Economic and Political Factors that Lead to the Budget Deficit in Hong Kong from 1998 to 2003

Despite the adverse impact of the budget deficit in Hong Kong has been alleviated since the economic recovery from 2003, the fiscal deficit may return when there is another downturn in the economy if the problem is not handled fundamentally.Based on the economic and political situation from 1998 to 2003,the factors that lead to the budget deficit in Hong Kong are analyzed in four perspectives,including(a)increase in public expenditure;(b)decrease in public revenues;(c)poor management of public money and(d) weak administration.With a better understanding on these factors, possible solutions to the fiscal problem faced by the government may be developed.     

Externalities,Floating Population and Spatial Agglomeration

Abstract

With the further development of socialist market economy, the mobility of factor markets in China, especially the labor market, is strengthened. Externalities interacts with the agglomeration of productive factors. Under the framework of new economic geography, this article presents a theoretical model involving the endogenous population density affected by urban externalities. Results show that the population density is more concentrated around the center because the degree and extent of interaction between individuals intensifies when the distance from the center decreases. When there are several externalities resources, the aggregation of externalities changes the configuration of spatial factor allocation. These results fit well with the empirical facts about the decreasing density of floating population along the cities of Guangzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen in Guangdong Province which is situated in the eastern coast of the Pearl River Delta. We find that under the impacts of externalities released from Hong Kong into the coast, floating population was more concentrated around Shenzhen and Dongguan, which are more adjacent to Hong Kong compared with Guangzhou City.     

长江经济带高技术产业投入产出效率分析

提高长江经济带高技术产业的投入产出效率,有利于协调该区域经济发展与生态环境保护之间的关系。运用三阶段DEA方法,从企业类型、环境因素等视角对长江经济带高技术产业投入产出效率进行实证分析。结果发现,政府RD支出的增长对企业技术效率的提高均有正向作用,但作用效应尚未达到显著状态;研发机构数量的增加能够显著提高内资及港澳台企业的技术效率,而外资企业与中国技术市场的互动效应尚不显著;行业内企业数量增加所引致的市场竞争有利于外资企业提高技术效率,却显著降低了内资及港澳台企业的技术效率;不同类型企业之间和地区之间的技术效率存在较大差距,外资企业的技术效率和纯技术效率最高,内资企业的规模效率最高。文章最后提出政策建议。     

Economic Conditions,the Policy Cycle,and Media Visibility of Environmental Organizations

The extent to which social movements have access to the news media has important implications on the capability of social movements to communicate with and garner support from the public. Factors that shape movement organizations' media visibility thus deserve scholarly attention. This article deals with news coverage of environmental movement organizations (EMOs) in Hong Kong and focuses on the impact of economic conditions, the policy cycle, and the number of EMOs in society on media visibility of EMOs. Analysis of a data-set constructed based on archival data and official statistics illustrates that all three factors influence media visibility of EMOs through media attention to environmental issues, while the number of EMOs and economic conditions also affect media visibility of EMOs directly. In-depth interview data are then used to supplement the quantitative analysis by showing how movement activists perceive and respond strategically to the structural factors. Theoretical implications of the findings are discussed.     

Radioactivity in the atmosphere over Hong Kong

Upper-air radioactivity soundings have been regularly conducted in Hong Kong since 1994. A total of 38 soundings, measuring the vertical profile of radioactivity in the atmosphere over Hong Kong using on-board Geiger-Müeller tubes, were made during the period 1994-2003 in different seasons and weather conditions. This paper presents the data obtained in Hong Kong and compares the composite vertical profile with observations in other parts of the world. The average Pfotzer maximum over Hong Kong was found to be at an altitude of around 16.1km, lower than those observed at higher latitudes. The variations of the Pfotzer maximum with geomagnetic rigidity and solar activity are discussed. Seasonal and local weather effects on radioactivity in the lower atmosphere were also studied.     

