Ecological and Economic System Health Assessment Based on Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis： A Case Study of Northwest Region, China

Due to the increasingly serious environmental pollution and destruction,especially humans’ unreasonable activities,the ecological and economic system(EES) issues of Northwest region in China have attracted more and more attention of the researchers.Aiming at evaluating its ecological and economic system health,a multi-objective evaluation framework called PressureState-Response(PSR) was established to describe the ecological and economic health situations.Meanwhile,an integrative set pair model combining set pair analysis(SPA) and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) was proposed to assess the ecological and economic system.Then the EES status of five northwest provinces(Shanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia and Xinjiang) of Northwest region in China was evaluated during 1985 to 2009.The EES development trends of five provinces are obtained.In general,the health values of five provinces showed a rising trend.The health values of five provinces grew rapidly during 1985 to 2000.After 2000,the health values of five provinces still followed the present growth trend,but the growth is relatively smooth.The results show that the method proposed is effective for assessing the health of ecological and economic system.     

基于生命力指数与集对分析的城市生态系统健康评价

鉴于城市生态系统的生命特征,引入城市生命体概念,构建包括生产力、生活态、生态势和生机度的城市生命力指数,分别针对经济子系统、社会子系统、自然子系统及生态调控子系统来综合反映城市生态系统健康状况.引入集对分析这种不确定理论与方法,在充分考虑城市生态系统健康不确定性与相对性的基础上,构造各被评价城市与最优评价集的相对贴近度,开展城市生态系统相对健康状况比较研究,以促进城市生态系统健康水平的整体提升.利用基于集对分析的城市生命力指数综合评价模型及信急熵权重,比较了北京、上海、武汉、广州等16个城市2005年的生命力指数相对状况,结果表明:2005年,厦门、上海、北京、青岛等城市的生命力指数处于被评价城市中相对较高等级,即城市生态系统健康状况较优;而重庆、西安、银川、哈尔滨、成都等城市处于相对较低等级,即城市生态系统健康状况较劣.     

大庆市城市经济系统可持续性评价

三角模型作为一种直观的平台能够很好地图解区域可持续综合发展状况及长期趋势.由于具有直观性和简明性,三角模型易于被不同层次的学者和政策制定者理解和应用.根据经济发展、资源-能源消耗及环境污染的相互关系,结合生态学表现,利用三角模型工具分析评估区域经济可持续发展状况和长期趋势.本文选择我国最大的石油资源型城市--大庆市作为典型案例.大庆市位于黑龙江省西部,下辖5个区和4个县,2006年全市土地总面积为2.1219万hm2,总人口269.3万.结果表明,大庆市经济系统可持续性状况不容乐观,"八五"、"九五"时期处于不可持续和弱可持续性状态,"十五"中后期才缓慢进入一般可持续性状态;"八五"时期大庆市经济系统具有一般可持续性发展趋势,"九五"时期呈现强可持续性发展趋势,进入新世纪后却呈现出由强可持续性向一般可持续性的发展趋势.     

西南岩溶区生态安全评价研究 ——以广西为例

西南岩溶区是举世公认的典型的生态环境脆弱系统之一,也是我国典型的极贫困代表区域之一.广西处于西南岩溶地区,岩溶面积为9.8×104km2,占广西土地总面积的41%.本文以广西为例,采用生态足迹的理论和方法来测算广西区域生态安全状况,对1990～2003年广西岩溶生态环境的生态足迹、生态承载力、生态盈亏及生态压力指数进行测算分析并提出预测模型.研究结果①广西生态足迹呈不断增加趋势,从1990年的0.601 7 hm2增加到2003年的1.137 8 hm2;②生态承载力呈不断下降趋势,从1990年的0.820 4 hm2减少到2003年的0.653 7 hm2;③生态盈亏从1990年生态盈余的0.218 8 hm2下降到2003年的生态赤字达-0.484 8 hm2,出现严重的生态赤字;④1990～2003年生态足迹压力指数由0.7334增加到1.7406,增长幅度巨大,从临界安全状态到不安全状态.     

