An analysis of cyclists’ speed at combined pedestrian and cycle paths

Abstract

Objective: In Sweden, cyclists, pedestrians, and moped riders share the space on combined pedestrian and cycle paths, and their speeds may differ greatly. Both actual speed and speed differences can potentially influence the number of accidents on the shared paths. As a starting point, this article studies the speed component and how cyclists’ speed varies at pedestrian and cycle paths depending on the day, week, and year; road user composition; and road design.

Methods: Three data sources were used: Existing measurements of cycle speed and flow in 3 different Swedish municipalities, Eskilstuna (1 site, January–December 2015), Linköping (6 sites, 4?weeks in September–October 2015), and Stockholm (10 sites, 1–5?days in August–September 2015); complementary measurements of cycle speed and flow in Linköping (4 sites, 1–10?days in August–September 2016) and Stockholm (1 site, only part of 2?days in August 2016) were also conducted within the project, in addition to roadside observations of bicycle types at the 5 new sites.

Results: The average speed of cyclists on the paths varied between 12.5 and 26.5?km/h. As expected, the lower average speeds were found in uphill directions, near intersections, and on paths with high pedestrian flows. The higher speeds were found in downhill directions and on commuter routes. In all, 70%–95% of road users observed on pedestrian and cycle paths were cyclists, and 5%–30% were pedestrians. The most common type of bicycle was a comfort bike, followed by a trekking bike. Electric-assisted bicycles and racer bikes occurred at all sites, with proportions of 1%–10% and 1%–15%, respectively. The 2 sites with the highest proportion of electric-assisted bicycles and racer bicycles also had the highest average speeds. The differences in average speed throughout the day, week, and year could only be assessed at one of the sites. Only small differences were found, with the most noticeable being that the average speed was lower in January and February (13.8?km/h) compared to the rest of the year (15.3–16.1?km/h). The average speed was also lower during daytime (14.7?km/h) than during other parts of the day (15.4–15.8?km/h).

Conclusions: The relationship between bicycle type and measured speed was not entirely clear, but the results suggest that paths with higher proportions of electric and racer bicycles have higher average speeds. There also appears to be a connection between average speed and the width of the distribution; that is, the higher the average speed, the wider the speed distribution. More research is needed on how speed levels and speed variance affect accident risk.     

Head injuries in child pedestrian accidents--in-depth case analysis and reconstructions

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate head injuries, injury risks, and corresponding tolerance levels of children in car-to--child pedestrian collisions. METHODS: An in-depth accident analysis was carried out based on 23 accident cases involving child pedestrians. These cases were collected with detailed information about pedestrians, cars, and road environments. All 23 accidents were reconstructed using the MADYMO program with mathematical models of passenger cars and child pedestrians developed at Chalmers University of Technology. The contact properties of the car models were derived from the European New Car Assessment Program (EuroNCAP) subsystem tests. RESULTS: The accident analysis demonstrated that the head was the most frequently and severely injured body part of child pedestrians. Most accidents occurred at impact speeds lower than 40 km/h and 98% of the child pedestrians were impacted from the lateral direction. The initial postures of children at the moment of impact were identified. Nearly half (47%) of the children were running, which was remarkable compared with the situation of adult pedestrians. From accident reconstructions it was found that head impact conditions and injury severities were dependent on the shape and stiffness of the car front, impact velocity, and stature of the child pedestrian. Head injury criteria and corresponding tolerance levels were analyzed and discussed by correlating the calculated injury parameters with the injury outcomes in the accidents. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing head injuries should be set as a priority in the protection of child pedestrians. HIC is an important injury criterion for predicting the risks of head injuries in child pedestrian accidents. The tolerance level of head injuries can have a considerable variation due to individual differences of the child pedestrians. By setting a suitable speed limit and improving the design of car front, the head injury severities of child pedestrians can be reduced.     

