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1.
In order to clarify the correlation between the evolution path of dust explosion accidents and emergency decision-making, and to accurately predict the disaster damage levels of various disaster bearing bodies. This paper extracts 56 key scenario elements from four aspects, namely state, answer, goal and environment, based on the analysis of typical dust explosion accident cases. At the same time, a general scenario evolution path of dust explosion accident is constructed. Using fuzzy number set theory and dynamic Bayes joint probability model, the accurate solution of scenario state probability was realized. With the help of accident cases and dynamic Bayes approach, the dust explosion consequence prediction index system and evaluation criteria were constructed, covering factors such as dust explosion intensity, casualties, direct economic losses, equipment damage, building damage, environmental damage and other factors. A polyethylene wax dust explosion accident in a city of China was used to verify the dust explosion accident scenario evolution model and consequences prediction model. The predicted results were in good agreement with the actual damage of various carriers of the accident, which indicated that the model could be used for dust explosion accident prediction and disaster loss prediction. The research results provided reference and technical support for the prediction of dust explosion accident evolution direction, emergency aid measures decision and deployment, disaster damage prediction and evaluation. 相似文献
2.
神经元网络在安全评价中的应用 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
利用人工神经元网络进行安全评价可以克服传统的安全评价方法的缺点,提高安全评价方法的精确度和可靠性.笔者在BP神经网络基本原理的基础上,利用机会约束的思想建立了综合安全评价模型;运用反向传播算法和遗传算法对神经元网络进行训练;进而就系统综合安全评价模型进行求解,并对运用神经元网络进行综合安全评价的优点进行了分析.最后,通过对实例进行综合安全评价,得出计算结果,同时也证明将人工神经元网络应用于安全评价的可行性. 相似文献
3.
Most risk assessment methods have problems such as uncertainty, static structure, and lack of validation. Also, in most of these studies, less attention has been paid to human, managerial, and organizational issues. Therefore, this study proposes a risk assessment method based on the Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN) to prevent failure of firefighting systems (FFSs) in the atmospheric Storage Tanks of a Petrochemical Industry. The first stage of the study is the development of a fault tree (FT) and investigation of basic events (BEs). In this study, content validity indices and brainstorming technique were used to validate the FT structure and reduce the uncertainties of Completeness, Modeling, and Parameter. After determining the probability of basic events (BEs) by the expert team opinions and fuzzy logic, events were transmitted to the Bayesian Network (BN) and then analyzed with deductive and inductive reasoning, followed by sensitivity analysis in the GeNIe software. Finally, results of a case study in the Atmospheric Storage Tanks of the Methanol Floating Roof of a Petrochemical Industry showed that FBN simulation and FT validation could provide a practical way to determine FFSs probabilities, identify impactful events, and reduce the above uncertainties. Also, taking account of hidden factors of events, such as organizational and managerial factors, can help managers to prevent FFSs in tanks. 相似文献
4.
Research conducted on organisations that are able to sustain excellent safety records over long time periods suggests that there are a number of practices that organisations can adopt to achieve high levels of reliability and safety. These practices are often discussed in the context of major incidents to highlight the safety standards that high hazard organisations should try to emulate. However, previous research has predominantly focused on non-profit organisations, and comparatively little research has examined whether high reliability practices may be meaningfully applied to commercial contexts. This paper addresses this gap by using a qualitative approach to explore the types of reliability-enhancing practices implemented in a UK-based oil refinery in its attempt to achieve its ethos of ‘safe and reliable operations’. The findings illustrate the successful application of reliability-enhancing practices in several domains, including: hazard identification and control; emergency preparedness and collection; and analysis of incidents and near misses. Management commitment to safety emerged as an important factor underpinning the successful implementation of reliability-enhancing practices, highlighting its potential significance in the context of commercial organisations. However, promoting an open reporting culture and maintaining high levels of management visibility may be some of the challenges encountered by organisations striving to implement reliability-enhancing practices. 相似文献
5.
