Fire and explosion hazard analysis during surface transport of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): A case study of LPG truck tanker accident in Kannur,Kerala, India

This paper presents an analysis and simulation of an accident involving a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) truck tanker in Kannur, Kerala, India. During the accident, a truck tanker hit a divider and overturned. A crack in the bottom pipe caused leakage of LPG for about 20 min forming a large vapor cloud, which got ignited, creating a fireball and a boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) situation in the LPG tank with subsequent fire and explosion. Many fatalities and injuries were reported along with burning of trees, houses, shops, vehicles, etc. In the present study, ALOHA (Area Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) and PHAST (Process Hazard Analysis Software Tool) software have been used to model and simulate the accident scenario. Modeling and simulation results of the fireball, jet flame radiation and explosion overpressure agree well with the actual loss reported from the site. The effects of the fireball scenario were more significant in comparison to that of the jet fire scenario.     

CFD analysis of the dispersion of toxic materials in road tunnels

The present work is aimed at analyzing the evolution of accidental scenarios deriving from the release of toxic materials inside a tunnel. This scenario, compared to the more frequently investigated cases of fire, followed by smoke dispersion, may involve a large variety of common products characterized by widely differing physical properties; nonetheless it has been analysed in the literature less than expected. The present study compares the dispersion of two common toxic chemicals (chlorine and ammonia), in order to derive some preliminary information about the influence of the physical properties and the release rate. A reference road tunnel geometry is assumed, while the release occurs from ground level, at the centre of one lane and in the middle of the tunnel. Two study cases involving a road tanker, transporting the product as liquefied gas under pressure, were considered: a catastrophic release, from a 220 mm hole, emptying the tanker in a few tens seconds (case A), and a continuous release, from a much smaller hole (15 mm), lasting 5 min (case B). For the sake of simplicity, the release is assumed to be in gaseous phase; the dispersion of the toxic is simulated for the 5 min period following the start of the release using a CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) analysis, according to an RANS (Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes) approach with the standard k–ε turbulence model, assuming no ventilation conditions. Structured curvilinear grids with hexaedric cells, refined according to the local concentration gradient, are used. For case A scenarios, especially for the whole release duration, dispersion is mainly governed by the “plug-flow” effect caused by the large volume of toxic entering the tunnel in a rather short time; then, the role of diffusivity and gravity becomes more important. Chlorine, heavier than air and with lower diffusivity than ammonia, progressively accumulates towards the floor; the dispersion of ammonia, which is lighter than air, appears more influenced by diffusivity than by gravity, since a limited stratification is observed. These trends are more evident for case B scenarios, where the toxic flow rates are much lower. It is expected the results will give some useful insight into the dispersion phenomenon within highly confined spaces and maybe also provide some suggestion about ventilation systems design and emergency procedures.     

基于ARIMA-LOESS模型的危化品道路运输事故起数预测

文章针对危化品道路运输事故预测问题,运用差分自回归移动平均模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average,ARIMA)与局部加权回归模型(Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing,LOESS)的组合模型,对我国危化品道路运输事故发生起数进行预测。首先,基于2011—2018年我国发生的危化品道路运输事故数据建立ARIMA模型,利用SPSS软件进行模型拟合预测,获取危化品道路运输事故起数的线性部分;其次,应用MATLAB建立LOESS回归模型,对ARIMA模型预测偏差进行残差优化,获取危化品道路运输事故起数的非线性部分;最后,建立ARIMA-LOESS组合模型,利用组合模型对危化品道路运输事故发生起数进行预测,并根据真实数据对预测结果进行对比验证。结果表明:ARIMA-LOESS组合预测模型可较好拟合危化品道路运输事故数据序列,并修正单一模型的误差,获取较高的预测精度。该研究可为危化品道路运输安全与运行的趋势分析与判断提供更加可靠的数据依据,也可为危化品道路运输事故防控方案提供帮助。     

Fire and risk analysis during loading and unloading operation in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) bottling plant

The article focuses on analyzing risks associated with the gas transfer operation in a liquified petroleum gas (LPG) bottling plant in India. The transfer operations involve transferring liquified gas from the transport tanker to the underground storage tank. Due to the rapid expansion of the cities, many LPG bottling plants in India got surrounded by residential areas and business centers. Moreover, to maintain the supply chain, the frequency of the transfer operations at the bottling plant also increased. In this scenario, an accidental release of LPG during the transfer operation may lead to various consequences such as a pool fire, a fireball, and even a catastrophic rupture of the tank with a successive explosion of its contents. In the study, the operations involved in bottling plants are classified into different hazard zones and analyzed. The probability of occurrence of events leading to an accident is modeled using modeling tools such as ALOHA and PHAST. The consequences of an accident following various events, such as jet fire, fireball, etc., are modeled, and the simulation results are compared. The thermal radiation has been estimated as 4–40 kW/m², which could adversely affect the nearby population and could result in damaging plant machinery and equipment.     

