Correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and injury severity sustained by motorcyclists in single-vehicle crashes

Objectives: In order to improve motorcycle safety, this article examines the correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and injury severity sustained by motorcyclists, under multiple precrash conditions. Method: Ten-year crash data for single-vehicle motorcycle crashes from the General Estimates Systems (GES) were analyzed, using partial proportional odds models (i.e., generalized ordered logit models). Results: The modeling results show that “braking (no lock-up)” is associated with a higher probability of increased severity, whereas “braking (lock-up)” is associated with a higher probability of decreased severity, under all precrash conditions. “Steering” is associated with a higher probability of reduced injury severity when other vehicles are encroaching, whereas it is correlated with high injury severity under other conditions. “Braking and steering” is significantly associated with a higher probability of low severity under “animal encounter and object presence,” whereas it is surprisingly correlated with high injury severity when motorcycles are traveling off the edge of the road. The results also show that a large number of motorcyclists did not perform any crash avoidance maneuvers or conducted crash avoidance maneuvers that are significantly associated with high injury severity. Conclusions: In general, this study suggests that precrash maneuvers are an important factor associated with motorcyclists' injury severity. To improve motorcycle safety, training/educational programs should be considered to improve safety awareness and adjust driving habits of motorcyclists. Antilock brakes and such systems are also promising, because they could effectively prevent brake lock-up and assist motorcyclists in maneuvering during critical conditions. This study also provides valuable information for the design of motorcycle training curriculum.     

Behavioral pathways in bicycle-motor vehicle crashes: From contributing factors,pre-crash actions,to injury severities

Introduction: This study performed a path analysis to uncover the behavioral pathways (from contributing factors, pre-crash actions to injury severities) in bicycle-motor vehicle crashes. Method: The analysis investigated more than 7,000 bicycle-motor vehicle crashes in North Carolina between 2007 and 2014. Pre-crash actions discussed in this study are actions of cyclists and motorists prior to the event of a crash, including “bicyclist failed to yield,” “motorist failed to yield,” “bicyclist overtaking motorist,” and “motorist overtaking bicyclist.” Results: Model results show significant correlates of pre-crash actions and bicyclist injury severity. For example, young bicyclists (18 years old or younger) are 23.5% more likely to fail to yield to motor traffic prior to the event of a crash than elder bicyclists. The “bicyclist failed to yield” action is associated with increased bicyclist injury severity than other actions, as this behavior is associated with an increase of 5.88 percentage points in probability of a bicyclist being at least evidently injured. The path analysis can highlight contributing factors related to risky pre-crash actions that lead to severe injuries. For example, bicyclists traveling on regular vehicle travel lanes are found to be more likely to involve the “bicyclist failed to yield” action, which resulted in a total 44.38% (7.04% direct effect + 37.34% indirect effect) higher likelihood of evident or severe injuries. The path analysis can also identify factors (e.g., intersection) that are not directly but indirectly correlated with injury severity through pre-crash actions. Practical Applications: This study offers a methodological framework to quantify the behavioral pathways in bicycle-motor vehicle crashes. The findings are useful for cycling safety improvements from the perspective of bicyclist behavior, such as the educational program for cyclists.     

Characteristics of hazardous chemical accidents in China: A statistical investigation

Utilizing data from official sources, 1632 hazardous chemical accidents (HCAs) occurring in China (2006–2010) were investigated for statistical characteristics. The following results were obtained: (1) Time volatility: The yearly number of HCAs is shown to be almost constant (with a slightly increasing number of fixed facility HCAs); fixed facility and transportation HCAs do not always follow similar patterns at month and hour-level. (2) Location distribution: There are provincial classifications of HCA materials involved in certain types of industries and the potential for HCAs is highly concentrated in urban areas. (3) Fixed facility type versus transportation type: Explosions represent almost half (48.4%) of fixed facility HCAs followed by releases (41.5%) and fires (10.1%); whereas for transportation HCAs, releases account for 79.6%, then explosions (15.1%) and fires (5.3%). As for domino effects, releases were often the cause of subsequent explosions or fires. (4) Injury versus death: In contrast with other industrial accidents, HCAs result in more severe casualties. For explosion and release HCAs in China, the ratio of death to major injury is quite high, with the exception of fire HCAs. (5) Cause: Concerning immediate causes, human factors account for the majority of HCAs followed by equipment deficiency; environment is also a causative factor. Internal corporate management failures and lack of external government supervision (particularly HCAs occurring in illegal corporations) are both root causes in China. (6)Corporate proneness: Majority of HCAs occur in private corporations; as corporations grow, the occurrence of HCAs are shown to decline steadily then level off, following which they are forecasted to increase again in the “aging stages”, all of which can be explained by Corporate Lifecycles Theory.     

