Earlier rice phenology as a result of climate change can increase the risk of cold damage during reproductive growth in northern Japan

The present study analyzed the impact of earlier rice phenology as a result of climate change on the risk of cold damage during reproductive growth using the historical temperature record from 1961 to 2010 at four locations in northern Japan. During this period, heading date has become 0.7-1.9 days earlier per 10 years. Air temperatures during the booting stage (6-15 days before heading) decreased by 0.18 °C per 10 years even though the air temperature on a given calendar date has increased slightly. The estimated potential yield losses caused by cold damage have increased since the start of the study period. Thus, the advance in phonological events as a result of global warming is likely to increase the risk of future yield losses, and this has important implications for future adaptation strategies (breeding new cultivars and changing crop management strategies) to reduce the risk of cold damage.     

Climate change and agricultural technology adoption: the case of drought tolerant maize in rural Nigeria

Climate change is a major problem undermining agricultural production in Africa. Consequently, efforts are being made to provide farmers with adaptation technologies, but little empirical research exists on the determinants of adopting such technologies. This article addresses this research gap, using the case of drought tolerant maize (DTM) technology in Nigeria. With survey data from 200 farm households and econometric techniques, we explore the determinants of whether to invest and how much to invest in adaptation technology by smallholder farmers. Results from the study indicate that among the key determinants of adoption are access to the technology, complementary inputs, extension services, and climate change information. We also show that off-farm income and wealth status of a household play a significant role in adoption, implying capital constraints; hence, it can be difficult for resource-poor farmers to adopt the technology. Moreover, the farmers identified cost of the technology and complementary inputs, particularly fertilizer as major constraints to adoption. We conclude that while the DTM technology is suitable and important in helping smallholder maize farmers to continue to produce under a changing climate, more support is needed for them to invest in the technology and overcome adoption constraints. Necessary interventions include improving access to information about climate change and the available adaptation technology, timely access to the technology and complementary inputs, and improving access to credit, particularly for the resource-poor farm households.     

1990—2009年中国大陆主汛期降水的变化特征及其可能原因

利用我国160个台站1951—2010年逐月降水观测资料,分析了我国1990—2009年夏季（6—8月）降水的变化特征,对其代表性雨型进行了分类,重点分析了1990年代和2000年代主要多雨带的变化特征。此外还分析了1990年代和2000年代的北半球500 hPa大尺度环流背景和气温及海温背景的差异,从而探讨了夏季降水...     

Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S.

This paper examines possible adaptations to climate change in terms of pasture and crop land use and stocking rate in the United States (U.S.). Using Agricultural Census and climate data in a statistical model, we find that as temperature and precipitation increases agricultural commodity producers respond by reducing crop land and increasing pasture land. In addition, cattle stocking rate decreases as the summer Temperature-humidity Index (THI) increases and summer precipitation decreases. Using the statistical model with climate data from four General Circulation Models (GCMs), we project that land use shifts from cropping to grazing and the stocking rate declines, and these adaptations are more pronounced in the central and the southeast regions of the U.S. Controlling for other farm production variables, crop land decreases by 6 % and pasture land increases by 33 % from the baseline. Correspondingly, the associated economic impact due to adaptation is around ?14 and 29 million dollars to crop producers and pasture producers by the end of this century, respectively. The national and regional results have implications for farm programs and subsidy policies.     

Life cycle assessment of milk produced in two smallholder dairy systems in the highlands and the coast of Peru

