Understanding the effectiveness of precursor reductions in lowering 8-hr ozone concentrations--Part II. The eastern United States

Analyses of ozone (O3) measurements in conjunction with photochemical modeling were used to assess the feasibility of attaining the federal 8-hr O3 standard in the eastern United States. Various combinations of volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emission reductions were effective in lowering modeled peak 1-hr O3 concentrations. VOC emissions reductions alone had only a modest impact on modeled peak 8-hr O3 concentrations. Anthropogenic NOx emissions reductions of 46-86% of 1996 base case values were needed to reach the level of the 8-hr standard in some areas. As NOx emissions are reduced, O3 production efficiency increases, which accounts for the less than proportional response of calculated 8-hr O3 levels. Such increases in O3 production efficiency also were noted in previous modeling work for central California. O3 production in some urban core areas, such as New York City and Chicago, IL, was found to be VOC-limited. In these areas, moderate NOx emissions reductions may be accompanied by increases in peak 8-hr O3 levels. The findings help to explain differences in historical trends in 1- and 8-hr O3 levels and have serious implications for the feasibility of attaining the 8-hr O3 standard in several areas of the eastern United States.     

Modeling an air pollution episode in northwestern United States: Identifying the effect of nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compound emission changes on air pollutants formation using direct sensitivity analysis

Air quality impacts of volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from major sources over the northwestern United States are simulated. The comprehensive nested modeling system comprises three models: Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE). In addition, the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) is used to determine the sensitivities of pollutant concentrations to changes in precursor emissions during a severe smog episode in July of 2006. The average simulated 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentration is 48.9 ppb, with 1-hr O₃ maxima up to 106 ppb (40 km southeast of Seattle). The average simulated PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) concentration at the measurement sites is 9.06 μg m^?3, which is in good agreement with the observed concentration (8.06 μg m^?3). In urban areas (i.e., Seattle, Vancouver, etc.), the model predicts that, on average, a reduction of NO_x emissions is simulated to lead to an increase in average 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations, and will be most prominent in Seattle (where the greatest sensitivity is??0.2 ppb per % change of mobile sources). On the other hand, decreasing NO_x emissions is simulated to decrease the 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations in remote and forested areas. Decreased NO_x emissions are simulated to slightly increase PM_2.5 in major urban areas. In urban areas, a decrease in VOC emissions will result in a decrease of 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations. The impact of decreased VOC emissions from biogenic, mobile, nonroad, and area sources on average 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations is up to 0.05 ppb decrease per % of emission change, each. Decreased emissions of VOCs decrease average PM_2.5 concentrations in the entire modeling domain. In major cities, PM_2.5 concentrations are more sensitive to emissions of VOCs from biogenic sources than other sources of VOCs. These results can be used to interpret the effectiveness of VOC or NO_x controls over pollutant concentrations, especially for localities that may exceed National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

Implications: The effect of NO_x and VOC controls on ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in the northwestern United States is examined using the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) in a state-of-the-art three-dimensional chemical transport model (CMAQ). NO_x controls are predicted to increase PM_2.5 and ozone in major urban areas and decrease ozone in more remote and forested areas. VOC reductions are helpful in reducing ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in urban areas. Biogenic VOC sources have the largest impact on O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations.     

Day-of-Week behavior of atmospheric ozone in three U.S. cities

The weekly cycles of atmospheric ozone (O3) are of interest because they provide information about the response of O3 to changes in anthropogenic emissions from weekdays to weekends. The weekly behavior of O3 in Chicago, IL; Philadelphia, PA; and Atlanta, GA, is contrasted. In Chicago and Philadelphia, maximum 1-hr average O3 increases on weekends. In Atlanta, O3 builds up from Mondays to Fridays and declines during weekends. In all three areas, volatile organic compound (VOC)/nitrogen oxides (NOx) ratios are higher during weekends, resulting from greater than proportionate decreases in NOx relative to VOC emissions. The VOC/NOx ratios correlate with maximum 1-hr O3 concentrations in Chicago, a response consistent with a VOC-sensitive airshed. A weak correlation between O3 concentrations and VOC/NOx ratios in Philadelphia suggests the impact of transported O3, which is formed in upwind VOC-sensitive locations that may be hundreds of kilometers away. Ozone concentrations in Atlanta do not correlate with VOC/NOx ratios but with concentrations of NOx and total reactive nitrogen (NOy) carried over from the previous day. When data from 1986-1990 and 1995-1999 are compared, only small differences in the weekly behavior of O3 are observed in Chicago and Philadelphia. The day-of-week differences in O3 are amplified in the more recent period in Atlanta, a possible result of urban growth.     