Vulnerability Assessment of Snow Disaster Based on Traffic System： A Case Study of Chenzhou City in Hunan Province, China

The article establishes the patterns of urban snow disaster system and disaster chain based on the theory of regional disaster system. The patterns indicate that urban snow disaster is exacerbated mainly through the traffic system. In addition, the paper sets up the vulnerability assessment index system and synthetically vulnerability assessment model of urban snow disaster which are mainly based on traffic system, and applies them in Chenzhou City. The results of assessment indicate that obvious geographical differences exist in the vulnerability of snow disaster bearing bodies： vulnerability of Chenzhou section of the Beijing-Zhuhai expressway is the highest in Chenzhou City, and the southeastern counties are more vulnerable than the northwest region. Furthermore, according to the snow disaster vulnerability dynamic process analysis, the vulnerability of Chenzhou City obviously increased in 2008 winter compared with that in 2007. Finally, the paper presents some suggestions for the locations of the emergency commands and the reserves of relief materials based on the evaluation results, and points out that disaster monitoring and relevant technical level should be strengthened for the minimization of traffic system＇s vulnerability.     

中国西部生态脆弱区产业结构调整的污染风险分析——以青海省为例

实现产业结构的调整升级是当今世界各国经济发展的普遍趋势,也是提升经济增长速度和水平的有效途径。青海省作为我国西部重要省份之一,不仅经济发展水平相对落后,而且生态环境也十分脆弱。随着西部大开发进程的不断推进,青海省经济加速发展,由此产生的污染风险也日趋提高。因此,研究青海省产业结构调整对提炼西部生态脆弱区协调经济增长与污染排放的关系并实现污染风险的有效监管具有重大意义。本文依据经济增长-环境质量回归模型研究了青海省产业结构升级与污染物排放的关系,发现青海省经济增长与污染物排放之间存在倒U型曲线关系。研究发现,青海省仍然处于污染物排放随经济增长而增长的阶段,且距离拐点仍有一定的距离。此外,本文分析了青海省不同产业随时间的变化趋势,虽然三大产业均有增长的态势,但是各占GDP比例变化却各不相同。其中,第一产业的比例不断下降,第二产业的比例不断增长,而第三产业在增长到一定比例后,有小幅减少的趋势。在此基础上,本文利用青海省不同产业占全国相同产业的比例,分析了青海省产业结构的变化趋势,并利用环境投入-产出模型计算了产业结构调整和升级过程中造成的污染物排放量,评价了产业结构升级可能带来的污染风险。虽然青海省第一产业占该区域GDP比例呈减少态势,但占全国比例并未发生明显变化,这表明了青海省农林牧渔业的发展趋势和速度基本与全国平均水平持平;第二产业占全国比例大部分呈减少的态势,而第三产业却有一定的增长态势,这在一定程度上反映了青海省产业发展正在向加大第三产业的发展并控制污染较严重的第二产业的发展的方向转变。产业结构的提升对不同产业污染物的排放也产生了不同的影响。其中,机械电子设备制造业、住宿餐饮和零售业和房地及租赁产业的提升导致了污染物排放小幅增长,而其他产业尤其是建筑业、金属制品业等的扩张则对污染物排放均有不同程度的抑制作用。因此,虽然其经济发展会在一定程度上加重环境污染风险,并且污染排放量会随经济的进一步发展而不断加大,但2002-2007年青海省产业结构变化对废水、废气等污染的排放产生了一定的控制作用,从而降低了青海省环境污染的风险。研究结论为青海省调整产业结构以抑制环境污染风险并保障区域经济发展和环境保护的协调提供重要的决策参考信息。     

Research on Indicator System of Regional Eco-efficiency: A Case Study of Chengyang District

Abstract

Eco-efficiency is a valuable tool for managing and solving issues involving resource consumption and pollution emission in current production processes. Despite the popularity of the term “eco-efficiency” in business, limited attention has been paid to measuring and reporting regional eco-efficiency for local government policy makers. Based on the concept and method of eco-efficiency, an indicator system of regional eco-efficiency is established in this study. The indicator system comprises 22 indicators, which are divided in to three categories including socio-economic development, resources consumption, environmental pressure. As a promising statistical technique, principle component analysis is used to set the weight of indicators which attempts to calculate the eco-efficiency indices of Qingdao's Chengyang District. The results show that the eco-efficiency of Chengyang District has clearly improved 35.1% with small fluctuation from 1995 to 2003. Socio-economic development index and resources consumption index also represent obvious increasing trends. The correlation coefficient between soci-economic development index and resources consumption index is 0.979, which means the social progress and economic growth of Chengyang District depend on an extravagant consumption of resources. The environmental pressure index in- creased slowly before 1997 and declined gradually after 1997, due to more attention being paid to environmental protection by local government in recent years. Chengyang District still keeps the traditional economic development mode with a high consumption and high production, so the emphases of future development should put on improving the improving the efficient use of natural resources and promoting environmental management sustainability. The results show that the indicators system of regional eco-efficiency is a promising method to quantitatively evaluate resources and environmental efficiency and provide an effective decision-making support for local governments.     

