Forest dynamics in Oregon landscapes: evaluation and application of an individual-based model.

The FORCLIM model of forest dynamics was tested against field survey data for its ability to simulate basal area and composition of old forests across broad climatic gradients in western Oregon, USA. The model was also tested for its ability to capture successional trends in ecoregions of the west Cascade Range. It was then applied to simulate present and future (1990-2050) forest landscape dynamics of a watershed in the west Cascades. Various regimes of climate change and harvesting in the watershed were considered in the landscape application. The model was able to capture much of the variation in forest basal area and composition in western Oregon even though temperature and precipitation were the only inputs that were varied among simulated sites. The measured decline in total basal area from tall coastal forests eastward to interior steppe was matched by simulations. Changes in simulated forest dominants also approximated those in the actual data. Simulated abundances of a few minor species did not match actual abundances, however. Subsequent projections of climate change and harvest effects in a west Cascades landscape indicated no change in forest dominance as of 2050. Yet, climate-driven shifts in the distributions of some species were projected. The simulation of both stand-replacing and partial-stand disturbances across western Oregon improved agreement between simulated and actual data. Simulations with fire as an agent of partial disturbance suggested that frequent fires of low severity can alter forest composition and structure as much or more than severe fires at historic frequencies.     

Forest Restoration and Fire: Principles in the Context of Place

Abstract:  There is broad consensus that active management through thinning and fire is urgently needed in many forests of the western United States. This consensus stems from physically based models of fire behavior and substantial empirical evidence. But the types of thinning and fire and where they are applied are the subjects of much debate. We propose that low thinning is the most appropriate type of thinning practice. Treating surface fuels, reducing ladder fuels, and opening overstory canopies generally produce fire-safe forest conditions, but large, fire-resistant trees are also important components of fire-safe forests. The context of place is critical in assigning priority for the limited resources that will be available for restoration treatments. Historical low-severity fire regimes, because of their current high hazards and dominance by fire-resistant species, are the highest priority for treatment. Mixed-severity fire regimes are of intermediate priority, and high-severity fire regimes are of lowest priority. Classification systems based on potential vegetation will help identify these fire regimes at a local scale.     

Restoration of ecosystems for biodiversity and carbon sequestration: Simulating growth dynamics of brigalow vegetation communities in Australia

Restoration of abandoned and degraded ecosystems through enhanced management of mature remnant patches and naturally regenerating (regrowth) forests is currently being used in the recovery of ecosystems for biodiversity protection and carbon sequestration. Knowledge of long-term dynamics of these ecosystems is often very limited. Vegetation models that examine long-term forest growth and succession of uneven aged, mixed-species forest ecosystems are integral to the planning and assessment of the recovery process of biodiversity values and biomass accumulation. This paper examined the use of the Ecosystem Dynamics Simulator (EDS) in projecting growth dynamics of mature remnant brigalow forest communities and recovery process of regrowth brigalow thickets. We used data from 188 long-term monitored plots of remnant and regrowth forests measured between 1963 and 2010. In this study the model was parameterised for 34 tree and shrub species and tested with independent long-term measurements. The model closely approximated actual development trajectories of mature forests and regrowth thickets but some inaccuracies in estimating regeneration through asexual reproduction and mortality were noted as reflected in stem density projections of remnant plots that had a mean of absolute relative bias of 46.2 (±12.4)%. Changes in species composition in remnant forests were projected with a 10% error. Basal area values observed in all remnant plots ranged from 6 to 29 m² ha⁻¹ and EDS projections between 1966 and 2005 (39 years) were 68.2 (±10.9)% of the observed basal area. Projected live aboveground biomass of remnant plots had a mean of 93.5 (±5.9) t ha⁻¹ compared to a mean of 91.3 (±8.0) t ha⁻¹ observed in the plots. In regrowth thicket, the model produced satisfactory projections of tree density (91%), basal area (89%), height (87%) and aboveground biomass (84%) compared to the observed attributes. Basal area and biomass accumulation in 45-year-old regrowth plots was approximately similar to that in remnant forests but recovery of woody understorey was very slow. The model projected that it would take 95 years for the regrowth to thin down to similar densities observed in original or remnant brigalow forests. These results indicated that EDS can produce relatively accurate projections of growth dynamics of brigalow regrowth forests necessary for informing restoration planning and projecting biomass accumulation.     

