农业环境污染事故损失评价方法研究

通过对农业环境污染事故的分析,将农业环境污染事故造成的损失分为4部分.即农业生物污染损失、人体伤害造成的损失、农业资源损失和控制污染物扩散及治理污染所需费用.对各污染损失的计算、评估方法进行了探讨,在此基础上对已有方法进行了必要的改进,提高了各种方法的可操作性,并提出了农业环境污染事故损失评估中应注意的问题.研究成果对农业环境污染事故损失评估具有一定的参考价值.     

公共建筑火灾风险评价方法研究

建筑物的火灾危险度包括火灾对建筑物本身的破坏以及对建筑物内部人员伤害两个方面.本文在古斯塔夫火灾危险度法和层次分析法的基础上,采用模糊数学中的一些方法对火灾危险源进行处理.将火灾风险定义若干因子,每个因子对应火灾危险源的不同特性.通过评价得出建筑物所属的安全等级以及一定区域内建筑火灾风险的排序.在评价过程中考虑控制风险的力量,特别是消防队控制风险的力量对建筑物火灾风险的影响,使评估结果更加合理准确.该方法可以使消防部队快捷迅速的了解辖区内重要公共建筑的安全情况,以及如何合理的布置消防站点,降低城市区域风险.     

Seismic risk assessment of storage tanks in Turkish industrial facilities

In 1999, two earthquakes in northwest Turkey caused heavy damage to a large number of industrial facilities. This region is the most industrialized in the country, and heavy damage has a significant economic influence. Industrial storage tanks, ruptured by earthquakes, exascerbate damage through the spread of fire. Storage tanks are uniquely structured, tall cylindrical vessels, some supported by relatively short reinforced concrete columns. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the earthquake performance of Turkish industrial facilities, especially storage tanks in terms of earthquake resistance. Modeling a typical storage tank of an industrial facility helps to understand the structure’s seismic response. A model tank structure was modelled as a solid with lumped mass and spring systems. Performance estimation was done with 40 different earthquake data through nonlinear time history analyses. After the time history analyses, fragility analyses produced probabilistic seismic assessment for the tank model. For the model structure, analysis results were evaluated and compared. In the study, vulnerability of storage tanks in Turkey was determined and the probabilistic risk was defined with the results of the analysis.     

RAPID-N: Rapid natech risk assessment and mapping framework

Natech accidents at industrial plants are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences. For the mitigation of natech risk, authorities need to identify natech prone areas in a systematic manner. In order to facilitate probabilistic natech risk mapping, a unified methodology was developed that is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters, determination of damage probabilities of plant units, and assessment of probability and severity of possibly triggered natech events. The methodology was implemented as an on-line, extensible risk assessment and mapping software framework called RAPID-N, which allows rapid local and regional natech risk assessment and mapping with minimal data input. RAPID-N features an innovative data estimation framework to complete missing input data, such as on-site natural hazard parameters and plant unit characteristics. The framework is also used for damage assessment and natech consequence analysis, and allows easy modification of input parameters, dynamic generation of consequence models according to data availability, and extension of models by adding new equations or substituting existing ones with alternatives. Results are presented as summary reports and interactive risk maps, which can be used for land-use and emergency planning purposes by using scenario hazards, or for rapid natech consequence assessment following actual disasters. As proof of concept, the framework provides a custom implementation of the U.S. EPA's RMP Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology to perform natech consequence analysis and includes comprehensive data for earthquakes. It is readily extendible to other natural hazards and more comprehensive risk assessment methods.     

Integrating flare gas with cogeneration systems: Operational risk assessment

Flare gas utilization in a cogeneration plant is an attractive proposition considering its environmental and economic incentives. Evaluation of the operational risk of integrating flare gas with cogeneration is complex due to the uncertainty in flare gas quality and process conditions. The current study delves into the change in operational risk after modifying the existing cogeneration process with the addition of fuel from flare gas. Based on the process hazards evaluation, the current study identified two critical loss control events (or top events) - boiler gas temperature exceeding operating design temperature and rich fuel mixture in the boiler firebox. The underlying causes that may contribute and lead to these loss control events were identified using fault trees and were updated to the existing cogeneration scenarios. Similarly, different consequential events that may arise from the loss control events were analysed using event trees with existing system safeguards. A Bayesian network model with its explanatory power mapped all the identified dangerous scenarios from the fault trees and event trees to predict integrated systems reliability and diagnose causal factors. Bayesian Network analysis illustrates the dynamic cause-effect relationship and determines the risk escalation due to the changes in the composition of flare gas that is fed to the boiler. The presence of a higher percentage of hydrogen (above 40 mol%) in the flare gas escalates the risk of lean air to fuel ratio in the boiler firebox and increases boiler radiation zone duty. These conditions are detrimental to the boiler firebox operation and can result in critical scenarios such as flame impingement and tube rupture. Additionally, other consequences-a steam explosion and boiler stack explosion were also investigated. However, their probability of occurrence was relatively insignificant with the given frequency of flare gas utilization in the cogeneration system.     

