Certainty and uncertainty in understanding global warming

Global warming has greatly concerned the whole world.Owing to the limitation we currently have,it is still difficult to completely understand the mechanism and physical science of climate change.Now both certainty and uncertainty coexist in the understanding of climate warming.This paper aims to summarize certainties and uncertainties in climate-warming studies,which focus on seven key problems related to human activities,namely,global warming,atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases,relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming,climate models,future climate change,2?warming threshold and tipping point in the Earth's system.We should comprehensively take into account the level of certainty and uncertainty in our understanding of climate change while adapting to and mitigating global warming and adjusting our industrial structures accordingly.This would allow us to respond to change with certainty,while avoiding the risks associated with uncertainty.     

长三角地区能源消费与区域发展相互关系及其影响因素

以长三角地区上海、江苏和浙江3省市为研究对象,运用Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型（VEC）和Granger因果检验等方法分析能源消费与经济发展的相互关系,并利用LMDI方法对3省市1995~2007年的能源强度进行分解分析,得到能源消费与区域发展关系的影响因素。结果表明：近年来长三角能源消费形势严峻,并较多地受到产业结构调整的影响。上海和江苏的能源消费在一定程度上拉动了经济发展,但是随着产业结构的调整,上海工业结构的调整促进了能源强度降低,而江苏却正好相反。近年来,浙江省的经济发展对能源消费的影响比较显著,随着该省工业规模扩大,能源强度有所升高,但是其产业结构的调整有利于降低能源强度。     

中国水资源管理适应气候变化的研究综述

以全球变暖为特征的气候变化已成为当今科学界、各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的最重要议题之一。气候变化对水资源管理的影响是具有重要学术价值的新兴研究方向,目前的重点研究领域主要包括:气候变化背景下水资源综合管理方式与集成研究,气候变化下水资源适应性管理机制,中国面临的水资源均衡性管理,公众参与水资源适应性管理的政策制定,对减缓措施与水资源可持续发展的认识。主要的研究方法包括:适应气候变化的定性分析方法(多尺度适应综合分析方法)、成本效益分析方法等。适应性管理是目前应对气候变化伴随的不确定性问题的有效策略,未来应在分析中国各流域水资源不确定性问题的基础上,建立气候变化情景下适应气候变化的水资源适应性管理体制机制。     

Brazil’s Amazonian forest carbon: the key to Southern Amazonia’s significance for global climate

Southern Amazonia is the first region of Brazil’s Amazon area to be exposed to intensive conversion to agriculture and ranching. This conversion emits greenhouse gases from the carbon stock in the biomass and soils of the previous vegetation. Quantifying these carbon stocks is the first step in quantifying the impact on global warming from this conversion. This review is limited to information on Brazilian Amazonia’s carbon stocks. It indicates large amounts of carbon at risk of emission in both biomass and soils, as well as considerable uncertainty in estimates. Reducing uncertainty is a priority for research but the existence of uncertainty must not be used as an excuse for delaying measures to contain deforestation. The magnitude of carbon stocks is proportional to greenhouse gas emissions per hectare of deforestation and consequently to impact on global climate.

     

水库温室效应研究进展与主要影响因素分析

温室气体排放导致的全球变暖成为世界各国关注的焦点。目前,关于淡水水库的温室效应在全球气候变化中的作用也成为了科学家争论的问题。已有的研究表明,世界上很多为水力发电或其他目的建造的水库,因水库蓄水所导致土壤和植被的淹没而额外增加碳基温室气体二氧化碳（CO2）和甲烷（CH4）的释放。通过对国内外关于淡水水库温室气体研究方面文献的归纳,综述分析了水库温室效应观测研究案例、〖JP2〗水库温室气体的产生机制、排放过程及其主要影响因素等方面的研究进展。为进一步从事水库温室气体研究、把握水库温室气体排放提供参考     