Fire history and tree recruitment in the Colorado Front Range upper montane zone: implications for forest restoration

Forests experiencing moderate- or mixed-severity fire regimes are presumed to be widespread across the western United States, but few studies have characterized these complex disturbance regimes and their effects on contemporary forest structure. Restoration of pre-fire-suppression open-forest structure to reduce the risk of uncharacteristic stand-replacing fires is a guiding principle in forest management policy, but identifying which forests are clear candidates for restoration remains a challenge. We conducted dendroecological reconstructions of fire history and stand structure at 40 sites in the upper montane zone of the Colorado Front Range (2400-2800 m), sampled in proportion to the distribution of forest types in that zone (50% dominated by ponderosa pine, 28% by lodgepole pine, 12% by aspen, 10% by Douglas-fir). We characterized past fire severity based on remnant criteria at each site in order to assess the effect of fire history on tree establishment patterns, and we also evaluated the influence of fire suppression and climate. We found that 62% of the sites experienced predominantly moderate-severity fire, 38% burned at high severity, and no sites burned exclusively at low severity. The proportion of total tree and sapling establishment was significantly different among equal time periods based on a chi-square test, with highest tree and sapling establishment during the pre-fire-suppression period (1835-1919). Superposed epoch analysis revealed that fires burned during years of extreme drought (95% CI). The major pulse of tree establishment in the upper montane zone occurred during a multidecadal period of extreme drought conditions in the Colorado Front Range (1850-1889), during which 53% of the fires from the 1750-1989 period burned. In the upper montane zone of the Colorado Front Range, historical evidence suggests that these forests are resilient to prolonged periods of severe drought and associated severe fires.     

Reconciling Salvage Logging of Boreal Forests with a Natural-Disturbance Management Model

Abstract:  In North American boreal forests, wildfire is the dominant agent of natural disturbance. A natural-disturbance model has therefore been promoted as an ecologically based approach to forest harvesting in these systems. Given accelerating resource demands, fire competes with harvest for timber, and there is increasing pressure to salvage naturally burned areas. This creates a management paradox: simultaneous promotion of natural disturbance as a guide to sustainability while salvaging forests that have been naturally disturbed. The major drivers of postfire salvage in Canadian boreal forests are societal perceptions, overallocation of forest resources, and economic and policy incentives, and postfire salvage compromises forest sustainability by diminishing the role of fire as a critical, natural process. These factors might be reconciled through consideration of fire in resource allocations and application of active adaptive management. We provide novel treatment of the role of burn severity in mediating biotic response by examining its influence on the amount, type, and distribution of live, postfire residual material, and we highlight the role of fire in shaping spatial and temporal patterns in forest biodiversity. Maintenance of natural postfire forests is a critical component of an ecosystem-based approach to forest management in boreal systems. Nevertheless, present practices focus heavily on expediting removal of timber from burned forests, despite increasing evidence that postfire communities differ markedly from postharvest systems, and there is a mismatch between emerging management models and past management practices. Policies that recognize the critical role of fire in these systems and facilitate enhanced understanding of natural system dynamics in support of development of sustainable management practices are urgently needed.     

Demography of northern flying squirrels informs ecosystem management of western interior forests.

We studied northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus) demography in the eastern Washington Cascade Range to test hypotheses about regional and local abundance patterns and to inform managers of the possible effects of fire and fuels management on flying squirrels. We quantified habitat characteristics and squirrel density, population trends, and demography in three typical forest cover types over a four-year period. We had 2034 captures of flying squirrels over 41 000 trap nights from 1997 through 2000 and marked 879 squirrels for mark-recapture population analysis. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest appeared to be poorer habitat for flying squirrels than young or mature mixed-conifer forest. About 35% fewer individuals were captured in open pine forest than in dry mixed-conifer Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and grand fir (Abies grandis) forests. Home ranges were 85% larger in pine forest (4.6 ha) than in mixed-conifer forests (2.5 ha). Similarly, population density (Huggins estimator) in ponderosa pine forest was half (1.1 squirrels/ha) that of mixed-conifer forest (2.2 squirrels/ha). Tree canopy cover was the single best correlate of squirrel density (r = 0.77), with an apparent threshold of 55% canopy cover separating stands with low- from high-density populations. Pradel estimates of annual recruitment were lower in open pine (0.28) than in young (0.35) and mature (0.37) forest. High recruitment was most strongly associated with high understory plant species richness and truffle biomass. Annual survival rates ranged from 45% to 59% and did not vary among cover types. Survival was most strongly associated with understory species richness and forage lichen biomass. Maximum snow depth had a strong negative effect on survival. Rate of per capita increase showed a density-dependent response. Thinning and prescribed burning in ponderosa pine and dry mixed conifer forests to restore stable fire regimes and forest structure might reduce flying squirrel densities at stand levels by reducing forest canopy, woody debris, and the diversity or biomass of understory plants, truffles, and lichens. Those impacts might be ameliorated by patchy harvesting and the retention of large trees, woody debris, and mistletoe brooms. Negative stand-level impacts would be traded for increased resistance and resilience of dry-forest landscapes to now-common, large-scale stand replacement fires.     