Research on the prediction model of hazardous chemical road transportation accidents

In recent years, hazardous chemicals road transport accidents have occurred frequently, causing huge casualties and property losses, and accident risk assessment has become the focus of researchers' research. To predict the risk probability value of hazardous chemical road transport accidents, first, we compiled data on road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals in China in the past five years. And the nine nodes in the Bayesian network (BN) structure were defined in combination with relevant classification standards. The optimal Bayesian network structure for hazardous chemical road transport accidents was determined based on the K2 algorithm and the causalities between the nodes. Second, the node conditional probabilities were derived by parameter learning of the model using Netica, and the validity of the model was verified using the 5-fold cross-validation method. Last, the Bayesian network model of hazardous chemical road transport accidents is used to analyze accident examples, and the accident chain of “rear-end-leakage” is predicted, and the accident is most likely to be disposed of within 3–9 h. The study shows that the derived accident prediction model for hazardous chemical road transportation can reason reasonably about the evolution of accident scenarios and determine the probability values of accident risks under different parameter conditions.     

危险化学品公路运输事故新特点及对策研究

统计分析了2008年1月～2010年5月我国发生的485起危险化学品公路运输事故。从事故发生的原因、事故涉及的化学品、事故造成的危害、事故发生的月份分布及年份变化等几个方面,分析了近年来危险化学品公路运输事故的新特点及变化规律。经统计分析,道路交通事故是引发危险化学品运输事故的主要原因之一;侧翻是危险化学品车辆最容易发生的道路交通事故;而随着我国高速公路的迅猛发展,追尾造成的危险化学品运输事故数量呈上升趋势;危险化学品公路运输过程中易燃液体事故起数最多,爆炸品和毒性物质事故造成的人员伤亡最严重;春节前后取代夏季,成为近两年危险化学品运输事故高发期。针对这些特点,对我国危险化学品公路运输安全管理与监控提出了建议。     

3-D dispersion model for simulation of accidental toxic gas releases in a metropolitan area

Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations were performed to assess the potential chlorine leak scenario in the super-urban area of South Korea, where the human population density is very high and numerous buildings exist near operational water treatment facilities. Flame acceleration simulator (FLACS) was used to predict the consequence from accidental chlorine releases out of one of the water treatment facilities for the nearby area having a size of 5 km × 3 km approximately. The ability to precisely implement 3-D geometries is crucial for a successful 3-D simulation. Thus, a method was proposed to rapidly and accurately implement geometry by importing computer aided-design (CAD) files provided by a government agency, and processing them using Auto CAD and MicroStation software programs. An accidental release from an 18-ton tank was simulated with three different wind directions to determine the expected evacuation distances. Results from the study showed that the endpoint distances varied depending on the density and arrangement of the buildings. Moreover, we employed physical barriers with varying heights for mitigating the effects of toxic gas releases and simulated how effectively they decreased the concentration of released chlorine.     

基于AHP和灰色聚类的危化品道路运输安全评价

为客观评价危化品道路运输企业安全状况,防止危化品道路运输事故发生,提出基于层次分析法(AHP)和灰色聚类分析的危化品道路运输安全评价方法。首先以危化品与设备情况、环境情况、企业安全管理水平、在途监管水平及人员特性为一级指标构建危化品道路运输安全评价指标体系;其次,运用AHP计算各指标权重;最后,为了避免指标信息不完整所造成的误差,选用灰色聚类分析对各指标进行聚类分析,得出研究对象的安全等级。运用该方法对C企业危化品道路运输安全等级进行评价,评价结果显示该企业安全等级较高,但安全防护设备、交通状况、安全管理制度落实情况等指标安全性较低,同时验证了该方法具有适用性及有效性,为危化品道路运输企业安全评价提供了一种新的方法。     

Analyzing the safety impact of longer and heavier vehicles circulating in the European market

Introduction: The European Union (EU) has developed different strategies to internalize the costs of excessive motor traffic in the road freight transport sector. One of these is a relaxation of restrictions on the size and load capacity of trucks that circulate between member States and a proposal has been made for Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) to be allowed to circulate across borders. LHVs are the so-called “megatrucks” (i.e., trucks with a length of 25 meters and a weight of 60 tonnes). Megatrucks have allowed to circulate for decades in some European countries such as Norway, Finland, and Sweden, world leaders in traffic accident prevention, although the impact that cross-border traffic would have on road safety is still unknown. Methods: This article provides an econometric analysis of the potential impact on road safety of allowing the circulation of “megatrucks” throughout the EU. Results: The findings show that countries that currently allow megatrucks to circulate present lower traffic accident and fatality levels, on average. Conclusions: The circulation of this type of vehicle is only advisable in countries where there is a certain degree of maturity and demonstrated achievements in the field of road safety. Practical applications: European countries that have allowed megatruck circulation obtaining better road safety outcomes in terms of accidents, although the accident lethality rate seems to be higher. Consequently, introducing megatruck circulation requires a prior proper preparation and examination.     