Strategic environmental assessment in Hong Kong

This review examines the development and application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) process in the planning framework of Hong Kong. Two strategic planning case studies are evaluated within the context of SEA, namely the Territorial Development Strategy Review (TDS Review) and the Third Comprehensive Transport Study (CTS-3). Rapid population growth and urbanisation in Hong Kong, coupled with a historic lack of planning controls and inherent conflicts between government departments have been major obstacles to achieving sustainable development in the territory. Despite these challenges, Hong Kong was one of the first Asian countries to apply SEA to major development plans, where the implementation of the 'SUSDEV 21' study on sustainable development has demonstrated the government's commitment towards integrated environmental protection. The application of SEA has provided decision-makers with key information on potential environment impacts arising from proposed developments, resulting in greater accountability and transparency in the decision-making process. SEA in Hong Kong has also prompted an increased level of environmental awareness and co-operation between government departments and agencies responsible for the management of Hong Kong's natural and urban environments. However, the application of SEA in Hong Kong continues to have notable limitations. SEA needs to evolve beyond its current sectoral application to examine ways in which development decisions can not only pre-empt and prevent environmental damage, but also positively enhance and restore existing natural resources. Current land use plans and transportation strategies still largely determine the pattern of development in the near future without adequate longer-term environmental cost-benefit analysis. Sustainable development includes environmental, social and economic considerations, and these inter-related elements need be suitably balanced. SEA is not a means to obstruct development in Hong Kong, but should be recognised for its inherent socio-economic and ecological value, and fully integrated with the decision-making process. Whilst it is admirable that Hong Kong has taken positive steps in this direction, it is now an opportune moment for the government to have the foresight and tenacity to create a sustainable development framework for Hong Kong into the future.     

Estimating the total exposure to air pollutants for different population age groups in Hong Kong

Given that Hong Kong is one of the most densely populated cities in the world, the exposure of the Hong Kong people is one of the interesting research areas. In this study, an indirect approach was used to estimate the exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), respiratory dust (PM10) and carbon monoxide (CO) pollutants experienced by different age groups of people in Hong Kong. The average concentrations of the 20 major microenvironments obtained from our measurement survey data, together with the people activity pattern data obtained from 7-day recall questionnaires, were used to predict frequency distributions to exposure assessment. Our results showed that Hong Kong people spent more than 86% of their time indoors. Homes were shown to be the one of the major exposure sites to NO2, CO and PM10 for all age groups. Our results also indicate that the 24-h NO2 exposure for individuals, irrespective of age, spending more than 2 h in commuting daily, was observed to be exceeding the 24-h NO2 exposure standards. This study was one of the pioneering studies with valuable contribution for modeling the estimates of exposures to NO2, PM10 and CO of different age groups in Hong Kong.     

Mortality attributable to extreme temperatures in Spain: A comparative analysis by city

BackgroundThe Low Temperature Days (LTD) have attracted far less attention than that of High Temperature Days (HTD), though its impact on mortality is at least comparable. This lower degree of attention may perhaps be due to the fact that its influence on mortality is less pronounced and longer-term, and that there are other concomitant infectious winters factors. In a climate-change scenario, the studies undertaken to date report differing results. The aim of this study was to analyse mortality attributable to both thermal extremes in Spain's 52 provinces across the period 2000–2009, and estimate the related economic cost to show the benefit or “profitability” of implementing prevention plans against LTD.MethodsPrevious studies enabled us: to obtain the maximum daily temperature above which HTD occurred and the minimum daily temperature below which LTD occurred in the 52 provincial capitals analysed across the same study period; and to calculate the relative and attributable risks (%) associated with daily mortality in each capital. These measures of association were then used to make different calculations to obtain the daily mean mortality attributable to both thermal extremes. To this end, we obtained a summary of the number of degrees whereby the temperature exceeded (excess °C) or fell short (deficit °C) of the threshold temperature for each capital, and calculated the respective number of extreme temperatures days. The economic estimates rated the prevention plans as being 68% effective.ResultsOver the period considered, the number of HTD (4373) was higher than the number of LTD (3006) for Spain as a whole. Notwithstanding this, in every provincial capital the mean daily mortality attributable to heat was lower (3 deaths/day) than that attributable to cold (3.48 deaths/day). In terms of the economic impact of the activation of prevention plans against LTD, these could be assumed to avoid 2.37 deaths on each LTD, which translated as a saving of €0.29M. Similarly, in the case of heat, 2.04 deaths could be assumed to be avoided each day on which the prevention plan against HTD was activated, amounting to a saving of €0.25M. While the economic cost of cold-related mortality across the ten-year period 2000–2009 was €871.7M, that attributable to heat could be put at €1093.2M.ConclusionThe effect of extreme temperatures on daily mortality was similar across the study period for Spain overall. The lower number of days with LTD meant, however, that daily cold-related mortality was higher than daily heat-related mortality, thereby making prevention plans against LTD more “profitable” prevention plans against HTD in terms of avoidable mortality.     