Near-miss在知识图谱下的演化路径与发展前沿可视化分析

为了直观展现Near-miss在国内外的研究现状,把握其热点演化路径,同时预测今后的研究趋势,以Web of Science核心合集和CNKI中1995—2020年共计989篇相关文献为研究对象,借助Citespace软件,通过共现图谱、高频词统计、时区图和热词突现等方式对Near-miss在国内外的研究进展进行可视化对比分析。研究结果表明：国内外Near-miss研究在发展趋势、主要研究群体和机构、热点演化路径和前沿趋势等方面均存在一定差异,“风险管理”、“施工安全”和“事故防御”是Near-miss未来的研究趋势。     

Analysis of “high-dollar” value safety and health citations and orders for the US coal mines

This paper presents an analysis of a “high-dollar” value safety and health citations and orders for the US coal mines using the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) data. Term “high-dollar” value relates to penalty of $10,000 and more per citation or order. The study was based on historical MSHA data for the period from 01/01/2009 to 12/31/2009. Data shows that there were 1161 “high-dollar” value citations and orders in 2009 with a total penalty of almost $31-million. The most cited standard was 75.400 – “Accumulation of combustible material” with a 259 “high-dollar” value citations and total penalty of almost $5.9-million. Among all US states, the West Virginia coal mines recorded the highest number of citations and the total penalty value. Results of this study can be used by coal mining industry to help in prioritizing resource allocations and determining control strategies.     

Historical analysis of accidents in seaports

A study has been carried out of accidents occurring in seaports. A total of 471 accidents occurring between the beginning of the twentieth century and October 2002 have been analysed. The results obtained show a significant increase in the frequency of accidents over time: 83% of the accidents occurred in the last 20 years and 59% in the past decade. The most frequent accidents were releases (51%), followed by fires (29%), explosions (17%) and gas clouds (3%). More than half the accidents occurred during transport: loading/unloading operations, storage and process plants also make a large contribution to the total. The various causes of the accidents have also been analysed, as have the type of substance involved and the consequences for the population (number of people killed, injured and evacuated). Finally, some conclusions are drawn concerning the need to improve certain safety measures in ports.     

The relationship between speeding behaviour (as measured by violation convictions) and crash involvement

While it seems rational to assume that crash involvement risk and outcome are influenced by the way one drives, nevertheless there is continuing controversy over the validity of certain categories of traffic law infractions as true measures of such behavior. Specifically, does the accumulation of tickets for speeding identify drivers as high risk for becoming culpably involved in speed-related crashes? Further, does a proclivity for exhibiting speeding behavior in the presence of police translate into a greater risk for involvement in high-severity collisions?The research reported in this paper attempted to address these issues. Several years of crash and conviction data were utilized to examine

• 1.(a) the risk of culpable crash involvement by severity of outcome during a 2-year period following 3 years of conviction record,
• 2.(b) the degree to which an increasing level of speeding convictions per driver relates to an increasing propensity for speed to be a factor in drivers' crash involvements.

The results of the research identified a clear distinction between the conviction categories of “exceeding the speed limit” and “excessive speed” in terms of these accident-violation relationships.     

对“安全驾驶适应性测验”的可行性研究

重点对“安全驾驶适应性测验”的信度和效度进行了研究和检验。通过对３１０ 名汽车驾驶员的答卷资料所处理结果表明：事故群驾驶员和非事故群驾驶员的心理品质差异主要表现在观察能力,判断能力,推断能力,辨别能力,思维的灵活性,注意的广度与稳定性,个性方面的安全驾驶态度,情绪的稳定性及是否过分自信等方面。另外,对年龄、文化程度、驾驶经验与事故率之间关系的考查表明,年龄与事故率之间的相关程度是十分显著的。说明该测验对于识别事故群驾驶员和非事故群驾驶员具有一定的区分性和预测性。     

Probability of death,disability, and restricted work activity in United States underground bituminous coal mines, 1975–1981

This study examined relationships between mine and miner characteristics and severity of 82,945 underground bituminous coal mine injuries using logistic regression techniques. Injuries were classified as severe if they resulted in death, disability, or restricted work activity. Supervisory and maintenance personnel were found to have fewer chances of severe injuries than “all other” job classifications. A shaft or slope had a lower association with severe injuries than the face. The probability of a severe injury increased each succeeding year from 1975 through 1981. Mining method was not related to degree of injury. Older miners had the same probability of severe injuries as younger miners. Weeks of experience in mining, on a particular job, and in a specific mine were not related to severity of injuries. Mobile equipment operators had the same chance of severe injuries as miners in “all other” job classifications. Accidents at intersections and “other” locations were as likely to produce severe injuries as those at the face. Elapsed shift time prior to an injury was not related to injury severity. The implications of these findings are discussed and recommendations made for future research.     

