A reliability evaluation method based on the weakest failure modes for side-by-side offloading mooring system of FPSO

Offshore structures are complex systems, and numerous failure modes must be taken into consideration when reliability analysis in different loads and environment conditions are conducted on them. It is difficult to obtain structural system reliability with respect to complicated systems with numerous failure modes and dependency consideration among them. This paper applies the combination of the weakest failure modes theory with structural reliability theory to conduct reliability analysis on of side-by-side offloading mooring system of FPSO. Firstly, the numerical simulation of the system in different conditions is addressed to acquire the statistical data of time-history stress of components including hawsers, fenders and yoke, based on which, the reliability indexes of all the failure modes and correlation coefficient matrix are derived. Then the weakest failure modes, i.e. the representative failure modes that have significant impact on the system, are located through Probability Network Evaluation Technique. The probability of structural system is estimated through the weakest failure modes by considering the system as series. The analysis results indicate that two environment conditions (0°&0°&0° and 0°&30°&45° in combinations of wave, wind and current) are relative dangerous, which is in good correspondence with the practical expertise. The method is verified to be an effective and convenient evaluation approach for structural reliability analysis in terms of complex systems. It is beneficial for the identification of structure indicators from the weakest failure mode group and conduct optimum of structural system configurations in the design stage.     

基于VP-MFC的采煤机摇臂系统齿轮性能退化可靠性分析

齿轮作为采煤机摇臂系统的关键零件,其性能退化对采煤机的工作可靠性有着重要影响。建立了采煤机摇臂系统的刚柔耦合虚拟样机（VP）模型,基于仿真结果,计算得到温度载荷,应用ANSYS对摇臂系统的薄弱齿轮副进行多场耦合（MFC）分析,得到了齿轮的温度场及结构场云图。建立引入裂纹后的齿轮有限元模型,利用FRANC3D对其进行断裂裂纹扩展数值模拟,得到了齿轮的裂纹前缘应力强度因子、扩展轨迹与疲劳寿命。提出以齿轮的裂纹扩展疲劳寿命和可靠度为退化指标的定量评估方法,结果表明齿轮性能退化成指数分布。将虚拟样机、多场耦合与断裂力学相结合,为齿轮性能退化可靠性研究提供了新的方法。     

基于强度理论及虚拟仿真相结合的行星减速机构可靠性分析

基于破煤理论建立了采煤机的力学模型,采用ADAMS建立采煤机刚柔耦合模型,并解决了边界条件添加、接触法向力提取等技术问题,分析了行星轴、架的可靠性;基于行星减速机构强度校核基本原理,开发了行星齿轮强度校核软件,以虚拟仿真中的动态接触法向力为输入,对某公司两种行星减速机构设计方案中各齿轮的接触应力和弯曲应力进行研究。该方法解决了传统分析中齿轮受力无法确定以及采用有限元软件无法求解齿根弯曲应力、求解接触应力时间过长的不足。结果表明:二级行星减速机构采用4行星轮结构要优于采用3行星轮方案,传动更稳定、可靠。     

基于强度理论及虚拟仿真相结合的行星减速机构可靠性分析

基于破煤理论建立了采煤机的力学模型,采用ADAMS建立采煤机刚柔耦合模型,并解决了边界条件添加、接触法向力提取等技术问题,分析了行星轴、架的可靠性;基于行星减速机构强度校核基本原理,开发了行星齿轮强度校核软件,以虚拟仿真中的动态接触法向力为输入,对某公司两种行星减速机构设计方案中各齿轮的接触应力和弯曲应力进行研究。该方法解决了传统分析中齿轮受力无法确定以及采用有限元软件无法求解齿根弯曲应力、求解接触应力时间过长的不足。结果表明:二级行星减速机构采用4行星轮结构要优于采用3行星轮方案,传动更稳定、可靠。     

在役悬索管道抗风性能研究及结构退化分析*

为提高在役成品油悬索跨越管道结构及性能的可靠性,保障长输油气管道生产运营的安全,建立某在役成品油悬索跨越管道的有限元力学仿真模型,研究风载荷对悬索跨越管道的影响作用,探讨主索、吊索等主要构件性能退化时对悬索管道安全性的影响规律。结果表明:通过有限元模拟可以得到管道失效风速为60 m/s,远大于极限风速,且涡激振动振幅很小;主索腐蚀、吊索断裂以及是否存在抗风索这3种情况均能影响结构的安全性。相关企业应当对结构的重要构件进行定期检修,以保障生产运营安全。     

