A study of spreading of crude oil in an ice channel

An oil spill on solid ice poses unique challenges to that of a spill on water or land. One challenge, which this study has elected to investigate, is the tendency of ice to crack and form channels. These channels are able to transport the oil away from the main mass of the spill making efficient cleanup difficult. Within the context of in situ burning, the oil channels may expedite the critical thickness of the oil spill being reached. A series of bench scale tests using a 100 cm long ice channel were conducted to study the effects of varying ice channel widths on the spread of an oil mixture, to mimic solid sea ice conditions that may be found in higher latitudes. Results suggest that spread rates of oil in ice channels approximately follows a viscous two-dimensional box model. The implication of these results on in situ burning of oil in icy conditions is discussed.     

Dynamic risk assessment of oil spill scenario for Three Gorges Reservoir in China based on numerical simulation

A novel method for dynamic risk assessment of oil spill accidents based on numerical simulation was presented in this paper. The dynamic risk assessment model was developed consisting of a comprehensive list of caused consequences like environmental damage, asset loss, health impact and social effect as well as emergency actions preventing these losses. Contributing events in the Mater Logic Diagram (MLD) of the dynamic risk assessment model were valued based on the simulated evolvement of oil contaminants under spill scenario on quasi-static fluid, which was obtained by coupling an oil spill model with hydrodynamic module in Jialing river of Three Gorges Reservoir in China after the impoundment of the reservoir to 175 m water level in 2010. Calculated result of dynamic risk as grade IV indicated that the assessed oil spill was not as catastrophic as we thought because of the slow transport of oil fractions on water surface and absence of dispersed oil in water body due to the quasi-static fluid, very gentle wind and effective emergency actions, as well as by the reason that rare agriculture or industrial crops exist in spill adjacent area.     

长江干线中下游溢油应急设备点选址优化

为优化长江干线中下游溢油应急设备点选址,建立溢油应急需求水域风险评价体系,采用云模型对其评价,进而构建以加权距离最小为目标的溢油应急设备点选址模型。采用自适应差分进化算法(Adaptive Differential Evolution,ADE)对其求解。将模型应用于九江港的溢油应急设备点选址,最终解算选址于瑞昌港区及彭泽港区,此评估结果与九江港实际规划相符。     

无人机在山区河流溢油事故溢油寻踪中的应用

针对山区跨越河流输油管道发生原油溢油事故后的不易发现性以及河流溢油事故可能产生的恶劣影响,提出1种通过无人机上装载的高清晰摄像头拍摄识别溢油区域的无人机溢油油头“影迹”寻踪法。该方法对无人机巡线路径进行算法编程,控制无人机的沿河寻油路径,通过无人机识别的溢油区域图片分析溢油油头位置,对溢油量进行大致计算并且能对溢油情况进行初步判断,从而为即将到来的溢油回收环节提供理论数据支撑;能够提高收油效率,大幅度减少山区跨越河流输油管道发生溢油事故后造成污染以及潜在危害的可能性,为油气管道的安全运行提供了一定的保障。     

Decision-making on process risk of Arctic route for LNG carrier via dynamic Bayesian network modeling

An increasing number of ships have chosen the suitable route to transport in Arctic waters during summer. Seeking a suitable model for risk decision-making in route planning is a necessary research topic at present. Due to its complex natural environment, there is significant uncertainty regarding ship navigation safety in Arctic waters. The process risk-based decision-making method to support route planning is established based on the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) risk assessment model for LNG carrier collision with ice or obstacles in Arctic waters. The decision-making process for ship navigation is dynamically associated with time. Therefore, a Markov Chain (MC) is built for each dynamic node in Bayesian belief network (BBN) to realize DBN associated risk assessment, which is called process risk and is applied to decision-making. Three possible routes for ships sailing from the Vikitsky Strait to the Long Strait in Arctic waters were selected in conjunction with the objective daily change data of wind speed, temperature, wave height, and ice condition. Simulations for risk decision-making in the ship navigation process are performed. Application examples show that the ship selected either ROUTE2 (Vikitsky Strait – Laptev Sea – Sannikov Strait – Eastern Siberian Sea – Long Strait) or ROUTE3 (Vikitsky Strait – Laptev Sea – Proliv Dmitriya Lapteva – Eastern Siberian Sea – Long Strait) in August as the best navigable route.     