Evaluation of ozone-nitrogen oxides-volatile organic compound sensitivity of Cincinnati, Ohio

Ambient concentrations of ozone (O3), nitrogen oxides (NOx), total reactive nitrogen (NOy), nitric acid (HNO3), and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) were measured during September 2003 at an urban site of Cincinnati, OH. The aim of this study was two-fold: to investigate whether O3 formation in this population exposure-type site is NOx, sensitive or volatile organic compound (VOC) sensitive and to test the practicality of using two combined observational-based methods to identify the sensitivity of O3 formation in midlevel polluted locations. The evaluation of the indicator species: NOy, O3/NOy, O3/HNO3, H2O2/ HNO3, and O3/(estimated NOx reaction products), as well as the combined hypothesis testing analysis of the weekend/weekday (WE/WD) differences of 1-hr and 8-hr average maximum O3 and of the 6:00 a.m.-9:00 a.m. average nitric oxide and NOx concentrations, show evidence that Cincinnati is likely VOC sensitive. Average WE 1-hr and 8-hr maximum O3, as well as duration of WE O3 accumulation, were not lower than the corresponding WD levels in spite of the observed significant reduction in NO, emissions on WE, a typical situation in VOC-sensitive locations. The possibility that the seasonal transition from summer to autumn could have influenced the results was also investigated through an exploratory analysis of the afternoon O3 maximum/NOx measured and of the WE/WD differences of peak O3 and morning average NO and NO, concentrations observed at this site from June through September 2003. The results suggest that a VOC-sensitive chemistry regime dominated along the summer season. The findings of this study suggest that additional reductions in regional NO, emissions in Cincinnati, a potential nonattainment area under the 8-hr O3 standard, may cause an increase in local O3. Future strategies to reduce O3 in Southwest Ohio should be further evaluated carefully. The combination of observational-based methods might provide a consistent complementary approach in the identification of the NO,-VOC sensitive characteristics of mid-to-moderate polluted urban areas.     

Evolution of the magnitude and spatial extent of the weekend ozone effect in California's South Coast Air Basin, 1981-2000

Since the mid-1970s, ozone (O3) levels in portions of California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) on weekends have been as high as or higher than levels on weekdays, even though emissions of O3 precursors are lower on weekends. Analysis of the ambient data indicates that the intensity and spatial extent of the weekend O3 effect are correlated with-day-of-week variations in the extent of O3 inhibition caused by titration with nitric oxide (NO), reaction of hydroxyl radical (OH) with nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and rates of O3 accumulation. Lower NO mixing ratios and higher NO2/oxides of nitrogen (NOx) ratios on weekend mornings allow O3 to begin accumulating approximately an hour earlier on weekends. The weekday/weekend differences in the duration of O3 accumulation remained relatively constant from 1981 to 2000. In contrast, the rate of O3 accumulation decreased by one-third to one-half over the same period; the largest reductions occurred in the central basin on weekdays. Trends in mixing ratios of O3 precursors show a transition to lower volatile organic compound (VOC)/NOx ratios caused by greater reductions in VOC emissions. Reductions in VOC/NOx ratios were greater on weekdays, resulting in higher VOC/NOx ratios on weekends relative to weekdays. Trends in VOC/NOx ratios parallel the downward trend in peak O3 levels, a shift in the location of peak O3 from the central to the eastern portion of the basin, and an increase in the magnitude and spatial extent of the weekend O3 effect.     

Weekday/weekend ozone differences: what can we learn from them?

