ExSys-LOPA for the chemical process industry

The chemical process industries are characterized by the use, processing, and storage of large amounts of dangerous chemical substances and/or energy. Among different missions of chemical plants there are two very important ones, which: 1. provide a safe work environment, 2. fully protect the environment. These important missions can be achieved only by design of adequate safeguards for identified process hazards. Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) can successfully answer this question. This technique is a simplified process of quantitative risk assessment, using the order of magnitude categories for initiating cause frequency, consequence severity, and the likelihood of failure of independent protection layers to analyze and assess the risk of particular accident scenarios. LOPA requires application of qualitative hazard evaluation methods to identify accident scenarios, including initiating causes and appropriate safeguards. This can be well fulfilled, e.g., by HAZOP Studies or What-If Analysis. However, those techniques require extensive experience, efforts by teams of experts as well as significant time commitments, especially for complex chemical process units. In order to simplify that process, this paper presents another strategy that is a combination of an expert system for accident scenario identification with subsequent application of LOPA. The concept is called ExSys-LOPA, which employs, prepared in advance, values from engineering databases for identification of loss events specific to the selected target process and subsequently a accident scenario barrier model developed as an input for LOPA. Such consistent rules for the identification of accident scenarios to be analyzed can facilitate and expedite the analysis and thereby incorporate many more scenarios and analyze those for adequacy of the safeguards. An associated computer program is under development. The proposed technique supports and extends the Layer of Protection Analysis application, especially for safety assurance assessment of risk-based determination for the process industries. A case study concerning HF alkylation plant illustrates the proposed method.     

HAZOP分析中LOPA的应用研究

通过分析危险与可操作性研究(HAZOP)方法的不足和保护层分析(LOPA)方法的功能,提出将LOPA融入HAZOP分析中,能进一步提高HAZOP的事故预防能力和丰富HAZOP的分析结果。介绍LOPA基本方法,阐述LOPA融入HAZOP的机理、衔接关系及分析步骤,并通过一个化工工艺流程危险性分析实例说明LOPA的作用及如何将LOPA融入HAZOP分析中。结果表明:在HAZOP分析中融入LOPA方法,能实现对现有保护措施的可靠性进行量化评估,确定其消除或降低风险的能力,从而寻求是否需要附加减少风险的安全保护措施。     

Case study: T2 Laboratories explosion

A tragic explosion resulting from a runaway chemical reaction occurred at the T2 Laboratories, Inc. facility in December 2007. The U.S. Chemical Safety Board (CSB) completed an incident investigation of the T2 explosion, identifying the root cause as a failure to recognize the runaway reaction hazard associated with the chemical it was producing. Understanding the consequences of process upset conditions is critical to determine risk. This paper will focus on lessons learned from this incident including a comprehensive hazard assessment for reactive chemicals as well as proper collection and application of adiabatic calorimetry data to characterize the chemical reaction and determine appropriate mitigation strategies. Examples will be provided to establish safer operating conditions, implement safeguards and reduce the overall risk.     

基于标签生命周期的射频识别系统安全和隐私风险研究

针对无线射频识别(RFID)技术应用的日益重要性和RFID系统的安全性现状,基于RFID技术机理,从安全和隐私风险的角度阐述RFID技术及其应用业务进程,并分析RFID技术所面临的主要安全和隐私危险问题。在此基础上,基于标签生命周期(RTLC)方法,详细分析标签在使用过程中所存在的安全漏洞和威胁性,信息资产的完整性和可用性,以及隐私情况。然后从实际应用的角度提出减轻安全和隐私风险的具体措施,以期为解决RFID应用中存在的各种安全和隐私问题提供帮助。分析表明,采用RTLC方法,并根据业务进程的不同阶段采取相应的安全措施可以降低或缓解RFID系统的安全和隐私风险。     

