Empirically Analysis of the CO2 Emissions Embodied in Exports of China

In this paper,using the input-output model,the author first calculated the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China in 2002 and 2007.Then,the author empirically analyzed problems existing in the composition of exported products and analyzed its possible reasons.The research results of this paper are as follows:Since China’s entry into WTO,the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China have been increasing rapidly;the value of exported products of high-carbon emissions industries accounts for a relatively higher proportion to China’s total exports value because China’s carbon intensive products have a certain competitive advantage.Additionally,this paper has put forward relevant suggestions based on these results.     

基于LMDI方法的中国国际贸易隐含碳分解

对国际贸易产生环境影响的定量研究正日益受到关注,特别是对隐含碳的研究.以中国2005年为例,对中国国际贸易隐含碳进行估算,应用对数平均D氏指数法(LMDI)对影响隐含碳净转移的因素进行分解分析.结果显示中国因生产排放碳量远大于其消费需要排放的碳量,从国外净转移到中国的隐含碳为395.66MtC;净转移隐含碳影响因素中强度效应(进出口商品完全碳排放系数差异)贡献率为60%,规模效应(进出额差异)贡献率为55%,结构效应(进出口结构差异)贡献率为-14%,此结果表明中国相比国外的高碳排放强度是造成目前碳转移额外增加的主要因素,分析结构效应发现中国主要净出口行业大部分不是高碳排放强度行业,而净进口行业却主要由高碳排放强度行业构成,特别是与碳排放密切相关的能源行业居净进口行业首位.     

Economic Analysis of CO2 Emission Trends in China

Climate change is one of hot spots all around the world. China, the second biggest CO₂ emitter, is facing increasingly severe pressure to reduce CO₂ emission. The article first describes Kaya Identity and its policy implications. Second, it uses the modified Kaya Identity and makes decomposition without residues on CO₂ emission during the period 1971-2005. Taking into account the changes of macroeconomic background, it conducts a detailed analysis in terms of CO₂ emission trend from 4^th Five Year Plan through 10^th Five Year Plan. The decomposition results indicate that economic development and increase in population are major driving forces, and that improvement in energy efficiency contributes to the reduction of CO₂ emission, and that decarbonization in primary energy structure is also an important strategic choice. Finally, the article stresses that in CO₂ order to realize the binding target of 20% reduction in GDP energy intensity during the 11^th Five Year Plan, China should speed up the readjustment of the industrial structure and energetically develop the energy-efficient technologies and clean fuel technology, which will effectively promote the country to reduce CO₂ emission and contribute to the mitigation of climate change.     

中国出口隐含碳增长的影响因素分析

作为"世界加工厂",我国排放的CO2很大一部分是隐含在出口产品中由国外消费的,了解我国出口隐含碳排放增长的影响因素对于制定合理的气候政策具有重要意义。本文采用投入产出法和结构分解分析,计算了我国出口贸易隐含碳排放增长的影响因素。结果表明:中国出口隐含碳排放从1997到2005年增加了14.64亿t(202%),其中出口量的上升是推动其增长的主要因素,它的贡献高达237%;生产结构和出口结构的变化分别使之增长了65%和5%;排放强度的降低只抵消了105%。其中对出口隐含碳排放增长影响最大的五个部门是:电子及通信设备制造业、化学工业、纺织业、仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业和电气机械及器材制造业,最后针对测算结果提出政策建议。     

Predicting CO2 and SO2 emissions in the Baltic States through reorganization of energy infrastructure

The paper deals with predicting carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions generated by power production sector in the Baltic States in period up to year 2020. The economies of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are rapidly growing therefore forecast of emissions related with this occurrence becomes very important. The Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP), one of the largest in the world, is situated in the region. Two power production scenarios are modelled to investigate changes in power sector's emissions expected as the consequences of the coming closure of Ignalina NPP. Power market was assumed to be common for all three Baltic countries and was modelled by applying the Balmorel model. The planned closure of Ignalina NPP will bring restructuring of Lithuania power production sector and will change also power transmission between countries. Predictive identified the potential of investments for new modern power generation technologies. At the same time, modelling results show in both scenarios that CO(2) and SO(2) emissions from power production in the Baltic region will increase. The increment of emissions is discussed in the context of meeting requirements of UNFCCC Kyoto protocol and EC Directives. Despite of CO(2) emissions increase the Kyoto protocol's requirements may be expected. At the same time, SO(2) formation in Lithuania power sector may exceed the limits of the EU Council Directive 2001/80/EB therefore the additional measures to control SO(2) emissions have to be investigated.     

