The prevention of occupational injuries in two industrial plants using an incident reporting scheme

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to examine whether the introduction of an incident reporting scheme with feedback in two industrial plants had an effect on the number of major incidents. METHOD: An intervention design with measurements before the implementation of the incident reporting scheme and two years later was used to examine the relationship between incident rates, safety climate, the willingness to report incidents and perceived management commitment to safety. RESULTS: The results showed that a successful implementation of an incident reporting scheme was followed by a decline in the incidence of major incidents at a Danish metal plant. A key factor in implementing the scheme was top management commitment, which was lacking at another plant, where the implementation of a similar scheme failed. CONCLUSION: Although the study shows some encouraging results concerning the use of incident reporting schemes to prevent occupational accidents, the possibility to draw causal conclusions is limited in the present study, and further studies are needed before the effectiveness of such schemes can be evaluated with certainty.     

Dynamic accident modeling for high-sulfur natural gas gathering station

Dynamic accident modeling for a gas gathering station is implemented to prevent high-sulfur natural gas leakage and develop equipment inspection strategy. The progress of abnormal event occurring in the gas gathering station is modeled by the combination of fault tree and event sequence diagram, based on accident causal chain theory, i.e. the progress is depicted as sequential failure of safety barriers, then, the occurrence probability of the consequence of abnormal event is predicted. Consequences of abnormal events are divided into accidents and accident precursors which include incidents, near misses and so on. The Bayesian theory updates failure probability of safety barrier when a new observation (i.e. accident precursors or accidents data) arrives. Bayesian network then correspondingly updates failure probabilities of basic events of the safety barriers with the ability of abductive reasoning. Consequence occurrence probability is also updated. The results show that occurrence probability trend of different consequences and failure probability trend of safety barriers and basic events of the safety barriers can be obtained using this method. In addition, the critical basic events which play an important role in accidents occurrence are also identified. All of these provide useful information for the maintenance and inspection of the gas gathering station.     

Dynamic risk assessment using failure assessment and Bayesian theory

To ensure the safety of a process system, engineers use different methods to identify the potential hazards that may cause severe consequences. One of the most popular methods used is quantitative risk assessment (QRA) which quantifies the risk associated with a particular process activity. One of QRA's major disadvantages is its inability to update risk during the life of a process. As the process operates, abnormal events will result in incidents and near misses. These events are often called accident precursors. A conventional QRA process is unable to use the accident precursor information to revise the risk profile. To overcome this, a methodology has been proposed based on the work of Meel and Seider (2006). Similar to Meel and Seider (2006) work, this methodology uses Bayesian theory to update the likelihood of the event occurrence and also failure probability of the safety system. In this paper the proposed methodology is outlined and its application is demonstrated using a simple case study. First, potential accident scenarios are identified and represented in terms of an event tree, next, using the event tree and available failure data end-state probabilities are estimated. Subsequently, using the available accident precursor data, safety system failure likelihood and event tree end-state probabilities are revised. The methodology has been simulated using deterministic (point value) as well as probabilistic approach. This Methodology is applied to a case study demonstrating a storage tank containing highly hazardous chemicals. The comparison between conventional QRA and the results from dynamic failure assessment approach shows the significant deviation in system failure frequency throughout the life time of the process unit.     

Identification, analysis and dissemination of information on near misses: A case study in the construction industry

Near misses are well-known for providing a major source of useful information for safety management. They are more frequent events than accidents and their causes may potentially result in an accident under slightly different circumstances. Despite the importance of this type of feedback, there is little knowledge on the characteristics of near misses, and on the use of this information in safety management. This article proposes guidelines for identifying, analyzing and disseminating information on near misses in construction sites. In particular, it is proposed that near misses be analyzed based on four categories: (a) whether or not it was possible to track down the event; (b) the nature of each event, in terms of its physical features (e.g. falling objects); (c) whether they provided positive or negative feedback for the safety management system; and (d) risk, based on the probability and severity associated with each event. The guidelines were devised and tested while a safety management system was being developed in a healthcare building project. The monitoring of near misses was part of a safety performance measurement system. Among the main results, a dramatic increase in both the number and quality of reports stands out after the workforce was systematically encouraged to report. While in the first 4 months of the study – when the workforce was not encouraged to report – there were just 12 reports, during the subsequent 4 months – when the workforce was so encouraged – there were 110 reports, all of them being analyzed based on the four analytical categories proposed.     

