Simulation of Potential Oyster Density with Variable Freshwater Inflow (1965–2000) to the Caloosahatchee River Estuary, Southwest Florida, USA

Oyster beds are disappearing worldwide through a combination of over-harvesting, diseases, and salinity alterations in the coastal zone. Sensitivity of oysters to variable discharge and salinity is particularly acute in small sub-tropical estuaries subject to regulated freshwater releases. South Florida has sub-tropical estuaries where watershed flood control sometimes results in excessive freshwater inflow to estuaries during the wet season (May–Oct) and reduced discharge and increased salinities in the dry season (Nov–Apr). The potential to reserve freshwater accumulated during the wet season could offer the capacity to regulate freshwater at different temporal scales, thus optimizing salinity conditions for estuarine biota. The goal of this study was to use simulation modeling to explore the effects of freshwater inflows and salinity on adult oyster survival in the Caloosahatchee River Estuary (CRE) in southwest Florida. Water managers derived three different freshwater inflow scenarios for the CRE based on historical and modified watershed attributes for the time period of 1965–2000. Three different salinity time series were generated from the inflow scenarios at each of three sites in the lower CRE and used to conduct nine different oyster simulations. Overall, the predicted densities of adult oysters in the upstream site were 3–4 times greater in seasons that experienced reduced freshwater inflow (e.g., increased salinity) with oyster density in the lower estuary much less influenced by the inflows. Potential storage of freshwater reduced the frequency of extreme flows in the wet season and helped to maintain minimum inflow in the dry season near the estuarine mouth. Analyses of inflows indicated that discharges ranging from 0 to 1,500 cfs could promote favorable salinities of 10–25 in the lower CRE depending on wet versus dry season climatic conditions. This range of inflows is similar to that derived in other studies of the CRE and emphasizes the value of simulation models to help prescribe freshwater releases which benefit estuarine biota.     

Petrochemicals from oil,natural gas,coal and biomass: Production costs in 2030–2050

Methane, coal and biomass are being considered as alternatives to crude oil for the production of basic petrochemicals, such as light olefins. This paper is a study on the production costs of 24 process routes utilizing these primary energy sources. A wide range of projected energy prices in 2030–2050 found in the open literature is used. The basis for comparison is the production cost per t of high value chemicals (HVCs or light olefin-value equivalent). A Monte Carlo method was used to estimate the ranking of production costs of all 24 routes with 10,000 trials of varying energy prices and CO₂ emissions costs (assumed to be within $0–100/t CO₂; the total CO₂ emissions, or cradle-to-grave CO₂ emissions, were considered). High energy prices in the first three quarter of 2008 were tested separately. The main findings are:

• •Production costs: while the production costs of crude oil- and natural gas-based routes are within $500–900/t HVCs, those of coal- and biomass-based routes are mostly within $400–800/t HVCs. Production costs of coal- and biomass-based routes are in general quite similar while in some cases the difference is significant. Among the top seven most expensive routes, six are oil- and gas-based routes. Among the top seven least expensive routes, six are coal and biomass routes.
• •CO₂ emissions costs: the effect of CO₂ emissions costs was found to be strong on the coal-based routes and also quite significant on the biomass-based routes. However, the effect on oil- and gas-based routes is found to be small or relatively moderate.
• •Energy prices in 2008: most of the coal-based routes and biomass-based routes (particularly sugar cane) still have much lower production costs than the oil- and gas-based routes (even if international freight costs are included).

To ensure the reduction of CO₂ emissions in the long-term, we suggest that policies for the petrochemicals industry focus on stimulating the use of biomass as well as carbon capture and storage features for coal-based routes.     

The ecological traces of growth: economic growth,liberalization, increased consumption—and sustainable urban development?

Using the development of the building stock and physical infrastructure as an example, this article highlights the difficulties in combining continuous economic growth in wealthy countries with the requirements of environmentally sustainable development. There are clear limits as to how far we can get by means of ‘eco-efficiency’, and the effect of a transition to less environmentally harmful types of consumption is not sufficient if the consumption volume keeps on increasing. This is particularly evident for societal processes such as the construction of buildings and the development of physical infrastructure. Increased consumption is both a result of and a precondition for economic growth. The development of the building stock and physical infrastructure in cities is a case showing that economic growth—at any rate, in the longer term—can hardly be consistent with the preservation of species, ecosystems and food-production resources. The growth in the building stock also makes it increasingly difficult to limit energy use and reduce carbon–dioxide emissions. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water-Quality Monitoring and Biological Integrity Assessment in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida: Status, Trends, and Loadings (1988–1994)

a production in the central, south central, and the south segments of the lagoon. In a system as large and complex as the lagoon, N and P limitations are potentially subject to significant spatial and temporal variability. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TN) was higher in the north (1.25 mg/liter) and lower in the south (0.89 mg/liter). The reverse pattern was observed for total P (TP), i.e., lowest in the north (0.03 mg/liter) and highest at the south (0.14 mg/liter) ends of the IRL. This increased P concentration in the SIRL appears to have a significantly large effect on chlorophyll a production compared with the other segments, as indicated by stepwise regression statistics. This relationship can be expressed as follows: South IRL [chlorophyll a] =−8.52 + 162.41 [orthophosphate] + 7.86 [total nitrogen] + 0.38 [turbidity]; R ²= 0.98**.     