中国国际贸易隐含碳文献比较研究

贸易中的隐含碳流动对中国的二氧化碳排放具有重要影响。从现有的文献来看,尽管出现了大量的针对中国贸易中隐含碳的相关研究,但由于数据及方法的不同,结果之间存在较大差异,很大程度上影响了研究结果的科学性和应用价值。本文对现有的中国国际贸易隐含碳文献进行了比较研究,结果发现:不同研究得出了相对一致的结论,但在隐含碳的具体数量上差异巨大。定性来看,中国是一个隐含碳净出口国,净出口量呈现出逐年增加的趋势。定量来看,1997-2007年,中国隐含碳出口量从3.1-8.8亿t增长到17.2-30.2亿t二氧化碳;隐含碳进口量从1.0-7.0亿t增长到5.8-16.5亿t二氧化碳;隐含碳净出口量从1.8-7.3亿t增长到11.4-22.6亿t二氧化碳;隐含碳净出口量占国内总排放量的比重由5%-20%增长到17%-30%。贸易中隐含碳核算结果的不确定性主要来自三个方面:核算方法产生的不确定性、数据融合产生的不确定性以及原始数据引入的不确定性。总体来看,多区域投入产出模型的研究结果相对稳定,可重复性较高;从数据精度和数据可获得性方面考虑,40个左右的部门分类可以取得较为理想的结果:把中国划分为多个区域研究国际贸易中的隐含碳在理论上更加可靠。国家气候变化对外谈判和国内减排目标的实现都需要对碳排放进行精确管理。在未来的研究中,应重视隐含碳核算的不确定性研究,逐步提高隐含碳核算的精度,更好地服务于国家的气候变化政策。     

最终需求拉动下的CO2排放驱动因素研究:1997-2007

我国要实现在哥本哈根会议上承诺的减排目标,有赖于正确判断相关因素对我国CO2排放的影响强度和作用机理.减排目标的实现受诸多因素的影响,从生产层面到消费层面,从结构因素到效率因素都有涉及.本文从最终需求的视角,同时考虑生产和消费的影响因素,运用投入产出模型和对数平均Divisia指数分解法,考察了1997-2002、2002 - 2007年两个时段相关影响因素的变化对总排放变化的总贡献和部门贡献.研究结果表明,最终需求总量的不断增长是拉动总排放增加的主要驱动因素,重化工部门能耗强度的降低是促进减排的主要驱动因素;化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、非金属矿物制品业部门中间投入技术的变动是影响总技术效应的主要部门因素;能耗结构、产业结构和消费构成的变化所技动的减排效应量波动状态.文章提出减排不仅要从生产层面更要从消费层面下功夫,不仅要提高技术效率还要注重调整结构.     

CO_2 Emissions Embodied in China-U.S.Trade

After the Kyoto Protocol was implemented, carbon leakage exerts great influences on international trade and economy. Trade creates a mechanism for consumers to shift environmental pollution associated with their consumption to other countries. China has overtaken the U.S. as the world＇s biggest CO2 emitter since 2006. As China＇s second largest trade partner, the U.S. has the biggest trade deficit with China which has aroused a lot of disputes between the two parties. But so far the assessments of the trade imbalance of China-U.S. have paid little attention to environmental impacts associated with the trade imbalance. Applied an input-output approach, the article estimates the amount of CO2 embodied in China-U.S. trade during 1997-2007. It was found that through trade with China, the U.S. reduced its CO2 emissions compared with a non-trade scenario. Due to the greater carbon-intensity and relatively less efficient production processes of Chinese industry, China-U.S. trade resulted in more CO2 emissions in China and the world. In the end, the article gives some suggestions： it is equal and sustainable that the international accounting methodologies should be improved, for CO2 emissions responsibility must be designed to account for the dynamic nature of international trade.     