Severity of passenger injuries on public buses: A comparative analysis of collision injuries and non-collision injuries

Introduction: Although public buses have been demonstrated as a relatively safe mode of transport, the number of injuries to public bus passengers is far from negligible. Existing studies of public bus safety have focused primarily on injuries caused by collisions. Surprisingly, limited effort has been devoted to identifying factors that increase the severity of passenger injuries in non-collision incidents. Method: Our study therefore investigated the injury risk of public bus passengers involved in collision incidents and non-collision incidents comparatively, based on a police-reported dataset of 17,383 passengers injured on franchised public buses over a 10-year period in Hong Kong. A random parameters logistic model was established to estimate the likelihood of fatal and severe injuries to passengers as a function of various factors. Results: Our results indicated substantial inconsistences in the effects of risk factors between models of non-collision injuries and collision injuries. The severity of passenger injuries tended to increase significantly when non-collision incidents occurred due to excessive speed of bus drivers, on double-decker buses, in less urbanized areas, in winter, in heavy rains, during daytime, and at night without street lighting. Elderly female passengers were also found more likely to be fatally or severely injured in non-collision incidents if they lost their balance while boarding, alighting from, or standing on a bus. In comparison, the following factors were associated with a greater likelihood of fatal or severe injuries in collision incidents: elderly female passengers, standing passengers who lost balance, buses out of driver control, double-decker buses, collisions with vehicles or objects, and less urbanized areas. Practical Applications: Based on our comparative analysis, more targeted countermeasures, namely “4E” (engineering, enforcement, emergency, and education) and “3A” (awareness, appreciation, and assistance), were recommended to mitigate collision injuries and non-collision injuries to public bus passengers, respectively.     

The limits to risk aversion: Part 2: The permission point and worked examples

Part 2 extends the analysis to show that it is possible to find the “permission point”, the value of (the coefficient of relative) risk-aversion, at which decisions to sanction environmental protection are most likely to be made. The mathematical model describes the process by which the decision maker varies his risk-aversion over a range of feasible values to find the risk-aversion that will give him the greatest desire to invest in the protection system under consideration. If he can find such a risk-aversion before losing discrimination (because the system is too expensive, given its performance), he will adopt it as his “permission point” and decide in favour of the expenditure. The permission point is, of course, bounded above by the point of indiscriminate decision. A maximum Risk Multiplier calculated at the point of indiscriminate decision may be applied to the protection expenditure at monetary break-even to give the maximum, rational outlay on protection. Moreover, it is possible to model how the average UK adult should take decisions on protection to maximise his utility. Different situations will call for different values of risk-aversion, which may explain why economists have come up with differing estimates of this parameter in the past. However, a central, average risk-aversion may be calculated for the average UK adult as 0.85, which is within 4% of the value, 0.82, found from the newly reported method based on a trade-off between income and future free time, and is consistent with several recent economic estimates. Worked examples assess how much an organisation should spend on a protection scheme to prevent accidents with very large environmental consequences.     

我国职业噪声危害成因分析及总体控制对策

职业噪声不仅属于职业卫生问题 ,也是当今世界上主要的环境公害之一。有效控制职业噪声不仅能够保护劳动者的听力不受损害 ,使其身心安全与健康得到保障 ,同时也是消除安全隐患 ,实现安全生产的重要途径。笔者分析了我国职业噪声危害的现状 ,论述了我国职业噪声危害的严重性以及控制的重要性与迫切性。然后采用“人 -机 -环境”系统工程方法 ,分别从人的行为、物的状态以及工作环境等 3个方面 ,分析职业噪声危害的成因 ,构造了基于宏观管理维、中观人机环境维以及微观技术维等三维结构的我国职业噪声危害控制总体框架 ,并从政府、企业以及劳动者等角度 ,对职业噪声危害控制的运行机制进行了研究 ,以解决我国日益严重的职业噪声危害问题 ,不断改善我国安全生产现状并进一步提高劳动保护工作的整体水平。     

Population-based assessment of a vehicle fleet with seat belts providing lower shoulder belt forces than today

Objective: The objective of this study was to quantify the population-based effects of a lower shoulder belt load limit on front row occupants in frontal car crashes.