Risk assessment and risk reduction of an acrylonitrile production plant

Reducing accident occurrence in petrochemical plants is crucial, thus appropriately allocating management resources to safety investment is a vital issue for corporate management as international competition intensifies. Understanding the priority of safety investment in a rational way helps achieve this objective.In this study, we targeted an acrylonitrile plant. First, Dow Chemical's Fire and Explosion Index (F&EI) identified the reaction process as having the greatest physical risk. We evaluated the severity of accidents in the reaction process using the Process Safety Metrics advocated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS); however, this index does not express damages a company actually experience. To solve this problem, we proposed a new metric that adds indirect cost to CCPS metrics. We adopted fault tree analysis (FTA) as a risk assessment method. In identifying top events and basic events, we attempted to improve the completeness of risk identification by considering accidents from the past, actual plant operation and equipment characteristics, natural disasters, and cyber-attacks and terrorist attacks. Consequently, we identified the top events with high priority in handling because of serious accidents as fire/explosion outside the reactor, fire/explosion inside the reactor, and reactor destruction. The new CCPS evaluation index proposed in this study found that fire and explosion outside the reactor has the highest severity. We considered the creation of the fault tree (FT) diagram of the top event, estimating the occurrence probability, and identifying the risk reduction part and capital investment aimed at risk reduction. As an economically feasible selection method for risk reduction investment, using the difference in loss amounts before and after safety investments indicated investment priority.     

工业控制系统功能安全与信息安全一体化防护措施研究

现代工业控制系统面临着越来越严峻的信息安全问题,因此信息安全措施越来越广泛地应用于工业控制系统当中。然而,这些信息安全措施是否会对原有的功能安全措施产生影响,两者之间是否存在潜在的矛盾和冲突,两者如何有效兼容运行,业内并无公认的、可落地执行的解决方案。为保证工业控制系统安全功能的可靠执行,同时又能有效抵御越来越严重的信息安全攻击,须探索一种适用于工业控制系统的、有效确保信息安全与功能安全措施相互兼容的技术方案。以典型的SIL3和SL3工业控制系统为例,基于功能安全措施,逐一遍历信息安全措施,识别出两者潜在的矛盾问题,采用事件树和风险分析相结合的方法给出功能安全与信息安全协同解决方案,最终得到工业控制系统功能安全与信息安全一体化防护措施。     

A proactive process risk assessment approach based on job hazard analysis and resilient engineering

Complex systems often experience a long period of incubation before accidents occur. Therefore, a proactive risk assessment is essential for process safety. The conventional job hazard analysis (JHA) method has been an effective tool to conduct a process risk assessment in the high-risk industrial field. However, the conventional JHA is inadequate for the proactive risk assessment since it is usually conducted during and before one specific operation process. Operations such as startup and maintenance are performed repeatedly on the lifecycle of a plant. Therefore, the risk reduction measures for the industrial process should include not only preventive actions obtained from the conventional JHA but also recovery ones. Resilience engineering (RE) has proven to be helpful for the recovery analysis of a complex system. The objective of this paper is to propose a proactive and comprehensive process risk assessment approach based on JHA and RE. The mechanism of applying RE to address operation process risk is illustrated. The integrated approach can provide guidelines to establish proactive risk reduction measures as well as maintain a low-risk level. Finally, a gas transmission startup process risk assessment case is presented to demonstrate its applicability.     

Safety investment optimization in process industry: A risk-based approach

Process plant safety is a critical indicator of organizational performance. Adequate investment into safety practices to avoid future accident cost is therefore a beneficial strategy. The current approach to such investments in the process industry is driven largely by simple risk-based heuristics, insurance market premiums, organizational culture and management judgment. There is, however, an absence of an overarching methodology to assist such an effort. Therefore, there is a need for developing a robust decision-making framework for enabling systematic and optimal allocation of financial resources across all significant risk elements within a process plant.The present work proposes a safety investment optimization (SIO) framework for a typical process plant. Such an optimization approach targets maximal reduction of risk values across all potential hazards within the constraint of a given safety investment budget at the incipient stage of establishing a plant such that it saves future cost to company by reducing the risk from accidents. At the same time the framework takes into account the need to comply with the regulatory requirements imposed by the government. Additionally, access to insurance market as a strategy to transfer risk is also integrated. Finally, the residual risks are managed through investments in selective safeguards while ensuring that the benefits over-weigh the cost of such an exercise. For illustrating the application of the framework, a representative process plant with a select number of risk scenarios is chosen and all steps suggested by the framework are demonstrated quantitatively. It is anticipated that the proposed SIO framework will help optimal resource allocation for managing the risks implicit in a typical process plant.     