城市建设用地扩张的区域差异及其驱动因素

中国城市建设用地规模随着工业化、城镇化的不断发展而日益剧增。受经济、社会等诸多驱动因素影响,各地建设用地扩张在时间维度、空间维度都存在明显的区域差异,对上述问题进行全面考察,有助于理清建设用地扩张的机理,促进土地集约、节约利用。将城市建设用地扩张的影响因素分为政府推动和市场拉动两个方面,采用基尼系数及基于半对数回归方程的Shapley值分解方法,考察了2006—2015年中国大陆31个省(市、自治区)城市建设用地扩张的区域差异及其驱动因素的贡献程度。结果表明:(1)2006—2015年,中国城市建设用地扩张的区域差异比较明显,衡量差异程度的基尼系数先升后降,最后稳定于0.3左右;(2)财政赤字率、经济政策执行力、经济增长、人口城镇化等因素对建设用地扩张具有正向驱动作用,产业结构调整、建设用地利用效率等因素对建设用地扩张具有负向驱动作用;(3)经济增长、财政赤字率、经济政策执行力等三个因素对建设用地扩张区域差异的贡献最大;(4)影响我国东、中、西三个区域建设用地扩张的主导因素不尽相同。为此,应从促进区域经济平衡发展、拓宽政府融资渠道、加快产业结构调整、提高建设用地利用效率等多方面入手,破解城市建设用地过度扩张的困局。     

Atmospheric radon in Hong Kong

For the first time in Hong Kong, atmospheric radon concentration was continuously monitored between November 2007 and October 2008. This paper presents the results obtained during the 12-month period. The annual mean atmospheric radon concentration in Hong Kong was found to be 9.3 Bq m⁻³ which was close to the level at neighbouring places like Guangdong and Taiwan. An estimation of the dose arising from atmospheric radon to the Hong Kong population was made. The meteorological effects on the variation of atmospheric radon concentration were discussed. It was found that the origin of the airmass and stability of the local atmosphere played vital roles in the seasonal and diurnal variations respectively, whereas precipitation caused abrupt changes in rainy days. An attempt was also made to find out the contribution of atmospheric radon to the ambient gamma dose rate.     

Mainstreaming of climate extreme risk into fiscal and budgetary planning: application of stochastic debt and disaster fund analysis in Austria

While ageing-related costs are perceived as the major drivers of fiscal pressure in the EU, concerns over climate-related public expenditures have received comparatively little attention in securing the EU’s long-term fiscal sustainability. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios as bridging concept for linking the assessment of public cost of demography- and climate-related expenditures, this study proposes a climate risk mainstreaming methodology. We apply a stochastic debt model and assess the potential flood risk in Austria to the public debt and the national disaster fund. Our results indicate that public debt under no fiscal consolidation is estimated to increase from the current level of 84.5% relative to GDP in 2015 to 92.1% in 2030, with macroeconomic variability adding further risk to the country’s baseline public debt trajectory. The study finds that the estimated public contingent liability due to expected flood risk is small relative to the size of economy. The existing earmarked disaster risk reduction (DRR) funding will likely reduce the risk of frequent-and-low impact floods, yet the current budgetary arrangement may be insufficient to deal with rising risk of extreme floods in the future. This prompts the need for further discussions regarding potential reforms of the disaster fund. As many EU member states are in the early stages of designing climate change policy strategies, the proposed method can support the mainstreaming of climate-related concerns into longer-term fiscal and budgetary planning.

     

Projected burden of disease for Salmonella infection due to increased temperature in Australian temperate and subtropical regions

ObjectiveThis study aimed to project the future disability burden of Salmonella infection associated with increased temperature in future in temperate and subtropical regions of Australia in order to provide recommendations for public health policy to respond to climate change.MethodsYears Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) were used as the measure of the burden of disease in this study. Regions in temperate and subtropical Australia were selected for this study. Future temperature change scenarios in the study were based on Australian projections, developed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO). YLDs for Salmonella infection in 2000 were calculated as the baseline data. YLDs for Salmonella infection in 2030 and 2050 under future temperature change scenarios were projected based on the quantitative relationship between temperature and disease examined in previously published regression models. Future demographic change was also considered in this analysis.ResultsCompared with the YLDs in 2000, increasing temperature and demographic changes may lead to a 9%–48% increase in the YLDs for Salmonella infection by 2030 and a 31%–87% increase by 2050 in the temperate region, and a 51%–100% increase by 2030 and an 87%–143% increase by 2050 in the subtropical region, if other factors remain constant.ConclusionTemperature-related health burden of Salmonella infection in Australia may increase in the future due to change in climate and demography in the absence of effective public health interventions. Relevant public health strategies should be developed at an early stage to prevent and reduce the health burden of climate change.     

