Influences of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Foreign Trade

The EU, the United States and other economies, with the intention to implement unilateral trade measures Border Carbon Adjustments, impose emission reduction pressure on developing countries. Once implemented, the measures will have great impact on China’s foreign trade. Using the input-output table in 2007, this paper had analyzed the influences on China’s foreign trade as a whole and sub-sectors in three tax rates scenarios. The results showed that the tariff level of China’s exports will increase by 3.6%-6.3% if the tax was levied on exports embodied emissions, and by 1.0%-1.7% if levied on export direct emissions. In 2007, the former total amount of carbon tax was about US$42.6-73.0 billion, 4 times that of the latter. Based on export embodied emissions, sectors largely influenced were non-traditional energy intensive ones, such as textile, et al. These sectors should be encour-aged to carry out industrial upgrading, raising the value-added of export goods, and reducing their embodied emissions by reduction of energy intensity. Taking into account of the complexity of data collection, the tax levied on products direct emission is more operational. The results showed that the five top sectors most affected were other chemical materials, processing of petroleum and nuclear fuel, coking, smelting and rolling of ferrous metal and textile. Most of them were energy intensive sectors. Therefore, adjusting export products structure, and controlling too fast development of energy intensive industries are also important strategies in China.     

Influences of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Foreign Trade

Abstract

The EU, the United States and other economies, with the intention to implement unilateral trade measures Border Carbon Adjustments, impose emission reduction pressure on developing countries. Once implemented, the measures will have great impact on China’s foreign trade. Using the input-output table in 2007, this paper had analyzed the influences on China’s foreign trade as a whole and sub-sectors in three tax rates scenarios. The results showed that the tariff level of China’s exports will increase by 3.6%–6.3% if the tax was levied on exports embodied emissions, and by 1.0%–1.7% if levied on export direct emissions. In 2007, the former total amount of carbon tax was about US$42.6–73.0 billion, 4 times that of the latter. Based on export embodied emissions, sectors largely influenced were non-traditional energy intensive ones, such as textile, et al. These sectors should be encouraged to carry out industrial upgrading, raising the value-added of export goods, and reducing their embodied emissions by reduction of energy intensity. Taking into account of the complexity of data collection, the tax levied on products direct emission is more operational. The results showed that the five top sectors most affected were other chemical materials, processing of petroleum and nuclear fuel, coking, smelting and rolling of ferrous metal and textile. Most of them were energy intensive sectors. Therefore, adjusting export products structure, and controlling too fast development of energy intensive industries are also important strategies in China.     

The Vandaclim Simulation Model: A Training Tool for Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

This paper describes a training course on climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment. The course, developed in partnership with the CC:TRAIN Programme of the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), aims to enhance the capacity of developing countries to make their national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The paper focuses on a simulation model called VANDACLIM, which was developed as a pedagogical tool to facilitate the training. Four sectors are modelled within VANDACLIM (agriculture, public health, water resources, and coastal zone) and are used as a basis for helping to conduct an integrated, multi-sectoral assessment for the imaginary, sub-tropical country of Vanda. The learning-by-doing approach, encapsulated in the application of VANDACLIM to complete a mini-assessment for Vanda, proved to be very successful when trialled at a training workshop in Zimbabwe. Both the training course and VANDACLIM have been adapted subsequently for application in small island states and plans are underway for extension to other environments and regions of the world.     

Climate capacity:the measurement for adaptation to climate change

This article proposed the concept of"climate capacity"as a way of measuring human’s adaptiveness to climate change.This article also focused on the related concepts like ecological carrying capacity,water resources carrying capacity,land carrying capacity as well as population carrying capacity.The concept of climate capacity was articulated against a background of global climate and environmental change.Essentially,China’s efforts to adapt to climate change was a matter of improving climate capacity,which is the ecosystem as well as the frequency,the intensity and the scale of human’s social activities that the climatic resources of a particular geographic area were supposed to support.The climate capacity has two components.One is the natural climate capacity,which includes temperature,sunlight,precipitation,extreme climatic events,etc.The other is the derived climate capacity,which includes water resources,land resources,ecological systems,climatic risks,etc.The climate capacity can be developed or be transferred between regions by taking engineering,technology or regime-based adaptive measures.However,these adaptive measures must be implemented under the principle of economic rationalism,ecological integrity,climate protection,and social justice.It is expected that by combining the climate capacity and its threshold value with the assessment of climate change risks,we are able to predict the optimal population carrying capacity and the scale of socioeconomic development,and furthermore,provide policy support for the socioeconomic development strategy and adaptive planning.In the regions with high climate capacity,there is a symbiotic relationship between adaptation and socioeconomic development.But,in the regions with limited climate capacity,irrational development may further damage the environment.Taking the Yangtze River delta,a region with high climate capacity,and a region of Ningxia,a region with limited climate capacity,as illustrative examples,the authors of this article analyzed the policy implications of climate capacity and further made suggestions on the problems of capacitylimited adaptation and development-driven adaptation.This article argued that the concept of climate capacity can not only be used as an analytical instrument of climate change economics,but also it can provide research support for planning regional adaptation and development with climate change impact and risk assessments.     