Of the numerous inherent safety assessment tools, a dynamic metric capable of investigating and incorporating the temporal risk evolution when conducting Inherently Safer Modifications (ISMs) is yet to be established. To this end, this work developed a Dynamic Inherent Safety Metric (DISM) and validated its functionality and viability through a case study. Firstly, the Information-Flow-based Accident-causing Model (IFAM) was adapted to construct the topology of Bayesian Networks (BN). Then, Bayesian deductive reasoning was executed to do crucial risk identification by ranking posterior probabilities. Finally, risk-based ISMs were performed to address the relatively contributing risk factors. The case study results show that the fire and explosion risk decreased by approximately a third after implementing ISMs, thus demonstrating that the modified processing scenario could be inherently safer than the original processing scenario. The newly developed inherent safety metric (i.e., DISM) can assist in temporal risk identification and assessment, and it is expected to function as a novel assessment tool for measuring and comparing the inherent safeness before and after implementing ISMs with simultaneous considerations on the time-varying risk factors. 相似文献
6.
This paper takes the safety in emergency processes as the starting point, from the perspective of scenario deduction, to study the consequences of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation. Through the statistical analysis of actual accident cases, 19 frequently occurring basic scenarios in emergency processes are summarized. The scenario evolution paths of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation are given by analyzing the evolution law of the accident development. Fuzzy numbers are introduced to express experts' qualitative judgment on accident scenarios. The empirical probabilities of scenario nodes are obtained by defuzzification calculation, and the state probability of each scenario node is calculated by using the dynamic Bayesian network joint probability formula. Under the comprehensive consideration about the probability statistics of actual accident cases, the critical scenario nodes on the evolution path and their final scenario probabilities are jointly determined to realize the optimization of the scenario evolution path. By constructing the correlation between the optimized scenario evolution path and the accident consequences, an accident consequence prediction model is established. The occurrence probability of accident consequences is calculated by the defuzzification method and dynamic Bayesian network. The accuracy of the consequence prediction model is verified by the July 16 Dalian's Xingang Harbor oil pipeline explosion accident. The research results provide scientific basis for helping decision makers to make the effective emergency measures that are most conducive to the rapid elimination of accidents and reducing the severity of accident consequences. 相似文献
7.
An integrated approach for performance assessment and management of safety barriers in a systemic manner is needed concerning the prevention and mitigation of major accidents in chemical process industries. Particularly, the effects of safety barriers on system risk reduction should be assessed in a dynamic manner to support the decision-making on safety barrier establishments and improvements. A simulation approach, named Simulink-based Safety Barrier Modeling (SSBM), is proposed in this paper to conduct dynamic risk assessment of chemical facilities with the consideration of the degradation of safety barriers. The main functional features of the SSBM include i) the basic model structures of SSBM can be determined based on bow-tie diagrams, ii) multiple data (periodic proof test data, continuous condition-monitoring data, and accident precursor data) may be combined to update barrier failure probabilities and initiating event probabilities, iii) SSBM is able to handle uncertainty propagation in probabilistic risk assessment by using Monte Carlo simulations, and iv) cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and optimization algorithms are integrated to support the decision-making on safety barrier establishments and improvements. An illustrative case study is demonstrated to show the procedures of applying the SSBM on dynamic risk-informed safety barrier management and validate the feasibility of implementing the SSBM for cost-effective safety barrier optimization. 相似文献
8.
安全程度的可能性分析方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
周长春 《中国安全科学学报》1996,6(5):35-37
提出了安全程度的模糊风险度量方法。在模糊可能性理论基础上研究了非确定因素危险程度的量化表示方法。提出了模糊系统安全分析的逻辑模型。这一方法是与基于概率理论之上的方法完全不同的安全分析方法。给出了基于概率可能性和模糊可能性基础上的安全程度的含义和系统安全分析方法及适用条件 相似文献
9.