Method: Crashes of modern vehicles from the GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study) are corrected for bias and projected to the national level. Injury risk functions are computed for the injury severity levels Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 2+, MAIS 3+, and fatal, stratified by 2 age cohorts (16–44 years of age and 45 years or older). To assess the field effectivity of a “softer belt,” the projected crash frequency data are modified separately for the 2 age cohorts such that its risk structure represents the risk of a softer belt. Given those 2 samples, the field effectivity of a softer belt is derived for several shares of the younger age cohort according to the injury severity levels MAIS 2+, MAIS 3+, and fatal.

Results: The injury risk distribution of the projected crash frequency data, represented here by the injury risk functions obtained, fits well into the injury risk distribution of other data sets (Sweden, United States, and Japan) given in the literature. The relative effects of a lower belt force are stable over the different ratios of the younger and old age cohorts. At the MAIS 2+ level, a lower belt force can significantly reduce the number of injuries (about 10%). A lower belt force does not significantly affect the number of MAIS 3+ injuries. A lower belt force can, however, more than double the number of fatal injuries.

Conclusions: Because the number of fatal injuries rises dramatically due to lower belt force, the reduction in the number of MAIS 2+ injuries comes at a very high cost. Therefore, whether reducing the belt force limit is the right approach is questionable.     

Safety compliance climate concerning risk assessment and preventive measures in EU legislation: A Finnish survey

The aim of the present study is to explore the process dynamics of the safety compliance climate and work relationships, including their antecedents and consequences. After investigating the many dimensions of safety compliance climate and of work relationships, the study concludes that a multi-component measure is needed to fully assess all of their dimensions. With respect to the impacting positively on safety compliance legislation, the present study found the following factors: “contribution measures”, “concrete preventive measures” and “risk assessment process”. For risk assessment factors on safety compliance the study identified “planning, guidelines, policy, management”, “prioritization of proactive measures”, “results in cooperation and information” and “active use of risks assessment document”. In a regression model for the workers, both risk assessment process and contribution measures had a statistically highly significant (p < 0.001) effect on concrete preventive measures. In the regression analysis of the employers risk assessment process had a statistically significant (p < 0.01) effect and contribution measures had a statistically highly significant (p < 0.001) effect on concrete preventive measures.     

Amalgam in Dentistry A Health Hazard for Dental Personnel?

In a cross sectional study done in 1993 among dental personnel in Norrbotten, self-reported prevalence of muscular pain, headache, tremor, insomnia, irritation, impaired memory and depression, as well as information regarding different mercury exposures were collected Mercury exposures were determined as “number of amalgam fillings in teeth,” “years in practice,” “insufficient ventilation at work,” “total number of amalgam removed, produced and polished per day,” and “working in dental clinics.” As controls, physicians and nurses from the same geographical area were selected. The correlation between symptoms and different mercury exposures was calculated using logistic regression. The results suggested a higher prevalence of muscular fatigue and tremor for female dental personnel compared to controls Controls reported a lower prevalence of symptoms with increasing number of amalgam fillings in teeth. There was no correlation between the number of amalgam fillings handled per day and symptoms for dental personnel. Male dental personnel associated muscular fatigue headache, impaired memory, and depression with increased handling of amalgam in the clinic’ whereas the female dental personnel associated the same symptoms with the number of amalgam fillings in teeth. The strongest correlation was found between symptoms and insufficient ventilation at dental clinics for dental personnel.     

Trends in accidents,disasters and risk sources in Europe

Most of the adverse impacts on man and/or the environment result from routine human activities such as the process industry, electricity generation and use, transport and agriculture (hazards, i.e. sources of risk). Apart from such essentially technological hazards, possibly resulting in “accidents”, human health and the environment can also be affected by natural hazards, possibly resulting in “disasters”, such as earthquakes or floods. This paper examines current trends in the risk sources and occurrences of four classes of such types of undesired events, entailing largely involuntary risk (e.g. neither car-driving nor smoking):

• •major accidents at fixed installations in the process industry,
• •incidents/accidents at nuclear installations,
• •marine transport and offshore installation accidents,
• •disasters caused by natural hazards and their potential exacerbation by human activities.