A national analysis of weekday/weekend ozone (O3) differences demonstrates significant variation across the country. Weekend 1-hr or 8-hr maximum O3 varies from 15% lower than weekday levels to 30% higher. The weekend O3 increases are primarily found in and around large coastal cities in California and large cities in the Midwest and Northeast Corridor. Both the average and the 95th percentile of the daily 1-hr and 8-hr maxima exhibit the same general pattern. Many sites that have elevated O3 also have higher O3 on weekends even though traffic and O3 precursor levels are substantially reduced on weekends. Detailed studies of this phenomenon indicate that the primary cause of the higher O3 on weekends is the reduction in oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions on weekends in a volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemical regime. In contrast, the lower O3 on weekends in other locations is probably a result of NOx reductions in a NOx-limited regime. The NOx reduction explanation is supported by a wide range of ambient analyses and several photochemical modeling studies. Changes in the timing and location of emissions and meteorological factors play smaller roles in weekend O3 behavior. Weekday/weekend temperature differences do not explain the weekend effect but may modify it.     

Modeling the effects of VOC/NOx emissions on ozone synthesis in the cascadia airshed of the Pacific Northwest

A modeling system consisting of MM5, Calmet, and Calgrid was used to investigate the sensitivity of anthropogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) reductions on ozone formation within the Cascadia airshed of the Pacific Northwest. An ozone episode that occurred on July 11-14, 1996, was evaluated. During this event, high ozone levels were recorded at monitors downwind of Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR, with one monitor exceeding the 1 hr/120 ppb National Ambient Air Quality Standard (at 148 ppb), and six monitors above the proposed 8 hr/80 ppb standard (at 82-130 ppb). For this particular case, significant emissions reductions, between 25 and 75%, would be required to decrease peak ozone concentrations to desired levels. Reductions in VOC emissions alone, or a combination of reduced VOC and NOx emissions, were generally found to be most effective; reducing NOx emissions alone resulted in increased ozone in the Seattle area. When only VOC emissions were curtailed, ozone reductions occurred in the immediate vicinity of densely populated areas, while NOx reductions resulted in more widespread ozone reductions.     

Modeling analyses of the effects of changes in nitrogen oxides emissions from the electric power sector on ozone levels in the eastern United States

In this paper, we examine the changes in ambient ozone concentrations simulated by the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for summer 2002 under three different nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission scenarios. Two emission scenarios represent best estimates of 2002 and 2004 emissions; they allow assessment of the impact of the NOx emissions reductions imposed on the utility sector by the NOx State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call. The third scenario represents a hypothetical rendering of what NOx emissions would have been in 2002 if no emission controls had been imposed on the utility sector. Examination of the modeled median and 95th percentile daily maximum 8-hr average ozone concentrations reveals that median ozone levels estimated for the 2004 emission scenario were less than those modeled for 2002 in the region most affected by the NOx SIP Call. Comparison of the "no-control" with the "2002" scenario revealed that ozone concentrations would have been much higher in much of the eastern United States if the utility sector had not implemented NOx emission controls; exceptions occurred in the immediate vicinity of major point sources where increased NO titration tends to lower ozone levels.     

Development of the SAPRC-07 chemical mechanism

An updated version of the SAPRC-99 gas-phase atmospheric chemical mechanism, designated SAPRC-07, is described. The rate constants and reactions have been updated based on current data and evaluations, the aromatics mechanisms have been reformulated and are less parameterized, chlorine chemistry has been added, the method used to represent peroxy reactions has been reformulated to be more appropriate for modeling gas-phase secondary organic aerosol precursors, and representations for many types of VOCs have been added or improved. This mechanism was evaluated against the result of ～2400 environmental chamber experiments carried out in 11 different environmental chambers, including experiments to test mechanisms for over 110 types of VOCs. The performance in simulating the chamber data was generally satisfactory for most types of VOCs but some biases were seen in simulations of some types of experiments. The mechanism was used to derive updated MIR and other ozone reactivity scales for almost 1100 types of VOCs, though in most cases the changes in MIR values relative to SAPRC-99 were not large. This mechanism update results in somewhat lower predictions of ozone in one-day ambient model scenarios under low VOC/NO_x conditions. The files needed to implement the mechanism and additional documentation is available at the SAPRC mechanism web site at http://www.cert.ucr.edu/～carter/SAPRC.     

