Risk evaluation in Dutch land-use planning

In Dutch external safety policy, the acceptance of risk for the population in areas surrounding hazardous substances establishments is based on a limit value for individual risk (IR). Additionally, changes to societal risk (SR) must be justified. A specific software program (SAFETI-NL) with the associated Reference Manual Bevi Risk Assessments (RIVM, 2009) is legally required for the calculation of IR and SR. This prescribed “Bevi calculation method” forms the basis for decisions with important consequences for industry, land use planning and the protection of citizens. It is important that the outcome of calculations made with the prescribed method can be relied upon when making decisions about land use planning that affects both industry and population. This is the subject of this paper.The prescribed calculation method has been evaluated by performing a case study. The evaluation focussed on risk modelling of a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE) at an LPG filling station, an incident type that plays a significant role in Dutch external safety. The risk modelling of the BLEVE with the prescribed calculation method was found to have a number of serious deficiencies. It is concluded that the prescribed calculation method yields no reliable perspective on the safety of production, use and storage of hazardous substances, nor of possibilities to increase safety.Decision making should not only depend on quantification of IR and SR. Improving the safety-relevance of the prescribed calculation method requires an increase of the number of dimensions of the outcome of risk calculations in order to make feedback possible. It is recommended to incorporate additional, safety-relevant information into planning and decision-making processes. It is envisaged that a more far-reaching change of Dutch QRA practice is needed (medium to long term). In this context, a number of interesting elements have been noticed in decision-making procedures in other EU Member States.     

城市安全规划的可视化技术研究

城市安全规划是提高城市安全水平的重要手段 ,笔者分别介绍了利用GIS(地理信息系统 )技术实现安全规划可视化的方法 ;介绍了以安全规划对象的可视化组织、安全规划对象的可视化编辑、安全规划结果可视化、危险源危险性可视化等方面的研究成果。该系列成果及其应用有利于安全规划工作的自动化、智能化和工作绩效的提高。     

国内外应急准备规划体系比较研究

本文在对中国、美国、英国、澳大利亚、爱尔兰等国政府部门或咨询机构发布的大量应急准备规划相关的规范性指导文件的收集与分析的基础上,对这些国家在应急规划的分级分类、政策指导、规划过程、理论基础和规划工具等方面的情况进行了比较研究,分析了目前中国应急准备规划中存在的一些问题和需求。研究表明成熟的规划理论,符合国情的分级分类方法,规范的规划过程,具体详实、实用的指导文件和规划工具,是做好应急准备规划的基础。研究结果可为建立和完善中国应急准备规划体系及其理论与方法提供有益的启示和参考。     

化学工业园区消防规划探讨

针对化学工业园区的迅速发展,大型化工生产装置、储存装置日益增多,重大危险源数量不断增加,火灾、爆炸等重特大事故发生的可能性增大的现状,本文在化学工业园区安全规划工作实践的基础上,提出了化学工业园区消防规划的指导思想、原则和程序,确定了化学工业园区消防安全规划的一般内容,以期为化学工业园区消防安全规划的编制提供指导。     

城市规划中的环境保护对策思考

结合实际,对城市规划中的环境保护措施进行研究,首先阐述城市规划的原则要求,其次在论述城市建设与环境保护内容的基础上,总结当前城市规划中环境保护的问题现状,最后,对提升城市规划环境保护的措施分析,可以给相关领域的研究者提供参考。     

城市土地使用安全规划的方法与内容探讨

本文分析了几起与土地使用安全规划相关的重大事故案例,简要介绍了国内外土地使用安全规划的法律、法规要求,论述了安全规划的方法和风险标准,提出了我国城市土地使用安全规划的主要内容和程序,研究分析了安全专项规划和城市功能区安全治理规划的基本要求.     

企业重大事故应急预案编制探讨

针对企业编制预案时存在的共性问题,提出了企业预案的核心内容要求,明确了企业预案中应当包括的主要应急行动程序;采用基于应急功能分析的整体预案编制方法,提出了企业预案的基本框架,并对预案中有关报警、警报和备案等问题进行了讨论.     

关于城市规划中规划环评的探讨

城市规划是将持续发展、科学发展作为基础,对于城市发展中的经济结构、环境影响等内容加以规划,以发挥指导规范城市发展的作用。在城市规划的编制过程中要对环境影响加以评价。本文以城市规划与环境评价为出发点,提出规划环境影响评价存在的几点问题及解决思路,在更大的范围内保证城市规划的合理性,为政府相关部门科学决策提供依据。     

城市重大危险源安全规划方法及程序研究

城市重大危险源是影响城市安全水平的一个重要因素,对城市重大危险源的规划和整治是提高城市安全水平的一个重要途径.本文在"十五"国家科技攻关计划课题"城市公共安全规划与应急预案编制及其关键技术研究"第一专题"城市公共安全规划技术、方法与程序研究"的研究成果基础上,提出了城市重大危险源安全规划的一般性方法和技术要点,以期为城市重大危险源安全规划的编制提供技术指导.     

