风险管理在城市地铁工程中的应用初探

地铁工程作为一项大型工程项目,存在着大量的不确定性风险因素.这些不确定性风险因素加大了地铁施工技术的难度,严重地影响着地铁工程建设目标的实现.笔者从风险因素辨识、风险分析和评估、风险响应 3个方面详细分析了一般大型工程项目风险管理的研究现状;探讨了地铁工程风险的定义、风险管理的定义及其内涵;指出城市地铁建设进行风险评估和管理是非常必要的.     

Risk analysis in harbor environments using simulation

The paper proposes the development of an integrated interactive environment for risk analysis applied to harbor and maritime environments. This approach is very effective for properly designing the harbor and maritime infrastructure in terms of resources, structures and services for facing possible emergencies. The authors describe the general architecture of this tool and the integration with a specific simulation module devoted to an oil spill study and analysis, including experimental results and statistical validation.     

重大事故的应急救援预案编制技术

重大应急预案编制是安全生产的一项重要基础工作,对于提高应急救援能力,控制事故与灾害的恶化,保障人民安全具有重大意义.笔者从应急预案编制的技术层面上,论述了应急预案的基本框架和应急预案体系;认为该体系可以由6个一级和20个二级的核心要素构成.其中,应急策划是制定应急预案的技术基础,包括风险评价、资源分析和法律法规要求3个二级要素;应急准备包括机构与职责、应急设备设施与物质、应急人员培训、预案演练、公众教育和互助协议6个二级要素;应急响应是应急预案中核心的内容,包括现场指挥与控制等11个二级要素.所提出的应急救援预案文件体系,建议一般按照四级文件形式的设想,应急预案的目标是提高整体应急能力;建议把应急预案的具体编制过程划分为6个基本的步骤,对于预案编制与实施应实现持续改进的机制.     

Determination of human error probabilities for offshore platform musters

The focus of this work is on prediction of human error probabilities during the process of emergency musters on offshore oil and gas production platforms. Due to a lack of human error databases, and in particular human error data for offshore platform musters, an expert judgment technique, the Success Likelihood Index Methodology (SLIM), was adopted as a vehicle to predict human error probabilities. Three muster scenarios of varying severity (man overboard, gas release, and fire and explosion) were studied in detail. A panel of 24 judges active in the offshore oil and gas industry provided data for both the weighting and rating of six performance shaping factors. These data were subsequently processed by means of SLIM to calculate the probability of success for 18 muster actions ranging from point of muster initiator to the final actions in the temporary safe refuge (TSR). The six performance shaping factors considered in this work were stress, complexity, training, experience, event factors and atmospheric factors.     

Quantitative risk assessment: How realistic are those frequency assumptions?

Although much has changed in recent decades in how the consequences are treated in risk assessment of major industrial accidents, estimation of frequencies still appears to be largely based on values from several decades ago. This paper reviews briefly some of the implications of this, drawing on lessons not only from the process industries but also from other not so obviously relevant fields such as aerospace and finance, where the significance of such factors such as organizational culture, normalization of deviance, ownership, demographic change, etc. is becoming increasingly recognized in the analysis and hence the control of risk.Failure to consider such factors and their effects can pose a problem, because risk assessment is not simply an abstract concept but can have a real influence on the level of risk. If protective measures such as the safety culture of the site, etc. can be shown to significantly change the risk zone, this can persuade the risk generator to improve those factors or take other steps to reduce the risk such as reducing the inventory in the process. Conversely, assessments conducted for well-run companies may misrepresent the risk if the site ownership changes to a financial holding company with a focus on maximizing short-term profit and resale of the assets, and it can be difficult even for well-motivated management to justify protective measures if they produce no apparent difference in the risk.This paper introduces these and other issues for consideration in the symposium which follows.     

