Assessment of renewable energy potential and policy in Turkey – Toward the acquisition period in European Union

This paper aims to assess the renewable energy capacity of Turkey in order to consider main priorities in the energy policy of Turkey. In this paper, renewable energy potential and regulatory conditions are discussed in Turkey in comparison with European Union. The results of the study implemented within the framework of EnviroGRIDS project indicated a promising yet very susceptible future for the implementation of renewable energy power plants in Turkey. The forecasts have shown that the solar power potential utilization is becoming more significant after 2020. The projections for 2050 indicate that electricity consumption from small and medium renewable energy sources including solar and wind will constitute 15% of the total, whereas the solar thermal will constitute around 16%. Geothermal and other renewables will remain around 3%. According to the high demand scenario, in 2050 the share of hydropower in overall electricity generation will be 12%, followed by solar power at 7% and wind power at 3%. Additionally, renewable energy policy and regulations in Turkey and in EU are overviewed in this study. On the contrary to EU, the constant feed-in tariff amount does not consider capital investments of specific energy sources in Turkey that brings disadvantage to the implementation. However, new regulations published and currently applied should be accepted as milestones in acquisition period of Turkey in EU.     

The role of social, political, and economic interests in promoting state green electricity policies

State governments in the United States have adopted a number of policies to encourage the production of electricity from “green” energy sources. While these state-level policies have been shown to stimulate green electricity development, the rate at which such policies have been adopted by the states differs significantly. This paper examines the potential influence of a state's particular social, political, and economic interests on its propensity to adopt green electricity policies. We use an empirical model that combines various social, political and economic indicators as explanatory variables of a state's likelihood to adopt four specific green electricity policies: renewable portfolio standards, net metering rules, public benefits funds, and generation disclosure rules. Using binary logistics regressions, the results suggest that social interests, measured by the level of income, the level of education, and the degree of participation in environmental lobbying groups, are positively linked to the adoption of green electricity policies. Similarly, political interests as measured by the pro-environment voting by states’ representatives in the U.S. Congress, also play a positive role in the adoption of such policies.     

Climate change mitigation policy paradigms—national objectives and alignments

The aim of this paper is to assess how policy goals in relation to the promotion of green growth, energy security, pollution control and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions have been aligned in policies that have been implemented in selected countries during the last decades as a basis for discussing how a multi objective policy paradigm can contribute to future climate change mitigation. The paper includes country case studies from Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea and the United States covering renewable energy options, industry, transportation, the residential sector and cross-sectoral policies. These countries and regions together contribute more than two thirds of global GHG emissions. The paper finds that policies that are nationally driven and that have multiple objectives, including climate-change mitigation, have been widely applied for decades in both developing countries and industrialised countries. Many of these policies have a long history, and adjustments have taken place based on experience and cost effectiveness concerns. Various energy and climate-change policy goals have worked together in these countries, and in practice a mix of policies reflecting specific priorities and contexts have been pursued. In this way, climate-change mitigation has been aligned with other policy objectives and integrated into broader policy packages, though in many cases specific attention has not been given to the achievement of large GHG emission reductions. Based on these experiences with policy implementation, the paper highlights a number of key coordination and design issues that are pertinent to the successful joint implementation of several energy and climate-change policy goals.     

基于可再生能源配额制的东部沿海地区能源结构优化问题探讨

通过借鉴国外发展可再生能源的经验,分析了我国能源供需分布格局及其区际能源平衡的特点,论证了实施可再生能源配额制在东部沿海地区能源结构优化过程中的意义及其途径。研究表明:①2010年,全国狭义可再生能源配额目标为5.1%,广义可再生能源配额目标为18.4%;②在东部沿海各省份均实现了广义配额目标的前提下,东部沿海地区可再生能源发电占其电力需求总量和能源消费总量的比重分别上升到18.4%和3.05%,能源结构得到优化;③为此,西部水电开发可达到全国总量的63.8%,小水电发电量可占全国总量的90.6%,实现西部优势再生能源的优先开发。     

