Quantitative risk analysis of fire and explosion on the top-side LNG-liquefaction process of LNG-FPSO

Since the massive use and production of fuel oil and natural gas, the excavating locations of buried energy-carrying material are moving further away from onshore, eventually requiring floating production systems like floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO). Among those platforms, LNG-FPSO will play a leading role to satisfy the global demands for the natural gas in near future; the LNG-FPSO system is designed to deal with all the LNG processing activities, near the gas field. However, even a single disaster on an offshore plant would put the whole business into danger. In this research, the risk of fire and explosion in the LNG-FPSO is assessed by quantitative risk analysis, including frequency and consequence analyses, focusing on the LNG liquefaction process (DMR cycle). The consequence analysis is modeled by using a popular analysis tool PHAST. To assess the risk of this system, 5 release model scenarios are set for the LNG and refrigerant leakages from valves, selected as the most probable scenarios causing fire and explosion. From the results, it is found that the introduction of additional protection methods to reduce the effect of fire and explosion under ALARP criteria is not required, and two cases of the selection of independent protection layers are recommended to meet the SIL level of failure rate for safer design and operation in the offshore environment.     

Assessing the influence of real releases on explosions: Selected results from large-scale experiments

The research activities in the project Assessing the Influence of Real Releases on Explosions (AIRRE) included a unique series of large-scale explosion experiments with high-momentum jet releases directed into congested geometries with subsequent ignition. The primary objective for the AIRRE project was to gain improved understanding of the effect that realistic releases and turbulent flow conditions have on the consequences of accidental gas explosions in the petroleum industry. A secondary objective was to develop a methodology that can facilitate safe and optimal design of process facilities. This paper presents selected results from experiments involving ignition of a highly turbulent gas cloud, generated by a large-scale, pressurised release of natural gas. The paper gives an overview of the effect on maximum explosion overpressures of varying the ignition position relative to the release point of the jet and a congested region placed inside the flammable cloud, with either a high or a medium level of congestion. For two of the tests, involving a jet release and the medium congestion rig, the maximum overpressures significantly exceeded those obtained in a quiescent reference test. The paper presents detailed results for selected tests and discusses the effect of the initial flow field generated by realistic releases – including turbulence, net flow and concentration gradients – on relevant explosion phenomena.     

Lithium-ion energy storage battery explosion incidents

Utility-scale lithium-ion energy storage batteries are being installed at an accelerating rate in many parts of the world. Some of these batteries have experienced troubling fires and explosions. There have been two types of explosions; flammable gas explosions due to gases generated in battery thermal runaways, and electrical arc explosions leading to structural failure of battery electrical enclosures. The thermal runaway gas explosion scenarios, which can be initiated by various electrical faults, can be either prompt ignitions soon after a large flammable gas mixture is formed, or delayed ignitions associated with late entry of air and/or loss of gaseous fire suppression agent. The electrical explosions have entailed inadequate electrical protection to prevent high energy arcs within electrical boxes vulnerable to arc induced high pressures and thermal loads. Estimates of both deflagration pressures and arc explosion pressures are described along with their incident implications.     

Resilience-based optimal firefighting to prevent domino effects in process plants

Domino effects triggered by fire can cause extremely severe damages to the chemical and process plants. In the need of a more effective prevention of fire domino effects, the present study focuses on firefighting which has received less attention compared to passive and active fire protection systems. Considering both the vulnerability and recoverability phases during fire domino effects, we have introduced a methodology for optimal identification of firefighting strategies so as to increase the resiliency of process plants in dealing with fire escalation scenarios. The area above the resilience curve (AARC), which is equal to the accumulation of loss of resilience over time, was considered as the metric to identify the optimal firefighting strategies. In other words, the strategy leading to the lowest AARC can be selected as the optimal strategy from a resiliency perspective.     

