System Dynamics to Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Under Water Supply Uncertainty1

Abstract: Water supply uncertainty continues to threaten the reliability of regional water resources in the western United States. Climate variability and water dispute potentials induce water managers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts. The Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in the state of Idaho is also facing these challenges in the sense that population growth and economic development strongly depend on reliable water resources from underground storage. Drought and subsequent water conflict often drive scientific research and political agendas because water resources availability and aquifer management for a sustainable rural economy are of great interest. In this study, a system dynamics approach is applied to address dynamically complex problems with management of the aquifer and associated surface‐water and groundwater interactions. Recharge and discharge dynamics within the aquifer system are coded in an environmental modeling framework to identify long‐term behavior of aquifer responses to uncertain future hydrological variability. The research shows that the system dynamics approach is a promising modeling tool to develop sustainable water resources planning and management in a collaborative decision‐making framework and also to provide useful insights and alternative opportunities for operational management, policy support, and participatory strategic planning to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts in human dimensions.     

An analytical framework for strategic delta planning: negotiating consent for long-term sustainable delta development

Sectoral planning on water, agriculture and urban development has not been able to prevent increased flood risks and environmental degradation in many deltas. Governments conceive strategic delta planning as a promising planning approach and develop strategic delta plans. Such plans are linked to actions and means for implementation in the short-term, in line with long-term strategic choices. This paper introduces an analytical framework that focuses on the role of actors, innovative solutions and participatory planning tools in negotiating consent for the strategic choices in a delta plan and its implementation. Cases of Bangladesh, the Netherlands and Vietnam are discussed as a plausibility probe to explore the framework's potential. The probe reveals that the framework is promising to explain the process and outcomes of strategic delta planning in urbanizing deltas. The paper ends with an initial research agenda to stimulate research and discussion on this new delta planning approach.     

Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning

To achieve a sustainable development, impacts on biodiversity of urbanisation, new infrastructure projects and other land use changes must be considered on landscape and regional scales. This requires that important decisions are made after a systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptual framework for the assessment of consequences of long-term development processes like urbanisation on biodiversity components, and for evaluating and visualising the impacts of alternative planning scenarios. The aim of this paper was to develop methods for integrating biodiversity issues in planning and strategic environmental assessment in an urbanising environment, on landscape and regional levels. In order to test developed methods, a case study was conducted in the region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, and the study area embraced the city centre, suburbs and peri-urban areas. Focal species were tested as indicators of habitat quality, quantity and connectivity in the landscape. Predictive modelling of habitat distribution in geographic information systems involved the modelling of focal species occurrences based on empirical data, incorporated in a landscape ecological decision support system. When habitat models were retrieved, they were applied on future planning scenarios in order to predict and assess the impacts on focal species. The scenario involving a diffuse exploitation pattern had the greatest negative impacts on the habitat networks of focal species. The scenarios with concentrated exploitation also had negative impacts, although they were possible to mitigate quite easily. The predictions of the impacts on habitats networks of focal species made it possible to quantify, integrate and visualise the effects of urbanisation scenarios on aspects of biodiversity on a landscape level.     

Ecosystem services assessments in local municipal decision making in South Africa: justification for the use of a business-based approach

The ecosystem services (ES) concept is being increasingly incorporated into environmental policy formulation and management approaches. The Corporate Ecosystem Services Review (ESR) is a framework used to assess the dependence and impact that a business has on ES. The success of the corporate experience of ES assessment provides an opportunity for adaption for local authority decision making. In this paper, the ESR tool was adapted to the South African setting at a local government level, and tested at two sites in the Msunduzi Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal. In testing the tool and gathering feedback from key stakeholders, it was found that there are both opportunities and challenges to this approach. Overall, however, it provides an opportunity for the systematic inclusion of ES assessment into existing regulatory frameworks for land-use planning and Integrated Environmental Management, whether in a strategic application, at a broader spatial (municipal) scale or in a specific locale within the municipality.     

RATES,RIGHTS, AND REGIONAL PLANNING IN THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California has for more than 70 years shaped the development of an immense urban region. The district's current strategic planning process therefore could have substantial effects on regional water planning and management. The rate restructuring phase of the planning process has produced a multiple component, cost of service based framework. This paper describes that framework as well as some criticisms that have been directed toward it. The rate restructuring was shaped, and for a while stalled, by old disputes among member agencies over rights to water supplied by Metropolitan. That controversy has diverted attention from the resource management implications of the rate structure. This paper presents an alternative future focused approach to regional integrated water resource planning for Southern California based on projections of current trends and anticipation of future events. This discussion raises the question of how regional integrated water resources planning of this sort may proceed, and what role Metropolitan will play in that process.     