工业企业动态安全风险评估模型在某炼钢厂安全风险管控中的应用

通过研究工业企业动态安全风险评估模型在某炼钢厂安全风险管控中的应用,探索该安全风险评估模型作为企业安全风险评估方法的可行性,为企业进行安全风险辨识、评级和分级管控选取风险评估方法提供参考。     

内-外因事故致因理论与实现安全生产的途径

采用辩证的方法对事故发生的机理进行研究,提出了内-外因事故致因理论,阐明危险源是导致事故的内因,人-物-环-管中的不安全因素是导致事故的外因.根据危险源的存在形式,指出了有效控制危险源的基本手段和措施.通过深入分析人-物-环-管中的不安全因素的产生及导致的后果,从技术和管理方面论述了防止事故发生应采取的措施.最后提出将本质安全化与风险预控管理相结合,是实现安全生产的根本途径.内-外因事故致因理论为企业安全管理提供了理论,具有实用价值和参考意义.     

基于模糊证据理论的铁路信号系统风险评价

为综合考虑风险中的不确定性对评价结果的影响,针对目前铁路信号系统风险评价中无法充分利用专家定性评价信息的问题,提出一种基于模糊证据理论的铁路信号系统风险评价方法。首先在对系统进行风险识别的基础上,采用模糊集理论对风险因素进行统一的模糊描述;然后将模糊集中的描述映射在证据理论的识别框架下,通过证据理论进行信息融合;再结合风险因素权重进行综合评价,确定铁路信号系统的风险等级。以无线闭塞中心临时限速处理功能为例进行风险评价,分析确定该功能的风险等级,评估结果与实际情况相符,验证了该方法的有效性、合理性和可行性。     

直升机电力作业非线性动态安全评价模型

为有效提高直升机电力作业安全评价能力,落实通用航空作业标准化和规范化管理,本文以直升机电力作业中人员因素、直升机设备因素、电力作业设备因素、自然环境因素、机场环境因素、组织因素、规章管理因素7个模块为一级指标建立安全评价指标体系。结合多位专家给出的概率语义值,基于模糊集与改进的证据融合理论量化各指标风险程度,同时采用三角模糊数法确定中间节点条件概率,最后利用贝叶斯网络模型灵活推理能力,提出直升机电力作业非线性动态安全评价模型。通过对某通用航空公司直升机电力作业安全状况评价分析可知,企业组织因素、电力作业设备因素以及人员因素为主要薄弱环节,需加强管理,可通过提高从业人员的安全防范意识、提高设备可靠性以及加强人员培训等措施对风险进行预防。     

企业安全管理模式的发展及其比较

在分析企业主要的安全管理模式的基础上,将我国企业安全管理模式的发展历程分为4个阶段:传统安全管理模式、对象型安全管理模式、过程安全管理模式和系统安全管理模式.通过比较不同企业安全管理模式的风险控制水平,探讨了未来安全生产管理的发展趋势.研究科学的、规范的、高效的安全管理模式,对于提高我国企业安全管理水平有着重要的意义.     

基于系统动力学的港口船舶通航风险成因耦合模型

为改善水上交通安全条件和有效避免风险事故的发生,需要研究港口船舶通航风险的形成机理。以港口船舶通航复杂性系统为视角,借助系统动力学方法进行港口船舶通航风险成因耦合仿真。首先,探讨港口水域船舶通航风险的形成原因及成因的相互影响和耦合类型;其次,基于港口水域船舶通航风险的人、船、环境与管理子系统构成因素,提出港口水域船舶通航风险成因之间的相互关系动力学流图;然后,建立非线性的系统动力学动态耦合模型,通过港口水域船舶通航风险成因耦合仿真,分析同质因素和异质因素的耦合作用。最后,结合青岛港船舶通航风险影响因素的数据,采用系统动力耦合模型进行港口水域船舶通航风险成因的耦合作用程度分析。结果表明:在港口船舶通航风险成因中双因素耦合作用下,与环境因素耦合造成的风险较大,特别是与交通环境因素耦合后风险大,且变异系数小。需要切实加强交通组织管理,从而降低客观因素的耦合程度,可有效避免通航事故,提高通航系统的安全可靠性。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情期间企业生产安全风险管理

本文在分析新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情期间企业安全风险特点的基础上,建立了疫情期间安全风险管理模型,分析了这一特殊时期企业外部变化,以及企业内部人、物、环境、管理变化带来特殊安全风险,提出了针对性的风险管控措施。