气候变化国际谈判进展及其核心问题

本文简要介绍了目前对气候变化问题的科学认识及其可能产生的影响以及气候变化国际谈判的进展情况 ,分析气候变化问题背后蕴含的政治、经济、科技、环境和外交斗争 ,概要阐述气候变化问题的本质。     

Carbon Embodied in International Trade of China and Its Emission Responsibility

Carbon emissions embodied in international trade of China during 1997-2007 are accounted by input-output method based on Chinese input-output table and global trade analysis project database.It is revealed that carbon emissions embodied in imports and exports both increased during 1997-2007,but carbon emissions embodied in exports are greater than those embodied in imports,China is a net export nation in embodied carbon.The net exports of embodied carbon account for about 10.82% of the total carbon emissions in 1997,dropped to 7.15% in 2002,increased to13.13% in 2006,and slightly dropped to 12.64% in 2007.Low-end position of international industry division is an objective factor of being a net exporter of embodied carbon for China,and usage of a large amount of obsolete energy-using equipments wasted much energy and increased carbon emissions embodied in exports.Importers should take more responsibilities for carbon emissions embodied in trade,and China should take a certain responsibility for unreasonable energy dissipations too.     

The Social Meaning of Carbon Dioxide Emission Trading Institutional Capacity Building for a Green Market in Costa Rica

Forests offer good possibilities for the sequestration of carbon dioxide. This service can be commodified by the introduction of carbon (dioxide) credits, which can be traded on a carbon market. The premise of this paper is that the traditional economic view on the construction of these carbon markets is a too simplistic one, particularly, because it neglects the social meaning of a carbon market for developing countries. From their viewpoint as suppliers of carbon credits such a market has a broader meaning. It must be seen as a social mechanism for improving both the living conditions of local people and a more encompassing improvement of the environment than climate as such. What initially might be labelled as a carbon market might better be understood as a more encompassing 'green market'. The agreement between Costa Rica and Norway, officially known as the Reforestation Conservation Activities Implemented Jointly Project (RFCAIJP) represents a clear example of a green market. In this paper, we study the development, characteristics and benefits of that market, asking the question what lessons can be learned from this first practical experiences. More specifically we focus on the conditions that have made this type of agreement successful.     

气候变化科学与碳中和

全球气候治理的行动离不开气候变化科学认知的进步。随着世界主要国家和地区相继宣布其碳中和目标,应对气候变化问题正经历着从科学探索、控制温室气体排放、到低碳转型、共建人类命运共同体的系统变革。文章通过追溯全球气候治理的历史演进和碳中和的科学基础,指出气候变化科学进步在量化温室效应、明确当前气候变化归因和估算碳排放空间发挥的重要作用,并促使气候治理由定性描述逐渐转化为定量目标,同时确定了通过碳中和来实现应对气候变化的路径。文章通过系统分析中国气候变化科学现状,指出尽管中国科研水平在不断提高,但与美国等发达国家相比仍存在很大差距。主要表现为重大研究成果不足,研究领域分布严重不均衡、影响面窄,不足以有效服务国家气候变化内政外交等。中国碳中和之路任重道远,急需科技支撑助力。文章最后提出应围绕实现碳中和目标,优化完善中国气候变化科学建设,建立气候变化科学的“1+N”发展体系,引导研究与发展需求相结合;建立对应人才体系,在国际气候治理中积极有效地发挥中国智慧,助力中国碳中和的实现。     

Carbon Budget Proposal： An Institutional Framework for an Equitable and Sustainable World Climate Regime

Consensus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions has been reached at the technical and political level.However,as the issue involves economic costs and the right to develop,the international institutional framework for addressing greenhouse gas emissions has consistently failed to balance the demands of impartiality and sustainability.However,a sustainable carbon budget proposal is undoubtedly achievable if the global carbon budget (the total amount of carbon permitted by climate security) is made an absolute constraint.If a preliminary distribution was made among the world’s population on a per capita basis,the total limited global carbon budget could not only meet basic needs but also ensure the proposal’s equitable.Taking into account historical emission levels and future needs,we should carry out carbon budget transfer payments and devise a corresponding funding mechanism to ensure efficient allocation under the proposal.Unlike the phase-by-phase progress and provisional goals of the Kyoto Protocol,the carbon budget proposal outlined above is a comprehensive and holistic package.Due to the politicization of the climate change issue,however,many technical issues can only be worked out through international political and diplomatic negotiations.     