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was applied to two smallholder milk production systems in Peru in order to evaluate the environmental burden of milk produced in each. An Andean highland milk production system where livestock feeding is restricted to permanent pastures supplemented with on farm grown ryegrass-clover was opposed to a coastal system with dairy cows fed a diet consisting of fodder maize and purchased concentrate. Milk production levels (kg/cow day) differed considerably with 2.57 for the highland and 19.54 for the coastal system. A Life Cycle Inventory was calculated for the functional unit of 1 kg energy corrected milk (ECM) and the environmental impacts global warming, acidification and eutrophication were estimated for 1 kg ECM, 1 ha and 1 animal, considering the multi-functionality of the system. The highland system was characterized by a high land use (23.1 m²a/kg ECM vs. 1.71 m²a/kg ECM at the coast). Irrigation water and energy were on the other hand used to a much higher amount at the coast (7291 l/kg ECM and 8791 MJ/kg ECM, respectively) than in the highlands (848 l/kg ECM and 0.20 MJ/kg ECM). Global warming potential, acidification and eutrophication were higher for 1 kg ECM produced in the highlands than at the coast by 10.6 kg CO₂ equivalents, 6.58 g sulfur dioxide equivalents and 10.63 g phosphate equivalents, respectively. Nevertheless, 5220 kg CO₂ equivalents more were emitted per animal at the coast than in the highlands. Also acidification and eutrophication were estimated to be on average 6 and 4 times higher at the coast compared to the highlands when expressed for the functional units of 1 ha and 1 animal.

Results

Whereas livestock is mainly responsible for impacts on the environment in the highlands, at the coast both livestock related emissions and forage cultivation play an important role. Furthermore CO₂ releases from soybean cultivations heavily contribute to total emissions. Sensitivity analysis indicates that for dairy systems relying on crop by-products as feed the choice of the allocation method is a crucial point in a LCA study. Based on the results of this study, strategies in order to reduce the environmental burden of milk production should focus on an increase of production levels and a reduction of methane emissions from enteric fermentation in the highlands and a modification of the concentrate components replacing soya as the protein source at the coast.     

Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern U.S.: implications for crops, pests, livestock, and farmers

Most prior climate change assessments for U.S. agriculture have focused on major world food crops such as wheat and maize. While useful from a national and global perspective, these results are not particularly relevant to the Northeastern U.S. agriculture economy, which is dominated by dairy milk production, and high-value horticultural crops such as apples (Malus domestica), grapes (Vitis vinifera), sweet corn (Zea mays var. rugosa), cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata), and maple syrup (sugar maple, Acer saccharum). We used statistically downscaled climate projections generated by the HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, run with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change future emissions scenarios A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower), to evaluate several climate thresholds of direct relevance to agriculture in the region. A longer (frost-free) growing season could create new opportunities for farmers with enough capital to take risks on new crops (assuming a market for new crops can be developed). However, our results indicate that many crops will have yield losses associated with increased frequency of high temperature stress, inadequate winter chill period for optimum fruiting in spring, increased pressure from marginally over-wintering and/or invasive weeds, insects, or disease, or other factors. Weeds are likely to benefit more than cash crops from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Projections of thermal heat index values for dairy cows indicate a substantial potential negative impact on milk production. At the higher compared to lower emissions scenario, negative climate change effects will occur sooner, and impact a larger geographic area within the region. Farmer adaptations to climate change will not be cost- or risk-free, and the impact on individual farm families and rural communities will depend on commodity produced, available capital, and timely, accurate climate projections.     

浅析美国的军事与环境

近年来,人们逐渐认识到军事活动引起的环境污染和生态破坏不仅危及当代人也危及子孙后代的健康成长,并关系到政治、社会的稳定及经济的健康发展.总结了美国的主要军事污染源,浅析了美国军方有关环境保护方面的政策和措施,并对美军在环境政策上的两面性进行了探讨.     