中国西北寒旱区农牧民生活碳排放评估

围绕碳排放权开展的气候谈判愈来愈关注贫困人口与弱势群体的生存权与发展权,一方面由于受制于其薄弱的社会经济水平,贫困人口与弱势群体在气候变化实践中表现出更高的脆弱性,另一方面则因气候变化减缓与适应行动而造成的贫困人口生活成本的增加以及生活水平的下降。然而,对这些地区和人口的排放权判断主要基于国家层面和地区层面宏观数据的分析,其结果掩盖了国家和地区内部不同社会经济水平下的人口排放差异,不能准确揭示贫困人口和脆弱群体的低碳排放事实。本文基于国际碳排放评估对人口生活排放的需求,结合IPCC参考方法,利用投入产出分析模型构建了人口生活碳排放评价指标体系,并用于对甘肃、青海和宁夏干旱-高寒地区农牧民生活碳排放的样本调查和分析。评估表明,中国西北干旱—高寒区人口生活碳排放仅为1.85tCO2/人,其中用于满足基本生活需要的碳排放量达到87.25%。研究发现,生活在更冷(海拔更高)区域内的人口生活排放量更高;随着家庭收入的增长,人口生活排放量也随之上升;家庭成员数量越多,家庭的人均碳排放量就会越低。     

贸易隐含污染物测算及结构绿色转型研究

该文根据中国2002年和2007年非竞争型投入产出表、OECD的国外投入产出表和GTAP Version 7.0的CO2排放强度等数据,利用多国投入产出模型方法测算了中国对外贸易中隐含污染物,分析了贸易隐含污染物的行业结构分布以及在主要贸易伙伴国中的贸易流向,并通过结构分解方法分析了出口规模总量、出口结构变化、投入产出表中间结构变化及单位产值CO2排放量四大因素对出口贸易隐含CO2的贡献。研究结果表明:2002-2007年间,我国对外贸易创造了巨大贸易顺差,同时也带来了大量隐含CO2、SO2顺差,2002年和2007年贸易隐含CO2顺差达6.21×108t和1.38×109t。2002年和2007年贸易隐含SO2顺差分别为323.99万t和674.54万t;出口贸易规模的扩大使我国出口贸易隐含CO2大幅增加,带来了巨大的环境压力,且出口贸易结构、投入产出中间结构变化也增加了出口贸易隐含CO2的排放。但是单位产值的CO2排放量的降低对抑制隐含CO2增长值发挥了十分重要作用,故需要进一步优化贸易结构,调整产业结构,提高能源利用效率,也就是贸易结构绿色转型势在必行。     

A laboratory study on CO2 emission from asphalt binder and its reduction with the use of warm mix asphalt

Oxidation of hydrocarbon in asphalt binder leads to the production of carbon dioxide (CO₂) during the production of hot mix asphalt. The objective of this laboratory study was to investigate the effects of the asphalt additive Sasobit^®, asphalt content and mixing/placement temperature on CO₂ emissions from binder with laboratory measurements. The isolated effects of Sasobit on asphalt absorption into the aggregate were also looked at. Temperature was found to be the only statistically significant factor on emissions. This would suggest that warm mix asphalt technology, which employs the use of Sasobit in asphalt mixtures, is a very effective way of lowering the industry's CO₂ emission impact, both directly and by the use of less energy for heating. This work predicts that greater than 30% reduction of CO₂ emissions is possible with typically used levels of Sasobit.     