National benefits,local costs? Local residents' views on environmental and social effects of large‐scale mining in Chingola,Zambia

This study examined the environmental and social effects of large‐scale mining in Chingola, Zambia. Data was collected through semi‐structured interviews with 164 residents living close to Zambia's largest open pit mine, key informants and desk analysis of secondary data. Quantitative data was analysed using the chi‐square test, one sample T‐test and two sample Z‐proportions test, while qualitative data was analysed using content analysis. Results show that the residents reported being most affected by sulphur dioxide air emissions and noise pollution due to the proximity of the copper smelter and heavy moving machinery to their residences. The residents received domestic water containing rust and copper ore particles from the water utility company which draws raw water from the mine. Although the mine was a source of employment for locals, over 4,000 jobs (representing a 33% decrease) have been lost over a period of 4 years, negatively affecting the local economy. Mine management attributed the job losses to high production costs and mechanization of mining processes. The residents perceived the job losses to have led to crime, alcohol abuse and prostitution among youths as well as a general increase in poverty levels. Analysis of air emissions data from the mine found elevated levels of dust, cadmium, copper and lead pollutants. Key informants from Nchanga Mine reported implementing bioremediation to reduce soil contamination by the heavy metals and recycling SO₂ to produce sulphuric acid. The study recommends an increase in social corporate responsibility from the mine management to ensure residents derive more substantive benefits from their proximity to the mine.     

Modeling the Effects of Potential Salinity Shifts on the Recovery of Striped Bass in the Savannah River Estuary,Georgia–South Carolina,United States

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research.     

Role of non-timber forest products in sustaining forest-based livelihoods and rural households' resilience capacity in and around protected area: a Bangladesh study†

People in the developing world derive a significant part of their livelihoods from various forest products, particularly non-timber forest products (NTFPs). This article attempts to explore the contribution of NTFPs in sustaining forest-based rural livelihood in and around a protected area (PA) of Bangladesh, and their potential role in enhancing households' resilience capacity. Based on empirical investigation, our study revealed that local communities gather a substantial amount of NTFPs from national park despite the official restrictions. Twenty seven percent households (HHs) of the area received at least some cash benefit from the collection, processing and selling of NTFPs, and NTFPs contribute to HHs' primary, supplementary and emergency sources of income. NTFPs also constituted an estimated 19% of HHs' net annual income, and were the primary occupation for about 18% of the HHs. HHs' dependency on nearby forests for various NTFPs varied vis-à-vis their socio-economic condition, as well as with their location from the park. Based on our case study, the article also offers some clues for improving the situation in PA.     

The convergence of alternative food networks within “rural development” initiatives: the case of the New Rural Reconstruction Movement in China†

Rural sociologists and geographers have conceptualised different rural development trajectories including “the agri-industrial model”, “the post-productivist model” and “the rural development model”. Alternative food networks (AFNs) are increasingly recognised as a “forerunner” and a critical component of the emerging “rural development model” in the West. Meanwhile, Marsden and Franklin [2013. Replacing neoliberalism: theoretical implications of the rise of local food movements. Local Environment, 18 (5), 636–641] pointed out that there is a “local trap” in the current conceptualisation of AFNs that overemphasises their local embeddedness and heterogeneity. This “local trap” marginalises AFNs and, therefore, hinders their potential for transforming the industrialised conventional food system. The convergence and scaling-up of fragmented AFNs have been recognised as important ways to address this marginalisation issue and thus have attracted considerable attention. However, current studies of the convergence of AFNs focus mainly on the role of food-centred organisations without recognising the role of the emerging “rural development” initiatives in the convergence of AFNs. Based on in-depth interviews with key stakeholders and analysis of secondary data, this paper uses the New Rural Reconstruction Movement (NRRM), an emerging alternative rural development movement in China, as an example to illustrate how the NRRM opens up a novel space for the convergence of AFNs. We argue that the interrelationship between AFNs and rural development is indeed reciprocal. The NRRM, following the “rural development” trajectory, functions as a hub for the convergence and scaling-up of various alternative food initiatives. Strategies for achieving convergence include constructing a “common ground” for these initiatives, establishing national alliances and organisations, sharing knowledge and exchanging personnel among them.     