The influence of successional processes and disturbance on the structure of Tsuga canadensis forests

Old-growth forests are valuable sources of ecological, conservation, and management information, yet these ecosystems have received little study in New England, due in large part to their regional scarcity. To increase our understanding of the structures and processes common in these rare forests, we studied the abundance of downed coarse woody debris (CWD) and snags and live-tree size-class distributions in 16 old-growth hemlock forests in western Massachusetts. Old-growth stands were compared with eight adjacent second-growth hemlock forests to gain a better understanding of the structural differences between these two classes of forests resulting from contrasting histories. In addition, we used stand-level dendroecological reconstructions to investigate the linkages between disturbance history and old-growth forest structure using an information-theoretic model selection framework. Old-growth stands exhibit a much higher degree of structural complexity than second-growth forests. In particular, old-growth stands had larger overstory trees and greater volumes of downed coarse woody debris (135.2 vs. 33.2 m3/ha) and snags (21.2 vs. 10.7 m3/ha). Second-growth stands were characterized by either skewed unimodal or reverse-J shaped diameter distributions, while old-growth forests contained bell-shaped, skewed unimodal, rotated sigmoid, and reverse J-shaped distributions. The variation in structural attributes among old-growth stands, particularly the abundance of downed CWD, was closely related to disturbance history. In particular, old-growth stands experiencing moderate levels of canopy disturbance during the last century (1930s and 1980s) had greater accumulations of CWD, highlighting the importance of gap-scale disturbances in shaping the long-term development and structural characteristics of old-growth forests. These findings are important for the development of natural disturbance-based silvicultural systems that may be used to restore important forest characteristics lacking in New England second-growth stands by integrating structural legacies of disturbance (e.g., downed CWD) and resultant tree-size distribution patterns. This silvicultural approach would emulate the often episodic nature of CWD recruitment within old-growth forests.     

Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?

Insect disturbance is often thought to increase fire risk through enhanced fuel loadings, particularly in coniferous forest ecosystems. Yet insect disturbances also affect successional pathways and landscape structure that interact with fire disturbances (and vice-versa) over longer time scales. We applied a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the relative strength of interactions between spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks and fire disturbances in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) in northern Minnesota (USA). Disturbance interactions were evaluated for two different scenarios: presettlement forests and fire regimes vs. contemporary forests and fire regimes. Forest composition under the contemporary scenario trended toward mixtures of deciduous species (primarily Betula papyrifera and Populus spp.) and shade-tolerant conifers (Picea mariana, Abies balsamea, Thuja occidentalis), with disturbances dominated by a combination of budworm defoliation and high-severity fires. The presettlement scenario retained comparatively more "big pines" (i.e., Pinus strobus, P. resinosa) and tamarack (L. laricina), and experienced less budworm disturbance and a comparatively less-severe fire regime. Spruce budworm disturbance decreased area burned and fire severity under both scenarios when averaged across the entire 300-year simulations. Contrary to past research, area burned and fire severity during outbreak decades were each similar to that observed in non-outbreak decades. Our analyses suggest budworm disturbances within forests of the BWCA have a comparatively weak effect on long-term forest composition due to a combination of characteristics. These include strict host specificity, fine-scaled patchiness created by defoliation damage, and advance regeneration of its primary host, balsam fir (A. balsamea) that allows its host to persist despite repeated disturbances. Understanding the nature of the three-way interaction between budworm, fire, and composition has important ramifications for both fire mitigation strategies and ecosystem restoration initiatives. We conclude that budworm disturbance can partially mitigate long-term future fire risk by periodically reducing live ladder fuel within the mixed forest types of the BWCA but will do little to reverse the compositional trends caused in part by reduced fire rotations.     

The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.     

Fungi and wind strongly influence the temporal availability of logs in an old-growth spruce forest.