我国取消电价补贴的经济影响——基于电价管制及完全竞争市场的分析

通过构建电力部门细分的CGE模型,分别在电价管制和完全竞争市场背景下,评估了取消电价交叉补贴和可再生能源电价补贴,以及引入碳税政策并将碳税收入转移支付给风电及光伏行业的经济影响.研究发现:取消电价交叉补贴对GDP有负面影响,而取消可再生能源电价补贴后GDP有所提升;相比完全竞争市场,电价管制市场背景下取消电价交叉补贴对GDP的负面冲击强度增加了0.003%,而取消可再生能源电价补贴对GDP的促进作用幅度则相对减小0.056%;同时取消两种补贴时,在电价管制市场背景下GDP相比基准情景下降了0.022%,而在完全竞争市场背景下GDP则增加了0.038%.电价管制市场背景下取消电价补贴对电力结构及能源结构影响较小;而在完全竞争市场背景下取消电价补贴将刺激传统电力消费并导致碳排放有所增加.引入碳税政策并将碳税收入转移支付给风电及光伏行业可以有效控制碳排放并促进电力结构和能源结构改善,但会对行业总产出和GDP产生更大的负面冲击.我国未来应适度放开电价管制,并采取诸如适时征收碳税并将其收入转移支付给风电和光伏行业的支持性政策,推动我国能源结构优化和节能减排目标的实现.     

Portfolio-Based Electricity Generation Planning: Policy Implications For Renewables And Energy Security

Renewable generating technologies offer an effective means for climate change mitigation. Policy makers, however, are wary because of the widespread perception that these technologies cost more than conventional alternatives so that increasing their deployment will raise overall electricity generating costs. Energy planning represents an investment-decision problem. Investors commonly evaluate such problems using portfolio theory to manage risk and maximize portfolio performance under a variety of unpredictable economic outcomes. Energy planners need to similarly abandon their reliance on traditional, “least-cost” stand-alone kWh generating cost measures and instead evaluate conventional and renewable energy sources on the basis of their portfolio cost – their cost contribution relative to their risk contribution to a mix of generating assets. Energy security generally focuses on the threat of abrupt supply disruptions. This paper suggests a more profound aspect: mitigating fossil price volatility. An extensive body of research indicates that fossil volatility significantly disrupts the economies of consuming nations, potentially exacting hundreds of billions of dollars from the US and EU economies alone. Energy security is reduced when countries hold inefficient portfolios that are needlessly exposed to fossil price risks. This paper describes essential portfolio-theory ideas and uses three case studies to illustrate how electricity-generating mixes can benefit from additional shares of wind, geothermal and other renewables. Compared to existing, fossil-dominated mixes, efficient portfolios reduce generating cost while including greater renewables shares in the mix thereby enhancing energy security. Though counter-intuitive, the idea that adding more costly renewables can actually reduce portfolio-generating cost is consistent with basic finance theory. An important implication is that in dynamic and uncertain environments, the relative value of generating technologies must be determined not by evaluating alternative resources, but by evaluating alternative resource portfolios.     

Global Biomass Energy Potential

The intensive use of renewable energy is one of the options to stabilize CO₂atmospheric concentration at levels of 350 to 550ppm. A recent evaluation of the global potential of primary renewable energy carried out by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sets a value of at least 2800EJ/yr, which is more than the most energy-intensive SRES scenario forecast for the world energy requirement up to the year 2100. Nevertheless, what is really important to quantify is the amount of final energy since the use of renewable sources may involve conversion efficiencies, from primary to final energy, different from the ones of conventional energy sources. In reality, IPCC does not provide a complete account of the final energy from renewables, but the text claims that using several available options to mitigate climate change, and renewables is only one of them, it is possible to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration at a low level. In this paper, we evaluate in detail biomass primary and final energy using sugarcane crop as a proxy, since it is one of the highest energy density forms of biomass, and through afforestation/reforestation using a model presented in IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR). The conclusion is that the primary-energy potential for biomass has been under-evaluated by many authors and by IPCC, and this under-evaluation is even larger for final energy since sugarcane allows co-production of electricity and liquid fuel. Regarding forests we reproduce IPCC results for primary energy and calculate final energy. Sugarcane is a tropical crop and cannot be grown in all the land area forecasted for biomass energy plantation in the IPCC/TAR evaluation (i.e. 1280Mha). Nevertheless, there are large expanses of unexploited land, mainly in Latin America and Africa that are subject to warm weather and convenient rainfall. With the use of 143Mha of these lands it is possible to produce 164EJ/yr (1147GJ/hayr or 3.6W/m²on average) of primary energy and 90EJ/yr of final energy in the form of liquid fuel (alcohol) and electricity, using agricultural productivities near the best ones already achievable and biomass gasification technology. More remarkable is that these results can be obtained with the operation of 4,000 production units with unitary capacity similar to the largest currently in operation. These units should be spread over the tropical land area yielding a plantation density similar to the one presently observed in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, where alcohol and electricity have been commercialized in a cost-effective way for several years. Such an amount of final energy would be sufficiently large to fulfill all the expected global increase in oil demand, as well as in electricity consumption by 2030, assuming the energy demand of such sources continues to grow at the same pace observed over the last two decades. When sugarcane crops are combined with afforestation/reforestation it is possible to show that carbon emissions decline for some IPCC SRES scenarios by 2030, 2040 and 2050. Such energy alternatives significantly reduce CO₂emissions by displacing fossil fuels and promote sustainable development through the creation of millions of direct and indirect jobs. Also, it opens an opportunity for negative CO₂emissions when coupled with carbon dioxide capture and storage.     