A weighted fuzzy linear programming model in economic input–output analysis: an application to risk management of energy system disruptions

Climate change exposes economic systems to numerous risks, including reduced agricultural production and electric power supply shortages. The interdependent nature of economic systems causes disruptions in any sector to cascade to other sectors via forward and backward linkages. This work develops an optimization model with which allocation of scarce goods or resources can be optimized; the model uses an overall index of satisfaction of fuzzy economic output goals under conditions of scarcity caused by climatic disruptions. The proposed model includes a vulnerability measure that integrates information elicited from expert judgment. A case study based on a scenario of drought-induced electricity shortage in the Philippine economy is examined. Results show that trade, transportation and service-oriented industries suffer losses in gross domestic product in the Philippine case.     

Special section: advancing the role of cities in climate governance – promise,limits, politics

This special issue contributes to scholarly debates about the role of cities in global climate governance, reflecting on the promise, limits, and politics of cities as agents of change. It takes an empirically-informed approach drawing on multiple diverse geographical and political contexts. Overall, the special issue aims to stimulate reflection and debate about where understanding and practice needs improvement to advance the role of cities in global climate governance. Key questions that are addressed in the special issue include: To what extent do real world experiences confirm or disconfirm the high expectations of cities as agents and sites of change in addressing global climate change as expressed in urban climate governance literature? In what ways do internal political dynamics of cities enable or constrain urban climate governance? How is climate governance in cities enabled and constrained by interactions with broader governance levels? In what ways can climate governance in cities be advanced through critical attention to the previous issues?     

“Unwritten,unsaid, just known”: the role of Indigenous knowledge(s) in water planning in Australia

Water planning processes in Australia have struggled to account for Indigenous interests and rights in water, including the use of Indigenous knowledge in water management. In exploring the role of Indigenous knowledge in government-led water planning processes, how might tensions between Western scientific and Indigenous knowledges be lessened? Drawing on two case studies from northern Australia we examine how Indigenous knowledge is represented and managed as a different social knowledge to that of Western science in a management context where legal and planning conventions assume priority. The role of Indigenous (social) knowledges in developing options and strategies for sustainable water management is contingent upon the participation of Indigenous people in water planning. We suggest that water planning processes must contain the possibility of an explicit approach to mutual recognition and consequent translation of the conceptual and pragmatic bases of water management and planning in both Western scientific and Indigenous domains.     

Erratum to: Elephants Also Like Coffee: Trends and Drivers of Human–Elephant Conflicts in Coffee Agroforestry Landscapes of Kodagu,Western Ghats,India

Kodagu district produces 2% of the world’s coffee, in complex, multistoried agroforestry systems. The forests of the district harbour a large population of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus). The combined effects of high elephant density and major landscape changes due to the expansion of coffee cultivation are the cause of human–elephant conflicts (HEC). Mitigation strategies, including electric fences and compensation schemes implemented by the Forest Department have met with limited success. Building on previous studies in the area, we assessed current spatial and temporal trends of conflict, analysed local stakeholders’ perceptions and identified factors driving elephants into the estates. Our study, initiated in May 2007, shows that the intensity of HEC has increased over the last 10 years, exhibiting new seasonal patterns. Conflict maps and the lack of correlation between physical features of the coffee plantations and elephant visits suggest elephants move along corridors between the eastern and western forests of the district, opportunistically foraging when crossing the plantations. Dung analyses indicate elephants have selectively included ripe coffee berries in their diet. This is, to our knowledge, the first report of wild elephants feeding on coffee berries. If this new behaviour spreads through the population, it will compound an already severe conflict situation. The behavioural plasticity, the multiplicity of stakeholders involved, the difficulty in defining the problem and the limits of technical solutions already proposed suggest that HEC in Kodagu has the ingredients of a “wicked” problem whose resolution will require more shared understanding and problem solving work amongst the stakeholders.     

RESEARCH: Comparison of Temporal Trends in Ambient and Compliance Trace Element and PCB Data in Pool 2 of the Mississippi River, USA, 1985–1995

6+ ), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), selenium (Se), zinc (Zn), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Water-column, bed-sediment, and fish-tissue (fillets) data collected by five government agencies comprised the ambient data set; effluent data from five registered facilities comprised the compliance data set. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test indicated that 33% of temporal trends in all data were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Possible reasons for this were low sample sizes, and a high percentage of samples below the analytical detection limit. Trends in compliance data were more distinct; most trace elements decreased significantly, probably due to improvements in wastewater treatment. Seven trace elements (Cr, Cd, Cu, Pb, Hg, Ni, and Zn) had statistically significant decreases in wastewater and portions of either or both ambient water and bed sediment. No trends were found in fish tissue. Inconsistency in trends between ambient and compliance data were often found for individual constituents, making overall similarity between the data sets difficult to determine. Logistical differences in monitoring programs, such as varying field and laboratory methods among agencies, made it difficult to assess ambient temporal trends.     