Factors affecting pedestrian behaviors at signalized crosswalks: An empirical study

Introduction: Safety of pedestrians depends, among other factors, on their behavior while crossing the road. This study aims to assess behaviors of pedestrians at signalized crosswalks. Method: Following a literature review and a pilot study, 25 vital pedestrian crossing factors and behaviors were determined. Then data was randomly collected for 708 pedestrians at 10 lighted crossings in Sharjah (UAE), five at road intersections and five mid-block crossings. Results: Results indicated that 17.4% of pedestrians observed crossed partly or fully on red and that crossing speed was 1.22 m/s, on the average, which is slightly faster than most speeds recorded in the literature. Moreover, female pedestrians were more likely to cross while chatting with others, less likely to cross on red, and more likely to walk slower than male pedestrians. Results also showed that pedestrians who crossed at road intersections walked slower than those who crossed at mid-block crossings. It was also found that longer red pedestrian times and narrower roads tended to encourage pedestrians to cross on red and that the majority of pedestrians did not look around before crossing. Practical implications: Use of the Health Belief Model for pedestrian safety are discussed.     

一种基于社会力的行人-自行车混合疏散模型及模拟研究

当公共安全事件发生时,借助自行车进行疏散是一种重要方式。针对这种情况,开展了行人-自行车混合疏散建模和模拟研究。为了更好量化自行车的超越行为,引入了临时期望运动方向,改变自行车的自驱力,实现对自行车避让超越行为的细致描述;修改了单车模型来更新自行车的运动,建立了一种多层次的自行车运动子模型。将该模型与行人社会力模型相结合,得到一种基于社会力的行人-自行车混合疏散模型“MixSF”。模拟发现,MixSF能够较好地再现混合疏散中的超越行为。在实验条件下,发现个体密度小于0.548人/m²时,自行车占比的增加能加快疏散;相对密度大于0.81时,自行车失去疏散速度优势。     

Personal exposure risk factors in pedestrian accidents in Bahrain

Pedestrians are involved in traffic accidents due to many reasons. It is generally thought that personal background of pedestrians has an effect on their involvement rate in the road traffic accidents. Identifying these characteristics would lead to a better understanding of pedestrian accident pattern so that the resources in the field of education, engineering, and enforcement could be used in better ways. This study attempts to test the hypothesis mentioned earlier. The investigated personal background includes the following characteristics: gender, type, age, nationality, and educational background. The data was reduced from vast number of pedestrian injury accident reports in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The actual accident records were categorized according to these characteristics and compared to their exposure risk. It was assumed that the exposure risk, which is the expected number of accidents for each category of the pedestrians, was in proportion to their presence in the pedestrian population. Another study was carried out in parallel to observe the pedestrian characteristics in Bahrain. The results of the two studies were analyzed statistically using Chi-square method to compare the actual to the expected accident frequencies. The whole Kingdom of Bahrain population statistics were used wherever the information on the pedestrian population was not available. The findings revealed that personal characteristics considered in this study have significant influence on pedestrian’s involvement in traffic accidents. The results also showed that pedestrians with the following characteristics were probably showing risk to exposure to accidents more than other categories: male, young (0–12 years) and old (50 years and over), non-local, and those with low educational background.     