Longitudinal safety impacts of cooperative adaptive cruise control vehicle's degradation

Introduction: The adaptive cruise control (ACC) and cooperative ACC (CACC) systems are critical parts of self-driving vehicles. The ACC vehicles detect front vehicle' information via vehicle-mounted sensors and make longitudinal reactions automatically, while CACC vehicles enhance the performance by vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) wireless communication. However, CACC vehicles may abruptly degrade to ACC mode in reality due to various reasons, including communication failures, driver manipulations, and cyber-attacks. The sudden degradation will definitely bring negative influences on safety. Method:This study quantitatively evaluated the longitudinal safety impacts of vehicles' degradation in a CACC fleet based on microscopic simulations. The realistic CACC and ACC models proposed by the California Partners for Advanced Transit and Highways (PATH) were used for simulation experiments. The time integrated time-to-collision (TIT) was measured to quantify the collision risks. Extensive simulations were conducted via a fleet of 10 CACC vehicles and speed profiles of vehicles in different scenarios were compared. Key factors, including the leading vehicle's deceleration rate, the number of vehicles between degraded vehicles (NVDVs), threshold of TTC, and visibility were also examined via sensitivity analyses. Results and conclusions: Simulation results indicate that degradation has significant negative influences on longitudinal safety of degraded vehicles under the driving state of deceleration. Degradation at middle positions in a CACC fleet, such as fourth and fifth positions, is much safer than that at others. Moreover, nonadjacent degradation is much riskier than adjacent degradation at the front positions of a fleet. NVDVs can bring inverse impacts on safety with different degradation positions. Speed profiles imply that the hysteresis of degraded vehicles' speed control is the major reason for high collision risks. Practical applications: Appropriately, hierarchical countermeasures have the potential to reduce the longitudinal safety impacts of degradation. Findings of this study can contribute to determining the applicable length of CACC fleets.     

基于改进贝叶斯网络的加油站火灾爆炸分析

为了找出导致加油站发生火灾爆炸事故的基本事件及其可能性大小,以加油站火灾爆炸故障树为基础建立相应的贝叶斯网络风险模型。在FTA向BN转化算法的基础上对条件概率做出了修正。利用GeNIe软件计算加油站火灾爆炸事故基事件的后验概率,同时进行灵敏度和影响力分析。最后通过实例分析,找出了导致某加油站发生火灾爆炸事故危险性最大的因素集为:加油站接打手机、机械碰撞、给塑料容器加油、加油冒油、油枪渗漏等。结果表明,注重基事件的多态性和事件间逻辑关系合理性的新模型,能推算出更准确的基事件概率分布,同时可以找出导致事故发生的最有可能途径,为加油站事故预防,系统改进提供较为合理性建议。     

Occupant Risk,Partner Risk and Fatality Rate in Frontal Crashes: Estimated Effects of Changing Vehicle Fleet Mass in 15 Years

The effect of vehicle fleet mass on car crash fatalities was estimated, using a new mathematical model to isolate vehicle mass from related factors like size, stiffness and inherent protection. The model was based on fatality risk data, impact speed, fleet mass distribution, and collision probabilities. The fleet mass distribution was changed over 15 years to (a) a homogeneous fleet of 1300 kg cars, (b) a bimodal fleet of 600 and 1600 kg cars, and (c) a 300 kg lighter fleet.

Occupant and collision partner fatality risks were estimated for the new fleets. The new fleets were achieved by various strategies, and the average fatality rate was calculated after and during the transition to the new fleet.Occupant fatality risk decreased and partner risk increased as occupants changed to a heavier car. The average fatality rate was 59% higher after the transition to a bimodal fleet mass, and 11 % lower for a homogeneous fleet. A 300 kg lighter fleet had a 8% higher fatality rale, but the strategy influenced the number of fatalities accumulated during the transition. The safest strategy to attain the lighter fleet was to reduce the mass of the heaviest cars first.