The growing demand for natural gas has pushed oil and gas exploration to more isolated and previously untapped regions around the world where construction of LNG processing plants is not always a viable option. The development of FLNG will allow floating plants to be positioned in remote offshore areas and subsequently produce, liquefy, store and offload LNG in the one position. The offloading process from an FLNG platform to a gas tanker can be a high risk operation. It consists of LNG being transferred, in hostile environments, through loading arms or flexible cryogenic hoses into a carrier which then transports the LNG to onshore facilities. During the carrier's offloading process at onshore terminals, it again involves risk that may result in an accident such as collision, leakage and/or grounding. It is therefore critical to assess and monitor all risks associated with the offloading operation. This study is aimed at developing a novel methodology using Bayesian Network (BN) to conduct the dynamic safety analysis for the offloading process of an LNG carrier. It investigates different risk factors associated with LNG offloading procedures in order to predict the probability of undesirable accidents. Dynamic failure assessment using Bayesian theory can estimate the likelihood of the occurrence of an event. It can also estimate the failure probability of the safety system and thereby develop a dynamic failure assessment tool for the offloading process at a particular FLNG plant. The main objectives of this paper are: to understand the LNG offloading process, to identify hazardous events during offloading operation, and to perform failure analysis (modelling) of critical accidents and/or events. Most importantly, it is to evaluate and compare risks. A sensitivity analysis has been performed to validate the risk models and to study the behaviour of the most influential factors. The results have indicated that collision is the most probable accident to occur during the offloading process of an LNG carrier at berth, which may have catastrophic consequences. 相似文献
10.
基于安全系统工程的铁路站段安全管理信息系统研究 总被引：1，自引：5，他引：1
随着安全逐级负责制等各项安全管理机制的建立和运行以及ISO9000系列标准在铁路站段的推广和普及,要求铁路站段急需改变传统的、经验的管理模式,建立基于安全系统工程的、综合运用现代技术手段的安全科学管理体系.笔者在综合考虑人、机、环境三要素的基础上,结合安全系统工程方法,对铁路站段安全管理信息系统的基本功能、系统设计等进行了深入分析,实现了安全信息的自动处理、对事故或隐患的安全分析、安全预测和安全评价功能,为安全管理科学化提供有力的技术支持.以大同西电力机务段为例,对安全管理信息系统进行了实用和考核,取得了预期效果. 相似文献
11.
An increasing number of ships have chosen the suitable route to transport in Arctic waters during summer. Seeking a suitable model for risk decision-making in route planning is a necessary research topic at present. Due to its complex natural environment, there is significant uncertainty regarding ship navigation safety in Arctic waters. The process risk-based decision-making method to support route planning is established based on the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) risk assessment model for LNG carrier collision with ice or obstacles in Arctic waters. The decision-making process for ship navigation is dynamically associated with time. Therefore, a Markov Chain (MC) is built for each dynamic node in Bayesian belief network (BBN) to realize DBN associated risk assessment, which is called process risk and is applied to decision-making. Three possible routes for ships sailing from the Vikitsky Strait to the Long Strait in Arctic waters were selected in conjunction with the objective daily change data of wind speed, temperature, wave height, and ice condition. Simulations for risk decision-making in the ship navigation process are performed. Application examples show that the ship selected either ROUTE2 (Vikitsky Strait – Laptev Sea – Sannikov Strait – Eastern Siberian Sea – Long Strait) or ROUTE3 (Vikitsky Strait – Laptev Sea – Proliv Dmitriya Lapteva – Eastern Siberian Sea – Long Strait) in August as the best navigable route. 相似文献
12.
简要地介绍了有关信息熵理论的概念，讨论了安全系统的构成与性质，从墙的角度描述了系统中事故发生的不确定性及其外部条件和内部机制，探讨了信息熵理论在安全系统中的应用。 相似文献
13.
In chemical industrial areas, technological accidents triggered by natural events (Natech events) may escalate. Complex cascading multi-hazard scenarios with high uncertainties may be caused. Resilience is an essential property of a system to withstand and recover from disruptive events. The present study focuses on the change of the resilience level due to (possible) interactions between cascading hazards, chemical installations and safety barriers during the dynamic evolution of fire escalations triggered by a natural hazard (certain cascading multi-hazard scenarios). A quantitative resilience assessment method is developed to this end. The state transition of a system facing accidents in the context of resilience is explored. Moreover, the uncertainties accompanying an accident evolution are quantified using a Dynamic Bayesian Network, allowing a detailed analysis of the system performance in different time steps. System resilience is measured as a time-dependent function with respect to the change of system performance. The applicability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by a case study, and the effects of different configurations of safety barriers on improving resilience are discussed. The results are valuable to support disaster prevention within chemical industrial areas. 相似文献
14.