RAPID-N: Rapid natech risk assessment and mapping framework

Natech accidents at industrial plants are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences. For the mitigation of natech risk, authorities need to identify natech prone areas in a systematic manner. In order to facilitate probabilistic natech risk mapping, a unified methodology was developed that is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters, determination of damage probabilities of plant units, and assessment of probability and severity of possibly triggered natech events. The methodology was implemented as an on-line, extensible risk assessment and mapping software framework called RAPID-N, which allows rapid local and regional natech risk assessment and mapping with minimal data input. RAPID-N features an innovative data estimation framework to complete missing input data, such as on-site natural hazard parameters and plant unit characteristics. The framework is also used for damage assessment and natech consequence analysis, and allows easy modification of input parameters, dynamic generation of consequence models according to data availability, and extension of models by adding new equations or substituting existing ones with alternatives. Results are presented as summary reports and interactive risk maps, which can be used for land-use and emergency planning purposes by using scenario hazards, or for rapid natech consequence assessment following actual disasters. As proof of concept, the framework provides a custom implementation of the U.S. EPA's RMP Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology to perform natech consequence analysis and includes comprehensive data for earthquakes. It is readily extendible to other natural hazards and more comprehensive risk assessment methods.     

导弹核武器核事故应急有关问题研究

对导弹核武器核事故应急的主要任务、特点、组织指挥以及力量运用等问题进行了探讨,导弹核武器核事故的应急问题是一项涉及体制、人员、装备、技术、科学理论等方面的复杂系统工程,笔者结合实际,有针对性的研究了事故应急有关的问题,可为导弹核武器核事故应急提供理论指导。     

Risk management in operations of petrochemical plants: Can better planning prevent major accidents and save money at the same time?

This paper presents an argument that improvement in operational safety can be achieved concurrently with increased operational efficiency. This is a fundamentally different viewpoint on the investment in safety. Traditionally, the cost of providing safety barriers is offset by the expected benefits of reducing the occurrence and severity of accidents. Our approach departs from this method of accounting for safety improvements and focuses on planning as a means of managing systems' response uncertainty and consequently reducing both major accident risk and the cost of operations. The scope of the paper is limited to interventions such as maintenance and repairs and defined in the context of major accident prevention e.g. hydrocarbon leaks. However, the developed methodology is general enough to be applied across the spectrum of process industry facilities and operations.     

A criterion for developing credible accident scenarios for risk assessment

Maximum credible accident analysis is one of the most widely used concepts in risk assessment of chemical process industries. Central to this concept is the aspect of ‘credibility’ of envisaged accident scenarios. However, thus far the term credibility is mostly treated qualitatively, based on the subjective judgement of the concerned analysts. This causes wide variation in the results of the studies conducted on the same industrial unit by different analysts.

This paper presents an attempt to develop a criterion using which credible accident scenarios may be identified from among a large number of possibilities. The credible scenarios thus identified may then be processed for detailed consequence analysis. This would help in reducing the cost of the analysis and prevent undue emphasis on less credible scenarios at the expense of more credible ones.     

保险对企业安全监督管理之作用

通过开展适合于保险与安全监管工作的风险评估体系的研究,充分发挥保险在安全监管工作中的作用,从而为降低职工、企业乃至全社会的风险水平,为经济的可持续发展和社会稳定提供必要的保证条件.     

重大工业隐患的地域监控体系研究

系统地分析了重大工业危险源与事故隐患;研究了地域监控、预警、应急预案的体系建设以及隐患监控的新技术应用基础;提出了职业安全卫生监控体系中的工业危险源和隐患监控。笔者认为：应该分为过程安全监控和安全目标监控两个层次。     

On the development of a new hybrid risk assessment process using occupational accidents’ data: Application on the Greek Public Electric Power Provider

The occupational accidents have a major impact upon human integrity and also bring about high costs for the social health and insurance system of a country. In addition, risk analysis is an essential process for the safety policy of a company, having as main aim the effacement of any potential of damage in a productive procedure, while the quantified risk evaluation is the most crucial part of the whole procedure of assessing hazards in the work. The main goal of this study is double: a) the development and presentation of a new hybrid risk assessment process (HRAP) and b) the application of HRAP in the Greek Public Power Corporation (PPC) (the unique electric power provider and the largest industry in Greece), by using occupational accidents that have been recorded, during the 12-year period of 1993-2004. The new process consists of four distinct phases a) the hazard sources’ identification phase, b) the risk consideration phase, c) the risk-evaluation phase, and d) the phase of the risk assessment and safety-related decision making. The results show that in some cases the risk value has been calculated in PPC to be higher than 500 (in the risk rating of 0-1000), which imposes the taking of suppressive measures for abolishing the danger source, while the fatal accident frequency rate (per 10⁸ man-hrs) is FAFR ≅ 2.4.     