中国参与国际气候治理30年回顾

从20世纪90年代至今的三十年间,中国作为国际气候治理中的关键行为体,在气候治理进程中经历了四个阶段,从审慎的参与者到积极贡献者和引领者,其理念、行动和角色的变迁深刻影响了国际气候治理格局。第一,理念与原则上,在坚持“共区”原则下的发达国家和发展中国家二元划分的基础上,推动国际气候治理的公正转型;第二,意愿与行动上,中国不断加强对国际气候谈判、公约履行、治理方案提供等内容的参与,采取有力度的气候行动;第三,立场与角色上,从被动谨慎到开放积极,再到引领和贡献。究其根本原因,是整体国家利益、国家实力地位和国家角色等三大因素共同作用的结果,表现为一方面受到《联合国气候变化框架公约》为核心的国际气候制度的塑造和影响,另一方面,随着经济发展和温室气体排放的增加,中国也获得了参与国际气候治理的结构性权力,引领了《巴黎协定》“自下而上”的国际气候制度安排。当前《巴黎协定》已从规则制定转向行动落实,中国在2020年9月庄严向国际社会宣布了2030年前实现碳达峰和2060年前实现碳中和的目标,成立了碳达峰碳中和工作领导小组,并将制定“1+N”政策体系。作为负责任大国,中国提出全球发展倡议,强调要坚持人与自然和谐共生,坚持行动导向,完善全球环境治理,加快绿色低碳转型,实现绿色复苏发展。未来中国将以更积极的姿态引领国际气候治理进程,推动人与自然生命共同体和全球发展命运共同体的构建。     

Carbon Budget for Basic Needs:Implications of International Equity and Sustainability

The fundamental way of satisfying the basic needs of human development is to secure the basic needs,limit luxurious and wasteful emissions,and ensure the fulfillment of climate targets,so as to achieve intra-and intergenerational equity.In this paper,the author discusses and analyzes a series of challenges that the development has to face,such as poverty elimination,urbanization,and industrialization,and the problems of increased consumption that is brought about by the improvement of living standards;the author distinguishes the stock emission,which does not need annual updating,and the flow emission of regular consumption;the author also defines the standards of energy consumption and carbon emissions that can meet the basic needs.On this basis,the author proposes the concept and method of carbon budget,compares this method with other means,and in particular,studies and analyzes the implications of international equity and sustainability of carbon budget as part of the international climate regime design.     

跨国气候伙伴关系治理及其对中国的启示

《巴黎协定》为全球应对气候变化确立了"自下而上"的治理路径,有助于增强各类行为体的参与动力,而后续的巴黎进程更适用于建立以跨国气候伙伴关系为代表的治理模式。在这一模式下,主要施动者是地方政府和包括气候NGO、市民社会在内的非国家行为体。他们不仅在议程设定、透明度、监督执行和代表利益攸关方等方面具有不可替代的作用,而且还具有擅长短期本土化项目管理等优势。本文从国际关系的跨国行为体视角出发,对这类伙伴关系的兴起及其合法性、有效性进行分析,所获得的基本结论为:(1)各国达成《巴黎协定》的内在逻辑有助于跨国伙伴关系发挥作用;(2)当前跨国气候伙伴关系参与全球气候治理的路径呈现不断制度化的趋势;(3)跨国伙伴关系治理的合法性和有效性具有一定特殊性;(4)非国家行为体在参与治理的过程中逐渐交叉,更易形成联盟且相关的观念外溢也更为便利。这一新兴治理关系对中国的启示包括:(1)重新审视非国家行为体在全球气候治理中的作用;(2)评估一些具有重大影响力的跨国伙伴关系,并适当鼓励国内相关机构和组织参与全球进程;(3)在国内层面,以渐进的方式,有针对性地参与、建立一些跨国气候伙伴关系,有助于提升中国的城市与地方政府的气候治理能力;(4)在国际合作中,利用非国家行为体的优势推动中国所提出的南南气候合作倡议及相关项目的落实,进一步提升中国气候治理的话语权,并弥补资金、技术及能力建设上的不足。     