A fuzzy risk assessment approach for occupational hazards in the construction industry

The techniques in the construction industry have been improved due to the rapid development of science and technology. However, the constructional hazards are not decreased as expected. To reduce or prevent occupational hazards in the construction industry, a fuzzy risk assessment method was proposed to provide a prevention and improvement technique against occupational hazards. This method used two-stage quality function deployment (QFD) tables to represent the relationships among construction items, hazard types and hazard causes. A fuzzy analytic network process (ANP) method was developed to identify important hazard types and hazard causes. Failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) was performed to assess the risk value of hazard causes based on the fuzzy inference approach. The proposed method was applied to a telecom engineering company in southern Taiwan. The performance evaluation result indicated that this method can provide satisfactory risk assessment values of hazard causes and relevant improvement strategies.     

Integrating flare gas with cogeneration systems: Operational risk assessment

Flare gas utilization in a cogeneration plant is an attractive proposition considering its environmental and economic incentives. Evaluation of the operational risk of integrating flare gas with cogeneration is complex due to the uncertainty in flare gas quality and process conditions. The current study delves into the change in operational risk after modifying the existing cogeneration process with the addition of fuel from flare gas. Based on the process hazards evaluation, the current study identified two critical loss control events (or top events) - boiler gas temperature exceeding operating design temperature and rich fuel mixture in the boiler firebox. The underlying causes that may contribute and lead to these loss control events were identified using fault trees and were updated to the existing cogeneration scenarios. Similarly, different consequential events that may arise from the loss control events were analysed using event trees with existing system safeguards. A Bayesian network model with its explanatory power mapped all the identified dangerous scenarios from the fault trees and event trees to predict integrated systems reliability and diagnose causal factors. Bayesian Network analysis illustrates the dynamic cause-effect relationship and determines the risk escalation due to the changes in the composition of flare gas that is fed to the boiler. The presence of a higher percentage of hydrogen (above 40 mol%) in the flare gas escalates the risk of lean air to fuel ratio in the boiler firebox and increases boiler radiation zone duty. These conditions are detrimental to the boiler firebox operation and can result in critical scenarios such as flame impingement and tube rupture. Additionally, other consequences-a steam explosion and boiler stack explosion were also investigated. However, their probability of occurrence was relatively insignificant with the given frequency of flare gas utilization in the cogeneration system.     

Inherent safety in offshore oil and gas activities: a review of the present status and future directions

Inherent safety is a proactive approach for hazard/risk management during process plant design and operation. It has been proven that, considering the lifetime costs of a process and its operation, an inherently safer approach is a cost-optimal option. Inherent safety can be incorporated at any stage of design and operation; however, its application at the earliest possible stages of process design (such as process selection and conceptual design) yields the best results.Although it is an attractive and cost-effective approach to hazard/risk management, inherent safety has not been used as widely as other techniques such as HAZOP and quantitative risk assessment. There are many reasons responsible for this; key among them are a lack of awareness and the non-availability of a systematic methodology and tools.The inherent safety approach is the best option for hazard/risk management in offshore oil and gas activities. In the past, it has been applied to several aspects of offshore process design and operation. However, its use is still limited. This article attempts to present a complete picture of inherent safety application in offshore oil and gas activities. It discuses the use of available technology for implementation of inherent safety principles in various offshore activities, both current and planned for the future.     