对当前全球气候变化问题的思考

全球气候变化问题已经超越了一般环境问题的范畴,而成为国际政治经济外交关系的重要考虑因素。随着《京都议定书》的实施以及气候变化问题谈判进程的加快．对我国未来经济社会发展提出了挑战。文章分析认为．要求主要发展中国家承诺减限排义务的压力与日俱增,而我国开始进入工业化中期．应对气候变化问题的能力还比较薄弱。因此．提出应对全球气候变化问题的一些思考：（1）充分认识全球气候变化问题的重要性和严峻性,准确把握国际谈判进程;（2）加快制定适应和减缓气候变化的国家战略。采取适合我国国情的有力措施积极应对气候变暖;（3）加强气候变化领域的能力建设．提高我国参与全球气候变化活动的能力;（4）充分利用国际合作机制,提高我国应对气候变化的技术水平与经济能力。     

Impacts of climate change on lakes and reservoirs dynamics and restoration policies

Meteorological-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes and their water quality; these impacts can be hydrologic, thermal, hydraulic, chemical, biochemical, or ecological. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (California–Nevada) was investigated here as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within lakes. The already published trends of meteorological variables were used to assess the effects of global warming on Lake Tahoe dynamics. Records from the period 1969–2002 show that Lake Tahoe has became warmer and more stable. A series of simulation years into the future (i.e., 2000–2040) was established using flows, loads, and meteorology data sets for the period 1994–2004. Results of 40-year simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable, and mixing is reduced. Possible changes in water quality because of global warming are discussed through inference, although these are not specifically simulated. Many existing problems may be exacerbated due to climate change, yet extreme uncertainty depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change. Therefore, shifts in water quality and quantity due to climate change should be integrated into contemporary planning and management in an adaptive manner, and the research and development of impact assessment methodology should focus on approaches that can handle extreme uncertainty. The general alternatives for lake management due to climate change are discussed. Depending on the specific case, further intensive research is suggested to restore lake water quality.     

Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

Ideologies Overruled? An Explorative Study of the Link Between Ideology and Climate Change Reporting in Dutch and French Newspapers

This article studies the relationship between the ideology of newspapers and their climate change coverage. Previous research has focused on the British press (Carvalho, 2007; Carvalho & Burgess, 2005). Our research broadens this scope to the French and Dutch media. The results show that the ideology of newspapers in the Netherlands is not related to climate change coverage, while in France the ideology of newspapers is related to some key aspects of climate change coverage, i.e., the presentation of the necessity of actions against climate change and the tone of climate change coverage. The findings suggests that ideological cultures play a role in the coverage of climate change in countries in which global warming has brought about much discussion in the political field and that are characterized by a highly competitive media landscape which is historically related to the political field.     

甲烷排放与应对气候变化国家战略探析

甲烷的全球变暖潜势是二氧化碳的72倍(20年水平),但其在大气中的寿命短于二氧化碳,可以作为优先减排对象。中国的甲烷排放十分突出,甲烷减排在应对气候变化国家战略中具有重要的基础性地位,然而在政策研究中,甲烷受到的关注程度远低于二氧化碳。本文基于甲烷排放研究的相关进展,首次系统性地论述了中国甲烷排放与应对气候变化国家战略之间的关系。主要结论是:甲烷排放的有效控制和减缓可以成为中国温室气体减排的重要组成部分,甲烷等温室气体的减排战略要用"系统减排"思路替代传统的"末端减排"思路;甲烷系统减排的策略和实施措施不仅需要重视主要排放部门(如煤炭开采与洗选业,农业)的直接末端减排,更需要突出强调建设活动、城市消费、资本投资和出口贸易等消费端的间接体现减排;在国际气候谈判中通过纳入甲烷排放,可以至少在五个方面丰富和支撑中国的国家立场,如从承诺"单位GDP二氧化碳减排"向承诺"单位GDP温室气体减排"转变。     

The adaptive capacity of institutions in Canada,Argentina, and Chile to droughts and floods

Regional Environmental Change - The increasing evidence of global warming calls on all states to enhance their adaptive capacity to deal with climate change. This paper compares the adaptive...     