It aims to provide an integrated overview of such events in Europe (≡ 15 EU Member States, 4 EFTA, 13 PHARE, 7 TACIS and 5 other South and South Eastern European countries) during the last decade, estimating and interpreting trends in the number of risk sources and accidental events. For each type of event, specific “accident” definitions are given, illustrating the differences in the perception of the respective risk.     

铁路危险品货场中人体静电放电隐患的测量与评估

根据人体静电的基本理论,人体的对地静电电位、电容和电阻是静电放电隐患的3个主要评估参数,也是建立静电危害模型的关键参数。笔者结合实际测量数据,对铁路危险品货场中人体静电放电的隐患进行了分析与评估,并探讨了其危害机理,提出了流动人体模型和人体—老虎车模型,给出了模型参数的数值。基于实测数据和放电模型分析的评估结果表明:在铁路危险品货场中,源于人体静电放电的静电电击和静电引爆两个隐患不容忽视;与基于实测数据的直接评估结果相比,人体—老虎车模型得出的评估结论是静电放电隐患,更值得关注。     

Contributing factors of crash injury severity at public highway-railroad grade crossings in the U.S.

IntroductionThe Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21) includes a separate program that supports safety improvements to reduce the number of fatalities and injuries at public highway-railroad grade crossings (HRGCs). This study identifies the significant factors affecting crash injury severity at public HRGCs in the United States.MethodCrashes from 2009 through 2013 on 5,528 public HRGCs, extracted from the Federal Railroad Administration database, were used in the analysis. A comprehensive list of risk factors was explored. Examples include predictors related to geographic region of crash, geometry (e.g., area type and pavement marking type), railroad (e.g., warning device type and railroad class), traffic (e.g., train speed and vehicles annual average daily traffic “AADT”), highway user (e.g., driver age and gender), and environment (e.g., lighting and weather conditions). The study used the mixed logit model to better capture the complex highway user behavior at HRGCs.ResultsFemale highway users were at higher risk of involvement in injuries and fatalities compared to males. Higher train speeds, very old drivers, open areas, concrete road surface types, and railroad equipment striking highway users before crash, were all found to increase the injury likelihood. On the other hand, young and middle-age drivers, non-passing of standing vehicles at HRGCs, industrial areas, and presence of warning bells were found to reduce injuries and fatalities.ConclusionsThe mixed logit model succeeded in identifying contributing factors of crash severity at public HRGCs and potential countermeasures to reduce both fatalities and injuries are suggested.Practical applicationsIt is important to install warning bells at public HRGCs, especially at those with high number of injury and fatality crashes. Enforcement of traffic nearby HRGCs is necessary to prevent vehicles from overtaking of standing vehicles.     

Exploring the severity of bicycle–vehicle crashes using latent class clustering approach in India

IntroductionBicyclists are vulnerable users in the shared asset like roadways. However, people still prefer to use bicycles for environmental, societal, and health benefits. In India, the bicycle plays a role in supporting the mobility to more people at lower cost and are often associated with the urban poor. Bicyclists represents one of the road user categories with highest risk of injuries and fatalities. According to the report by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (Accidents, 2017) in India, there is a sharp increase in the number of fatal victims for bicyclists in 2017 over 2016. The number of cyclists killed jumped from 2,585 in 2016 to 3,559 in 2017, a 37.7% increase. Method: Few studies have only investigated the crash risk perceived by the bicyclists while interacting with other road users. The present paper investigates the injury severity of bicyclists in bicycle-vehicle crashes that occurred in the state of Tamilnadu, India during the nine year period (2009–2017). The analyses demonstrate that dividing bicycle-vehicle collision data into five clusters helps in reducing the systematic heterogeneity present in the data and identify the hidden relationship between the injury severity levels of bicyclists and cyclists demographics, vehicle, environmental, temporal cause for the crashes. Results: Latent Class Clustering (LCC) approach was used in the present study as a preliminary tool for the segmentation of 9,978 crashes. Later, logistic regression analysis was used to identify the factors that influence bicycle crash severity for the whole dataset as well as for the clusters that were obtained from the LCC model. Results of this study show that combined use of both techniques reveals further information that wouldn’t be obtained without prior segmentation of the data. Few variables such as season, weather conditions, and light conditions were significant for certain clusters that were hidden in the whole dataset. This study can help domain experts or traffic safety researchers to segment traffic crashes and develop targeted countermeasures to mitigate injury severity.