Development of generic bow-tie diagrams of accidental scenarios triggered by flooding of industrial facilities (Natech)

Interactions between natural events and industrial installations may lead to dangerous phenomena. According to bibliographical research, the industrial sector is often unprepared for these joint natural and technological or Natech events mainly because of the lack of guidelines on how to apply Natech regulations and the lack of information on the dynamics of Natechs. In order to fill the gaps and provide guidance on Natech risk assessment to operators, a systematic risk analysis methodology was developed and resulted firstly in proposing general reference bow-ties that reconfigure accidental scenarios triggered by flood events. The validation of these scenarios was made in the surface treatment sector. Building on these bow-ties, the risk analysis methodology will be completed and a checklist simple to use, along with a list proposing preventive and protective measures, to be used by operators in order to decrease the vulnerability of their industrial facilities to technological accidents triggered by floods will be developed in future work.     

Understanding the patterns and characteristics of Natech events in China

With the frequent occurrence of natural disasters, natural hazard triggered technological accident (Natech) risk has attracted extensive attention from academia and industry. Natech events have the characteristics of various inducements and consequences, cascading chain reactions, and complex spatial interleaving, which leads to serious consequences. The Natech event is constantly threatening China's industrial safety production. However, the systematic analysis of Natech events in China is still lacking. The study counted 288 cases in the past 20 years and constructed Natech databases. Based on the theory of risk chain and risk system, a systematic horizontal and vertical analysis was developed for the first time. It aims to understand the characteristics of Natech events in terms of temporal and spatial, hazard factors, industry and risk material, consequences and hazard. In the results, Natech events showed a fluctuating trend. The southwest region (28.13%) and the middle Yellow River region (21.18%) belong to the critical control areas. China's industries were seriously affected by the disasters of meteorological (43.75%) and secondary, especially in the Chemical & Petrochemical and manufacturing. 64.58% of Natech events caused environmental pollution, and 13.19% of Natech events caused major or above consequences. Oil (31.25%) and hazardous chemicals (28.47%) were the main substances causing pollution, fire and explosion, which need to be controlled. The research preliminarily clarifies the risk chain and characteristics of Natech events, which provided the basis for Natech risk assessment.     

Resilience assessment of chemical industrial areas during Natech-related cascading multi-hazards

In chemical industrial areas, technological accidents triggered by natural events (Natech events) may escalate. Complex cascading multi-hazard scenarios with high uncertainties may be caused. Resilience is an essential property of a system to withstand and recover from disruptive events. The present study focuses on the change of the resilience level due to (possible) interactions between cascading hazards, chemical installations and safety barriers during the dynamic evolution of fire escalations triggered by a natural hazard (certain cascading multi-hazard scenarios). A quantitative resilience assessment method is developed to this end. The state transition of a system facing accidents in the context of resilience is explored. Moreover, the uncertainties accompanying an accident evolution are quantified using a Dynamic Bayesian Network, allowing a detailed analysis of the system performance in different time steps. System resilience is measured as a time-dependent function with respect to the change of system performance. The applicability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by a case study, and the effects of different configurations of safety barriers on improving resilience are discussed. The results are valuable to support disaster prevention within chemical industrial areas.     

RAPID-N: Rapid natech risk assessment and mapping framework

Natech accidents at industrial plants are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences. For the mitigation of natech risk, authorities need to identify natech prone areas in a systematic manner. In order to facilitate probabilistic natech risk mapping, a unified methodology was developed that is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters, determination of damage probabilities of plant units, and assessment of probability and severity of possibly triggered natech events. The methodology was implemented as an on-line, extensible risk assessment and mapping software framework called RAPID-N, which allows rapid local and regional natech risk assessment and mapping with minimal data input. RAPID-N features an innovative data estimation framework to complete missing input data, such as on-site natural hazard parameters and plant unit characteristics. The framework is also used for damage assessment and natech consequence analysis, and allows easy modification of input parameters, dynamic generation of consequence models according to data availability, and extension of models by adding new equations or substituting existing ones with alternatives. Results are presented as summary reports and interactive risk maps, which can be used for land-use and emergency planning purposes by using scenario hazards, or for rapid natech consequence assessment following actual disasters. As proof of concept, the framework provides a custom implementation of the U.S. EPA's RMP Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology to perform natech consequence analysis and includes comprehensive data for earthquakes. It is readily extendible to other natural hazards and more comprehensive risk assessment methods.     