How Grammatical Choice Shapes Media Representations of Climate (Un)certainty

Although mass media continue to play a key role in translating scientific uncertainty for public discourse, communicators of climate science are becoming increasingly aware of their own role in shaping scientific messages in the news. As an example of how future media research can provide relevant feedback to climate communicators, the present study examines the ways in which grammatical and word choices represent and construct uncertainty in news reporting about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Qualifying and hedging language and other “epistemic markers” are analyzed in four newspapers during 2001 and 2007: the New York Times and Wall Street Journal from the USA and El País and El Mundo from Spain. Though the US newspapers contained a higher density of epistemic markers and used more ambiguous grammatical constructs of uncertainty than the Spanish newspapers, all four media sources chose similar words when questioning the certainty around climate change. Moreover, the density of epistemic markers in each newspaper either remained the same or increased with time, despite ever-growing scientific agreement that human activities modify global climate. While the US newspapers increasingly adopted IPCC language to describe climate uncertainties, they also exhibited an emerging tendency to construct uncertainty by highlighting differences between IPCC reports or between scientific predictions and observations. The analysis thus helps identify articulations of uncertainty that will shape future media portrayals of climate science across varying cultural and national contexts.     

Climate change and human health in Latin America: drivers, effects, and policies

Many people would be increasingly affected by living under critical conditions in Latin America if, as expected, global warming aggravates disease and pest transmission processes. Heat waves and air pollution would increase heat-related diseases and illness episodes in large cities. Fire smoke has been associated with irritation of the throat, lung and eyes, and respiratory problems. Climate extreme increases associated with climate change would cause physical damage, population displacement, and adverse effects on food production, freshwater availability and quality. It would also increase the risks of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Climate change impacts the geographical range, seasonality, and the incidence rate of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria. Climate-related ecological changes may expand cholera transmission, particularly among populations in low-laying tropical coastal areas. El Niño conditions may affect the incidence of infectious diseases, such as malaria. Ocean warming would increase temperature-sensitive toxins produced by phytoplankton, which could cause more frequent contamination of seafood. A clearer understanding on the current role of climate change in disease patterns will be able to improve forecasts of potential future impacts of projected climate change and support action to reduce such impacts.     

中国气候变化的科学新认知

了解和认识百年来中国气候发生的变化、引起其变化的驱动因素以及未来的可能变化,可以更好地适应和减缓气候变化。本文综合评估了观测到的中国气候变化事实、中国气候变化的驱动力、中国未来气候变化预估三大方面,分析了气候变暖的趋势、水循环以及降水和冰川变化、极端天气气候事件变化、生物化学循环、海洋和土地覆盖变化及其气候效应以及未来气候变化的特点和趋势等最新科学进展。在中国百年温度趋势、气候系统多气候指标变化特征、极端天气气候事件中的人类活动作用以及气候系统模拟能力等方面的研究有了新的进展。可以看到中国气候变暖趋势持续、大气二氧化碳等长寿命温室气体浓度继续增长、人为强迫影响了多种气候要素在强度和频率的变化,中国陆地生态系统的固碳量增加。本文最后提出未来中国气候变化研究需要进一步加强的问题,包括:中国气候变化中的城市化效应、气候系统内部变率在年代际变化中的作用、气溶胶-云-降雨相互作用的机理、大范围土地利用变化(如大规模生态恢复工程)的气候效应,以及云辐射反馈、海洋环流对气候变化的响应与反馈、气候-碳循环反馈等过程对气候模拟不确定的影响等。     

土壤与全球环境变化

本文着重论述了“土壤变化”与“全球气候变化”之间的相互作用。土壤圈通过其内部一系列的理化、生化变化及土地利用变化等,产生CO_2、CH_4、N_2O等“温室效应”气体特别是CH_4和N_2O向大气的排放,对“全球气候变化”产生重要的影响,而全球气候变暖又会引起土壤沙漠化、酸化、盐渍化等退化过程的进一步加剧,严重改变人类生存的环境。加强科学宣传,提高全球民众环境意识,加强科学研究与监测,提出相应措施,是适应或改变上述全球变化的重要战略对策。     

Massachusetts v. Environmental Protection Agency: Constructing “Certainty” as Rebuttal

Massachusetts v. Environmental Protection Agency was the first Supreme Court opinion generated specifically as a response to the issue of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, alleging that Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) failure to regulate is leading to environmental harms for plaintiffs. This essay examines the majority opinion of Justice Stevens and his use of presumption and burden of proof, within a logic of problematic integration, to construct “certainty” as a rebuttal to and rejection of the “uncertainty” offered by EPA. I examine how this strategically constructed rebuttal to “uncertainty” functions as a declarative act of “certainty,” advancing a proposition whose scientific, legal, or political acceptance could function as a tipping point away from the claims of “uncertainty” used by opponents on this contentious issue. Because of the court's influence, the implications of their “certainty” extend beyond the case and into the broader discussion of climate change science and environmental communication.     