An environmental decision-making tool for evaluating ground-level ozone-related health effects

A computer model called the Ozone Risk Assessment Model (ORAM) was developed to evaluate the health effects caused by ground-level ozone (O3) exposure. ORAM was coupled with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Third-Generation Community Multiscale Air Quality model (Models-3/CMAQ), the state-of-the-art air quality model that predicts O3 concentration and allows the examination of various scenarios in which emission rates of O3 precursors (basically, oxides of nitrogen [NOx] and volatile organic compounds) are varied. The principal analyses in ORAM are exposure model performance evaluation, health-effects calculations (expected number of respiratory hospital admissions), economic valuation, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis through a Monte Carlo simulation. As a demonstration of the system, ORAM was applied to the eastern Tennessee region, and the entire O3 season was simulated for a base case (typical emissions) and three different emission scenarios. The results indicated that a synergism occurs when reductions in NOx emissions from mobile and point sources were applied simultaneously. A 12.9% reduction in asthma hospital admissions is expected when both mobile and point source NOx emissions are reduced (50 and 70%, respectively) versus a 5.8% reduction caused by mobile source and a 3.5% reduction caused by point sources when these emission sources are reduced individually.     

Future year ozone source attribution modeling studies for the eastern and western United States

Three modeling approaches, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) zero-out, the Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions (CAMx) zero-out, and the CAMx probing tools ozone source apportionment tool (OSAT), were used to project the contributions of various source categories to future year design values for summer 8-hr average ozone concentrations at selected U.S. monitors. The CMAQ and CAMx zero-out or brute-force approaches predicted generally similar contributions for most of the source categories, with some small differences. One of the important findings from this study was that both the CMAQ and CAMx zero-out approaches tended to apportion a larger contribution to the “other” category than the OSAT approach. For the OSAT approach, this category is the difference between the total emissions and the sum of the tracked emissions and consists of non-U.S. emissions. For the zero-out approach, it also includes the effects of nonlinearities in the system because the sum of the sensitivities of all sources is not necessarily equal to the sum of their contributions in a nonperturbed environment. The study illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of source apportionment approaches, such as OSAT, and source sensitivity approaches, such as zero-out. The OSAT approach is suitable for studying source contributions, whereas the zero-out approach is suitable for studying response to emission changes. Future year design values of summer 8-hr average ozone concentrations were projected to decrease at all the selected monitors for all the simulations in each city, except at the downtown Los Angeles monitor. Both the CMAQ and CAMx results showed all modeled locations project attainment in 2018 and 2030 to the current National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) level of 75 ppb, except the selected Los Angeles monitor in 2018 and the selected San Bernardino monitor in 2018 and 2030.

Implications:This study illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of three modeling approaches, CMAQ zero-out, CAMx zero-out, and OSAT to project contributions of various source categories to future year design values for summer 8-hr average ozone concentrations at selected U.S. monitors. The OSAT approach is suitable for studying source contributions, whereas the zero-out approach is suitable for studying response to emission changes. Future year design values of summer 8-hr average ozone concentrations were projected to decrease, except at the downtown Los Angeles monitor. Comparing projections with the current NAAQS (75 ppb) show attainment everywhere, except two locations in 2018 and one location in 2030.     

Understanding the effectiveness of precursor reductions in lowering 8-hr ozone concentrations

Analyses of ambient measured ozone data were used in conjunction with the application of photochemical modeling to determine the technical feasibility of attaining the federal 8-hr ozone standard in central California. Various combinations of volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emission reductions were effective in lowering modeled peak 1-hr ozone concentrations. However, VOC emissions reductions were found to have only a modest impact on modeled peak 8-hr ozone concentrations. NOx emission reductions generally lowered 8-hr ozone concentrations, but their effectiveness was partially or, in some cases, wholly offset by the increase in the number of NO cycles and, hence, in the ozone produced per NO. As a result, substantial NOx emission reductions--70 to 90%--were required to reduce peak 8-hr ozone concentrations to the level of the standard throughout the modeling domain. These modeling results provide a possible physical explanation for recent analyses that have reported more prominent trends in peak 1-hr ozone levels than in peak 8-hr ozone concentrations or in occurrences of mid-level (60-90 parts per billion by volume) ozone concentrations. The findings also have serious implications for the feasibility of attaining the 8-hr ozone standard in central California. Further efforts are needed to clarify the applicability of the modeling results to the full set of days with ozone levels exceeding the 8-hr ozone standard, as well as their applicability to other geographical areas.     