Powered two-wheeler drivers' risk of hitting a pedestrian in towns

IntroductionThe risk of collision between pedestrians and powered two-wheelers is poorly understood today. The objective of this research is to determine the risk for powered two-wheeler drivers of hitting and injuring a pedestrian per kilometer driven in towns and to compare this risk with that run by four-wheeled vehicle drivers.MethodUsing the bodily injury accidents recorded by the police on nine roads in the city of Marseille in 2011 and a campaign of observations of powered two-wheeler traffic, we estimated the risk per kilometer driven by powered two-wheeler drivers of hitting a pedestrian and compared it with the risk run by four-wheeled vehicle drivers.ResultsThe results show that the risk for powered two-wheeler drivers of hitting and injuring a pedestrian is significantly higher than the risk run by four-wheeled vehicle drivers. On the nine roads studied, it is on average 3.33 times higher (95% CI: 1.63; 6.78). Taking four more years into account made it possible to consolidate these results and to tighten the confidence interval.ConclusionThere does indeed seem to be problems in the interactions between pedestrians and powered two-wheeler users in urban traffic. These interaction problems lead to a higher risk of hitting and injuring a pedestrian for powered two-wheeler drivers than for four-wheeled vehicle drivers. The analysis of the police reports suggests that part of this increased risk comes from filtering maneuvers by powered two-wheelers.Practical applicationsPossible countermeasures deal with the urban street layout. Measures consisting in reducing the width and the number of traffic lanes to a strict minimum and installing medians or pedestrian islands could be an effective way for the prevention of urban accidents between pedestrians and powered two-wheelers.     

The effects of personal music devices on pedestrian behaviour

It has been suggested that pedestrians listening to personal music devices (PMD) are more likely to be involved in accidents than those not listening to PMDs. Though it has been demonstrated that pedestrians on cell phones exhibit less cautionary behaviour when street crossing ( [Hatfield and Murphy, 2007], [Nasar et al., 2008] and [Stavrinos et al., 2009]), little research has been conducted with PMD users. In the present study, cautionary behaviour (e.g., looking before crossing a road) was observed and recorded for pedestrians with or without PMDs. Amongst males, pedestrians listening to PMDs displayed more looking behaviour than those not listening to PMDs. Females showed no differences between the two conditions. Thus, unlike cell phones, PMDs do not decrease the cautionary behaviour of pedestrians. This suggests that cell phones and PMDs are two different types of distractions, and this needs to be taken into account when developing methods to prevent pedestrian accidents in the future.     

A study of pedestrian and bicyclist exposure to head injury in passenger car collisions based on accident data and simulations

The objective was to assess head injury risks and kinematics of adult pedestrians and bicyclists in primary impact to the passenger cars and secondary impact to the ground using real world accident data and computer reconstructions of the accidents. For this purpose, a subsample of 402 pedestrians and 940 bicyclists from the GIDAS database, Germany, was used for the statistical analysis, from which 22 pedestrian and 18 bicyclist accidents were further selected for reconstruction. PC-Crash was used to calculate impact conditions, such as vehicle impact velocity, vehicle kinematic sequence, and thrown distance. These conditions were employed to identify the initial conditions in reconstruction in MADYMO program. A comparable analysis was conducted based on the results from accident analysis and computer reconstructions for the impact configurations and the resulting injury patterns of pedestrians and bicyclists in view of head injury risks. Differences in HIC, head-relative impact velocity, linear acceleration, maximum angular velocity and acceleration, contact force, thrown distance, Wrap Around Distance (WAD), and head contact time were evaluated. Injury risk curves were generated by using a logistic regression model for vehicle impact velocity. The results indicate that bicyclists suffered less severe injuries compared with severity of pedestrian injuries. In the selected samples, the AIS 2+ and AIS 3+ head injury risks for pedestrians are 50% probability at impact speed of 38.87 km/h and 54.39 km/h respectively, while for bicyclists at 53.66 km/h and 58.89 km/h respectively. The findings of high injury risks suggested that in the area with high frequency car-pedestrian accidents, the vehicle speed limit should be 40 km/h, while in the area with high frequency car-cyclist accidents the vehicle speed limit should be 50 km/h.     