美欧碳关税政策的发展、影响及中国应对

全球气候治理成为焦点问题,各国之间的制衡和竞争也进入了新的阶段,发达国家试图通过政策设计对冲减排投入。美欧同步在碳关税政策上发力,意图争夺全球气候治理主导权。碳关税政策的实施可能引起国际政经格局变化,激发南北国家对立;恶化发展中国家贸易条件,降低国际贸易规模;影响全球气候治理现有格局,造成南北国家博弈加剧。同时,可能恶化中国气候领域的国际合作基础和外部环境,降低中国对外贸易规模和企业竞争力,并对中国产业发展和低碳转型造成负面冲击。积极应对是保护国内利益的重要出发点,应注意：①加强南南合作,以“共同但有区别的责任”原则为基础,争夺国际气候规则话语权;②强化贸易应对、提前谋划碳关税应对预案,加强政策跟踪研判,探索碳关税反制政策工具;③优化产业布局,深化供给侧结构性改革,摆脱高能耗、高污染的发展模式,加快绿色转型和低碳发展步伐;④通过建立完善的碳排放核算标准体系、优化国内碳税法律体系和征管机制、加快完善中国碳交易市场体系等完善碳市场体制机制。     

应对气候变化需以生态文明理念构建全球技术合作体系

气候变化是人类发展过程中遇到的最大全球性环境问题,也是最大的外部性问题。IPCC报告显示,实现本世纪末温度升高不超过2度的目标,需要全球经济和能源系统深度的低碳转型,并在本世纪下半叶达到温室气体的净零排放。应对气候变化因此面临着前所未有的技术创新与合作需求。2015年底达成的《巴黎协定》提出了落实技术开发与转让的长期愿景,主张对气候变化领域的技术创新给予政策和资金支持,使发展中国家在技术周期的早期阶段就能够获取必要的技术,从而为实现全球应对气候变化提供保障。然而,基于工业文明的传统技术创新与合作模式难以满足保护全球气候的技术需求。减缓与适应技术是气候变化挑战下全球命运共同体的公共财富。为保证其足够的供应,必须超越追求私人利益最大化的狭隘,基于生态文明理念构建全球应对气候变化的新型技术合作体系。其核心是:实现多赢的合作目标,遵循"生态人"的合作原则,体现协同的合作内容,基于互信的合作形式,鼓励多元主体的参与,促进合作成果的分享。中国作为新兴发展中大国,对应对气候变化技术国际合作有多元的利益需求。为有效落实《巴黎协定》,亟需以加速国际合作为契机,积极谋划中国应对气候变化技术对外合作的总体方略和具体行动,有针对性地制定与发达国家、其他发展中国家及欠发达国家间优势互补的合作计划,探索并引导"南-北-南"三方技术合作等新形式。     

含外来电的崇明县能源碳排放核算研究

能源消耗是中国最主要的碳排放源,而地方政府是碳管理的基层行政单元,因此,有效控制区域的能源碳排放是碳减排工作的重中之重。区域消耗的能源中,外来电是缓解当地用电压力的重要措施,但一般外来电引起的碳排放易被忽视。将外来电导致的碳排放纳入区域能源碳排放核算体系内,利用部门分析和范围分析法建立了包含外来电分析的能源碳排放核算系统,以上海市崇明县为例进行了应用。研究表明：（1）2000～2009年崇明的能源碳排放增长较快,由181万t增至477万t（CO2当量）;(2）碳排放总量的8212%来自3个部门：工业、建筑业和生活部门;(3）2009年,购买电力导致的间接碳排放达2316%,体现了实施碳管理时考虑外来电力的必要性     

甲烷排放与应对气候变化国家战略探析

甲烷的全球变暖潜势是二氧化碳的72倍(20年水平),但其在大气中的寿命短于二氧化碳,可以作为优先减排对象。中国的甲烷排放十分突出,甲烷减排在应对气候变化国家战略中具有重要的基础性地位,然而在政策研究中,甲烷受到的关注程度远低于二氧化碳。本文基于甲烷排放研究的相关进展,首次系统性地论述了中国甲烷排放与应对气候变化国家战略之间的关系。主要结论是:甲烷排放的有效控制和减缓可以成为中国温室气体减排的重要组成部分,甲烷等温室气体的减排战略要用"系统减排"思路替代传统的"末端减排"思路;甲烷系统减排的策略和实施措施不仅需要重视主要排放部门(如煤炭开采与洗选业,农业)的直接末端减排,更需要突出强调建设活动、城市消费、资本投资和出口贸易等消费端的间接体现减排;在国际气候谈判中通过纳入甲烷排放,可以至少在五个方面丰富和支撑中国的国家立场,如从承诺"单位GDP二氧化碳减排"向承诺"单位GDP温室气体减排"转变。