Modeling weekday/weekend ozone differences in the Los Angeles region for 1997

Numerous studies of ambient ozone (O3) in the Los Angeles (LA) area have found both increases and decreases in elevated O3 levels on weekends, depending on location and year. Since the mid-1990s, average daily maximum O3 levels have been higher on weekends than on weekdays throughout most of the area. We used the Comprehensive Air-Quality Model with extensions to investigate causes of weekday/weekend O3 differences in the LA area for August 3-7, 1997, from the Southern California Ozone Study. Weekday/weekend emission changes were estimated, because explicit weekend inventories are not yet available from regulatory agencies. Changes to on-road motor vehicle (MV) emissions were derived from observed weekday/weekend traffic differences. The estimated changes in MV emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) were a 5% increase on Friday, a 27% decrease on Saturday, and a 37% decrease on Sunday, relative to Monday-Thursday levels. The corresponding changes in MV volatile organic carbon (VOC) emissions were an 8% increase on Friday, an 8% decrease on Saturday, and a 15% decrease on Sunday. Modeling these MV emissions changes explained the observed weekend O3 effect very well. Furthermore, changes to the mass of MV NOx emissions were the main contributor to O3 differences rather than changes to the timing of MV emissions. Ozone increases on weekends were caused by NOx emission decreases, because O3 formation is strongly VOC-limited throughout most of the LA area.     

Weekday versus weekend activity patterns for ozone precursor emissions in California's South Coast Air Basin

Ambient O3 concentrations in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) can be as much as 55% higher on weekends than on weekdays under comparable meteorological conditions. This is paradoxical because emissions of O3 precursors (hydrocarbons, CO, and nitrogen oxides [NOx]) are lower on weekends. Day-of-week emissions activity data were collected and analyzed to investigate the hypothesized causes of the "weekend O3 effect." Emission activity data were collected for various mobile, area, and point sources throughout the SoCAB, including on-road vehicles, lawn and garden equipment, barbecues, fireplaces, solvent use, and point sources with continuous emission monitoring data. The results of this study indicate significant differences between weekday and weekend emission activity patterns and emissions. Their combined effect results in a 12-18% decrease in reactive organic gases (ROGs) and a 35-41% decrease in NOx emissions on Saturdays and Sundays, respectively, relative to weekdays in summer 2000. These changes in emissions result in an increase of more than 30% in the ROG/NOx ratio on weekends compared with weekdays, which, along with lower NOx emissions, leads to increased O3 production on weekends.     

Weekday/Weekend differences in ambient air pollutant concentrations in atlanta and the southeastern United States

The authors quantified changes between mean weekday and weekend ambient concentrations of ozone (O3) precursors (volatile organic compounds [VOC], carbon monoxide [CO], nitric oxide, and oxides of nitrogen [NOx]) in Atlanta and surrounding areas to observe how weekend precursor emission levels influenced ambient O3 levels. The authors analyzed CO, nitric oxide (NO), and NO, measurements from 1998 to 2002 and speciated VOC from 1996 to 2003. They observed a strong weekend effect in the Atlanta region, with median daytime (6:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time) decreases of 62%, 57%, and 31%, respectively, in the ambient levels of NO, NOx, and CO from Wednesdays to Sundays, during the ozone season (March to October). They also observed significant decreases in ambient VOC levels between Wednesdays and Sundays, with decreases of 28% for the sum of aromatic compounds and 19% for the sum of Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations target compounds. Despite large reductions in O3 precursor levels on weekends, day-of-week differences in O3 mixing ratios in and near Atlanta were much smaller. Averaging overall O3-season days, the 1-hr and 8-hr mean peak daily O3 maxima on Sundays were 4.5% and 2.3% lower, respectively, than their mean levels on Wednesdays (median of 14 site differences), with no sites showing statistically significant Wednesday-to-Sunday differences. When restricted to high-O3 days (highest 3 peak O3 days per day of week per site per year), the 1-hr and 8-hr Sunday O3 mixing ratios were 11% and 10% lower, respectively, than their mean peak levels on Wednesdays (median of 14 site differences), with 6 of 14 sites showing statistically significant Wednesday-to-Sunday differences. The analyses of weekday/weekend differences in O3 precursor concentrations show that different emission reductions than normally take place each weekend will be required to achieve major reductions in ambient ozone levels in the Atlanta area.     