Carbon emissions and management scenarios for consumer-owned utilities

An important subset of the utility sector has been scarcely explored for its ability to reduce carbon dioxide emissions: consumer-owned electric utilities significantly contribute to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, but are often excluded from energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. They sell a quarter of the nation's electricity, yet the carbon impact of these sales is not well understood, due to their small size, unique ownership models, and high percentage of purchased power for distribution. This paper situates consumer-owned utilities in the context of emerging U.S. climate policy, quantifying for the first time the state-by-state carbon impact of electricity sales by consumer-owned utilities. We estimate that total retail sales by consumer-owned utilities account for roughly 568 million metric tons of CO₂ annually, making this sector the 7th largest CO₂ emitter globally, and examine state-level carbon intensities of the sector in light of the current policy environment and the share of COU distribution in the states. Based on efficiency and fuel mix pathways under conceivable regulations, carbon scenarios for 2030 are developed.     

我国农村能源政策以及收入水平对农户生活能源需求的影响研究

针对传统能源使用过程中产生的环境、气候问题,由中央政府制定并实施的农村能源政策倡导农户使用多种清洁能源及技术。同时,商品能源逐步成为当下农户生活能源的重要组成部分。“并举式”的能源政策是否造成甚至扩大不同能源、技术的需求差异,这一结果是否符合政策的初衷和目标?基于此,论文研究并分析2005—2014年农村能源政策以及收入水平对农户生活能源需求的影响。结果表明：政策的实施加剧了存在替代关系的能源、技术需求间的此消彼长;政策的溢出效应促进了部分商品能源需求;收入的提高对部分能源需求产生了正向作用。建议制定兼顾清洁能源以及商品能源的农村能源发展战略和政策,实现政策的精准发力,同时加强能源基础设施的建设和管理。     

Rural electrification under liberal reforms: the case of Peru

Liberal reform programmes in developing countries were not designed with the need to extend electricity supplies to rural areas. This paper focuses on the Peruvian experience, examining the impact of electricity reform policies on the characteristics of rural electrification. In rural areas, electrification levels have traditionally been the lowest in the country – making them less or non-profitable for private firms. Only in 2002 did the government introduce a specific Rural Electrification Law, which was intended to promote electrification within the context of a liberalised market. This paper draws upon an analysis of both this piece of legislation and stakeholder interviews, indicating that there exists a need to look further into the evolving relationship between the private and public sectors and how it affects the rural poor. This study forms part of the RESURL international research project on renewable energy for sustainable rural livelihoods in developing countries, funded by the UK Government's Department for International Development (DfID).     

Renewable energy resources and technologies in Nigeria: present situation, future prospects and policy framework

Nigeria is endowed with abundant energy resources, both conventional and renewable, whichprovide her with immense capacity to develop an effective national energy plan. However, introduction of renewable energyresources into the nation's energy mix have implications on itsenergy budget. The national energy supply system has been projected intothe future using MARKAL, a large scale linear optimization model.However, this model may not be absolutely representative of the highlynon-linear future of renewable energy. Results of the model reveal that under onlya least cost constraint, only large hydro power technology is the prominentcommercial renewable energy technology in the electricity supply mix of thecountry. Despite the immense solar energy potentials available, solar electricity generation is attractive only under severeCO2 emissions mitigation of the nation's energy supply system. Similarly, the penetration of small-scale hydro power technology in theelectricity supply mix is favoured only under CO₂ emissionsconstraints. Due to economy of scale, large hydropower technology takes the lion share of all the commercial renewableenergy resources share for electricity generation under any CO₂emissions constraint. These analyses reveal that some barriers exist to thedevelopment and penetration of renewable energy resources electricity production in Nigeria's energy supplysystem. Barriers and possible strategies to overcome them arediscussed. Intensive efforts and realistic approachtowards energy supply system in the country will have to be adopted inorder to adequately exploit renewable energy resources and technologiesfor economic growth and development.     