Effects of waste recovery on carbon footprint: a case study of the Gulf of Bothnia steel and zinc industries

This article analyses the impact of waste recovery on climate change mitigation on a regional scale. We focus on the EU End of Waste (EoW) policy, which aims at reducing negative impacts on the environment through the minimization of generated waste. At the same time, the EU climate objectives set challenging goals for the industry to lower greenhouse gas emissions. We argue that the goals of these two policies are conflicting: under certain circumstances, the EoW will lead into increased greenhouse gas emissions because of a number of negative feedback effects that function on multiple spatial and temporal scales.To assess the effects of waste recovery on greenhouse gas emissions, we carry out a consequential life-cycle inventory on a proposed industrial ecosystem around the Gulf of Bothnia between Finland and Sweden. The system recovers currently unutilized steelmaking dust and slag from four steel mills in Finland and Sweden and converts them into iron and zinc raw materials in a novel rotary hearth furnace. The recovered iron is led back into the blast furnace of one of the steel mills and zinc is treated in an existing zinc plant. In the European scale, the model system is significant in size, serving thus as a model for integrated EoW and carbon footprint assessments in other similar cases within the EU.The analysis reveals the relative greenhouse gas emissions from raw material extraction and production, heat and power generation, transport and the production process itself, in comparison to the present system with limited material recovery. To test the model viability, we conduct a sensitivity analysis with respect to increasing energy and production capacity. Our analysis shows that from the point of view of a single operator, material recovery may bring noteworthy reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. If the scale of the assessment is expanded beyond the confines of a single plant, however, we find limited potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions through further recovery of steelmaking residues. In conclusion, we provide policy recommendations with which the EoW paradigm can provide better support for climate change mitigation on a regional scale.     

A survey of the implementation status of environmental management systems in U.S. colleges and universities

A census of 925 U.S. colleges and universities offering masters and doctorate degrees was conducted in order to study the number of elements of an environmental management system possessed by small, medium and large institutions. A 30% response rate was received with 273 responses included in the final data analysis. Overall, the number of environmental management system elements implemented among the 273 institutions ranged from 0 to 16, with a median of 12. The proportion of U.S. colleges and universities that reported having implemented a structured, comprehensive environmental management system is discussed. Stratified analyses were performed by institution size, Carnegie Classification and job title.     

Landscape visualisation and climate change: the potential for influencing perceptions and behaviour

The urgent need to mitigate and adapt to climate change is becoming more widely understood in scientific and policy circles, but public awareness lags behind. The potential of visual communication to accelerate social learning and motivate implementation of the substantial policy, technological, and life-style changes needed, has begun to be recognised. In particular, realistic landscape visualisations may offer special advantages in rapidly advancing peoples’ awareness of climate change and possibly affecting behaviour and policy, by bringing certain possible consequences of climate change home to people in a compelling manner. However, few such applications are yet in use, the theoretical basis for the effectiveness of visualisations in this role has not been clearly established, and there are ethical concerns elicited by adopting a persuasive approach which deliberately engages the emotions with visual imagery. These questions and policy implications are discussed in the context of a theoretical framework on the effects of landscape visualisation on a spectrum of responses to climate change information, drawing in part on evidence from other applications of landscape visualisation. The author concludes that the persuasive use of visualisations, together with other approaches, may be effective, is justified, and could be vital in helping communicate climate change effectively, given ethical standards based on disclosure, drama, and defensibility.     

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate climate scenarios for yam production in the sub-humid savannah zone of West Africa

Globally, yam (Dioscorea spp.) is the fifth most important root crop after sweet potatoes (Ipomoea batatas L.) and the second most important crop in Africa in terms of production after cassava (Manihot esculenta L.) and has long been vital to food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Climate change is expected to have its most severe impact on crops in food insecure regions, yet very little is known about impact of climate change on yam productivity. Therefore, we try estimating the effect of climate change on the yam (variety: Florido) yield and evaluating different adaptation strategies to mitigate its effect. Three regional climate models REgional MOdel (REMO), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Regional Climate Model (SMHIRCA), and Hadley Regional Model (HADRM3P) were coupled to a crop growth simulation model namely Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) version 3060 to simulate current and future yam yields in the Upper Ouémé basin (Benin Republic). For the future, substantial yield decreases were estimated varying according to the climate scenario. We explored the advantages of specific adaptation strategies suggesting that changing sowing date may be ineffective in counteracting adverse climatic effects. Late maturing cultivars could be effective in offsetting the adverse impacts. Whereas, by coupling irrigation and fertilizer application with late maturing cultivars, highest increase in the yam productivity could be realized which accounted up to 49 % depending upon the projection of the scenarios analyzed.     