Inherent safety tool for explosion consequences study

The lack of formal integration between process design stages with risk and consequence estimation is a hurdle to designing inherently safe process plants. Conventional risk assessment methodologies are often not carried out concurrently with process design. Therefore, process designers lack the information about risk levels and consequence that may result from the process conditions being considered in a particular process route until the design is completed. Hence, effects of changes in process conditions on risk levels and consequence cannot be studied in a time effective manner during the design stages. Few studies have been identified on the possibility and viability of integrating risk estimation with process design. But viable framework and methodology for doing so has not yet been reported. This paper presents a feasible framework in which risk and consequences estimation can be part of design stages. A demonstrative tool named as integrated risk estimation tool (iRET) was developed by using process simulation software, HYSYS and spreadsheet, MS Excel as the platforms. iRET estimates risk due to explosions by using TNT equivalence method and the TNO correlation method. iRET has a potential to be extended to include all forms of risk such as fire, explosion, toxic gas releases and boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE). The paper also presents case studies to demonstrate the functionality and viability of using iRET in conjunction with process design. The results of these case studies have successfully shown that the risk due to explosion can be assessed during the initial design stage ensuring a safer plant. The framework and iRET there by presented here provide systematic methodology and technology to design inherently safer plants.     

基于模糊保护层的池火灾事故风险分析

为计算引发池火灾事故的风险值,提高事故风险的量化水平,判断现有风险控制措施是否满足风险容忍度的要求,为制定减缓风险措施提供依据,给出了新的池火灾风险评估模型。基于传统的保护层分析模型(LOPA),结合模糊集合理论,引入模糊风险矩阵进行风险评估,构建适用于引发池火灾事故的模糊保护层(fL OPA)风险分析模型。该模型的特点是将模糊逻辑和保护层分析结合,减少了传统保护层分析方法计算过程中的不确定性因素,引入严重度减少指数(SRI)概念,使严重度计算、风险评估更加准确。运用该模型对原油储罐泄漏池火灾事故风险进行分析,给出风险决策方案,判断现有保护措施是否能控制风险在可容忍范围内,实例验证了模型的可行性。     

Methodology for selecting hole sizes for consequence studies

Predicting release rates is the first step, and a crucial step, in consequence analysis. When the release is from an isolated volume of vessel and/or piping, the release rate decreases with time. There is often debate about what equivalent hole sizes should be used for a consequence study, and usually a range of hole sizes (3–4 values) is examined.This paper shows the effect of hole size on the ultimate impact of hydrocarbon releases for several scenarios and the methodology to select them. The impact depends on the intensity and exposure time. The intensity for a fire is the thermal radiation level, and that for an unignited release is the gas concentration. As the release rate decreases with time, so does the intensity. Probit functions describe the probability of a given impact based on the time-varying intensity. For a number of example scenarios, the predictions show that the worst-case hole size is an intermediate hole size, i.e., the impact goes through a maximum with increasing hole size. For smaller holes, the event is small enough that its impact is low even though the duration is long. For larger holes, the initial event is large but decreases so rapidly that the impact is low. For the intermediate hole, the event is large enough, and the duration long enough, to cause the greatest impact.This consequence study was made evaluating hole sizes with diameters between 5 and 400 mm in a fixed volume upstream process vessel. Worst case scenario consequence predictions for fire damages, effects on people and toxic releases were determined to be somewhat different for different hole sizes. However, hole sizes in the 30 mm–90 mm range seems to have the highest impact in dry gas service.     

FSRU作业过程火灾爆炸危险性评估研究

浮式储存和再气化装置（FSRU）运行过程中易导致火灾爆炸等事故的发生,为有效评估FSRU作业过程火灾爆炸危险性,采用火灾爆炸危险指数评估法,对运用FSRU的某浮式LNG接收终端进行危险性评估;选取LNG运输船与FSRU装料作业等9个单元,研究确定了一般工艺危险性系数、特殊工艺危险性系数、安全措施补偿系数等参数,得出了补偿前后的火灾爆炸危险性指数,有效评估了FSRU作业过程火灾爆炸危险性,并基于研究结果提出了保障FSRU作业安全的对策措施与建议。研究结果表明,安全措施补偿前,缘于LNG/NG本身的火灾危险性和数量较大,能量高度集中,LNG运输船与FSRU装料作业等单元的火灾爆炸危险等级均达到了“非常大”;在采取了一系列的安全措施补偿后,火灾爆炸危险指数降低了3/5左右。这对系统深入地研究FSRU作业安全具有较重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。     