Determinants on Rural-Urban Labor Migration in China: Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Rural Cooperate Medical Insurance based on Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Data

Abstract

This paper studies factors influencing rural-urban labor migration in China, particularly the implementation of rural cooperative medical insurance (RCMI) in the year 2003. With the support of data analysis from the year 2000, 2004 and 2006, clear linear correlations are found between gender, income, health condition and rural-urban labor flow, whereas the impact of education and employment status are more complicated. More importantly, results from regression show that the establishment of RCMI in countryside of China not only inhibits rural residents from seeking employment outside the village, but also pulls back rural people who have already worked in cities. When regional dimension is concerned, the pure composite effect of RCMI on rural labor flow is less significant in coastal areas with better economic performance and medical service.     

Historical evolution of human anthrax from occupational disease to potentially global threat as bioweapon

PurposeAnthrax is caused by Bacillus anthracis, which can naturally infect livestock, wildlife and occupationally exposed humans. However, for its resistance due to spore formation, ease of dissemination, persistence in the environment and high virulence, B. anthracis has been considered the most serious bioterrorism agent for a long time. During the last century anthrax evolved from limited natural disease to potentially global threat if used as bioweapon. Several factors may mitigate the consequences of an anthrax attack, including 1. the capability to promptly recognize and manage the illness and its public health consequences; 2. the limitation of secondary contamination risk through an appropriate decontamination; and 3. the evolution of genotyping methods (for microbes characterization at high resolution level) that can influence the course and/or focus of investigations, impacting the response of the government to an attack.MethodsA PubMed search has been done using the key words “bioterrorism anthrax”.ResultsOver one thousand papers have been screened and the most significant examined to present a comprehensive literature review in order to discuss the current knowledge and strategies in preparedness for a possible deliberate release of B. anthracis spores and to indicate the most current and complete documents in which to deepen.ConclusionsThe comprehensive analysis of the two most relevant unnatural anthrax release events, Sverdlovsk in the former Soviet Union (1979) and the contaminated letters in the USA (2001), shows that inhalational anthrax may easily and cheaply be spread resulting in serious consequences. The damage caused by an anthrax attack can be limited if public health organization, first responders, researchers and investigators will be able to promptly manage anthrax cases and use new technologies for decontamination methods and in forensic microbiology.     

Monitoring of emissions from selected trades and industries in Hong Kong

A survey on the concentration of organic and inorganic compounds emitted from various trades and industries in Hong Kong was performed to indicate the level of pollutants occuring in the factories, in the stacks and their dispersion into the environment. The results indicate that none of the organic or inorganic compounds present in the workplace exceed the TLV value for the factories during the visit in the two years period of study. However, the concentration of the chemistry compounds in the stack are found to be very high, with NH₃ and HCl exceeding the emission limits. As the dispersion of pollutants in a highly populated place like Hong Kong is an important concern, the effect of prominent stationary sources on the nearby population were investigated qualitatively to establish their contribution to the pollution level at the receptor site in addition to the background pollutant level. Due to the lack of input meteorological data and the highly complex topology around most sites amongst high-rise buildings in Hong Kong, it is difficult to use advanced computer model dealing with complex terrain. Instead, a simple impaction formula was tested for its applicability in Hong Kong. The results indicate an over estimation of the experimental value. Nevertheless, it could be used to provide a rough estimate of the upper limit of the pollutant concentration at given receptor sites. The feasibility of assessing the contribution or different stationary sources to the particulate collected at given receptor sites was studied and work is in progress to obtain a more comprehensive pollutant data inventory for the above assessment.     