中欧节能减排政策比较

欧盟国家开展节能减排较早,并积累了丰富的经验。比较了在金融危机影响下欧盟与中国在节能减排法律框架、管理方式、经济政策、产业政策和技术创新方面的异同,提出中国应该借鉴欧盟国家的先进经验,完善现有的节能减排政策体系,实现经济和社会的可持续发展。     

重大技术变革与能源地缘政治转型

技术进步是能源地缘政治演进的物质基础,重大技术变革驱动能源利用形式的迭代升级。从能源转型的历史与现实出发,初步建立技术变革与地缘政治研究的理论分析框架。重大技术变革是推动能源转型的动力,而能源转型引发能源供需关系的改变,进而催生新的能源地缘政治格局。技术变革是能源地缘政治博弈的焦点。随着第四次工业革命的到来,在地理变量维度中稀土、钴、锂等能源关键元素成为大国争夺核心,而在科技变量维度中颠覆性能源技术则成为引领能源产业变革的关键。技术竞争、新供需关系与新地缘关系一同重塑了新能源地缘政治格局。新能源技术的发展对能源安全产生重大影响,一方面能源大国的博弈格局发生变化,能源外交的运用方式随之改变;另一方面与油气相关的地缘冲突将趋于减少,但电力断供将成为地缘政治博弈的新武器。     

上海市电力CO_2排放特征及减排途径分析

电力作为一种二次能源,不同发电方式和发电技术的电力CO2排放系数差别很大。研究发现,上海市2009年电力消费侧的CO2排放高于电力生产侧1 551万t,即上海市净调入电力的CO2排放为1 551万t,可见外来电CO2排放的正确测算对全市及各终端消费部门的CO2排放有重要影响。从排放系数来看,消费侧的CO2排放系数只有生产侧排放系数的81%,得益于外来电中可再生能源比例高于本地电力。2009年由于外来电的引入,上海市电力消费避免了178万t的CO2排放。就火力发电而言,上海市单位发电能耗和CO2排放略低于华东电网平均值,远高于世界先进水平,还有很大下降空间。基于以上研究,从提高火力发电的能效、发展可再生能源、发展分布式供能和其他新能源技术、建设智能电网等方面提出上海市减缓电力CO2排放的途径。     

Can we meet targets for biofuels and renewable energy in transport given the constraints imposed by policy in agriculture and energy?

The deployment of biofuels is significantly affected by policy in energy and agriculture. In the energy arena, concerns regarding the sustainability of biofuel systems and their impact on food prices led to a set of sustainability criteria in EU Directive 2009/28/EC on Renewable Energy. In addition, the 10% biofuels target by 2020 was replaced with a 10% renewable energy in transport target. This allows the share of renewable electricity used by electric vehicles to contribute to the mix in achieving the 2020 target. Furthermore, only biofuel systems that effect a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared with the fuel they replace are allowed to contribute to meeting the target. In the agricultural arena, cross-compliance (which is part of EU Common Agricultural Policy) dictates the allowable ratio of grassland to total agricultural land, and has a significant impact on which biofuels may be supported. This paper outlines the impact of these policy areas and their implications for the production and use of biofuels in terms of the 2020 target for 10% renewable transport energy, focusing on Ireland. The policies effectively impose constraints on many conventional energy crop biofuels and reinforce the merits of using biomethane, a gaseous biofuel. The analysis shows that Ireland can potentially satisfy 15% of renewable energy in transport by 2020 (allowing for double credit for biofuels from residues and ligno-cellulosic materials, as per Directive 2009/28/EC) through the use of indigenous biofuels: grass biomethane, waste and residue derived biofuels, electric vehicles and rapeseed biodiesel.     

可再生能源的国外发展经验与我国的发展选择

世界经济飞速发展进程中,各国普遍面临着能源瓶颈.石油、煤炭等不可再生能源在人类消费的能源结构中占比逐渐降低是一种趋势,各国将关注点放在可再生能源方面,才是谋求经济可持续发展的理性选择.太阳能、风能、潮汐能、地热能、水能、生物质能、核能等可再生能源正在进入发展的快车道.中国、印度等发展中国家在可再生能源的开发方面处在世界前列,很多发达国家也开始转向可再生能源开发.可再生能源相对于传统能源而言,开发成本较高,所以政府需要给予支持政策.发达国家的经验表明,实行配额制是比较可行的,除此之外,还可以进行绿色交易、创新融资机制以及进行财政倾斜等相关制度设计,确保可再生能源得到可持续发展.     

Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

In the coming years India faces greatchallenges in energy and environment. Thepath of development chosen by India, uponwhich lies the future growth of energy andemission trajectories, would be greatlyinfluenced by technological developmentsboth within and outside the country,economic cooperation between countries, andglobal cooperation in limiting greenhousegas emissions. This paper discusses theintegrated modeling system used fordeveloping and analyzing the long-termtrajectories and presents results for thescenarios developed. In the context ofongoing market reforms two scenarios –accelerated and decelerated reforms – aredeveloped depicting fast and slow progressin energy sector reforms compared toexpectations in the baseline scenario.Accelerated market reforms would spurimprovements in technological efficiencies.Reforms would lower investment risks inIndia, thereby stimulating increased levelsof foreign direct investment. On the otherhand in decelerated reform scenarioeconomic growth is lower than that in thebase case, there is low access to capital,and technological improvements lag behindthose in the base case. In another scenariowe assume specific policy interventions forpenetration of renewable technologies overthe baseline scenario, for promotion andaccelerated deployment of renewable energytechnologies over and above the baselineassumptions. A scenario with carbon(c) constraints has also been developed and theresults discussed.     

Linking the emissions trading schemes of Europe and China - Combining climate and energy policy instruments

Both Europe and China have announced targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and renewable energy development. To achieve their emissions targets, Europe has introduced emissions trading scheme (ETS) since 2005 and China has planned to establish a national ETS in 2015. We assess the impact of a joint Europe-China ETS when both climate and energy policy instruments are simulated in a multiregional general equilibrium model. Our results show that a joint ETS markedly increases total carbon emissions from fossil fuels even though global mitigation costs are reduced. Moreover, a joint ETS helps China achieve its renewable energy target, but for Europe, it works opposite. While the renewable energy target does not help Europe achieve additional abatement, the renewable energy target in China reduces mitigation costs and emissions, and increases renewable energy consumption and sales of carbon allowances. Financial transfer through a joint ETS remains marginal compared to China’s demand for renewable energy subsidies. We conclude that as long as an absolute emissions cap is missing in China, a joint ETS is not attractive for mitigation and China’s renewable energy target can reduce emissions.     

跨区电力传输对大气污染物和CO2的区域排放影响研究

跨区电力传输作为新的区域间能源调配形式将会改变我国未来各区域能源使用、大气污染物排放、温室气体排放等的发展路径,模拟、分析这种影响能为统筹协调全国以及区域的能源资源使用策略和电力行业节能减排相关政策提供参考.本研究应用基于区域电网的中国电力行业优化模型(BOMCES-ED),结合特高压输电线路的相关发展预期,以2010年我国各区域电网的发电装机信息为基准年数据,模拟研究了跨区电力传输对各区域电力行业发展以及环境排放造成的影响.结果显示,到2020年,最大的电力输出区域西北电网因电力输出而导致的电煤消耗量增加12351.2万t,SO2、NOx、CO2和Hg排放增加量分别达到22.1万t、11.6万t、2.28亿t和3.80t.由跨区电力传输导致的区域间环境排放和环境健康损失转移需要引起关注.     

Reprint of “The future of hydropower in Europe: Interconnecting climate,markets and policies”

Hydropower is very important for electricity supply security in the European inter-connexion as well as for the economy of regions (primarily peripheral) that possess water resources. Its future may however be jeopardized by several factors: climate change, the development of new renewable energy, the creation of super and micro-grids, and progress in power storage technology. Energy and climate policy, as well as electricity market design and dynamics play a pivotal role.This article carries out a comprehensive analysis of all these factors and discusses the future of hydropower. This discussion follows an overview of the present situation and of future drivers. The technical, environmental, economic and political aspects of the problem are analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach. The stakes as well as the uncertainties are highlighted.The conclusion is that hydropower has a promising future, particularly in light of emerging sustainable energy policy, but that the risks should not be overlooked. Academics will find a comprehensive interdisciplinary analysis of hydropower in this article, whereas public bodies, communities and hydropower companies can identify the strategic variables that should be taken into consideration in the decision making process. The end of water concessions or authorizations is also evoked.