基于海湾空间的海洋经济差异分析——以辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾为例

以辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾为海湾地理空间尺度,引入泰尔指数和变差系数、灰色关联法研究三大海湾地区的海洋经济规模总量和海洋产业关联效应的差异,运用多种预测模型预测未来十年三大海湾间地区海洋经济对区域经济发展影响和贡献的差异。结果显示:三大海湾空间地区海洋经济差异呈现先增大后减小趋势,2007年后呈现协调优化发展趋势;滨海旅游业、海洋交通运输和海洋油气业、海洋交通运输和海洋渔业分别对应辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾三大经济区的拉动效应较大,形成各具区域特色的重要优势海洋产业;据模型预测结果分析,到2015年辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾地区海洋经济比重将分别达到34%、21%、25%;莱州湾、渤海湾的海洋经济直接贡献率分别平均以2%和1%的速度递增,而辽东湾则平均以0.1%的速度递减,到2020年辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾的海洋经济直接贡献率将分别为36%、29%、46%。     

Sustainability Capacity Building Based on Educational Method： A Case Study on China and Sweden Joint Program

Environmental Education and Education for Sustainable Development （EE＆ESD） have been widely accepted as an effective educational method to contribute to capacity development and processes of change in developing countries. This paper takes SIDA supported EE＆ESD in formal educationadvanced international training program, China as an example. By analyzing and reflecting its orientation, implementation, outcomes and evaluation, experiences and lessons learned are expected to help improve the sorts of international cooperation capacity building programs both from international and also Chinese perspectives.     

On Index System and Quantitative Assessment of Eco-cities： A Case Study on Urban Agglomeration of the Yangtze Delta

Urban agglomeration of the Yangtze Delta （UAYD）, one of the most developed regions of China, has witnessed an increasing prevalence in building ecological cities when the ecological cities are pursued by many modem cities, and great achievements have been made in this regard. It is inevitable, however, that certain problems exist during the construction of ecological city, which include but not limited to non-harmonious development of urban complex ecosystem, and the difficulty in quantifying eco-city construction or incomplete quantification in assessing the construction of present and future eco-city. Based on the analysis on social-economic conditions and regional conditions of the UAYD, this paper attempts to set up an index system of eco-cities combining with local characteristics, and to adopt the indices of eco-city, urban harmony, and eco-city colligate to evaluate the ecological level, urban harmonious development and eco-city construction of cities within the UAYD. Results indicate that among 15 cities in UAYD, Suzhou City ranks the highest in terms of eco-city construction, whereas Nantong ranks relatively lower; sustainable eco-city construction is possible only when cities are developed in every respect of harmony.     

退耕还林(草)的生态补偿机制完善研究——以西部黄土高原地区为例

生态补偿措施是退耕还林（草）工程顺利进行的重要保障。以退耕还林（草）在黄土高原地区的实施情况为例，通过问卷调查，应用生态经济学的相关理论进行分析，认为应从以下几个方面完善退耕还林（草）工程的生态补偿机制：首先，建立退耕还林（草）的补偿组织体系；其次。以退耕还林（草）所造成的农民机会成本的损失来确定补偿标准。根据工程的进程和资金的投入情况．可将生态补偿划分为基本补偿、产业结构调整补偿和生态效益外溢补偿三个阶段；第三，根据产业结构调整取得显著成效所需的时间来确定补偿年限；最后提出退耕还林（草）的补偿方式及可能的资金渠道来源。生态补偿计量方法的研究将是今后研究的重点和难点。     

居民活动空间与生态约束协调的城市开发边界划定方法——以长沙市为例

为了遏制长沙市城市的无序扩张,促进土地节约集约、高效利用,保障生态空间质量,划定长沙市城市开发边界成为重要举措。基于居民活动空间扩展,选取人口密度、居民活动分布、基础设施布局等多源时空数据,通过量化居民活动空间扩展概率,并利用植被覆盖度构建生态约束强度,确定二者协调规则,作为CA模型的约束条件,进行城市建设用地模拟,划定城市开发边界。结果表明：划定的长沙市城市开发边界,结果与长沙市“十三五”规划的城市空间发展框架基本一致,对未来建设用地扩展方向预测合理,而且避免了侵占重要生态资源,达到了兼顾城市空间发展和生态资源保护的多重目的。