电石公路运输事故特征与安全条件的研究

基于电石生产销售实际以及公路运输特征,笔者系统研究了电石公路运输应该具备的道路条件、人员条件、车辆条件、包装条件、仓储条件、自然条件、装卸条件、承运与交付条件;提出了电石道路运输耐压力、耐冲击、耐震动、耐水、耐低气压的实验设计;分析了电石公路运输事故的主要原因并结合电石公路运输事故中典型的火灾事故的特征;给出了电石火灾的水泥罐车灭火方法以及电石运输事故的紧急救援预案。     

STAMP模型在危化品道路运输事故分析中的应用研究

为保障危化品道路运输行车安全,基于STAMP模型构建危化品道路运输的分层安全控制结构,将安全问题看作是控制问题,并将系统工程思想融入事故预防中。在此基础上,引入沪昆高速湖南邵阳段“7.19”特别重大道路交通危化品爆燃事故并对其进行实证分析,从物理层、基础层、运营层及监管层动态分析导致事故发生的控制缺失。结果表明:基于STAMP模型的安全分析方法不仅可考虑由组件失效引起的事故,还可发现组件之间的组织问题及决策背景,并对事故致因做出更为详细的解释,为类似事故的分析和预防提供思路与参考。     

Simulation of scenario characteristics of LPG tank explosion accident and its contribution to emergency planning: A case study

Leakage and explosion of hazardous chemicals during road transportation can cause serious building damage and casualties, and adoption of highly-efficient emergency rescue measures plays a critical role in reducing accidental hazards. Considering a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) transport tanker explosion accident that occurred in Wenling, Zhejiang Province, China on June 13, 2020 as example, this study proposes a risk assessment framework. This framework recreates the leakage and explosion of the accident process using FLACS v10.9, suggests plans for evacuation, describes the rescue areas of different levels, and explores the influence of environmental factors on the evacuation and rescue areas. The results show that simulated and predicted distributions of fuel vapour cloud concentration and explosion overpressure can provide a reference basis for rapid rescue activities; the characterization of the dynamic effects of wind speed, wind direction, and temperature with respect to the evacuation and rescue areas can be used as theoretical support for on-site adjustment of rescue forces. The role of obstacles can prevent the expansion of the evacuation areas under low wind-speed conditions, and the presence of highly congested obstacles determines the level of the rescue area. The results obtained are important for the risk analysis and the development of emergency rescue measures in case of explosion accidents associated with transportation of hazardous chemicals on high-hazard and high-sensitive road sections.     

高速公路货车事故成因及货车专用道分析

为减少货车对行车安全的影响,在充分考虑货车行驶理论、交通环境和驾驶员特征的基础上,就载重货车交通对高速公路运营安全的影响进行研究。其结果表明,不同车型之间的运行速度差异、超载、驾驶员不良交通行为及纵向间距不足等是造成货车交通事故的主要原因。通过分析货车事故与交通状况的关系,从工程技术可行性等角度提出了货车专用道的设计方法,以有效执行客货分行,提高高速公路运营安全水平。     

Modelling accidental releases of dangerous gases into the lower troposphere from mobile sources

The article reports the results of different methods of modelling releases and dispersion of dangerous gases or vapours in cases of major accidents from road and rail transportation in urban zones. Transport accidents of dangerous substances are increasingly frequent and can cause serious injuries in densely inhabited areas or pollution of the environment. For quantitative risk assessment and mitigation planning, consequence modelling is necessary.

The modelling of dangerous substance dispersion by standard methods does not fully represent the behaviour of toxic or flammable clouds in obstructed areas such as street canyons. Therefore the predictions from common software packages as ALOHA, EFFECTS, TerEx should be augmented with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models or physical modelling in aerodynamic tunnels, and further studies are planned to do this.

The goal of this article is to present the results of the first approach of modelling using these standard methods and to demonstrate the importance of the next development stage in the area of transport accident modelling of releases and dispersions of dangerous substances in urban zones in cases of major accident or terrorist attacks.     

The potential of vehicle and road infrastructure interventions in fatal bicyclist accidents on Swedish roads—What can in-depth studies tell us?

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this article is to describe the characteristics of fatal crashes with bicyclists on Swedish roads in rural and urban areas and to investigate the potential of bicycle helmets and different vehicle and road infrastructure interventions to prevent them. The study has a comprehensive approach to provide road authorities and vehicle manufacturers with recommendations for future priorities.