Coarse woody debris (CWD) is a key habitat for many species in forest ecosystems. To ensure the long-term survival of such species, forest management regimes must include measures that promote dead wood dynamics similar to those of natural forests. Thus, information on CWD dynamics under natural conditions is required, including data pertaining to the underlying agents of disturbance. This study examines modes of mortality, decay rates, and temporal patterns in the availability of Picea abies logs in a Swedish old-growth forest affected by internal, small-scale disturbance. All 684 logs in a 6.6-ha plot were mapped and classified into one of six decay classes. Logs in the early stages of decay were examined for the presence of heart-rot fungi. Six years later all logs were re-inventoried, including newly formed logs. Matrix models based on the transition rates between decay classes showed that it took about 60 years for 90% of the logs to decay beyond class 6 (a deformed trunk with soft wood). Large logs (> 26 cm) decayed 40% more slowly than small logs (< 25 cm). The initial volume of logs was 37.6 m3/ha but increased to 44.8 m3/ha after six years. In addition, there was a large shift in the decay-class distribution. The volume of logs in early and late decay classes increased by 71% and 45%, respectively, while the volume of logs in the intermediate decay classes decreased by 32%. The fluctuations appear to result from pulses in mortality, driven by a combination of strong winds and the heart-rot fungus, Phellinus chrysoloma, which was present in more than 30% of all logs at an early stage of decay. These results show that large temporal fluctuations in dead wood also occur in the absence of large-scale disturbance, and that heart-rot fungi are important factors driving the overall dynamics of dead wood. Since many wood-inhabiting species are naturally rare and have very specific substrate demands, such temporal variability in dead wood availability may have effects on biodiversity and should be taken into account when designing small, protected forest areas.     

Fire and forest landscapes in the Georgia Piedmont: an assessment of spatial modeling assumptions

Landscape simulation models are widely used to study the behavior of ecological systems. As computing power has increased, these models have become more complex and incorporated more realistic spatial representations of landscape patterns and ecological processes. The goal of this research was to examine the sensitivity of simulated landscape patterns to fundamental spatial modeling assumptions. The LANDIS simulator was parameterized for forests of the Georgia Piedmont and used to model landscape-scale community dynamics at fire return intervals from 20 to 100 years. A base scenario incorporating localized seed dispersal along with landform-related variation in species establishment rates and disturbance regimes was contrasted with three alternative scenarios. The uniform habitat scenario applied the same set of species establishment coefficients across all landforms. The uniform dispersal scenario removed the effects of seed source abundance and pattern on species establishment. The uniform disturbance scenario assumed identical disturbance regimes on all landforms.At the shortest fire return intervals, fire severities were low and the stand age distribution was dominated by older forests. At longer fire return intervals, fire severities were high and the stand age distribution was skewed toward younger forests. Species composition generally followed a gradient from fire-resistant species at short fire return intervals to fire-sensitive species at longer fire return intervals. However, some species exhibited bimodal distributions with high abundances at both short and long fire return intervals. Landscape responses to fire were similar in the uniform habitat scenario and the base scenario. Communities were less sensitive to fire return interval and had more fire-sensitive species in the uniform dispersal scenario than in the base scenario. Species composition in the uniform disturbance scenario was similar to the base scenario for the longest fire-intervals, but was more sensitive to changes in the fire regime at shorter fire return intervals. In models of Piedmont forest landscapes, accurate spatial representations of dispersal and fire regime heterogeneity are essential for predicting landscape-scale species composition under changing fire regimes. In contrast, the precise spatial representation of species–habitat relationships may be considerably less important.     

Death Rides the Forest: Perceptions of Fire, Land Use, and Ecological Restoration of Western Forests

Abstract:  Large wild fires occurring in forests, grasslands, and chaparral in the last few years have aroused much public concern. Many have described these events as "catastrophes" that must be prevented through aggressive increases in forest thinning. Yet the real catastrophes are not the fires themselves but those land uses, in concert with fire-suppression policies that have resulted in dramatic alterations to ecosystem structure and composition. The first step in the restoration of biological diversity (forest health) of western landscapes must be to implement changes in those factors that have caused degradation or are preventing recovery. This includes changes in policies and practices that have resulted in the current state of wildland ecosystems. Restoration entails much more than simple structural modifications achieved though mechanical means. Restoration should be undertaken at landscape scales and must allow for the occurrence of dominant ecosystem processes, such as the natural fire regimes achieved through natural and/or prescribed fires at appropriate temporal and spatial scales.     