Dynamic approach to risk management: Application to the Hoeganaes metal dust accidents

Several major accidents caused by metal dusts were recorded in the past few years. For instance, in 2011, three accidents caused by iron dust killed five workers at the Hoeganaes Corp. facility in Gallatin, Tennessee (USA). In order to prevent such accidents, a dynamic approach to risk management was defined in this study. The method is able to take into account new risk notions and early warnings and to systematically update the related risk. It may be applied not only in the design phase of a system, but also throughout the system lifetime as a support to a more precise and robust decision making process. The synergy of two specific techniques for hazard identification and risk assessment was obtained: the Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) and the Dynamic Risk Assessment (DRA) methods. To demonstrate its effectiveness, this approach was applied to the analysis of Gallatin metal dust accidents. The application allowed collecting a number of risk notions related to the plant, equipment and materials used. The analysis of risk notions by means of this dynamic approach could have led to enhanced hazard identification and dynamic real-time risk assessment. However, the approach described is effective only if associated to a proper safety culture, in order to produce an appropriate and robust decision making response to emerging risk issues.     

Qualitative Assessment for Inherently Safer Design (QAISD) at preliminary design stage

Conventional hazard evaluation techniques such as what-if checklist and hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies are often used to recognise potential hazards and recommend possible solutions. They are used to reduce any potential incidents in the process plant to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) level. Nevertheless, the suggested risk reduction alternatives merely focus on added passive and active safety systems rather than preventing or minimising the inherent hazards at source through application of inherently safer design (ISD) concept. One of the attributed reasons could be the shortage of techniques or tools to support implementation of the concept. Thus, this paper proposes a qualitative methodology that integrates ISD concept with hazard review technique to identify inherent hazards and generate ISD options at early stage of design as proactive measures to produce inherently safer plant. A modified theory of inventive problem solving (TRIZ) hazard review method is used in this work to identify inherent hazards, whereby an extended inherent safety heuristics tool is developed based on established ISD principles to create potential ISD options. The developed method namely Qualitative Assessment for Inherently Safer Design (QAISD) could be applied during preliminary design stage and the information required to apply the method would be based on common process and safety database of the studied process. However, user experiences and understanding of inherent safety concept are crucial for effective utilisation of the QAISD. This qualitative methodology is applied to a typical batch reactor of toluene nitration as a case study. The results show several ISD strategies that could be considered at early stage of design in order to prevent and minimise the potential of thermal runaway in the nitration process.     

A formulation to optimize the risk reduction process based on LOPA

This paper presents a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model to improve the computational use of the layer of protection analysis (LOPA). For a given set of independent protection layers to be implemented in a process, the proposed optimization model is solved to: a) Include costs associated with the different prevention, protection and mitigation devices, and b) Satisfy the risk level typically specified in the LOPA analysis through the occurrence probability. The underline purpose focuses on improving the analysis process and decision making to obtain the optimal solution in the safeguards selection that satisfies the requirements to be considered as IPL’s. The optimization is based on economic and risk tolerance criteria. As a first stage of this proposal, the safety instrumented system (SIS) design is optimized so that the selection of SIS components minimizes the risk and satisfies the safety integrity level (SIL) requirements. A case study is presented to validate the whole proposed approach.     

Risk assessment of antagonistic hazards

This paper considers the risk to major hazard plant from terrorists deliberately causing catastrophic industrial accidents. The United States of America Department of Justice [Assessment of the increased risk of terrorist or other criminal activity associated with posting off-site consequence analysis information on the internet, 2000] reports that “breaching a containment vessel of an industrial facility with an explosive or otherwise causing a chemical release may appear relatively simple to…a terrorist”. They concluded that the risk of such action is “real and credible”.

Analysis of terrorism is often hampered by its being described as ‘irrational’; one corollary would be that it is unpredictable. However, terrorism may usefully be treated as a rational behaviour and in doing so it becomes possible to assess the risks it causes.

We analyse the vulnerability of major hazard plant to terrorist attack and identify nine factors (access, security, visibility, opacity, secondary hazard, robustness, law enforcement response, victim profile, and political value) that might be used as a starting point for more formal risk assessment and management.     