安全评价中有关防雷问题的探讨

雷电作为自然界中一种剧烈的灾害性天气事件,给国民经济造成重大经济损失.防雷技术在安全评价中没有受到应有的重视,安全评价报告中还经常出现这样或那样的问题,不能对企业的安全工作起到应有的指导作用.     

考虑冰风载荷影响的输电线路运行风险评估方法*

为预防在极端冰灾环境下大规模停电事故的发生，提出1种考虑冰风载荷的输电线路运行风险评估方法。在极端冰风环境下，计算输电线路与杆塔所承受的总载荷，利用强度与应力干涉模型确定输电线路与杆塔的故障率，同时结合串联可靠性原理确定线路故障综合概率；利用非贯序蒙特卡洛法与线路故障综合概率设置预想故障集，结合直流潮流优化模型计算每条线路的失负荷量；综合考虑负荷等级与抢修恢复时间，确定线路失负荷的经济价值并定义为故障后果；将故障后果与线路故障综合概率的乘积定义为输电线路风险评估指标。以实际拓扑结构修正的IEEE30节点开展算例分析。结果表明:所提方法可对输电线路运行风险进行有效评估。     

安全生产事故人员伤残间接损失统计研究

针对安全生产事故的人员伤残损失统计,除直接经济损失外,还包括因死亡和伤残而导致的间接经济损失。为了计算我国安全生产事故导致的人员伤残损失,DALY(伤残调整寿命年)是目前国际疾病负担应用较多的统计指标,其将因伤残导致的健康寿命损失和死亡寿命损失综合计算。笔者首次应用DALY来计算2005年我国工矿商贸企业伤亡事故导致的伤残寿命损失,2005年因事故伤亡导致的健康寿命损失至少有3 651 862人年,折合成静态经济损失约878亿元。通过DALY计算健康寿命损失可以从一个全新的角度发现事故造成的间接损失,在调查处理安全生产事故时,除了直接损失外,还应该重视安全生产事故带来的间接损失。     

Mapping human vulnerability and risk due to chemical accidents

Chemical accidents in the vicinity of densely populated areas can cause colossal damage. Close proximity of chemical facilities to the general public has been identified as a major issue for increased human exposure in 43% of the accidents investigated by the U.S. Chemical Safety Board (CSB). This emphasises the need for incorporating societal factors in risk assessment to plan actions in order to minimise exposure during accidents. The purpose of this research is to develop a model for the assessment of human vulnerability and risk due to chemical accidents. A GIS based methodology is proposed which uses computer aided hazard modelling tools and technical guidelines to model accidents and assesses population vulnerability. The population vulnerability is determined based on a set of societal indicators derived from relevant research work, expert opinions and suggestions by World Bank. Risk is defined as the probable magnitude of harm to humans and dependent on both the degrees of hazard and vulnerability. A case study is carried out by applying the methodology to Meghnaghat Industrial Area in Bangladesh. Accident scenarios are built and hazard modelling software ALOHA is used to spatially display accident footprints. Vulnerability of population is assessed using data from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and field survey. The hazard footprints and vulnerability map are superimposed using mapping software ArcGIS to generate a composite risk map. The risk map is used to assess existing land use and recommendations are made for future land use planning. The composite risk map is expected to be of help for effective community response, emergency response planning and allocation of medical and support services during emergencies.     