Methodology for Natech coupling risk assessment using correlative multi-criteria decision-making method

When a natural disaster occurs, it may damage multiple industrial facilities in a certain area at the same time, and the resulting Natech events may have an impact on the surrounding industrial facilities, generating coupling risk. In this study, the assessment of Natech events coupling risk is conducted using the method of correlated multi-criteria decision-making, and the knowledge of fuzzy measures is introduced to solve the uncertainty problem in Natech coupling risk. Natech Coupling Risk Index is constructed to involve physical and functional facilities. The concept of equivalent population is proposed to compare the risks generated by physical facilities and functional facilities. And economic indicators are added to calculate the comprehensive risk value. The purpose of this contribution is to enable local government managers to use their expertise and resources and the existing risk assessment of the plants themselves and rely on the scoring of experts limitedly to quickly and easily identify potential high Natech risk areas. In the calculation process of coupling risk, the government can also take the lead to promote information communication between different plants and other industrial subjects. The proposed method was applied in a realistic chemical industry area in Guangzhou, China and in a hypothetical town. The result shows that the physical risk may be transferred to the population and economy through the coupling between industrial facilities and the functional link between functional facilities and population and economy.     

Scenario deduction of Natech accident based on dynamic Bayesian network: A case study of landslide accident in a liquor storage tank area in Guizhou Province,China

Industrial technical accidents caused by natural disasters are defined as Natech accidents, such as earthquakes and landslides, which can cause tremendous damage to industrial storage tanks, and lead to accidental leakage and even serious fire and explosion accidents. In this study, a landslide-induced storage tank accident model under earthquake disasters was proposed, and the relationship between landslide mass impact and target impact resistance was taken into account. Also, tank failure and the formation of the pool fire were considered to be the consequences of the Natech accident. Through scenario deduction, the dynamic process of landslide Natech was transformed qualitatively into a disaster chain network diagram composed of a scenario state, a disaster-causing factor and emergency management. The Bayesian network was used to learn and deduce the parameters of the network diagram, and in this process, the prior probability and conditional probability of nodes were obtained primarily by Monte Carlo simulation, and by an improved expert scoring method based on the fuzzy set theory. Through visualization software, the sensitivity analysis of landslide Natech was achieved. Finally, a case study of a liquor storage tank area in Guizhou Province, China was carried out, and the results show that a large amount of hazardous material leakage caused by buckling is key to the formation of pool fire accidents, and several prevention measures for earthquake-induced landslide Natech was proposed according to the sensitivity analysis.     

Natech guide words: A new approach to assess and manage natech risk to ensure business continuity

The risk posed by natural hazards to the technological systems is known as Natech risk. It is different from the more widely known and studied risk posed by such sites to the environment and society. Though currently, available risk assessment techniques recognize Natech, the specific qualitative technique for Natech risk assessment and reduction has not yet been developed. After analyzing past data of Natech accidents, relevant guide words have been suggested in this study. These guide words will help anticipate Natech risk and visualize the Natech scenario. Once the Natech risk is identified, corresponding risk reduction measures can be taken to avoid possible Natech accidents and consequences.     

Quantitative risk assessment of domino effect in Natech scenarios triggered by lightning

Lightning strike is the natural event more frequency causing Natech accidents involving atmospheric storage tanks. Despite the resulting fires have usually limited severity and only local effects, domino effect may cause the escalation of these primary events, possibly affecting nearby pressurized storages and process equipment, thus resulting in relevant increase in the potential area impacted. A methodology was developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effects caused by Natech accidents triggered by lightning. A comprehensive procedure was obtained, tailoring lightning risk assessment to include probabilistic models for domino escalation based on probit approach and combinatorial analysis. The methodology was applied to a case-study to evidence the shift in risk figures due to domino effect and the credibility of the secondary domino scenarios. The results of the case-study show that an increase up to two orders of magnitude with respect to risk calculated for conventional scenarios is possible when considering lightning-induced Natech primary scenarios and their escalation.     

基于事故案例的Natech事件演化模式及风险分析*

为探究非巨灾型Natech事件演化模式并降低发生风险,基于164个事故案例,归纳出6种典型演化路径,构建非巨灾型Natech事件演化模式分析框架,并基于突发事件关联网络,分析影响Natech事件风险的水平关键节点及潜在发生路径。结果表明:暴雨灾害是对全局影响力最强的节点,与人为异动的协同作用最显著;电力事故Natech链路径较长;水污染事故是较容易被自然灾害或首发事故触发的事件。     

Qualitative risk assessment of a Dual Fuel (LNG-Diesel) system for heavy-duty trucks