Mitigation performance of the process protection system on the accident consequences of H2S-containing natural gas release and explosion

Toxic loads and explosion overpressure loads pose grave threats to the offshore oil and gas industry. Many safety measures are adopted to prevent and mitigate the adverse impacts caused by toxic loads and explosion overpressure loads. As a general safety barrier, the process protection system has been widely used but rarely evaluated. In order to assess the barrier ability, the mitigation performance of the process protection system is concerned in this study. Firstly, several chain accidents of H₂S-containing natural gas leakage and explosion are simulated by varying the response time of the process protection system with CFD code FLACS. Qualitative assessment is conducted based on the variation of the dangerous load profiles. Furthermore, the quantitative assessment of the mitigation performance is accomplished by considering its ability in reducing the probability of fatality. Emergency evacuation and no emergency evacuation are considered respectively in the quantitative assessment. The results prove that the process protection system takes effect on mitigating the toxic impact and explosion overpressure impact. The results also demonstrate that although the emergency evacuation may result in a severer explosion load to the operator, the process protection system can mitigate the adverse impacts regardless of whether the emergency evacuation is conducted or not.     

粉尘爆炸特征和预防措施探讨

随着现代工业的发展,粉末技术得到了广泛应用,使得粉末产物日益增多.许多粉体加工企业对粉体的相关危害知识没有深刻的认识,这些物质在安全生产、储存、运输和应用过程中,安全管理比较混乱,没有做到很好的防护,缺乏必要的防火防爆设施,再加上操作人员思想上的麻痹大意.粉尘爆炸的危险性大大增加,粉尘爆炸的事故也频繁发生.粉尘爆炸具有很强的破坏力,往往造成重大人员伤亡和严重损失,已经越发成为工业安全不可忽视的重要问题.本文从粉尘爆炸的基本特征出发,论述了粉尘爆炸的机理、条件、特点.根据粉尘爆炸需要的条件,从可燃物、助燃物和点火源三个方面,提出了在实际生产中,预防粉尘爆炸的一些具体措施,以期指导安全生产.     

The influence of inert gas on limiting experimental safe gap of fuel-air mixtures at various initial pressures

The Maximum Experimental Safe Gap (MESG) is an important criterion to assess the propagation of flames through small gaps. This safety-related parameter is used to classify the flammable gases and vapors in explosion groups, which are fundamental to constructional explosion protection. It is used both, for the safe design of flameproof encapsulated devices as well as for selecting flame arresters appropriate to the individual application. The MESG of a fuel is determined experimentally according to the standard ISO/IEC 80079-20-1:2017 at normal conditions (20 °C, 1.0 bar) with air as oxidizing gas. The aim of this work is to investigate the effect of inert gas addition on the MESG in order to assess the effectiveness of inertization in constructional explosion protection. The term limiting experimental safe gap (S_G) is used for the result of these measurements. The fuel-air mixtures (fuels: hydrogen, ethylene, propene, methane) used as representatives for the explosion groups in flame arrester testing were chosen and diluted with inert gas (nitrogen, carbon dioxide) before testing. The dependence of the limiting experimental safe gap on the total initial pressure, amount and nature of inert additive is discussed. The initial pressure was varied up to 2.0 bar to include increased pressure conditions used in flame arrester testing. Apart from the well-known reciprocal dependence on the initial pressure, the added inert gas results in an exponential increase of S_G. This effect depends on the inertizing potential of the gas and is therefore different with nitrogen and carbon dioxide. The ranking of the fuels is the same as with MESG. As a result, various mixtures of the same limiting experimental safe gap can now be chosen and tested with an individual flame arrester to prove the concept of a constant and device-related limiting safe gap. The work was funded by BG-RCI in Heidelberg (PTB grant number 37056).     