Evaluation of air quality models for the simulation of a high ozone episode in the Houston metropolitan area

A high ozone event in the Houston–Galveston–Brazoria area was utilized to study the shortcomings of the current air quality models. To improve the baseline simulations with the Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) for developing the state implementation plan, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) imputed emissions of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs) by scaling the amount of fugitive emissions of olefins to co-emitted NO_x from selected point sources, effectively multiplying by 3–12 times over the regular inventory values. In this paper, CAMx and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model were used to determine if the imputed HRVOC emissions were consistent with the observed atmospheric conditions. With the base emissions, CMAQ and CAMx both with the Carbon-Bond 4 (CB-4) mechanism simulated similar ozone concentrations. But with the imputed HRVOC emissions, CMAQ predicted lower ozone peaks than CAMx in the vicinity and downwind of the Ship Channel and other highly HRVOC-rich areas. Based on analyses of sensitivity simulations of CMAQ with different emission inputs and vertical diffusion algorithms in the model, we found that the modeled atmosphere lacked reactivity to produce the observed high ozone event. Although the imputed HRVOC emissions improved ozone prediction at the surface sites, but the ethylene concentrations were not consistent with the measurements at the super sites (La Porte and Clinton) and by NOAA aircraft. Several sensitivity tests designed to provide additional radicals into the system and other research results suggested that the lack of reactivity may need to be corrected by targeted, and probably of episodic, increase of HRVOC emissions, from the sources in the Houston Ship Channel. Additional investigation of the ozone production efficiency for different chemical mechanisms is necessary to pinpoint the emissions uncertainty issues.     

Modeling and direct sensitivity analysis of biogenic emissions impacts on regional ozone formation in the Mexico-U.S. border area

A spatially and temporally resolved biogenic hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions inventory has been developed for a region along the Mexico-U.S. border area. Average daily biogenic non-methane organic gases (NMOG) emissions for the 1700 x 1000 km2 domain were estimated at 23,800 metric tons/day (62% from Mexico and 38% from the United States), and biogenic NOx was estimated at 1230 metric tons/day (54% from Mexico and 46% from the United States) for the July 18-20, 1993, ozone episode. The biogenic NMOG represented 74% of the total NMOG emissions, and biogenic NOx was 14% of the total NOx. The CIT photochemical airshed model was used to assess how biogenic emissions impact air quality. Predicted ground-level ozone increased by 5-10 ppb in most rural areas, 10-20 ppb near urban centers, and 20-30 ppb immediately downwind of the urban centers compared to simulations in which only anthropogenic emissions were used. A sensitivity analysis of predicted ozone concentration to emissions was performed using the decoupled direct method for three dimensional air quality models (DDM-3D). The highest positive sensitivity of ground-level ozone concentration to biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions (i.e., increasing biogenic VOC emissions results in increasing ozone concentrations) was predicted to be in locations with high NOx levels, (i.e., the urban areas). One urban center--Houston--was predicted to have a slight negative sensitivity to biogenic NO emissions (i.e., increasing biogenic NO emissions results in decreasing local ozone concentrations). The highest sensitivities of ozone concentrations to on-road mobile source VOC emissions, all positive, were mainly in the urban areas. The highest sensitivities of ozone concentrations to on-road mobile source NOx emissions were predicted in both urban (either positive or negative sensitivities) and rural (positive sensitivities) locations.     

Photochemical smog modeling for assessment of potential impacts of different management strategies on air quality of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand

A photochemical smog model system, the Variable-Grid Urban Airshed Model/Systems Applications International Mesoscale Model (UAM-V/SAIMM), was used to investigate photochemical pollution in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR). The model system was first applied to simulate a historical photochemical smog episode of two days (January 13-14, 1997) using the 1997 anthropogenic emission database available at the Pollution Control Department and an estimated biogenic emission. The output 1-hr ozone (O3) for BMR, however, did not meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency suggested performance criteria. The simulated minimum and maximum O3 values in the domain were much higher than the observations. Multiple model runs with different precursor emission reduction scenarios showed that the best model performance with the simulated 1-hr O3 meeting all the criteria was obtained when the volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emission from mobile source reduced by 50% and carbon monoxide by 20% from the original database. Various combinations of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions in Bangkok and surrounding provinces were simulated to assess the contribution of different sources to O3 pollution in the city. O3 formation in Bangkok was found to be more VOC-sensitive than NOx-sensitive. To attain the Thailand ambient air quality standard for 1-hr O3 of 100 ppb, VOC emission in BMR should be reduced by 50-60%. Management strategies considered in the scenario study consist of Stage I, Stage II vapor control, replacement of two-stroke by four-stroke motorcycles, 100% compressed natural gas bus, 100% natural gas-fired power plants, and replacement of methyltertiarybutylether by ethanol as an additive for gasoline.     

Dynamic evaluation of a regional air quality model: Assessing the emissions-induced weekly ozone cycle

Air quality models are used to predict changes in pollutant concentrations resulting from envisioned emission control policies. Recognizing the need to assess the credibility of air quality models in a policy-relevant context, we perform a dynamic evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system for the “weekend ozone effect” to determine if observed changes in ozone due to weekday-to-weekend (WDWE) reductions in precursor emissions can be accurately simulated. The weekend ozone effect offers a unique opportunity for dynamic evaluation, as it is a widely documented phenomenon that has persisted since the 1970s. In many urban areas of the Unites States, higher ozone has been observed on weekends than weekdays, despite dramatically reduced emissions of ozone precursors (nitrogen oxides [NO_x] and volatile organic compounds [VOCs]) on weekends. More recent measurements, however, suggest shifts in the spatial extent or reductions in WDWE ozone differences. Using 18 years (1988–2005) of observed and modeled ozone and temperature data across the northeastern United States, we re-examine the long-term trends in the weekend effect and confounding factors that may be complicating the interpretation of this trend and explore whether CMAQ can replicate the temporal features of the observed weekend effect. The amplitudes of the weekly ozone cycle have decreased during the 18-year period in our study domain, but the year-to-year variability in weekend minus weekday (WEWD) ozone amplitudes is quite large. Inter-annual variability in meteorology appears to influence WEWD differences in ozone, as well as WEWD differences in VOC and NO_x emissions. Because of the large inter-annual variability, modeling strategies using a single episode lasting a few days or a few episodes in a given year may not capture the WEWD signal that exists over longer time periods. The CMAQ model showed skill in predicting the absolute values of ozone concentrations during the daytime. However, early morning NO_x concentrations were underestimated and ozone levels were overestimated. Also, the modeled response of ozone to WEWD differences in emissions was somewhat less than that observed. This study reveals that model performance may be improved by (1) properly estimating mobile source NO_x emissions and their temporal distributions, especially for diesel vehicles; (2) reducing the grid cell size in the lowest layer of CMAQ; and, (3) using time-dependent and more realistic boundary conditions for the CMAQ simulations.     

The effect of reformulated gasoline on ambient carbon monoxide concentrations in southeastern Wisconsin

Reformulated gasoline (RFG) contains oxygen additives such as methyl tertiary butyl ether or ethanol. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Because VOCs react with sunlight to form ozone (O3), the Clean Air Act requires severe O3 nonattainment areas such as southeastern Wisconsin to use RFG. On July 17, 2001, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted Milwaukee, WI, and Chicago, IL, a waiver from the VOC reduction requirement of Phase II RFG. The VOC reduction requirement was lowered from 27.4% of the 1990 baseline fuel to 25.4%. The assumption was that ethanol-blended RFG would lower summertime CO concentrations sufficiently to offset the increased VOC emissions. The waiver is estimated to increase VOC emissions by approximately 0.8%, or 0.4 t of VOC on a hot summer weekday. This study evaluates whether RFG has been effective in lowering southeastern Wisconsin ambient CO concentrations. Three years of ambient CO data before RFG was introduced were compared with the first three years of ambient CO data after RFG was introduced. This paper also evaluates how the meteorology, vehicle inspection/maintenance program, vehicle miles traveled, and stationary source emissions influence CO concentrations. The winter decrease in ambient CO concentrations was found to be statistically significant, while the summer data showed no statistically significant change, indicating that RFG is most effective lowering ambient CO concentrations in cold weather.