A Dual Fuel (LNG-Diesel) system can be applied to heavy-duty diesel trucks for achieving environmental benefits in comparison to existing diesel vehicles. Because of lack of reports about risk assessment of this technology, we performed a qualitative assessment based on a framework of some literature techniques for risk identification, analysis and evaluation. After constructing a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) to establish the context, we conducted bow-tie analysis, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), likelihood and consequence analysis, and used a risk matrix. We applied these methods and techniques qualitatively to identify causes (e.g. collisions), critical events (e.g. releases of natural gas), related consequences (e.g. fires and explosions), and different possible pathways from a specific cause to its consequence, and to assess some negative accident scenarios related to use and parking of the vehicle. The bow-tie analysis also allowed to make explicit barriers and controls that prevent critical events and/or mitigate consequences. Therefore, we identified a set of safety measures, including design, technical, management, and emergency actions, which shall be implemented in each step of the system's life cycle.Our risk assessment showed that the risk level of the Dual Fuel (LNG-Diesel) system is similar to the risk level of a traditional diesel system. Future research will overcome current lack of data and, therefore, permit a quantitative rating of the risk of the Dual Fuel (LNG-Diesel) system.     

中小学校安全风险管理系统的提出与应用

为了提升校园的安全程度完善其管理系统,本文在阅读相关文献的基础上,结合校园应急管理以及风险辨识和评估在校园安全中的重要性,将工业安全管理技术应用于校园安全管理中,提出中小学安全风险管理系统,该系统的实施和应用,可以在一定程度上减少校园安全事故的发生,对校园的安全管理,具有实际应用价值和重要的现实意义。     

Research on three-dimensional visualization system of Natech events triggered domino accidents in oil-gas depots

Natech events and domino accidents happen worldwide and usually lead to severe consequences, especially in hazardous areas such as Oil-Gas depots. With the continuous development of the Oil-Gas industry and information technology, it is essential to realize the three-dimensional management and monitoring of hazardous substances. To evaluate the consequences caused by Natech events triggered domino accidents (accident chain), a matrix loop method was proposed to calculate the probability and evolution path of the accident chain. The actual layout and the real-time data of the Oil-Gas depot are input into the evaluation method in matrices, thus making the results reliable and updated. Besides, a B/S architecture system is developed to present the evaluation consequences of the proposed method. The three-dimensional visualization effects of natural disasters, technological accidents and the dynamic propagation process of the accident chain are also realized in the system to enhance the user's experience. A system application regarding lightning-triggered domino accidents was carried out to demonstrate the feasibility and rapidity of the proposed evaluation method and perform the system's operation process and visualization effects. The application results show that the system can provide effective decision-making assistance to safety management workers before the accident and guidance for emergency rescue operations during the accident.     

我国天然气风险及评价方法分析

为有效促进天然气行业朝着更加安全的方向发展,对天然气风险及其相关的风险评价方法进行深入分析,总结出我国天然气开采、运输及使用过程中的输送管道风险、液化天然气风险、输气站场风险、勘探开发风险、钻井工程风险和地下储气库风险,并归纳出这六大类风险相对应的风险评价研究内容、产生风险的原因、风险评价方法等。可以看出,我国天然气的风险评价主要集中在管道风险评价方面,且缺乏系统、详细的统计资料,因此,急需建立相应的数据库,采用多种评价方法相结合,开发天然气风险评价软件和探寻有效的应急救援措施,以利于我国天然气风险管理。     

Explosion at an aluminum factory caused by the July 2018 Japan floods: Investigation of damages and evacuation activities

An explosion at an aluminum factory occurred due to floods in Soja City, Okayama Prefecture, in July 2018. This study investigates the accident, its overall impact on local residents, and emergency management activities. The results of the study showed that several nearby structures and homes were damaged by the explosion. Concern for more explosions has led to the evacuation of residents of Shimobara area of Soja City. In Shimobara, residents had carried out voluntary disaster prevention activities before the disaster. After the explosion, Shimobara residents were able to evacuate safely in cooperation with the voluntary disaster prevention organization and the local government agency. The study revealed that there was a lack of information on chemical accident hazards shared by the factory with local government authorities and first responders, as well as with local residents. In order to be better prepared for technological accidents, and in particular accidents caused by natural disasters (known as Natechs), mechanisms for information sharing between companies and municipalities should be adopted.     