工业设备地震破坏等级划分研究

我国工业企业地震灾害破坏等级规范中只有针对建筑物的震害破坏等级划分,而对在地震灾害中同样受损严重的工业设备,有关的国家规范以及研究成果却极少。分析了工业设备类型以及震害损失特点,并在借鉴国内外研究基础上,提出工业设备地震破坏等级划分原则和依据,将工业设备震害破坏划分为基本完好、轻微破坏、中等破坏、严重破坏以及毁坏五个等级,并给出每个等级下的宏观描述。工业设备震害破坏等级划分是对我国地震现场工作规范的补充和完善,对提高我国工业企业的地震灾害损失评估工作效率和准确度有重要意义。     

HAZOP研究与故障树分析在合成氨装置危险辨识中的应用

合成氨装置的原料、产品危险性高,并且生产过程复杂,因此在运行过程中可能导致火灾、爆炸、中毒等事故,有些事故甚至给社会和环境造成严重破坏.对HAZOP研究与故障树分析进行组合,应用在合成氨装置的危险辨识中.通过HAZOP研究,合成氨主体装置共发现风险因素23项,其中合成氨装置的合成气压缩单元安全隐患较多,因此对其进行故障树分析,合成气压缩机单元火灾、爆炸故障树的最小割集为72个,最小径集为6个.从基本事件结构重要度结果来看,压缩机三级出口压力探测器( PIA3-2)故障,对压缩机发生火灾、爆炸的影响程度最大,应重点防范.     

城市危险源爆炸灾害应急损失评估研究

采用冲击波伤害-破坏超压准则,首先确定了不同当量TNT炸药爆炸引起的人员伤害区域和建筑物破坏区域;再通过确定危险物爆炸所产生热量值的大小,将各种危险物料转化为相应当量的TNT炸药,可用于评估各种不同危险物料爆炸所造成的损失。同时,结合GIS软件平台,编制了爆炸灾害评估模拟程序。在软件平台中以图形的形式给出了设定条件下人员伤害区域及建筑物破坏区域的范围,根据区域内的人员分布和建筑物造价、财产多少,给出了定量的人员伤亡和经济损失应急评估。     

考虑设备跌落的天然气计量站失效后果计算方法

天然气计量站阀门多且检定流程中频繁使用桁车,常规天然气站场的失效后果计算方法难以评估由此带来的影响及后果。为此,在API 581标准基础上,考虑阀门截断作用对机械损伤事故的影响,选取管段组储气量为最大天然气泄漏量,并以动量定理为依据,研究了桁车失效所引发的设备跌落事故,建立了潜在影响面积计算模型;将影响面积内损伤的管段及设备、泄漏的天然气、伤亡的人员等折算为经济损失,形成了考虑设备跌落的天然气计量站失效后果计算方法;将该方法应用于某天然气计量站。研究结果表明:设备跌落事故损失金额为机械损伤事故的3倍;当考虑设备跌落事故时,管段风险等级由低级上升为中低级。研究结果可为天然气计量站失效后果评价提供理论支撑。     

A new approach for resource allocation for black spot treatment (case study: The road network of Iran)

Introduction: Currently, spatial and temporal distribution of safety resources in Iran is entirely based on expert opinions, regardless of network priorities. Considering the lack of resources for implementing safety treatments, prioritizing unsafe points is an important and complicated issue where the effectiveness of each safety treatment option should be thoroughly investigated. The political, social, and environmental aspects should also be taken into consideration, including social and political pressures and officials talks on less important topics. Obviously, this inappropriate resource allocation poses a serious challenge to the expected goals. In this study, a methodology based on economic and social issues is proposed to optimize the annual budget allocation for eliminating or reducing the risk of accident-prone points. In this methodology, the spatial and temporal distribution of budget is determined using a mathematical model aimed to maximize the benefits of reducing the accidents after deducting the costs of implementing the safety countermeasures. The outputs of this model include the safety countermeasure alternatives and a five-year time schedule for implementing them, or the alternative of no action with regard to budget, social, and judicial constraints. In order to evaluate the proposed method, it is applied to the road network of Iran and the results are compared with those of the conventional method that is currently used for resource allocation in this country. The results show that the proposed method leads to 15% higher benefits compared to the conventional method. Moreover, this method makes 641 safe points, which is about 17% more than the safe points resulted from the existing method. Therefore, the proposed method brings about a safer network as a result of the optimal allocation of available resources.     

对火灾综合评价体系中4项火灾指标合理性的探讨

火灾发生起数、火灾造成的直接经济损失、人员伤、亡情况是目前评价一个地区火灾形势和消防安全工作成效的主要依据.但随着社会的发展,继续以火灾发生的4项指标来评定消防工作成效的高低已显得不合理.分析了中国火灾统计数据,对比了经济发展与火灾多发的关系,参考了国际上通常采用的火灾形势评价指标,提出了我国应建立每10万人口每年发生火灾的平均起数,每万亿元GDP每年发生火灾的平均起数,火灾直接经济损失与GDP的比例,每10万人口火灾导致人员伤、亡情况的火灾评价体系,以客观地评价一个地区的火灾形势和消防工作成效,为各级政府对消防安全工作的正确决策提供依据.     