Investigation of accidents involving powered two wheelers and bicycles – A European in-depth study

Introduction: The number of road fatalities have been falling throughout the European Union (EU) over the past 20 years and most Member States have achieved an overall reduction. Research has mainly focused on protecting car occupants, with car occupant fatalities reducing significantly. However, recently there has been a plateauing in fatalities amongst ‘Vulnerable Road Users’ (VRUs), and in 2016 accidents involving VRUs accounted for nearly half of all EU road deaths. Method: The SaferWheels study collected in-depth data on 500 accidents involving Powered Two-Wheelers (PTWs) and bicycles across six European countries. A standard in-depth accident investigation methodology was used by each team. The Driver Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAM) was used to systematically classify accident causation factors. Results: The most common causal factors related to errors in observation by the PTW/bicycle rider or the driver of the other vehicle, typically called ‘looked but failed to see’ accidents. Common scenarios involved the other vehicle turning or crossing in front of the PTW/bicycle. A quarter of serious or fatal injuries to PTW riders occurred in accidents where the rider lost control with no other vehicle involvement. Conclusions: Highly detailed data have been collected for 500 accidents involving PTWs or bicycles in the EU. These data can be further analyzed by researchers on a case-study basis to gain detailed insights on such accidents. Preliminary analysis suggests that ‘looked but failed to see’ remains a common cause, and in many cases the actions of the other vehicle were the critical factor, though PTW rider speed or inexperience played a role in some cases. Practical Applications: The collected data can be analyzed to better understand the characteristics and causes of accidents involving PTWs and bicycles in the EU. The results can be used to develop policies aimed at reducing road deaths and injuries to VRUs.     

Analysis of car-to-bicycle approach patterns for developing active safety devices

Objective: To reduce the severity of injuries and the number of cyclist deaths in traffic accidents, active safety devices providing cyclist detection are considered to be effective countermeasures. The features of car-to-bicycle collisions need to be known in detail to develop such safety devices.

Methods: The study investigated near-miss situations captured by drive recorders installed in passenger cars. Because similarities in the approach patterns between near-miss incidents and real-world fatal cyclist accidents in Japan were confirmed, we analyzed the 229 near-miss incident data via video capturing bicycles crossing the road in front of forward-moving cars. Using a video frame captured by a drive recorder, the time to collision (TTC) was calculated from the car's velocity and the distance between the car and bicycle at the moment when the bicycle initially appeared.

Results: The average TTC in the cases where bicycles emerged from behind obstructions was shorter than that in the cases where drivers had unobstructed views of the bicycles. In comparing the TTC of car-to-bicycle near-miss incidents to the previously obtained results of car-to-pedestrian near-miss incidents, it was determined that the average TTC in car-to-bicycle near-miss incidents was significantly longer than that in car-to-pedestrian near-miss incidents.

Conclusions: When considering the TTC in the test protocol of evaluation for safety performance of active safety devices, we propose individual TTCs for evaluation of cyclist and pedestrian detections, respectively. In the test protocols, the following 2 scenarios should be employed: bicycle emerging from behind an unobstructed view and bicycle emerging from behind obstructions.     

Estimating the value of life and injury for pedestrians using a stated preference framework

IntroductionThe incidence of pedestrian death over the period 2010 to 2014 per 1000,000 in North Cyprus is about 2.5 times that of the EU, with 10.5 times more pedestrian road injuries than deaths. With the prospect of North Cyprus entering the EU, many investments need to be undertaken to improve road safety in order to reach EU benchmarks.MethodWe conducted a stated choice experiment to identify the preferences and tradeoffs of pedestrians in North Cyprus for improved walking times, pedestrian costs, and safety. The choice of route was examined using mixed logit models to obtain the marginal utilities associated with each attribute of the routes that consumers chose. These were used to estimate the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) to save walking time and to avoid pedestrian fatalities and injuries. We then used the results to obtain community-wide estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) saved, the value of an injury (VI) prevented, and the value per hour of walking time saved.ResultsThe estimate of the VSL was €699,434 and the estimate of VI was €20,077. These values are consistent, after adjusting for differences in incomes, with the median results of similar studies done for EU countries. The estimated value of time to pedestrians is €7.20 per person hour.ConclusionsThe ratio of deaths to injuries is much higher for pedestrians than for road accidents, and this is completely consistent with the higher estimated WTP to avoid a pedestrian accident than to avoid a car accident. The value of time of €7.20 is quite high relative to the wages earned.Practical applicationsFindings provide a set of information on the VRR for fatalities and injuries and the value of pedestrian time that is critical for conducing ex ante appraisals of investments to improve pedestrian safety.     