Assessing barriers to effective spatial planning in Mauritius. A combination of SWOT and gap surveys

This paper examines the barriers to effective spatial planning in Mauritius. With its competitive advantage, due to its strategic position into Africa, the island is experiencing rapid development. However, current land development, especially considering land scarcity, reflects a lack of integrated strategic decision-making in the spatial planning system in Mauritius. Using a PESTLE framework and two quantitative surveys, namely a SWOT analysis addressed to the planners in Mauritius, followed by a gap analysis addressed to a wider group of professionals, the barriers have been identified. The result shows that overall significant barriers exist. The contributions of the research have been: first, in the methods adopted to identify such barriers towards effective spatial planning; second, in the identification of the barriers in order of importance; and third, in the formulation of strategies to address these barriers.     

Combining land-use planning and tenure security: a tenure responsive land-use planning approach for developing countries

There is tenure insecurity around land ownerships and land rights in most developing countries. There are also many land-use planning projects being implemented in these countries. Often, land-use planning exists in these countries but is not formally linked with tenure security. This study argues that combining them by conducting land-use planning in a way that promotes tenure security presents a new approach. A central premise for the rationale of this intervention is that processes of land-use planning may inadvertently increase tenure security. By way of methodology, it evaluates land-use planning case studies from Africa, Asia and South America. It uses the three case study examples to build a case for making tenure security one of the major planned outcomes of a land-use planning process and provides a detailed framework for operationalising the concept. Its main contribution to the literature is that it introduces the concept of tenure responsive land-use planning.     

Benefits and challenges of using an Assessment of Ecosystem Services approach in land-use planning

This research investigates the use of an Assessment of Ecosystem Services (AES) approach as a planning tool in Florida through the use of an online survey. Target respondents were professionals who had been involved in AES projects. The majority of the respondents perceive an AES approach as a comprehensive and holistic approach that results in better land-use planning decisions. However, AES does not appear to be widely used to guide planning decisions. Despite some challenges, respondents across multiple agencies and institutions in Florida are supportive of using AES in combination with traditional land-use planning tools. More rigorous testing and validation and clarification of guidelines for best practice could improve political and economic support and thereby facilitate the use of AES to guide land-use planning efforts.     

Assessing impacts on urban greenspace,waterways, and vegetation in urban planning

Parks, waterways, and vegetation enhance the well-being of urbanites and thus warrant consideration in planning and policy-making. It is, however, difficult to assess how land-use change may impact these features and how this in turn may impact well-being. I use a case-study approach to present a framework that combines geospatial and economic valuation techniques to generate indicators of the effects of land-use policies that alter these amenities on community well-being. This framework quantifies the impacts of land-use change on urban environmental amenities in a way that could help communities plan land use so as to maintain well-being as they urbanise.     

Fusing strategic risk and futures methods to inform long-term strategic planning: case of water utilities

Risks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions under uncertainty. When combined, these tools increase organisational competency to evaluate and manage long-term risks, improving the flexibility and agility of the organisation to deal with gross uncertainties. Here, we set out a framework to guide the assessment of strategic risks for long-term business planning, based on its application at Portugal’s largest water utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres. Our approach extends strategic risk assessment by incorporating scenario planning—a futures approach used to help the utility move beyond single point forecast of risks to focus on critical dimensions of uncertainty that are fundamental to the resilience of corporate objectives and their vulnerability to external pressures. We demonstrate how we combine two complementary approaches—risk and futures—and use them to assess (i) how a set of baseline strategic risks for a water utility evolves under alternative futures, (ii) the aggregate corporate-level risk exposure, and (iii) the process and responses needed to manage multiple, interdependent strategic risks. The framework offers a corporate approach to evolving strategic risks and improves a utility’s (i) knowledge of uncertainties, (ii) ability to assess the impacts of external developments over long time horizons and the consequences of actions and (iii) degree of flexibility to adapt to possible future challenges. The framework supports risk managers in their long-term strategic planning, through the appraisal and management of multiple, interdependent long-term strategic risks and can be replicated in other organisational contexts to bridge operational and corporate perspectives of enterprise risk.

     

Assessing Land-Use Impacts on Natural Resources

/ Much information is available on changes that occur in natural resources from both spatially-explicit data on environmental conditions and models of the interactions of these conditions and resources with human activities. The strategy for assessing land-use impacts on natural resources developed in this paper provides a framework for using relevant data and models to address questions of how management practices can promote both use and protection of resources. This assessment strategy integrates spatially explicit environmental data using geographic information systems (GIS) with computer models that simulate changes in land cover in response to land-use impacts. The computer models also simulate susceptibility of species to changes in habitat suitability and landscape patterns. The approach is applied to management of limestone barrens on the Oak Ridge Reservation in East Tennessee. Potential limestone barrens habitats are identified by overlaying appropriate soils, geology, slope, and land-use/land-cover conditions. Their validity is tested against known sites containing rare species that occur in these habitats. The location of habitats at risk in the aftermath of human activities is determined by using an available area model that identifies the size and proximity of sites that particular types of species can no longer use as habitat. The resulting risk map can be used in land management planning. The approach uses readily available in situ and remotely sensed data and is applicable to a wide range of locations and land-use scenarios. This approach can be refined based on needs identified by land managers and on the sensitivity of the results to the resolution of available resource information.KEY WORDS: Land management; Assessment; Habitat characterization; Limestone barrens; Ecological modeling; Geographic information systems     