铁路安全管理综合评价的一种新方法 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3
针对铁路安全管理的现状,从实际应用角度出发,笔者提出了一种新的综合评价方法--动态集成综合分析评价法.该方法能把铁路安全管理定性与定量信息、历史事故信息与管理现状信息、安全管理措施与专家咨询意见有机地结合起来,构成一种动态目标评价体系,从而对铁路安全管理的多个方面进行综合评判,因此,能客观地反映了铁路安全管理的现状. 相似文献
15.
The paper reviews past progress in the development of methods and models for process safety and risk management and highlights the present research trends; also it outlines the opinions of the authors regarding the future research direction in the field. Based on the open literature published in the leading journals in the field of safety, risk and reliability, the review covers the evolution of the methods and models developed for process safety and risk management. The methods and models are categorized as qualitative, semi-quantitative, quantitative and hybrid. The progress in the last few decades is discussed in the context of the past. Developments in the current decade formulate the basis of the present trends; future directions for research in these fields are also outlined. The aim of the article is to provide a historical development in this field with respect to the driving forces behind the development. It is expected that it will help researchers and industrial practitioners to gain a better understanding of the existing concepts. At the same time the aim is to provide direction to bridge the existing gaps through research and developments. 相似文献
16.
The gas pipeline network is an essential infrastructure for a smart city. It provides a much-needed energy source; however, it poses a significant risk to the community. Effective risk management assists in maintaining the operational safety of the network. The risk management of the network requires reliable dynamic failure probability analysis. This paper proposes a methodology of condition monitoring and dynamic failure probability analysis of urban gas pipeline network. The methodology begins with identifying key design and operational factors responsible for pipeline failure. Subsequently, a causation-based failure model is developed as the Bowtie model. The Bowtie model is transformed into a Bayesian network, which is analyzed using operational data. The key contributory factors of accident causation are monitored. The monitored data is used to analyze the updated failure probability of the network. The gas pipeline network's dynamic failure probability is combined with the potential consequences to assess the risk. The application of the approach is demonstrated in a section of the urban gas pipeline. 相似文献
17.
介绍了一种适用于煤矿生产现场的动态安全评价方法。该方法对影响安全生产的诸多因素进行综合评价，得出综合的安全性结论 相似文献
18.
系统安全评价方法分析 总被引：18，自引：4，他引：18
论述安全、安全评价及其与相关概念之间的关系。依据安全科学的原理及客观系统的安全结构组成研究安全评价模型的建模原理，对现有安全评价方法进行较全面的分析、分类，提出了安全评价方法的理想模型。 相似文献
19.
易燃、易爆重大危险源评价的计算机系统设计 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
于立邮 《中国安全科学学报》1998,8(4):55-58
论述了重大危险源评价模型用计算机实现的方法和技术,给出了评价系统的模块划分及部分算法的编程技巧,列举了用此算法建立的计算机评价系统的部分运行示例 相似文献
20.
安全裕度研究与应用进展 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
随着人们对安全认识和需求的不断提高,安全裕度的概念越来越多受到工程设计界及人们日常生活的关注.笔者综述了安全裕度概念在不同工程技术领域应用情况,重点讨论了在压力容器设计、机械加工、电力系统运行、航空飞行管理、军备等复杂系统研究中安全裕度的含义、安全裕度设计方法以及应用安全裕度进行安全评定的方法.通过对安全裕度应用情况分析,表明安全裕度已经成为现代科学技术领域和日常生活中不可缺少的重要概念,广泛受到科技工作者和管理人员的高度重视.笔者还分析了目前安全裕度研究和应用方面存在的问题,提出了应尽快开展安全裕度理论的系统研究,使这一重要概念从目前主要以定性讨论为主上升到定量计算,建立安全裕度学科,并且使安全裕度理论成为安全科学重要组成部分的观点. 相似文献