Reliability and input-data induced uncertainty of the EPIC model to estimate climate change impact on sorghum yields in the U.S. Great Plains

Crop simulation models are frequently used to estimate the impact of climate change on crop production. However, few studies have evaluated the model performance in ways that most researchers practiced in climate impact studies. In this article, we examined the reliability of the EPIC model in simulating grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) yields in the U.S. Great Plains under different climate scenarios, namely in years with normal or extreme temperature and precipitation. We also investigated model uncertainties introduced by input data that are not site-specific but commonly used or available for climate change studies. Historical field trial data of sorghum at the Mead Experimental Center, NE, were used for model evaluations. The results showed that overall model reliability was about 56%. The mean absolute relative error (absRE) was about 29%. The degree of accuracy and reliability varied with climate-classes and nitrogen (N)-treatments. The largest bias occurred in drought years (RE = ?25%) and the most unreliable results were found in N-0 treatment (reliability = 32%). There was more than 69% probability that input-data-induced uncertainties were limited to less than 20% of absRE. Our results support the application of the EPIC model to climate change impact studies in the U.S. Great Plains. However, efforts are needed to improve the accuracy in simulating crop responses to extreme water- and nitrogen-stressed conditions.     

Reconciling the supply of and demand for carbon cycle science in the U.S. agricultural sector

When asking the question, “How can institutions design science policies for the benefit of decision makers?” Sarewitz and Pielke [Sarewitz, D., Pielke Jr., R.A., this issue. The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and demand for science. Environ. Sci. Policy 10] posit the idea of “reconciling supply and demand of science” as a conceptual tool for assessment of science programs. We apply the concept to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) carbon cycle science program. By evaluating the information needs of decision makers, or the “demand”, along with the supply of information by the USDA, we can ascertain where matches between supply and demand exist, and where science policies might miss opportunities. We report the results of contextual mapping and of interviews with scientists at the USDA to evaluate the production and use of current agricultural global change research, which has the stated goal of providing “optimal benefit” to decision makers on all levels. We conclude that the USDA possesses formal and informal mechanisms by which scientists evaluate the needs of users, ranging from individual producers to Congress and the President. National-level demands for carbon cycle science evolve as national and international policies are explored. Current carbon cycle science is largely derived from those discussions and thus anticipates the information needs of producers. However, without firm agricultural carbon policies, such information is currently unimportant to producers.     

Climate change and financial adaptation in Africa. Investigating the impact of climate change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance in Malawi

This paper discusses the applicability of crop insurance for the case of Malawi and explores the potential impact of climate change on the viability of the Malawi weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate change-induced variations in rainfall patterns. The analysis is important from a methodological and policy perspective. By combining catastrophe insurance modeling with climate modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility, albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating the effects of climate variability and climate change on the near- and long-term future of microinsurance schemes serving the poor. By providing a model-based estimate of insurance back-up capital necessary to avoid ruin under climate variability and climate change, along with the associated uncertainties and data limitations, this methodology can quantitatively demonstrate the need for financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools against climate-induced insolvency. This is of major concern to donors, NGOs and others supporting these innovative systems, those actually at-risk and insurers providing insurance. A quantitative estimate of the additional burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for poor regions is of interest to organizations funding adaptation. Further, by linking catastrophe modeling to regionalized climate modeling, the analysis identifies key modeling inputs necessary as well as important constraints. We end with a discussion of the opportunities and limits to similar modeling and weather predictability for Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the case of Malawi.