台风下乙烯精馏塔抗风性能及可靠性分析

采用流固耦合方法对台风下乙烯精馏塔的风载荷分布及风振响应进行数值模拟,建立了台风下塔设备流固耦合数值模型,对乙烯精馏塔的抗风能力和可靠性进行了分析。研究发现乙烯精馏塔的迎风面为风压力,背风面和迎风子午线两侧为风吸力,风压力和风吸力沿着塔高不断增大。在风载荷作用下,乙烯精馏塔的最大应力出现在迎风向塔体与裙座的连接处,最大变形出现在塔顶。随着风速增大,最大应力和变形呈三次多项式的变化关系,但频率基本保持不变,呈现一阶频率振动。通过强度、挠度和疲劳分析,可对不同台风强度下的乙烯精馏塔可靠性进行校核。     

影响大型复杂机械钢结构系统可靠性的因素分析

以结构力学为理论依据,以有限单元法为基础,借助和参考有关有限元程序设计方法,按照结构系统可靠性失效模式分析的要求,采用编程语言研制成功基于有限元的可靠性分析软件RAPS(Reliability Analysis Program of Structure based on FEM),运用该软件对立体车库钢结构的可靠性进行具体的分析;对判定结构系统失效与否的失效准则进行讨论和分析,并针对立体车库钢结构,得出合理的失效准则和系统可靠度的计算方法;通过实例说明约界参数CAP、失效路径长度和系统复杂程度对失效准则和系统可靠度结果的影响。     

Uncertainty analysis framework for tubular connection sealability of underground gas storage wells

The seal failure of tubing and casing connections compromises underground gas storage well safety. This work proposes a systematic uncertainty analysis framework for connection sealability assessment. The framework covers reliability analysis and reliability sensitivity analysis and attempts to provide more effective support for the reliability design of connection seals. The reliability analysis introduces an adaptive Kriging with stopping criterion P-Monte Carlo simulation (AKP-MCS) method, which can provide a satisfactory estimate of failure probability with a small number of performance function evaluations. This metamodeling technology can effectively reduce the numerical efforts required for the reliability assessment of connection sealability. In the reliability sensitivity analysis, the refined metamodel obtained from the reliability analysis is coupled into a single-loop Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The classifier attribute of this metamodel can meet the requirement of the single-loop MCS method to classify the signs of sampling points. This attribute enables sample matrices to be evaluated on this metamodel instead of the performance function, making the reliability sensitivity assessment more feasible. The proposed method is first demonstrated with four academic examples with promising results. Next, an illustrative tubular connection case is provided. The proposed scheme gives estimates of the failure probability and reliability sensitivity close to the classical model but requires less computational cost. The results of the analysis can provide useful information for the scheme decision-making and reliability optimization of connection seal design.     

Reliability analysis of subsea blowout preventers with condition-based maintenance using stochastic Petri nets

Blowout Preventer (BOP) has maintained its function as a safety barrier and the last line of defence against oil and gas spills since its development in the early 1900s. However, as drilling and exploration activities move further offshore, challenges pertaining to reliable operation of the subsea BOP systems continue to be a source of concern for stakeholders in the industry. In spite of recent advancements in reliability analysis of safety instrumented systems (SISs), the research on reliability assessment of BOP is still lacking in some regards. There are gaps in the literature with respect to the incorporation of preventive maintenance (PM) strategies as well as dynamic operating conditions into BOP reliability analysis. To address these gaps, this paper develops an advanced analysis method using stochastic Petri nets (SPN) to estimate the reliability of subsea BOP systems subject to condition-based maintenance (CBM) with different failure modes. The BOP system is divided into five subsystems which are connected in series with each other and categorised into degrading and binary units. The performance of the BOP system in terms of availability, reliability and mean-time-between failures (MTBF) is obtained and analysed. A sensitivity analysis is also performed to evaluate the effect of fault coverage factor and redundancy design on system performance. The results show that both the fault coverage factor and redundancy have significant impact on the BOP's reliability, availability and MTBF.     