It was concluded that vehicle fleet mass significantly affects traffic safety. Downsizing consequences can be compensated for by improving inherent vehicle protection or reducing impact speed. The fatalities during downsizing can be limited by choosing an appropriate strategy.     

An experimental study on the burning rate of a continuously released n-heptane spill fire on an open water surface

Spill fires are common during oil product storage and transportation after a loss of containment. Since the burning fuel is moving and the fuel depth is quite shallow, the burning rate in a spill fire is different from that of a pool fire with a static burning zone. Unlike pool fires, which have been studied for decades and have well-established correlations for burning rate, research on spill fires is inadequate. In this paper, continuously released n-heptane spill fire experiments were conducted on open water surfaces with varying fuel discharge rates. The pool diameters were measured, and the spill fire burning rates were estimated based on a dynamic balance between fuel supply and combustion. The burning rates in n-heptane pool fires from the literature were reviewed and compared with the estimated burning rates in spill fires of the same dimension. The spill fire burning rate was found to be close to that in a pool fire during the initial burning phase but lower than that in a bulk burning pool fire and that in a “fuel-level-controlled” pool fire. The distinction between the burning rates of spill fires and pool fires is explained by the heat balance analysis of the fuel layer. A model for the spill fire burning rate was proposed accordingly. The results calculated with the presented model are closer to the measured data than those calculated with pool fire models.     

基于BN的FTA在通用航空风险评价中的应用

针对事故树分析法(FTA)在风险评价中的局限性,采用以事故树为基础建立的贝叶斯网络(BN)风险模型,对通用航空中的两机空中相撞事故进行分析和推理,对事故模型进行改进和修正时,注重基事件的多态性和事件间的逻辑合理性。根据贝叶斯推理得出的数据,找到了事故的主要致因。结果表明,基于BN的FTA既能向前预测顶事件的发生概率,又能向后诊断基本事件的后验概率,可以更好地对通用航空风险进行评价。     

Dynamic risk analysis of offloading process in floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) platform using Bayesian Network

The growing demand for natural gas has pushed oil and gas exploration to more isolated and previously untapped regions around the world where construction of LNG processing plants is not always a viable option. The development of FLNG will allow floating plants to be positioned in remote offshore areas and subsequently produce, liquefy, store and offload LNG in the one position. The offloading process from an FLNG platform to a gas tanker can be a high risk operation. It consists of LNG being transferred, in hostile environments, through loading arms or flexible cryogenic hoses into a carrier which then transports the LNG to onshore facilities. During the carrier's offloading process at onshore terminals, it again involves risk that may result in an accident such as collision, leakage and/or grounding. It is therefore critical to assess and monitor all risks associated with the offloading operation. This study is aimed at developing a novel methodology using Bayesian Network (BN) to conduct the dynamic safety analysis for the offloading process of an LNG carrier. It investigates different risk factors associated with LNG offloading procedures in order to predict the probability of undesirable accidents. Dynamic failure assessment using Bayesian theory can estimate the likelihood of the occurrence of an event. It can also estimate the failure probability of the safety system and thereby develop a dynamic failure assessment tool for the offloading process at a particular FLNG plant. The main objectives of this paper are: to understand the LNG offloading process, to identify hazardous events during offloading operation, and to perform failure analysis (modelling) of critical accidents and/or events. Most importantly, it is to evaluate and compare risks. A sensitivity analysis has been performed to validate the risk models and to study the behaviour of the most influential factors. The results have indicated that collision is the most probable accident to occur during the offloading process of an LNG carrier at berth, which may have catastrophic consequences.     

Dynamic Bayesian network modeling of reliability of subsea blowout preventer stack in presence of common cause failures

A subsea blowout preventer (BOP) stack is used to seal, control and monitor oil and gas wells. It can be regarded as a series–parallel system consisting of several subsystems. This paper develops the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) of a parallel system with n components, taking account of common cause failures and imperfect coverage. Multiple error shock model is used to model common cause failures. Based on the proposed generic model, DBNs of the two commonly used stack types, namely the conventional BOP and modern BOP are developed. In order to evaluate the effects of the failure rates and coverage factor on the reliability and availability of the stacks, sensitivity analysis is performed.     

