal questionnaires were sent to 3867 social housing properties to collect adult risk perception, and demographic and environmental information on occupants. Participant details were linked to data pertaining to the individual properties. Multiple logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios and confidence intervals while allowing for clustering of individuals coming from the same housing estate. We used Structured Equation Modelling and Goodness of Fit analysis in mediation analyses to examine the role of fuel poverty, risk perception, use of ventilation and energy efficiency.ResultsEighteen percent of our target social housing populations (671 households) were included into our study. High risk perception (score of 8–10) was associated with reduced risk of mould contamination in the bedrooms of children (OR 0.5 95% CI; 0.3–0.9) and adults (OR 0.4 95% CI; 0.3–0.7). High risk perception of living with inadequate heating and ventilation reduced the risk of mould contamination (OR 0.5 95% CI; 0.3–0.8 and OR 0.5 95% CI; 0.3–0.7, respectively). Participants living with inadequate heating and not heating due to the cost of fuel had an increased risk of mould contamination (OR 3.4 95% CI; 2.0–5.8 and OR 2.2 95% CI; 1.5–3.2, respectively). Increased risk perception and use of extractor fans did not mediate the association between fuel poverty behaviours and increased risk of mould contamination.DiscussionFuel poverty behaviours increased the risk of mould contamination, which corresponds with existing literature. For the first time we used mediation analysis to assess how this association maybe modified by occupant behaviours. Increased risk perception and use of extractor fans did not modify the association between fuel poverty and mould contamination. This suggests that fuel poor populations may not benefit from energy efficiency interventions due to ineffective heating and ventilation practices of those occupants residing participating households. Our findings may be modified by a complex interaction between occupant behaviours and the built environment. We found that participant age, occupancy, SES, pets, drying washing indoors, geographic location, architectural design/age of the property, levels of insulation and type of heating regulated risk of mould contamination.ConclusionFuel poverty behaviours affected around a third of participating households and represent a risk factor for increased exposures to damp and mouldy conditions, regardless of adult risk perception, heating and ventilation practices. This requires multidisciplinary approach to assess the complex interaction between occupant behaviours, risk perception, the built environment and the effective use of heating and ventilation practices.Study implicationsOur findings have implications for housing policies and future housing interventions. Effective communication strategies focusing on awareness and perception of risk may help address indoor air quality issues. This must be supported by improved household energy efficiency with the provision of more effective heating and ventilation strategies, specifically to help alleviate those suffering from fuel poverty.     

A quantitative integrated assessment of pollution prevention achieved by Integrated Pollution Prevention Control licensing

This paper presents an innovative, quantitative assessment of pollution avoidance attributable to environmental regulation enforced through integrated licensing, using Ireland's pharmaceutical-manufacturing sector as a case study. Emissions data reported by pharmaceutical installations were aggregated into a pollution trend using an Environmental Emissions Index (EEI) based on Lifecycle Assessment methodologies. Complete sectoral emissions data from 2001 to 2007 were extrapolated back to 1995, based on available data. Production volume data were used to derive a sectoral production index, and determine ‘no-improvement’ emission trends, whilst questionnaire responses from 20 industry representatives were used to quantify the contribution of integrated licensing to emission avoidance relative to these trends. Between 2001 and 2007, there was a 40% absolute reduction in direct pollution from 27 core installations, and 45% pollution avoidance relative to hypothetical ‘no-improvement’ pollution. It was estimated that environmental regulation avoided 20% of ‘no-improvement’ pollution, in addition to 25% avoidance under business-as-usual. For specific emissions, avoidance ranged from 14% and 30 kt a^− 1 for CO₂ to 88% and 598 t a^− 1 for SO_x. Between 1995 and 2007, there was a 59% absolute reduction in direct pollution, and 76% pollution avoidance. Pollution avoidance was dominated by reductions in emissions of VOCs, SO_x and NO_x to air, and emissions of heavy metals to water. Pollution avoidance of 35% was attributed to integrated licensing, ranging from between 8% and 2.9 t a^− 1 for phosphorus emissions to water to 49% and 3143 t a^− 1 for SO_x emissions to air. Environmental regulation enforced through integrated licensing has been the major driver of substantial pollution avoidance achieved by Ireland's pharmaceutical sector — through emission limit values associated with Best Available Techniques, emissions monitoring and reporting requirements, and performance targets specified in environmental management plans. This compliant sector offers a positive, but not necessarily typical, case study of IPPC effectiveness.     

Integration of environmental and human health risk assessment for industries using hazardous materials: a quantitative multi criteria approach for environmental decision makers

Environmental management, for which environmental and human health risk assessment is the first stage, is a requirement for industries both before construction and during operation in order to sustain improved quality of life in the ecosystem. Therefore, the aim of this study is to propose an approach that integrates environmental and human health risk assessment for industries using hazardous materials in order to support environmental decision makers with quantitative and directive results. Analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy logic are used as tools to handle problems caused by complexity of environment and uncertain data. When the proposed approach is implemented to a scenario, it was concluded that it is possible to define risk sources with their risk classes and related membership degrees in that classes which enable the decision maker to decide which risk source has priority. In addition, they can easily point out and rank the factors contributing those risk sources owing to priority weights of them. As a result, environmental decision makers can use this approach while they are developing management alternatives for unfounded and on-going industrial plants using hazardous materials.