Modeling pedestrian gap crossing index under mixed traffic condition

IntroductionThere are a variety of challenges faced by pedestrians when they walk along and attempt to cross a road, as the most recorded accidents occur during this time. Pedestrians of all types, including both sexes with numerous aging groups, are always subjected to risk and are characterized as the most exposed road users. The increased demand for better traffic management strategies to reduce the risks at intersections, improve quality traffic management, traffic volume, and longer cycle time has further increased concerns over the past decade.MethodThis paper aims to develop a sustainable pedestrian gap crossing index model based on traffic flow density. It focusses on the gaps accepted by pedestrians and their decision for street crossing, where (Log-Gap) logarithm of accepted gaps was used to optimize the result of a model for gap crossing behavior. Through a review of extant literature, 15 influential variables were extracted for further empirical analysis. Subsequently, data from the observation at an uncontrolled mid-block in Jalan Ampang in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia was gathered and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Binary Logit Model (BLM) techniques were employed to analyze the results.Results and conclusionsFrom the results, different pedestrian behavioral characteristics were considered for a minimum gap size model, out of which only a few (four) variables could explain the pedestrian road crossing behavior while the remaining variables have an insignificant effect. Among the different variables, age, rolling gap, vehicle type, and crossing were the most influential variables. The study concludes that pedestrians’ decision to cross the street depends on the pedestrian age, rolling gap, vehicle type, and size of traffic gap before crossing.Practical applicationsThe inferences from these models will be useful to increase pedestrian safety and performance evaluation of uncontrolled midblock road crossings in developing countries.     

公共建筑环境下行人行为特性及拥挤机理研究综述

介绍国内外对于公共建筑环境下行人行为特性及拥挤机理方面的研究成果,主要包括:自由流情况下的行人运动速度,人群运动的最佳密度,行人的年龄、文化、性别、退让距离、温度、旅行目的、运动方向和建筑设施类型对行人流速度和流量的影响,以及行人流的密度和速度关系。成果显示:各国学者在人群的速度、密度和流量之间的相互关系方面研究较多,所得的结论趋于一致;但对于影响行人流速度和流量的各种因素并没有进行深入的研究,尤其是拥挤情况下行人的心理状态和拥挤事故的相互关系。     

Turning at intersections and pedestrian injuries

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if precrash vehicle movement is associated with the severity of pedestrian injury. METHODS: We used comprehensive information on pedestrian, vehicle, and injury-related characteristics gathered in the Pedestrian Crash Data Study (PCDS), conducted by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) (1994-1998). The odds ratio of severe injuries (injury severity score >/= 15) and crash fatality rate for right- and left-turn collisions at intersection compared with straight vehicle movement were compared using a logistic regression model and taking into consideration the type of vehicle and age of the pedestrians as potential effect modifiers. Later we evaluated the intermediate effect of impact speed on the association by adding it to the logistic regression model. RESULTS: Of 255 collisions eligible for this analysis, the proportion of pedestrian hit during straight movement, right turns, and left turns were 48%, 32%, and 10%, respectively. Sixty percent of the pedestrians in left-turn crashes and 67% of them in right-turn collisions were hit from their left side. For straight movements the pedestrians were equally likely to be struck beginning from the left or right side of the street.After adjustment for pedestrian's age, vehicle movement was a significant predictor of severe injuries (p < 0.0001) and case fatality (p = 0.003). The association between vehicle precrash movement and severe injuries (p = 0.551) and case fatality (p = 0.912) vanished after adjusting for impact speed. This indicated that the observed association was probably the result of the difference in impact speed and not the precrash movement of the vehicle. CONCLUSION: Pedestrian safety interventions that aim at environmental modifications, such as crosswalk repositioning, might be the most efficient means in reducing right- or left-turn collisions at intersection, while pedestrians' behavioral modifications should be the priority for alleviating the magnitude of the collisions that happen in vehicles' straight movements.     

