Fuzzy fault tree analysis for fire and explosion of crude oil tanks

Crude oil tank fire and explosion (COTFE) is the most frequent type of accident in petroleum refineries, oil terminals or storage which often results in human fatality, environment pollution and economic loss. In this paper, with fault tree qualitative analysis technique, various potential causes of the COTFE are identified and a COTFE fault tree is constructed. Conventional fault tree quantitative analysis calculates the occurrence probability of the COTFE using exact probability data of the basic events. However, it is often very difficult to obtain corresponding precise data and information in advance due to insufficient data, changing environment or new components. Fuzzy set theory has been proven to be effective on such uncertain problems. Hence, this article investigates a hybrid approach of fuzzy set theory and fault tree analysis to quantify the COTFE fault tree in fuzzy environment and evaluate the COTFE occurrence probability. Further, importance analysis for the COTFE fault tree, including the Fussell–Vesely importance measure of basic events and the cut sets importance measure, is performed to help identifying the weak links of the crude oil tank system that will provide the most cost-effective mitigation. Also, a case study and analysis is provided to testify the proposed method.     

道氏火灾爆炸指数法在化工品码头危险性评价中的应用

简要介绍了道氏火灾爆炸指数法（第６ 版）的评价过程,并应用该方法对某化工品码头储运生产各工艺环节的火灾爆炸危险性进行了评价。     

Quantitative risk analysis of fire and explosion on the top-side LNG-liquefaction process of LNG-FPSO

Since the massive use and production of fuel oil and natural gas, the excavating locations of buried energy-carrying material are moving further away from onshore, eventually requiring floating production systems like floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO). Among those platforms, LNG-FPSO will play a leading role to satisfy the global demands for the natural gas in near future; the LNG-FPSO system is designed to deal with all the LNG processing activities, near the gas field. However, even a single disaster on an offshore plant would put the whole business into danger. In this research, the risk of fire and explosion in the LNG-FPSO is assessed by quantitative risk analysis, including frequency and consequence analyses, focusing on the LNG liquefaction process (DMR cycle). The consequence analysis is modeled by using a popular analysis tool PHAST. To assess the risk of this system, 5 release model scenarios are set for the LNG and refrigerant leakages from valves, selected as the most probable scenarios causing fire and explosion. From the results, it is found that the introduction of additional protection methods to reduce the effect of fire and explosion under ALARP criteria is not required, and two cases of the selection of independent protection layers are recommended to meet the SIL level of failure rate for safer design and operation in the offshore environment.     

火灾风险评价的随机过程模型

运用事故树分析法和随机过程的马尔克夫模型，建立了评价火灾风险的动态模型．运用该模型能够计算某一系统特定地点起火后风险机率的时间分布，并能够指导消防设计和消防管理。     

模糊概率事件的故障树分析

许多职业事故的基本致因事件多属于模糊事件,其概率很难确定。本文以煤矿典型危害——内因火灾为例,探讨了模糊概率下的故障树分析问题。煤矿内因火灾故障树虽具有确定的结构形式,其基本致因事件的概率却无法统计。经过长期的生产实践,煤矿中一大批防火专家可以用自然语言较准确地描述基本事件发生的可能性,这就为故障树分析提供了有效信息。文中以模糊数学为基础,引入Delphi方法,征集并整理了25位专家对龙凤矿内因火灾致因的意见,确定了基本事件的模糊概率及其临界重要度排序,提出了行之有效的防治内因火灾措施。     

易燃易爆氢氧车间生产、贮气柜系统危险性评价

通过某动力公司氢氧车间生产、贮存系统危险性因素分析,对氢氧车间氢气生产、贮存各工艺环节进行了火灾爆炸危险性评价,并针对氢氧车间生产工艺系统和湿式贮气柜的火灾爆炸事故隐患,提出了事故防范的安全对策.     

Fuzzy Application Procedure (FAP) for the risk assessment of occupational accidents

This paper concerns a procedure to quantify the risk of occupational accidents based on Fuzzy Logic approach, named Fuzzy Application Procedure (FAP). FAP was developed as a support tool, after the method based on fuzzy logic was developed and validated. The methodology and FAP support tool were found to be able to quantitatively assess the risk of occupational accidents for different industrial and site activities and to identify the most efficient intervention measures that can be taken to reduce risks. The application of FAP to two Italian industrial plant allowed the validation of the procedure. It can be seen how FAP should be considered easy to use for any type of company, with the only requirement of having a sufficient and homogeneous number of accidents recorded, so as to be able to correctly tune the reference parameters of the fuzzy methodology.     

Generic event trees and probabilities for the release of different types of hazardous materials

To simplify quantitative risk analysis, the initiating events leading to loss of containment are normally described using generic hypotheses. For example, the following hypothesis is applied to the loss of containment from a storage tank: instantaneous release of the complete inventory, continuous release of the complete inventory in 10 min, and continuous release from a hole with a diameter of 10 mm. Once the initiating events have been specified, the corresponding event trees must be drawn to establish the sequences from each initiating event to the diverse final outcomes or accident scenarios, which will depend on the properties of the released material or on other specific factors. In this paper we propose, in a systematic way, a set of short generic event trees for the main loss of containment scenarios involving different types of hazardous materials. Even though most of them have been taken from the literature (BEVI Reference Manual), we have modified some of them, added the corresponding intermediate probabilities (immediate ignition, delayed ignition, flame front acceleration, etc.) obtained from a literature review and expert judgment, and associated the use of each event tree to the hazardous properties of the material (flammability, volatility and toxicity) and to its category according to EC labeling directives.     

苯酐生产氧化反应器组火灾爆炸危险性分析与对策

为预防苯酐生产中最危险部位氧化反应器组发生火灾、爆炸事故,详细分析了苯酐生产中氧化反应器组各部位的火灾、爆炸危险性,在危险性分析基础上,提出了可行的安全对策与措施,对苯酐装置的安全生产和管理具有重要的指导意义和参考价值.     

聚丙烯车间12m3釜聚合岗危险分析及安全措施

聚合岗位是石油化工厂聚丙烯车间重要且非常危险的岗位,一坦发生意外事故,将会导致人员的重大伤亡和巨大的经济损失.笔者依据聚丙烯车间生产现状,详细地介绍了12?m3釜聚合岗位工艺流程,用\"系统安全\"的理论和方法对其主要物质、生产工艺、操作过程的危险性进行了辨识,且绘制了主要危险点分布图;通过危险源辨识可知,聚合釜具有的超温、超压特点是该岗位众多危险源中最为严重的潜在危险,应用\"事故树法\"对聚合釜超温、超压爆炸事故进行了危险分析,找出其爆炸潜在的危险因素有24种,该事故树的最小割集共有66个,表明聚合釜爆炸可能性是很大的.依据分析结果,针对聚合釜爆炸可能性最大的危险因素,提出了安全对策与措施,以避免或减少爆炸事故的发生.     

化学实验室火灾、爆炸原因分析及防火防爆措施

从化学实验室内使用的化学物品的易燃易爆性能,存在的各种火源入手,分析了化学实验室发生火灾爆炸事故的原因和爆炸事故的特点,在此基础上提出了防火防爆的具体措施。