基于三角模糊数的HAZOP分析在石油化工装置中的应用

工艺危害分析强调运用系统的方法对危害进行辨识、分析,并采取必要的措施消除和减少危害。HAZOP分析能对工艺过程非常系统、全面的进行分析,但传统的HAZOP分析在量化风险时,对于偏差原因发生的可能性评价存在较大的主观性。本文对于没有统计资料的HAZOP分析偏差原因发生可能性,采用专家打分法,利用三角模糊数来表示其模糊发生概率。对于有统计资料的偏差原因,直接表示成三角模糊数。这种方法能够很好的表示HAZOP分析偏差发生概率。介绍了基于三角模糊数的HAZOP分析步骤,并在石油化工装置中进行了应用。这对HAZOP分析技术在石油化工装置中的推广具有重要意义。     

A preliminary explore to the forced ventilation on the toxic gas release/dispersion and the hazard mitigation within a petrochemical plant

More than thirty-five years ago, the Bhopal disaster shook the whole world and investigators found out that many people survived just because they turned on the fans in their bedrooms. It was postulated that the forced ventilation played an important role in diluting the toxic gas and saved these people. In order to provide evidence to solve this old mystery, this research employed FLACS software to assess the hazardous degree of a toxic gas (hydrogen sulfide) leakage within a petrochemical process. Series of gas dispersion simulations were performed to actualize the hazardous characteristics and the corresponding risks of the release accident. The study shows that the hazardous level and the hazard range can be greatly influenced when parameters, such as the gas leakage circumstances (atmospheric conditions and wind speed) and the mitigation measures (direction of fans and their speed) are altered.By using explosion-proof fans in different positions and ventilation directions, combined with the natural wind in a certain direction, this research attempts to detect the best combination from various mitigation designs and to compare the influence of fan directions on hazard mitigation. It is also the first time of its kind to simulate the effect of forced ventilation on hazard mitigation within a process plant. The results show that the hazardous level of a toxic release can be effectively alleviated, when the direction of the mechanical ventilation is against the natural wind direction. With the help of the CFD simulation and the quantitative risk analysis technique, different loss prevention strategies can be tested via this method in order to establish a safer working environment.     

Safety study of an LNG regasification plant using an FMECA and HAZOP integrated methodology

A safety analysis was performed to determine possible accidental events in the storage system used in the liquefied natural gas regasification plant using the integrated application of failure modes, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and hazard and operability analysis (HAZOP) methodologies. The goal of the FMECA technique is the estimation of component failure modes and their major effects, whereas HAZOP is a structured and systematic technique that provides an identification of the hazards and the operability problems using logical sequences of cause-deviation-consequence of process parameters. The proposed FMECA and HAZOP integrated analysis (FHIA) has been designed as a tool for the development of specific criteria for reliability and risk data organisation and to gain more recommendations than those typically provided by the application of a single methodology. This approach has been applied to the risk analysis of the LNG storage systems under construction in Porto Empedocle, Italy. The results showed that FHIA is a useful technique to better and more consistently identify the potential sources of human errors, causal factors in faults, multiple or common cause failures and correlation of cause-consequence of hazards during the various steps of the process.     

Cost-based fire risk assessment in natural gas industry by means of fuzzy FTA and ETA

Fire is the most prevalent accident in natural gas facilities. In order to assess the risk of fire in a gas processing plant, a fault tree analysis (FTA) and event tree analysis (ETA) has been developed in this paper. By utilizing FTA and ETA, the paths leading to an outcome event would be visually demonstrated. The framework was applied to a case study of processing plant in South Pars gas complex. All major underlying causes of fire accident in a gas processing facility determined through a process hazard analysis (PHA). Fuzzy logic has been employed to derive likelihood of basic events in FTA from uncertain opinion of experts. The outcome events in event tree has been simulated by computer model to evaluate their severity. In the proposed methodology the calculated risk has the unit of cost per year which allows the decision makers to discern the benefit of their investment in safety measures and risk mitigation.