Corporate strategy and viable future land use: planning for closure from the outset of mining

This paper provides an overview of the environmental impact of mining on viable future land use and underlines the imperative of improved environmental management and closure planning. It argues that pollution prevention, through planning for closure, can lead to cost-effective strategies for sustainable minerals development and viable future land use. This seems to be most true for greenfield sites since, generally, the earlier closure planning and pollution prevention is built into a project, the more cost-effective and environmentally benign closure will be. Further, for greenfield sites, pollution prevention techniques can be employed from the outset, at the stages of exploration and mine development, and then monitored and improved through the operation stage to closure, and can be kept in place to manage future land use.
The paper discusses how global changes in the industry, following the liberalisation of investment regimes, and mergers and strategic alliances between key firms, has, by virtue of the diffusion of new technology, led to further opportunities to prevent pollution and optimise future land use through planning for closure from the outset. The objectives and components of closure plans are also reviewed as the paper draws on case studies to highlight some of the possible constraints and challenges to pollution prevention that may be faced at the level of both public policy and corporate strategy. The article concludes by suggesting a forward-looking approach to integrated environmental management and viable future land-use planning based on a dynamic model for environmental management.     

The relevance of physical forces on land-use change and planning process

This study analysed the importance of physical forces on land-use change, on the planning framework in a Portuguese periurban area. A temporal matrix showing the trajectories of land transformation was obtained. A multivariate redundancy analysis explored the importance of physical parameters on temporal and spatial land-use change. A content analysis on urban or municipal master plans was made framing the importance of physical parameters on the planning process. The results highlighted a consistent trajectory of profound land-use changes with distinctive trajectories, with increasingly complex patterns with a limited dependence on physical variables. The trajectories were more related to the planning framework, where political actors and planning managers seemed to be most important. A theoretical model balancing three main components – physical forces, actors, and land transformation (DFA-C model) is proposed, reflecting the informal relationships between physical parameters and actors during the planning process.     

Water-smart growth planning: linking water and land in the arid urbanizing American West

Linking water and land is essential in planning for the future of the western United States. We propose the concept of ‘water-smart growth’ and explore its implications through incorporating water considerations into the SLEUTH land-use model. The urban growth trajectory in Cache County, Utah, is modeled from 2007 to 2030 under four different scenarios: current trend; smart growth; water-smart growth with moderate implementation; and water-smart growth with full implementation. Comparisons of simulation results illustrate the extent and ways in which water-smart growth would alter current established land-use growth patterns. The approach represents an initial step to better integrate land and water in urban growth modeling and planning. This study's purposes are to provide improved understanding and representation of linkages between water and land in urbanizing environments, offer insights from a set of modeled options, and demonstrate the significance of integrating land and water in planning practices.     

Incorporating Complex Adaptive Systems Theory into Strategic Planning: The Sierra Nevada Conservancy

Conservation organizations rely increasingly on integrated planning approaches that explicitly address social and economic goals while pursuing ecological conservation. Moreover, the spatial and temporal scale at which these organizations operate is growing. The Sierra Nevada Conservancy, established as a new state agency by California legislation in 2004 to pursue social, economic and ecological sustainability across a 25 million acre region, exemplifies this large-scale, integrated approach. Therefore, the new agency faces a complex set of policy objectives that must be pursued across a widely varying geography of social, economic and ecological conditions. Using the Conservancy's fire management program area as an example, the paper illustrates how application of an analytic framework from complex adaptive systems theory can guide the Conservancy to deploy its resources more effectively than broader-scale application of a single, agency-wide strategy relying on a more static model. Therefore, the complex adaptive systems framework offers promise in strategic planning. The paper illustrates how the model's four-stage cycle can be applied at the sub-regional and programmatic level to identify opportunities for agency intervention that address varying local conditions. This approach is likely to increase the effectiveness of programs for agencies facing similar complexities and challenges.     

Adaptive Management: From More Talk to Real Action

The challenges currently facing resource managers are large-scale and complex, and demand new approaches to balance development and conservation goals. One approach that shows considerable promise for addressing these challenges is adaptive management, which by now is broadly seen as a natural, intuitive, and potentially effective way to address decision-making in the face of uncertainties. Yet the concept of adaptive management continues to evolve, and its record of success remains limited. In this article, we present an operational framework for adaptive decision-making, and describe the challenges and opportunities in applying it to real-world problems. We discuss the key elements required for adaptive decision-making, and their integration into an iterative process that highlights and distinguishes technical and social learning. We illustrate the elements and processes of the framework with some successful on-the-ground examples of natural resource management. Finally, we address some of the difficulties in applying learning-based management, and finish with a discussion of future directions and strategic challenges.     