Methods: The Swedish Transport Administration’s (STA) in-depth database of fatal crashes was used for case-by-case analysis of fatal cycling accidents (2006–2016) on rural (n?=?82) and urban (n?=?102) roads. The database consists of information from the police, medical journals, autopsy reports, accident analyses performed by STA, and witness statements. The potential of helmet use and various vehicle and road infrastructure safety interventions was determined retrospectively for each case by analyzing the chain of events leading to the fatality. The potential of vehicle safety countermeasures was analyzed based on prognoses on their implementation rates in the Swedish vehicle fleet.

Results: The most common accident scenario on rural roads was that the bicyclist was struck while cycling along the side of the road. On urban roads, the majority of accidents occurred in intersections. Most accidents involved a passenger car, but heavy trucks were also common, especially in urban areas. Most accidents occurred in daylight conditions (73%). Almost half (46%) of nonhelmeted bicyclists would have survived with a helmet. It was assessed that nearly 60% of the fatal accidents could be addressed by advanced vehicle safety technologies, especially autonomous emergency braking with the ability to detect bicyclists. With regard to interventions in the road infrastructure, separated paths for bicyclists and bicycle crossings with speed calming measures were found to have the greatest safety potential. Results indicated that 91% of fatally injured bicyclists could potentially be saved with known techniques. However, it will take a long time for such technologies to be widespread.

Conclusions: The majority of fatally injured bicyclists studied could potentially be saved with known techniques. A speedy implementation of important vehicle safety systems is recommended. A fast introduction of effective interventions in the road infrastructure is also necessary, preferably with a plan for prioritization.     

浅谈ITS技术在危险化学品公路运输过程中的应用

公路运输已成为危险化学品运输的主要方式之一,但危险化学品在公路运输过程中由于不确定因素的存在,导致事故频发,已受到国人的广泛重视。智能交通运输系统(ITS)的应用,大大地削弱或消除了以往诱发交通事故的不安全因素。如将该系统用于危险品公路运输过程中,也能有效地预防并减少化学事故的发生。在此基础上,笔者提出由安全运输管理层、基础设施层、共用信息层、增值服务层组成的危险化学品公路运输安全智能化管理系统,研究了危险化学品公路运输安全智能化管理系统的框架,讨论了ITS技术在危化品公路运输过程中的应用并提出相应的解决方案     

基于GM(1,1) Markov的危化品道路运输事故与交通事故预测及关系研究

为准确预测我国危化品道路运输及交通2类事故数量趋势,探究其内在联系,在单一的灰色GM（1,1）模型基础上与马尔科夫过程组合形成灰色GM（1,1）—马尔科夫预测模型,以2013—2017年2类事故数量的原始序列探讨了该组合预测模型的实际应用,采取平均相对误差、均方差比值、小误差概率对模型进行精度检验。研究结果表明:在组合预测模型较优情况的研究中,2类事故数量历年来波动性相似,因危险化学品自身的性质、包装和装卸使得2类事故量变化频率存在偏差;2018—2019年的危化品道路运输事故分别为485起和480起,交通事故分别为225 294起和234 454起。     

北京市道路交通安全现状分析及控制策略研究

在分析北京市道路交通安全形势以及事故特点的基础上,运用交通冲突理论分析道路交通事故发生的机理,论述道路交通事故发生的过程。并从安全系统工程学角度,使用交通事故显性/隐性致因模型对道路交通事故的致因因素进行分析,强调管理因素的重要性。最后,结合北京市道路交通现状,综合运用3E对策,讨论了改善道路交通安全的控制策略。通过加大违章行为惩罚力度、培养安全文化、建立道路交通事故应急救援体系以及应用智能交通技术等措施,消除道路交通系统中人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态,提高北京市道路交通安全水平。     

Research on OREMS-based large-scale emergency evacuation using vehicles

In densely populated urban areas, in the event of the toxic gases leak, how to accurately determine the risky zone and take effective measures to evacuate inhabitants quickly out of dangerous areas and minimize the unexpected losses is a tropical topic in China. First, the ALOHA code defined any interested accidents scenarios. For any different exposure times and concentrations, the distances down wind direction could be determined, which eventually generated the dead zone, wounded zone, injured zone and evacuation zone. Then, it presented the procedure of an emergency evacuation routes selection, the choice of the principle of refuges and shelters for evacuated inhabitants, as well as evacuation traffic organizations, vehicle assignments, real-time communications and other traffic evacuation strategies. Finally, the OREMS code was proposed to study the sudden leak accident and design emergency response policies (ERP). A sudden gaseous leakage incident in Tianjin Olympic stadium was chosen as an example to verify the raw ERP including the evacuation road network design, the evacuation time for vehicles, vehicle running conditions and the possible road congestions. Results showed that when the radium of the emergency evacuation scope is about 3 km, the time for evacuation of 50% vehicles is proper.