基于火灾场景的大型浮顶储罐区全过程风险防范体系研究

针对大型浮顶罐区火灾事故风险特征,通过对火灾场景辨识及其火灾风险影响因素分析,结合预防初期火灾场景风险要素和消防系统有效性,提出了罐区火灾事故现实风险的评估框架及确定方法。在此基础上,构建了基于火灾场景的全过程风险防范体系,包括库区评估规划、罐体本质安全化设计、库区火灾预防、罐区火灾扑救、园区火灾事故管理等5个方面,并给出相应的对策措施。大型浮顶罐区全过程火灾风险防范是一个持续改进的结构化过程风险管理体系,有助于实现罐区火灾风险的过程安全管理,进而提高仓储型园区的整体消防安全保障能力和风险防控水平。     

粉碎研磨设备粉尘爆炸的预防

粉碎研磨设备火灾爆炸事故发生率较高。针对该过程的火险特点,防火对策应从防止粉尘沉积,消除粉尘源,防止摩擦、撞击、生热,消除静电危害,搞好工艺防火,惰性介质保护,设置防爆泄压装置,粉尘爆炸的抑制,火灾事故处理措施,加强消防安全教育诸方面加以考虑。     

Analytical modelling of hydrocarbon pool fires: Conservative evaluation of flame temperature and thermal power

As well known, risk is a combination of probability and consequences of an accident. In analyzing the consequence of accidental hydrocarbon fires and the potential for domino effects, the evaluation of the flame extent and temperature are of the utmost importance. Since the primary effects of pool fires are connected to thermal radiation and issues of interplant/tank spacing employees’ safety zones, firewall specifications are to be addressed on the basis of a proper consequence analysis. By means of real scale experimental tests it was verified that both the thermal power and the flame temperature, T_f, increase as the pool area increases, up to reach maximum values in connection with a “critical pool dimension”. Dealing with pool areas higher than the critical one, experimental results, performed by different researchers at different scales, show a decrease of T_f. An in-depth analysis of the different concurring phenomena connected to a pool fire development allowed identifying the limiting step controlling the flame temperature. In fact, the trend of T_f is mainly determined by the increasing difficulty of oxygen diffusion within the internal bulk of gaseous hydrocarbons. In this article, we propose a novel pool fire modelling approach based on the simplified physical phenomena occurring in a circular turbulent diffusion fire and suitable to provide a theoretical insight into the above-mentioned experimental trends and to obtain the maximum values of the flame temperature and of the thermal power.The geometry of the pool is dictated by the surroundings (i.e., diking) and the analytical models here presented were successfully applied to the common situation of circular pools.However, it must be remarked that the developed model, matching fairly well experimental data for different hydrocarbons, can be applied in modelling similar scenarios characterized by different geometric or environmental conditions (e.g. road and rail tunnel fires).     

基于VR技术的大型储罐火灾爆炸仿真软件设计

为了研究大型储罐事故后果的严重性，针对大型储罐火灾爆炸试验难以实施的情况，以虚拟现实技术为研究手段，重现大型储罐火灾和爆炸事故过程；通过对储罐火灾和爆炸事故进行理论分析，优选出大型储罐火灾爆炸事故后果数学模型；基于某商业原油储备库布置，利用3Ds Max软件对库区进行建模，结合Qt界面编写技术和OSG粒子效果技术进行交互式设计，划分火灾和爆炸2大仿真模块，设计各模块下属基本功能，形成1套基于真实场景的大型储罐火灾爆炸事故后果三维仿真模拟软件。研究结果表明:基于VR技术的大型储罐火灾爆炸仿真软件具有较强的沉浸感和交互性等特点，能够实时仿真大型储罐火灾爆炸事故动态演变过程，降低大型储罐火灾爆炸试验成本，同时为制定事故应急预案和应急处置措施提供科学参考。     

Theoretical pressure prediction of confined hydrogen explosion considering flame instabilities

In order to ensure the safe utilization of hydrogen energy, the explosion pressure behavior is extremely important to design chemical equipment and evaluate explosion accident consequence. This paper is aimed at establishing a theoretical method of predicting explosion pressure behavior in the confined chamber by considering flame instabilities. The tendency of flame wrinkling factor in the pressure-buildup stage is firstly evaluated using large eddy simulation and the compensation theory. The limiting value of flame wrinkling factor during entire explosion process is calculated using the fractal theory. Finally, the dynamic model of flame wrinkling factor is implemented into the smooth flame model. The results demonstrated that the flame wrinkling factor in the pressure-buildup stage almost increases linearly with time. The limiting value of flame wrinkling factor is 2.4649. The explosion pressure will be underestimated using the smooth flame model, and the calculated explosion pressure in the isothermal condition is smaller than that in the adiabatic condition. When the fully turbulent flame is considered, the explosion pressure will be overpredicted significantly. By changing the confined chamber size, the explosion pressure could be reproduced relatively satisfactorily when the flame wrinkling factor is assumed to increase exponentially. The explosion pressure prediction must consider the effect of adiabatic compression and flame instabilities on burning rate.     