Ecology of Pacific Yew (Taxus brevifolia) in Western Oregon and Washington

Taxus brevifolia , a subcanopy tree or shrub in forests of the Pacific Northwest, has been harvested intensively in recent years. With management concerns as an impetus, we examined the distribution and population dynamics of Taxus based on data from the mountains of western Oregon and Washington. Surveys of natural forests, long-term studies of forest recovery following logging, and census data on marked trees in forest stands support the hypothesis that Taxus is a widespread but predominantly late-successional species. Sensitive to fire and slow to recover from disturbance on many sites, Taxus attains maximal basal area and adult stem density in old forests. Colonization of Taxus is often slow in potentially suitable habitats. Conservation of Taxus at the landscape level may require large, unmanaged reserves and maintenance of patches of old forest within managed forests. Long rotations (centuries) between harvest events will enhance the long-term viability of the species. Practices designed to accelerate the development of old-growth forest structure will not benefit Taxus and other species requiring long disturbance-free intervals for recovery.     

Modeling the influence of precipitation and nitrogen deposition on forest understory fuel connectivity in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

Climate change models for California's Sierra Nevada predict greater inter-annual variability in precipitation over the next 50 years. These increases in precipitation variability coupled with increases in nitrogen deposition from fossil fuel consumption are likely to result in increased productivity levels and significant increases in forest understory fuel loads. Higher understory plant biomass contributes to fuel connectivity and may increase future fire size and severity in the Sierra Nevada. The objective of this research was to develop and test a model to determine how changing precipitation and nitrogen deposition levels affect shrub and herb biomass production, and to determine how often prescribed fire would be needed to counter increasing fuel loads. Model outputs indicate that under an increasing precipitation scenario significant increases in shrub and herb biomass occur that can be counteracted by decreasing the fire return interval to 10 years. Under a scenario with greater inter-annual variability in precipitation and increased nitrogen deposition, implementing fire treatments at an interval equivalent to the historical range of 15–30 years maintains understory vegetation fuel loads at levels comparable to the control.     

川西亚高山、高山森林土壤微生物生物量和酶活性动态特征

为深入了解川西亚高山/高山森林冬季生态学过程,于2008年11月─2009年10月,在土壤冻结初期、冻结期和融化期及植被生长季节,研究了不同海拔岷江冷杉林（Abies faxoniana）土壤微生物生物量和酶活性动态。各海拔森林土壤在冬季维持着较高的微生物生物量含量和酶活性,并随土壤冻融过程不断变化。土壤有机层和矿质土壤层冬季微生物生物量碳和氮含量及转化酶和尿酶活性均表现出受冻结初期土壤冻融循环影响显著降低,在冻结期变化不明显,在融化期急剧增加至融化后显著降低的趋势,且土壤有机层微生物生物量含量和酶活性在融化期具有一个明显的年高峰值。海拔变化显著影响了土壤酶活性,但对土壤微生物生物量不显著。土壤温度与土壤微生物生物量含量相关显著。这表明季节性冻融期是土壤生态过程的重要时期,土壤冻融格局显著影响川西亚高山/高山森林土壤微生物生物量和酶活性动态。     

Simulating the potential for ecological restoration of dryland forests in Mexico under different disturbance regimes

Examining the potential for ecological restoration is important in areas where anthropogenic disturbance has degraded forest landscapes. However, the conditions under which restoration of degraded tropical dry forests (TDF) might be achieved in practice have not been determined in detail. In this study, we used LANDIS-II, a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics, to assess the potential for passive restoration of TDF through natural regeneration. The model was applied to two Mexican landscapes under six different disturbance regimes, focusing on the impact of fire and cattle grazing on forest cover, structure and composition. Model results identified two main findings. First, tropical dry forests are more resilient to anthropogenic disturbance than expected. Results suggested that under both a scenario of small, infrequent fires and a scenario of large, frequent fires, forest area can increase relatively rapidly. However, forest structure and composition differed markedly between these scenarios. After 400 years, the landscape becomes increasingly occupied by relatively shade-tolerant species under small, infrequent fires, but only species with both relatively high shade tolerance and high fire tolerance can thrive under conditions with large, frequent fires. Second, we demonstrated that different forms of disturbance can interact in unexpected ways. Our projections revealed that when grazing acts in combination with fire, forest cover, structure and composition vary dramatically depending on the frequency and extent of the fires. Results indicated that grazing and fire have a synergistic effect causing a reduction in forest cover greater than the sum of their individual effects. This suggests that passive landscape-scale restoration of TDF is achievable in both Mexican study areas only if grazing is reduced, and fires are carefully managed to reduce their frequency and intensity.     