能源消费、经济增长与中国CO2排放量变化

基于我国能源消费和经济增长特点,采用对数平均的Divisa方法对我国1990~2007年的CO2排放进行分解分析。结果表明：经济增长效应是我国CO2排放增加的主要因素,能源强度效应是抑制CO2排放的主要原因,人口效应和结构效应对碳排放的影响不大。分地区的研究表明：东部地区的经济发展和能源强度效应对CO2排放量的影响高于中西部地区,人口效应使东部地区碳排放增加,使中西部地区碳排放降低,能源利用结构变化对东部地区的碳排放有一定的抑制作用,对中西部地区的影响较小。因此,要降低我国的CO2排放,需要针对地区特点制定不同的政策,东部地区需要进一步提升技术水平,进而提高能源利用效率,对中西部地区需要逐步改善以煤为主的能源消费结构,提高清洁能源比重,同时调整产业结构,发展服务业和技术含量高的低能耗制造业。     

中国碳排放变动的因素分解分析

随着中国经济的快速发展,能源消费的急剧增长以及以煤为主的能源结构在短期内难以改变,中国一次能源消费的碳排放总量不断增长.本文基于广义费雪指数(GFI)方法,建立中国人均碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析 2000-2008年间,能源结构、能源效率和经济发展等因素的变化对中国人均碳排放的影响.该方法较之拉氏指数和D氏指数分解法,克服了它们的缺点,更好的消除了分解的残差项,得到的结果更加精确.分析表明:经济发展对拉动中国人均碳排放的贡献率呈指数增长,而能源效率对抑制中国人均碳排放的贡献率呈倒“U”型,并且其抑制作用当前有增强趋势,能源结构的抑制作用依然微弱.能源效率和能源结构对碳排放的抑制作用难以抵消由经济发展拉动的中国人均碳排放量增长.本文得到当前能源效率因素对碳排放的抑制作用正逐渐增强,而能源结构因素对碳排放的抑制作用依然微弱,这与以往的结果不同.为了考察各种因素对中国能源消费碳排放影响的长期规律性,本文首次拟合了各种影响因素的瞬时变化率特征,进一步反映出各影响因素的动态演进过程.     

Decomposition of Energy-related CO2 Emissions from Shanghai＇s Industries and Policy Implications

This paper quantifies a decomposition analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in the industrial sectors of Shanghai over the period 1994-2007.The Log-Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method is applied to this study in terms of six factors:labor force,labor mobility,gross labor productivity,energy intensity,fuel mix,and emission coefficient.In addition,the decoupling effect between industrial economic growth and CO2 emissions is analyzed to evaluate CO2 mitigation strategies for Shanghai.The results show that all labor productivity has the largest positive effect on CO2 emission changes in the industrial sectors,whereas labor mobility and energy intensity are the main components for decreasing CO2 emissions.Other factors have different effects on CO2 mitigation in different sub-periods.Although a relative decoupling of industrial CO2 emissions from the economic growth in Shanghai has been found,Shanghai should keep pace with the industrial CO2 emissions reduction by implementing low-carbon technology.These results have important policy implications:Plan C is the reasonable choice for Shanghai.     

Analysis of interprovincial trade embodied carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding provinces: based on constructed MRIO Model

The interprovincial trade embodied carbon emissions plays an important role in the national emission reduction target among China’s provinces. Furthermore, it will affect the smooth start-up of the national carbon trade market as well as the implementation of targets in 2030 for dealing with the climate change. Based on constructed MRIO model, this paper analyzes the embodied carbon emission trade flows among Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The results indicate that six provinces have formed different patterns of carbon trade balance, where Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces are in a deficit position, while the other three provinces are in a surplus position. Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei have transferred part of the carbon emissions to the other three provinces, which shows greater heterogeneity among various provinces and provincial different sectors. On basis of the conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions on provincial decomposition, responsibility distribution, and provincial collaborative reduction for national emission reduction targets.     

我国减缓碳排放的近期形势与远期趋势分析

近3年来我国面临GDP能源强度呈上升趋势，能源消费及相应CO2排放增长对世界减缓碳排放的形势产生了更大影响的新的形势，从长远发展趋势看，我国当前由于工业特别是重化工业在国民经济结构中急剧增加引起的GDP能源强度阶跃性增长将随产业结构的稳定两平缓，并且随产业结构的优化和产业技术升级及高附加值产品比例提高而再度呈持续稳定下降的趋势。我国在现代化道路中与发达国家的历程相比，可以走更为节约能源和减少CO2排放的道路。但由于中国人口众多，和平发展的规模大、速度快，而且时间比发达国家滞后半个世纪以上，我国为实现现代化所必需的能源消费和CO2排放的增长会对全球的碳排放增长产生重大影响。这将使我国未来经济发展面临极为不利的外部环境。     