城市生态规划和生态修复中气象技术的应用研究

气候因素能够对城市生态规划和生态修复造成较大的影响,通过科学使用气象技术可以对城市生态规划进行改善,同时还能促进生态修复。本文主要对城市生态规划和生态修复中的气象技术进行分析,对气象技术在该领域的应用也做了一定的研究,旨在更好地促进城市生态规划和修复的发展。     

一种基于事故后果的重大危险源安全规划方法

介绍了一种基于事故后果的重大危险源安全规划方法。该方法详细阐述了“最坏”事故情景选择、事故后果阈值确定及后果伤害范围划分的方法,以危险源周边人群作为主要脆弱性目标,通过分析事故后果伤害范围和目标的脆弱性级别确定危险源与周边环境的兼容性。另外,以危险品仓储区为例,利用该方法对仓储区可能发生的事故后果影响范围进行计算,对仓储区选址的可行性进行分析。本文提出的重大危险源安全规划方法可为城市土地使用及危险源的安全规划提供参考。     

基于后果的土地利用安全规划方法在化工园区的应用

土地利用安全规划是预防和控制重大工业事故的重要手段,本文讨论国外常见重大危险源土地利用规划的三种方法,给出一个基于后果的土地利用安全规划的方法。提出火灾、爆炸和毒物泄漏等事故场景下的伤害阈值标准并以此进行事故后果伤害分区,给出脆弱性目标的分级原则,最终给出土地利用安全规划的判断准则。以南方某化工园区为实例应用此方法进行分析研究。本方法可应用于重大危险源或化工园区的安全规划、安全评价以及应急规划等工作。     

城市公共安全规划数据库设计探讨

城市公共安全规划过程需要收集大量有关城市的基础信息、安全信息和地理信息,这些信息不仅数量大,而且信息之间有着错综复杂的联系.为了便于数据的管理、共享和扩充,利用数据库技术对其进行管理.本文着重阐述了城市公共安全规划数据库的设计方法和数据库的内容设置.     

安全的自然属性和社会属性

通过对安全、安全系统、安全动力学等基本概念的探讨 ,提出了安全属性概念 ,拓展了安全、安全系统的内涵 ;同时运用科学学、哲学、系统科学和系统动力学等方法 ,从安全属性的角度研究了安全的规律性。笔者还指出安全系统动力学方法是研究安全规律性的途径。这些探讨和研究为安全科学的充实和发展起到了积极的推动作用     

化工园区安全规划主要内容探讨

随着我国经济的高速发展,各地先后建设了大量化工园区。近几年一些化工园区也陆续开展了园区整体安全评价与安全规划的试点工作。但由于对于化工园区安全规划的内容目前并无统一的标准,致使各化工园区安全规划的内容不尽相同,甚至差异很大。本文提出了化工园区安全规划的基本程序,并详细论述了化工园区安全规划的主要内容。     

Limitations of current risk assessment methods to foresee emerging risks: Towards a new methodology?

The objective of this work-in-progress is to investigate the potentialities but also the limitations of traditional risks analysis tools especially in the context of emerging technologies and develop a method facilitating the early detection of scenarios of accidents. This is certainly a challenge particularly for new industrial fields since, in this case, very little or no lesson from past accidents is available. It is believed that such situations cannot be conveniently treated using traditional risk assessment methods (HAZOP, FMEA, …) and typical examples are given. The reason is that those methods rely heavily on past accidents and are therefore “trapped” in them so that they are largely “inductive”. In terms of foreseeing the future, the shortcomings of inductive methods are recalled. The possibility to imagine the future with very little clues is then discussed on the ground of theoretical consideration and a way to do so is proposed (abduction, serendipity). Then on the basis of the observation of how the experts work and how discoveries are made, a potential new methodology is outlined.     

Cronbach's alpha reliability: Interval estimation,hypothesis testing,and sample size planning

Cronbach's alpha is one of the most widely used measures of reliability in the social and organizational sciences. Current practice is to report the sample value of Cronbach's alpha reliability, but a confidence interval for the population reliability value also should be reported. The traditional confidence interval for the population value of Cronbach's alpha makes an unnecessarily restrictive assumption that the multiple measurements have equal variances and equal covariances. We propose a confidence interval that does not require equal variances or equal covariances. The results of a simulation study demonstrated that the proposed method performed better than alternative methods. We also present some sample size formulas that approximate the sample size requirements for desired power or desired confidence interval precision. R functions are provided that can be used to implement the proposed confidence interval and sample size methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

安全控制论的理论基础和应用

用现代控制论原理,通过分析安全系统的结构及其特性,建立了安全系统状态方程和安全度的动态模型,探讨了安全系统的宏观预测及状态方程的参数辨识问题。运用本文所述方法,曾在几个工厂进行试点,取得良好效果。     

Quantitative risk assessment of the Italian gas distribution network

European Critical Infrastructures include physical resources, services, information technology facilities, networks and infrastructure assets, which, if disrupted or destroyed would have a serious impact on the health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of the Member States.The gas distribution network is a critical infrastructure and its failure can cause damage to structures and injury to people.The aim of this paper is to analyze and then assess the risk of the Italian high pressure natural gas distribution network.The paper describes an application of a methodology for quantitative risk assessment.Failure frequencies considered in risk calculation were found in the European Gas pipeline Incident data Group (EGIG) database, whereas consequences were computed as a function of pipe diameter and operating pressure for each section of the network. The results of this quantitative risk assessment is the determination of local and social risks for the Italian North East Area.     

突发事件警报通知系统关键要素规划技术研究*

为了解决自然灾害或生产安全事故风险影响区域的警报通知问题,针对突发事件警报通知系统规划与建设过程中的关键要素,通过相关突发事件特征归纳总结、警报通知需求分析、法规要求与现实差距对比等方法,结合国内外相关标准和研究成果,总结、提炼出规划和建设高时效性警报通知系统必须考虑的关键要素,并研究相关警报通知实现技术的适用性。最后,结合西南某油气开采企业的突发事件警报通知系统规划与建设实际,分析该企业警报通知系统的特点并有针对性地提出优化建议。研究结果可对相关企业或政府开展警报通知系统的规划与建设提供参考和借鉴。