During-incident process assessment in emergency management: Concept and strategy

An incident is normally composed of three stages: pre-incident, during-incident and post-incident. The assessment is a prominent composition in the lifecycle of emergency management for the purpose of quick and effective response. Present-day assessment methods mainly concern the pre-incident risk evaluation and the post-incident loss evaluation. However, during-incident process assessment is of crucial importance to assist the decision-making in emergency response and eventually achieve the goals of emergency management. This paper analyzes the influencing factors of during-incident process assessment and proposes a conceptual model of assessment. Three during-incident process assessment strategies, namely, “mitigability”, “rescuability”, and recoverability are illustrated which quantitatively characterize the evolution of incidents and corresponding responses, and hence contribute to appropriate decisions in practical applications.     

Potential barriers to the competence assessment of Offshore Installation Managers: A hermeneutic perspective.

The Offshore Installation Manager (OIM) performs one of the most critical roles within the UK offshore Oil and Gas Industry. The OIM is responsible for the safety and well-being of all persons on-board and within 500 m of the installation whilst operating within a complex environment where multiple organisations and stakeholders interact. The persistence of major incidents in the industry highlights the importance of OIM competence in controlling emergencies, consequently the research aims to identify the potential barriers that can limit or prevent the proficient competence assessment of an OIM in this situation. The OIM role is investigated by qualitative analysis of key documents using hermeneutics to interpret text and to identify the potential barriers to effective competence assessment. Such analysis has historically been used within the domains of theology, business and law. Hermeneutics takes into account the cultural, historical and social environment at the time of issue of the document, and semiotics, i.e. the study of signs and symbols, their use and interpretation.Analysis is ongoing, however the six potential barriers to the effective competence assessment of OIMs in controlling emergencies identified to date are discussed. These barriers are associated with the multiple definitions of competence that exist in the UK and worldwide; the current predominance of competence assessment by observation; the lack of definitive competence requirements for trainers and assessors; the complexity in UK legislation and the interaction between UK Government departments and concerns associated with goal setting legislation when applied to competence assessment.The output from the research will assist industry Duty Holders improve the competence assessment of their appointed OIMs and allow safety engineers to consider the probable competence of an OIM in a given environment at a given point in time.     

Occupational risks and the value and modelling of a measurement of severity

In studies of occupational risks, severity, which is a component of the estimation of every risk, appears as a multifaceted entity assessable according to numerous criteria. A method of measuring the degree of severity of the consequences of potentially dangerous events would be of undeniable value to organisations seeking to improve their understanding of the complexity of such events. The need to control severity is highlighted by scientifically acquired improvements in the understanding of occupational risks, by certain new regulatory obligations in Europe, and by some requirements in the financial management of organisations. We put forward a statistical way of integrating several constituent elements of severity and hence of determining a relevant, synthetic, one-dimensional index. This is achieved by means of principal component analysis (PCA), which is used here to calculate a resultant severity, as in some physical measurements. We also investigate how severity may be statistically modelled, with the aim of contributing to the quantitative assessment of occupational risks. The choice of parametric models is detailed and illustrated by the search for a suitable model for workplace accidents in an organisational setting. The practical value of modelling severity is two-fold. First, one is able to study the distribution of the numerical values of severity over a continuum (a theoretically infinite numerical set) rather than through a limited number of arbitrarily defined categories. Second, with a generally applicable parametric model, one can estimate the law of probability of a measurement of severity in a particular situation, notably recent or new. Lastly, the statistical concept of risk curve is defined and discussed. The goal is to incorporate the severity component into the risk assessment in the form of a probability law, thus circumventing the difficulties associated with an analysis of scenarios.