Regulatory effectiveness and the long-run policy horizon: The case of U.S. toxic chemical use

This paper employs state-of-the-art time series analysis to examine the long-run economic and institutional drivers of toxic chemical use behavior in the U.S. Toxic chemicals are classified into growth, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), and kinked-growth chemicals, according to their long-run use trend behavior. Cointegration analysis shows that while some toxic chemicals have been successfully reduced by regulatory efforts, a majority of the toxic chemicals used in commercial products share a long-run equilibrium with national accounts and industrial production, suggesting that toxic chemical use has been largely driven by changes in GDP, industrial production, and private R&D investments, rather than by government regulations. Estimated structural break results indicate that the 1986 Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act, which created the Toxic Release Inventory has had impact on the consumptive use of more poisonous industrial chemicals than command-and-control regulations.     

Mitigation costs,distributional effects,and ancillary benefits of carbon policies in the Nordic countries,the U.K., and Ireland

This paper provides a survey of top-downmodelling analyses of carbon (C) abatementmitigation costs, distributional effectsand ancillary benefits in the Nordiccountries, the U.K. and Ireland. Specialemphasis is placed on the effects ofrevenue recycling and tax exemptions.According to the analyses, modestemissions reductions can be met withoutsubstantial costs for the countriesstudied, and a strong double dividend isfound in some analyses. The gross domesticproduct (GDP) or welfare effects are mostlyin the range of –0.4 and 1.2 percent whenC emissions are reduced by 20–30 per cent.Lowest costs are obtained without taxexemptions and with tax revenues used toreduce distortionary taxes. Ancillarybenefits are mostly in the range35–80/MgC^-1, i.e., about the same order ofmagnitude as the mitigation costs.Distributional effects are mostlyregressive, unless the tax revenues aredistributed in lump-sum fashion with equaltransfers to each household.     

The pollution release and transfer register system in the U.S. and Japan: an analysis of productivity

This study analyzes Total Factor Productivity (TFP), which includes all categories of productivity. Our measure investigates productivity in the context of the provision and dissemination of environmental information policies. We investigated data on the emission of toxic chemical substances for the U.S. and Japanese manufacturing firms, including 386 firms for the period 1999-2007 and 466 firms for the period 2001-2008. The results show that productivity improved in all nine industrial sectors and that pollution levels were high in the U.S. and Japan from 2001 to 2007. In particular, the electronics industry improved rapidly after 2002 in both countries, which may be attributed to the enforcement of RoHS and the REACH directive in Europe. As a result of these stringent policies on toxic chemical emissions, the U.S. and Japanese firms, many of which export to the European market, have strong incentives to reduce their toxic chemical emissions.     

中美两国火电厂NO_X控制政策比较研究

系统地分析了中美两国火电厂NOx的排放现状及排放趋势,以及两国控制火电厂NOx排放的标准及相应的控制政策,在此基础上,总结了美国治理火电厂NOx排放的成功经验,包括政策手段、排放标准、控制目标及控制策略等方面。最后,通过借鉴美国的成功经验,结合中国火电厂目前实施的NOx控制政策,对中国制定火电厂NOx制政策提出了建议。     

Carbon benefits from Amazonian forest reserves: leakage accounting and the value of time

Amazonian forest reserves have significant carbon benefits, but the methodology used for accounting for these benefits will be critical in determining whether the powerful economic force represented by mitigation efforts to slow global warming will be applied to creating these reserves. Opportunities for reserve creation are quickly being lost as new areas are opened to deforestation though highway construction and other developments. Leakage, or the effects that a reserve or other mitigation project provokes outside of the project boundaries, is critical to a proper accounting of net carbon benefits. Protected areas in the Amazon have particularly great potential mitigation benefits over an extended time horizon. Over a 100-year time frame, virtually no unprotected forest is likely to remain, meaning that potential leakages (both leakage to the vicinity of the reserves and that displaced by removing protected areas from the land-grabbing market) should not matter much because any short-term leakage would be “recovered” eventually. The effect of the value attributed to time greatly influences the impact of leakage on benefits credited to reserves. Simple assumptions regarding leakage scenarios illustrate the benefits of reserves and the critical areas where agreement is necessary to make this option a practical component of mitigation efforts. The stakes are too high to allow further delays in reaching agreement on these issues.