An extension to Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) application in petrochemical process industry

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique in risk management associated with identified hazards specific to focused fields. It is a comprehensive, structured and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing hazards of complex systems. To conduct a quantitative FTA, it is essential to have sufficient data. By considering the fact that sufficient data is not always available, the FTA method can be adopted into the problems under fuzzy environment, so called as Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA). This research extends FFTA methodology to petrochemical process industry in which fire, explosion and toxic gas releases are recognized as potential hazards. Specifically, the case study focuses on Deethanizer failure in petrochemical plant operations to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Consequently, the study has provided theoretical and practical values to challenge with operational data shortage in risk assessment.     

Fire and explosion assessment on oil and gas floating production storage offloading (FPSO): An effective screening and comparison tool

Fires and explosions have been identified as major potential hazards for Oil and Gas Floating Production Storage Offloading (FPSO) installations and pose risk to personnel, assets, and the environment. Current fire and explosion assessment (FEA) tools require physical effect modeling software and follows standards from API, ISO, and engineering practices. However, the tools are not specific to any particular system such as an FPSO, and do not provide comprehensive guidance for safety engineers to perform FEA.This paper discusses the development of a screening and comparison tool for FEA on FPSOs and the incorporation of an expert system into the tool. The results are computerized using MS Excel/VBA to provide a structured and comprehensive assessment on each equipment and module handling natural gas, crude oil, methanol and diesel on FPSO topsides.This tool features built-in calculations for jet and pool fire size estimation for gas/liquid releases, and the ability to perform Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) to specify the personnel and equipment risk for varying leak sizes and process conditions. Control and recovery measures are incorporated as an expert system based on report findings, engineering practices, and relevant standards. Bowtie analysis is applied in the tool to define detailed control and recovery measures for the FPSO based on the incident scenarios. An explosion assessment is performed by incorporating physical effect modeling software results.Unique features provided in the tool include fire and radiation contour mapping on an FPSO layout to help determine personnel and equipment risk more accurately and fire pump sizing that can be used to verify the amount of water deluge system required to mitigate fires and explosions. In addition, flexibility of data input (process data, failure rate data, etc.) and user interfaces assist safety engineers to screen and compare process alternatives, check design quality, and evaluate design options at any design stage.     

阻燃抑爆柴油的燃烧性能和排放研究

以-10号军用柴油为基础油配置阻燃抑爆柴油,在WP10.290发动机上进行了台架实验,考察了使用阻燃抑爆柴油时的动力性、经济性和排放性。结果表明:燃用阻燃抑爆柴油相比于燃用-10号军柴会一定程度上降低输出功率和扭矩,动力性能下降2.31%~4.26%;燃用阻燃抑爆柴油时平均质量燃油消耗率较燃用军用柴油时增加了5.74%。体积燃油消耗率与军用柴油相比,平均增加了4.32%;能够降低NO的排放,NO的排放量相较于-10号军柴降低了7%~19%;能够降低排气温度,相比较于-10#军柴,阻燃抑爆柴油的排气温度最大可以降低19.5℃。     

油库火灾原因分析

油库火灾爆炸事故除易造成人员中毒、伤亡、经济损失巨大外,还会导致环境污染严重。近十年来油罐单罐面积越来越大,油库火灾爆炸发生的次数和损失与2000年以前相比急剧增长,特别是对环境的污染日益引起人们的重视。通过对23起油库火灾爆炸事故案例进行分析,发现静电是引发油库火灾爆炸几率最大的火源,输、卸油是最易引发油库火灾的操作工艺,人为的操作失误是油库发生火灾爆炸事故的主要原因。探索油库火灾爆炸事故发生的原因,对减少、避免同类事故的发生具有重要价值和意义。