Evaluating the economic effects of climate change on the European sardine fishery

This study evaluates the economic effects of climate change on one of the most relevant fisheries of the Iberian Peninsula, the European sardine fishery; a fishing ground that is particularly sensitive to environmental impacts. For this, the sea surface temperature is introduced into the problem as an additional variable. This variable allows for the gathering of climate change evidence and its repercussions on the oceans and, consequently, on the marine life and ecosystems. Various plausible scenarios are posed with respect to the trends involving the sea surface temperature. The results show that if the trend of rising surface temperatures continues in the Iberian-Atlantic fishing grounds, both the sardine biomass and the expected profits will noticeably decrease. The biomass and profits will further decrease with greater intensity if the immediate effects of global warming on sea surface temperature become more significant. On the other hand, in a palliation of global warming scenario, both variables decrease to a lesser degree.     

Actively Dealing with Climate Change and Striving to Strengthen the Capability of Sustainable Development

Either from the perspective of the finite supply capacity of global resources and energy,or from the perspective of global environment restrictive conditions,developing countries can not repeat the old development road of developed countries,either in view of the international pressure China is currently facing,or in view of China’s own resources endowment and stages of development,we must actively face such a challenge of climate change.We must recognize that the issue of climate change may be a great restraint to the present and future eco-social development,and may also be an important driving force and new opportunity to push forward the transformation of development pattern,to take a new road of industrialization and to realize sustainable development.This demands us,on the one hand,to take the Scientific Outlook of Development as the guide to make efforts to control the emission of greenhouse gases and continuously increase the capability of adapting to climatic change,and set up the overall plan to respond to climate change of our country,and on the other hand,we should unswervingly take the road of sustainable development,save energy,optimize energy structure and strengthen biological protection in slowing and adapting to climate change.     

Vegetation and climate

Over the last two centuries, man's activities have caused a 30% increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO₂, with continued increases seeming inevitable. This change in CO₂ concentration will act on vegetation, both directly and indirectly through global climatic change. It is well established that, on a global scale, patterns of vegetation and climate are closely correlated. Such correlations indicate that climatic change will cause the distribution of vegetation to change. However, the use of correlations for predicting vegetation responses to climatic change is fundamentally unreliable because correlations have no mechanistic underpinning of causation. This paper outlines a mechanistic model for predicting the equilibrium state between current climate and vegetation. It is also used to indicate the sensitivity of global vegetation to the changed climate associated with a doubled CO₂—greenhouse scenario. The interpretation of this static model is discussed in terms of rates and patterns of vegetation change.     

Influence of global warming on coastal infrastructural instability

The increasing infrastructure instability is an important issue in relation to the influences of global climate change in urban areas. A serious issue pertaining to this is the dual nature of damage triggered by events combined with climate change and natural hazards. For example, catastrophic damage could result from the combination of global warming with a great earthquake, which is a worst-case scenario. Although this worst-case scenario has rarely occurred and presents a low probability of occurrence, countermeasures must be prepared in advance based on an appropriate response and adaptation strategies. After an overview of possible infrastructural instabilities caused by global warming, methodologies are proposed placing emphasis on the increasing probability of infrastructural instability triggered by natural hazards resulting from groundwater-level (GWL) variations. These effects are expected to be particularly serious in coastal regions because of the influence of the rising sea level resulting from global warming. The influence of sea-level rises (SLR) will become apparent along with land subsidence because groundwater abstraction will become severe in coastal regions. Additionally, the probability of earthquake liquefaction increases if GWL rises in accompaniment with SLR. Using case histories, we examined the possible occurrence of these natural hazards as a result of global warming. Finally, possible countermeasures and adaptation strategies for reducing and mitigating infrastructure damage accelerated by global warming are described for each case in specific regions. In particular, special attention should be paid to adaptation strategies in coastal lowlands, which particularly suffer from the effects of land subsidence.