Importance of Sediment–Water Interactions in Coeur d’Alene Lake,Idaho, USA: Management Implications

A field study at Coeur dAlene Lake, Idaho, USA, was conducted between October 1998 and August 2001 to examine the potential importance of sediment–water interactions on contaminant transport and to provide the first direct measurements of the benthic flux of dissolved solutes of environmental concern in this lake. Because of potential ecological effects, dissolved zinc and orthophosphate were the solutes of primary interest. Results from deployments of an in situ flux chamber indicated that benthic fluxes of dissolved Zn and orthophosphate were comparable in magnitude to riverine inputs. Tracer analyses and benthic-community metrics provided evidence that solute benthic flux were diffusion-controlled at the flux-chamber deployment sites. That is, effects of biomixing (or bioturbation) and ground-water interactions did not strongly influence benthic flux. Remediation efforts in the river might not produce desired water-quality effects in the lake because imposed shifts in concentration gradients near the sediment–water interface would generate a benthic feedback response. Therefore, development of water-quality models to justify remediation strategies requires consideration of contaminant flux between the water column and underlying sediment in basins that have been affected by long-term (decadal) anthropogenic activities.     

Elephants Also Like Coffee: Trends and Drivers of Human–Elephant Conflicts in Coffee Agroforestry Landscapes of Kodagu,Western Ghats,India

Kodagu district produces 2% of the world’s coffee, in complex, multistoried agroforestry systems. The forests of the district harbour a large population of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus). The combined effects of high elephant density and major landscape changes due to the expansion of coffee cultivation are the cause of human–elephant conflicts (HEC). Mitigation strategies, including electric fences and compensation schemes implemented by the Forest Department have met with limited success. Building on previous studies in the area, we assessed current spatial and temporal trends of conflict, analysed local stakeholders’ perceptions and identified factors driving elephants into the estates. Our study, initiated in May 2007, shows that the intensity of HEC has increased over the last 10 years, exhibiting new seasonal patterns. Conflict maps and the lack of correlation between physical features of the coffee plantations and elephant visits suggest elephants move along corridors between the eastern and western forests of the district, opportunistically foraging when crossing the plantations. Dung analyses indicate elephants have selectively included ripe coffee berries in their diet. This is, to our knowledge, the first report of wild elephants feeding on coffee berries. If this new behaviour spreads through the population, it will compound an already severe conflict situation. The behavioural plasticity, the multiplicity of stakeholders involved, the difficulty in defining the problem and the limits of technical solutions already proposed suggest that HEC in Kodagu has the ingredients of a “wicked” problem whose resolution will require more shared understanding and problem solving work amongst the stakeholders.     

Patterns of Livestock Predation by Carnivores: Human–Wildlife Conflict in Northwest Yunnan, China

Alleviating human–carnivore conflict is central to large carnivore conservation and is often of economic importance, where people coexist with carnivores. In this article, we report on the patterns of predation and economic losses from wild carnivores preying on livestock in three villages of northern Baima Xueshan Nature Reserve, northwest Yunnan during a 2-year period between January 2010 and December 2011. We analyzed claims from 149 households that 258 head of livestock were predated. Wolves (Canis lupus) were responsible for 79.1 % of livestock predation; Asiatic black bears (Selenarctos thibetanus) and dholes (Cuon alpinus) were the other predators responsible. Predation frequency varied between livestock species. The majority of livestock killed were yak–cattle hybrids or dzo (40.3 %). Wolves killed fewer cattle than expected, and more donkeys and horses than expected. Wolves and bears killed more adult female and fewer adult male livestock than expected. Intensified predation in wet season coincided with livestock being left to graze unattended in alpine meadows far away from villages. On average, carnivore attacks claimed 2.1 % of range stock annually. This predation represented an economic loss of 17 % (SD = 14 %) of the annual household income. Despite this loss and a perceived increase in carnivore conflict, a majority of the herders (66 %) still supported the reserve. This support is primarily due to the benefits from the collection of nontimber resources such as mushrooms and medicinal plants. Our study also suggested that improvement of husbandry techniques and facilities will reduce conflicts and contribute to improved conservation of these threatened predators.     

Vegetation Type Conversion in Los Peñasquitos Lagoon,California: An Examination of the Role of Watershed Urbanization

Environmental Management - The objective of this study was to examine the role that watershed urbanization has played in changes to the vegetation types within Los Peñasquitos Lagoon, San...