城市产业部门CO2排放三层次核算研究

城市是人类生产和生活的中心,超过75%的温室气体从城市产生,其中又以城市产业部门能源消费和工业过程非能源产生的CO2为主。本文基于投入产出模型,评价城市产业部门3个不同层次的CO2排放。以重庆为案例,核算其2002-2008年产业部门三个层次的CO2排放,包括能源消费直接排放、购买电力间接排放和全生命周期排放,并进行多层次对比。结果显示传统能源消耗和购买电力为对象的核算方法低估了产业部门CO2排放水平。2002-2008年,重庆各产业部门排放量逐年增加,碳排放强度整体呈现下降趋势。煤炭开采和洗选业、非金属矿采选业、非金属矿物制品业、电力、热力的生产和供应业,化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、交通运输、仓储及邮电通讯业部门共7大行业是重庆碳排放的重点行业。部门交通设备制造业是重庆的优势产业,排放总量大,但是排放强度却相对较小,因此应大力发展该产业以促进重庆市低碳经济的发展。     

经济增长、国际贸易与污染排放的关系研究——基于美国和中国SO2排放的实证分析

在世界经济一体化进程中,国际贸易成为影响各国环境污染变化的重要因素,将其纳入经济增长与环境污染间关系的分析框架是环境学界关注的一个重要问题。本文基于联立方程模型,从经济产出、污染排放、污染治理和国际贸易等四个方面探讨了经济增长与污染排放的相互作用机理,并以美国、中国SO2排放为例进行了实证研究。结果表明:污染排放对经济产出有影响,且对美国和中国分别为正作用和负作用。经济增长增加了两国国内污染排放,且中国增加的相对更多。而污染治理均减少了国内污染排放,美、中的污染减排弹性系数分别为-0.277和-0.417。国际贸易对美国起到污染减排作用,对中国的影响不显著,考虑到贸易对中国经济增长的拉动作用,其经济规模间接污染效应不容忽视。对于中国而言,加大污染治理投资、改善贸易进出口状况、降低经济发展过程中的污染排放是实现经济与环境协调发展的有效途径。     

城市家庭碳排放影响因素与跨城市差异分析

我国城市化发展既提高了城市居民收入水平同时又增加了碳排放.本文使用56个城市的微观家庭数据,在各个城市层面上建立不同类型能源消耗的行为方程,对包含固定收入、家庭规模和户主年龄的标准家庭居住碳排放进行有效的估算,同时对跨城市差异进行分析解释.结果表明,在以标准家庭居住碳排放为唯一衡量标准时,东川市和蚌埠市是碳排放最少的城市,而新乡市与郑州市则是碳排放最多的城市,很多低排放城市位于秦岭-淮河南北分界线的南侧,大城市排放要高于中小城市.通过对城市收入弹性的估算,发现相对富裕的家庭会增加消耗清洁燃料.一个家庭从低排放城市移动到高排放城市造成的环境成本占家庭年均收入的6.6％,同时低密度城市发展模式以及具有严寒气候的城市都会增加居住碳排放.这些实证研究结果可以辅助城市规划和城市管理者进行“低碳城市”或“低碳生活模式”等相关政策的制定.     

Analysis of methanol and organometallic MnO2 fuels as alternative fuels in a diesel engine

In this study, methanol and organometallic MnO₂ fuels were used to improve the properties of diesel fuel. In addition, the effect of methanol fuel on engine oil and a piston ring was also examined experimentally in a four-cylinder, direct injection diesel engine running at 200 bar. Three different diesel fuels were prepared by adding 5, 10 and 15% methanol to diesel fuel. In order to prevent phase separation, 1% dodecanol was added to the mixture. Organometallic compounds of manganese were synthesised to prepare the solutions. The most effective amount and performance of anti-freeze were determined. From the results, it was observed that carbon monoxide emissions decreased and NOx emissions increased with the increase in the amount of methanol. On the other hand, organometallic MnO₂ increased the cetane number and decreased the freezing point, viscosity and flame temperature.