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATERSHED PLANNING IN WASHINGTON STATE1

ABSTRACT: This paper draws on interviews with Washington State Watershed Planning Leads (Planning Leads) and interactions with local watershed planning units to identify factors that may influence the inclusion of climate change in watershed planning efforts in Washington State. These factors include the interest of individual planning unit members in climate change; Planning Lead familiarity with climate impacts; the influence of trust, leadership, and “genetic knowledge” on planning units; and perceptions of strategic gain. The research also identifies aspects of the planning process that may create opportunities for addressing climate impacts in future planning. These aspects include continuation of watershed planning units after plans are developed; commitment to updating watershed plans; recognition of climate impacts in planning documentation; dedicated incentive funding; and the availability of hydrologic modeling tools for assessing hydrologic impacts. Additional types of technical assistance that could support integration of climate impacts are also identified. It is hoped that the insight provided by this analysis will help individuals involved in stakeholder‐based watershed planning recognize the various dynamics potentially affecting the inclusion of climate change in watershed planning and in doing so, contribute to the development of planning approaches and tools that will support local efforts to adapt to climate impacts.     

Integration of Environmental Assessment into the Regional Development Planning Process of the Galilee

/ The Galilee region on the northern edge of Israel constitutes more than 15% of the state's territory, supplies more than half of its drinking water needs, and is an important recreational resource and destination for Israelis. One of the main objectives of the plan for the Galilee was to devise a regional physical and economic development strategy for the years 1992-2007 that would arrest the trend of emigration of its residents, attract newly arrived immigrants to the region, and at the same time protect natural resources and environmental quality. This paper is limited to discussion of the environmental aspects of the plan. It analyzes spatial concepts for distribution of projected population growth, evaluates environmental impacts of alternative plans, and proposes a decision-making framework and tools for minimizing natural resources loss from development at the local level. Assessment of potential environmental impacts generated quantitative data of natural resources areas. Application of the data in the plan evaluation stage showed that the alternative that concentrated most of the new development in central Galilee was the second-best choice environmentally, but was preferred as the best choice for overall qualities. The planning study offers an alternative environmental impact assessment (EIA) process to the one presently used in Israel by incorporating environmental considerations at the initial plan-making stage and not at the plan-approval stage. It demonstrated that in order to be effective, environmental assessment and land-use planning should be seen as one effort that is integrated from the start and in each stage of the plan-making process.KEY WORDS: Environmental assessment; Development planning; Galilee     

A Case Study of Ecosystem Services in Urban Planning in Finland: Benefits,Rights and Responsibilities

The concept of ecosystem services is entering the agenda of land-use planning and scientists optimistically expect it to inform planners and decision-makers about the benefits that ecosystems provide. While tools and methods have been developed for mapping and valuing ecosystem services, only little attention has been paid to the practical application of the approach or its institutional preconditions and implications. We empirically analysed two urban planning processes for building residential areas in the outskirts of growing population centres in Finland. Our analysis of documents and interviews with planners focused on the benefits provided by ecosystems as well as the associated rights and responsibilities. We found that the concept ‘ecosystem service’ was not used, yet various benefits were identified. The rights of different stakeholders to ecosystem services were not explicitly identified, but many ecosystem services were perceived as public goods and particularly access to recreation was highlighted as an important justification for green areas. The results show that while the ecosystem services approach introduces new insights to land-use planning, it is still not embedded in the current practices or institutions. Operationalizing ecosystem services requires institutional adaptation, case-specific tailoring of methods, and deliberation among practitioners and stakeholders.     

Jordan’s climate change governance framework: from silos to an intersectoral approach

Jordan is not immune from climate change impacts. The complex characteristics (cross-boundary, multi-level, multi-sector, multi-agency settings, long-term challenges, and uncertainty) and long-term impacts of climate change confront Jordan’s decision-makers with a pressing question: Is the current governance framework adequate to respond coherently to the climate change impact, or is a new framework needed for future preparedness? To address this question, four qualitative research methods were applied to collect data reflecting diverse views about issues and in different contexts. Data were examined from different perspectives to aid in validating the conclusions. Results show that there are limitations in the current climate change governance framework. Better understanding of the intersectoral approach is necessary to develop appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies that recognize the full extent of climate change vulnerability, rather than viewing single sectors in isolation. Accordingly, an intersectoral coordination roadmap was proposed to support the implementation of Jordan’s climate change policy (2013–2020).