Risk quantification framework of hydride-based hydrogen storage systems for light-duty vehicles

This study aims to develop a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework for on-board hydrogen storage systems in light-duty fuel cell vehicles, with focus on hazards from potential vehicular collision affecting hydride-based hydrogen storage vessels. Sodium aluminum hydride (NaAlH₄) has been selected as a representative reversible hydride for hydrogen storage. Functionality of QRA framework is demonstrated by presenting a case study of a postulated vehicle collision (VC) involving the onboard hydrogen storage system. An event tree (ET) model is developed for VC as the accident initiating event. For illustrative purposes, a detailed FT model is developed for hydride dust cloud explosion as part of the accident progress. Phenomenologically-driven ET branch probabilities are estimated based on an experimental program performed for this purpose. Safety-critical basic events (BE) in the FT model are determined using conventional risk importance measures. The Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) technique has been employed to propagate the aleatory (i.e., stochastic) and epistemic (i.e., phenomenological) uncertainties associated with the probabilistic ET and FT models. Extrapolation of the proposed QRA framework and its core risk-informed insights to other candidate on-board reversible and off-board regenerable hydrogen storage systems could provide better understanding of risk consequences and mitigation options associated with employing this hydrogen-based technology in the transportation sector.     

Modelling performance variabilities in oil spill response to improve system resilience

The Environmental Defense Centers (EDCs) of Brazil provide response services following oil spill accidents. EDCs near affected areas rapidly organize and execute emergency response activities in order to minimize the environmental and economic impacts of spills. The current research applied ergonomic principles and methods (interviews, direct observation and focus groups) to describe common EDC system operations, and to identify constraints and conflicting procedural practices. Results of ergonomic field studies were modeled and analyzed using the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), which can show how functional variability in planning, preparedness, execution, resources, economic and human factors affect the quality of emergency response activities. The FRAM analyses provide guidance for improving the resilience of oil spill emergency response systems.     

Age group differences in collision risk

Introduction

The purpose of the current study was to examine differences in factors associated with self-reported collision involvement of three age groups of drivers based on a large representative sample of Ontario adults. Method: This study was based on data from the CAMH Monitor, an ongoing cross-sectional telephone survey of Ontario adults 18 years and older from 2002 to 2005. Three age groups were examined: 18-34 (n = 1,294), 35-54 (n = 2,428), and 55+ (n = 1,576). For each age group sample, a logistic regression analysis was conducted of self-reported collision involvement in the last 12 months by risk factor measures of driving exposure (kilometers driven in a typical week, driving is stressful, and driving on busy roads), consuming five or more drinks of alcohol on one occasion (past 12 months), cannabis use (lifetime, and past 12 months), and driving after drinking among drinkers (past 12 months), controlling for demographics (gender, region, income, and marital status). Results: The study identified differences in factors associated with self-reported collision involvement of the three age groups of adult drivers. The logistic regression model for the youngest group revealed that drivers who reported that driving was stressful at least some of the time, drank five or more drinks on an occasion, and drove after drinking had an increased risk of collision involvement. For the middle age group, those who reported using cannabis in the last 12 months had significantly increased odds of reporting collision involvement. None of the risk factor measures showed significant associations with collision risk for older drivers (aged 55+). Impact: The results suggest potential areas for intervention and new directions for future research.     

An experimental and modeling study of continuous liquid fuel spill fires on water

The spread of burning fuel spilled from oil product containers during offshore storage and transportation may cause large damage and trigger further accidents. Some analytical models already exist to predict the spread and burning behavior of liquid fuel spill fires, however, few experimental studies have been conducted to verify the model results. In this paper, continuous n-heptane spill fire experiments were conducted in a rectangular trench covered with water. The burning area, fuel spread rate, and thermal flux with different discharge flow rates and ignition delay times were investigated by both experimental and modeling means. The spill fire burning area, with 5 typical phases during burning, has a quasi-steady value which is directly proportional to the discharge rate but irrelevant to the ignition delay times. The steady burning rate, as the ratio of discharge rate over burning area, was estimated. A spread model was modified to simulate the spread of continuous liquid fuel spill fires in a one-dimensional channel, based on the balance between gravity and viscous forces. A cuboid solid flame model was used to compute the thermal flux from spill fires. The burning fuel spread and the heat flux calculated by the models agree with the experimental results.     