基于SPA模型的煤矿瓦斯危险源风险评价

根据危险源理论和三类危险源的观点,采用集对分析(SPA)方法,进行了安全一事故集对的同异反分析,指出应采取措施控制不确定项,尤其要控制其中的第二类、第三类危险源才能使系统趋于安全状态;同时建立了煤矿瓦斯危险源风险评价模型,通过联系度的计算得出煤矿瓦斯的安全等级.研究表明,将集对分析方法应用于某煤矿瓦斯危险源风险评价,计算简单,结果较为精确、可靠,为不确定系统的评价提供了一条新思路.     

Bolted flange joints equipped with FBG sensors in industrial piping systems subjected to seismic loads

The vulnerability of major-hazard industrial plants to natural hazards has been recognized as an emergent issue whose importance is underlined by the Sendai Framework, established immediately after the Tohoku earthquake of 2011, in Japan. Hence, seismic risk analysis is of paramount importance as testified by the intense research activity that characterized the last years. In this respect, structural health monitoring can represent a valuable tool able to strongly help the decision-making phase. Along this main vein, optical fibers (OFs) represent a class of sensors able to both monitor critical conditions, as leakage of hazardous material, and activate safety barriers, if any. More precisely, optical fibers represent an economic solution, whose characteristics appear particularly suitable for dangerous environments like major-hazard plants. However, investigations relevant to their use for seismic monitoring of chemical/petrochemical plants are rather limited, especially when subject to strong dynamic excitations. As a result, this paper deals with the analysis of optical fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) applied to bolted flange joints (BFJ) under cyclic loadings. More precisely, two experimental programs, i.e., a cyclic test on a single BFJ and a series of shaking table tests on BFJs of a multicomponent system, demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed monitoring systems in detecting hazardous conditions and, thus, their potential use in conjunction with safety barriers.     

油罐区泄漏及火灾危险危害评价

对某大型油罐区进行泄漏及火灾的危险危害评价.采用毒性物质泄漏扩散模型模拟油罐的泄漏事故,得出了泄漏介质在罐区附近的等质量浓度分布曲线;采用池火火焰与辐射强度模型,计算油罐、输油管道、汽车装油栈台等发生池火灾时的热辐射强度,并结合不同辐射强度值对人和设备的影响程度,给出了池火灾的影响范围.     

石油化工行业可接受风险水平研究

石油化工行业存在着巨大的潜在风险,为了明确该行业的风险可接受水平,制定一个合理可行的可接受风险准则极为必要.本文在对国内外风险可接受水平研究的基础上,系统分析了国内外有关标准,对生命风险水平、经济风险水平和环境风险水平确定的基本思想进行了详尽阐述,分别给出了3种风险的可接受水平公式,提出了确定石化行业可接受风险水平的方法,需同时满足可接受生命风险、经济风险和环境风险.     

The value of rapid damage assessment for efficient earthquake response

Every year earthquakes cause substantial economic losses and loss of life in many parts of the world. Earth observations may provide valuable information on spatial damage distribution and through that increase the efficiency of rapid response actions, finally resulting in reduction of earthquake induced losses. However, a methodology for quantitative assessment of the potential value of information in such a context has not yet been developed. That knowledge would be of high importance for planning and development of Earth observation systems on both regional and international levels when aiming at sustainable development goals. In this paper we suggest a stochastic modeling approach to assess the value of information for earthquake rapid response. Our analysis is focused on a rather short time interval after an earthquake occurrence (order of several hours) when there is a maximum need for urgent help to the earthquake victims. We use rescue efficiency as a performance measure of earthquake response actions; this efficiency is described in terms of timely arrival of rescue teams at places, where their help is mostly needed. We quantify the benefit of using spatial damage distribution information in terms of cost reduction/rescue efficiency gains. We intentionally conduct our analysis at a methodological level and do not go deeper into case studies to keep general conclusions traceable. The modeling exercise we present in the paper is a first step towards a more detailed and integrated approach that could contribute to better systematic understanding of earthquake response actions and ultimately improve their efficiency.