A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Growth: A Case Study for Jinan Municipality,China

Abstract

China is experiencing a process of rapid industrialization and urbanization at the cost of agricultural land and environment, particularly in the costal areas. This study takes Jinan as a case presenting a time-series analysis of urban land expansion from 313 to 2003. The results show that the urban expansion of Jinan city mainly took place in the last 100 years, especially after the economic reform in 1978. Social development and economic growth, urban population growth and migration policies were factors driving the urban land expansion. Urban sprawl resulted in a disappearance of wetlands and a great loss of agricultural land, and over-pumping of ground water that led to disappearance of the city's feature, namely “the city of springs”.     

Assessment of environmental tobacco smoke and respirable suspended particle exposures for nonsmokers in Hong Kong using personal monitoring

One hundred and ninety-four randomly selected nonsmoking subjects collected air samples in their breathing zone by wearing personal monitors for 24 h. The study was centered in Hong Kong, and comprised housewives in one group, primarily for assessing exposures in the home, and office workers in a second group to assess the contribution of the workplace to overall exposure. Samples collected were analysed for respirable suspended particles (RSP), nicotine, 3-ethenylpyridine, and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) particles using ultraviolet absorbance (UVPM), fluorescence (FPM), and solanesol measurements (SolPM). Saliva cotinine analyses were also undertaken to confirm the nonsmoking status of the subjects and to investigate their correlation with ETS exposure measurements. Approximately 6% of the subjects in Hong Kong misclassified their nonsmoking status. Median time-weighted average (TWA) RSP concentrations varied from 43 to 54 μg m⁻³ with no significant differences detected between any of the groups investigated. Office workers who lived and worked with smokers were exposed to 2.6 μg m⁻³ ETS particles (SolPM) and 0.44 μg m⁻³ nicotine, based on median TWA concentrations. Median concentrations of ETS particles and nicotine were below the limits of quantification for housewives living with smokers and were not significantly different from those for housewives living with nonsmokers. It would therefore be unreliable in Hong Kong to use a smoking spouse as a marker for assessing health risks related to ETS exposure. The office workers in this study were significantly more exposed to ETS than housewives from either smoking or nonsmoking homes, and the workplace was estimated to contribute over 33% of the annual exposure to ETS particles and nicotine. Exposure estimates suggest that the most highly exposed office workers in this study receive between 11 and 50 cigarette equivalents per year, based upon upper decile levels for ETS particles and nicotine, respectively.     

Chemical contamination of the East River (Dongjiang) and its implication on sustainable development in the Pearl River Delta

A recent survey reveals that water quality and river sediments of Dongjiang (the East River) have been mildly contaminated by heavy metals and organic chemicals, such as copper, lead, PCBs, PAHs and HCHs. According to photogrammertic surveys, the sources of contamination are closely related to human activities, such as domestic and industrial discharges, agricultural chemical applications and soil erosion due to deforestation. The level of water and sediment contamination is most serious at the mid-river section near the urban of Weizhou. Due to natural dilution and diffusion, the levels of contamination are slightly decreased at the medium low section of the River near Qiaotou and Matan. Nevertheless, the levels of contamination increase again in the lower river section near Shenzhen, which is a highly developed economic zone. Since Dongjiang is the major source of potable water supply for Hong Kong (nearly 80% of potable water of Hong Kong is abstracted from Dongjiang) and the other parts of the Pearl River Delta (PRD), such organic and inorganic pollution merit concern. Ironically, most of the industrial and commercial activities in the watershed of Dongjiang are business investments of Hong Kong citizens. Cross-border environmental efforts should be enhanced with collaboration of different jurisdictions to achieve targets of regional sustainability.     

Spatial effect of environmental regulation measures on industrial structure upgrading from the empirical analysis of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the spatial effect of environmental regulation measures on the upgrading of industrial structure in the integrated development strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas. In order to reflect the effect of the environmental regulation and different regulation measures more truly, this paper constructs indices of the environmental regulation measures through the results of policy texts quantification. On the basis of the previous research, this paper divides environmental regulation into the following types: personnel and administrative measures of command and control; market-oriented fiscal, taxation, financial and other economic measures; guidance measures. Spatial panel regression results show that administrative measures of command control and market-oriented fiscal measures have a significant role in promoting regional industrial structure upgrading, but not conducive to the advancement of the industrial structure of adjacent areas. Their roles in promoting and inhibition are counteracted, which causes the total effect of industrial structure upgrading of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding areas are not significant. Personnel measures, financial measures, other economic measures and guidance measures do not have the short-term effect and spatial effect on the upgrading of industrial structure.