Impact of wind on in-situ burning behavior of spilled oil on open water

Spilled oil may cause serious environmental pollution and ecological destruction. Thus, an efficient oil spill response is essential to reduce and minimize the impacts seen from an oil spill. In-situ burning (ISB) has been proven to be one of the most convenient and efficient treatment methods for oil spills on sea. When in-situ burning operation is carried out on sea, the wind is usually available. Spilled oil pool fire flame will be blown to tilt with an angle from the vertical direction and the flame length will be stretched. This effect of flame on downstream will be significantly enhanced. It may even cause the burning of spilled oil out of control or hazard the operators near site. Therefore, it is meaningful to study the burning behavior of oil pool fire on open water under wind.A small-scale oil pool fire on open water experiment system was designed, which could simulate the boundary conditions of sea surface ISB. A series of experiments were carried out to study the effects of oil pool diameter, oil layer thickness and wind speed on fire flame length and flame tilt angle. Flame characteristics and temperature of burning system were recorded. This study observes burning behavior to evolve from short pool fire to long declining phase which transient through boilover stage. Dimensionless flame length in pool fire stage increases with wind speed. As expected the flame tilt is strongly influenced by wind speed, tilt angle increase with wind speed. The observed experimental behavior is captured as improvement in the flame length and flame tilt angle models.This study helped better understanding fire behavior in evolving environmental conditions, and the most importantly developed model would help guide better assessment of fire mitigation strategies.     

基于云模型的海上船舶溢油应急管理能力评估方法

为更好地解决海上船舶溢油应急管理能力评估过程中的不确定性问题,提出1种基于区间二型模糊层次分析法的云模型综合评估方法。针对评估体系的局部性,借鉴PPRR应急管理过程理论,对影响船舶溢油应急管理能力的因素进行分级和分类,构建全局评估指标体系;分别运用区间二型模糊层次分析法和逆向云发生器确定各指标权重和云模型参数;通过浮动云和综合云算法获得最终评估结果。结果表明:将5个评估等级和评估结果进行仿真得出评估云的“云滴”图可显示出评估结果的能力等级以及评估结果的可信度和稳定性。计算某海区船舶溢油应急管理能力的评估等级为“较好”,即管辖该海区的海事管理部门能较好地解决海上船舶溢油突发事故,验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。     

海上溢油事故双目标应急物资调度模型

为满足海上溢油事故发生后的应急物资需求,最大程度减少事故带来的损失,根据海上溢油应急物资调度的特点,构建基于应急物资需求量和调度时间模糊不确定下应急成本最小和延误时间最少的双目标调度模型。引入三角模糊函数描述应急物资调度中物资需求量和调度时间的不确定性,构建模糊环境下溢油事故点对应急物资应急成本最小和应急延误时间最少的双目标模型,利用遗传算法求解,并通过算例分析证明了该方法的有效性。结果表明,三角模糊数能很好地表征调度中物资需求量和时间的不确定性及模糊属性,确定的调度方案能为海上溢油事故发生时应急物资调度提供决策依据。     

基于模糊Bow-tie模型的油轮靠港装卸作业溢油风险分析

为了全面分析油轮靠港装卸作业溢油事故风险,在风险定量分析中引入了模糊Bow-tie模型,基于事故树方法分析油轮靠港装卸作业发生溢油事故的原因,采用事件树方法分析溢油事故可能导致的后果,利用模糊集理论与专家评价相结合的方法分析油轮靠港装卸作业溢油的模糊可能值,采用层次分析法确定作业溢油后果因素的权重值,采用矩阵乘法计算溢油后果风险值。分析结果表明:油轮靠港装卸作业过程中一旦发生溢油,发生火灾+污染、爆炸+污染的概率较高。基于以上风险分析提出了油轮靠港装卸作业风险的防控措施,可为油轮靠港装卸作业安全风险管理提供参考。