Using retro-reflective cloth to enhance drivers’ judgment of pedestrian walking direction at night-time

Purpose: Fatal pedestrian collisions are over-represented at night and poor conspicuity is believed to be a leading causative factor. Retro-reflective clothing enhances pedestrian conspicuity, particularly when placed in a biological motion or “biomotion” configuration. In this study, we explored how various retro-reflective clothing configurations affected the ability to judge the direction of a pedestrian walking across the road, which has important implications for collision avoidance. Methods: Participants included 21 young drivers (mean age 21.6 ± 2.0 years) with normal vision. A closed-road circuit was used to assess the accuracy of drivers’ judgement of the direction of walking of a pedestrian at night-time wearing one of five different clothing configurations: four with retro-reflective materials placed in different locations (Biomotion, Legs + Torso, Torso Only, Legs Only), and a control wearing only black clothing (Street). Participants were seated in a stationary vehicle with low beam headlamps, 135 m from a pedestrian, who walked across the road from both sides, in different directions (towards the car, straight across the road, or away from the car). Outcome measures included drivers’ response accuracy and confidence ratings for judging pedestrian walking direction. Results: Accuracy in judging pedestrian walking direction differed significantly across the clothing configurations (p < 0.001). Response accuracy was significantly higher for the Biomotion configuration (80% correct), compared to the other retro-reflective (Legs + Torso 64%; Torso Only 53%; Legs Only 50%) and Street configurations (33%). Similar trends were noted for confidence ratings across the clothing conditions, yet the relationship between confidence ratings and response accuracy within each clothing configurations was poor. Conclusions: The use of retro-reflective clothing in a biomotion configuration facilitated the highest accuracy and confidence in drivers’ judgment of pedestrian walking direction, compared to other configurations. These findings highlight the importance of using biomotion clothing for pedestrians at night, to not only facilitate drivers’ earlier recognition of pedestrians, but also increase their accuracy in determining the walking direction of pedestrians as they cross the road. Practical applications: The use of clothing incorporating retro-reflective material in a biomotion configuration for pedestrians crossing roads at night provides enhanced cues for drivers regarding the presence and walking direction of pedestrians.     

An analysis of motorcycle injury and vehicle damage severity using ordered probit models

Problem: Motorcycles constitute about 19% of all motorized vehicles in Singapore and are generally overrepresented in traffic accidents, accounting for 40% of total fatalities. Method: In this paper, an ordered probit model is used to examine factors that affect the injury severity of motorcycle accidents and the severity of damage to the vehicle for those crashes. Nine years of motorcycle accident data were obtained for Singapore through police reports. These data included categorical assessments of the severity of accidents based on three levels. Damage severity to the vehicle was also assessed and categorized into four levels. Categorical data of this type are best analyzed using ordered probit models because they require no assumptions regarding the ordinality of the dependent variable, which in this case is the severity score. Various models are examined to determine what factors are related to increased injury and damage severity of motorcycle accidents. Results: Factors found to lead to increases in the probability of severe injuries include the motorcyclist having non-Singaporean nationality, increased engine capacity, headlight not turned on during daytime, collisions with pedestrians and stationary objects, driving during early morning hours, having a pillion passenger, and when the motorcyclist is determined to be at fault for the accident. Factors leading to increased probability of vehicle damage include some similar factors but also show some differences, such as less damage associated with pedestrian collisions and with female drivers. In addition, it was also found that both injury severity and vehicle damage severity levels are decreasing over time.     