基于区间分析的履带起重机结构非概率可靠性研究

臂架结构作为履带起重机的重要部件,其结构的强度、刚度和稳定性决定了整个起重机的安全性和使用性能。为了预测履带起重机臂架结构的可靠度,采用区间非概率研究履带起重机的可靠性,只需知道不确定参量的界限而不需知道其分布情况,就能求出各功能函数的可靠性指标;将履带起重机臂架的额定起重量、起升载荷偏摆角度、起升冲击系数等不确定参量看成区间变量,建立了以臂架强度、刚度、整体稳定性为失效模式的可靠性分析模型;将区间变量标准化,在标准化区间变量的扩展空间中,按无穷范数度量从坐标原点到失效面的最短距离,以此来判断结构的非概率可靠度。最后,用该模型对现有某型号履带起重机臂架进行了可靠性分析,结果表明,用该方法得到的履带起重机区间非概率可靠度η1,符合实际情况。     

Voronoi尾流规避下的风电场布局安全性研究

为了降低尾流对风电场稳定输出和风力机发电性能的危害,在现存风电场风力机布置优化布局方法下,提出结合1种基于几何约束辅助的Voronoi图的全新优化方法,对现行的几种代表性的风电场布局进行二次迭代优化,并利用WAsP软件对优化前后的布局做对照数值仿真计算。研究结果表明:优化后的布局可有效规避尾流效应,提高风电系统的稳定输出性和安全供电,并提高风电能量利用率。本文以Voronoi几何生成特性为研究核心,在总结一般规律下,结合程序化计算思维、人工智能、计算机图形学算法等知识,深入探讨Voronoi风场布局计算模拟仿真的未来应用可行性,得出其提高精度的有效方法,同时为风电场布局理论和其他学科的交叉融合提供创新思路。     

充填管道系统失效模式与影响分析(FMEA)及失效影响模糊评估

根据金川矿区充填管道系统的运行情况,结合充填实践经验,建立了充填管道系统的失效模式与影响分析法(FMEA)分析表,得出系统存在10种失效模式。针对FMEA分析表中失效影响存在较大模糊性而难以有效估计的特点,引入模糊评估方法来进行分析。通过该矿区充填管道系统各失效模式产生失效影响的模糊评估,得到不同失效模式对系统可靠性影响的排序结果。结果表明:该方法的评估结果与实际情况比较吻合;可以使分析定量化,有助于工程人员充分利用系统模糊信息;该方法也能用于其他系统失效模式影响的模糊评估。     

荷载重分布对退化钢筋混凝土桥可靠性的影响

为了能依据体系可靠度的概念对桥梁进行优化设计 ,找到体系可靠度与失效构件数目及失效顺序的关系 ,笔者以某钢筋混凝土简支梁桥为例 ,将 5片T梁看作一个主梁体系 ,针对几种不同的主梁体系失效模式 ,采用“修正刚性横梁法”计算了当主梁体系中有一片或两片梁失效后剩余各主梁的荷载横向分布系数 ,讨论了荷载重分布对单片主梁和主梁体系可靠性的影响。结果表明 :失效梁离剩余梁越近 ,失效梁越多 ,剩余梁可靠性越低 ,而随着荷载重分布程度的加深 ,体系可靠度有所增加。     

基于疲劳累积破坏机制的储罐结构动力可靠度分析

针对随机风载荷作用下储罐结构动力可靠性问题,以300 m3的中小型立式低温储罐为研究对象,利用AR模型进行数值模拟得到风载荷的脉动风速时程与脉动功率谱密度函数。采用ANSYS建立储罐三维有限元模型,并对储罐进行动力学分析,计算出储罐结构的随机响应,进而求出随机风载荷作用下储罐结构动力可靠性所需全部数字特征,最后利用疲劳累积损伤机制计算得到储罐的动力可靠度。结果表明:假设结构强度不随时间退化,前5 a动力可靠度基本保持不变,随着使用年限的延长,动力可靠度下降速度明显增大。研究方法可为储罐的动力可靠性及寿命预测提供一定的理论依据。     

硫化罐齿块啮合强度校核及使用缺陷分析

针对硫化罐齿块在使用过程中出现裂纹等使用缺陷甚至导致失效的问题,采用有限元方法,对一台硫化罐的齿块啮合强度进行了校核和 应力分析,基于各个危险截面的应力水平计算结果对该设备快开门结构强度进行了评价。并结合该设备在定期检验过程中发现的缺陷形式,对 缺陷产生原因进行了分析,结果表明在满足啮合强度计算的条件下,该设备的齿块在非危险截面的齿块根部出现了疲劳裂纹,该缺陷的产生和 扩展与制造环节和设备使用过程中的疲劳有关。基于分析结果提出在役硫化罐定期检验的关键位置和检验周期,为该类容器的制造和定期检验 提供参考。     