建立我国工业事故风险管理制度的探讨

简要论述工业事故风险管理的要素和风险评价方法，提出建立适合我国市场经济体制的工业事故风险管理制度，制定适合各行业特点的事故风险标准值和风险分析评价方法，将风险管理与工伤保险和事故预防有机地结合起来等建议。     

Disaster management plan for chemical process industries. Case study: investigation of release of chlorine to atmosphere

The first step in preparing a disaster management plan for any chemical process industry (CPI) is to identify and mitigate the conditions that might cause them. In practice, such a plan should start early in the design phase of the chemical facility, and continue throughout its life. The objective is to prevent emergencies by eliminating hazards wherever possible. In-spite of the advances made in knowledge and technology, failure-free design and devices have remained elusive. Even the well designed and inherently safe chemical facility must prepare to control potentially hazardous events that are caused by human or mechanical failure, or by natural forces such as floods or earthquakes. The need for effective technological disaster management programs by chemical facilities and their neighbouring communities became painfully clear in the 1980s, a decade marred by tragic events linked to the manufacture and distribution of chemical products. Unfortunately, several events during this decade, though not on a scale to match the previous one, have nevertheless cast a heavy burden and responsibility on the management. The chemical industry has vigorously responded to these problems in a wide variety of ways. The CPI took actions to improve the reliability of their operations, drew up emergency plans in consultation with the neighbourhood and the regulating authorities and practise emergency exercises regularly to alleviate public fear. Manali Industries in Chennai (Madras) is an exemplary model in India.     

基于NVivo与集对分析的自然资源领域安全生产风险研究

为系统地梳理并分析自然资源领域安全生产风险,通过文献阅读、现场调研、专家座谈等方法收集自然资源领域内安全生产管理资料,构建包含土地、矿产、海洋、测绘、地勘5大领域的风险评判指标模型,使用集对分析法对模型的可靠性进行检验,采用NVivo质性分析方法对风险评判指标模型进行重要度分析。结果表明:所构建的风险评判指标模型较为可靠;5个领域下各指标编码频率按照由高到低将指标危险度划分为高度危险、比较危险、一般危险和轻微危险4个等级,其中不按批准用途用地(54)和园区间安全距离不足(51)、越界开采(51)、改变海域使用用途(48)、野外作业(24)、钻探作业施工(27)分别为5个领域内高度危险的指标;基于重要度分析从自然资源管理部门角度提出事故预防对策措施。     

Seismic risk assessment of liquid overtopping in a steel storage tank equipped with a single deck floating roof

Major earthquakes have demonstrated that Natech events can be triggered by liquid overtopping in liquid storage tanks equipped with floating roofs. Thus, research on the dynamic behaviour of steel storage tanks with floating roofs is still required. In this paper, the seismic risk against liquid overtopping in a real steel storage tank with a floating roof was analysed using a simplified model that was validated by a refined finite element model based on the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian approach. The simplified model utilizes the Lagrangian of a floating roof-fluid system and is capable of providing a response history of the floating roof. It was demonstrated that it could predict the maximum vertical displacement very accurately, while some differences were observed in the response history of vertical displacement. The computational time for a single response history analysis based on the simplified model amounted to a few minutes, which is significantly less demanding compared to hours required for response history analysis in the case of the refined FE model. The simplified model is thus appropriate for the seismic fragility analysis considering the overtopping limit state. It is shown that the fragility curves are significantly affected by the liquid filling level. The risk for liquid overtopping is quite high in the case of a full tank. However, by considering the variation of filling level during the year, the overtopping risk was observed reduced by approximately 30%. Alternatively, the approximate fragility analysis for the liquid overtopping can be performed by utilizing the Eurocode formula for the vertical displacement of liquid. This approach is straightforward, but the formula does not account for the higher mode effects, which may result in overestimated seismic intensity causing overtopping, as discussed in the paper.     

欧盟城市饮用水供应链风险管理与评价及其借鉴

结合欧盟2006年起开展的TECHNEAU(Technology Enabled Universal Access to Safe Water)项目,介绍了欧盟城市"从水源到用户的饮用水供应链"风险管理机制,以及"风险识别、评估、减缓和控制"综合风险评价框架;并从水源地、水处理系统、配水系统、历史风险事件、风险评价方法、评价结果6方面比较了捷克、德国、荷兰、挪威、瑞典5个国家典型城市风险评价实践,着重分析了瑞典哥特堡市风险评价中采用的综合概率故障树法和客户损失时间指数方法及其应用价值。总结了欧盟饮用水供应链的风险管理在全过程管理策略、"关口前移"管理方针、多样性的风险评价方法与技术、参与主体多元化、评价结果公开透明5个方面的成功做法和经验,可供国内参考。     

工业企业动态安全风险评估模型在某炼钢厂安全风险管控中的应用

通过研究工业企业动态安全风险评估模型在某炼钢厂安全风险管控中的应用,探索该安全风险评估模型作为企业安全风险评估方法的可行性,为企业进行安全风险辨识、评级和分级管控选取风险评估方法提供参考。