The "unintended pedestrian" on expressways

OBJECTIVE: To explore the epidemiology of pedestrian deaths in Dallas County, Texas, and to compare factors associated with pedestrian deaths on expressways versus those that occurred on other roadways. METHODS: We studied all pedestrian deaths among persons 15 years of age or older in Dallas County, Texas, from 1997 to 2004 by linking data from Medical Examiner's office, the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, and local police records. Univariate and multivariate analysis compared various factors associated with death on an expressway. RESULTS: Among 437 pedestrian deaths who were 15 years of age or older, 197 (45%) occurred on expressways; the proportion that occurred on expressways was highest among 15- to 29-year-olds (65%) and was lower with advancing age group (p < 0.01, chi square for trend). At least 36% of these expressway-related pedestrian deaths were known to have been "unintended pedestrians," who had exited a vehicle after being on the roadway, compared with 11% of pedestrian deaths on surface streets (OR 4.6, 95% CI, 2.7-8.1), and this was also highest among younger age groups. Pedestrian deaths on an expressway, compared with deaths on surface streets, remained strongly associated with having been an "unintended pedestrian" (OR 6.2, 95% CI, 3.1-14.0), after controlling for several other variables, including age, sex, race, nighttime of crash, and alcohol involvement. CONCLUSIONS: Expressways are the predominant site of fatal pedestrian crashes among young adults in this urban area. Since many of these deaths were "unintended pedestrians," procedures for management of occupants of disabled vehicles on expressways could have a large impact on pedestrian deaths in young adults.     

大城市无信号控制人行横道行人过街延误分析

从心理学角度,以大城市无信号控制人行横道过街行人为研究对象,对行人过街延误进行定量分析研究。以北京市两个典型无信号控制人行横道为实例进行交通调查分析,计算行人的临界穿越间隙,安全穿越间隙出现的概率,及行人穿越该处的总延误时间。计算结果表明:观测路段车流中提供的安全穿越间隙的概率比较低;行人强行穿越的重要原因是行人过街延误超出了行人等待心理极限;验证了模型的精度;找出了观测路段交通秩序混乱的原因。针对大城市无信号控制人行横道的分析结果,提出了具体的改进建议和交通改善措施,为国内大城市行人交通安全管理提供了决策依据和有益参考。     

Hierarchical ordered model for injury severity of pedestrian crashes in South Korea

Introduction: The high percentage of fatalities in pedestrian-involved crashes is a critical social problem. The purpose of this study is to investigate factors influencing injury severity in pedestrian crashes by examining the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the regions where crashes occurred. Method: To understand the correlation between the unobserved characteristics of pedestrian crashes in a defined region, we apply a hierarchical ordered model, in which we set crash characteristics as lower-level variables and municipality characteristics as upper-level. Pedestrian crash data were collected and analyzed for a three-year period from 2011 to 2013. The estimation results show the statistically significant factors that increase injury severity of pedestrian crashes. Results: At the crash level, the factors associated with increased severity of pedestrian injury include intoxicated drivers, road-crossing pedestrians, elderly pedestrians, heavy vehicles, wide roads, darkness, and fog. At the municipality level, municipalities with low population density, lower level of financial independence, fewer doctors, and a higher percentage of elderly residents experience more severe pedestrian crashes. Municipalities ranked as having the top 10% pedestrian fatality rate (fatalities per 100,000 residents) have rates 7.4 times higher than municipalities with the lowest 10% rate of fatalities. Their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics also have significant differences. The proposed model accounts for a 7% unexplained variation in injury severity outcomes between the municipalities where crashes occurred. Conclusion: To enhance the safety of vulnerable pedestrians, considerable investments of time and effort in pedestrian safety facilities and zones should be made. More certain and severe punishments should be also given for the traffic violations that increase injury severity of pedestrian crashes. Furthermore, central and local governments should play a cooperative role to reduce pedestrian fatalities. Practical applications: Based on our study results, we suggest policy directions to enhance pedestrian safety.