Thinning and burning result in low-level invasion by nonnative plants but neutral effects on natives.

Many historically fire-adapted forests are now highly susceptible to damage from insects, pathogens, and stand-replacing fires. As a result, managers are employing treatments to reduce fuel loadings and to restore the structure, species, and processes that characterized these forests prior to widespread fire suppression, logging, and grazing. However, the consequences of these activities for understory plant communities are not well understood. We examined the effects of thinning and prescribed fire on plant composition and diversity in Pinus ponderosa forests of eastern Washington (USA). Data on abundance and richness of native and nonnative plants were collected in 70 stands in the Colville, Okanogan, and Wenatchee National Forests. Stands represented one of four treatments: thinning, burning, thinning followed by burning, or control; treatments had been conducted 3-19 years before sampling. Multi-response permutation procedures revealed no significant effect of thinning or burning on understory plant composition. Similarly, there were no significant differences among treatments in cover or richness of native plants. In contrast, nonnative plants showed small, but highly significant, increases in cover and richness in response to both thinning and burning. In the combined treatment, cover of nonnative plants averaged 2% (5% of total plant cover) but did not exceed 7% (16% of total cover) at any site. Cover and richness of nonnative herbs showed small increases with intensity of disturbance and time since treatment. Nonnative plants were significantly less abundant in treated stands than on adjacent roadsides or skid trails, and cover within these potential source areas explained little of the variation in abundance within treated stands. Although thinning and burning may promote invasion of nonnative plants in these forests, our data suggest that their abundance is limited and relatively stable on most sites.     

Climate effects on fire regimes and tree recruitment in Black Hills ponderosa pine forests

Climate influences forest structure through effects on both species demography (recruitment and mortality) and disturbance regimes. Here, I compare multi-century chronologies of regional fire years and tree recruitment from ponderosa pine forests in the Black Hills of southwestern South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming to reconstructions of precipitation and global circulation indices. Regional fire years were affected by droughts and variations in both Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Fires were synchronous with La Ni?as, cool phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and warm phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These quasi-periodic circulation features are associated with drought conditions over much of the western United States. The opposite pattern (El Ni?o, warm PDO, cool AMO) was associated with fewer fires than expected. Regional tree recruitment largely occurred during wet periods in precipitation reconstructions, with the most abundant recruitment coeval with an extended pluvial from the late 1700s to early 1800s. Widespread even-aged cohorts likely were not the result of large crown fires causing overstory mortality, but rather were caused by optimal climate conditions that contributed to synchronous regional recruitment and longer intervals between surface fires. Synchronous recruitment driven by climate is an example of the Moran effect. The presence of abundant fire-scarred trees in multi-aged stands supports a prevailing historical model for ponderosa pine forests in which recurrent surface fires affected heterogenous forest structure, although the Black Hills apparently had a greater range of fire behavior and resulting forest structure over multi-decadal time scales than ponderosa pine forests of the Southwest that burned more often.     

鼎湖山粗死木质残体生物量特征

对鼎湖山季风常绿阔叶林1 hm2永久性样地内粗死木质残体(Coarse woody debris,简称CWD)的生物量、存在形式及分解状态进行研究.结果表明:1)鼎湖山季风常绿阔叶林CWD的生物量为42.09 t hm-2,其中倒木和枯立木分别为32.81 t hm-2、9.28 t hm-2,所占比例分别为77.9%、22.1%.1999~2010年间CWD年均输入量为1.68 t hm-2a-1.2)CWD主要优势树种为锥栗(Castanopsis chinensis)、黄杞(Engelhardtia roxburghiana)和荷木(Schima superba),所占比例分别为54.0%、15.1%和13.9%.3)CWD径级主要分布在30 cm以下,但对CWD生物量贡献最大的径级在30 cm以上.4)CWD的分解状态主要为中度分解状态,占CWD总生物量的61.2%.研究还表明,鼎湖山季风常绿阔叶林的CWD生物量呈逐年增加趋势.图2表3参17     

Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity

Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed feasible only if current and future fire activities are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire activity, so a substitution of fire by forest management could occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. Conceivable management options will likely have to be directed toward minimizing the adverse impacts of the increasing fire activity.