An extension of Multiple Greek Letter method for common cause failures modelling

Common cause failure describes a condition where several components share the same source of failure that causes them to fail or become unavailable simultaneously. The objective of this paper is to present an improved approach to common cause failure modelling within reliability analyses. The currently used methods allow one component to share common characteristics with only one group of components, which may be affected by the same source of failure. Therefore, an improved method was developed, where components can be assigned to several groups of components that are susceptible to faulty operation with respect to their similar characteristics. A mathematical derivation of the method is presented and the theory is applied to smaller theoretical samples and to a simplified real example. The results show that the new method enables a more detailed reliability analysis. The results prove that consideration of common cause failures using the improved method may decrease the system reliability compared to traditional common cause failure consideration. The system reliability decreases more, if the redundant components have more similarities and are therefore assigned to several common cause failure groups.     

水下连接器试压帽结构动态仿真及密封性分析

为解决水下连接器现有力学模型过于简化，预紧力加载不够合理，密封性能分析结果不够准确的问题，基于ABAQUS有限元模拟提出了新的动态接触分析方法，针对水下连接器试压帽双头螺柱结构，探究了安装和试压工况中该结构形式的密封特性及其与等效拧紧力矩的非线性关联。研究结果表明:在塑性失效设计准则范围内，2种工况下密封环的Mises值最大为399.4 MPa；安装工况下，随预紧力的增加，密封环上、下锥面最大接触应力先增大后略微减小；1 145 Nm螺栓拧紧力矩可完成安装工况，并能在试压工况中保证各部件不被弹开；试压工况下，随试验内压的增加，密封环上锥面最大应力缓慢增加，下锥面最大接触应力几乎不变，最终2值近似相等约为850 MPa，密封宽度合理。     

可控震源振动器系统不确定性分析

为了解决可控震源施工过程中振动器系统的安全性问题,采用故障树法建立仿真 模型。通过失效分析得出各故障单元的失效模式及单元间分布规律,计算出振动器系统 的可靠度。开展对该系统敏感性的不确定性分析,得出影响振动器系统可靠性的关键因 素为重锤上部密封失效。采用有限元法对其应力场进行模拟仿真。结果表明:随着工作 频率的升高,O形圈应力波动越大,密封越容易失效。Von Mises应力随压缩率的增大先 减小后增大,随槽口半径的增大而增大;接触应力在一定范围内随压缩率及槽口半径的 增大而增大。为振动器的结构优化与可靠性设计提供理论依据,并为油气资源勘探开发 的安全作业提供工程应用指导。     

第三方挖掘作用下PE燃气管道失效行为研究

针对挖掘破坏导致的城镇燃气管道失效,开展了挖掘作用下管道力学失效机理分析。考虑管土接触作用,建立了城镇燃气PE管道在挖掘齿作用下的三维力学响应分析模型,分析了典型工况下管道的失效过程,讨论了基于应力准则与基于应变准则等2种失效准则的适用性,并开展了影响因素分析。结果表明:机械齿作用下管道主要失效位置为机械齿与管道接触位置两端;采用基于应变的失效准则可以更好地利用PE管材的塑性性能;机械齿的作用位置对管道力学响应影响较小;管径和壁厚的增大能减小管道内的应力,同时能够减小管道的截面椭圆度;内压的改变对管道的力学响应几乎没有影响。以上结果可为城镇燃气管道的力学失效分析与安全评价提供一定的参考。     

Development of a risk-based maintenance strategy using FMEA for a continuous catalytic reforming plant

Petrochemical facilities and plants require essential ongoing maintenance to ensure high levels of reliability and safety. A risk-based maintenance (RBM) strategy is a useful tool to design a cost-effective maintenance schedule; its objective is to reduce overall risk in the operating facility. In risk assessment of a failure scenario, consequences often have three key features: personnel safety effect, environmental threat and economic loss. In this paper, to quantify the severity of personnel injury and environmental pollution, a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) method is developed using subjective information derived from domain experts. On the basis of failure probability and consequence analysis, the risk is calculated and compared against the known acceptable risk criteria. To facilitate the comparison, a risk index is introduced, and weight factors are determined by an analytic hierarchy process. Finally, the appropriate maintenance tasks are scheduled under the risk constraints. A case study of a continuous catalytic reforming plant is used to illustrate the proposed approach. The results indicate that FMEA is helpful to identify critical facilities; the RBM strategy can increase the reliability of high-risk facilities, and corrective maintenance is the preferred approach for low-risk facilities to reduce maintenance expenditure.